No Discount For Adrian Gonzalez

9:04pm: Hayes has an updated story now, and it includes some interesting details. He reports that a Padres source said no teams approached San Diego about a deal for Gonzalez this winter. At last summer's non-waiver trade deadline, the Mariners were close to acquiring Gonzalez in a 6-for-1 trade, but the deal fell through when then-Padres GM Kevin Towers held out for one more player.

2:50pm: Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez isn't interested in a hometown discount, based on this report from Dan Hayes of the North County Times.  In reference to his current contract, Gonzalez said, "At the time you take the security…the next one is where I look for what I deserve."  I imagine he's expecting to top $100MM once he reaches free agency after the 2011 season.  Gonzalez says there have been no extension talks with the Padres.

Gonzalez is sure to continue appearing in trade rumors this summer, but he cautions that "99.9 percent of everything is false."


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133 Comments on "No Discount For Adrian Gonzalez"


Guest
5 years 6 months ago

He’ll get his money elsewhere I think, The Padres gave Peavy a long term deal, only to feel uncomfortable with the contract amd eventually trade him.

I think Adrian Gonzalez will be traded mid-summer no doubt about it. To where you ask?

I could see the Orioles, Braves, Red Sox, Rangers, Rays, Dodgers, Mariners (especially), and White Sox interested.

Infield Fly
5 years 6 months ago

I think Adrian Gonzalez will be traded mid-summer no doubt about it. To where you ask?

Well, actually I didn’t ask – but those are some damn good possibilities anyway!
😉

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

Eventually you were going to ask I think. But it was just one of those things where you answer the question before it’s asked. Like if I was to say to you, “good”…Even though you hadn’t said “how are you” yet.

Infield Fly
5 years 6 months ago

Oh, I know…just yankin’ your chain…again…kind of like a pesty [Infield] Fly…

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

Yep likewise. Your chain needed some Yankin. The Yankees know how to Yank chains. (Thank you)

bobbycocks
5 years 6 months ago

No way the Braves trade for him. It smells too much like Teixiera Part II. If AGon is not open to discounts, there is no way the Braves will ever be able to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox.

peterherman
5 years 6 months ago

As much as I’m sure it would pain them to see Adrian Gonzalez on the Red Sox, the Yankees have no position for him to play. They don’t figure to be in on him in either trade or free agency, from most early reports. They could always surprise folks, but with Teix locked up for many years and with ARod and Jeter rolling right along to an age at which they’ll need some DH days (not to mention Posada), where are they going to put a massive slugging 1B?

the_show
5 years 6 months ago

Why the Rays? Where would they get the money to resign him.

alphabet_soup5
5 years 6 months ago

Are you not a James Loney fan? He’s weak for a first basemen, but he still gets 90 RBI’s and hits close to .300. Not elite at all, but worth the starting job. I don’t think the Dodgers are interested in Adrian Gonzalez or Lance Berkman.

BaseballFan0707
5 years 6 months ago

The Loney hate is just so weird. I understand that he isn’t the most amazing 1st baseman, but he is definitely above-average as a hitter, and he’s starting to play decent defense. While A-Gon would be an upgrade for sure, is it really worth gutting out the entire farm system for? He’s signed EXTREMELY cheaply for 2 more years (i’m shocked the option hasn’t been picked up yet), and would probably cost at least 3 premium players along with 2 more guys with good upside. The Mariners couldn’t pull off a 6-for-1, and it isn’t like his value has dropped.

Considering how the Dodgers are going to need the pitching coming up through the system in a few short years, along with all their young guys they intend to keep, it would just be foolish to trade the future off for a player that offers only a decent upgrade over what they have.

janiejones
5 years 6 months ago

He can be an above average hitter, but I think you need more from a first baseman. If he played a good outfield or second base he’d be great, but he doesn’t. He plays first base, where you expect to sit your big power hitter, which he is not. I think that’s where the hate comes from. And I think the dodgers have been thinking the same for about two years now…

BoSoxSam
5 years 6 months ago

Sounds like good news for Boston!

leviticus6688
5 years 6 months ago

Good thing they signed Beltre then, right?

wolf9309
5 years 6 months ago

that’s just a one-year deal, not exactly a long term commitment. Probably most likely scenario for if Boston got him, unless Beltre is doing horribly, would be that Ortiz is out and Youk and Gonzalez take turns DHing. More likely Boston would be interested after 2010 though.

I probably see the Orioles and White Sox as strongest contenders apart from Boston. Mariners too, especially if they can’t extend Lee.

BaseballFan0707
5 years 6 months ago

Nah, Youk is too valuable defensively, especially if A-Gon joins the team, as Youk is also a passable 3rd baseman. V-Mart is easily the DH, though, if Boston can manage to get another catcher.

wolf9309
5 years 6 months ago

Youk is very valuable defensively, as is Gonzalez, but Beltre is more valuable defensively at 3rd than Youk- if Beltre is going well, Ortiz is probably more replaceable for the year (remember just for the end of 2010) and then 2011, Youk would move to third and Agon would take 1st.

I do think that the Sox aren’t the most likely though if Agon is going to be traded at the deadline, like I said, much more likely if he’s traded in the offseason.

BoSoxSam
5 years 6 months ago

Heh, yeah. The AGon deal is the one reason I’m wary of the Beltre signing…But I’m sure they’ll go all out for him anyway if he’s available. Beltre could be traded again, if he’s having a good year. I could even see Youk going if Beltre REALLY bounces back, simply because I know Epstein is willing to trade even the most popular players if it makes sense for the team. That would have to be one heck of a deal though…either that or beltre would have to have one heck of a year, as in back to his 50 homer year kind of thing, plus they would have to have an extension ready.

5 years 6 months ago

I don’t see a situation where the Sox move Youk. He’s locked up pretty cheap and if he continues to produce 30 homers and 100 rbi’s, what’s the point in moving him? Him and Pedroia are the face of the franchise. I’d love for the Sox to get AGon, but I’d rather see the Sox keep their prospects this time around…unless their offense is struggling at the trade deadline. This team needs to get younger, and although AGon is 27, you would be giving up a bunch of young prospects to get him.
But you’re right, Epstein isn’t afraid of trading anyone.

BoSoxSam
5 years 6 months ago

Hah, yeah I do agree it is definitely unlikely that Youk goes anywhere. I was just trying to think of a place in my mind for AGon to play, and who would have to move, and he was the next possibility after Beltre. I would HATE to see the Sox get him and then just plop him in DH; one, it blocks VMart from moving there in a year or two, and two, his defense is top-notch and shouldn’t be taken away from him. As you said about young players though, as you said he is 27. If he came and Youk left, we’d be moving at least 4 years younger (I don’t remember Youk’s age, but I was guessing about 31?). They are both moving into their prime, and AGon’s will last four years longer than Youks. It would suck to lose Youk though, which is why I said that will never happen unless Beltre proves invaluable to the Sox. Youkilis will decline quicker at third defensively than at first, and he’s reaching the age where it’s much more difficult to change positions. Plus, Beltre is that awesome possibility player; he has the possibility to hit 45 home runs in 2010, IF Fenway really does make a big difference and IF injuries really hindered him that much last year and IF he plays like he did in his 50+ homer year (04 right?). All of those things could hit at the right time, and suddenly the Red Sox might look at Youk and see that Beltre is actually giving them more production and better third-base defense, and prefer to move him to get AGon. And again this would also hinge TREMENDOUSLY on whether the Sox were able to get a Beltre extension or not. Lastly, Youk could be really helpful for the Sox if they wanted to attempt a three-team trade, as he’s another first baseman in his prime that could be very appealing to a lot of teams, and would therefore mean the Sox would probably sacrifice fewer prospects. Maybe if they got the Mariners involved, Sox get AGon, Mariners get Youk, Mariners send prospects to Padres, the Sox sweeten the deal for Padres/Mariners to finish it off. I keep hearing that the M’s have the young players to pull it off, they might be interested in Youk if they can lose fewer players (because the Sox would be sending prospects as well) than if they got AGon.

Again, lots and lots of wacky guessing. The one reason I see that moving Youk may be good is because of the required third base switch; Beltre is just so damn good there, that you’d think if he can match Youkilis’s production at the plate that Epstein will HAVE to consider it.

Dmarkos
5 years 6 months ago

Just some reassurance for your post, Youk turns 31 March 15th.

BoSoxSam
5 years 6 months ago

thanks :)

boy9988
5 years 6 months ago

Yeah….just one problem. We here in Seattle don’t want Youk. Sorry.

jpfinest
5 years 6 months ago

are u kiddin. the red sox are not trading youk period. if anything ortis or beltre will be gone to make room. beltre can be good but no way they choose him over youk and beltre signing is like a 1 year deal. he will most likely not pick up da option.

alphabet_soup5
5 years 6 months ago

Why not trade Youkilis? He can’t even drive in 100 and look who gets on before him!

ELPinchy
5 years 6 months ago

Are you seriously using RBI as a metric of his value? REALLY?!!

They will dump ORTIZ first,they are parting ways at the end of the season. I highly doubt Ortiz makes it the AllStar break.

alphabet_soup5
5 years 6 months ago

RBI’s are dependent on the lineup around you. Ryan Howard wouldn’t have gotten 141 RBI’s on say the Athletics or something. However if you put Adam Dunn in that cleanup spot for the Phillies, he would get many RBI’s.

Youkilis is decent.

ELPinchy
5 years 6 months ago

NO WAY!!!

try looking at some stats that have come into use in the last 30 years. RBI just don’t cut it.

schmenkman
5 years 6 months ago

Would he get “many”? Yes. Would he get as many as Howard? Doubtful.

We can look at what % of the runners on base when someone comes to bat are driven in.

% of runners driven in since 2007 (of 188 players with 750+ PAs):
1. Ryan Howard 19.1%
2. Victor Martinez 19.0%
3. Aramis Ramirez 18.9%
4. Matt Holliday 18.8%
5. Joe Mauer 18.4%

91. Adam Dunn 15.0%

atlantaspike
5 years 6 months ago

What the hell does that even tell you? How many of those opps were with no out and a runner at 3rd or 2 outs and a runner at second? Useless without context.

schmenkman
5 years 6 months ago

It seems straightforward enough, but if you think some players may face significantly more “low leverage” situations, the breakdowns are at Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference.

atlantaspike
5 years 6 months ago

So assuming 200 “RBI opportunities” per season (which is probably way overstating a 600AB season) the difference between #1 and number #91 is a whopping 8 RBI per year. Whooop-dee-do. You really think that the difference is some magickal skillz on the part of Howard, or perhaps, just perhaps, a random variation that is just noise or different types of RBI opps as I mentioned above?

schmenkman
5 years 6 months ago

In 2009, Dunn had 471 opps (runners on base) when he came up. Howard had 500. Dunn drove in 67 of those (14.2%). Howard drove in 96 of his (19.2%). So let’s say Dunn would have had 71 given 500 opps. 96 vs. 71 seems like more than random variation.
link to baseballprospectus.com

atlantaspike
5 years 6 months ago

Howard also had 20 (or nearly a third) more 3B RBI opps than Dunn. OK -you’ve got me thinking there may be something there, but I still don’t see it as A: an apples to apples comparison, B: taking into account the different players in front of the two guys, and C: normalized for statistical variation. I’m not even convinced it’s a reproducible skill. What does this tell you that BA with runners on base doesn’t?

markjsunz
5 years 6 months ago

Runs Batted in have been the metric for value for over 100 years. Did you reinvent the wheel with a a new formula?

ELPinchy
5 years 6 months ago

Well I’m glad that you prefer to stay in the stone-age of statistics but many others have moved on to stats that are actually useful in determining a players true offensive value.

BaseballFan0707
5 years 6 months ago

…..

Well, let’s see.

20+ HR power, 35+ 2B power, ability to hit for a .300+ average, and OBP potential of .380+, great defensive 1st baseman, average defensive 3rd baseman (though last year was his only below-average year at the position).

The con’s?

Uhh….he’ll strike out 100-120 times a year? Yeah, that’s all I got.

alphabet_soup5
5 years 6 months ago

Youkilis is a pretty good 1st basemen. I’m just upset he gets the all-star nod every year over Miguel Cabrera, who I consider a much better player. Cabrera matches pretty much all those qualifications you listed above, except he has 30+ HR power. He hasn’t played 3rd in a year and is probably below average there, however at 1st he is steadily improving.

I don’t seriously see Youkilis getting traded. The most likely situation is they would DH Gonzalez so they could still play Beltre, and they would look at the market after the season to determine if they can get a good DH and slide Youkilis to 3rd while moving Gonzalez to 1st, and declining Beltres option.

BaseballFan0707
5 years 6 months ago

Yeah, that’s a product of him having a far larger fan-base, though. MLB All-Star voting sucks as is already. The fans shouldn’t have a 100% say if players like 2009 Josh Hamilton are getting in (not the first time this has happened. In fact, it almost happens yearly).

No arguments from me on that. Miggy is far better of a player.

theWeiz
5 years 6 months ago

you would make a gold glove 1st baseman DH? if anything, youkilis will move to DH. adrian will play 1st base no matter what team he ends up with.

ELPinchy
5 years 6 months ago

Umm, you do realize that Youk also is a Gold Glove 1B.

theWeiz
5 years 6 months ago

once in 2007. adrian has won the last two years. adrian is by far more superior than youk in every aspect of baseball.

ELPinchy
5 years 6 months ago

Lol and Derek Jeter wins almost every year too.

The Gold Glove isn’t exactly the best argument to use,it would be like using selection to the all-star team as the be-all end-all for determining players value. It may be something of a good indicator but it is by no means something of absolute value or magnitude.

CosaOne
5 years 6 months ago

Or good news for any team looking for a stud 1st baseman. The Giants, Mets, White Sox, Cubs and Orioles might all be fits

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

I forgot about the Mets. Good call.

Jon Niese and Fernando Martinez?

CosaOne
5 years 6 months ago

Adrians a difference maker, I think it would take more then that. At least sub in a better pitcher also guys who have very low service time.

GasLampGuru
5 years 6 months ago

Niese and Martinez are not nearly enough for a guy who would be a legit MVP candidate in a market like New York. Niese probably doesn’t project as more than a 4th or 5th starter, and Martinez’s left-handed “power” is exactly the kind of thing that gets swallowed up in PetCo.

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

What doesn’t get swallowed up at Petco?

ReverendBlack
5 years 6 months ago

Adrian Gonzalez’s HRs.

ELPinchy
5 years 6 months ago

hardly,even he only got 12 at home.

Infield Fly
5 years 6 months ago

Love González, bat, glove & all, but unless the Mets are legitimately IN the hunt, I don’t know that I see that happening – unless there was some guarantee of extending him. After all, such a trade could very well mean giving up a significant portion of the few worthy prospects left in the Mets’ system. So it would have to be on terms that genuinely offset those losses…and made it worth turning away from a promising-looking future in the person of Ike Davis.

CosaOne
5 years 6 months ago

Fair enough, I was more talking about the teams I listed in relation to Adrian if/when he becomes a free agent. Unless Hoyer is overwhelmed with prospects I dont seem him dealing Adrian. The draft picks will potentially be worth more then a sub standard package, like the laughable garbage the Twins got for Santana.

If the Mets could sign AGon in the offseason and then either shift Davis to LF or trade him for some promising pitching then they are in better shape. Again Im more speaking if he gets to free agency.

Infield Fly
5 years 6 months ago

“If the Mets could sign AGon in the offseason and then either shift Davis to LF or trade him for some promising pitching then they are in better shape. Again Im more speaking if he gets to free agency.”

I hear ALL that and I see where you’re going with it – except…see, Mets just got this guy called J-Bay in left field and…well…I guess you can guess the rest…

CosaOne
5 years 6 months ago

Ha wow I need some coffee, sorry completely blanked on the Bay signing. Take out the position switch thing and just keep the trading for pitching part. Id suggest a move to right because Francour is awful but I’m sure they plan of Fernando Martinez playing there.

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

Actually I don’t think the Red Sox have the best chance. They have the best prospects but a tricky situation with Youk and Beltre. I think they will go after somebody like Adam Dunn mid-season or Ryan Doumit. Someone who could fill that DH role or Catcher (once again, Ryan Doumit) assuming V-Mart will DH at that point.

ilikebaseball
5 years 6 months ago

Tricky situations won’t stop the Red Sox from getting their guy. They are absolutely smitten with Gonzo. One year of Beltre isn’t going to stand in their way if they can get him.

danks50
5 years 6 months ago

” One year of Beltre isn’t going to stand in their way if they can get him.
Flag ”

It is when the Padres are probably looking to dump Gonzalez at the deadline while the Red Sox are loaded with position players & a full lineup.

ilikebaseball
5 years 6 months ago

If there is an improvement to be made and the price is one they are willing to pay, there’s no way they don’t make the move…regardless of who is on their roster. You don’t stand pat if you have an opportunity to get better. There are ways to get around the roster issue. I think Theo has shown that he isn’t afraid to make a bold move.

Infield Fly
5 years 6 months ago

Well, if the Sawx covet González bad enough they’re probably not beyond dealing Beltré (even though they just signed him) and shifting Youk to 3rd. Hell (or “heck” if I’m being censored, ha ha!), if they’re really that intent they might even include some salary relief in the deal (well, they may have to).

BoSoxSam
5 years 6 months ago

Hah, true. I think though, if AGon becomes available, which he will, the Red Sox will find it EXTREMELY difficult to let themselves settle for Dunn or Doumit. The Red Sox may not have the best chance, but they may give it the strongest push. AGon has always been at the top of their wishlist, now he’s going to likely be traded. He’s a perfect fit for their lineup, and for Fenway, even if the position jumble is difficult. If they get AGon, there are still ways for them to organize things. As I said somewhere else on this thread, Youk is a possible (although unlikely) player to move, simply because he’s currently got first-base blocked from AGon, and because it might be hard for him to move to third now as it’s getting later in the game. Beltre obviously is a possibility, especially if he hits like he did in 09. On that one year deal though, they might also figure, screw Beltre’s feelings, and lets basically put him on the bench for the rest of the year. There are definitely options, and unless it really looks like an impossible situation, or that their prospect package just isn’t enticing enough to San Diego, they will be doing their darndest to get AGon.

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

Right. But I think it would be much better for the sox to wait two years so they don’t have to give up kelly or any other good players. They already have a great team.

ELPinchy
5 years 6 months ago

They are more likely to say screw Ortiz and give him away moving Youk to DH/back-up 1B/back-up 3b. That will work fine for one year. next year ORtiz,Varitek and Beltre are likely all gone and the Log jam is over.

5 years 6 months ago

For Gonzalez the Red Sox will pay all of Beltre’s salary and send him somewhere else. Its not a problem. At the deadline Beltre will be owed 5 million for the rest of the year the Red Sox could find that money under the sofa.

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

Right. That’s not the problem. Why not keep Beltre and wait until 2011 to sign him so they don’t have to dish out Kelly or Westmoreland.

BoSoxSam
5 years 6 months ago

Would love to do that, of course the teams worry be seeing a team trading for him and extending. Dunno if that would happen for sure, but it’ll be tough to decide whether to nab him now or hope that whoever does isn’t able to extend him.

jb226
5 years 6 months ago

I honestly think that’s part of why Gonzalez is suddenly talking about, essentially, wanting $100MM (I realize he didn’t say that specifically, but I agree with the interpretation that it means pretty much that).

$100MM to extend him takes almost every team in baseball out of the running. The only teams who could really consider such a thing without completely hamstringing themselves are Boston, either New York team, either Chicago team, the Dodgers, Phillies and maybe the Angels. Of those, given current financial commitments, I’d say the Dodgers, both Chicago teams, the Phillies and the Mets are instantly out of the running. The Yankees might be too, but you can never predict if they will actually stick to this payroll they stay they have — particularly for a player of Gonzalez’s magnitude.

In other words, Boston, NYY and maybe the Angels are probably the only teams who can afford him. And for what it’s worth, the Yankees happen to have a pretty good first baseman locked up long-term. I can’t see anybody paying what it would take to acquire Gonzalez without believing they could extend, meaning those are the only realistic teams to get it done. With this one comment, he may just have guaranteed himself being dealt to one of three locations–with only two of them likely. Not a bad day’s work.

BoSoxSam
5 years 6 months ago

Wow. Like like like this post! 😀 That’s exactly what I’ve been thinking, just haven’t been able to put it down that clearly. This comment by AGon gets me extremely excited for the Red Sox, not just because it means he’s leaving San Diego but because he wants the money. Love it or hate it, the Red Sox are one of the teams that has the money, as well as being one of the teams that would actually be interested. Obviously the Yankees would be interested but they’ve got an even bigger positional logjam than the Sox. The extension is why I see AGon going to the Sox; you’ve got to think after this money comment he’s going to push hard for the extension with whatever team he’s traded to.

theWeiz
5 years 6 months ago

the orioles have the cash. and don’t be shocked if the mariners not only trade for him, but sign him long term.

SDscott16
5 years 6 months ago

Neftali+Smoak=Gonzales to the Rangers

tmoney352
5 years 6 months ago

No way. Smoak + Feliz equals way cheaper and more potential. And taking Gonzo back to the Rangers would be JD admitting terrible defeat as he once traded AD away. As a Ranger fan, I would be devastated if either Smoak or Feliz is traded.

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

Agreed, no way do the Rangers give up their core of young rising stars. I’d say Tanner Scheppers and Julio Borbon will do it.

Taskmaster75
5 years 6 months ago

There’s no way the Padres would take that though. They need really high impact MLB players. Smoak would almost have to be included, and maybe a few other good MLB prospects, not necessarily Feliz.

SDscott16
5 years 6 months ago

You remember that Daniels got more than that for Tex and they profile as
very similar players. I think the deal would include one for sure maybe
both. I think the “admitting a mistake” line is overated. I think the bigger
issue would be the ownership situation and their ability to afford that kind
of contract. As a Ranger fan it must be nice to see the direction the club
is headed. Loads of talent and Nolan on board. Not bad.

bringbackandruw
5 years 6 months ago

“At the time you take the security…the next one is where I look for what I deserve.”

What you deserve? No, its what you want. Lets get that straight first. Second i dont think the Braves will pony up that kind of money for him. Liberty Media is cheap.

WHERE’S TED TURNER WHEN YOU NEED HIM

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

I think he will sign with the Red Sox. But I wouldn’t expect him to be traded to the Red Sox mid-season.

BoSoxSam
5 years 6 months ago

Good point, although if someone is making strong headway in the middle of the season (I’m looking at you Seattle), I wouldn’t be surprised to see a mid-season move for him.

fnpadre
5 years 6 months ago

The “hometown discount” just doesn’t cut it with a guy of AGon’s caliber. If the Padres want to keep him, they’ll have to pay full price, but it won’t happen unless the payroll gets to a number where they can feel comfortable harboring a $18M+ player.

Not sure who they’re actually going to pay next year…nobody’s going to be paid more than $6M on the 2011 payroll…

5 years 6 months ago

this sounds the begining of the end of A-Gon tenure as a padre uniform

Spirit of '69
5 years 6 months ago

At the moment have to believe Boston has the inside track. They’ve got players to trade, they have a good connection with the front office, they have the money to pay him, and he’s their answer to Texeira. Mariners and White Sox could also play. If Braves weren’t willing to pay Texeira why would they pay AGon? Dodgers could pay him but I doubt SD trades him within the division if they get decent offers elsewhere.

Ferrariman
5 years 6 months ago

Where the he’ll would the redsox put agonz?? On youk’s mustache?

ELPinchy
5 years 6 months ago

DH/1B, Ortiz would be dumped in the street that very day.

5 years 6 months ago

I totally agree. The Braves have their own top rated 1B prospect (Freeman) and likely won’t want to repeat the Texeira mistake again. Boston has a deep farm system and tons of big market money.

5 years 6 months ago

Why should he give the Padres a “hometown discount?” It’s not as if they’re proving to him that they’re looking to win. If I were him, I’d sign for top dollar with the Red Sox and actually enjoy playing on a winning team.

danks50
5 years 6 months ago

I like all the Red Sox fans that seem to believe they already have him locked up, considering a) they have a full lineup and are paying the untradeable David Ortiz for the next two years and b) if the Red Sox prospects do not in fact produce Hoyer’s future with the Padres will immediately be in jeopardy as if he cannot spot talent out of his former teams farm the Padres FO will be wondering what use is he as a general manager.

philpbarnes
5 years 6 months ago

Just a small point, but David Ortiz is probably gone after this year. He has a $12.5m club option for 2011.

ELPinchy
5 years 6 months ago

he will be lucky to hang around half the season.

BoSoxSam
5 years 6 months ago

The risk that the prospects don’t produce will be a risk Hoyer has to take with any deal he makes for AGon. I think, if Epstein is still as interested as he’s been recently, the Red Sox have a good chance to get this done. I don’t think a crowded lineup will stop Epstein. Neither will Ortiz’s salary. If he plays well in the first half, he may be the one traded to fit AGon in anyway. Or Beltre, or very unlikely, maybe Youkilis. Epstein can and will make the moves if he is still infatuated with AGon. If he’s decided to go in another direction, then he won’t be a Red Sox, at least not this year. It’s also possible Epstein waits until 2011 in hopes that he doesn’t get extended with his new team, but right now, I’ll place my bets on the Red Sox trading for him midseason.

bustercherrie
5 years 6 months ago

I would love to see the Mariners get him. I don’t think we have the prospects to trade and I don’t think GMZ will give up what we talent we do have for A-Gon right now. I don’t know if the Red Sox will go hard after him either. My guess is that everyone kind of waits till he becomes a free agent and then there is a massive bidding war. If he becomes a free agent… I don’t believe anything mentioned in the media about players, unless you know A-Gon from working out the gym or are best friends with him I don’t care what the “latest report is”.

I understand everyone talks about winning, and yes, winning is nice.. I played baseball my entire life and through college… some of the most fun times I had was when I was on winning teams and playing in play offs and the post season. But, I would also like to see him stay in SD. I think every team, regardless, of how committed they are to winning or how bad their front office is needs that face of the franchise that star player. Because one of the things that we tend to over look when we are looking at that next stud player that would really help our team is that we are taking something from other fans. The point of baseball is to win, I understand that… but I also think that there should be more players staying with their teams. I don’t think every player should, because free agency and trades provide so much fun and add a great intrigue to baseball but I would like to see some guys stay put for sometime.

Some front offices just plain ole’ suck. I know I had to deal with that for time with the Dark Ages in Seattle aka the Bavasi Era. But, I wouldn’t be that shocked if A-Gon actually stayed with the Padres for a few more seasons. I’d love to see him traded and look forward to all the rumors but when it’s all said and done I wouldn’t be overly shocked to see him stay. Because again, I don’t believe all that’s reported in the media, a lot of these guys are just trying to get their hit ratings up and don’t always post the most accurate details. It will be an awesome 2010 season and I look forward to this season not just for my Mariners, but for every team. I miss playing baseball and I wish I could have the opportunity that some of these players have… to be talked about all over numerous blogs and commented on by ton’s on interested fan’s praying for that next big trade and world series championship to follow it. Good luck this year ladies and gents!

xTheHalosx
5 years 6 months ago

Great post, gotta agree 100%. It would be nice sometimes for players to show they aren’t always about the money, but also can’t blame them for wanting a payday that they deserve (as Gonz put it). Good luck to the M’s and go Halos :p

Ferrariman
5 years 6 months ago

If it really was a 6-1 trade, I doubt ackley was involved.

bustercherrie
5 years 6 months ago

Ackley can’t be involved for sometime anyways. I forget the exact rules but I think its a year or more after the draft that a player cannot be traded. I’m going from memory but I think the trade deadline would have passed by the time that they could acquire A-Gon… and they can’t use a PTBNL on him either if I remember correctly. We discussed that on a USS Mariner blog but I forget the exact aspects of it.

dshires4
5 years 6 months ago

I think the very fact that it was 6-for-1 means that Ackley wasn’t involved…
I’m so glad that Towers was an idiot. I love the Mariners, but 6 players for Gonzalez?

bustercherrie
5 years 6 months ago

Ehh.. honestly.. I would like to know what 6 players were involved also. Because if it was not that much I’d gladly give up 6 low level non impact players. I know that’s definitely not gonna happen but it’s nice to dream. I still would hate to give up 6 players for anybody… anytime there are that many prospects in one trade I have flash backs to Erik Bedard and get a cold sweat going and start to smack my head against hard surfaces furiously… I think they call it Bavasi-itis?

55saveslives
5 years 6 months ago

Ackley can be involved…he would be a PTBNL

jwsox
5 years 6 months ago

I could see kenny williams sneaking in there and getting him. He said he does not want to do anything this off season that is huge so it does not block him from a big trade this year…And considering the deal for peavy worked out for both teams there is a strong relationship there. The whitesox have the prospects to pull a deal for this…come on they supposedly had a deal for halladay involving 2 of our top prospects but halladay supposedly turned it down

disgustedcubfan
5 years 6 months ago

He would be a great fit for the White Sox. However, Beckham along with Flowers, Hudson and Jordan Danks are some or all of the names the Padres will want in return.
Then Kenny would have to come up with something in the 6 year/$110 million range to lock him up.
As of now, the Red Sox have the most prospects to offer and can afford to sign him to a long term deal.

the_show
5 years 6 months ago

lol not really, We gave the Padres a lot less than that for Peavy.

danks50
5 years 6 months ago

It was a different situation with the money Peavy was making. The wanted to get out from under a long term deal and were looking to shed payroll. As for Adrian he currently one of the biggest bargains in baseball and would probably come close to destroying our farm.

billmelton
5 years 6 months ago

I agree that any Chisox deal would pretty much empty the system plus most likely trading Johnny Danks. That said, players like Adrian Gonzales at this price very rarely come along and would be worth it.

disgustedcubfan
5 years 6 months ago

That’s true, but A Gon has more value on the open market than Peavy, as good as Peavy is. Gonzalez is one of the top 5-7 players in the game when you factor in age, defense, hitting, and still signed for 2 more years.
He is also the face of the franchise right now in San Diego.
A handful of good prospects is not going to be enough. Every team out there can offer some promising prospects.
San Diego will insist on some young, high end, major league ready pitchers along with some “can’t miss” prospects.

danks50
5 years 6 months ago

The years of team control left with Beckham and the fact that he hit 14 HRs with a .800 OPS in 2/3 of a season playing a position he has never played before pretty much puts him off limits. He’s a rising star and one of the bright spots in a rather unproductive farm under the KW tenure which has been mainly used to acquire other talent. That being said I’m fairly certain he’ll dangle some sort of combination of Hudson, Flowers, Danks, Morel, etc and see where that gets him.

The only problem is when I think of Adrian Gonzalez hitting the trade market I think of the Mets, Orioles, Red Sox, Mariners, etc that would be interested and that alot to outbid when putting together a package, especially one that is going to command a free agent contract in the neighborhood of $100 mil, which the Sox don’t really do.

disgustedcubfan
5 years 6 months ago

I agree that Beckham is as close to off limits as it gets. I think he is a potential superstar for the next 8-10 years.
Kenny would have to be blown away to consider including him in any deal.
With that said, Kenny would trade him straight up for A Gon in a second.

the_show
5 years 6 months ago

Well they gave Konerko roughly 85 million 5 years ago so you never know

danks50
5 years 6 months ago

It was 60 million over 5 years.

the_show
5 years 6 months ago

Are you positive? I could of swore it was higher than that

jwsox
5 years 6 months ago

i cant see the bosox getting him there is too much of a jam…youk, and vmart taking up 1st(everyone knows that vmart is eventually going to be moved to 1st full time) so there is vmart there and youk baking him up so there is no space for adrian unless they want to more vmart or youk

BoSoxSam
5 years 6 months ago

Actually, I see Vmart going to DH or leaving the Sox if he can’t catch, but I see your point.

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

What do you think about a Ryan Doumit for Doubront and Fuentes?

BoSoxSam
5 years 6 months ago

If I knew more about Doumit, I could say. Isn’t he a weak defensive catcher as well? And kind of old? 😛 Again, I know nothing about him. But I guess he’s pretty decent offensively; if you’re suggesting him as Vmart’s replacement I’ll say sure, but mostly because I can’t think of anyone else to take that place..

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

He’s young, a switch hitter, and would tear up fenway.

BoSoxSam
5 years 6 months ago

Ah, okay, thanks. 😀 Well, I’ll still want to do more research on all three of those guys, but just from a vague sense of where they all place, yeah I would do that. If Doumit has the durability to stay behind the plate (none of this moving to 1st base crap :D), then that would be an interesting possibility. What I would like to see as their solution for the positional jam would be Doumit behind the plate, AGon at first, by next year Youk at third (again unless beltre has another breakout year), and VMart at DH. The only weakness there is Martinez though, simply because it’s not guaranteed he has the pop to be a strong DH. I like to think that without the wear and tear of catching he could hit 25-30 HRs as a DH, but that’s just a hopeful guess. However, even with lower power numbers I think he would be a great DH, as a switch-hitter with high BA and OBP. A little unorthodox as DH seems to be the lumbering power hitter spot, but it’s the best position for him and would suit the lineup well.

disgustedcubfan
5 years 6 months ago

Also Youk over to 3rd and Beltre let go to free agency.

ELPinchy
5 years 6 months ago

Ortiz,Varitek, possibly Beltre and who knows maybe even VMart is gone after this season.

It’s hardly an issue,they can make moves. Someone might just get benched or dumped (most likely Ortiz or Beltre if either is a disaster by midseason)

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

a 6 – 1 deal?

Lopez
Aumont
Vargas
Olson
Carp
Carrera

Maybe?

bustercherrie
5 years 6 months ago

Aumont is in Philly now… Vargas and Olson have no value, they are AAAA guys same goes for Carp… Lopez will be expensive after his next contract for one and two he can barely make the fence at Safeco I think Petco is the same size if not larger? Don’t quote me on that… going by memory. If we were talking with the Padres they’d be asking for Triunfel and Sanders and I’m sure others… it would gut the Mariners for years to come.

CrustyJuggler
5 years 6 months ago

Yeah, that 6 for 1 is not even close. Now this was supposedly last summer, correct? My guess would be something like.. Lopez, Morrow, Saunders, Aumont, and probably 2 lesser prospects.

Keep in mind this 6 for 1 deal that didn’t happen was when the Mariners still had Ramirez, Gillies, Morrow, Aumont etc.

That said, I doubt anything happens with Gonzalez and Seattle now. The M’s already used a ton of their trade chips to get Cliff Lee and B. League. That and Towers isn’t in SD anymore. Towers and Zduriencik were good buddies so with Towers out, Jack would have to start from scratch with the new GM.

I think its all water under the bridge at this point.

boy9988
5 years 6 months ago

Seattle actually has a pretty good farm system. But all their prospects are in A/AA ball. They have ALOT of blue chippers there, or at least potential blue chippers. Some of course wont pan out, but there are sure to be a few. So it all depends on where these prospects come from in the system. I can’t see Seattle making the trade now as opposed to last summer. Low minor league players just arnt as valuable in trades and JZ cleared the upper levels for the most part. But there are still a few. (Saunder, Moore, Truinfel, Hill, Fields, Carp, Liddi)

bustercherrie
5 years 6 months ago

I understand that. That’s what I mean.. we don’t have the talent or even surplus of talent to make a trade like that with out gutting ourselves. We still will have young talent in the lower minors but nothing that would potentially help us to fill another hole that may appear.

5 years 6 months ago

I wanna know who the 6 players the mariners offered! I imagine it was Truinfel, Saunders, Carp and probably the players they gave up for Cliff Lee. Hmmmm. I just wanna know.

bustercherrie
5 years 6 months ago

I would like to as well. Too bad GMZ keeps this stuff to tight lipped… leaves us guessing and wondering. I guess it’s all for the excitement in the end?

d32123
5 years 6 months ago

Mariners will probably go all out for him again at the deadline. They’ll be contention and Jack Z will view this guy as just the right piece they need to beat the Angels. They may have to destroy their future for this guy though. All prospects gone besides Ackley.

m4r1n3r
5 years 6 months ago

As much as i’d like to think the M’s will be in contention to acquire Gonzales I just don’t see it happening. We are in the process of trying to restock the farm system. We simply don’t have the chips needed to make the trade now or in the near future.

danks50
5 years 6 months ago

“He reports that a Padres source said no teams approached San Diego about a deal for Gonzalez this winter.”

I SERIOUSLY doubt this statement holds any water.

DarthVader87
5 years 6 months ago

While I’m not surprised by the no discount comment. I’m surprised he said it this early and publicly. The question from me would be, what does he think he deserves? Regardless, I think he will be traded. I also think the likely suitors, which I’m sure have not changed. Will be more than willing to give him what he deserves.

bomberj11
5 years 6 months ago

The Padres either get draft picks, or they maximize his value in a trade. I agree with you, I think he’ll be traded.

The_Thing123
5 years 6 months ago

This baseball thing is so COOL!!! Go dude they are talking about in this article!!!

5 years 6 months ago

Hoyer knows the Sox system as well as Theo does. Theo would sooner give up his left arm than a prospect he is gaga over. I see this being a tough match as Hoyer will know what he wants and Theo will hesitate to part with it.

Just a thought as Theo loves Kelly and Wetmoreland and I would have to think at least one of those two would have to be involved.

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

If I were you, I’d be dancing in Queens come late July. I really don’t see the Red Sox acquiring him. I do in fact see a Mets/Padres trade.

Adrian Gonzalez for Ike Davis, Jonathan Niese, and Wilmer Flores.

Guest
5 years 6 months ago

I could go the rest of my life without hearing Harrelson again.

Hoosierdaddy92
5 years 6 months ago

screw that, Harrelson’s the man. Love watching white sox games and hearing the hawk

BoSoxSam
5 years 6 months ago

but — you just said earlier you see the sox getting him! I is confused. 😀

atlantaspike
5 years 6 months ago

Current BA Prospects #61 and 88 and a guy who really wasn’t all that in the minors or the majors. And they say Braves fans overvalue their prospects.

GasLampGuru
5 years 6 months ago

Last year Gonzalez slugged .643 in 81 road games versus .446 in 81 home games.  He hit 28 of his 40 HR on the road in 2009.  He has posted similar splits road vs. home since 2007.  His batting average  splits have also been similar during that time (sub-.250 at home, .300+ on the road since 2007.)
In order for a lefty to have real success hitting the long ball at PetCo, he has to be two things.  First, he has to be a legitimate masher.  Second, he must have as much or more power to the opposite field as he does to his pull side.  Any lefty who doesn’t have big time power is forced to change his game/swing in order to survive in PetCo (look at what the place did to Giles).

GasLampGuru
5 years 6 months ago

Most of Adrian’s home runs in PetCo are to left or center – he avoids trying to pull the ball at home.  He has mammoth power to left.  PetCo is not as harsh on righties.  This is why the Padres are so excited about Blanks, when he hits it he makes PetCo seem small.