Rosenthal On Guthrie, Rangers, Glaus

Id love to see a return to Toronto for Glaus as a DH even though I know JP is looking for a lefty masher, Glaus hits right handed pitching real well so if he proves he can swing the bat well, I say give it a whirl.

Guthrie could make sense for a number of teams looking for starting pitching, I would think the Dodgers could get that deal done in exchange for a young starter prospect. But I would imagine a number of teams would be in the hunt.

I really think that Guthrie is overrated, and if teams gave up a haul for him they'd probably end up quite disappointed.

He's posted good ERA's in the AL East the past two years (3.70 and 3.63, respectively), but he's been incredibly lucky.

His FIP's have been 4.41 and 4.53 in those same two years, and his FIP has skyrocketed to 5.51 this season. Batters posted a .272 BABIP against him in 2007-2008, which is a level that simply can't be sustained.

He throws power stuff (92-96 FB velo) but his control isn't great and he gives up a good number of home runs, and he's already given up 13 in 66 innings so far this season.

Guthrie is a decent pitcher because he's got good raw stuff, and the move to the NL could probably help him a good deal, but he's definitely not a top of the rotation starter and probably slots in best as a fourth starter on a good team.

"I am curious to know what top starting pitcher the Rangers would pursue. Bedard or Peavy do not seem likely."

My guess is that they sign Ben Sheets when he's healthy in August, if that's an option, but otherwise they'll probably be in on some lesser pitchers, maybe like Brad Penny.

"To me Guthrie is very similar to Joe Blanton, and thats about the package the O's could expect."

Blanton had a much better track record before being traded to Philly.

He posted improving FIP's of 4.43, 4.16 and 3.50 in his three previous years before getting traded.

Blanton doesn't throw as hard as Guthrie, but he has superior command and avoids fly balls and the long ball a lot more.

From 2005-2008, Blanton was worth about 3.43 WAR per season, while Guthrie has been worth 2.55 WAR in 2007-2008. Blanton has a longer, and more impressive, track record.

"Blanton doesn't throw as hard as Guthrie, but he has superior command and avoids fly balls and the long ball a lot more."

This gives an idea of how awful the Orioles rotation actually is, when their O's #1 is compared to a #4 starter. If Guthrie is only able to get back what Blanton was, then the O's might as well keep Guthrie with what little they have starter wise, with only him and Uehara as adept in the rotation this year.

Might be time for the O's to seriously try and trade Huff, maybe Scott also and try and get prospective rotation pieces back.

Sorry scribble I guess I should have been more clear, I meant to say Guthrie's value is equal to Blanton's value, when you consider the contract and all that. Guthrie is hitting his Arb. years next year, while Blanton was in his first year. Guthrie's making about 1/6 of what Blanton made last year. Also Guthrie's numbers are inflated due to the AL EAST and OPACY, check out their ERA+ numbers, Guthrie has 125 the last two years, Blanton's best was in 2005.