Olney On Lee, Carmona, Rockies, Torre

In his newest blog post at ESPN.com (Insider-only link), Buster Olney tells the story of a phone call Michael Young made to Rangers GM Jon Daniels last summer. Just before the trade deadline, Young dialed up Daniels to tell him the players were happy with the young talent on the roster, suggesting that giving up the farm for someone like Roy Halladay wasn't necessary.

"Do what you have to do," Young told Daniels. "But don't do something just to appease us down here."

Here are Olney's other hot stove notes:

  • The Mariners have yet to shop Cliff Lee, but will soon make a decision about his availability (Twitter link).
  • The Mets are interested in Fausto Carmona, who is under contract beyond this year, unlike many of the oft-mentioned pitchers on the trade market. Olney warns that the "Oliver Perez factor" is in play, meaning that if the Mets acquired Carmona, it's unclear how he'd adjust to pitching in baseball's biggest market.
  • A hitter like Aaron Hill or Dan Uggla would fit very nicely in Colorado right now, though neither the Blue Jays or Marlins have indicated yet that they're willing to sell. Olney figures that the Rockies will try to avoid making a trade, moving forward with their current roster until Troy Tulowitzki returns.
  • As we heard earlier in the week from SI.com's Jon Heyman, Joe Torre appears unlikely to manage the Dodgers next season. "There are a couple of folks in power who are ready to turn the managerial page," according to Olney.


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43 Comments on "Olney On Lee, Carmona, Rockies, Torre"


5 years 2 months ago

what would the mets have to give up for Carmona?

wild05fan
5 years 2 months ago

Probably a couple decent, not great prospects.

5 years 2 months ago

No, it would take a lot to get Carmona off of the Indians hands. Not Lee/Halladay level’s but a lot more than a couple of decent prospects. He is after all under control until 2014 with a very very low risk team friendly contract that includes several team option years.
And most importantly, the Indians have no reason to trade him.

Probably a B,B-, and C level prospect/a high upside player in A ball.

VoteForPrado
5 years 2 months ago

This coming from the same guy that said Austin Kearns is worth Randall Delgado and Zeke Spruill.

5 years 2 months ago

Yup.Kearns is a great outfielder with a .377 wOBA. He had two bad years with the Nationals when he had nagging injuries. His career wOBA is .344.Delgado is an A ball pitcher with less than 500 IP in his major league career none of them above A ball. When trading for prospects, the further away he is the better the prospect you get in return. Especially with pitchers. Delgado is hot right now but you still have to look at the his overall historical context. If you want to play the “just look at this year” game then you’d have to give up a lot more than Delgado to get Kearns. Of course, that’s silly, because track record counts.Delgado is good but TINSTAAPP is twice as true with young A ball pitchers.

VoteForPrado
5 years 2 months ago

At no point in his entire career has Austin Kearns been worth that type of prospect. He wasn’t worth it before those two bad years in Washington either. Austin Kearns is an average player. Average players don’t get you top young pitching prospects. I don’t know if you’re undervaluing Delgado or overvaluing Kearns, but something is very wrong with your train of thought. A .260 guy with 15-18 HR isn’t very attractive.

5 years 2 months ago

You can tell you don’t know what you’re talking about by the stats you reference. HR and AVG are fairly useless statistics when it comes to evaluating players. They’re the kind of stats that you look at when you’re 12 years old and you just bought a pack of baseball cards with your allowance.

When you measure players by wOBA, a state that more accurately reflects how well a player gets on base (calculated to properly weight the value of the type of hit he got) you’d see Kearns in a completely new light.

Kearns is currently tied 11th in the AL with a .371 wOBA. and 11th in OPS. (By the way he’s tied with Choo in both categories if that gives you any insight into how well he’s playing.) The league average is wOBA is .325.Kearns’RAR is 7.8. Good luck finding that kind of player in the trade market on a dirt cheap contract.

Delgado on the other hand barely made BA’s preseason top 10. And is, and again I emphasize, pitching in A ball.

VoteForPrado
5 years 2 months ago

Yes, I am very aware of these advanced statistics, and I use them often. But, if you’ll notice, I said that a .260 guy with 15-18 HR isn’t very ATTRACTIVE. I always use these basic stats when trying to guage a guy’s trade value. When it comes down to it, these ’12-year old stats’ are the ones that matter on the trade market. They are what boost a players trade value. If a GM trades for a guy who has mediocre base stats but good peripherals, and gives up players that are worth the peripherals, he’s going to take a whole lot of heat. And, as you mentioned, he has an injury history. All this being said, I stand by my statement of Kearns being an average player. His advanced statistics aren’t mesmerizing enough to make up for a career of mediocrity. Being as it seems you don’t trust my level of intelligence, there’s an article on Fangraphs that actually says that Kearns wouldn’t bring back much in a trade. And those guys at Fangraphs know what they’re talking about, last time I checked.On a different note, you say that Delgado ‘barely’ cracked BA’s top 10.. I’m struggling to see how that helps your argument. And you keep referencing that he’s only in A-ball, but that’s really not that big of a knock on his trade value. Sure, it’s better to have someone who is closer to the big league club, but the fact of the matter is that he’s still projected to be a #1 starter, and that alone has more value than an injury riddled outfielder with an average track record.I think you’re going to be pretty upset when you only get a couple of C level prospects for Kearns..

VoteForPrado
5 years 2 months ago

Yes, I am very aware of these advanced statistics, and I use them often. But, if you’ll notice, I said that a .260 guy with 15-18 HR isn’t very ATTRACTIVE. I always use these basic stats when trying to guage a guy’s trade value. When it comes down to it, these ’12-year old stats’ are the ones that matter on the trade market. They are what boost a players trade value. If a GM trades for a guy who has mediocre base stats but good peripherals, and gives up players that are worth the peripherals, he’s going to take a whole lot of heat. And, as you mentioned, he has an injury history. All this being said, I stand by my statement of Kearns being an average player. His advanced statistics aren’t mesmerizing enough to make up for a career of mediocrity. Being as it seems you don’t trust my level of intelligence, there’s an article on Fangraphs that actually says that Kearns wouldn’t bring back much in a trade. And those guys at Fangraphs know what they’re talking about, last time I checked.On a different note, you say that Delgado ‘barely’ cracked BA’s top 10.. I’m struggling to see how that helps your argument. And you keep referencing that he’s only in A-ball, but that’s really not that big of a knock on his trade value. Sure, it’s better to have someone who is closer to the big league club, but the fact of the matter is that he’s still projected to be a #1 starter, and that alone has more value than an injury riddled outfielder with an average track record.I think you’re going to be pretty upset when you only get a couple of C level prospects for Kearns..

5 years 2 months ago

You can tell you don’t know what you’re talking about by the stats you reference. HR and AVG are fairly useless statistics when it comes to evaluating players. They’re the kind of stats that you look at when you’re 12 years old and you just bought a pack of baseball cards with your allowance.

When you measure players by wOBA, a state that more accurately reflects how well a player gets on base (calculated to properly weight the value of the type of hit he got) you’d see Kearns in a completely new light.

Kearns is currently tied 11th in the AL with a .371 wOBA. and 11th in OPS. (By the way he’s tied with Choo in both categories if that gives you any insight into how well he’s playing.) The league average is wOBA is .325.Kearns’RAR is 7.8. Good luck finding that kind of player in the trade market on a dirt cheap contract.

Delgado on the other hand barely made BA’s preseason top 10. And is, and again I emphasize, pitching in A ball.

VoteForPrado
5 years 2 months ago

At no point in his entire career has Austin Kearns been worth that type of prospect. He wasn’t worth it before those two bad years in Washington either. Austin Kearns is an average player. Average players don’t get you top young pitching prospects. I don’t know if you’re undervaluing Delgado or overvaluing Kearns, but something is very wrong with your train of thought. A .260 guy with 15-18 HR isn’t very attractive.

Zack23
5 years 2 months ago

Yeah, Perez is failing as a Met because it’s a big market. I mean it’s not like he sucked while he was with the ‘big-market’ Pirates too.

5 years 2 months ago

dillon gee, jordany valdespin, and nick evans enough?

5 years 2 months ago

there’s no way in hell the jays trade A. Hill. He’s a cornerstone of their building process and under contract with options all the way through 2014. Why on earth would they move him?

mkorpal
5 years 2 months ago

The Rockies will probably give Nelson a chance to prove himself at 2B before they do decide to shop for help.

5 years 2 months ago

yeah aaron hill doesnt seem like a player that would be traded. the jays could contend in a year or two, and you cant find many 2b who hit like hill

5 years 2 months ago

He’s not saying he’s going to be traded, he’s saying that’s the kind of player the rockies need right now…

Yankees420
5 years 2 months ago

“hit like hill”? His career slash line is .277/.332/.439, the 36 HR’s last year are nice, but he still only had a league average OBP ranking him 15th out of 21 2B according to fangraphs and he’s struggling big time at the plate this season.

5 years 2 months ago

Buster McObvious is at it again…. The Jays AND Marlins are still in it somewhat and I seriously doubt either Uggla or Hill will be dealt. This guy makes up more bogus BS than a husband at a convention….

aap212
5 years 2 months ago

The Mets already have a groundball pitcher who doesn’t strike out enough people and is due for regression this year. They also have a pitcher with upside and head issues who’s not dependable year to year.

icedrake523
5 years 2 months ago

Pelfrey does strike out enough batters; his K/9 has never been below 4.5 and is 5.9 so far this year.

aap212
5 years 2 months ago

4.5 is downright low for a guy who walks his share and isn’t an extreme groundball pitcher. 5.9 isn’t high, and isn’t high enough to sustain an ERA like he has this year.

aap212
5 years 2 months ago

4.5 is downright low for a guy who walks his share and isn’t an extreme groundball pitcher. 5.9 isn’t high, and isn’t high enough to sustain an ERA like he has this year.

icedrake523
5 years 2 months ago

4.5 K/9 is the bare minimum at which a pitcher needs to have to not be dependent upon his fielders. Bill James came up with the number based off of his research. Of course a pitcher can have a single season of success with a K/9 below 4.5 due to luck. But to maintain prolonged success, they must have a K/9 of at least 4.5.

aap212
5 years 2 months ago

I guess I’m arguing with your definition of success then. Pelfrey can be a successful pitcher with his strikeout rates, but not as good as he’s looked this year on account of luck. My main point is that his ERA is not sustainable.

icedrake523
5 years 2 months ago

4.5 K/9 is the bare minimum at which a pitcher needs to have to not be dependent upon his fielders. Bill James came up with the number based off of his research. Of course a pitcher can have a single season of success with a K/9 below 4.5 due to luck. But to maintain prolonged success, they must have a K/9 of at least 4.5.

icedrake523
5 years 2 months ago

Pelfrey does strike out enough batters; his K/9 has never been below 4.5 and is 5.9 so far this year.

Mick_Stepp
5 years 2 months ago

Somebody explain to me why the Indians would give Carmona away to the Mets. He’s coming back to form after injury riddled seasons. He had a Cy Young caliber 2007. He’s signed to a reasonable contract for 3 more seasons. Makes no sense. Also I don’t see any Mets prospects that the Indians really need. Ain’t happenin’.

5 years 2 months ago

Because big market teams are entitled to any player they want from a small market team and at 10x less value

5 years 2 months ago

spot on

5 years 2 months ago

spot on

5 years 2 months ago

Because big market teams are entitled to any player they want from a small market team and at 10x less value

Mick_Stepp
5 years 2 months ago

Somebody explain to me why the Indians would give Carmona away to the Mets. He’s coming back to form after injury riddled seasons. He had a Cy Young caliber 2007. He’s signed to a reasonable contract for 3 more seasons. Makes no sense. Also I don’t see any Mets prospects that the Indians really need. Ain’t happenin’.

hurley55
5 years 2 months ago

Hypothetically of course, I wonder what the Jays could get for Hill?

hurley55
5 years 2 months ago

Hypothetically of course, I wonder what the Jays could get for Hill?

5 years 2 months ago

please tell me again why the mets would buy?

5 years 2 months ago

because right now they’re 2.5 games out of first and one more good pitcher makes them serious contenders, especially when beltran is on his way back.

5 years 2 months ago

because right now they’re 2.5 games out of first and one more good pitcher makes them serious contenders, especially when beltran is on his way back.

5 years 2 months ago

please tell me again why the mets would buy?

5 years 2 months ago

Fausto Carmona would flourish in the NL. He doesn’t turn 27 until December, is under team control for a long time, and would cost at most a borderline A prospect and a B level prospect to get. Yes, the metrics on him say he hasn’t been as good as he currently is, but, to be honest, putting him in a league where he will pitch to a batter and, in a number of cases, 1 defensive-specialist player, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him turn into a number 2-type pitcher.

Comparing him to Oliver Perez is a joke. Unlike Ollie, Fausto figured out his problems, and has fixed them.

5 years 2 months ago

Fausto Carmona would flourish in the NL. He doesn’t turn 27 until December, is under team control for a long time, and would cost at most a borderline A prospect and a B level prospect to get. Yes, the metrics on him say he hasn’t been as good as he currently is, but, to be honest, putting him in a league where he will pitch to a batter and, in a number of cases, 1 defensive-specialist player, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him turn into a number 2-type pitcher.

Comparing him to Oliver Perez is a joke. Unlike Ollie, Fausto figured out his problems, and has fixed them.

Mick_Stepp
5 years 2 months ago

“…and would cost at most a borderline A prospect and a B level prospect to get.”

Dream on.

Mick_Stepp
5 years 2 months ago

“…and would cost at most a borderline A prospect and a B level prospect to get.”

Dream on.