Based on Eddie Bajek's reverse-engineered Elias rankings, 83 free agents will be ranked Type A or B for the 2010-11 offseason. Right now there are 33 Type A and 50 Type B free agents. The list is below. The deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their own free agents is November 23rd. Prior to that date this list will shrink quite a bit, as certain players have options that will obviously be exercised, others will sign extensions, and Wagner and Lowell will retire. If recent history is any indication, 23-24 free agents will ultimately be offered arbitration. Keep in mind that unless a player is offered arbitration and turns it down to sign a Major League deal with another club, there is no draft pick compensation.
Type A
Albert Pujols – 96.667
Jayson Werth – 92.000
Rafael Soriano – 91.771
Derek Jeter – 91.304
Mariano Rivera – 88.609
Victor Martinez – 87.054
Cliff Lee – 86.932
Matt Thornton – 86.094
Carl Crawford – 84.615
Billy Wagner – 83.650
Adrian Beltre – 82.313
A.J. Pierzynski – 80.804
Andy Pettitte – 80.682
Vladimir Guerrero – 80.000
Ted Lilly – 79.950
Jason Kubel – 79.744
Bronson Arroyo – 79.538
Matt Guerrier – 79.483
Paul Konerko – 78.095
Magglio Ordonez – 77.436
Miguel Tejada – 76.720
Manny Ramirez – 76.154
Scott Downs – 76.069
Carl Pavano – 75.000
Ramon Hernandez – 74.517
Mark Ellis – 74.405
Dan Wheeler – 74.218
Jorge de la Rosa – 74.092
Jason Frasor – 73.446
Grant Balfour – 72.727
Frank Francisco – 72.584
Arthur Rhodes – 72.076
Takashi Saito – 69.749
Type B
David Ortiz – 75.000
Johnny Damon – 74.359
Derrek Lee – 74.167
Adam Dunn – 74.167
Hideki Matsui – 73.333
Javier Vazquez – 71.875
Jon Garland – 71.452
Brad Hawpe – 71.026
Bengie Molina – 72.321
Scott Podsednik – 70.588
Orlando Hudson – 70.238
Brandon Inge – 68.707
Jon Rauch – 68.541
Koji Uehara – 67.733
John Buck – 67.411
Felipe Lopez – 66.964
Brian Fuentes – 66.906
Pedro Feliciano – 66.733
Joaquin Benoit – 66.727
Kevin Gregg – 66.673
Orlando Cabrera – 66.667
Lance Berkman – 66.667
Octavio Dotel – 66.442
Juan Uribe – 65.608
Miguel Olivo – 65.251
Carlos Pena – 64.762
Jason Varitek – 64.732
David Eckstein – 64.732
Mike Lowell – 64.626
Jhonny Peralta – 63.946
Yorvit Torrealba – 63.707
Trevor Hoffman – 63.043
Kerry Wood – 62.666
Aramis Ramirez – 62.637
Jose Reyes – 62.434
Randy Choate – 62.379
J.J. Putz – 61.876
Adam LaRoche – 61.667
Omar Infante – 61.607
Alex Gonzalez – 61.376
Jesse Crain – 60.690
Gerald Laird – 60.045
Aubrey Huff – 60.000
Rod Barajas – 59.459
Hisanori Takahashi – 58.650
Aaron Heilman – 58.512
Chad Durbin – 58.359
Kevin Millwood – 58.049
Kevin Correia – 57.261
Chad Qualls – 56.126
the one person who this benefits the most is adam dunn.
I don;t think A status was going to stop anyone from signing Dunn.
of course it does. it really stops teams who are trying to get younger and that are in a rebuilding phase. there are a lot of teams that don’t like giving up draft picks to sign a guy who strikes out as much as he does.
I think the key here is that a team in a rebuilding phase is unlikely to be in the mix for someone like Dunn. And I seriously hope that anyone in a position to spend ~50M on a player doesn’t gauge his worth based on how frequently he strikes out.
Ever since this new CBA, in some ways those upper tier Type B players are the real places to watch for good deals. The lower end Type As are the players who get screwed.
Like, who wants to bet players like Balfour or Ramon Hernandez ends up signing really late in the offseason?
Both of those guys would accept arb offers
Isn’t Kuroda a free agent, this winter? I would think he would be a Type B, at least.
His contract allows him to be an FA, but he has only three years in the majors, so he isn’t subject to the Type A, Type B ratings. He would normally still be under team control as a three-year man, so it seems like it is the same as if he was non-tendered.
If so, how does Uehara warrant compensation?
He’s been one of the best relief pitchers in baseball for the last four months. He won’t be offered arb, though, because of his high base salary, new role in relief, and injury history.
And Takahashi, for that matter.
It would seem that Adam Dunn just added an extra couple million to his yearly salary by being a Type B.
I don’t understand, David Ortiz – 75.000
Johnny Damon – 74.359
Derrek Lee – 74.167
Adam Dunn – 74.167
Hideki Matsui – 73.333
Javier Vazquez – 71.875
Jon Garland – 71.452
Brad Hawpe – 71.026
Bengie Molina – 72.321
Scott Podsednik – 70.588
Orlando Hudson – 70.238
Those guys have a higher ranking in the Elias Rankings than a bunch of guys in the Type A list
Every Type A at 75 or below is a pitcher. It’s the top N% of the pitchers and top N% of the batters that become Type A.
Sorry, that was too simplistic, it is the top 20% of each position group that is type A. The position groups are:
– 1B, OF, DH
– catchers
– other infielders
– starting pitchers
– relief pitchers
So basically for a 1B,OF,DH to be a type A they need 75 or above.Catchers above 74Infielders above 73SP above 70RHP above 69????
I don’t think that has anything to do with it. It’s the top “x” amount of players at each positional category. So that might explain why Saito’s 69.74 is the lowest ranking of the Type A (and all other relievers beneath him are Type B’s) yet his ranking is lower than David Ortiz who ranks @ a crisp 75.00 and is considered a Type B.
Surprised to see Jose Reyes so low at 62.43 type B
Keep in mind that the formula use stats from the last 2 years. They use it in a cumulative value so if player A hit 10 HRS in May 2009 but missed the rest of the season and then hit 30 HRS in 2010 then his HR avg’s out to 20 HRS for 2009-2010 which doesn’t really show how good of a HR hitter he is. Jose Reyes missed a lot of time in 2009 therefor his 2 year avg is pretty low. Sucks to be him.
Yeah that makes sense.. So how does this effect his chances in the offseason… Does this mean that the Mets will pick up his option for.. I think its 11 million, or is it smarter for him to move on?
I can’t imagine the Mets just letting him walk. I don’t think they’ll make any moves to extend until after 2011 and despite his decreased Sb and lower OBP he still had a great year for a SS. If he gets off to a good year and the Mets suck it early in 2011 we might see him traded at the deadline though.
The Elias rankings account for time spent on the DL.
Up to 60 days of DL time is prorated. Reyes spent more than 60 days on the DL last year so not all of that time is prorated.
In the meantime, he really hasn’t been that good the past two years.
I know Wagner has stuck by his intention to retire but I won’t truly believe it until it happens. It’d be hard for a competitor like him to walk away from the game and the money, even at his age, after having such a good season. I’d like to see him come back for another year (or two) if for no other reason than to pad his stats for when he’s eligible for the HOF. He may not get in but he could make it a tougher decision for the voters if he raked up another 40-80 saves.
Breaking records always helps your bid. I see him making it, but maybe not any time soon.
What about NYM RP Takahashi? Isn’t he a type B free agent?
I would be shocked if the Mets didn’t pick up Reyes option though.
To me the best values on that Type B list are….
Adam Dunn (7 years of 38 hrs +)
Aubrey Huff (good in ever offensive way. Power, plate discipline and good bat avg)
John Buck (C w/ 20 hrs are hard to find)
Kevin Gregg (4 years of 30+ saves)
Juan Uribe (20 dbls/20 hrs from a SS-3B)
Carlos Pena (4 years of 30 hrs +)
Adam LaRoche (3 years of 25 hrs and 30 dbls)
Alex Gonzales (good glove, 40 dbls and 20 hrs this year despite a horrible OBP)
Jesse Crain (solid ERA @ 3.04 and whip @ 1.18 and won’t cost a pick)
LOL @ Damon being ranked higher than Dunn. This system shows nothing of how valuable a player is.
Well, Damon is only ranked marginally higher than Dunn. Their offensive numbers are actually comparable, although Dunn hit about 40 more HRs than Damon, he also stuck out about 200 more times. He also had one of the worst defensive seasons in the history of UZR in 2009 (yeah thats probably hyperbole, i don’t really care enough to look it up but it sounds good) and that probably drops his value considerably. Damon has been almost perfectly average defensively.
(a) pretty sure defensive metrics aren’t used in elias (which invalidate 75% of your argument)(b) you’re talking about his UZR for one season at a position he no longer plays (OF)(c) their offensive numbers aren’t even close to comparable. Dunn’s last two years(OBP/SLG/OPS).398 .529 .928 .356 .536 .892Damon’s last two.365 .489 .854.355 .401 .756wow, 756 OPS, eh?add to that the fact that damon will have a difficult time finding a starting job and that dunn will probably make $12-15M per season in a multi year deal…
“Their offensive numbers are actually comparable, although Dunn hit about 40 more HRs than Damon”
Oh, is that all?
Are the arbitration rules for FA the same as the super 2 thru <6 year arbitration eligible?? I believe the regular arbs can't be offered less than 80% of last years contract. If the Yankees offer Berkamn (15) or Wood(10) arb is the minimum the can offer 12 and 8 mil??? Thanks
‘mininmum’
‘mininmum’
There is no minimum arbitration offer for free agents.
There is no minimum arbitration offer for free agents.
Chad Durbin’s been a pretty effective reliever over the past couple of years. I’m not surprised he ranks. He’s been a quality arm. A weak catching market really, really, helps Gerald Laird. LOL
I was just talking with a friend about how flawed these rankings were. It’s ridiculous to see the seasons that these guys have had, and the fact that they were still able to make this list, even if they had a pretty decent 2009. (I’m looking at YOU Chad Qualls.)
I bet Saito will retire.