Adam Dunn: Type B Free Agent?

As I mentioned earlier, Eddie Bajek's reverse-engineered Elias rankings are subject to change if we find errors.  However, the current end-of-season iteration presents an interesting possibility: Adam Dunn may be a Type B free agent.

We have Dunn at 74.166 points in the NL 1B/OF group, tied with Derrek Lee and just shy of Angel Pagan's 74.353 Type A status.  If Dunn is a Type B, here are the implications:

  • The Nationals would only be able to receive one compensation pick for losing Dunn, not two.  This would make the decision not to trade Dunn in July look worse, and could serve as extra motivation to extend him.
  • The Nationals might be more inclined to offer Dunn arbitration if he's a Type B rather than A.  Dunn's agent at Legacy Sports knows that his client's market will improve if he's a Type B, since the signing team would not have to surrender a draft pick.  An increase in Dunn's free agent stock makes him more likely to decline an arbitration offer from the Nationals in search of a multiyear deal.  The Nationals, knowing Dunn is less likely to accept as a B, might be more likely to offer him arbitration.
  • The market for Dunn will improve.  For example: at #19, the Tigers have the best unprotected draft pick for 2011.  If Dunn is a Type B who turned down an arbitration offer, they can sign him without giving up that prized pick or any others.


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