Derek Lowe Rumors: Thursday

If Wren wants to be able to be seen in Atlanta, he better sign Lowe and then not drop the ball with Kawakami. Thats about the only thing he can do do try and smooth things over with the city after losing an icon like Smoltz over 3 mil bucks.

If they aren't going to spend a lousy $5 mil for Smoltz because he's "risky" then why the hell were they interested in Burnett, Furcal, and Andruw Jones? The team supposedly has tens of millions of dollars still available to spend. I am not buying that Smoltz was unaffordable because he wanted $5 mil guaranteed instead of $3 mil.

I agree that they should have spent the money to keep smotz because he is the franchise player other than chipper jones. But if you are free agent, towards the end of your career, and it doesn't look like ur going to get a championship anytime soon, then you are going to go to a contender, granted they also guaranteed 5.5 million. I would have done the same. From this the braves need to get bothlowe and kawakami

it kinda seems like smoltz might have had his mind made up at the winter meetings to leave us if the right team came forward. Why else would he have his agent passing out medical reports to every team?

As A Sox fan, I do feel sorry for the Brave fans if Smoltz does sign,here. That would be like Yaz and his last couple of years being moved from us.

I'll have to admitt I was a little upset last night when I first read the blog. (especially since my wife is a rsox fan and she found the post) But I feel a bit better as I see they are meeting with Lowe. He could sign him and Kawakami. The trade for Swisher or Nady, sign Jones, then they may pull out a decent season. Use Jones in left, Swisher or Nady in center. Then if Andruw flakes out switch them to left and use anderson in center. Then we still have a better outfield than last year especially if Frenchy comes around. Then we have a rotation of:

Lowe
Kawakami
Jurjens
Vasquez
Glavine/Campilo/Hanson

I could live with these changes

How can you blame Wren for most of what's happened this winter? He's really done a decent job, he's just had some bad luck and hasn't made a big move.

The Vazquez trade was good. He gave up Flowers, Lillibridge and two low level guys, and I think Vazquez is going to surprise some people. The guy is really quite talented, and while the big game stuff is mostly true, he's still a solid 2/3 starter signed at a reasonable price.

He basically had Furcal signed before Kinzer and Tellem totally screwed over the Braves. Thats not Wren's fault.

He bid 5/80 for Burnett, and somehow someone else bid more. Did you really want to give Burnett more than 5/80? That deal is already scary as hell.

He basically had a Peavy deal, but SD backed out for some reason. Either way, you might be better off, considering Yunel Escobar is a stud.

There are still many corner OF and starters on the market, and I'm sure the Braves add some guys before all is said and done.

Bravesman-

You do realize that Jones is still quite good defensively in center, while Nady really can't play center and Swisher is poor there?

If they bring back Jones, it'll be to play center.

D Lowe or no D Lowe, this team will be lucky to finish third. You can't let Smoltzy walk, you just can't. The Braves owe it to him and to the fans to bring him back. If they supposedly have $30 million to spend, than $5 mil for John wouldn't be a big deal. I've said it all along, Wren is looking to contend in '10, not this year. This offseason jas really been a slap in the face to all Braves fans. Burnett was no big loss, but they should have never given up on Peavy. Why couldn't they have a rotation of Peavy, Lowe, JJ, Smoltz, and Vazquez?? That could have been done for $50 million. That rotation wins the NL east.

He should be more accommodating to the braves. They paid him 14 million last year to play 28 innings. Now he leaves over 2.5 million that he wouldn't get if he got hurt again (8 vs. 5.5 guaranteed)?

At least he isn't going to the Mets like Glavine did.

"How can you blame Wren for most of what's happened this winter? He's really done a decent job, he's just had some bad luck and hasn't made a big move.

I agree. I think Wren has done a really good job in showing he can't be pushed around or bullied. He handled the Peavy talks very well, and sometimes you just have to walk away. Wren did everything he could, and Towers just wouldn't budge, but Wren played the situation wonderfully.

To Vazquez. Sampson Simpson. I stick by my story. Picking up Javy Vazquez will end up one of those really underrated moves that most will mock and laugh at, but by the end of 09, they will be telling you how they saw his resurgence coming all along. AL to NL, Guillen to Cox, launching pad to fair pitchers park can do that for you. Javy has also always had great stuff, still posts great peripherals, and will also be pitching in a more laid back A-town instead of the windy city.

Getting outbid for AJ may have been the best thing that could have happened to him there. I like the signing for the Yankees, they have the funds and if he gets hurt they could find a way to get by. Atl would have a much harder time replacing that sort of production.

I know from a fans perspective it may be frustrating watching things happen while your team stays relatively quiet, hiding out in the background, but sometimes that is good. You want a guy who is going to sit back, analyze all the details and put in the research and not just go running around town shooting first and asking questions later. The Braves are in a great position to win very soon, winning this year should be a secondary goal to building for the future around Schafer, Heyward, Freeman, Hanson, Gorkys, Yunel, KJ, McCann, Frenchie, etc.

Of course this is purely speculation, but I get the idea that if you talked to front office guys around the league, a good deal of them will tell you that Wren has been very impressive thus far, and I don't know how much more you can ask for then what Wren has given to this point. Young, new GM, replacing one of the all time greats, trying to build back up a recently wonderful franchise, and trying to fill some enormous shoes.

As an outsider, I think Wren has been almost perfect. I also think he will continue to learn and get better as time goes on. I think there are a lot of teams out there that after seeing him in action for just a couple of years wouldn't mind having him run their ship.

This is just my two cents, from an outsider who doesn't root for Atlanta. In fact, I hate the Braves as I am a Met fan and they have ripped my heart out for years and years (like Philly has never come close to doing), so I guess take this as you will, but I think Wren has been very impressive.

melonis rex,

Losing Smoltz for a "lousy" $3mm is a punch in the face.

But you have to believe that Wren or Schuerholz saw the medical reports and honestly believed Smoltz was not going to pitch again, or at least not more than a few more starts.

If you could count on him to be an effective regular in the rotation after Memorial Day, then he's a bargain at $5.5mm or even $10 mm.

That's the only reason I figure they let him go.

Melonis Rex-

I totally agree on Wren.

He made a fair offer for Peavy and a fair offer to Burnett.

Neither one worked out, but offering more would have been a mistake.

As you said, at least Wren didn't make any knee jerk reactions. At least he wasn't the one who signed Ibanez and Moyer for $46M, when it likely could have taken closer to $33-35M.

People complaining about Wren are just being impatient and unfair.

The guy has formed an awesome young core, and the minor league is in quite good shape.

Just appreciate that he never traded Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones for a year of Teixeira, Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek.

"Seems like Boras is trying to get a bidding war started between the Mets and Braves. And it looks like his plan is working."

I don't think there will be a real bidding war. Even if the Braves exceed the Mets' current offer slightly, Omar will likely only raise his offer once and that's it. If the Braves want to raise once again, I bet Omar lets Lowe go and then they will move on to Ollie. It's not Omar's style to get into bidding wars, and he let Zito go to the Giants without blinking an eye.

According to reports, there are some in the Mets organization who still prefer Ollie anyway, despite his jekyll and hyde tendencies.

Lowe is a good pitcher but his age is a concern. Both the Braves and Mets have been burnt lately by injured older pitchers so they should be concerned about Lowe on the back end of a 3-4 year contract, if not sooner.

If I was Wren, and this 30 million number being thrown around by some is true, then here is what I do. Look to trade some relief help to the Yankees for Nick Swisher. Maybe Acosta and a low level prospect of two. Take a look at Ben Sheets for a 2/18 kind of deal. It seems low, but there has been no interest in Sheets thus far, and he seems like he would fit really well in Atlanta. Then look at Kawakami, and see if you can lock him in for something like 3/16. Finally, look to trade for Mike Cameron, picking up about 7 million of his salary for 2009. If not Cameron, maybe bring back Andruw, depending on what you would have to pay. Probably would not cost you much at all.

So, with these additions, Swisher (7M), Sheets (9M), Kawakami (5M), and Cameron (7M), that brings Atlanta in at 28 million, which works out if this 30 million number is accurate.

It gives you a 2009 team that looks like this.

SS Yunel Escobar
2B Kelly Johnson
3B Chipper Jones
C Brian McCann
LF Nick Swisher
CF Mike Cameron
RF Frenchie
1B Casey Kotchman

SP Sheets
SP Jurrjens
SP Javy Vazquez
SP Kawakami
SP Campillo/Jojo/Hanson sometime midseason if he continues to impress.

You have Gonzo and Soriano in the back end of the pen, which is very solid. That is a team that could compete right now, without any commitments that could hurt them in the near future (where their focus should be, rather then just trying to win in 09).

"How can you blame Wren for most of what's happened this winter? He's really done a decent job, he's just had some bad luck and hasn't made a big move.

I agree. I think Wren has done a really good job in showing he can't be pushed around or bullied. He handled the Peavy talks very well, and sometimes you just have to walk away. Wren did everything he could, and Towers just wouldn't budge, but Wren played the situation wonderfully.

To Vazquez. Sampson Simpson. I stick by my story. Picking up Javy Vazquez will end up one of those really underrated moves that most will mock and laugh at, but by the end of 09, they will be telling you how they saw his resurgence coming all along. AL to NL, Guillen to Cox, launching pad to fair pitchers park can do that for you. Javy has also always had great stuff, still posts great peripherals, and will also be pitching in a more laid back A-town instead of the windy city.

Getting outbid for AJ may have been the best thing that could have happened to him there. I like the signing for the Yankees, they have the funds and if he gets hurt they could find a way to get by. Atl would have a much harder time replacing that sort of production.

I know from a fans perspective it may be frustrating watching things happen while your team stays relatively quiet, hiding out in the background, but sometimes that is good. You want a guy who is going to sit back, analyze all the details and put in the research and not just go running around town shooting first and asking questions later. The Braves are in a great position to win very soon, winning this year should be a secondary goal to building for the future around Schafer, Heyward, Freeman, Hanson, Gorkys, Yunel, KJ, McCann, Frenchie, etc.

Of course this is purely speculation, but I get the idea that if you talked to front office guys around the league, a good deal of them will tell you that Wren has been very impressive thus far, and I don't know how much more you can ask for then what Wren has given to this point. Young, new GM, replacing one of the all time greats, trying to build back up a recently wonderful franchise, and trying to fill some enormous shoes.

As an outsider, I think Wren has been almost perfect. I also think he will continue to learn and get better as time goes on. I think there are a lot of teams out there that after seeing him in action for just a couple of years wouldn't mind having him run their ship.

This is just my two cents, from an outsider who doesn't root for Atlanta. In fact, I hate the Braves as I am a Met fan and they have ripped my heart out for years and years (like Philly has never come close to doing), so I guess take this as you will, but I think Wren has been very impressive.

I think the disdain for Wren is warranted. He hasn't done anything. He didn't put together the young core that we have. He got lucky Burnett went with the Yanks, Towers was asking too much, and Furcal played us. I feel like Smoltz was risky, but risky not to sign him with his huge fan base (people in the seats). Wren has ver little time to right the ship.

I can't imagine the Nats being a player for Lowe.

im really hoping frank wren could pull this off as it would get some critics off his back. he has been great and all though i think he could have done more than smoltz i still realize there is a chance we could do good next year. if you look at alot of our losses it was because of an unstable bullpen and an unstable rotation. if he stabilizes the rotation the the bullpen is rested more and not over used like it was last year then plust with gonzalez back for a full year and hopefully soriano the back end of the bullpen will be solid.

if he just gets the rotation stabilized and adds a bat whether it be nady or swisher we will be good and a very balanced team that can compete.

please sign Lowe Atlanta.

anywhere but NYM.

"I'm not going to bother quoting a lot of these posts, but a good portion of you guys are being very moronic here."

That's all I needed to read from your post.

Didn't waste my time reading the rest.

"That's"

That's all I needed to read from your post. Didn't waste time reading the rest.

Seriously, The Nationals?? Just go back to the dodgers already.

Just going to be another public embarassment for the Braves.

I'm starting to feel like Randy Quaid in Major Leagues 2, lol.

I'm going to miss Smoltz, and I hate this right now. However if the Braves can sign two pitchers that help for atleast the next 3 years it'll be the right decision.

And nrmaxx88's prediction of Kawakami seems a little low. Uehara got 2 yrs 10 guaranteed with the chance to make another 6, and he is undoubtedly inferior to Kawakami my guess is 3 yr 21Mil is the starting point for Kawakami. Kuroda's 3yr 35M last year could be a good contract to compare, although he wont get that much this year. probably get 3/27

I thought you were more worried about Oliver Perez? Personally, I am torn between which I want, but continue to lean towards Ollie the more this drags out (not that the dragging out has much to do with it, just that it gives me more time to think about it). I'm fine with either one though.

I was worried a week ago you'd get both with the way the market was going. I'd be happy with NEITHER, but know you'll get one. I'd be torn too Perez is inconsistent but kills us so i guess I'd rather you have Lowe than Perez. Lowe is good against us but not as good as Perez.

socompsycho,

When was the last time you saw John Smoltz pitch? The guy WAS the ace on the team. Prior to last season because of injury, he would go deep into games and win with consistency. Please look at the stats to refresh your memory a bit.

Boras people are striking again. Notice every time there is a report on how one team doesnt meet the Boras demands a report pops with another team on serious talks about the player. Hey Boras people are catching up to your games. You may have to find a new way to up the ante.

"Boras people are striking again. Notice every time there is a report on how one team doesnt meet the Boras demands a report pops with another team on serious talks about the player. Hey Boras people are catching up to your games. You may have to find a new way to up the ante."

Really, because it seems to me that the Braves are about to put an offer that tops the Mets 3/$36M offer, which the Mets will then have to respond to by putting in another bid to top that, which will likely be over the 3/$40M limit they set for themselves, so Boras' plan actually seems to working pretty well here.

BTW, who was the last Boras client the Braves signed? I thought they got pissed at Boras after he promised them Maddux wouldn't accept arbitration and then turned around of accepted it anyway or something like that.

Its funny to see the difference between the opinions of unbiased observers and Braves fan when it comes to Wren. As a Braves fan, I think most on here are just getting impatient, and basically looking for the Braves to make a move just for the sake of making a move. Because of the depth of the FA class and the current state of the economy, the Braves are really in a pretty good situation right now. They are one of the few teams with plenty of money left to spend, and there are plenty of FA stil available that are probably starting to get a little antsy about not having a contract. Sounds like the perfect recipe for the Braves to pick up a couple good short term deals.

At this point, the Braves will likely not be in contention next season, but that's not the worst thing in the world as long as they keep their farm system intact and don't get locked into a bad deal with a free agent. If they make the right pickups they could still contend if all their young guys take a big step forward. If not, then we haven't hurt are chances of contending from 2010 on with the great prospects we'll have and plenty of money left to spend.

As A Sox fan, I do feel sorry for the Brave fans if Smoltz does sign,here. That would be like Yaz and his last couple of years being moved from us.

Posted by: Cyyoung | January 08, 2009 at 09:13 AM

Speaking of Yaz, I downloaded and watched the '78 AL East playoff game between the Sox and Yanks last night with Bucky f**king Dent, haha. iTunes has some cool ball games to download.

"He's gonna be a met"

Considering the Mets offer and their misguided belief that Garland could be an acceptable alternative, I wouldn't be shocked if Atlanta offered a 3/45M offer with a good buyout on a 4th year to make it worthwhile for Lowe.

But right now as it is, the Mets and the Braves are in the same boat. A very thin starting rotation. At least the Mets bullpen looks like they could salvage some of it. Between the Mets and Braves... I'd be shocked if they didn't sign all 3 of Lowe, Wolf, and Perez.

If a starter had an ERA of 4.25, does anyone here think that's worth 3/$45?

"Its funny to see the difference between the opinions of unbiased observers and Braves fan when it comes to Wren."

I'm more amused by how most of major criticism towards Wren came after the failure to sign Smoltz. Everyone except Braves fans thought the Vasquez deal was nothing special, Braves fans start talking like they got an ace. Mind you it was a great sell high on Flowers, but Vasquez is nothing special.

Overall Wren has been just ok as a GM. Was the Renteria deal his? If so, it was a great sell high. On the other hand the Devine/Kotsay deal was a bad sell low and it was salvaged by getting a high risk high reward prospect. I still think he sold low on Tex. And as for not signing Burnett this offseason... good move. So as I said. Ok, nothing special.

BraveNewWorld,

I've been a Braves fan since the '69 playoff run and always will be one. Smoltz is a guaranteed HOF, probably first ballot.

He also had his shoulder rebuilt in the offseason. And he's in his 40s. His competitiveness can't be measured, but his ability to pitch again is very much up in the air.

It sucks that the Braves would be outbid by a couple of million for his services, but they must believe he's not going to pitch again, or not for more than a few appearances, or otherwise they would have matched the Sox's offer.

If he can make 10-15 quality starts, he'd be a bargain at $10mm. That's why I think he's probably finished.

I really don't feel like adding Lowe would make up for the loss of Smoltz. This is still pretty shocking. If healthy Smoltz is far more dominant.

When is Smoltz projected to begin pitching this season?

"I wouldn't say that they're in the same boat at all, unless the only point being made is that neither have 5 starters under contract."

The point was thin starting staff. The Mets have Santana (definite ace, new pen could push him into the 20 win range), Pelfry (a repeat year is needed to call him solid), Maine (who's endurance is a question mark... his splits suggest a guy you wouldn't want on the mound for the last 2 months of the season), then do you really hand a full season off to Niese. As I said, thin. Mets really need 2 more starters, one with at least a #3 arm capacity.

Well according to a report i read the reason the Braves are still so skeptical is because his shoulder is apparently being held together by five anchors.

Granted he could come back and be a great pitcher i am not to sure about how his shoulder will respond to pitching every 5 days deep into games with 5 anchors holding everything together.

as i said before if the Braves can get another arm and another bat they will compete this year.

everyone is talking about rotations of the mets and braves when teams in the NL east need to worry about the marlins rotation which out of Bobby Cox's mouth was said to be the best in the NL east.

all im saying is that because we lost smoltz its not the end of the world. even alot of fans on here were penciling him in as a 5th starter possibility because there was never any guarantee that he would come back the same.

me personally i think FW should take that 7mil that they had put aside that was stated not in the assesed 40 mil and give it to another arm. i wouldnt be to mad at having a wolf/garland type preferablly wolf just because he is a lefty and it would balance out our rotation but Garland wouldnt be to bad as well

that gives you

Lowe
Vazquez
Jair
Garland/Wolf
5th starter - Campillo, Morton, Reyes or Hanson if he is ready

thats a solid rotation and its an upgrade over last years

Hudson
Jair
Campillo

then the 4th and 5th starter were filled by whoever bobby cox liked that day whether it was Jeff Bennett, Morton, Reyes, or James Parr. With solid starters this team will be better and with the veteran prescence of Lowe and Vazquez this teams young pitchers will also be better.

The offense last year wasnt the greatest but it also wasnt the worst. just give us a consistent bat to put in the middle of the line up and we are good. then if frenchy bounces back we are even better not to mention kotchman hitting like he did at the end of the season.

The Braves will be ok IF Frank Wren is able to land another couple of solid arms and a bat

"The Tex trade was not"

The second one was his. Honestly I think the return was awful.

Chipper Jones has it in him to be a very good manager some day

Don't know where the Chipper comment came from, but I doubt he becomes a manager, seeing as he has all the money he will ever need. But after his kids are grown, maybe when he's 55 plus I could see him being a great manager just for the fun of it..

"The second one was his. Honestly I think the return was awful."

Totally agree.

He may have been a half season rental, but Wren really failed to land the type of talent that he should've when trading an elite player.

Kotchman can hit some and his glove at first is really good, but he really doesn't appear to have the power or patience to be a great everyday first baseman.

He started off last season flashing some really nice power, but then suddenly it tailed off and he was a pretty subpar hitter the rest of the season.

Unless he can develop better patience (he did walk 18 times while striking out just 16 times in 152 at bats in Atlanta), or hits for more power, he'll never be a good everyday guy.

And Marek isn't anything special.

The Braves REALLY should have persued Kendry Morales in talks rather than Kotchman, with better pitching going to Atlanta in order to supplement the difference.

Morales and Adenhart would've been a far better haul than Kotchman and Marek.

"The problem with the second Tex trade is that it is judged by the first. "

I agree. The first trade was horrible. The second trade was great.

Marek will easily be up in '09. Let's equate him to the supplemental draft pick.

So, you have 3 years of Kotchman for a first round draft pick. Kotchman is worth a LOT more than the draft pick. And, giving up on Kotchman b/c of that down second half is about as dumb as giving up on Swisher. Baseball players are human beings. No amount of money takes away the grief over the loss/suffering of a loved one. None. Seriously.

The half season of Teixeira is irrelevant, as the Braves weren't going to contend with or without Teix.

I think the chipper comment came from the update saying that chipper put in a call to lowe to recruit.

plus not to mention he seems to be a pretty even keeled guy. he has been in the game for awhile at a very successful level and usually that signals a possible good career as a manager

I think i would take Nady just because he is a better bet to have a solid year.

"Let me ask this, who would you rather take Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady?"

Swisher and its a no-brainer.

1. Contract status. He's signed through multiple years. Nady is a FA after '09.

2. Nady and Swisher both had fluke years in '08. Nady is bound to decline, and Swisher is bound to improve.

3. When looking at career numbers, Swisher is better both offensively and defensively than Nady. Take into account what park Swisher played in.

I would also. I don't know why people would take swisher because he has never had a avg. over 270 and never hit more than 25 hr in a season. FOr that you could get adam dunn who will give you at least 30 hrs and at least 90 rbis and batting the same as swisher. Nady averages 25 to 30 hrs and 80 to 100 rbis. His average stays around the 290s to 300s. He is a better pick up

""Let me ask this, who would you rather take Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady?"

Swisher and its a no-brainer.

1. Contract status. He's signed through multiple years. Nady is a FA after '09.

2. Nady and Swisher both had fluke years in '08. Nady is bound to decline, and Swisher is bound to improve.

3. When looking at career numbers, Swisher is better both offensively and defensively than Nady. Take into account what park Swisher played in."

No doubt. That's why it is insane to me Yankee fans would prefer keeping Nady. Swisher is younger, better, and switch hits. He is affordable for 3 years. Xavier Nady is a league average player with some versatility, a streaky bat, and some raw power. He is a solid player and has some value. He is repped by Scott Boras, coming off a career year, and is hitting free agency next year.

Brian Cashman heisted Nick Swisher away for the Yankees but who cares because he batted .219 last year right?

I agree with scribbletone that it was a bad trade, my biggest problem with the Tex trade is he had another 3 or 4 days to shop him. But I don't think K.Morales and Adenhart would be any better. Atleast this way we have a proven 1B. Morales doesn't excite, and Adenhart's stock is down.

I a normal year I agree Swisher's contract makes him a better option, but Nady's production is of much greater value. I know a lot of people that say a walk is as good as a hit, sure if there is no one on third. I'll take Nady's average, next years FA class has a ton of righty LFs in it Holiday, Nady, Bay. If Frenchy doesn't bounce back we sign one of them and plan on Heyward in RF. No use committing to 22M of Swisher and blocking prospects, when Nady can most likely be had cheaper.