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« Odds & Ends: Chapman, Indians, Mulder, Royals | Main | Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Gonzalez, Thome, Hinske, Red Sox, D'Backs, Twins »
Trades Of The Decade: Bedard To The Mariners
After months of speculation and one false alarm, the Mariners acquired Erik Bedard from the Orioles in February of 2008. The cost? Tony Butler, Kameron Mickolio, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman and Adam Jones.
Then-GM Bill Bavasi told reporters that the Mariners were getting "one hell of a player," and he wasn't the only executive who thought so. Before the trade became official, a rival GM told Sports Illustrated that Bedard had become "an annual Cy Young candidate."
The numbers backed it up. Bedard was coming off two straight dominant and mostly healthy seasons. He had an astronomical K-rate (10.9K/9), walked relatively few hitters (2.8BB/9) and was extremely tough to hit in 2007.
Cy Young candidate or not, Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said trading Bedard away was best for the franchise's long-term success.
"There aren't too many five-for-one trades anymore," MacPhail said. "We are delighted to have all five in the system."
Two of the five have yet to contribute at the major league level, but the O's still obtained a remarkable haul. Mickolio, a 6'9'' 25-year-old, has limited major league experience, though he has succeeded as a reliever in the upper minors. Butler, 22 next month, has yet to pitch above Single A.
This summer, the O's sent Sherrill to the Dodgers for powerful infield prospect Josh Bell and righty Steve Johnson. Sherrill was Baltimore's closer for a year and a half before the trade; he saved 51 games for the O's, striking out more than a batter per inning.
Tillman, who turned 21 this year, struggled in 12 major league starts this summer, but has excelled in the minors since the trade and he remains one of the game's top prospects. (A few months ago, Baseball America ranked him as the 8th-best prospect in baseball.)
Jones was coming off a productive year at Triple A at the time of the trade. He had just hit .314/.382/.586 with 25 homers in Tacoma. Those numbers translated into major league production this year, after Jones struggled at the plate in his first season with the O's. He made the All-Star team this July and hit .277/.335/.457 for the campaign, all while playing a solid center field, according to UZR.
The Mariners didn't get nearly as much value in return, though Bedard is as tough to hit as ever. Overall, Bedard allowed 135 hits and 71 walks in 164 innings as a Mariner, striking out 162 for a 3.24 ERA.
That wouldn't be a bad season, but the Mariners hoped for two years out of Bedard, not one. Back, hip, shoulder and hamstring injuries limited him to 30 starts. The M's expected to contend when they added Bedard and Carlos Silva to a rotation that already included Felix Hernandez and Jarrod Washburn, but the 2008 team lost 101 games and, despite a turnaround last season, they didn't come close to making the playoffs.
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As an M's fan I'm looking forward to the day when the Bedard trade is no longer discussed. Revisiting it again and again, is a bit too painful.
Then again, how could a trade this lopsided not get revisited again and again?
Jack Z shall deliver us!
Posted by: ExposCortege | October 23, 2009 at 11:50 AM
yeah, enough already. This trade has been beaten to death. Go and be with Heathcliff Slocumb somewhere...
Posted by: Oly | October 23, 2009 at 11:55 AM
I think this trade deserves to be revisited. Another great example of taking a player who hadn't reached his "potential" and overvaluing him based of K/9 and his "stuff".
In 4 years he had never reached 200 innings (although one year was close). He had rumored attitude and toughness issues. Yet, the M's chose to look beyond those red flags and pay through the nose for the guy.
Even if Bedard had pitched as well as the team had hoped this trade would have been a disaster. The M's would still have missed the playoffs and all that talent would still be sitting over in Baltimore.
Posted by: bjsguess | October 23, 2009 at 12:07 PM
Hey, if Cub fans have to hear over and over again about the Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio and Bobby Shantz trade that happened a few years before I was born, I think the Mariner fans can suffer through a few years of this one being revisited.
Posted by: Jammin502 | October 23, 2009 at 12:13 PM
and if we have to revisist the Haren trade.....just sayin!
Posted by: inthecards | October 23, 2009 at 12:31 PM
I don't think you can name a single team which has never made a trade which hasn't transpired to be horribly, horribly lopsided.
Posted by: Aranathor | October 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM
O's fans revist this trade frequently. Due to the fact that we also revisit trading away Schilling and others, frequently. Maybe Mariners fans should consider the value it added to the team by helping to get Bavasi out of there?
Posted by: fndplanner | October 23, 2009 at 12:52 PM
This trade along with the Tejada trade really got things going for the Orioles turnaround and really started to make fans, at least this one, see what Andy MacPhail was capable of coming into a new club. We lost a good starting pitcher in Bedard, but filled a lot of gaps with Jones, Sherill, and Tillman, and will continue to fill the gaps with Mickolio and possibly Butler.
Couple that with the Tejada trade that has filled gaps with Scott, Albers, and Sarfate at the MLB level, and in the future with Patton and Costanzo. MacPhail has really done a great job turning this team around.
Posted by: PS314 | October 23, 2009 at 12:55 PM
As a Dodgers fan, the DeShields/Pedro trade is still revisited 16 years after the fact. As I'm sure most of you know, Pedro COULD have been winning Cy Young awards if not for Jody Reed turning down $7.8 million of the Dodgers' money only to wind up with a minor league deal courtesy of the Brewers.
Posted by: vtadave | October 23, 2009 at 01:15 PM
As a Dodgers fan, the DeShields/Pedro trade is still revisited 16 years after the fact. As I'm sure most of you know, Pedro COULD have been winning Cy Young awards if not for Jody Reed turning down $7.8 million of the Dodgers' money only to wind up with a minor league deal courtesy of the Brewers.
Posted by: vtadave | October 23, 2009 at 01:15 PM
Revisiting bad trades never gets old. For example, after Joe Nathan went to Minnesota, the Giants have employed Tim Worrell, Matt Herges, Aramndo Benitez, Brad Hennessey, Tyler Walker, and Brian Wilson as closer. A couple of those years it was probably the difference between post-season appearances. Hey, they still talk about Ken Phelps for Jay Buhner. You win some big and lose some big!
Posted by: M | October 23, 2009 at 01:19 PM
The problem I have with this deal (I'm an O's fan by the way) is not necessarily that the Mariners gave up too much for Bedard. The problem is, the Mariners were far enough from contending in 2008 that signing any pitcher, even one as good as Bedard, wasn't going to be enough to make a playoff push unless you were extremely lucky.
If the Mariners had won, say, 90 games in 2007 and decided they wanted 5 extra wins, it's not a terrible gamble to give away all of this talent for Bedard. After all, you could argue that Tillman had control problems, Mickolio / Butler weren't top prospects, Sherrill was only a reliever, and the Mariners had a stacked outfield at the time (Ibanez + Ichiro, and Balentien was a top prospect back then), so maybe giving up Jones was an OK price to pay.
There are some trades that are objectively bad in any situation - for instance, the Adam Eaton / Chris Young / etc. deal, where it could easily be argued that Young was already a better pitcher than Eaton, even ignoring the age and contract differences. Here - if Bedard wins 20 games and leads you to the World Series, this deal wouldn't be seen as a failure. The problem is, Bill Bavasi was deluded in thinking his team was anywhere near the playoffs, so in that sense the deal was a complete failure.
Posted by: ugen64 | October 23, 2009 at 01:57 PM
I'm still fuming over the Stan Bahnsen for Rich McKinney trade.
Posted by: Bob R. | October 23, 2009 at 02:27 PM
The Baltimore Orioles received quite a haul even if Adam Jones is overrated. The play of Jones in centerfield was hardly "solid," according to the UZR rankings at that position:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2009&month=0
Jones was torrid at the plate for two months this season but hit only .234 the remainder of the season:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=jonesad01&year=2009&t=b
The prognosis for Jones is not particularly bright in light of his woeful plate discipline:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=5&season=2009&month=0
Regardless of Jones' worth, the Orioles received an impressive return in the Erik Bedard trade.
Posted by: thrill55 | October 23, 2009 at 02:27 PM
I really wish the Mariners got the Bedard who was pitching like an ace in Baltimore. A lot of trades fail because of unforseen injuries, but this one wasn't that tough to spot. I didn't think Bedard had the problem of only lasting 5-6 innings in Baltimore, but he still didn't prove his durability enough for a team to trade the farm for him.
At least their new GM is VERY good and seems to be making this deal sting less with the play of Franklin Guiterrez and the fact they looked more than respectable this year. It was a blessing when Kenji opted out, and Z will have a dirt cheap roster to work with once Silva is finally gone.
Posted by: bigpat | October 23, 2009 at 02:32 PM
At the time, this trade wasn't as lopsided as it seems now. Bedard was, and is, a hell of a pitcher. I'm not sure it was ever the right move for the M's, but it really wasn't as awful as it looks in retrospect, with a Bedard injury and Sherrill/Jones/Tillman being a past/present/future All-Star lineup.
Posted by: The Globalizer | October 23, 2009 at 03:02 PM
Dave Cameron-Fangraphs July 16 09':While Jones is just a good player right now, he’s still scratching the surface of what he can be. Still just 23 years of age, he has the kind of athletic ability and swing to add significant power as he fills out, giving him a chance to be the rare middle of the order center fielder. Plus, he won’t even be arbitration eligible until after the 2010 season. All-Stars who make the league minimum before they turn 24 are remarkably valuable.
Get off of Jones thrill55, he's only 24... Obviously he is indeed overrated with all of the hype surrounding him but he's still learning at the major league level, I think we can expect to see plate discipline/defensive improvement in the next year or two.
Posted by: superpiff | October 23, 2009 at 03:28 PM
The Baltimore Orioles received quite a haul even if Adam Jones is overrated. The play of Jones in centerfield was hardly "solid," according to the UZR rankings at that position:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2009&month=0
Jones was torrid at the plate for two months this season but hit only .234 the remainder of the season:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=jonesad01&year=2009&t=b
The prognosis for Jones is not particularly bright in light of his woeful plate discipline:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=5&season=2009&month=0
Regardless of Jones' worth, the Orioles received an impressive return in the Erik Bedard trade.
Posted by: thrill55 | October 23, 2009 at 02:27 PM
looking at one year, i guess that he is overhyped for one year. But if look at how he fares on a year to year basis, it looks a little different.
2008 61 129 191 9 57 23 0 108 10 3 .270 .311 .400 .711 1.06
2009 83 131 216 19 70 36 3 93 10 4 .277 .335 .457 .792 2.00
putting on an extra 22 runs, 25 total bases, 10 more homers, and an improvement in BA, OBP, OPS, and SLUG in the same amount of ABs as last year. He was also IBB 3 times this year, nothing spectacular, but showing that teams are starting to respect his bat, seeing how Markakis was hitting behind him most of the year. Definitely on his way up.
Posted by: PS314 | October 23, 2009 at 04:58 PM
also strikeouts went down(108 to 93), and walks went up(23 to 36), so I will take a team of Adam Jones any day of the week.
Posted by: PS314 | October 23, 2009 at 05:01 PM
Agree re: Jones, and it's also worth noting that his production hit a wall when he started to have some small nagging injuries. I'm not sure the "torrid" two months are the best sample, but neither is the .237 for the rest of the year.
Posted by: The Globalizer | October 23, 2009 at 05:28 PM
Blue Jays to CWS:
David Wells for Mike Sirotka
Posted by: TrueBlue | October 23, 2009 at 09:29 PM
"Get off of Jones thrill55, he's only 24... Obviously he is indeed overrated with all of the hype surrounding him but he's still learning at the major league level, I think we can expect to see plate discipline/defensive improvement in the next year or two."
I hope you're right.
Posted by: thrill55 | October 23, 2009 at 10:11 PM
What would be even more abuse, is the Orioles signing a now healthy Bedard on the cheap and he goes back to Cy Young quality. A real possibility.
Posted by: Craigmad2 | October 23, 2009 at 10:30 PM
"What would be even more abuse, is the Orioles signing a now healthy Bedard on the cheap and he goes back to Cy Young quality. A real possibility."
I can't imagine that Erik Bedard would have much interest in returning to the Orioles, who never posted a winning record in Bedard's nine seasons in the Baltimore organization.
Bedard, who turns 31 in March, may be looking for a winner after contributing to his first winning MLB season with the 2009 Seattle Mariners.
I wonder whether Bedard harbors any ill will against the Orioles, who stopped his arbitration clock one day shy of an additional year, costing the lefthander millions of dollars.
Posted by: thrill55 | October 24, 2009 at 01:56 PM
I can't imagine that Erik Bedard would have much interest in returning to the Orioles, who never posted a winning record in Bedard's nine seasons in the Baltimore organization.
Bedard, who turns 31 in March, may be looking for a winner after contributing to his first winning MLB season with the 2009 Seattle Mariners.
I wonder whether Bedard harbors any ill will against the Orioles, who stopped his arbitration clock one day shy of an additional year, costing the lefthander millions of dollars.
Posted by: thrill55 | October 24, 2009 at 01:56 PM
9 years??? He spent 6 with the team, only started more than 2 games in 4 of them...
Posted by: PS314 | October 26, 2009 at 11:28 AM