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Mets Considering Trading For A First Baseman

As Bart Hubbuch of the New York Post reports, Carlos Delgado's hip problems have put his career in jeopardy. For now he's on the DL, but there's no immediate timeline for his return. This leaves the Mets without a first baseman. Here are some of Minaya's options:

  • Fernando Tatis could play first, perhaps with help from Daniel Murphy. Gary Sheffield's probably not an option anywhere but the outfield.
  • The Mets could sign Richie Sexson, Jose Vidro or another free agent   
  • He could make a trade. Jerry Manuel said Minaya's looking at trade possibilities. Could a player like Aubrey Huff or Jorge Cantu be a fit?


Comments

The Marlins aren't going to trade Cantu to a division rival.

If the Marlins fall out of it (which they are rapidly doing), I wouldn't mind them raiding the Mets farm system again and letting go of Cantu. The question is, do the Mets even have any good prospects to offer?

the mets arent about to have their farm "raided" by the marlins for jorge cantu. They can get huff from the orioles for next to nothing. They can probably have nick johnson for a minor prospect as well.

Yeah the marlins "raided" the mets farm system in the past...Mets really gave up the farm for Delgado who has been a stud for them and LoDuca who had a good 2006 season. So the mets traded Matt "Blown Save" Lindstrom for nothing. If the Marlins had any brains they would keep Cantu and try to get rid of Ugly...How about Todd Helton? He makes a lot of money and I can see the Rockies trying to get rid of that contract, and he could be had for little

Huff for f-mart and niese??
Tacking Huff's contract would be worth it.

Nick Johnson is too much of an injury risk. The Mets need someone that is going to be solid, durable and productive down the stretch this year.

Huff to me is their best option and the Orioles would likely give him up for a reasonable offer. But saying the Mets could get him for next to nothing is a bit strong because we are talking about a building team and we are talking about one of the more consistent contact/power guys in the American league right now.

Richie Sexson is a gamble because either they sign him and the time off and life experience of not having a job and a team this season has re-lit the fires that once made him an all star or, he will come in and just strike out and pop up like he did all year last year. Vidro shouldnt be considered for anything more than a utility bench role with any team so he's not even worth discussing.

Cantu isnt going to happen. I have no doubt that the marlins would love to trade him but the Mets wont give up a package of young players for him and the marlins wont trade him to a division rival when they could likely do just as good or better with an American league team or a non division rival.

I dont think the Mets have the young stars capable of getting a deal done for Gonzalez but what about making calls on guys like Adam Laroche and Ryan Garko?

Adam LaRoche, take him please.

Huff for f-mart and niese??
Tacking Huff's contract would be worth it.

Posted by: joemorgan=#1 | May 16, 2009 at 12:57 PM


Mets wouldn't trade F-Mart for Santana, but they'll give him for Huff yeah right

A name than hasn't been thrown out a lot but would make some sense: Victor Martinez. He'd make more sense if Delgado isn't done for the season, but either way, he'd provide some flexibility. The Indians have been luck has been piss poor, and its a weakish division, so they're probably not ready to can the season yet, but they also have Shoppach and they have Carlos Santana knocking.

What would Brian Boytano do?

We have Co-Jack, Tracy, Whitesell, and we will throw in Erics Bynes for FREE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mets don't have the farm system to go after A. Gonzalez or another stud - Baseball Prospectus has them #18 overall with only a few prospets in the 40-100 range. They could get a decent bat though if they offered to take on an unattractive contract though.

Mets don't have the farm system to go after A. Gonzalez or another stud - Baseball Prospectus has them #18 overall with only a few prospets in the 40-100 range. They could get a decent bat though if they offered to take on an unattractive contract though.

lol.

ok, seriously, why would the indians give up victor martinez? and if they did, the mets would have to trade the farm for him. not gonna happen.

tatis is significantly better bat than sexton or vidro (enough better of a bat than either to deal with any shortcomings defensively).

of all the options mentioned, huff makes the most sense.

Chris Duncan?

"A name than hasn't been thrown out a lot but would make some sense: Victor Martinez."

I could see V-Mart traded, but I think Brad Holt is a must for those deals. Something like Holt ++ , maybe, since the Tribe needs pitching.

Chris Duncan is also an option forsure. Seeing that kind of talent and potential sitting on a bench every day is annoying, he should be moved somewhere.

But its not his fault that a career minor leaguer and a reformed pitcher took the outfield spots in St.Louis, its just bad luck for him.

"ok, seriously, why would the indians give up victor martinez? and if they did, the mets would have to trade the farm for him. not gonna happen."

Um, how about because their winning percentage is currently below .400 and they have two very viable replacements in Kelly Shoppach and Carlos Santana who won't cost $5 million this year or $7 million next. Are they expected to even pick up V-Mart's option? I guess they might since he can play 1B and he's been so good, but I could see them decided to save $7 million and letting him walk.

"I could see V-Mart traded, but I think Brad Holt is a must for those deals. Something like Holt ++ , maybe, since the Tribe needs pitching."

Yeah this I agree with. Holt's the guy they'd probably target. Maybe something like Holt, Kunz, Ruben Tejada, and some organizational filler? They could definitely use the RP help, and Kunz has been pretty decent in Buffalo. Tejada's a major rush job, but he's a decent sleeper prospect for a MI.

The Mets can't get their farm system raided because they don't have a farm system. When is the last time one of the Mets' can't-miss prospects actually did something? Their last prospect who ended up doing ANYTHING they traded away for Victor Zambrano. Yes, I went there. Kazmir in CitiField would look good right about now. Enjoy.

Uh-oh, He went there.

it's much more likely if the trading parter is Cleveland that Ryan Garko would be the guy. Vmart's not going anywhere but if the Mets have any warm body that can get a guy out in the 7th or 8th inning Garko could probably be had.

The last Mets prospect to do ANYTHING was Kazmir?

Daniel Murphy: .279/.342/.423 in a platoon

Mike Pelfrey: Since 2008, 17-11 with an ERA around 4.00 in over 222 IP

Bobby Parnell: 2.20 ERA/6 Holds/(2-0) Fastball hits 98

Mike Jacobs: .270/.339/.539 with 8HR in KC

The Mets have plenty of appealing prospects. Just because they aren't at the top levels of the system is no reason why a team like the Orioles, Marlins or Indians wouldn't be interested.

I would be blown away if the Mets couldn't land any of these players, including V-Mart, for some combination of Jefry Marte, Jenrry Mejia, Brad Holt, Dillon Gee and Scott Moviel.

"A name than hasn't been thrown out a lot but would make some sense: Victor Martinez."

Alright listen up Mets fans. The Indians are NOT trading Victor. End of story. He's the leader of the clubhouse and the only leader they have left.

HOWEVER, I do think the Indians and Mets could match up for a trade.... for Ryan Garko. The Indians have a ton of 1B/DH options either in the MLB or in the minors and Garko will have to be dealt eventually. This is something I could definitely see happening.

But V-Mart... he's pretty much untouchable.

"Um, how about because their winning percentage is currently below .400 and they have two very viable replacements in Kelly Shoppach and Carlos Santana"

Santana is nowhere near ready for the bigs so I dont know what you're talking about. He's hitting .270 in AA, and Shoppach isn't considered ready to take the full-time job either.

Garko's your option, but that's all the Indians will give you.... trust me.

This team is going to need a starter.. if they are going to break the bank with chips like Holt, Mejia, Marte, Flores, or F-Mart it will be on a starting pitcher at the trade deadline.

They could get someone cheap like Nick Johnson, WSH has been trying to get rid of him for awhile now.. the only problem with though is that he is injury prone.. Tatis would be a serviceable back-up if Nick runs into injury problems.

Cleveland is a last place team, and V-Mart is a free agent after 2010 even if they pick up his option. Shoppach is easily good enough to start for a last place team, and with Shoppach and Santana, the odds are slim that V-Mart is going to be an Indian beyond 2010 no matter what.

In which case, the Indians are idiots if they don't trade him for a good enough offer. I don't think that they are idiots, but if you wish to believe so, I won't argue with you.

How about Atkins and 1 million bucks for Greg Veloz? Please!!!!

What would it take for Ryan Ludwick to be had? He can play both corner OF positions and is a right handed bat that would balance the lineup if they slotted Murphy at 1B.

When the dodgers traded Santana, they didnt think he could stand being an every day catcher and may need to be a 1B, where the bat is only OK. His D wasnt good w/ the dodgers.

For the mets prospects who have succeeded, i geuss you dont know who david wright and jose reyes are? Huff is making 8 mill this year. The orioles arent going anywhere and know that. I think nick evans and taking his contract would be enough, and so did whoever wrote that orioles trade possibilities post a couple of days ago.
Holt cannot be traded until one year after he signed his contract, so unless the mets want to a wait a while he wont be traded.

just cuz the indians aren't playing up to potential this season doesn't mean they don't expect to play better next year. vmart is one of the better hitters in the league. the only reason you trade him away is if you think you're a few years away (which, in that division, nobody is) or if you think you can't resign him (which i don't think they believe).

i think it's funny that fans of big market teams just think they can pluck away any guy that's going to get expensive in a trade because they have a need or desire for him.

it's not impossible that cleveland would trade him, but it's probably extremely unlikely (even w/minaya as GM) that the mets would meet the unreasonable demands that cleveland would make for a top player in the league that's not a half-season rental and is signed for a pretty reasonable number next year.

how about Nick Johnson and maybe a bench player or minor leaguer to the Mets for a pitching prospect and someone like oliver perez

sorry for the double post, but they better not sign vidro, he's clubhouse cancer

"Yes, I went there. Kazmir in CitiField would look good right about now. Enjoy."

Santana looks better.

And no, they wouldn't have him if they still had Kazmir.

Nick Johnson would be a stupid idea since the Mets could get someone better and cheaper and give up about the same. Johnson could just end up with another 1B on the DL and the Mets scrambling for an option later this year when the price for guys like Garko and Huff will be double.

Aubrey Huff and Ryan Garko are the best options for a 1st baseman however, an interesting point was brought up with Murphy moving to 1st base and the mets trading for a corner outfielder instead. If that were the case, there'd be a lot more names/options for the Mets.

However if they were to try and hit up a corner outfielder, it sure wouldnt be Ludwick, no chance. If were talking St.Louis I would say more along the lines of Ankiel because he is a FA at the end of the season or Chris Duncan because he could play 1st and the OF. Anyone have any other viable candidates for corner outfielders the Mets could rationally trade for?

If the Jays werent playing as well as they are I would easily say Overbay could be an option for NY as well.

V-Mart is going NOWHERE, Mets fans stop dreaming because it aint happening on either end of that deal. The Mets would have to give up a lot of future potential and the Indians will not trade their leader. If its Cleveland, its Garko, its that simple.

Weren't the Mets looking to get rid of Castillo? STL could use him. Move Skip to the OF to replace Dunc.

Good idea.

Garrett atkins is a good name to consider, along with helton.

I like the duncan option and huff.

Ill put the 5 best options at huff, duncan, johnson, helton, and atkins.

But what about derek lee? He's about done anyways. If he wasn't a cub, people would realize he's incredibly below average. All the blind cubs fans still think he's solid.

I don't think that the O's would give up Huff just for salary relief. They don't have anyone who can play 1B in his absence for about 2 years, unless Dustin Ackley falls to them in this year's draft. If Huff has a reasonably good year, the likelihood was that the O's would extend him for 2 years until Brandon Snyder or Brandon Waring are ready. If the O's do move Huff, it's because he has value. The organization doesn't really need salary relief at this time.

If the Mets are looking at a short term (this year) solution, I'd look north to Toronto and Kevin Millar. If they want a more long-term solution, they might want to see if the Cubs will part with Hoffpaur.

The mets are a big market team, but I don't think that would make them desparate enough to take on Helton's contract. They can probably get the same production out of tatis/murphy, and it's not costing them 19 million a year until 2012. I don't think the mets make a move until they see what murph/tatis can do, most of the guys that are available now aren't a big enough upgrade to bother trading for. Huff wouls be the exception, but I don't think omar would give up much to get him. The suggestion of f-mart and niese was probably the dumbest thing I've read on this site.

GScott

Did you forget that the two most important and possibly best players on the Mets, David Wright and Jose Reyes, were drafted by the Mets? (Reyes was actually signed as an undrafted free agent). Those two players right there gives your system, whether it is developing or recognizing talent, a little bit of credit and prestige.

"GScott

Did you forget that the two most important and possibly best players on the Mets, David Wright and Jose Reyes, were drafted by the Mets? (Reyes was actually signed as an undrafted free agent). Those two players right there gives your system, whether it is developing or recognizing talent, a little bit of credit and prestige."

I think he was suggesting the farm hasn't produced much in awhile. Reyes and Wright are both young and very good but they've both been up for quite a few years now. That is not to say GScott was entirely correct- Daniel Murphy has established himself as a pretty solid bat, he just needs to find a position. Mike Pelfrey was pretty great last year but he has been a little iffy this year. If F-Mart ever comes up he's supposed to be a stud. Not a terrible system but they should be trying to rebuild it, not dump prospects for an average 1b player. Platoon for now.

Luis Castillo, Carlos Delgado, Johan Santana, Ryan Church, JJ Putz, Sean Green, Brian Schnieder, and Paul Loduca. What's the common thread with all these guys? They were all acquired for talent drafted and developed by the mets farm system. All of these guys have been important components of the Mets the last few seasons on a team whose has an 88 win season, an 89 win season, a 97 win season, and is currently leading their division. Couple that with guys like Reyes, Wright, Pelfrey, and Murphy, and the Mets have put together a solid core of guys using their system.

This is definetly not the prototypical way to build a team with your farm system, but it does show that the mets have a firm grasp on the value of their prospects and when to sell high. If the mets had kept their prospects and they produced at the level of the players mentioned above, any fanbase would be thrilled. Part of the challenge with prospects is maximizing value, not everyone is going to be Wright or Reyes.

Duncan? Yuck, I rather take Huff or Johnson.

" Duncan? Yuck, I rather take Huff or Johnson. "

I would rather have Duncan or Huff over Johnson, Duncan is too good to be on the bench.

"Santana is nowhere near ready for the bigs so I dont know what you're talking about. He's hitting .270 in AA, and Shoppach isn't considered ready to take the full-time job either."

Um, really? You're one evaluation tool for a prospect is batting average? How about the fact that he's widely considered the second best catching prospect in the game? How about his .945 OPS and absurd 13/25 K/BB? None of that does anything for you? I'm not saying he's ready to step into a big league catching job immediately, but he is not far away at all.

I'm not saying I'm an expert on the Indians motives, it was pure speculation on my part, and I don't think they'll trade him just for the sake of trading him, but it would be foolish to call him "untouchable" if the Indians don't climb out of the basement by the ASB. The money they save on V-Mart could buy them a legitimate pitching upgrade in the offseason, not to mention they could get a very nice prospect return.

The Mets need to pursue a trade with Toronto in my opinion for Lyle Overbay.

He would come relatively cheap, is a solid left handed bat and i am sure the Jays who currently are riding the Kevin Millar train would be happy to shed his contract.

If they dont pursue a 1B I would be perfectly happy if they brought up Fernando Martinez and moved Dan Murphy to first to evaluate where they stand for next season, whether or not they should resign Delgado, and if Martinez can contribute on an everyday basis in 2010

I think Adam LaROuche is a good guy to take a look at. He's a FA next year and the Pirates are tanking. His numbers are less than stellar but I could see him finishing somewhere aroung .270/.340 20-25 hrs on a good team surrounded by some better, more established hitters. Probably wouldn't cost the Mets much either.

Totally agree with MEddler.

I don't think Santana is ready to come up to MLB now, but after a little bit of time in AAA, he should be up.

Why wouldn't the Indians trade V-Mart? They have catching in Shoppach and Santana, a legitimate 1B/OF/DH surplus (Sizemore, LaPorta, Choo, Crowe, Hafner, Garko).

Shapiro is NOT afraid to deal off vets. He dealt two last year at the deadline, and got a solid return on one and a great return on the other. The Indians NEED high upside pitching and trading a guy like V-Mart is a great way to get it.

V-Mart is not going to be cheap in terms of prospects, but honestly, I would play him at catcher and Murphy or Tatis (whichever one is not in the OF) at 1B. It would make the team better offensively than playing Schneider/Castro at C, V-Mart at 1B, and Murphy/Tatis sharing an OF spot.

"Alright listen up Mets fans. The Indians are NOT trading Victor. End of story. He's the leader of the clubhouse and the only leader they have left.

HOWEVER, I do think the Indians and Mets could match up for a trade.... for Ryan Garko. The Indians have a ton of 1B/DH options either in the MLB or in the minors and Garko will have to be dealt eventually. This is something I could definitely see happening.

But V-Mart... he's pretty much untouchable."
Exactly. Cleveland is playing Martinez at 1B and Shoppach at C.


"and Shoppach isn't considered ready to take the full-time job either"
Where were you last year?

Garko or LaRoache to NYM makes perfect sense.

FreeSide,

That's an intriguing idea, IF F-Mart is ready.

The question, however, is *should* the Mets deal for V-Mart.

I still hold my own that the Mets need starting pitching. The NL East is a very strong division. Livan Hernandez is a below average pitcher and Ollie is making himself a non-entity very, very quickly. He has a high BABIP, so he should get somewhat better, but his FIP is still above 6, he's being hit hard (LD%) and he's getting a ridiculously high percentage of flyballs. Hopefully he rebounds, or this had something to do with injury, but he was barely average in 2008. And he came into camp out of shape, if I'm right.

It would be stupid of Omar to deal for a guy like V-Mart and a pitcher because it would really deplete the farm IMO. What do y'all think?

Yeah I'm actually with you Melonis, I just think its one of the more interesting ideas that no one talks about. Part of the attraction with someone like V-Mart is, if you're willing to spend $7 mil on a catcher, he solves the problem next year too. But the truth is, Thole is raking in Double-A too, and just got a good grade from Kevin Goldstein on his defensive progress. IMO, he should be the catcher of the future.

I actually like Nick Johnson as a possibility, lots of OBP there, and he wouldn't cost much. Not a big LaRoche fan, I could see him coming in as a FA next year if the price was right and the Mets found a legit offensive upgrade from elsewhere, but I wouldn't deal anything significant for him. Huff, meh, middling career, he had a nice year last year and he's versatile. He'd be a nice picked if you can get him for nothing, but again, I wouldn't give up anything significant for him.

Also, Fernando's getting close, and its great that his power is finally translating into XBH, but he's not ready to be a full time big leaguer yet.

V-Mart is going NOWHERE, Mets fans stop dreaming because it aint happening on either end of that deal. The Mets would have to give up a lot of future potential and the Indians will not trade their leader. If its Cleveland, its Garko, its that simple.
-----------------

I live in Clevland. The only mlb roster player w/ the untouchable tag right now is Sizemore. The Indians are 9 games under .500 and we're no where near the half way mark. If by the all-star break that number has grown to an absurd mark where only a .650-.700 winning record after the break is there only hope of competing this year then I absolutely think that Shapiro will listen to any all offers. From a cost/return stand point, VMart is exactly the player they should trade. They're sitting on a very capable backup in Shoppach who, if given a chance can provide 20+ hr potential, plus they have Santana waiting in AA who is probably another 2 years away. Shoppach can keep his spot warm at a very modest cost. Garko, is another very capable full time player making a very modest salary of around $500k. He can move back into the 1B spot and probably produce a solid .270/.350 line w/ 15 to 20 hrs.

VMart has three extremely attractive traits that would make for a high return type of trade. He's posting explosive offensive numbers from a very defensive oriebted position, he's under control for all of 2010 and he's making less than market value for someone at his position and offensive production. He could easily command 12-15 mil per year in the open market this winter if he were a FA but is only earning $6 mil this year and $7 mil next year. The Indians could command 2 or 3 blue chip prospects and get it easily in the current market. I doubt they would trade him to Boston but I promise you Theo would jump on him in a second.

As for this whole, VMart is a leader thing, the Indians have shown that they will make the "tough" trades if it's in the best interest of the organization (see CC, Thome, Vizquel, Manny, etc). They were ALL fan favorites. Sizemore would be the only player that would cause riots in the streets of Ontario if he were traded.

I tell ya, I don't know if they would ever make an interstate trade but a nice deal for both teams would be:

Vmart for Mike Maloney and Homer Bailey. The Reds are contending and seem to be set with a very capable pitching staff but their lineup is flush with young and talented hitters, who aside from Votto, are horrible when it comes to OBP (10th in NL) and making contact (7th in NL in Batavg). VMart would provide both and would be great protection behind Votto in the #4 spot.

And Bailey and Maloney are ust the base of the trade. It could be sweetened by each team adding something else of need.

"just cuz the indians aren't playing up to potential this season doesn't mean they don't expect to play better next year. vmart is one of the better hitters in the league. the only reason you trade him away is if you think you're a few years away (which, in that division, nobody is) or if you think you can't resign him (which i don't think they believe). "

Did you even read my post? I don't think the Mets can just go plucking whatever player they want, but V-Mart has a $7 million option for next year, which is expensive for a catcher, and then he's a FA. Meanwhile, they have two other very good backstops in their organization who could make up one of the better duos in the game as early as NEXT YEAR in Santana and Shoppach. Why would they spend $5 mil+ on a veteran catcher when they can get nearly as much production by spending about 20% of that? That's how you run a small market team.

V-Mart may be one of the better hitters in the league, but he's also going into his mid-30s, and is due a payday that will probably exceed his actual value for the span of his next contract.

I do think the Indians are a better team than they've shown this year, their run differential is decent, but their bullpen has been atrocious. The division doesn't have a monster in it, but it doesn't have a whipping boy either, all five teams are legit competitors.

As for this whole, VMart is a leader thing, the Indians have shown that they will make the "tough" trades if it's in the best interest of the organization (see CC, Thome, Vizquel, Manny, etc).
----------

I know some of those guys were not trades but you get my point. They won't overpay or let a player walk for nothing if they feel it's in the best interest of the organization.

"Also, Fernando's getting close, and its great that his power is finally translating into XBH, but he's not ready to be a full time big leaguer yet."

Agreed. F-Mart has a TON of upside, and there's no reason to rush him up. I wouldn't be opposed to a September callup though.

Has Ollie started "rehabbing" in the minors yet (as in has he started to pitch yet), btw?

If so, how is he doing? His coming back decently and resembling league average is absolutely critical for that team.

Agreed 100% with everything you said YanksFan, except I honestly think Santana is even closer than two years away. Throw the batting average away, the dude has absolutely destroyed Double-A. He has a .945 OPS and he's actually been UNLUCKY. He has a .265 BABIP despite an 18.5 LD%. His command of the strike zone is stellar, he's drawn nearly twice as many walks as third strikes, that's completely absurd. His bat is probably big-league ready right now, IMO, its his polish behind the plate that he's still in the minors for. Next year, anything's possible, especially for an AL team that has a backup like Shoppach. They can ween Santana into the catching spot, keeping him in the lineup using the DH and letting Shoppach catch a good chunk of games.

Haven't heard a thing on Ollie, but I agree, a September look at Fernando would be nice. There's a chance you might want to get him up slightly earlier, depending on how Church handles the rest of the year and if F-Mart can show a bit more patience in Buffalo. But not too much earlier, just enough so that should the Mets make the playoffs, he'd be available to be on the roster if need be.

The other thing to remember about what Fernando's doing in Triple-A, he's doing it with a lineup completely barren of anything resembling legitimate support. The veteran hitters have been awful on that team, and Nick Evans was like 7 for 70 or something. Its hard to be that bad if you're trying.

IF the Indians are playing horrible baseball by the all-star break (i.e .400 winning %) then there's ZERO reason for them to be optimistic about 2010. There aren't too many great FA starters available next year and management has not shown the desire to splurge on expensive FA, especially if the team seems to be on the decline. Any trade to acquire a top notch mlb vet starter will require a boat load of prospects (Halladay, Oswalt, etc). Neither the trade for a major arm or the FA pickup seem likely for them. Lee might still prove himself to be a capable front of the rotation guy but after him Carmona, Pavano, Sowers, Reyes and Laffey are unproven and inconsistant. It's not like last year where the team was crippled with injuries to key players and Carmona was an enigma. Carmona is on the verge of having his 2nd consecutive bad year, Hafner is injury prone and VMart is having a career year which still isn't enough to pull them above .500 as of yet. WHy would Shapiro be optimistic with the talent they have on the major league staff, especially with the rotation? And there isn't any great mlb ready SP available on the AAA level either.

I don't think there is any reason to make a move yet. There is no reason Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis can't form a reliable platoon. Sheffield takes over right field (and he is starting to rake with regular playing time), with Church in right field, and Tatis/Murphy also rotating in at LF. I think you should atleast see how that works out before doing anything crazy. If you make a trade, it better not be giving anything of value up. Just go get a guy like Nick Johnson who can hit a little and play some defense.

That I actually disagree with YanksFan, the Indians have actually been the unluckiest team in baseball when you compare their record to their third order expected win total. They're winning percentage is actually just about .500 by third order wins. And this is something Shapiro will be keen on and understand well. They actually aren't completely out of it this year, but they need a really, really good week or two sooner than later. And they're definitely still a threat for next year.

I'm sorry what do you mean by "third quater wins"? Are you referring to the period right after the all-star break (July-August)?

Sorry, I mean "third order". WHat does that mean?

Can we PLEASE stop suggesting mediocre players like Ryan Garko or Adam LaRoche?

They really aren't any better then the Mets internal options like Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy. Gary Sheffield has been playing like the bargain of the offseason lately and Ryan Church is showing signs of picking up his play himself. They have pretty decent options there right now, it's not like they're desperate.

If the Mets are to trade for a 1B, it's got to be someone who is a legitimate middle of the lineup threat for it to make sense.

Sort of a sabermetric way of figuring out how lucky or unlucky a team has been using composites of various team stats.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

Totally agree with Adropofvenom. Tatis has done nothing but hit since he got called up to the Mets last year. Murphy's season line doesn't look very good right now, but that is in the midst of a 2-20 slump during a period of sporadic playing time. Murphy is a legit hitter. Maybe not for power, but he will definitely give you average, OBP, and doubles. Sheffield was sort of slept on, and he started off slowly, but he has come on in the last week and has given the Mets a .266/.398/.476 line for the year, doing most of that damage in the last week, since he has been getting consistent at bats. This team has good positional depth, and may be able to sustain the loss of Delgado by staying in house.

That said, if they go out and get Nick Johnson for nothing, I'm fine with that also. He is an injury risk, but he is also a really good offensive player, who can handle his position. If he goes down, the Mets still have the Tatis/Murphy/Evans depth there for a platoon.

What I don't understand is, people always acted as if Murph was going to take over first base in 2010 anyway. So, his time has come a few months earlier then expected, so what? Throw him in there, and lets go to work. If you were committed to giving him the spot next year, no reason to run out and get a replacement now.

A bad bullpen is a common culprit for a team that's way under-performing their third order wins like the Indians are right now, but even they should be expected to play a bit better than they have overall the rest of the way. But forgetting the fact that they're actually still not many games out of their division, they have four solid if unspectacular teams to pass to have a chance at the playoffs. They're far from out of it, but also very far from being in it.

The way I interpret it for the Indians is that they're close, but are going to have to have a drastic change in luck bullpen performance very quickly if they want a shot at contention this year. But next year is a clean slate, and the tweaks that would turn this team from about average to pretty damn good are small tweaks. They have a very decent young core and pitching they can build with, but they'll need to get somewhat creative to get their pitching up to snuff, especially the bullpen. A guy like V-Mart seems like the perfect candidate for said creativity. He could bring in some very legitimate prospects, and while he's been great, the the cost/value is probably going to be much, much higher to use Santana and Shoppach. You get about $5 million extra to play with, and you could get at least two very good prospects and one or two decent ones. And not "build for the future" prospects. LaPorta type "build for next year" prospects. If I'm Omar Minaya, Brad Holt might be on the table for V-Mart, depending on how other circumstances transpire. The only complete untouchables would probably be Nando and Havens. But a lot would depend on Delgado's long term status and whether or not Ollie's injury suck goes away.

couldn't agree with you more nrmax88. 2010, let Murphy become full time 1B, let Fernando Martinez get LF, (let him get RF if Church's contract is up after this year). I know Sheffield is gone after this year.

"What I don't understand is, people always acted as if Murph was going to take over first base in 2010 anyway. So, his time has come a few months earlier then expected, so what? Throw him in there, and lets go to work. If you were committed to giving him the spot next year, no reason to run out and get a replacement now."

Yeah this is really the difficult part. The thing about Murphy is that he's kind of a tweener. If he were slightly better defensively or had just a bit more power, he'd be a legit everyday guy. But as it is, with Delgado in the lineup, I think the move is to gamble on the power potential of Sheffield and Tatis as long as they're also getting on base. Murphy's a much safer bet in terms of consistently getting on base, but he doesn't have that power upside that the Mets lineup is really going to lack with no Delgado.

I think the talk about Murphy as the future first baseman is contingent almost as much on Fernando Martinez as it is on Daniel Murphy.

I still think that if LaROuche or Garko can be had w/o giving up top prospects then it wouldn't hurt to obtain them.

I hear David Ortiz is available cheap.

Oh sorry forgot to post this link on third order wins too, ranking teams this year so far:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/5/11/871845/finding-the-lucky-and-unlucky

BTW, Third Order Wins loves the Mets right now :).

The Yankees might be looking to unload that underperformer they picked up over the winter. Had some funny name. What the heck was it now?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

And there are various updated standings. Nice to see the Mets as the third best team in MLB by third order winning percentage. They've been playing really great lately.

Third order wins stats aside, the Indians have a very bad rotation after you get past Lee, who has been somewhat shakey this year. Laffey performed well in 3 out of 4 of his starts and I don't know why he was moved to the pen?

Combines Carmona, Pavano, Reyes and Sowers are 6-11 w/ an era around 6.65 and a bb/ko rate of 59/84 plus they avg only 5 innings per start. They are just not good enough to compete and save for Carmona, none of them have shown a pedigree of being a good starting pitcher in the last 2 years. Simply put, the pitching staff sucks and Lee is NO "Doc" Halladay, where you can pencil him in for 8 innings and a win every 5 days. Except for a few good position players what is there to be excited about with regards to this team this year or in 2010?

Now things can turn around and maybe the pitching improves and they find a way to compete sooner than later this year but if they continue to decline and are 15 games out by all-star break then I think it's time to make some smart trades and improve the talent pool. And I would suggest that Shapiro go after near ready talent rather than low A ball talent. This team does not need a complete overhaul, simply a talent replinishing, especially in the starting pitching department.

The Yankees might be looking to unload that underperformer they picked up over the winter. Had some funny name. What the heck was it now?
-------

You mean the guy named Teixeira who went 4 for 4 today with a 2 singles, 1 dble and homer and 4 rbi and has raised his bat avg 40 points this week and is hitting .286 for the month of May? That guy?

Yeah, I mean, the thing about the Indians rotation is it would make an awesome back end, but there's no front end. But, if you add one or two good arms to this team, they're suddenly a very dangerous threat. Their offense is going to be deadly as guys like LaPorta and Santana come into their own. So they have to take stock and move their surpluses around to balance out their roster. That's why I'm sure they'll at least mow the idea of shopping a guy like V-Mart, and they'll be looking for a guy like Brad Holt, who has top of the rotation upside and shouldn't be a very long-term project.

"I think the talk about Murphy as the future first baseman is contingent almost as much on Fernando Martinez as it is on Daniel Murphy."

I agree with this. Although, an OF of Murphy-Beltran-F-Mart would be very solid offensively and defensively if Murphy does what he's doing now and F-Mart hits his ceiling or even comes close.


"The only complete untouchables would probably be Nando and Havens."

You're one of the more educated Mets fans on here, but, out of curiousity, why would you give Reese Havens the "untouchable" status as opposed to Wilmer Flores? Flores has the much higher ceiling than Havens, although Havens is closer to MLB.

Well, partly because I just don't think he'd have been part of the discussion anyway. He's under-performing this year, and he's not a big help to a team looking for near-future help. So yeah, essentially, he is untouchable, but more because I doubt Shapiro would value him as highly as I would than just out of principle.

To me, Havens is a guy who looks like he's going to help the Mets at a position of need soonish. Flores as a wonderful talent, and almost certainly has more upside, but if there was a team looking to build long term who really liked Flores and was willing to offer up the right player with the right contract, Flores would be on the table, IMO. But yeah, that wouldn't be V-Mart.

And Havens FSL power is just silly. He could be a real offensive force and a legit Middle Infielder (though not a SS). If the power he's shown so far in his pro career is for real, combine that with his solid approach, which should translate into more consistent contact eventually, and Havens has some superstar potential himself. Flores, in all likelihood, won't be a MI, but assuming he can figure out the Sally League sooner than later, his bat could play just about anywhere.

The thing Shapiro has to consider about trading VMart to a team is this:

He's an extremely talented hitter period. However, he has infinite more value if he's traded to a team seeking a high production offensive catcher VS a team looking for a 1B bat. So a trade to the Mets where they might see him as a 1B probably would not return as much to a team like Boston, even though there's ZERO chance they would trade VMart to Boston.

Actually, the Mets could really use the versatility. They've currently got Omir Santos rostered, a 28 year old with a career .650 minor league OPS. He's done a decent job, but mark my words, he's this years Argenis Reyes, and a few months from now, it will be crystal clear. So you could make a case that V-Mart's versatility as a 1B/C makes him even more valuable to the Mets than a team just looking for a catcher.

Plus, both Brian Schneider and Ramon Castro are Free Agents after this year. Though Josh Thole is making very nice progress in the minors. He's never gonna be a huge power threat, but he's a lefty with a very nice approach, excellent contact skills, and apparently his defense is coming along.

Yes, Vmart does offer versatility but I'm not sure the Mets would be willing to overpay for that versatility compared to a team desperate for a offensive minded, defensive capable C like VMart.

In a category of C, VMart is among the elite. In the category of 1B he's not. If for some reason he had to move from C to 1B full-time he simply wouldn't be as valuable of a player.

But that's what I'm saying, I think he'd play C most days, and he'd give you the extra power needed to feel comfortable using Tatis and Murphy at 1B, but on some days, you also have the flexibility to give V-Mart some time at 1B to keep him fresh. I don't think he'd be a 1B upgrade, he'd be a C upgrade, and a very large one over Brian Schneider/Ramon Castro/Omir Santos.

Honestly, I'm torn, you're right, I don't think the Mets should overpay, and another team might be more willing to, but I would definitely at least throw my hat into the ring if Shapiro starts taking calls on Martinez.

In fact, if Shapiro plays it sharp, he might be able to wrangle the Mets and Phillies into a bidding war. They've both got systems containing players I could see the Indians coveting.

Yeah, that's why I was looking at it from Shapiro's perspective. He could fleece a team looking for offensive production from the C position. Cincinatti and FLorida would be great examples of teams that could use a veteran bat w/ power and a high OBP to settle the middle of their young lineups. They also have openings or low production from the C position. Also, if the Phillies wanted to get insane and dangle a nice package to Shapiro they could use an upgrade at C too. Their lineup is already top notch but Vmart would make them sick. They could slip Vmart in at #3 and move Utley behind Howard at #5 and Ibanez #6 and Werth #7...wow.

the mets can easily pull off a trade with the rockies and get garrett atkins to play either corner infield position. he has no real protection in the rockies line up and is available for cheap. he isnt even starting right now

I could see an outside chance of the Mets getting Martinez, but no way before end of July, and if they are going to make a move they are going to want to do so sooner.

The reason I see a chance, is I can see something similar to what happened with Santana develop- Indians reluctantly decide to test the market on Martinez, and find out that the big market clubs are already set at 1B and don't want to part with their best prospects, while the Mets are willing to provide quantity if not exactly great can't miss quality.

Of course, this all falls apart if the Red Sox decide they like Martinez as a catcher for a few seasons, or if the Giants decide to be the first club to ever have catchers batting 3rd, 4th, and 5th in their lineup (Sandoval, Martinez, Molina). Don't really see a great fit elsewhere.

Although, the deal is going to have to be for a hell of a lot more than what Met fans above have been posting- think Parnell and Murphy from the major league roster, and then at least two of the Mets better prospects (Holt, Fernando Martinez, Flores, etc.)

I see the Marlins and Reds as a great team to pursue VMart. If they are still contending by July then VMart makes a great veteran bat to settle in the middle of the lineup. The Reds and Marlins both have good mlb pitching and could afford to dangle a couple of really good minor league arms. I think top pitching prospects at the AA/AAA level is what Shapiro will demand in return.

White Sox should send Konerko away and acquire F-Mart

The thing with Martinez is he is getting older and no one really knows how long he can catch for.

jakec, if you want 2 guys on the MLB roster plus 2 better prospects, your insane(and im a yankee/dodger fan).

With the Giants(switching to the dodger side) wanting to acquire a bat, it wont be Martinez. Molina is a FA after this yr and he wants to catch, starting. However, the Gnats want to start Buster Posey at C with Sandoval at 3rd and Isicahwa(sp?) at 1st. Or Molina and posey spliting time catching 40-60(posey getting more) and Molina at 1st, but Molina wants to catch 130+ games/yr. My guess is Mets, Red Sox(if something is wrong with Ortiz, needing DL time), Yanks(Posada or Molina get hurt again), or even the Cubs if Soto continues to struggle and they decide he is a one-time-wonder.

White Sox should send Konerko away and acquire F-Mart

Posted by: Tough | May 16, 2009 at 10:43 PM
------

In the words of Damon Wayans..."Uhhhhh...nuh?"

Minaya would be shanked in the hallway with a shaved down pointy fungo bat handle prior to being allowed to pull the trigger on a deal like that. Konerko is off to a good start but F-Mart is an elite prospect. Mets could get Huff, Giambi, N. Johnson, LaRoche or Garko for way less than FMart and provide about the equal offense as Konerko.

I don't understand why everyone is debating the return of victor...there hasn't been a peep that he's available, and I'd be shocked if he gets moved. He's not expensive (although WAY to expensive for florida), and he's not in his walk year. Santana is playing pretty well in AA, but I doubt the Indians are ready to hand over the reins to him anytime soon. With Martinez, they have a perfect situation...when he proves at the MLB level he is taking that job, Victor can slide to first. If he's expendable at the deadline next year, maybe he gets traded...but no way is he moved right now, it makes no sense for cleveland.

Rich Aurilia from then Giants wont take much, also possibly Casey Blake from the Dodgers? How about Chad Tracy from Diamondbacks? Hank Blalock from the Rangers..Also im shocked that I brought this up but possibility of getting Mike Jacobs back from Royals!?.Chris Duncan does make alot of sense..NOW to the BIG name Derek Lee will be a fine addition to the Mets, HOW ABOUT Paul Konerko?

Yeah V-Mart's total speculation on my part, but moving him doesn't make "no sense". It makes quite a bit of sense. They have a very nice surplus at the position, and even if V-Mart is relatively cheap, saving $5 million is quite significant to a smaller market club. The downgrade in production you get with V-Mart/Shoppach vs. Santana/Shoppach next year is well worth saving that $5 million.

I say:

Mejia, Holt, Church, Ollie for Adrian Gonzalez.

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