Discussion: When Is "Now" For The Blue Jays?

Hire a magician to make Vernon Well's contract disappear.

When they change divisions.

Red Sox and yanks are teams that have the money and the farms that a rebuilding "year" means they were third in the division. Now the Rays are a competitive team for at least a few more years, maybe perpetually depending on how well the team is run. Add to it, the Orioles have a young core in the minors that makes them interesting in (coincidentally) 2001.

The truth is the Jays in any other division would be a perpetually leader and most of the time for the first half of the year they're neck and neck with the rest of the AL East... but they can't keep up.

As a Jays supporter, I think they can win next year. It's not likely, but if they have Halladay, a similarly healthy lineup and a remotely healthy pitching staff (unlike this year) then they could make noise in the playofffs if Snider joins Lind and Hill as the team's best hitters.

Lots of ifs in there, but it's possible and the Jays should have plenty of marketable pitching depth to help plug holes this offseason.

The Jays are in the top half of the AL in run differential and are severely under-performing their Pythagorean W/L record and this is with approximately 90 pitchers on the DL and losing their number 2 starter to a division rival. Their entire opening day rotation has been on the DL at some point this season.

They also had the 2nd best Pythagorean record in the AL last season. Obviously, that isn't the be all and end all of it, but this "they can't compete in the division" stuff is complete BS. They've just been completely unlucky.

Being a Jays fan, it's frustrating as hell to watch this team on a day-to-day basis, because I know they're better than they look now and I know people will just brush off the hot start as a fluke, when I think how they were playing then is closer to their true talent level than the past 6 weeks have been.

2011, IMO. Trading Halladay at the deadline for a massive haul of elite talent really, really helps.

The Jays have a very good team and have a very good chance to win soon the AL East is the best Division in all of baseball and Bitey I understand frustration lately with the way our bull-pen has been pitching its frustrating to watch a win turn into a loss even when you have a 8,9 run lead when you hand the game to the bullpen, just grit through the BS they will be a contender next year probably.

Halladay won't bring in 'three or four significant pieces...' One team surely doesn't have that many key players just sitting in the minors waiting to be traded. And if they did, why would they trade them, when they can be used for their own club's success in two or three years? Halladay's price has to come down for trades to be realistic. And until the Jays really have incentive to trade him, he won't be traded. He's still affordable for another year. Moreover, he's a type A free agent so when he's signed by another team Toronto can use those extra draft picks to draft to their needs, rather than trying to find a partner who happens to have the pieces the Jays are looking for stored away in the minors waiting for a deal like this to come along.

So 'rebuilding' with just Halladay isn't really an option. It'll have to be all or nothing (see Florida Marlins). Scott Rolen, Lyle Overbay, Alex Rios?, and others would have to be traded for prospects as well. Dumping Vernon Wells' contract would also be huge.

If not, the Jays will probably be stuck fielding mediocre-good teams that always seem to finish behind the Yanks and Sox (And Tampa Bay, until they run out of stud prospects and return to the cellar).

God i wish we could stop talking about this. Every rumor on this site is about Roy Halladay. He probably won't even be traded. Why would they trade him now when he can finish the season, win a Cy Young, and have even more trade value?

God i wish we could stop talking about this. Every rumor on this site is about Roy Halladay. He probably won't even be traded. Why would they trade him now when he can finish the season, win a Cy Young, and have even more trade value?

Posted by: ChiSoxKilla23 | July 15, 2009 at 08:55 PM

How on earth would his trade value be better at the end of the year? With a Cy Young? Cmon everybody knows how good Halladay is he doesn't need another Cy Young award to prove that. It would just be another feather in his cap... he is at peak value right now and the price would lower automatically in the offseason because he would only have 1 year on his deal left, not 1 1/2.

God i wish we could stop talking about this. Every rumor on this site is about Roy Halladay. He probably won't even be traded. Why would they trade him now when he can finish the season, win a Cy Young, and have even more trade value?

Posted by: ChiSoxKilla23 | July 15, 2009 at 08:55 PM

By waiting until the offseason, Halladay will LOSE value, not gain it. He'll be in the last season of his contract, and I highly doubt he takes a discount for his new club. Any team that acquires him now gets to make two stretch runs while he's reletively cheap...by waiting until the offseason they get only one. As the article says, there will be plenty of other options available this offseason. There's little else available right now. Winning another award from the media isn't going to change any GM's perception of his value.

Prospects get you fired.

Prospects get you fired.

Posted by: nymforlife | July 15, 2009 at 09:07 PM

Jim Duquette? Or is this Steve Phillips?

"Halladay won't bring in 'three or four significant pieces...' One team surely doesn't have that many key players just sitting in the minors waiting to be traded. And if they did, why would they trade them, when they can be used for their own club's success in two or three years?"
-------------------------
One would hope any Halladay trade would trump the Erik Bedard trade (who does not belong in Halladay's class).

It seems like the Phils are a good fit if it brings back a ss, 1 or 2 starters and 1 or 2 outfielders.

From the Phils perspective I am sure they would like to keep Drabek and/or Taylor, but if they offer one of those along with Brown and maybe the catcher (Marson?) and Knapp maybe they should go for it?

Just seems like the few other teams that can offer up the prospects are limited by money or desire to unlooad that many young guys.

I guess we will find out soon...

The jays aren't in as in bad a shape as Say, the Nats,; i'd say they're like the orioles. They should trade halladay for as many top prospects as they can get, and look forward to being relevant in 2-3 years. Small market team means success comes with home grown talent that is cheaper, albeit, slower to acquire.

I think the Jays are built to compete for 2010 if Marcum and Litsch could come back healthy and effective. There staff could be one of the better ones in baseball next year. If Wells and Rios could have bounce back years and maybe if they can pick up a productive first basemen I would not rule them out.

Nobody thought the Rays could do what they did, so why not the Jays?

The harsh reality is that the best the Jays can hope for over the next two years with the pieces they have isn't enough to win the AL East. They need to start rebuilding for a real run, and I'm kind of surprised that they didn't pull the trigger this past offseason. They basically made no moves, which kind of indicates that they were hoping their (good, not great) team would magically outperform the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees. If they want a real shot at the postseason, they need to build a team for 2011... which involves trading Halladay while his value is highest (now), and personally I think the best return they could ask for is getting out from under Vernon Well's ridiculous contract. His salary is going to be about 1/4 to 1/3 of their yearly payroll from 2011 to 2014, which will pretty much kill any hope of building a strong enough team during the target period we're talking about. Taking on another bad 1-2 year contract could help facilitate that, and consider it a part of rebuilding.
If Ricciadri isn't willing to take the plunge, the Jays are most likely doomed to 3rd and 4th place finishes for the foreseeable future.

Well I see the sawks are auditioning Bukholtz for the Jays this weekend.

Phils don't have the money.

So it's Yanks and Sawks: both have plenty of prospects. Let the bargaining begin. I say he's in pinstripes along with either wells or rios.

I hate trading yankee players but obviously Joba or Phil or somebody good is gone. If we take Wells they take Igawa.

The simple fact is that you can't let the best starting pitcher walk when you need another starting pitcher. Beckett/Lester/Halladay -- start polishing that WS trophy. Sabathia/Burnett/Halladay? That takes the Yanks all the way. You think they balk at spending more money. If they don't spend it, Cash is guaranteeing a win with another strategy. Hate to be in his shoes. Spend all that money and NOT make it? Priceful.

By 3-4 key pieces, I don't think they mean 3-4 elite top prospects. 3-4 pieces period. Probably 1-2 elite top flight prospects, but a few strong throw-ins. In most trades a "throw-in" is an organizational depth or a "Project" guy, but this one it probably won't be. A guy like an Edwin Jackson a few years ago? Or an Adrian Gonzalez when he was with the Rangers? Or when the Tigs were shopping Carlos Pena? Luke Scott or Sherrill for the Os big trades? Something like that.

Only if Halladay openly agrees to extend with that team acquiring him can Riccardi seriously field offers. That probably won't happen with his agent advising he wait for the mighty Stankee $$$ after 2010 but it's convenient for Riccardi if he were too.

We've already had "Hustlers Duo" (Tex and his jerk agent Scotty Boris) open Pandoras Box of hustling up baseball over it, while this ridiculous greed created will make for another attempt.

Joel Sherman acknowledged agreeing upon my call into MLB radio in December, 2008 where I said the leading circumstances may pressure Riccardi to unload Halladay for that moment's opportunity to bolster the team's future, BTW.

I would swap out Schafer with Freddie Freeman. Schafer seems like the next Josh Anderson to me.

truth is "now" for the Blue Jays was three-four years ago
not necessarily as in trading halladay but as in thinking ahead for the future.
problem is they were hung up on "now"
as in we can compete now.
then they stupidly went all keeping-up-with-the-joneses with a tunnel-vision "look, we can sign players to humongous contracts, too"
meanwhile, by focusing on the Yanks and Sox they were completely blindsided by the Rays — and to a lesser extent, the O's — accumulating young talent.

by the way, their throwing money at "name" players is a Toronto thing. Their hockey team, the Maple Leafs, did the same thing to even worse results.

the jays need to sell on Rolen while he's hot, Scutaro, too, even if they don't have a young shortstop in the wings. Overbay is borderline. they can keep him as a solid vet or see what they can get.
rios is virtually untradable because his contract now far outweighs any drooling his five-tool potential once held.

wells is more of a mystery as to how he fell off his upper-echelon five-tool perch. injuries explains some of it, but he should be past that.
unless they can do a soriano-fukudome for wells-rios with the cubs (another team that thought throwing money at ivory walls was the way to go) they are stuck with them.

The best thing to do would be to find a team who has bad 1 or 2 year contracts, take them on and prospects for Ha;;aday and Wells, so in 2 years when teh bad contracts are up, they can sign free agents. Also they would need to send money along with Wells, but its probably worth it.

The Jays can trade Halladay and get the 3-4 best prospects any team has and they still wont be competitive in the AL East any time soon.
The Red Sox and the Yankees always come to win and Tampa is way better at developing their draft picks into exceptional baseball players.

Even with 8 starters having spent time on the DL, the Jays would be right in it if they had any situational hitting over the last month and a half.

i dont think there is a realistic way the blue jays can start putting up a fight for at least 4 seasons.

This should be an all out revamp. I would trade everyone in sight. If the player is older than 30 years old, send him off.

Make Adam Lind and Aaron Hill the corner stones of your team.

I would trade Roy Halladay to the Angels for Brandon Wood, Sean Rodriguez and 3 lower level prospects.

Then eat half of Vernon Wells' contract and trade him off for a few quality prospects.

Trade away Accardo for a few young bullpen type arms.

Trade Scott Rolen to the Red Sox for a few prospects, hopefully some of the young middle infield depth they have.

then you roll out a team based around Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Travis Snyder, Brandon Wood, Sean Rodriguez, Alex Rios and then you have young guys coming up through the system.

Yes, it is risk to pay out bad contracts like this, but there is no reason not to try to save some money and get good prospects in return.

The blue jays have to realize they are behind EVERYONE in the AL EAST...Every team has a brighter future and they seem to be doing little about it.

hey, The Atomic Punk...

Schafer is NOT Anderson.

If you look at Schafer's stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=schafe001jor

they are MUCH better than even Sizemore's:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sizemgr01.shtml?redir

so, at least know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.

Maybe Wood for Wells otherwise your halos have no chance as all your prospects are no longer valuable to anyone cuz you sat on them too damn long!

I say that if someone doesn't blow them away with an offer they keep him for the remainder of the year.

Halladay has said numerous times over the years that he won't negotiate contract extensions during the season; it's all about the game and business is left for the off-season.

They can negotiate and trade him with a 3-4 year contract extension. He will be worth more to a team that knows they're going to have him for the next 4-5 years.

Anyone who thinks the contract will be outrageous , think CC, doesn't know 'Doc'. He's not about the money as evidenced by the home town discount he has given the Jays in his last two contracts. Hell, he doesn't even open his pay cheque; he hands it to his wife. He said that it just doesn't feel right making the kind of money he does.

I say keep him

This is coming from a huge Jays fan. Nothing ever seems to come together for us in the same year and it is frustrating. Two years ago we had great pitching and no hitting. This year the hitting improved slightly and all our pitchers went on the DL. I am getting tired of this team and I do not think we can depend on similar great seasons from our veterans like Rolen, Scutaro and Overbay. Although I do think Lind and Hill are for real. Can we really count on Hill to have a 40HR pace next year as well? I am tired of being disappointed by these players every year and would like to have a chance with some new guys. The only way we can do that is by trading Halladay now, if we keep him there is still too many questions for next season. That said, if there was someway to trade Halladay and as a condition of the trade swap divisions with another team that would be great. I would do that and not even expect a player in return for Roy.

They Jays need middle of the order bats and a future ace.

The only way for them to do so would be for them to develop them internally. Hopefully Travis Snider can make the jump and get them that consistent 30+ HR power that they desperately need. Adam Lind is looking pretty good too but I remember Vernon Wells and Alex Rios having stellar offensive seasons before too and not panning out consistency-wise.

The Jays have been putting out too much mediocrity to contend and they need to quit that tendency. The Lyle Overbays and Scott Rolens of this world are great but only if you have the luxury of having superstars around to make up for it.

They need to trade Roy Halladay, Marco Scutaro, Lyle Overbay, etc. and try to get some high-quality prospects. Send some of their major league-ready pitchers in order to net a better haul if they have to.

I also don't think it's worth it to limit the return on Halladay simply to get rid of Vernon Wells. Try to get the best you can get and worry about Wells this offseason. I'd rather make a fiscal risk on Wells and take the chance that he can post a .800+ OPS to warrant his contract then to get a B-level prospect when I could have gotten an A-level one.

Rosario/Hammel/Chacin/Gomez/low level pitcher for Halladay?