No Elbow Tests For Santana

I don't even think this particular situation is something to get really worked up about, but this is why I was and am so against giving Santana, or any other pitcher a contract like this. Santana going down could set the Mets back to the early 90's. Scary.

About freakin time.

I disagree. I am much more worried about the long term ramifications of a Santana injury. I think they could still be competitive this year. They did in in 2006 with no Pedro and won the division by 15 games or whatever. I realize it isn't the same players and the teams are different, but the Mets will definitely still compete without him, they will just be handcuffed financially for the next 6 years.

Put Carlos Santana on the Guitar and park the fat lady in the front row for this one.

I agree with nrmax, this could be huge other than Johan, they don't have an ace per say.

So if he misses opening day, who'll start? Ollie?

O that's sad...too bad you didn't get Lowe;)

Neither does my team (have an ace) but the Mets' bullpen could really carry the Mets this year.

This is what happens when you have pitching depth that consists of Redding, Garcia and Livan.

Not that anyone can replace a player of Johan's caliber. This would be a huge bombshell not only to the on paper stats of the Mets but also to their players.

No ace and they have to play behind TWO of Redding, Niese, Garcia or Livan?! Imagine another injury?

Forget this season if Johan goes down for an extended time.

After two years of collapse after collapse, the reason for this year's collapse will be the team's rotation.

strikethree,

I agree with you. I'm not one for complimenting the Mets on anything, but the front office did a good job adding depth to their rotation for an occurrance such as this.

I have to admit, there are pretty much no teams who have an ace like Holliday.

Anyway, when Johan signed that contract last year I was kinda prepared that he'd go down for a year or two, hoping it would be in the 4th or 5th year of the contract rather than 2nd.

Mets havent had any truly horrible contracts like Hampton, Schmidt, Zito etc. so I figured it was due.

By the way, whats wrong with having Redding, Garcia, Niese and Livan as backups? 3 of those 4 were regular starters last year, 2 of them succesful and Niese is a top prospect. The depth is much better than last year(Knight,Figueroa,Vargas) or the year before (Park, Lawrence, Dave Williams)

This should not be a huge surprise for the Mets. As you can see by my name I love Johan and wished him to join the Red Sox when he was being marketed by the Twins. However, this is the risk you have when you sign a pitcher to more than 5 years. I still can't believe that the two New York teams did not learn from the Giants signing of Barry Zito. I expect something to happen with Sabathia and Santana by the end of this season. One or both will be on the DL.

I love the Mets and I hope they can keep the Phillies out of the playoffs this time, though without Johan, that will be a hopeless task. They really need that one guaranteed win every 5 games.
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I don't think that's a fair comparison. Barry Zito hasn't been injured while with SF. He just sucks. And the writing was on the wall that he lost his fastball prior to the signing. Why else would the pitching starved Yanks not even show a glimmer of interest in Zito? It seems like everyone in the baseball world knew Zito was in decline and no one offered a deal anywhere near what SF offered.

Pitchers aren't going 200 + inning because teams are coddling them and because with all the specialization of the bullpen there's no need for them to go past 7 innings, but consider the past. COnsider guys like Seaver, Carlton, Palmer, Gibson, Ryan, Johnson, Drysdale, Jenkins, Palmer and Clemens who were all power pitchers who logged 230 + innings every year and never suffered arm related injuries. Who knows why guys seem so fragile now a days but you can never predict injuries (Santana) but you can certainly predict production decline (Zito).

viktor06- Which of those 4 were succesful? Livan had an era over 6 and I don't remember Redding being successful at all. While Niese had 1 good start, the other 2 he gave up 5+ runs. Can Garcia even top 90 mph? Mets may have depth, but I wouldn't say it is good depth..

This sounds a lot like Tim Hudson. As a Braves fan however, I hope Johan isnt out that long cause I want to beat the Mets and Phillies at their best this year.

nrmax-

This Mets' team is not as good as the one in 2006; plus, the NL East is MUCH more competitive now than it was in 2006 with the Phillies coming off a WS title and the Marlins getting better and better by the day.

Personally, I think the Mets will finish third or fourth in the division WITH Santana. Without him, they'll be lucky to be a .500 team.

Hitters didnt' work the count as much in the past and there were more holes in lineups so pitchers would pitch to contact with lower effort pitches. If guys who used to throw 250 IP a year stepped into todays game they would likely be throwing 220 IP a year with the same amount of effort.

It isn't just that players are coddled, it is that pitching is harder now. Combination of both things.

" I still can't believe that the two New York teams did not learn from the Giants signing of Barry Zito. I expect something to happen with Sabathia and Santana by the end of this season. One or both will be on the DL."

I agree with the notion that contracts that large to pitchers are generally bad ideas, but you really, REALLY can't compare Johan and CC to Barry Zito.

Johan and CC were bona-fide aces before they signed their big money deal. Barry Zito was not. Zito's last true "ace" season were the 2002-2003 seasons, and he stranded an ungodly 80% of baserunners in '02 (very unrepeatable) and had a .76 GB/FB ratio in '02. 2003 was less flukish, but he still had the VERY low BABIP. Zito would never put up another season with an FIP under 4.30, which is simply not an ace. His WHIP in his walk year was 1.40, which is very pedestrian. He walked a lot of batters; his career LOW in walks was 78 (in '02) while Johan's career HIGH is 63 and CC hadn't walked close to 78 since his first two seasons in Cleveland.

In conclusion, Johan and CC actually were aces at the time of contracts. Zito wasn't.

And Zito was a flyball pitcher pitching in a very pitcher friendly park (pitcher's parks help flyball pitchers more than they do groundballers) with a very strong infield defense behind him (Ellis and Chavez). That just should've screamed fluke to everyone involved.

"I disagree. I am much more worried about the long term ramifications of a Santana injury. I think they could still be competitive this year. They did in in 2006 with no Pedro and won the division by 15 games or whatever. I realize it isn't the same players and the teams are different, but the Mets will definitely still compete without him, they will just be handcuffed financially for the next 6 years."

I agree. I'd be waaay more concerned about the long term ramifications of an injury than short-term. I'm very wary of and against contracts over 4 years to pitchers. If the injury is long-term and/or becomes recurring, the development of guys like Niese and Brad Holt will be absolutely huge to the organization, as the financial handicap in the rotation will be huge.

Although right now, I think Omar needs to be calling Pedro's agent. Now. Although he should've done this already.

Wow. First Redding, now Santana.

Probably nothing serious but given how he had this soreness in Spring Training, I can only imagine it could lead to bigger issues down the road.

If Santana and Redding are hurt to start the season, what does the Mets' rotation look like?

Perez
Maine
Pelfrey
Neise
Garcia

People say the Dodgers pitching is thin but, honestly, that would be a paper thin rotation.

And besides K-Rod and Putz, the pen is extremely iffy as well.

I still like the Phillies' chances in the NL East and I also think the Braves could surprise.

Hopefully, for Mets fans, Santana's injury doesn't linger because if it does, then the Mets will have some real issues.

'Johan Santana completed a bullpen session this morning without pause, and did not report any elbow discomfort. Santana will still go to New York for tests.

No need for Met fans to be jumping off that ledge just yet....

ok at least it won't be a career changing injury, as it say's he threw a pain free bullpen session, he will probably only miss a start or 2 based on how ready he is for the season.

"This is how baseball is now. Signing him for 6 years is better than Sabathia for 7, Burnett for 5, or Lowe for 4."

Exactly especially Burnett with his injury history he is going to end up just like Carl Pavano.

When Santana was with the Twins he never threw over 115 pitches in a game so the Twins took very good care of his arm. You should be more concerned about his loss of stuff (decreased velocity on his fastball).

"In conclusion, Johan and CC actually were aces at the time of contracts. Zito wasn't."

Yeah, this why I think the Zito contract basically should be thrown out the window when comparing the contracts of elite starting pitchers.

Zito was a durable #3 starter when he signed the deal, but Boras managed to get him the deal of an ace. Practically everyone at the time knew that Zito wasn't the pitcher that San Francisco somehow thought they were getting, and the signs were really, really obvious.

The signs of Zito's decline were so clear that I still find it astonishing that he got that deal, and I was freaking 15 when he signed.

His fastball velocity dropped from 87.3 MPH in 2005 to 85.8 MPH in 2006, which is a huge drop for a pitcher going into his physical prime.

His walk rate was always in the mid 3's (BAD) but jumped up over 4.00 in 2006, his final year in Oakland.

His low HR rate, which helped him in early in his career, rose over 1.00 in his two final years in Oakland.

His FIPs his final three seasons in Oakland were 4.50, 4.34, and 4.89, respectively.

This was a guy who had shown VERY CLEAR signs of both physical and statistical decline, and he in no way warranted the contract he landed.

Just like the Silva contract, the Zito contract was a massive mistake from the moment the ink dried, and it simply isn't reflective of the market in any way.

People always come at me and say Gomez and Humber and Guerra stink hahah stupid!! When I talk about how I would have never made that trade. The point is, it would have been very dangerous and probably irresponsible to give out a contract like that to a guy that was a free agent, costing you no prospects. So whatever players they lost in the deal was just gravy. Giving a pitcher more then a 5 year deal is just a really bad idea, and I don't get why people seem to take that personally. Instead of debating rationally they just call me a loser and rant about how Santana is the best pitcher in the history of the universe, and why wasn't I saying this when he pitched a complete game against the Marlins and all this. There is no pitcher in the history of the game that I would give a 7 year contract at 20 mil+ annually too, in this generation. It has simply never worked out before.

I don't buy the "we did it in 06 without an Ace so it will work in 09" argument.

The mets bullpen had 4 pitchers toss at least 50 innings with under a 3.00 ERA in 2006, and not included in those four were: Darren Oliver, Aaron Heilman, Guillermo Mota, and Roberto Hernandez who all had pretty decent seasons.

Their line-up is still pretty stacked, but I would take the 06 lineup before the 09 lineup as well.

"we would be better off without a ticking time bomb on our payroll, a guy who can destroy the franchise for a half a decade if he gets hurt."

This is foresight thinking that I hope will never come into play for the sake of the Mets, but if Santana were to get hurt long term, I don't think the Mets would be crippled long term though. They would be financially handicapped, but not necessarily crippled. Unless F-Mart, Niese, Holt, Parnell, and Wilmer Flores all fell on their faces, which is very very unlikely. Pelfrey is a borderline ace. Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez are going to stick around. Development of Niese and Holt will be huge for the organization though.

The Mets have Wright and Reyes, and Beltran locked up for years to come. Those are the three most expensive non-pitching positions to fill on the market.

As a franchise, the Mets can withstand it and contend through a long-term Johan injury, but it will require a good amount of smart dealing and drafting.

And they will definitely contend in 2009.

CT -- I agree... I was at a bar the other night talking to a Cards fan and he told me everytime Beltran came to the plate in the NLCS it scared the crap outta him. He was on a tear in 2006 along with Delgado... And when ya get a 330 obp and 18 homers outta your 38 year old 2B its gotta be your year. Like with most of my teams though they came up just a bit short. And my bitterness as a sports fan continued

Hamels and Santana is pretty much a wash

Hamels, Romero, Madson, Lidge is far greater than Santana Ayala Schoe Heilman and the rest of the slop we threw out there in the late innings last year

"Hamels>Santana"

Let's not start this.

"I'm similarly concerned about the deal that Hendry gave Zambrano."

I'd be more scared of the Cubs' state if Zambrano got hurt/declined severely than the Mets if Johan declined. The Cubs' lack of financial flexibility going forward (I see you there Alfonso Soriano) make that deal look even scarier. The Mets' worst contract right now is Castillo, and even that isn't a huge contract. The backloaded fiasco the Cubs have could get horrible if Zambrano got hurt long term.

no, it isn't delayed, it is canceled according to kevin burkhardt of SNY because he feels good enough after his bp session to start throwing regularly

"no, it isn't delayed, it is canceled according to kevin burkhardt of SNY because he feels good enough after his bp session to start throwing regularly"

Is the Mets medical staff taking pointers from the A's medical staff on pitcher injury prevention? Baaaad idea. Once the storms clear, he should be back in NY.

You take precautions when it comes to your players. Especially ones that are an integral part of your team's success, like Johan definitely is. He should get checked out for precautionary reasons.

Are MRI machines outlawed in Florida? You would think with the Mets having minor league affiliates and having a complex in Florida that they train at every year, it would be possible to get Santana an MRI without flying all around the country.

uh...i think you need to update the article. mets.com is reporting that johan isnt going for an exam at all.

"I know Johan has been as consistent as there could be but he always lacked the grind it out mentality that CC has."

CC is all the injury risk Johan is.

I think we've confirmed that Santana isn't soft..

He's just a pitcher with a lot of innings on his arm, and therefore he's an injury risk.

Uggggggghhhhhh. He needs to be checked out..

You don't buy what a pitcher says in terms... ughhhhh.

Santana soft? Anyone who watched him pitching last Sept. knows better. He stayed in - some complete games - b/c the Mets had no one in the BP they could trust. His last start was a complete game 2 hitter with an injured knee.
Yeah....real soft.

People use the word durable incorrectly. Durable doesn't mean throwing 200 innings ever year. Durable means being able to handle a work load w/o succumbing to injuries. CC didn't throw 200 + inning from that stretch from 2003-2006 (he actually threw 194 inn per), not because he wasn't durable but because his stuff wasn't as good as it is now and he would often have that 1 bad inning that caused him to throw to many pitches or simply would give up too many runs.

From 2003-2006 he avg'd:

3.91 ERA, 67 BB and 147 ko

From 2007-2008 he avg'd:

3.05 ERA, 47 BB and 211 ko

His domincance over the last few years has allowed him to throw fewer pitches per inning, and stay in games much longer.

Tom Seaver was talking about that today. The idea that if a pitcher is dominant (fewer walks and hits allowed) then they throw fewer pitches per inning and thus can last longer into a game.

So don't confuse words like durability vs effectiveness.

nrmax, the 6th year was the difference. Was one extra year worth not getting Santana at all? Thank God you don't run the Mets, if you would have been prepared to lose Johan completely over one extra year.

JK47, agree 100%. Don't forget, on that last 3 hit CG Shutout, he had a torn ligament in his knee also. Lol, that sure sounds like a soft guy to me...

I don't think that people were arguing that Sabathia is or isn't durable.

Although I do agree with you. I think it's fairly well known by those who closely follow baseball, but its true that better pitchers keep their pitch counts down and last longer. That's one of the assets that helps to define a good pitcher.

But at the same time, the argument goes both ways.

Pitchers who are more dominant may end up throwing more pitches, because they are raking up strikeouts. Guys like Halladay, Buehrle and Wang can last longer because they make their way through the lineup quicker, avoiding the strikeouts and walks that increase their pitch counts. Being more dominant would cause less hitters to make contact, therefore leading to more pitches, unless the contact is good, hard contact that will lead to a hit. Pitchers than can pitch to weak contact can generally last longer than guys who blow the ball by you over and over.

"nrmax, the 6th year was the difference. Was one extra year worth not getting Santana at all? Thank God you don't run the Mets, if you would have been prepared to lose Johan completely over one extra year."

It's not as much the extra year for Johan as much as it was the fact that you are guaranteeing six years and 100++ MM to a pitcher. Five years to Santana would've been almost as bad. The injury attrition for pitchers is much higher than it is for position players.

I do think the Lowe contract was rather good (for a long term contract), but that was for about half the money Johan signed for.

Johan is arguably the best pitcher in baseball behind Halladay (just an opinion) and is definitely an elite pitcher, but saying the Mets absolutely HAD to have Johan is purely absurd. There might not have been options besides Johan in '07, but there sure as h3ll would've been options this year. There is not one correct way to build a team.

"I do not wish any harm on Johan but he has always been soft and CC was the right choice."

He's pitched between 219 and 234 innings in each of the past five seasons, hitting a career high in 2008.

Sabathia has been a horse the past two seasons, but he never pitched more than 197 innings in a season from 2003 to 2006.

Santana has actually been more durable than Sabathia, although all those additional innings will likely end up taking a toll on Santana.
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My comment about the use of the word durable had to do with the comment you made above. If a pitcher doesn't have "good stuff" or rather is prone to the big innings then naturally he'll have a higher pitch count. Dice-K is a perfect example. Good stuff but he'll have that one or two innings where he'll throw 25 pitches and will be around 100 pitches by the 5th or 6th innings thus leading him to leave early. It's not that Dice-K isn't neccesarily "durable" but it's moreso he isn't efficient with his pitches.
CC and Johan avoid those big innings, keep their pitch counts down and usually end up throwing somewhere between 7-9 innings per game.

"My comment about the use of the word durable had to do with the comment you made above. If a pitcher doesn't have "good stuff" or rather is prone to the big innings then naturally he'll have a higher pitch count. Dice-K is a perfect example. Good stuff but he'll have that one or two innings where he'll throw 25 pitches and will be around 100 pitches by the 5th or 6th innings thus leading him to leave early. It's not that Dice-K isn't neccesarily "durable" but it's moreso he isn't efficient with his pitches."

Okay fair enough, I definitely agree with this.

Matsuzaka is a fantastic example of a very good pitcher that doesn't get through many innings despite being healthy.

With the positional questions surrounding Jesus Montero, I'd like to keep at least one OF/DH spot open long term for him, since Teixeira has 1B occupied.

It just isn't a smart idea for the Yanks to have both Teixeira and Holliday locked up long term.

Santana can turn the club option into a player one under easily attainable criteria:

According to Cots

"# 2014 club option becomes player option if Santana:

* wins Cy Young award from 2008-13 and finishes second or third in the Cy Young vote in one other season
* ranks second or third in Cy Young vote in any 3 seasons, 2008-13
* is on the active roster for the final 30 days of 2013 season, and:
o pitches 215 innings in 2013, or
o pitches 420 innings in 2012-13, or
o pitches 630 innings in 2011-13"

Santana should easily have this option become a player option instead of a club one if he has one more good season.

"I honestly think that within a few years, Jeter will have to move to CF, which would fill the OF with AJax-Jeter-Swisher."

Okay now I see where our thinking differed.

I really don't think its clear that Jeter will be able to play center well enough to be even average there overall. His bat will continue to decline, as will his range and ability on the basepaths. I think that Jeter seems more fit for a bench role than an everyday role in center field. Obviously nostalgic sentiments will make that difficult.

I was presuming that Swisher would man right and Jackson would be in center, leaving left field open for a potential signing.

I do agree that having Holliday, A-Rod and Teixeira all under MASSIVE contracts would be quite the risk though, so maybe they go a different route, such as bringing back Nady like you said, which I would constitute and spending money on an outfielder.

I wasn't necessarily saying that the Yanks would go after Holliday hard, I was simply saying that the team doesn't currently have their 2010 outfield all under contract.

Yeah...I think the same thing. The same reason Jeter might need to move from SS is the same reason why he should not play CF. Preferably, I'd like to see him move to LF with a speedy CF (Gardner or Ajax) and whoever plays in RF (Swisher, Vlad, Holliday).

One thing I'd like to see this year is what effect Tex has on our IF defense. I think one of the benefits he will provide is that Cano won't have to cheat to overcompensate for a statue w/ oven mits at 1B. If he doesn't have to cheat to his left side then maybe he can cheat a little or cover a little more ground to his right. Jeter has great hands but his range is the issue. So if Arod is strong and 3B and Cano shows improvement at 2B then Jeter's range deficiencies should be as glaring this year.

The FA on my early radar are Khalil Greene, Vlad and Coco Crisp.

Holliday just doesn't fit in. I think Bay ends up staying in Boston. I have no clue where Holliday ends up. Mets, Braves maybe? Giants?

Posted by: melonis rex | March 01, 2009 at 03:49 PM

Jeter in CF? That would make me cringe. If it comes to that, then I think the Yanks should part ways.

With Matsui and Damon off the payroll, I can certainly see a Holliday signing.

Also, don't forget that Ajax has been training at RF as well. CF could go to Gardner or Melky if they stay.

It's just too soon to speculate any of this though.

Back to Santana:
Is there really no place to image his elbow in Florida? Even anywhere near Florida?!