MLB Rumors - MLB Trade Rumors
Subscribe to MLB Trade Rumors using RSS
Home     Contact     About     Advertise     Archives     Widget     Twitter      RSS Usage

« Danks Discusses Extension Offer | Main | Gary Matthews Jr. Wants Playing Time »

Brewers Peavy Rumor Shot Down

TUESDAY, 8:01am: This rumor died a quick death.  Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel talked to Brewers GM Doug Melvin, who said there's nothing to the rumor and he hasn't talked to the Padres.

MONDAY, 9:34pm: According to Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Brewers "are now said to be interested in Jake Peavy."  Peavy's agent Barry Axelrod said, "I haven't been asked about the Brewers, although we've heard there was some interest before that didn't come to fruition."

It's possible that this rumor stems only from the speculation of Brewers third baseman Bill HallESPN's Peter Gammons wrote on Sunday: "Hall believes the Brewers will be in on Peavy, when and if he goes on the market."  I haven't seen any recent articles actually reporting talks between the two teams.  Still, the speculation is logical.


Comments

The Brewers seem like a good match. They could get a deal done around Escobar.

yeah right, it will never happen.

Any deal starts with Jeffries IMO.

Jake still has a no-trade clause. I'm guessing he's not going to waive unless the Brewers are looking to contend. If they're not doing much better than the Padres before the deadline, why would he leave SoCal just to lose in Milwaukee?

"Jake still has a no-trade clause. I'm guessing he's not going to waive unless the Brewers are looking to contend. If they're not doing much better than the Padres before the deadline, why would he leave SoCal just to lose in Milwaukee?"

The Brewers are one ace away from contending.

Peavy is that ace. Milwaukee wouldn't be giving up any pieces from the major league level for Peavy. It would be all prospects. Peavy makes that team the NL Central favorites.

"yeah right, it will never happen."

Eventually even Manny was traded. Brewers have a desperate need to have a staff ace and prospects that are attractive enough to make even the most untouchable players touchable.

Though considering the rising costs of some of their players, I'm not sure the Brewers can afford Peavy and other escalating costs. Plus, I thought they were zealous about keeping Gamel and Escobar. As strange as it sounds, and depending on the development of Gamel, what about a 3 way deal? Fielder to an unknown team, prospects from unknown team to the Pads along with a good rather than elite prospect from the Brewers, and Peavy to the Brewers. A lot of midlevel teams could use Fielder's relatively cheap power for a few years in exchange for someone elite.

Wow! First time I thought about this. The Brewers could for sure put an interesting package together. If the Padres do this now though will they completely alienate their fans at a time when ticket sales are going to be down?
What would it take?
My guess Escobar, Gamel, and Parra.

Gamel to the Padres makes no sense.

The Padres are stacked at 1B with Blanks and Adrian Gonzalez. Gamel is a 1Bman.

I see Escobar, Jeffries, and a 3rd prospect I can't think of.

Gamel to the Padres makes no sense.

The Padres are stacked at 1B with Blanks and Adrian Gonzalez. Gamel is a 1Bman.

I see Escobar, Jeffries, and a 3rd prospect I can't think of.

"My guess Escobar, Gamel, and Parra."

No speculated offer has even come close to that. If the Pads asked for Escobar and Gamel in the same deal the Brewers will hang up. Both are considered elite prospects.

"Gamel is a 1Bman."

Actually he's 3B, the talk of him moving to first has only be hinging on whether or not Fielder is even traded.

". As strange as it sounds, and depending on the development of Gamel, what about a 3 way deal? Fielder to an unknown team, prospects from unknown team to the Pads along with a good rather than elite prospect from the Brewers, and Peavy to the Brewers. A lot of midlevel teams could use Fielder's relatively cheap power for a few years in exchange for someone elite."

Angels would make a great 3 way deal. Do something with two of Wood, Walden, and Adenhart.

". As strange as it sounds, and depending on the development of Gamel, what about a 3 way deal? Fielder to an unknown team, prospects from unknown team to the Pads along with a good rather than elite prospect from the Brewers, and Peavy to the Brewers. A lot of midlevel teams could use Fielder's relatively cheap power for a few years in exchange for someone elite."

Angels would make a great 3 way deal. Do something with two of Wood, Walden, and Adenhart.

"The Brewers are one ace away from contending."

Hm, aren't they all? The Brewers had two aces last year and still fell short. Besides, if they're in the basement when the trade is proposed they're not going to look very appealing to Jake for waiving the NTC.

melonis rex were you smoking crack before you said the brewers with peavy would be the favorite in the central?
Because the cubs are the favorites for sure in the central even with the brewers further depleating their farm 4 peavy.
remember last year sabathia cost them very very dearly for a 3 month rental from the farm.
peavy would not approve the trade to a loser heck the cardinals may even be ahead of the brewers come oct 1
peavy will be a cub or a padrae only

"The Brewers had two aces last year and still fell short."

Falling short and contending are two different things. They will contend with Peavy (just as they have been contenders for a few seasons) but will still fall short.

1 cubs 96 wins
2 astros 86 wins
3 cards 84 wins
4 brewers 83 wins
top 4 in the NL central in 09

"peavy will be a cub or a padrae only"

I'm guessing you're a Cubs fan. If the Brewers get seriously, they'll easily out distance any Cub offer. A lot of systems are rating Gamel and Escobar higher than Vitters as a prospect. And from the last I heard, the new Cubs management isn't interested in adding Peavy.

1 cubs 96 wins
2 astros 86 wins
3 cards 84 wins
4 brewers 83 wins
top 4 in the NL central in 09

____________________________________________________________

Joke right? The astros wont come even close to 86 wins. Sure they have some hitters in Berkman, Lee, Pence, etc. but who are their pitchers outside of Oswalt? Hampton is your #2 right? As a braves fan, take my word he isnt relible for anything but another injury by sneezing or wipeing his rear end.

And is 83 wins for Milwaukee with peavy or not? Cause if that's with peavy why make the trade and if that's without peavy that prediction is worse then the Astros. Without peavy that team is looking at MAYBE 75 wins, but probably more like 65-70.

Peavy wont be moved 2 weeks before the season and he probably wont be dealt before the deadline either.

Sorry if im ranting but as a Braves fan im kinda sick of the Peavy rumors.

There's only one word that come to mind when I read this article: speculation. I'm pretty sure every team is interested in Peavy. Just because you have interest in someone doesn't mean there's anything closely resembling internal dialogue going on. Nothing is going to happen. This is un-newsworthy speculation.

And lets please not do Vitters vs. Flowers or Vitters vs. Escobar or Vitters vs. anyone, we've played that to death.

It wouldnt take that much for peavy. Come on people I am pretty sure I heard a rumor the padres want to start the trade with jj hardy. Which actually makes sense if esobar is really the next jose reyes like pele are making him out to be but I would think a package of hardy and some prospects and maybe even gywnn jr could get the deal done not sure what level prospects but hey we definitly have way more than the cubs have to offer. I think if it is going to happen it happens after the first month if one of our starters goes down and escobar is hitting well enough to warrant a call up.

If Peavy gets traded before the deadline it will be a contender... the Cubs have already said they will have payroll flexibility mid season. only the Cubs, BoSox, or Angels will get him (not in that order)... the Sox put some money in free agent pitching, the Angels are trying to get Lackey long term... and yes wearing purple... the Cubs new ownership does want to add the money, go back and look from about a week ago...

peavy will be a CUB if they want him and especially IF new pads owner want to move him 4 more futre prospects
OTHER THAN THAT PEAVYS NTC will veto any trade

so dream on the cubs win the central by slightly less than last year 96 wins

damn, its a real shame that that the pads/dodgers cant match up. the dodgers would love to have him and have prospects that could be 'expendiable' because they have vets or older kids ahead of them that arent going anywhere. a deal could be built aroung lambo and dejesus jr, etc. But, those two will never lock up with a trade because that pads dont want to face peavy for 5 yrs and the dodgers will never give up Kershaw, Billz, or Kemp to a divison rival.

The cubs i have no problem with. i think the cardinals could even hit 85 wins IF they can get production out of 3B and their pitchers are healthy. But no way the astros or brewers get close to the .500 win % with their current clubs

Nelson T Craig. I think you nailed the package. I like a Gwynn Jr. and a J.J. Hardy in there. Then you add 2 pitching prospects/mlb ready arms and you've got your fill-in-the-blank Peavy package. They're all the same, a young middle infielder, a young AAAA outfielder, and 2 pitching prospects/mlb ready arms. And trust me, as a Braves fan, I am very used to putting together Peavy trade packages. Maybe the Braves could get in on it by acquiring Matt Gamel and providing the 2 pitching prospects.

Nelson T Craig. I think you nailed the package. I like a Gwynn Jr. and a J.J. Hardy in there. Then you add 2 pitching prospects/mlb ready arms and you've got your fill-in-the-blank Peavy package. They're all the same, a young middle infielder, a young AAAA outfielder, and 2 pitching prospects/mlb ready arms. And trust me, as a Braves fan, I am very used to putting together Peavy trade packages. Maybe the Braves could get in on it by acquiring Matt Gamel and providing the 2 pitching prospects.

First off would Peavy waive his NTC to go to the Brewers? I think he would but being a Cubs fan living in Wisconsin I see a lot of Brewers games and ect. and I don't see the Brewers doing this. Their offer would blow the Cubs out of the water but why would the Brewers trade some of their best up and coming kids for a pitcher with a huge contract and might walk when he gets to free agency. I also think JJ would go before Escobar...that's just me I guess.
Melonis rex...I do think Brewers pitching is underrated but I think their is a lot of questions in their bullpen(especially how spring has gone for some of them) to be the favorites with Peavy. Not that the Cubs pen is made of gold but i'm just saying.

ps i dont think Peavy is a cub either

the brewers gain nothing gaining peavy over hardy long term and short term

The first thing that I thought of when I read this was recently on a Cubs broadcast, Bob Brenly stated that players would start completely false Spring Training rumors by just saying some ridiculous trade in the locker room. Sounds like a fabrication by Bill Hall for a laugh.

Probably. Though he didn't even start a rumor, he just said his organization would be in on Peavy if he ever became available. Reporters love to overblow this type of thing.

Probably. Though he didn't even start a rumor, he just said his organization would be in on Peavy if he ever became available. Reporters love to overblow this type of thing.

looks like haudricourt is just bitching at one of the jsonline bloggers over this and he says he talked to melvin and there is nothing brewing, But that doesn't mean the crew has no interest. I am sure if the right deal were to present itself it could happen. This doesnt mean they wont talk about it in the future it just means they havent discussed it yet.

For Melonis Rex and anyone else who may have forgotten, the Padres want at least:
1- a ML pitcher
2- a ML ready position player
3- a ML Ready pitcher
+ at least 1-2 more top level prospects

Peavy will not be cheap.

Any trade would START with Alcides Escobar and would also include a good young ML starter (Gallardo?) and a top pitching prospect like Jeffress.

Remember that the Padres turned down an offer from the Braves that included 2 ML ready pitchers and a ML SS and a top OF prospect.

wait, wasnt peavy already traded to the cubs?

brian giles, too right?

Ok guys get your reading glasses on and grab a beer... The stuff below was posted by a Gunsnascar. I'm going to break them down one by one so this isn't a huge long post here we go...

melonis rex were you smoking crack before you said the brewers with peavy would be the favorite in the central?
Because the cubs are the favorites for sure in the central even with the brewers further depleating their farm 4 peavy.
remember last year sabathia cost them very very dearly for a 3 month rental from the farm.
peavy would not approve the trade to a loser heck the cardinals may even be ahead of the brewers come oct 1
peavy will be a cub or a padrae only

Posted by: gunsnascar | March 24, 2009 at 10:53 PM


I'm not saying the Brewers will be the favorites if they got Peavy, but how could one of your points be they depleted their farm system so they won't be. That has nothing to do with winning a division and if we go by that, the Brewers should finish higher then the Cubs since their farm system is alot better then the Cubs... even with the trade for Sabathia. They still have plenty to get Peavy and alot more then the Cubs have. I'm not saying the Cubs don't have enough to get him or won't trade for him. I'm just saying if you want to compare farm systems the Brewers is still alot better then the Cubs. While Peavy probably wouldn't approve a trade to a loser, he's probably going to be on a loser as it is. I still think what will end up happening is there will be a team (contender) that has a starter go down and will make a trade for Peavy, and I do think Peavy will approve it.

Wasn't the trade Jo-Jo Reyes, Blaine Boyer, Yunel Escobar, and Gorkys Hernandez? J. J. Hardy, Tony Gwynn Jr., and 2 pitching prospects/ MLB arms would be about that.

1 cubs 96 wins
2 astros 86 wins
3 cards 84 wins
4 brewers 83 wins
top 4 in the NL central in 09

Posted by: gunsnascar | March 24, 2009 at 11:03 PM

so dream on the cubs win the central by slightly less than last year 96 wins

Posted by: gunsnascar | March 24, 2009 at 11:40 PM


Before I go any further, is there any way I can get the winning lotto numbers for tomorrow? You seem like you know everything and can even see into the future. Also could you tell me what the White Sox record will be this year (I'm expecting some rant about how they suck and an insult of two thrown my way), I have season tickets, but if you're predicting anything less then 85 wins you can really help me out cause I'll start selling some of my games now instead of waiting

Hmm... definitely very interesting. I'm sure Peavy would approve of a trade to the Brewers but I'm not sold that this move alone would put them over the edge. Brewers would no doubt be at least closing in on 87-88 wins but they still need another solid SP or two.

I know everyone's saying that getting Sabathia last year didn't win them the W.S. but IMO Peavy is ways better than Sabathia and also they only had Sabathia for 2 months. Imagine what a year of Peavy can get. Still, throw in a solid #3 type pitcher and then maybe they can contend against the Cubs.

peavy will be a CUB if they want him and especially IF new pads owner want to move him 4 more futre prospects
OTHER THAN THAT PEAVYS NTC will veto any trade

Posted by: gunsnascar | March 24, 2009 at 11:39 PM

You're wrong
Actually on March 9th Peavy said he would approve a trade to the Red Sox when he was on MLB radio. While I have my doubts as to whether they, If the Brewers really are serious about Peavy and the Red Sox want to go after him... that would officially put the cubs third out of those teams in terms of the offer they could make...For anyone like me that believes the Brewers offer would blow the cubs offer out of the water...wait till you see what the red sox could offer... they have young starting pitching and plenty of it. Right now their #1 ranked prospect (Bucholz is not considered a prospect at this point by BA) is a 1B. If the Padres really wanted to go young, maximize their return, this would open the door for them to trade Adrian Gonzalez if they wished

Nelson t Craig,

You are being sarcastic right?
The Padres are going to take on a player that already has 4 years of ML Service and is making $4.65 million for 2009 and looking at HUGE increase for 2010?

No WAY are the Padres willing to take on Hardy. And T Gwynn Jr may be available for free since he is out of options. So why would they trade for him?

If the prospect is good enough, like Vitters from the Cubs or Gorky Hernandez, the Padres have demonstrated they are willing to take a prospect that is a few years away from the ML, but other than a pitcher like Sean Marshall, they have shown absolutely no willingness to take on expensive players that they could not control for 4-5-6 years before free agency.

If the Brewers do not involve a 3rd team to get a trade for Peavy done it would take a 5 for 1 package that included:
Escobar
Parra/Gallardo
Jeffress
+ a couple of prospects

There are several teams in need of a 1B and Fielder is a valuable commodity, so they may be able to grab a couple of top prospects to send to the Padres for him.

With Morales ready to take over at 1B I dont think the Angels are one of those teams.

the brewers gain nothing gaining peavy over hardy long term and short term

Posted by: gunsnascar | March 24, 2009 at 11:54 PM


I try to be respectful of everyone's opinion and also unbiased with mine regardless of which team it is about, but this is one of the stupidest things I've seen in here in awhile... Hardy is a ss, Peavy is a #1 pitcher... if you ask any GM in baseball, I guarentee you they would take the ace over the ss. This isn't based on a need basis (like we have alot of starting pitching and no other ss) it's just based on would you rather have an ace pitcher or ss who is a good player, but a I would say not even a top 10 ss in baseball..couple that with the brewers having a top ss prospect who is probably close to major league ready and it even sounds more dumb...

I still tend to think the Brewers won't go after Peavy, but who knows maybe you don't make the playoffs for 26 years and then make it again and decide you want to do whatever you can do to get back... I do believe Peavy wants to go to a winner, and he defitely makes the Brewers a viable contender if he is there along with Gallardo.. They still need to get their bullpen straightend out. The other thing Peavy would maybe think about is long term, the Brewers set up alot better then the Cubs... Most of the Brewers impact guys like Braun, Hart, Gallardo, and not close to FA while the cubs guys like soriano, lee, are older and may break down or their production may drop. I think that might've already happend with Lee, but I know he broke his wrist in 06 or 07 so maybe he has a chance to rebound if he's totally healthy

Nelson,

I agree with everything you said except there is no way the Brewers would include Gallardo. I'm not sure they'd have to include Parra to be honest, but I think Gallardo would definitely not be in it.He's an ace. Even without Gallardo in there, the deal you said is enough to get Peavy

the brewers gain nothing gaining peavy over hardy long term and short term

Posted by: gunsnascar | March 24, 2009 at 11:54 PM


I try to be respectful of everyone's opinion and also unbiased with mine regardless of which team it is about, but this is one of the stupidest things I've seen in here in awhile... Hardy is a ss, Peavy is a #1 pitcher... if you ask any GM in baseball, I guarentee you they would take the ace over the ss. This isn't based on a need basis (like we have alot of starting pitching and no other ss) it's just based on would you rather have an ace pitcher or ss who is a good player, but a I would say not even a top 10 ss in baseball..couple that with the brewers having a top ss prospect who is probably close to major league ready and it even sounds more dumb...

I still tend to think the Brewers won't go after Peavy, but who knows maybe you don't make the playoffs for 26 years and then make it again and decide you want to do whatever you can do to get back... I do believe Peavy wants to go to a winner, and he defitely makes the Brewers a viable contender if he is there along with Gallardo.. They still need to get their bullpen straightend out. The other thing Peavy would maybe think about is long term, the Brewers set up alot better then the Cubs... Most of the Brewers impact guys like Braun, Hart, Gallardo,and many of the Brewers impact guys are younger and heading into their prime and not close to FA while the cubs guys like soriano, lee, are older and may break down or their production may drop. I think that might've already happend with Lee, but I know he broke his wrist in 06 or 07 so maybe he has a chance to rebound if he's totally healthy

I would like to know if the Brewers would be able to add $15M to next years payroll and even more in the following years. This would put their payroll far beyound where it has ever been and they have a lot of young talent that will be in for a big pay day over the next few years as well. To me if the Brewers can add that kind of money thats a HUGE statment.

As far as payroll questions, Peavey would draw a huge crowd like CC and probably make back his own cost.

As far as prospects, Gallardo, Parra and Jeffress are untouchable. Plus look at the package thrown together for CC. It didn't take that much prospect potential to get him and he's at the same level, maybe a little lower than Peavy.

I'd say Escobar, Odorizzi, Taylor Green and Cole Gillespie. In that you get a major league ready/close to prospect and clear up some future infield problems, a high end pitching prospect. Good all around 3b prospect with average project ability and good corner infielder for high end pitching. That covers when Giles leaves, future pitching and when the infield opens up.

Also, I believe I read that earlier in the year Melvin inquired and Peavy said his not trade clause wouldn't be waved to go to Milwaukee. Maybe getting Hoffman and not trading Cameron could do them some favors, but I don't think one year to be with old friends would really entice him to come to Milwaukee unless they assure to be in more free agency competitions.

As far as that trade goes, the Padres could like Hardy in instead of Escobar, get some good play from him for a year and flip him later for some more prospects. Maybe an extra outfielder, the Brewers have a surplus of outfield depth in the minors and could add in a good speed/power guy. But I don't think the Padres could coax the Brewers away from Jeffress and Parra or both Gamel and Escobar.

If this doesn't work out, I'm calling right now, the Brewers are in a similar position to last year and fork out for Roy Halladay. But I've been wrong before...

"As far as prospects, Gallardo, Parra and Jeffress are untouchable. Plus look at the package thrown together for CC. It didn't take that much prospect potential to get him and he's at the same level, maybe a little lower than Peavy."

It would take considerably more to get Peavy than CC because the Padres have leverage the Indians didn't. If the Brewers don't meet their asking price the Padres can just keep letting him pitch for them. The Brewers paid for 2 months with CC, they would be paying for 3 years with Peavy. Who do you think would require more?

Oh and...

"If this doesn't work out, I'm calling right now, the Brewers are in a similar position to last year and fork out for Roy Halladay. But I've been wrong before..."


It would take the Jays moving the contracts of Vernon Wells, Scott Rolen AND Rios before they decided to even THINK about needing to move Halladay who, once again, is NOT a free agent at the end of the year.

BrewCrewBlue...I agree with you on Roy Halladay. He will be on the Brewers list this summer. I also want to know about Jeffress? Correct me if im wrong but hasnt he had some issues off the field as well as struggled on the field at times. Yes I know he has a lot of talent but at this stage is he really good trade bait? Again I could be thinking of someone else. Also

Alright a couple of points about this:

1. Peavy said that he would way the merits of any deal presented, meaning there is no longer a list that applies to this discussion. He said that he would be open to other teams if they were in contention, and had the resources to stay in contention.
2. Any deal can not have a major effect on the team at the ML level. One of the reasons the Braves package didnt work was Peavy was worried about the Braves defense without Escobar.
3. Any deal for Peavy will come either at the deadline this year or next offseason.
4. Pitching, Pitching and more pitching is the target. With at least one of the arms rated as possible top of the rotation.
5. The Padres will want players then can control for 5+ years.
6. Possible other targets include Middle Infielders and a CF.

The Padres have two third baseman right now in Kouz and Headley with Darnell in the system. The top prospect is Blanks a 1st Baseman and Adrian is entrenched at the major league level. Blanks may or may not convert to LF (and according to scouts has the ability to do so, its just a question of to what to degree). Not to mention Decker/Kulbacki/Hunter as some of the best prospects in the system. (I know that you are going to say that the other players are upgrades but as a whole its not a major need in the system)

We all believe that this is just speculation then at least have an idea what is desired by both clubs. Peavy, this years Roberts, and as a Padres fan I am not happy about that.

the brewers gain nothing gaining peavy over hardy long term and short term

Posted by: gunsnascar | March 24, 2009 at 11:54 PM


I try to be respectful of everyone's opinion and also unbiased with mine regardless of which team it is about, but this is one of the stupidest things I've seen in here in awhile... Hardy is a ss, Peavy is a #1 pitcher... if you ask any GM in baseball, I guarentee you they would take the ace over the ss. This isn't based on a need basis (like we have alot of starting pitching and no other ss) it's just based on would you rather have an ace pitcher or ss who is a good player, but a I would say not even a top 10 ss in baseball..couple that with the brewers having a top ss prospect who is probably close to major league ready and it even sounds more dumb...

I still tend to think the Brewers won't go after Peavy, but who knows maybe you don't make the playoffs for 26 years and then make it again and decide you want to do whatever you can do to get back... I do believe Peavy wants to go to a winner, and he defitely makes the Brewers a viable contender if he is there along with Gallardo.. They still need to get their bullpen straightend out. The other thing Peavy would maybe think about is long term, the Brewers set up alot better then the Cubs... Most of the Brewers impact guys like Braun, Hart, Gallardo,and many of the Brewers impact guys are younger and heading into their prime and not close to FA while the cubs guys like soriano, lee, are older and may break down or their production may drop. I think that might've already happend with Lee, but I know he broke his wrist in 06 or 07 so maybe he has a chance to rebound if he's totally healthy

Posted by: xxgochisox09 | March 25, 2009 at 01:59 AM


....xxgochisox09, I hardly ever post, but your lack of understanding for baseball actually drove me to post, maybe to educate you and maybe to vent.

Jake Peavy is not as good as J.J. Hardy.

In 2007 and 2008 combined, one of these players was worth 9.4 wins and one was worth 9 wins, the latter being Peavy.

J.J. Hardy is projected to be worth ~5 wins next season at a much cheaper price than Peavy's ~3.5-4 win projection.

The only way you could argue for peavy is that he is controlled for more years, but he is so expensive in those years that he really isn't a highly advantageous contract to possess, and given aging and uncertainty it is more likely he becomes a bad contract than a good one.

Also, J.J. Hardy is easily a top 10 shortstop, do a little research.

And your claim that GMs prefer an ace to a SS is totally baseless. To your credit, Kenny Williams might agree, but 20+ GMs probably wouldn't.

"Jake Peavy is not as good as J.J. Hardy."

In Milwaukee, people might think that. Everywhere else, most will say a multiple time All-Star, Cy Young, K title and ERA title winner is a better player than JJ Hardy, who was selected to the AS game once as a reserve.

Hardy may be a top 10 SS, but Peavy is a top 5 pitcher. On average, aces are worth much more on the FA market than starting shortstops. I really don't see how you can make any claim that your previous statement is right.

"3. Any deal for Peavy will come either at the deadline this year or next offseason.
4. Pitching, Pitching and more pitching is the target. With at least one of the arms rated as possible top of the rotation.
5. The Padres will want players then can control for 5+ years.
6. Possible other targets include Middle Infielders and a CF."

That sounds right. Also, I really think that with the new ownership coming in Peavy is a piece they'll look to keep and build around. It will definitely have to take something pretty significant to make them reconsider.

Finally, after the departure of Trevor Hoffman (which was a blow for a lot of fans), I'm pretty sure trading Peavy is really the last thing they want to do as far as attendance is concerned.

You're already looking at a team that is rebuilding and headed for a 4th place finish at best in a weak division, all of this in a weak economy, and you're going to get rid of the only player likely to attract crowds? I don't think it's something they'll consider at the start of the season. If they're 20 games behind at the deadline and attendance is low anyways, they may, but even then it's unlikely.

Brewers are the 2nd best team in the NL Central already.

They lost 2 'aces' but they got Gallardo healthy again and added Looper. They are still an 85 win team or so.

The Astros will be lucky to be .500 assuming everything goes right, their rotation is miserable.

Let's not shy away from the truth here folks. The Cubs have EVEN LESS to trade for Peavy now than they did 3 months age. With busts like Cedano, Hill, and Pie gone, the Pads are not going to go scrounging around for A level or B-prospects for an ace. Aside from Vitters, the Cubs have NOTHING of value.

According to Peavy's agent and the Pads GM, Peavy has made it clear if he is traded it will be to the Cubs. He likes SD and is not hurry to leave.

He still has a no trade clause and will only be traded if he wants to be traded. I imagine in addition to the prospects SD wants, Peavy will want an extension or the no trade clause extended. In other words a trade for Peavy will be expensive unless it is a place he wants to go.

I don't think he will be traded.

"It would take the Jays moving the contracts of Vernon Wells, Scott Rolen AND Rios before they decided to even THINK about needing to move Halladay who, once again, is NOT a free agent at the end of the year."

Except Rolen and Wells are unmovable at this point and I'm not sure they'd deal Rios before Halladay.

"Hardy may be a top 10 SS, but Peavy is a top 5 pitcher."

I'd love Peavy in Chicago and I think he's a great pitcher, but after seeing what PETCO does to pitchers who leave (and enter) I'm not quite sure we can call him a top 5 pitcher once he leaves San Diego with certainty. His value is certainly higher than Hardy's, but I think Hardy is MUCH better than Yunel who was a player that was the centerpiece of a possible Braves deal. Haven't read through the thread yet, but I'd think Towers would be more interested in Alcides.

"Let's not shy away from the truth here folks. The Cubs have EVEN LESS to trade for Peavy now than they did 3 months age. With busts like Cedano, Hill, and Pie gone, the Pads are not going to go scrounging around for A level or B-prospects for an ace. Aside from Vitters, the Cubs have NOTHING of value."

Hahaha. What a surprise to see the usual troll enter a Peavy thread.

(Cedeno)

I actually referenced the wrong user last night when I posted this below. I meant to reference the post by soulsurfer at 1:13 am


Nelson,

I agree with everything you said except there is no way the Brewers would include Gallardo. I'm not sure they'd have to include Parra to be honest, but I think Gallardo would definitely not be in it.He's an ace. Even without Gallardo in there, the deal you said is enough to get Peavy

Posted by: xxgochisox09 | March 25, 2009 at 01:24 AM

"Brewers are the 2nd best team in the NL Central already.

They lost 2 'aces' but they got Gallardo healthy again and added Looper. They are still an 85 win team or so.

The Astros will be lucky to be .500 assuming everything goes right, their rotation is miserable."


Maybe...but Looper and Yovani is not CC and Sheets(or even close to it). The Brewers also lost some key guys off the bench and out of their bullpen which people seem to forget.

Last I checked there are six teams in the central...well five I guess. Not just the Cubs Brewers and Stros. The Cards are looking as healty as they have been in a few years and picked up sound pleayer in Khalil Green. Not to mention that guy they got over at first base is pretty good. The Reds have a very good pitching and could have something to say about who wins the division.

I actually believe that the Brewers will be competing for 3rd in the division. I think the Cards are better and I think the Reds will be right there with the Brew Crew.

Quoting Looper as a member of your rotation as being evidence of it being good just says it all. Sounds a lot like signing Suppan coming straight off working with Dave Duncan to me...probably with similar results.

The Cards, with Carpenter healthy and Khalil producing, both of whom have been absolutely shining in Spring Training so far, are the 2nd best team in this division.

..xxgochisox09, I hardly ever post, but your lack of understanding for baseball actually drove me to post, maybe to educate you and maybe to vent.

Jake Peavy is not as good as J.J. Hardy.

In 2007 and 2008 combined, one of these players was worth 9.4 wins and one was worth 9 wins, the latter being Peavy.

J.J. Hardy is projected to be worth ~5 wins next season at a much cheaper price than Peavy's ~3.5-4 win projection.

The only way you could argue for peavy is that he is controlled for more years, but he is so expensive in those years that he really isn't a highly advantageous contract to possess, and given aging and uncertainty it is more likely he becomes a bad contract than a good one.

Also, J.J. Hardy is easily a top 10 shortstop, do a little research.

And your claim that GMs prefer an ace to a SS is totally baseless. To your credit, Kenny Williams might agree, but 20+ GMs probably wouldn't.

Posted by: ChadGod | March 25, 2009 at 03:28 AM

Chadgod,

Thanks I appreciate the free education, but I think I'll stick to what I said about most GM's preferring an ace to a ss. I'm not big on that plus wins type thing that stat guys do. I think it leaves out important things like how good the team a player is on, and whether or not he was injured. A great example would be a guy like Jake Peavy actually who fits both those categories.

You said based on 2007-2008 stats for the wins thing Hardy had more (although it was .4 more) and Hardy projects to have more then Peavy. That may be true, but doesn't come close telling the whole story.

Jake Peavy's average ERA the last 2 years is 2.69. His average wins is 15, but that is greatly misleading by 19 in 2007 and 10 last year. I think most people would agree the 09 Padres probably will be closer to last year then 07. Peavy's ERA last year was 2.85. If you put that on any decent team like the Brewers or the cubs who are certainly more then a decent team and have one of the best offenses in baseball I think Peavy easily would win another 2-3 games at least. Being the great baseball mind you are, I know you may come back with the home/road split argument for peavy and not being in Petco anymore so i saved you a little time and checked it out myself. His average road ERA is 3.43 not quite as good but certainly more then good enough to still win tons of games especially coupled with a better team. This argument alone would probably give Peavy that extra .5 needed to pass Hardy, but I'll give you another.

Injury... Last year J.J. Hardy played 146 games and in 2007, 151 ,which is a ton even for a starter. Last year Jake Peavy only made 27 starts compared to his normal 30-32. Even on a bad San Diego team I tend to believe Peavy would've won another game or two with the the extra starts. I think combining those two factors would easily put Peavy ahead of Hardy on the wins thing in the past and this year. (which like I said I dont like, but am using it just for my argument here)

I may have been wrong when I said J.J. Hardy wasn't a top 10 ss. Maybe the better word to use was arguably a top 10.

Here are the guys I think noone could argue are better then Hardy: Jeter, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Rollins, and Furcal (before I get the argument about Furcal having 8 SB last year, lets please remember he was hurt from basically July till playoffs)

If it was me personally I also would take those 6 guys above and these guys over Hardy: Stephen Drew, Tulowitzki, Peralta, Tejada,

I think you also could debate Jed Lowrie and possibly Alexi Ramirez, but I think with Ramirez it's a little early since he only has had one good year and I'd like to see how he is defensively first, although he did play it in cuba very well supposedly, but still I think you have to wait to see in the majors.

"If it was me personally I also would take those 6 guys above and these guys over Hardy: Stephen Drew, Tulowitzki, Peralta, Tejada,

I think you also could debate Jed Lowrie and possibly Alexi Ramirez, but I think with Ramirez it's a little early since he only has had one good year and I'd like to see how he is defensively first, although he did play it in cuba very well supposedly, but still I think you have to wait to see in the majors."

I'm sorry, but this is laughable. Peralta and Jed Lowrie over JJ Hardy? Seriously? No...u can't be serious, right?

xxgochisox09,

Hardy is better than Jeter.

Outlander....agreed but jeter is clutch....JJ is a lil too streaky

xxgochisox09,

Hardy is better than Jeter.

Posted by: Outlander | March 25, 2009 at 10:27 AM

If you're one of those people that just loves to see the longball youre right.

Unfortunately baseball is alot more then that... Jeter blows Hardy away in avg, OBP, had more runs scored, is better in fielding percentage, and only had 5 less RBI's then Hardy being primarily a table setter and not a run producer like Hardy is...

Class is dismissed

xxgochisox09,

Hardy is better than Jeter.

Posted by: Outlander | March 25, 2009 at 10:27 AM

If you're one of those people that just loves to see the longball youre right.

Unfortunately baseball is alot more then that... Jeter blows Hardy away in avg, OBP, had more runs scored, is better in fielding percentage, and only had 5 less RBI's then Hardy being primarily a table setter and not a run producer like Hardy is...

Class is dismissed

Posted by: xxgochisox09 | March 25, 2009 at 10:37 AM

xxgochisox...Your right on the long ball statement. JJ hits more hr, doubles, and ect. With that comes more k's but look at the team hes on. Same as your Sox...they get into that mode once in a while where it's hr or k. Fileding % goes in jeters way because JJ can get to a ball in the hole and takes a chance to get him. I watched alot of Brewer games last year and most of his errors came on throws from the hole. Jeter can't make those throws which we all saw in the WBC this year.

"Unfortunately baseball is alot more then that... Jeter blows Hardy away in avg, OBP, had more runs scored, is better in fielding percentage, and only had 5 less RBI's then Hardy being primarily a table setter and not a run producer like Hardy is...

Class is dismissed"


I just saw someone "dismiss class" based on fielding percentage and RBIs???

Hahahaha...thats hilarious.

According to Bill James, someone who uses REAL research to measure defense, Jeter was a -12 at shortstop, which happened to be really good for him the last few years, and Hardy was a whopping +19. Anyone who has a clue what they are talking about will tell you Jeter isn't good on Defense, and Hardy is excellent.

Jeter had an OPS+ of 102 last year. Hardy? 113.

So we have established here that Hardy is the better offensive player, and FAR superior on defense.

Any questions? Now the class is dismissed.

Boom Roasted!!!!

"If it was me personally I also would take those 6 guys above and these guys over Hardy: Stephen Drew, Tulowitzki, Peralta, Tejada,

I think you also could debate Jed Lowrie and possibly Alexi Ramirez, but I think with Ramirez it's a little early since he only has had one good year and I'd like to see how he is defensively first, although he did play it in cuba very well supposedly, but still I think you have to wait to see in the majors."

I'm sorry, but this is laughable. Peralta and Jed Lowrie over JJ Hardy? Seriously? No...u can't be serious, right?

Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 25, 2009 at 09:59 AM

Aduncaroo,

I'll admit I shouldn't have put Lowrie in that group. I think I was projecting more then going with evidence which if everyone did that, we could argue anyone could be better then anyone so I'll give you that one..

I'm not sure why you are so quick to dismiss Peralta though.

Him and Hardy are the same age and their past 4 year avgs and OBP are almost identical

Peralta:.268 avg
Hardy: .270 avg

Peralta: .335 OBP
Hardy: .329 OBP


For HRS and RBIS and Runs, I'm going to do the last 2 years cause I think in 06 and especially 05 the Indians had alot better offensive teams then Milwaukee so this could skew this dated in Peralta favor too much

Peralta: 22 HRs
Hardy: 25 HRS

Peralta: 81 RBIS
Hardy: 77 RBIS


Peralta: 95 Runs
Hardy: 84 runs

Peralta has a .974 fielding %
Hardy a .977

Peralta had his best year last year as well, when two of the better Indian's hitters were hurt most of year in Martinez and Hafner so he lost a little lineup protection.. While there is no guarentee these guys will come back to full strength, its possible and that could give Peralta a chance to have an even better year, so I dont think its laughable at all to take Peralta over Hardy

I guess to end Peralta probably belongs in the debatable category and Lowrie should be behind Hardy... Even with that being said I still think I basically proved the one guy who said Hardy was definitely a top ss is either wrong or at the least the word it's alot more debateable


"Unfortunately baseball is alot more then that... Jeter blows Hardy away in avg, OBP, had more runs scored, is better in fielding percentage, and only had 5 less RBI's then Hardy being primarily a table setter and not a run producer like Hardy is...

Class is dismissed"


I just saw someone "dismiss class" based on fielding percentage and RBIs???

Hahahaha...thats hilarious.

According to Bill James, someone who uses REAL research to measure defense, Jeter was a -12 at shortstop, which happened to be really good for him the last few years, and Hardy was a whopping +19. Anyone who has a clue what they are talking about will tell you Jeter isn't good on Defense, and Hardy is excellent.

Jeter had an OPS+ of 102 last year. Hardy? 113.

So we have established here that Hardy is the better offensive player, and FAR superior on defense.

Any questions? Now the class is dismissed.

Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 25, 2009 at 10:57 AM


Aduncaroo,

Well actually class was more dismissed on the avg and obp part, thats why I listed them first. But you do your research better then me with the Bill James stuff. I more am a stat guy when it comes to offense and the eye test. So I guess you probably have shown me Jeter isn't better then Hardy or maybe belongs in the debateable category.. and I think I've shown you that isn't laughable to take Peralta over hardy... let's see who gets the tiebreaker

Why in the world do you continue to quote runs, fielding %, HRs, and RBIs in debates???

How about things like OPS, OPS+, +/- fielding etc.

OPS+
Peralta - 108
Hardy - 113

Bill James +/-

Peralta
2006- -9
2007- -3
2008- -11

Hardy
2006- +7
2007- +7
2008- +19

This isn't a close arguement. Peralta isn't in the same category here as long as he continues to be a little worse on offense and an absolute butcher in the field.

When looking at both sides of the ball, there is no way one can actually make an educated argument that Hardy isn't easily a top 10 SS in this league...and I'm just a jealous Cubs fan.

xxgochisox...Your right on the long ball statement. JJ hits more hr, doubles, and ect. With that comes more k's but look at the team hes on. Same as your Sox...they get into that mode once in a while where it's hr or k. Fileding % goes in jeters way because JJ can get to a ball in the hole and takes a chance to get him. I watched alot of Brewer games last year and most of his errors came on throws from the hole. Jeter can't make those throws which we all saw in the WBC this year.

Posted by: cubbieblue | March 25, 2009 at 10:51 AM

Cubbie,


yeah youre right about the sox.. assuming Fields comes back to his 2007 stats when he filled in for Crede the whole year, and the other guys come close to what they did last year...this white sox team will be one of the most prolific home run hitting teams, prolific strikeout team, and absolutely attrocious defensively...

xxgochisox09,

Hardy is better than Jeter.

Posted by: Outlander | March 25, 2009 at 10:27 AM

If you're one of those people that just loves to see the longball youre right.

Unfortunately baseball is alot more then that... Jeter blows Hardy away in avg, OBP, had more runs scored, is better in fielding percentage, and only had 5 less RBI's then Hardy being primarily a table setter and not a run producer like Hardy is...

Class is dismissed

Posted by: xxgochisox09 | March 25, 2009 at 10:37 AM

xxgochisox09,

based on the above statement your teaching license has officially been revoked

Either typepad is having issues or you are talking to yourself...

just wondering but where does the roit fall in bill james? Just being a fan of baseball and having fun watching you two debate this I would have to say to break a tie you have to go by the eye ball test. It's baseball stats. You can make anyone look like they are better than the other by point out their strong and weak areas of their game. I would say JJ is better but I am sure that's just because I see more JJ than Jeter. Bottom Line....they are both good ss and fun to watch.

Aduncaroo,

I've read alot of your posts on here and you are a very knowledgeable baseball fan. I'd like to think I am too, but will also admit when it comes to these new things like calculating plus/minus fielding, the plus/minus wins thing, and the whole OPS I'm not terribly in tune with it.

I know what OPS stands for, I know how they calculate it... but I guess I don't know scale of the numbers.. for example when you listed

Hardy OPS- 113
Peralta OPS - 108... How big a difference is that exactly? I just see it as a difference of 5 and seems like it's pretty close based on that

Either typepad is having issues or you are talking to yourself...

Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 25, 2009 at 11:20 AM


Sorry it's not typepad...I was trying to make a joke by responding to my own post..

Its definitely not a big difference. Thats why I said JJ was a little better offensively and worlds better defensively.

OPS+, I believe, is calculated by taking the average OPS of every hitter in that league, then saying what percentage the player is bettet than that. So, if Hardy was a 113, that would mean he was 13% better than the average hitter in the NL. Peralta was 8% better than the average hitter in the AL.

Anyone, if I am wrong on this, please correct me.


Theriot actually rates better than most give him credit for. He was a +6 in 2008 and a +5 in 2007. For what its worth, he was -2 at SS in 2006.

Neither of these stats are the end all be all, but OPS+ is a great tool to evaluate the player against every other hitter in their league, and to have a SS that is around 110 is really good for both teams. Its defensively that Hardy sets himself apart from almost all of the other SSs that can match his offensive production.

The reason why runs and RBIs are not good stats to use is because they aren't individually dependent. They have a lot to do with the players hitting behind you, which isn't fair to the player you are trying to measure or compare them to. OPS is one of the better ways to measure the individuals performance on what he actually controls. Same goes for wins when measuring pitching.

By the way, I like Derek Jeter, I just think its about time they think about moving him. He just doens't have the range to play SS...and hasn't for awhile. Offensively, he is a good player to have because the guy always gets on base. I expect a bit of a bounce back year from him at the plate, but his defensive numbers are never even going to be average.

OPS

Hardy - .821
Peralta - .804

I will admit that I was a bit surprised to see how good of a year Peralta had a the plate last year. Hardy's was better, but not by a ton. But like I said before, Peralta gives a lot of that back by giving up runs defensively, while Hardy just gains more.

Also, something interesting of note, John Dewan, who works with Bill James, has found in his research that defense is worth roughly half as much as offense. So the really bad defenders need to be really good offensively to make up for that, and I just don't think Peralta does that well enough to stick at SS.

However, a guy like Hardy, who is pretty good offensively and excellent defensively is helping your team score more runs that the other team in every way, which is a great thing to have from one of the most important positions on the field.

Just my take.

It would take considerably more to get Peavy than CC because the Padres have leverage the Indians didn't. If the Brewers don't meet their asking price the Padres can just keep letting him pitch for them. The Brewers paid for 2 months with CC, they would be paying for 3 years with Peavy. Who do you think would require more?

Posted by: GScott | March 25, 2009 at 03:00 AM

If you knew anything about the prospects that I listed there you'd see that project ability wise they are a lot better than the ones the Brewers gave to the Indians. There are three potentially elite players and a solid 3b man. Projections don't mean crap, but in a trade like this, projections is all you're taking

OPS

Hardy - .821
Peralta - .804

I will admit that I was a bit surprised to see how good of a year Peralta had a the plate last year. Hardy's was better, but not by a ton. But like I said before, Peralta gives a lot of that back by giving up runs defensively, while Hardy just gains more.

Also, something interesting of note, John Dewan, who works with Bill James, has found in his research that defense is worth roughly half as much as offense. So the really bad defenders need to be really good offensively to make up for that, and I just don't think Peralta does that well enough to stick at SS.

However, a guy like Hardy, who is pretty good offensively and excellent defensively is helping your team score more runs that the other team in every way, which is a great thing to have from one of the most important positions on the field.

Just my take.

Posted by: Aduncaroo | March 25, 2009 at 12:11 PM


Aduncaroo,

Thank you, and everything you said makes sense. I think I've heard John DeWan before. Doesn't he have a segment on the score? It's usually around lunchtime I think and it's hard for me to tune in then, but could've sworn I heard him on before... I'm assuming your from chicago too or listen to the station

Actually, I live in St. Louis, but I used to live in Chicago and the quad cities when I was a kid.

John D is a semi-frequent guest of Murph on the score, so you are absolutely right about that. I listen on the website, but usually only during the season. He writes the Fielding Bible as well.

By the way, here are a couple of other sites, besides this great one of course, that you might like.

Baseballreference.com - Fastest way to tell OPS+ and ERA+

BillJamesonline.net - Defensive metrics

Fangraphs.com - the bottom of each player's page tells you how much the player was worth last season, and includes defensive metrics. This is brand new and really cool. This is also the best place to compare a player's projections for the next season, as they show you like 4 different systems' guesses.

Peavy wouldn't accept a trade to the Brewers. He gave his 5 teams.

As for Halladay, the Jays won't trade him.

The early spec is that the Brewers would be willing to give up Gamel in a deal. Presuming the Padres want to keep the dollars low on what they receive but still get an MLB pitcher, my guess is that Gamel, Bush, Gwynn and another prospect or two get talked about. Escobar and Jeffress are the only two guys in the minors the Brewers won't move.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment


Top Stories



Search MLBTR

Lijit Search

MLBTR Features



Recent Posts


MLBTR Mailing List

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner


Rumors By Team



Monthly Archives


Live Chats


Tuesdays at 2 p.m. CST



Site Map     Contact     About     Advertise     Privacy Policy     Widget     Twitter     Rss Feed


MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com.