The Reds face a slew of contractual options after the season:
- Aaron Harang has a $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout. The option price increases by $250K if Harang reaches 210 innings. Plus, both the option price and buyout increase if he's traded. If Harang stays with the Reds through the season, they'll decline.
- Bronson Arroyo has an $11MM club option with a $2MM buyout. The option can increase to $13MM based on innings pitched. I envision the Reds declining this as well, giving them flexibility to sign a veteran replacement.
- Shortstop Orlando Cabrera has a $4MM mutual option, with a buyout that can be worth either $0.5MM or $1MM. It'll probably be the latter, assuming the player exercises and the club declines.
- Catcher Ramon Hernandez has a $3.25MM option that vests with 120 games. Assuming Ryan Hanigan stays healthy, this won't vest.
- Outfielder Jonny Gomes has a $1.75MM club option with a buyout ranging from $50K to $200K based on plate appearances.
The Reds have three other free agents in Arthur Rhodes, Mike Lincoln, and Miguel Cairo. The trio earns $5MM this year. All told the Reds will clear just under $30MM if all of these players are allowed to leave, accounting for buyouts.
The Reds have $4.76MM in increases to players under contract, most of it going to Brandon Phillips. They'll also owe first-time arbitration raises to Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Micah Owings, and Bill Bray. Jared Burton and Laynce Nix will be in the second-time class. It'll cost over $10MM extra to retain the key players, with Votto getting the biggest bump.
Holding payroll steady and allowing all free agents to leave, the Reds should have over $10MM to work with. They'll have a lot of holes to fill. If the Reds are out of the race in a few months, saving $5-10MM in salary dumps would go a long way for 2011.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.
I think the Reds could fill most of these voids internally, specifically Harang and Arroyo with Chapman and Volquez. I like the concept I’ve heard before of them swapping Alonso for Reid Brignac to fill the void at shortstop. After that, they’ll be sitting pretty going into next season (unless they decide Stubbs/Hanigan/Gomes aren’t worth playing every day)
All of the possible FA are gone and bought out except for maybe Arroyo who I think they will try to negotiate an extension at a lower annual salary depending on how the year goes. Big signing this next offseason will be a major contract for Votto pending no relapses of the mental health issues he suffered last year.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Phillips traded for a nice return if the Reds fall out of contention. We have Valaika hitting .333 at Louisville and is playing a good defensive 2B after transitioning from SS. With the exception of 2009, Valaika has been a .300+ hitter in the minors. I believe he learned how to handle adversity that season after breaking his hand.
Bruce could be extended if he has a decent year. Doing it this next offseason will be a bit of a risk but could save them millions if he keeps hitting the ball like he has been recently. Teams like the Reds need to take risks to compete long term I wouldn’t be upset if they signed him 6-7 years for 30-40 mil.
Cordero will also be shopped at the deadline if the Reds fall out of contention and there would be another 12.5mil available or close to it considering they may have to send some cash with him to get any return on the trade.
The Red really will only have two major holes to fill next season, Left Field and 5th Starting Pitcher, preferably an innings eater.
Hanigan should be able to replace Hernandez next season, if he hasn’t by the end of this season, Cozart or Janish will most likely be the SS next season, and Chapman should be able to fill in for one of Harang and Arroyo’s spot.
Volquez might be ready to start next season, but also might end up in the bullpen.
So I think $10M should be enough to find a good LF and a 5th starter, especially when the Reds have some good young talent to trade for the first time in a decade.
Do we really need a 5th starter?
They have Bailey, Cueto, Leake, Wood, and Volquez will be back. You’ve also got Chapman if he can cut down on walks and get more efficient. Besides that, you’ve got options with LeCure and journeyman like Lehr as well.
You can never have enough pitching, especially starting pitching. But I think you are right that it’s not a pressing need.
reds biggest needs from what i have seen is a real ace. chapman might become that guy, but it would never hurt to use a little of that 20million+ from arroyo/harang to get a guy like brandon webb for 12millionish if he returns healthy.
Webb is a very interesting FA we will have to see how he does this year in recovering from the injury before investing any money into him to be an ace. I wish we could land Cliff Lee but I know he will be asking for probably about 40 million more than he is worth and we can afford. LF is an area of need I was hoping Alonso could learn the spot and fill in next year. He was just promoted to AAA. Juan Fransisco as well if he can learn plate discipline. He is starting to catch fire in AAA after his horrible start.
Dickerson injury is going to let us see what Heisey has. He is another possibility for LF
Where’d you hear that Alonso was promoted to AAA?
I apologize I read it wrong Alonso is still with the AA club…I just tried to find where I read it but I couldn’t and Alonso was brought in to PH last night for Carolina. I must have been dreaming or something. Alonso must be struggling, his ave is only .250 as of yesterday.
I apologize I read it wrong Alonso is still with the AA club…I just tried to find where I read it but I couldn’t and Alonso was brought in to PH last night for Carolina. I must have been dreaming or something. Alonso must be struggling, his ave is only .250 as of yesterday.
I really like the idea of Webb. Theres a few ties with him too. Pitching coach Bryan Price and Webb is from Ashland, KY. I think if proven to be healthy theres a good possibility Webb is a Red next season.
Volquez is a real ace. And Webb isn’t making 12mil next year.
I do like the idea of Webb though on an incentive-laden deal. He said he’d like to be closer to home (Lexington, KY) and the Reds now have Webb’s former pitching coach (Brian Price) who he had so much success with. I think it’s possible.
Alonso is playing LF for AA and I’m sure we’ll see him in the bigs this year.
I like the way the Reds rotation is shaping up for next year though.
Volquez, Leake, Cueto, Bailey for sure with maybe Chapman or some mystery player as the 5th starter.
This story’s even more intriguing now that the Reds are contending.
bronson, orlando ramon and gomes options will be picked up.
rhodes and cario will be resigned as free agents.
harang option will be declined and mike lincoln will not be brought back.
with the arb eligible i say bout 21 million in raises. with burton more than likely be tendered.