Stephen Strasburg Rumors: Monday

Im really not seeing the huge leverage all the sportswriters are saying that Strausburg and Boras have. He can go back to college and thats about it. Boras isnt going to put him in independent league or in Japan where he has just as big of risk of getting hurt and wont make 10% of what he would in the MLB. If he holds out hes going to be a hated man in the MLB. If he goes back to college and enters the draft again next year the Nationals can just draft him again since theyll have 2 of the first 3 picks.

They can't draft him again without his consent....but I agree that I don't see where they are getting leverage.

Really? I didnt know that.
Either way, by going into the draft next year Strausburg and Boras lose since he will no longer be the first pick and he wont get first pick $$. I still dont see him ever getting a better offer than he is getting right now.

Really? I didnt know that.
Either way, by going into the draft next year Strausburg and Boras lose since he will no longer be the first pick and he wont get first pick $$. I still dont see him ever getting a better offer than he is getting right now.

Posted by: Zero | August 17, 2009 at 09:19 AM
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I don't think that will have any effect. Strasburg is an exception and his draft position will have no effect on the bonus he will seek, similar to Teixiera and Prior a few years ago.

With the injury nexus for young hard throwing pitchers I would think it would be unwise for Strasburg to turn down $20m+ if it was on the table but I certainly don't hold it against him for trying to get as much value as he can. Hopefully he will sign.

This is why we should take Boras out behind the shed and shoot him.

Did you know he represents the three top picks in the draft and all of them are still unsigned? What does that tell you? There is no way these picks should be getting more money than veterans - - they haven't even thrown a pitch or swung a bat in the big leagues yet.

I couldnt agree more.. its beyond ridciulous that rookies out of high school or college are demanding this kind of money.
MLB and the NFL need to use the same system the NBA has where the salary for rookies is determined by where the player is drafted.. This way teams like Pittsburgh, Washington etc. can actuallly draft the best players.
Case in point is Porcello falling to the late 20's several years back for signability issues. The worse teams should be able to draft the best players without shelling out a fortune to get them

So you would rather the billionnaire owners get to kept their money than allow a high school or college kid to negotiate a bonus that is still likely only a fraction of their actual value to the MLB team?

Posted by: DeJay | August 17, 2009 at 10:05 AM

How can you even begin to estimate his value to the MLB team when he has yet to face any formidable MLB quality hitters?

If he doesn't sign, I hope he blows out his arm this offseason. What goes around comes around.

Amazing thing is Boras won't care. He'll have a fresh batch of top 10 talent the next year. As much as he trys to maximize value for these guys, he does not maximize what is necessarily best for these guys.

Also, I agree, all of this money for speculative talent is crazy. MLB Draft is becoming strikingly similar to the NFL Draft. Not good.

mmontice

At least in football a wide receiver can get drafted and step right into the starting line up and produce. 1 in a million drafted baseball players do that.

Strassburg is not worth a contract that proven players like ARam,Abreu or Hunter have gotten. History over the last 20 years shows the #1 pick has not always lived to potential. See below
FrRnd 1 Nationals Stephen Strasburg RHP San Diego State University (San Diego, CA)
2008 1 FrRnd 1 Rays Tim Beckham (minors) SS Griffin HS (Griffin, GA)
2007 1 FrRnd 1 Rays David Price LHP 1 3 0 .333 .667 19 5 5 4.60 1.45 0 Vanderbilt University (Nashville, TN)
2006 1 FrRnd 1 Royals Luke Hochevar RHP 3 8 0 .000 .000 42 12 19 5.42 1.43 0
2005 1 FrRnd 1 D'backs Justin Upton SS 254 888 37 .268 .833 Great Bridge HS (Chesapeake, VA)
2004 1 FrRnd 1 Padres Matthew Bush (minors) SS Mission Bay HS (San Diego, CA)
2003 1 FrRnd 1 Rays Delmon Young OF 416 1598 32 .287 .726 Adolfo Camarillo HS (Camarillo, CA)
2002 1 FrRnd 1 Pirates Bryan Bullington RHP 6 3 0 .333 .667 13 0 5 5.08 1.56 0 Ball State University (Muncie, IN)
2001 1 FrRnd 1 Twins Joe Mauer C 653 2412 66 .326 .887 Cretin HS (St. Paul, MN)
2000 1 FrRnd 1 Marlins Adrian Gonzalez 1B 656 2433 129 .282 .867 Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, CA)
1999 1 FrRnd 1 Rays Josh Hamilton OF 316 1180 59 .292 .872 Athens Drive HS (Raleigh, NC)
1998 1 FrRnd 1 Phillies Pat Burrell 3B 1388 4812 261 .255 .843 University of Miami (Coral Gables, FL)
1997 1 FrRnd 1 Tigers Matt Anderson RHP 22 0 0 257 15 7 5.19 1.58 26 Rice University (Houston, TX)
1996 1 FrRnd 1 Pirates Kris Benson RHP 162 316 1 .130 .336 203 69 74 4.41 1.39 0 Clemson University (Clemson, SC)
1995 1 FrRnd 1 Angels Darin Erstad OF 1629 5997 124 .282 .745 University of Nebraska (Lincoln, NE)
1994 1 FrRnd 1 Mets Paul Wilson RHP 97 184 1 .103 .271 170 40 58 4.86 1.45 0 Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL)
1993 1 FrRnd 1 Mariners Alex Rodriguez SS 2127 8166 574 .304 .964 Westminster Christian HS (Miami, FL)
1992 1 FrRnd 1 Astros Phil Nevin 3B 1217 4188 208 .270 .814 California State University, Fullerton (Fullerton, CA)
1991 1 FrRnd 1 Yankees Brien Taylor (minors) LHP East Carteret HS (Beaufort, NC)
1990 1 FrRnd 1 Braves Chipper Jones SS 2125 7690 423 .310 .953 The Bolles School HS (Jacksonville, FL)
1989 1 FrRnd 1 Orioles Ben McDonald RHP 1 1 0 .000 .000 211 78 70 3.91 1.26 0 Louisiana State University (Baton Rouge, LA)
as you can see there is very few that have lived to hype
of being #1 most have been a bust or very average careers

DEJAY...it isn't about the owners keeping their money. It is ALL about this kid having done exactly NOTHING in pro ball but wanting TEN times what Bobby Abreu got in 2009.

Can you not see the problem?

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No frankly I do not see the problem, because that has absolutely nothing to do with it. Because Abreu was underpaid then Strasburg should be too? How about Barry Zito or Vernon Wells - I think most of us can agree who we'd rather have on our team out of those two and Strasburg. From your reasoning should Strasburg not be paid as much as them?

Facing college players is far, far different than facing major league talent. Let's not crown this guy already.

I agree fully with Ryno23. Zito and Wells are completely overpaid but they were given stupid contracts after proving themselves in the bigs. Heck Zito was a Cy Young winner and one of the most dominant pitches in the AL, who would have thought that he would have fallen so hard in the NL? What has Strasburg done as of yet? He fanned 10 in Utah. He has huge upside with a 103 mph fastball. But fireballers get hurt and burn out quick. Look at the current rookie bonus record holder Prior, and what happened to him, where is he playing now? 12 to 17 mil is Far more then enough. if he is as good as Boras says he is and can stay healthy he will get a MONDO contract when he hits free agency, until then suck it up and be happy with 20million jacka$$

I have a question for everyone but especially those writing strokemberg SHOULD get $25 or $30 million or more.

At what level of contribution is the contract deemed a success or failure?

I predict he'll turn down the Nats, declare his undying love for the Yankees, and sign with them for 500,000 dollars.

I hope this leads to the breaking point and forces the MLB to fix the busted draft system

:rofl: at the people who say Zito deserves his money more than Strasburg deserves his.

A bonus is a bonus - the kid would still be under team control for at least 6 years. If this bonus buys out his arbitration years (as they'd do if they're smart), $20M for 6 years is a smart deal for a talent like Strasburg.

I guess these same people were whining about Longoria's deal last year, since he hadn't 'proven himself' yet. Tools is tools.

If MLB sets a hard slotting system, you can guarantee that these Strasburg/Harper level talents would find it worthwhile to play in Japan instead of the US.

Here is another issue that Strassburg might face if he does sign. Draft position next year. Here is a rundown of the current draft.
1.Washington
2.KC
3.Pittsburgh
4.Baltimore
5.San Diego
6.Cincinatti
We can exclude Wash as they probably would try again.
Baltimore has the highest payroll 18th overall from the remaining 5.
All 5 teams have been know ot be cheap.
So next year even tho talented Strassburg might be 6th or lower 1st round draft pick and wont command as much $$. This has happened before with a Boras client---Minny didnt want the Boras headaches and drafted Mauer before Prior.

"I predict he'll turn down the Nats, declare his undying love for the Yankees, and sign with them for 500,000 dollars."

God I hope your right!!!!!!!!

":rofl: at the people who say Zito deserves his money more than Strasburg deserves his.

A bonus is a bonus - the kid would still be under team control for at least 6 years. If this bonus buys out his arbitration years (as they'd do if they're smart), $20M for 6 years is a smart deal for a talent like Strasburg.

I guess these same people were whining about Longoria's deal last year, since he hadn't 'proven himself' yet. Tools is tools.

If MLB sets a hard slotting system, you can guarantee that these Strasburg/Harper level talents would find it worthwhile to play in Japan instead of the US."

Eactly, well said.

Agree with BJ's guess here. The Nationals are taking on way, way too much risk with just throwing him $25M, no questions asked. Incentives are a great idea to offer upside to Strasburg, yet protect the Nationals should something catastrophic happen.

I also agree that this "bonus" in no way will buy out his arb years. This is just money for him to sign. Once he reaches arbitration, the dude is going to want $15M per arb year if he is successful.

"Put it in this perspective (if you're a homeowner):

Would you rather pay a professional plumber a decent amount of money to fix your toilet or would you rather pay someone who has never fixed a toilet before an asinine amount of money?

It's the same principle."

That is quite possibly the worst analogy I have ever heard in my life.

Here is another issue that Strassburg might face if he does sign. Draft position next year. Here is a rundown of the current draft.
1.Washington
2.KC
3.Pittsburgh
4.Baltimore
5.San Diego
6.Cincinatti
We can exclude Wash as they probably would try again.
Baltimore has the highest payroll 18th overall from the remaining 5.
***All 5 teams have been know ot be cheap.*** <----- say what?

KC spent more money than any other team in the draft last year.

They took Timothy Melville in 2008, Chris Dwyer and Wil Meyers this year...who were ALL signability concerns..and passed over by every single one of your favorite teams.

KC may be cheap on getting FA's..because who wants to come play in KC..then they over-spend on Meche or Guillen because they have to, and get ridden by the press..but know this..

If KC doesn't lock up #1 pick next year, and Washington doesn't get permission to draft him again...then the KC Royals can say hello to their new #2 pitcher behind Zack Greinke..Stephen Strasburg...

no way he slips past us (if he doesn't sign this year).

Assuming the Nats are unable to sign Strasburg to a deal this eyar, there is nothing set in stone to say Strasburg signs with whomever drafts him next year.

For example, if Strasburg doesn't sign today, pitches very well in some independent league and doesn't get injured, who knows how much of a bonus Boras and him will demand next year.

$30-40M? Not out of the realm of possibility.

YANKSFAN

Other than the amount you suggest he sign for ($22 million), you wrote what I have been thinking about all afternoon.

$10 million is the record. Any amount up to $12 million is more than reasonable for the kid. Let him PRODUCE in the majors, reach arbitration and begin raking in WHAT HE EARNED.

I just can't imagine myself @ age 20 saying to myself (or parents, friends, girl) "Naa, I'm going to pass on this $12 mil and play in a Independent League or try and got to Japan and become a citizen for a year. Then I'll try for the big bucks next year". I mean there are so many things that go wrong. It's almost like having the winning lottery ticket and not cashing it in because you think there's a bigger pot out there in your near future.