Epstein: Red Sox Bought Low On Hermida

Welcome to the hot stove, gentelmen.
Be prepared for some insanity.

The Red Sox did exactly that. And Hermida is going to thrive in Boston.

He's got a career .815 OPS on the road.

With Florida's Park factors (Boston in parentheses)

2009:
Batting- 97 (105)
Pitching- 97 (103)
Jeremy Hermida- .259/.348/.392/.740

2008:
Batting- 97 (105)
Pitching- 97 (103)
Jeremy Hermida- .249/.323/.406/.729

2007:
Batting- 100 (111)
Pitching- 101 (109)
Jeremy Hermida- .296/.369/.501/.870

2006:
Batting-94 (102)
Pitching- 94 (102)
Jeremy Hermida- .251/.332/.368/.700

Home/Road Splits:
2009:
Home- .267/.349/.364/.713
Road- .250/.347/.422/.769

2008:
Home- .203/.273/.312/.585
Road- .288/.364/.487/.851

2007:
Home- .267/.333/.452/.785
Road- .324/.401/.548/.949

2006:
Home- .259/.335/.380/.715
Road- .242/.329/.356/.685

And he's going from a stadium with dimensions of LF- 330 feet
CF- 404 feet
RF- 345 feet

to

LF- 310 feet
CF- 389 feet
RF- 302 feet

I hope you aren't talking to me Timmy B, because I clearly said if we don't land Holliday or resign Bay, there's a chance he could start.

Sorry 'bout that.

With the 3B trade market slowly becoming a seller's one, with the ChiSox potentially in there, Theo may be able to get some value by trading Mike Lowell, making it easier to trade for Adrian Gonzalez... thennn, making it easier to hand LF to Hermida if need be.

If we do sell Mike though, we would definitely have to eat up some salary.

Why would we be ashamed if we signed Bay?

Whoa, there is a west coast bias too?!?

We could kill righties, but would be killed vs. lefties. I like Mike Lowell though, he's a ballplayer, and a very consistent one at that.

Good trade for the Marlins right now. But could potentially be a huge steal for the Red Sox! I think Hermida could thrive in a hitters ballpark Fenway.

Also, can someone fill me in a bit on Jose Alvarez and Hunter Jones? Are they any good?

Agreed, but a team like the Pirates could use him as a gap to Alvarez, 'cause Andy LaRoche is just plain awful.

well yes he could be a fit there, but only for a portion of the salary

im just saying the struggling teams arent as likely to need lowell for his full salary. if the red sox took most of his contract he could definatly fit with the orioles or pirates. but doesnt he have an no trade clause? or is that ortiz?

"Why would we be ashamed if we signed Bay?"

I'm sorry I should have elaborated on the Bay comment. I just think that Bay will be drastically overvalued this offseason. He's an aging slugger, who's bat speed and contact ability is deteriorating quickly. He struck out almost a third of the time this year, and as he ages I don't expect that to improve. Also, he's of the Manny/Ibanez/Soriano ilk of defensive outfielders, and although the Monster can help mask that a little, it still hurts them to have that bad of an OF out there everyday. Just ask the Philly pitchers what that's like. Right-handed sluggers are often type of players to age quickly and completely fall off the map. Richie Sexson is about the best comparison to Bay that I can come up with, and while he produced for the M's for a season, he completely fell off and ended up being released. I could see him having 1 or 2 more big offensive seasons, but after that it's anyone's guess. For $70M+ over four years, the Sox could do a hell of a lot better. "Better" could include going after Holliday or making a run at Adrian Gonzalez.

Jose Alvarez is just 20.
Far from a "AAAA" player.

Maybe the Sawx would deal Ortiz?

CF Ellsbury L
2B Pedroia R
C Martinez S
1B Youkilis R
LF J Bay R
DH J. Hermida L
3B Lowell R
RF JD Drew L
SS Lowrie S

That looks like a solid lineup.

Ortiz would have to accept the deal since he is a 10-5 guy = no trade claus

If he "bought low" and got a player with "unfulfilled potential" I definitely think he starts if Bay is not resigned, or if we don't land Holliday. This seems more like a reclamation project, like Ortiz, than just being a fourth outfielder.

David Ortiz wasn't brought in to be the starter in 2003, Giambi was. David Ortiz took the job over in June of 2003. Theo said this deal wasn't a blockbuster and basically downplayed its significance. He won't be penciled in to be anything other than a corner outfield backup, and I still see them bringing in another backup outfielder. I'd like to see them bring Coco back, I don't think he is gonna find a starting job anywhere and Francona clearly loved the guy.

He doesn't have to be a star.
He's just 20, after all.

Correct me if I'm wrong...but doesn't lowell have a full no-trade clause

Yeah he doesn't and he's not 10-5 either.

sure the sox would like to trade ortiz, but who would be stupid enough to take him?

The phillies could be another suiter for lowell if they decline the option on feliz

And all of you guys posting up Hermida's numbers have obviously never watched him play... this is one of those times where the numbers don't match the player. He will allow more runs in the outfield than he will produce at the plate, especially if he's playing off the Green Monster.

"According to COT's, he has "full no trade protection" ..."

How would he have a no trade clause? The Red Sox don't give no trade clauses to anyone, only Matsuzaka has ever gotten one and he's not a 10 - 5 player. Cot's is inaccurate if it claims he does.

a reclamation project doesn't necessarily have to get regular time, but you get an inkling that it is what it'd come down to. And it would be a lot easier for hermida to reach his potential if he was getting regular playing time as well.

actually blackcourt your inaccurate
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/10/discussion-mike-lowell.html

If they're expecting a 25-year-old player to suddenly develop into a productive player while only getting sporadic playing time, they're asking an awful lot. Hermida will almost certainly need to at least platoon to develop his potential.

Glad to see no one on this thread is suggesting Hermida might be a trade piece to get Adrian Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez.

-JM

"Glad to see no one on this thread is suggesting Hermida might be a trade piece to get Adrian Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez."

Actually I was thinking he'd be a piece for Johan Santana, goodness knows the Mets could use an upgrade over Francoeur. Sarcasm, please do not respond to this like I was serious.

The more I think about it, well Theo has a thing about players he covets, he never lets go. Hermida is one of them. Yes, it's a good buy low, but I think realistically Hermida will be a good 4th outfielder next year.

"Yeah, no one ever really complained about Fenway"

The difference is despite Fenway being a hitters haven, it's not a home run park. The Monster actually cuts down on home runs, despite some whiny pitchers complaints. It's much more of a doubles park (thanks again to the Monster). Sure that fly ball that's an out several other place is a double... but that home run in several other parks is now only a double.

"The more I think about it, well Theo has a thing about players he covets, he never lets go. Hermida is one of them. Yes, it's a good buy low, but I think realistically Hermida will be a good 4th outfielder next year."

A drastic overstatement. People seem to make that connection if Epstein and some player ae mentioned in 2 seperate rumors.

Epstein was reportedly "infatuated" with Andy LaRoche, too, right? He offered Moss for him, and LaRoche was part of the Manny Bay trade. (and he even once traded for LaRoche's brother). With Iwamura in Pitt, LaRoche could be expendable, but here we have Hermida instead.

And Hermida was reportedly only a target last time to help pry Bay out of Pittsburgh.

Hermida is this year's Brad Penny. =P

"If they're expecting a 25-year-old player to suddenly develop into a productive player while only getting sporadic playing time, they're asking an awful lot. Hermida will almost certainly need to at least platoon to develop his potential."

that's because he won't be the 4th outfielder.. Perhaps Bay doesn't want to stay in Boston? maybe J.D. Drew is going to be traded? either case if i was a boston fan i'd be pretty pissed off until Bay is signed and Drew or Ells isn't traded for god knows what.

Great sign for Boston as they needed a 4th OF..They gave up practically nothing in Jones,who was very hittable, and Alvarez,who at 20 doesnt look too bad but is a few years from the bigs IF he pans out..#44& #45 in the system..not bad for the 1st of what I believe will be many deals struck by the sox FO..remember ,Ortiz was a minor signing too..maybe the sox see something they can fix..kinda like what the Halos did with Kaz..they saw something that Hickey didnt and he started throwing like the old Kaz again..ya just never know, but This is such LOW risk for the sox..cant hurt either way..

There is nothing to not like about this fine pickup of a quality guy. I have watched hundreds of Hermida's games with the Fish, he is a decent enough corner OF with good hitting ability and should be at least a top 4th OF over the next couple of seasons with Boston. Paired with Casey Kotchman, giving them 2 of the better backups in the OF and IF in the game.

Hermida was acquired for a reliver that was going to acquire the label of AAAA anyway and another pitcher who was more of less nothing, so the cost was nothing and now the Sox will not have to try and find that OF backup for next year, one less chore for Epstein over the Winter with the health issues that Baldelli currently was going through.

One of the outstanding moves that Epstein makes and nobody saw coming once again

"i was thinking of mike lowell for kenji johjima"

I'm thinking Lowell will be against a move to Japan. Johjima recently opted out of his deal and signed with a Japanese team.

Posted by: start_wearing_purple | November 06, 2009 at 04:19 AM

Purple, right under that sentence he said "so much for that" probably saying that because Johjima went to Japan, there's zero chance this happens.

"Jose Alvarez is just 20.
Far from a "AAAA" player."

And Jesus Montero is far from a superstar. It's called projection.

Huntz** sorry, its early here..

"actually johns, I dont see Kotchman in the picture next year..That would be too many LH bats off the bench..need another RH bat still.."

You are right on with a awful tilt to the Left side on the bench, but who are tou going to PH for anyway? Why does it even matter if they are both left handed? Play only 1 at a time and keep them both if nobody wants to give up what Epstein wants back for Kotchman.

As it currently stands, only SS stands as a weakness offensively if Gonzalez comes back, or maybe if Lowrie's wrist is balky and if Lowrie hits like he did in 2008, you don't even need a PH for him, so who cares which side either Kotchman and Hermedia hit from? just rotate games they rest a starter in, I always wondered why people got weird about benches being heavy from one side or the other, when you just rest players on alternate days.

Hermidia may just surprise.

omg everybody calm down. obviously bay is the #1 priority for LF. nobody can sign FA's till the 20th.

Posted by: Timmy B | November 05, 2009 at 08:11 PM

Bobby Abreu and the Angels disagree

"Bobby Abreu and the Angels disagree"

Bobby Abreu never filed for free agency.

The Fish wanted Hermida to succeed but after 4 years of nothing decided it was time to cut bait with their former 1st round draft choice .
Hermida has always shown a lack of motivation so now he becomes the Sawx reclamation project.Good Luck !

"Anyway, this trade is a sad anecdote of the economics of baseball. The Fish started this guy in the OF for years, can't afford a small arbitration raise, and move him to one of the most stocked teams in the league (who will use him as a 4th outfielder).

Damn baseball.

Posted by: breakz | November 06, 2009 at 07:49 AM "

Jeez. You're just bitter, aren't you? It isn't BASEBALL's fault that the Marlins owner won't shell out the extra cash to keep Hermida. It isn't baseball's fault that the Red Sox made the best offer.

kevin millar, mike lowell & now hermida. boston continues to get scrappy white florida marlins to come to town and revive their careers hitting against that big green wall. they're sort of like how the st. louis cardinals are with bluejays and mariners pitchers.

"Anyway, this trade is a sad anecdote of the economics of baseball. The Fish started this guy in the OF for years, can't afford a small arbitration raise, and move him to one of the most stocked teams in the league (who will use him as a 4th outfielder).

Damn baseball.

Posted by: breakz | November 06, 2009 at 07:49 AM"

First, by your logic, Hanley Ramirez will be traded this offseason, because the Marlins will not be able to afford his $1.5M salary bump. If that's true, Red Sox fans will be happy to create a package centering on Stolmy Pimentel in order to accommodate the salary dump.

Second, revenue sharing says hi. The Marlins receive enough in revenue sharing (or very close to enough) to cover their entire player payroll. Instead, because there are no conditions attached to how the money must be used, the owner pockets it and sets the payroll based on operating revenues/costs. Silly times.

From his scouting report, sounds like Jose Alvarez could be a steal. He has good stuff (Low 90's Fastball, 12-6 Curveball that can make people miss, and a deceptive change), good control, and nice numbers at A ball. He's only 20. He started playing ball when he was 17. He's just too skinny, he's 5'11 150 Ibs. Maybe if he gains some weight, like 25 Ibs of muscle, he could maybe gain some velocity on his fastball. He's probably gonna start the season at AA so I'm really interested to see how he does there.

MLB needs to establish a league cap on the percentage amount players can receive for both good and bad performances from year to year. Something like 25% maximum increase and 20% maximum decrease, performance bonuses excluded. MLB also needs to raise the league minimum salary to something in the order of $1,000,000 annually. Too many teams have the majority of their players receiving $400K - $499K so that they can afford to have 2 or 3 "name stars", receiving high six digit or seven digit salaries, to draw fans to the ballpark. Baseball is a team sport. This PR approach will kill MLB long term, especially if they ever lose the antitrust exemption granted to the leagues by Congress.
MLB is run in a very elitist way much like corporations not covered by antitrust exemptions...baseball has become profit driven at the expense of providing quality sports entertainment for the nation. Perhaps lifting the antitrust exemption so that the doors are open to a new professional league for baseball is the way to go. Nothing like competition to level the playing field for everyone involved.

Now don't get all in a tizzy, people. Hermida is just there as Baldelli's replacement. If he does fulfill his potential, then they can think about him as Drew's replacement the following season. But no way is he handed the starting left field job in 2010.

Comical how many people write off young players because they struggle at the major league level when they are in their early 20's.

To me,these are the same people who wrote off guys like Kendry Morales a year ago.

The amount of players who have turned the corner after a few disappointing years is never ending and while there is no gurantee Hermida turns out....it was well worth the shot.

Also worth note...what would a rebuilding team give up for a package of Hermida/Kotchman....two viable major league ready players in their mid-20's with solid potential?

Most GM's of such rebuilding teams could probably justify taking on a package of Kotchman/Hermida/Bowden fairly easily if all they had to do was give up an expensive top tier player they can't afford anymore.