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« Giants Option Burriss To Triple A | Main | Jonathan Sanchez's Trade Value Dropping »
Possible Type A Free Agents
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and we'll now be providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Today let's take a look at the 2010 free agents who would be Type A, if the season ended today. Click here for an explanation on free agent compensation.
Catchers
- Victor Martinez*
- Jason Varitek*
- Bengie Molina
First Base/Outfield/DH
- Matt Holliday
- Aubrey Huff
- Jason Bay
- Magglio Ordonez*
- Johnny Damon
- Bobby Abreu
- Jim Thome
- Jermaine Dye*
- Xavier Nady
- Randy Winn
Second Base/Third Base/Shortstop
- Marco Scutaro
- Orlando Cabrera
- Melvin Mora*
- Chone Figgins
- Miguel Tejada
- Orlando Hudson
- Troy Glaus
Starting Pitchers
- Cliff Lee*
- Vicente Padilla*
- Josh Beckett*
- Rich Harden
Relievers
- Octavio Dotel
- Jose Valverde
- Trevor Hoffman
- Billy Wagner*
- John Grabow
- Mike Gonzalez
- Kevin Gregg
- Ryan Franklin*
- Doug Brocail*
- Rafael Soriano
* denotes an option for 2010
Near the borderline of Type A/B status: Rod Barajas, Vladimir Guerrero, Placido Polanco, Adrian Beltre, John Lackey, Darren Oliver, Carlos Delgado, Randy Johnson, LaTroy Hawkins.
Of course, a lot can change between now and the end of the season. But it's interesting to see that players such as Guerrero, Beltre, and Lackey are no locks for Type A. Wondering about Erik Bedard? He has 69.259 of 100 points, while the lowest Type A American League starter has a 74.815 score. He's in the middle of the AL Type B starting pitchers at the moment. But if Bedard is traded to an NL club, he'll be ranked with that league's starters.
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Wow Tim, great job getting some very nice exclusive content. I knew you didn't abandon us :D
Posted by: alpha | June 16, 2009 at 07:46 PM
Who in there right mind is giving up a 1st round pick for Randy Winn, Orlando Cabrerea, Troy Glaus(because he's comming off major surgury), Vicente Padilla, Ocatvio Dotel, Billy Wagner(again i say this due to injury) or Doug Brocail.
Posted by: bravoboy10 | June 16, 2009 at 07:47 PM
Some of these players on the bubble between Type A and TYpe B may want to ease off the gas a little bit, lest they suffer from "ORLANDO SYNDROME".
No club wants to sign a borderline Type A and give up the compensation.....
Posted by: Tigerdog | June 16, 2009 at 07:51 PM
How far off is Brett Myers? I know with the injury now he can'y improve but then again, Wagner and Glaus are both hurt and on there
Posted by: wayne gomes | June 16, 2009 at 07:53 PM
Keep in mind that for draft pick compensation to happen, the player needs to be offered arbitration, turn it down, and sign elsewhere. Some of these guys will not be offered arbitration (Padilla, for example).
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 16, 2009 at 07:54 PM
Seems surprising Soriano would be a type A considering how little he pitched in 2008, somewhat of the case too for Gonzalez. I wonder if the Braves will take the 4 picks and let their best two guys walk? I'm hoping they extend at least one of them
Posted by: jc | June 16, 2009 at 07:58 PM
Tim, just curious, where does Tim Wakefield sit in the rankings? He has been incredibly good all year. He was solid last year, too. Is he only a Type B, or does he still not qualify?
Keep in mind that I in no way expect him to leave the Red Sox. Ever. I was just curious.
Posted by: soxfan93 | June 16, 2009 at 08:00 PM
Myers is a couple points shy of Type B status for NL starters.
Wakefield is right below Bedard as a Type B.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 16, 2009 at 08:02 PM
Yeah, but still the system just seems kind of flawed considering middle relievers with era's of 4 draw a 1st round pick just because they get played alot due to being on a mediocre team (Grabow, Dotel) and guys who may not even play this year can draw a type A pick. Granted they likely won't be offered arbitration but it still seems flawed, but with that being said what system isn't flawed or corrupt in some way.
Posted by: bravoboy10 | June 16, 2009 at 08:03 PM
Would Hideki Matsui fall under Type B?
Posted by: Chrys | June 16, 2009 at 08:04 PM
Thanks Tim.
And Chrys brings up a good point: if Matsui is offered arbitration, declines it, and signs with Japan, do the Yankees get any kind of compensation?
Posted by: soxfan93 | June 16, 2009 at 08:10 PM
I think it would have to be an MLB team, for Matsui. He is Type B, not terribly far from A. Can't see the Yanks offering arb, regardless.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 16, 2009 at 08:12 PM
ZERO chance Tejada gets offered arbitration. If the Astros want to get anything for him they better trade him.
Posted by: trevordchi | June 16, 2009 at 08:20 PM
How would Nady be a Type A if he has hardly played thus far this year? Wouldn't his injury affect his status. It's hard to tell if the Yankees would offer him arbitration. His injury doesn't really warrant it, but he hasn't really had the opportunity this year.
Posted by: Jeff Levy | June 16, 2009 at 08:21 PM
Tim, has he figuered out the DL adjustement yet? I know people have had trouble with that in the past.
Posted by: 86 Mets | June 16, 2009 at 08:33 PM
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees offer Nady arbitration. They've got two outfielders coming off next season and it might be nice to have a known quantity out there with some question marks out there.
Posted by: 0bsessions | June 16, 2009 at 08:41 PM
rofl @ O-Cab being a type A
Posted by: PL | June 16, 2009 at 08:43 PM
Is Mora a club, team, or mutual option?
Posted by: Markakis21 | June 16, 2009 at 08:45 PM
wouldn't delgado definitely be A? He is almost automatic 30-40 hr's 95 + rbi's when healthy the last three years
Posted by: johan is GOD | June 16, 2009 at 08:46 PM
Eddie did figure out the DL adjustment. Rankings only look at 2008-09, and as of right now Delgado is not an A. Mora is a club option.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 16, 2009 at 08:55 PM
Tim, where does Randy Wolf currently stand? Considering that he has been healthy the last two years and is pitching well this year I figure he must be at least somewhat close to Type A status. Thanks.
Posted by: Brendan Scolari | June 16, 2009 at 08:58 PM
Wolf is a B at 66.927, with the lowest A at 70.052. So a few more good months and he could make it.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 16, 2009 at 09:11 PM
Tim, is there like a site you know of or something that has up to date rankings on the players current standing? Thanks
Posted by: bravoboy10 | June 16, 2009 at 09:15 PM
Will you be posting the list like Eddie did on his blog?
Posted by: Telemachus | June 16, 2009 at 09:45 PM
Where's Mark DeRosa figure on this list? DeRosa had a fine season last year and is on pace for a better year this year.
And does anyone remember if Orlando Hudson has a clause in his contract that states the Dodgers cannot offer him arbitration?
Posted by: NickEustrom | June 16, 2009 at 09:48 PM
Might post the full list at some point...gotta figure out the best way to do it. For now, just interesting chunks.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 16, 2009 at 10:00 PM
This list does not make sense. How can all those injured players be considered Type A but Vlad and Lackey aren't? And really why is Vicente Padilla on the list? The guy is a complete assclown and intentionally hits batters anytime they hit a homer off him.
Posted by: RAWbert | June 16, 2009 at 10:18 PM
Grabow's a Type A? Neal, please let him go if that's the case. :)
Posted by: Ian Smell | June 16, 2009 at 10:22 PM
What about Felipe Lopez? He's at least a B, right?
Posted by: jdub | June 16, 2009 at 10:25 PM
Understood. It would be great to see the current type B list.
Posted by: Telemachus | June 16, 2009 at 10:34 PM
Mark DeRosa must be an egregious error, right?
Posted by: dink | June 16, 2009 at 10:37 PM
What a rotten potential class of type A FA. The best of the bunch V Mart, Beckett and Cliff Lee all have options with the exception of Bay, Holliday and maybe Damon and Lackey who is not doing well at all this year. I figured Carl Crawford would be a type A also, but don't see him on this list and he has a 9M +/- club option anyway for 2010.
Not a good year to look for help via FA.
Posted by: johns | June 16, 2009 at 10:59 PM
Felipe Lopez: just barely a B right now. DeRosa and Crawford are in the middle of the Bs for their respective positions.
Will put up a Type B list on Wednesday.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 16, 2009 at 11:03 PM
Tim,
Mark DeRosa was ranked as a type A for last years rankings. Any reason why that would change now, considering he's having a better year? Is it the switch to the AL? Position qualification?
Posted by: NickEustrom | June 16, 2009 at 11:06 PM
Gonzalez's stock is sharply falling as he's given up 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning thusfar tonight. Still pitching. Still experiencing the same command issues that plague him every outing. Why isn't Rafael Soriano the Braves closer again?
Posted by: PWHjort | June 16, 2009 at 11:12 PM
Almost none of the eligible free agents accepted arbitration this past winter. Darren Oliver was an exception. Of those that did, only three went to a hearing.
Agents and clubs have such a good beat on what a player will get nowadays, that they get out their charts, look at the comps, and come to an agreement within the parameters.
I suspect that there are many players that wish they had accepted arby, rather than take what they got on the open market. And I suspect that there will be more willing to accept arby this winter, even though they're not too keen on a one year deal.
Posted by: Tigerdog | June 16, 2009 at 11:43 PM
I think that the market has shifted quite a bit. If the economy holds I bet few teams will offer arbitration to their players. When guys like Abreu are getting 1/5 offers players have to realize that multi-year deals just aren't that likely (with exception to younger/top tier talent).
When you take the probability of getting multiple years off the table then the players are often times better off going through the arb process for their one year deal.
Posted by: bjsguess | June 17, 2009 at 12:36 AM
Tim...I am just curious how Type A agents are classified. Varitek was a type A this past offseason after 2+ years or poor poor production and according to this he will be a type A again after another poor year.
Posted by: yanks09 | June 17, 2009 at 12:54 AM
"according to this he will be a type A again after another poor year."
Consider the rest of the offensive production of catchers around the league as well and defense does not count as i recall yanks09. 'Tek's early season offensive power output may have helped, but those numbers have slowed down some and anyway, his split club/personal option is pretty cheap anyway at 4/5M and will probably get picked up by one or the other anyway.
Posted by: johns | June 17, 2009 at 01:48 AM
HOW IT WORKS:
-Players are divided into ten categories, five in each league: Catchers, OF/DH/1B, 2B/3B/SS, Starting pitchers, and relief pitchers.
-Elias sports bureau calculates the rankings based on a formula, using mostly offensive statistics, and a two year average is used. (At the end of June, about 75% of the data will be complete, I think).
-All players are ranked, not just the free agents. The top 20% in each category are Type A, the next 20% are Type B.
-In order to receive compensation, a club must offer arbitration to the player before December 1st.
-If a player is signed before Dec. 1st, compensation is automatically given, if it's due according to the rankings.
- One reason that a player may NOT want arbitration is because arbitration awards are always for one year, and they never contain any no trade clauses, incentive clauses, or special terms that players can often bargain for.
- One reason a player would want arbitration is because experience counts big time, and a player's salary almost never goes down from the previous year, even if his performance has dropped off.
- Thus the calculated risk that many players take in declining arbitration is that they'll be able to get a multi year deal. Since the vast majority of free agents are in their thirties, this is very important to them.
Hope that's helpful.
Posted by: Tigerdog | June 17, 2009 at 07:39 AM
Beltre & Lackey(And Delgado/Vlad as DH's) could be type B's?
Can anyone say bargain?
I need pitching or a 3B this off season I would be rubbing my hands.
Posted by: OhPityMe | June 17, 2009 at 08:42 AM
LMAO @ OCab's Type A status.
This guy is putting up release-worthy numbers.
A lot of the Type A relievers on noncontenders will probs be traded, hopefully.
Posted by: melonis rex | June 17, 2009 at 09:35 AM
I think I am having a brainfart here. Can a team still offer arbitration to an impending FA even if they don't qualify as A or B?
Posted by: wayne gomes | June 17, 2009 at 09:58 AM
More on Elias' formulas:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/10/stats-used-for.html
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 17, 2009 at 11:17 AM
Wayne gomes-
Yes they can, but they don't get any compensation for the player if they sign with another team.
Posted by: jdub | June 17, 2009 at 01:10 PM
I still don't understand how Tek is a type A though. Are the rankings based on the free agents available or every player at their position. Because Tek is not only horrible offensively but defensively as well.
Posted by: yanks09 | June 17, 2009 at 04:16 PM
I still don't understand how Tek is a type A though. Are the rankings based on the free agents available or every player at their position. Because Tek is not only horrible offensively but defensively as well.
Posted by: yanks09 | June 17, 2009 at 04:16 PM