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Perrotto's Latest: Top 20 Remaining Free Agents

John Perrotto's latest Every Given Sunday column at Baseball Prospectus takes a look at the top 20 remaining free agents (sorted by WARP3 - Wins Above Replacement Player) and offers destination predictions and top suitors (or lack thereof in some cases) for each one. For those without a BP subscription, here's a quick summary:

  • Manny Ramirez - Dodgers
  • Orlando Cabrera - Athletics
  • Derek Lowe - Braves/Mets/Cubs
  • Adam Dunn - Nationals
  • Bobby Abreu - Reds
  • Ben Sheets - Rangers
  • Orlando Hudson - Nationals
  • Andy Pettitte - Astros (at less than $10MM)
  • Jason Varitek - Red Sox (at less than $10MM)
  • Ty Wigginton - Astros
  • Ivan Rodriguez - Not much of a market, may have to take a minor-league deal with an invite to Spring Training if he's not signed soon. Could he end up involuntarily retired, a la Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Mike Piazza?
  • Kevin Millar - Orioles
  • Mark Grudzielanek - Padres
  • Braden Looper - Brewers
  • Garret Anderson, Eric Hinske, Ray Durham, Jim Edmonds, Paul Byrd, Odalis Perez - All of them (with the exception of Byrd, who may retire) are drawing little to no interest and may be without a club on Opening Day.


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Comments

No Oliver perez? That list is a joke.

Steve,

Great list. I realize that Randy Wolf isn't much of a pitcher and IMO FA either, but he should probably be in this list.

varitek is on the same sinking boat as pudge. if pudge goes nowhere, neither will varitek. the red sox will end up with montero or salty, the only way varitek comes back with the red sox now (or any team for that matter) is if he signs a 1 years 3 million dollar deal

i think the yanks should trade nady for whoever and sign manny to a 1 or 2 year deal or do whatever possible does any body think anything like that could happen

Awesome postseason so far...it wil be very interesting to see how everything shakes out as spring training approaces.

pudge and tek better than oliver perez? ollie is gonna make more this year than those 2 combined

SkiBolton,

It's sorted by WARP3... I agree it seems odd to have Odalis Perez on there over Oliver Perez, but Odalis actually had a better WARP (4.0) than Oliver (3.4) in 2008.

Personally, I think Oliver Perez is about as overrated as they come in MLB today, but I do agree - I found it surprising to not see him on the list.

Hudson and dunn to the nats pinch me i must be dreaming.

Wiggy back to the Astros? No Perez or Garland?

Apearently, the Nats are gonna make some noise...

It's the Yankees and their whatever money can buy payroll...Anything can happen. I would hate to face a lineup that would consist of:
Damon
Jeter
Tex
A-Rod
Manny
Cano
Nady/Swisher
Posada
Melky
Especially when they also have the pitching to win 1 run ballgames. Other than Melky, every guy has a chance of hitting .300 and will see better pitches b/c of who is batting behind them.

^^
Agreed

Forget my last post i didnt realize it was sorted by WARP, which is a pretty reliable stat.

Where's Oliver Perez?

i'm excited about this new chapter in baseball history where players who are way past their prime are involuntarily retired. Piazza, Pudge, Tek, Anderson etc. were all solid in their days, but I'm glad teams have adopted the new approach of going with younger, cheaper guys to fill DH type roles. There's no need to get mediocre production out of an aging star when a Minor leaguer can put up comparable numbers for much less $.

With dj26

Oliver Perez = not that good of a pitcher. League average. Very eratic. Not sure why any team would waste a draft pick plus 3/$30M (or more) on him.

I'd like to know this guys thought process regarding Pettitte and Wigginton.

As an Astros fan, I'd love to see them both back in Houston. But when Wade continues to talk about how there is no money to sign anyone, I just don't understand how he came to this prediction.

Braves fan, most experts, or even most baseball people in general, feel protection is very overrated.

The Mets would be stupid if they didn't offer Pudge a minor league deal.

i'm excited about this new chapter in baseball history where players who are way past their prime are involuntarily retired. Piazza, Pudge, Tek, Anderson etc. were all solid in their days, but I'm glad teams have adopted the new approach of going with younger, cheaper guys to fill DH type roles. There's no need to get mediocre production out of an aging star when a Minor leaguer can put up comparable numbers for much less $.

Posted by: murphballs5 | January 11, 2009 at 02:34 PM


It is good to see AL teams using their DH to it's maximum potential: Great hitters instead of old hitters at the end of their careers.

I think most teams would be stupid if they didnt offer pudge a minor league deal.

I would like the Rays to sign Juan Cruz/Will Ohman/Joe Beimel/Dennys Reyes and hold Percival at gun point, forcing him to retire. That would be awesome.

My guess on Ray Durham would be White Sox. He's insurance if Lillibridge/Getz can't hit at all/falter. He also would make a decent bench bat.

I'd think that KW would be hesitant to go into the season with weak hitters at two positions (2B and CF).

The retirement would be voluntary- surely there is a team that would be willing to pay the league minimum for a veteran. It's their egos that are getting in the way.

I would like the Rays to sign Juan Cruz/Will Ohman/Joe Beimel/Dennys Reyes and hold Percival at gun point, forcing him to retire. That would be awesome."

The "voluntary" retirement part is pure gold.

I don't see the point of the Rays spending on a LOOGY (Ohman, Beimel).

The big question mark with the Rays and Juan Cruz is whether the Rays have the funds left after the Burrell signing, and whether Friedman is willing to sacrifice that draft pick. My read on the Cruz market is that the draft pick cost is going to heavily diminish the market and drive his price down. I don't think he gets more than Affeldt did (remember, Affeldt is also a lefty who can get guys out from both sides of the plate). I think whoever is willing to give up the first rounder gets Cruz at a VERY great bargain price, unless a team that wouldn't have to surrender their 1st rounder to sign Cruz enters the bidding.

It's Nix/Getz, I doubt Lillibridge will be factor, at least I sincerely hope not. I could see a Durham return though.

I have a feeling though that KW will sign 2 of these 3 following older guys: Pedro, Vizquel, I-Rod.

Why is Millar rumored with the Orioles? Supposedly there have been no conversations with the Orioles..other than Millar calling up the Os manager and saying he'd like to come back. Pretty one-sided to be a rumor, if you ask me.

The guy I really want is Hudson but there are many reasons that wont happen.

1) We will lose the pick
2) He is still out of our price range
3) Rays love Aki
4) Finally, we love to build from within, watch Brignac play 2B in AAA all of 2009

Millar is rumored back to Baltimore as a bench player making little more than the league minimum, Basemonkey.

RaysFan-

No, I don't think Brignac plays 2B. You don't move a good defensive SS to 2B, you just don't.

What you will see is Aybar grooming to be the full time 2B, possibly spelling Aki at the position once in a while in '09, with Aki possibly traded after the '09 offseason (option picked up, then traded). I don't think the Rays have a love affair with Aki.

Brignac will be the starting SS in AAA, and if he's ready after the '09 season, Bartlett will be traded.

But then this is me trying to read Friedman's mind, and I don't have much of ESP powers.

Hahahahahaha...no Ollie on the list. That'll shut up the Lowe-haters.

There was a day when aging players realized that it was over and just voluntarily hung it up. Today, the money is so excessive that players who, in their heart know it's time to go, decide to try to milk one more year out of the system. You can't blame them but the economic downturn came at a bad time for these "hanger-on-ers".

"Bobby Abreu (6.2): His options keep shrinking, and it now looks like the Reds may become his new club, though they would prefer a right-handed hitting outfielder over a lefty swinger."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=8411

Taveras CF
Keppinger/Hairston SS
Votto 1b
Abreu LF
Bruce RF
Phillips 2b
Encarnacion 3b
Hernandez C

I can live with that

I agree with redhawk, I like that Reds lineup. even though it is lefty heavy in the middle, both Abreu and Votto have good splits against LH pitching. It also puts high OBP guys in Abreu and Votto in front of Bruce, hopefully giving him a chance to drive in more runs.

You can't argue with a 6-8 of Phillips, Encarnacion, Hernandez. Could be a very dangerous linuep in GABP. Now if the pitching staff can just hold up.

Abreu will end up being the most disappointed player once this offseason is over. His salary will probably be cut in half.

im curious, why had Pudge's stock fallen so far so fast? i just gleamed at his numbers from last year, and they look pretty decent. is he just asking for too much money at his age?

I think Eric Hinske will get picked up by the Rays again. They could use a 4th OF just in case Crawford goes down again. I could see Garret Anderson in Texas.

Well the Braves are slightly better than they were a week ago but still a lot of work to do.

1) Sign either Lowe (no more than 3 years) or Sheets (no more than 2 years).
2) Sign Dunn to a 1 year deal with a team option if possible
3) Sign Juan Cruz

If they do those 3 things, I think we at least have a shot. With Lowe/Vazquez/Jurrjens/Kawakami and then either Morton (or Campillo) we have a solid rotation. No 1 but 3 possible 2's and a wild card in Kawakami who will more than likely be better than your league average 4 (as would Morton in my opinion).

Then our pen would have Campillo (spot starter), Reyes (long relief/mopup), Acosta, Boyer, Boone, Soriano, Cruz and Gonzalez. I'd like to have another lefty but I don't think I'd like 3 in the pen (even though there aren't any in the rotation so maybe it wouldn't be a horrible idea). Perhaps Soriano or Cruz could close instead letting Gonzalez be our primary lefty with Boone taking a role similar to a LOGGY.

Lineup is still weak but Dunn adds a serious power/OBP thread in the middle of the lineup. The lineup is very lefty heavy but it's the best option at this point unless we can trade pitching + a spare OF for Swisher or Nady but that seems unlikely.

That should be "serious power threat"

Funny how the person writing this article totally glossed over the fact that the Nats management specifically said they werent going after any big name FA's.

I really, REALLY want the A's to sign Adam Dunn. Giambi+Holliday are only here for one year, sign Dunn up for long term power. He can play both corners and 1B and guarantees 35+ HR. Its a real weird offseason where the most dangerous hitters are undervalued, you would think 900+ OPS guys like Dunn would be getting 5 /100 deals but instead they are going to be going on the cheap.

I cant stop thinking about how deadly a lineup with Holliday-Dunn-Giambi-Cust would be.....

I like Orlando Cabrera to the A's. That's really the hole they really need filled.

No idea why the Nats would be pursuing Dunn. They have 6 servicable OFs. Maybe they'd try him at 1B (?). He's probably better off in Atlanta's LF. Sure, those strikeouts happen too often, but 100 RBIs? You're very welcome in Atlanta.

Also, I feel like Grudzielanek is very underappreciated. The Padres could use him, but why even bother. They look to be completely hopeless this year. Who else really needs a 2B? White Sox?

With Abreu:
Reds 08 vs 09
C: Ross vs Hernandez:Hernandez
1B:Votto one year older
2B:Phillips again
SS:Kepp vs Hair/Gonzo:Hairston
3B:EE again
LF:Dunn vs Abreu:Abreu
CF:Patterson vs Taveras:Taveras
RF:Griffey Jr. vs Bruce:Bruce
Walt could slowly have had a great offseason if he tops it off with an Abreu signing. If the pitching staff does what it's expected to, they could legitimately be considered the 2nd best team in the Central.

Why not over pudge like 1-4 million? better than an "invite to Spring Training"
He's still good
good enough for 200-300ab if not start

Manny will not go the Yankees

Grizzlyfox,

Abreu would be a great pickup and should mash in GAB.

You have to wonder if Jocketty would do it. I mean, what GM would make signing Taveras a priority and then go after Abreu? Yes, they can run, but other than that they're completely different kinds of players.

if they don't sign abreu (or some form of a serious power threat even if it is dunn back) than they fall to 5th or 6th and they are a worse team than last year and WJ should be hung

Grizzlyfox-

I think the 2nd best team in the central is possible, but not likely. And Dunn will be more productive than Abreu next season.

Tavares
Abreu
Votto
Encarnacion
Bruce
Phillips
Kepp/Gonzales
Hernandez

pretty darn good to be honest..EE could be upgraded but its pretty darn good

I think we just gotta get Manny and trade nady and swisher to the giants for winn and alderson so we can just own the sox.

C. Posada, Bard: POSADA
1B. Texeira, Youkilis: TEX!
2B. Pedroia, Cano: Pedroia
3B. Rodriguez, Lowell: A-ROD
SS. Jeter, Lowrie: JETER
LF. Damon, Bay: Bay, but very close
CF. Winn, Ellsbury: WINN, and jackson long term over Ellsubry
RF. Drew, Swisher: Tie. swish isn't a sure thing to hit the dl, but he also hit .219 last year.
DH. Manny, Ortiz: MANNY. just look the his dodgers stats to see how good he can be.

And we all know the rotation of sabathia, a.j., wang, joba and hughes is going to be unreal.

thats four aces and a number two.

wow. you are dumb.

wow. you sicken me. i hate you.

But it doesnt matter if your team doesnt gel, having a good team on paper is only like 10% of the battle.

And no way is Jeter a better SS than Lowrir in 2009, quit livin in the past man!

Certainly throwing the "ace" label around easily. Burnett is not an ace, Wang is not an ace, Joba hasn't proven he can be an ace all season long and it's sort of laughable that you just assume Hughes will put up league average #2 numbers. Your lineup is sick but it should be when you spend 200 mill a year on your team but you are grossly over exaggerating your rotation.

CC = ace
Burnett = solid #2, even he says he isn't an ace and doesn't want that responsibility
Joba = solid #2 with potential to be a #1
Wang = I think solid #3 but I wouldn't argue if you think he is a 2
Hughes = a complete wild card

The Yankees definitely don't have four aces and a number two.

They have an ace in Sabathia, a number two in Burnett, a number three in Wang, a number young guy with 1/2 stuff and possible durability issues, and a young 3/4.

The Red Sox have an ace in Beckett, two number 2's in Lester and Matsuzaka (with Lester being close to an ace), a solid 4 in Wakefield, a wlid card who could be anything from a 2 to nothing in Penny, same with Smoltz, and same with Buchholz.

It's close but I think I like Boston's pitching better.

I dont see know why they list the Astros for Ty Wiggington or Andy Pettitte. They signed Aaron Boone to replace wiggington, and they wont go for pettitte, if they cannot sign Wiggy for 7 million which he gives more "bang for the buck" then pettitte who will put up a 4+ ERA, which you will get a 4-5 era from backe for cheaper

i dont think matsuzaka is number 2 material. he could be considered if he maxed out his potential but last yr was horrendous. it was one the most amazing seasons to see a guy who should of won 10 games win 18. matsuzaka before the questtech era would be a num 2 easily, not today. wakefield is not a num 4 anymore and im not sold the littlest bit on bucholtz

Dodgers need to get Manny signed, and sign Andy Pettitte. I do not understand why we are looking at guys like Braden Looper and Randy Wolf (both more likely to throw less than 150 than over 200) and Jon Garland (a guy who wouldn't be a great addition, let alone a veteran addition), and not at a guy like Andy Pettitte.

Pettitte fits the Dodgers' rotation perfectly, is a lefty, can mentor Kershaw a little, is familiar with a lot of the Dodgers' coaching staff, would all but guarantee us 200IP, and would be moving to the NL West where he could find good success.

Plus he wouldn't be much more expensive than Jon Garland anyways.

Cabrera would be a marginal upgrade over Bobby Crosby, but the upgrade would not be worth the draft pick, let alone the likely price tag.

I still would like to see the Yanks get someone better for CF than Gardner or Melky. I wouldn't mind seeing Edmonds as a stopgap for a year, for a very cheap price.

Why in the hell would the Giants make a trade of Winn and Alderson for Swisher and Nady??? Do you even follow anything that happens outside of your own little Yankee world? And then while you included Swisher in the deal to the Giants, you plug him into your RF comparisons...You are dumb!!!

Edmunds will probably retire anyway. No shame in leaving on a high note. He had a pretty good comeback season with Chicago, but he's getting old. As for Lowe, is there any actual fact behind the Cubs being a suitor for him? If they can't manage to lure Peavy, a rotation of Zambrano,Lilly,Harden,Dempster and Lowe would be pretty intimidating.

Yanksdynasty...

Burnett is an ace? Since when? The guy can't throw 200 innings to save his life, and even in his "great" 2008... his ERA was over four.

Burnett's never been consistent enough to be an ace, and I don't think anyone would be surprised to watch him crumble in New York.

Well, except blind Yanks fans who think he's an ace because you shelled out $82 million for a #2 starter (at best).

And here I thought the Bombers would learn from Carl Pavano...

They finally get all the bad contracts off the books, and then go out and bring in a whole new crop of them.

Can't wait till Sabathia gains 15 pounds and turns into Mo Vaughn, while Tex slowly turns into Todd Helton 2.0 and Burnett watches on his couch from home with his shoulder in a sling.

Everyone said AJ Burnett was an ACE before he signed with the Yankees, now that he is with them his stock dropped to being a #2-3 type pitcher? I dont think so. When this guy is healthy he has some of the best stuff in baseball. Its funny when he was going to sign with the Braves he was considered their ACE and last year many were saying if Halladay went down he could step in and be the ACE but now that he's a Yankee he isn't? Doesn't make sense to me. AJ Burnett has some of the nastiest stuff i have ever seen and his potential with the Yankees is through the roof. I think he is an ACE if healthy.

Everybody just drop what YanksDynasty said, he is a 14 year old biased kid and has put that list up on numerous threads.

Eric Hinske gets no love. It's sad that the guy can't buy a break even after the season he had last year for Tampa Bay. There should be a bench gig/platoon situation out there for him.

"im curious, why had Pudge's stock fallen so far so fast?"

Probably has something to do with his .580 OPS for the Yankees, declining defensive skills, and the fact that he's 37.

Rolling{Night}Hawk{09}

Having great stuff does not make you a Ace. He never posted a Ace season, now that hes a Yankee why would you think hes going to that?

Having great stuff doesn't make one an Ace but it does allow someone to have a great season and last year Burnett did just that with a 18 win season. I think he will have a good-solid season with the Yankees (15 wins) and somewhere near 200-210 k's if he stays healthy. His ERA should be somewhere near last season. If so he is destined to have a good season for the Yankees. But what i don't understand how people consider Derek Lowe an Ace but those same people say AJ Burnett is better but yet he isn't an Ace? Correct me if i am wrong but that doesn't make sense it either has to be one way or the other.

Neither Burnett or Lowe is an Ace, but at least Lowe has been consistent over the past 3 years.

i would like the reds lineup with bobby instant 3rd in central 2 more pitching moves and the nl east beating on each other poss wildcard?

Burnett won 18 games and had an ERA over 4.00 with just a 2.6:1 K:BB ratio...

Aside from his K-rate, Burnett put up a similar season to someone like Nick Blackburn.

He's not an ace. Never has been. He might have ace stuff, but he doesn't throw the ball over the plate consistently enough or stay healthy enough to ever show that potential.

Burnett's probably the most overrated free agent this offseason (along with Oliver Perez).

The Yankees would've been better off saving money and signing Sheets to a two-year deal. Same injury risk, younger, less money, much better pitcher.

If the yankees sign Manny I'm done watching American League baseball. To the guy talking about how AJ could be an ace if he's healthy, well he has a history of not being healthy. I hope that he pitches 75 innings for the yankees and then gets hurt. He's been around a .500 pitcher for his career except for this contract year. No one thinks that Lowe is an ace, he's a decent number 3 and solid 4 starter. I think he'd be a good fit for the cubs if we fail to get peavy. On an unrelated note, does anyone know what kind of contract garland is looking for?

The reason people were calling Burnett an Ace, is the fact that he would have been deemed an "Ace" if he signed with the Braves. The guy is a great pitcher, when he wants to be or when healthy, but he's not an Ace yet. When I think of past Ace pitchers, I think of Maddux, Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, Orel Hershiser, Roger "Inject Me" Clemens, guys who were consider some of the best of all time.

YanksDynasty. Terrible. I ughh..terrible. I dont even know how to react to that. Ill take the Indians over this team anyday.
With guys like Jake Taylor, Roger Dorn, Pedro Cerrano and Willie Mays Hayes. A pitching duo of Eddie Harris and Rick Vaughn. Lights OUT!!! The skipper Lou Brown?!?! Hed coach circles around Girardi.

@YankeeDynasty
okay so you take Posada coming off an arm injury that cost him most of 2007. Okay Josh Bard aint no Joe Mauer but if the soxs dont resign or go get another contract then we can deal with JB.

At first base how can you say that Tek is so much better then the Person who finished Thrid in the MVP Votes last year its not true Youk is a very good ball player

Pedroia is a blow out canidate over Cano.

A-Rod on paper is steps ahead but if he goes down which is possible with anyone who do they have

Jeter is like a 1000 year vet and J-Low is a rookie i think Lowrie given an entire year could be better then Jeter. Dont get me wrong Jeter will prob be better but im say there is that chance.

Bay over Damon hands down Bay is younger fast better fielder better arm and he is quicker

Winn??? over Jacoby You wont get winn and you will be stuck with Nick Swisher in Centerfield. That is a Push

As is right field with Drew-Matsui

Your DH will prob be Nady and ill take Ortiz over him 8 out of 10 Times.

So its a little closer then you thing there dont start crowning them champs just yet

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