Mariners Not On Justin Upton’s No-Trade List

4:08pm: The A's, Indians, Tigers and Royals are the teams on Upton's no-trade list, according to Rosenthal (on Twitter).

TUESDAY, 3:40pm: The Mariners are not on Upton's no-trade list, according to his representatives at Reynolds Sports (on Twitter).

MONDAY: Justin Upton has four teams on his no-trade list, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports: the Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, and Royals.  A previous Rosenthal report had included the Indians instead of the Mariners.  Rosenthal tweets that the Mariners indeed have interest, but they'd be very reluctant to meet Arizona's starting point of Dustin Ackley.

The Royals, Blue Jays, Marlins, Orioles, Red Sox, and Yankees are reportedly among the other interested teams.  On Friday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the D'Backs were approached by 15-16 teams about Upton at the GM Meetings, five of which "showed a strong inclination to push talks further along."  The Yankees are not among the five.


214 Responses to Mariners Not On Justin Upton’s No-Trade List Leave a Reply

  1. InLeylandWeTrust 5 years ago

    Just trade him already!

  2. 14 Rocks 5 years ago

    Why do the Mariners think that they could get a guy like Upton without parting with Dustin Ackley? Any team that wants him is going to have to give up probably at least 3 of their top 5 prospects, including their #1 prospect.

    • not_brooks 5 years ago

      It’s not that the M’s think they can get Upton without trading Ackley.

      It’s just that they don’t want to trade Ackley.

      • boy9988 5 years ago

        Exactly. Seattle cant afford to give up any of its top prospects seeing as how they don’t have any quality ML players anyway. In the end this is for the best. Besides, I think Justin Upton is way overblown anyway. His numbers are not that special. To move from being a quality player to become an superstar he would have to cut down his Ks by nearly a third and boost his HRs into the 30s. He isn’t there yet, and its possible he never will. And as for Seattle, Upton’s bat would come here to die in Safeco anyway.

        • Muggi 5 years ago

          You’re right, not there yet and may never will…but he’s friggin 23. He’s younger than many prospects and he’s already a quality player. Of player/prospects who are likely to take the next step to superstardom, Upton’s gotta near-top of any list.

          • not_brooks 5 years ago

            And the top of that list is Robert Andino.

          • I think Heyward is going to better, personally.

          • CaseyBlakeDeWitt 5 years ago

            Heyward is not available though.

          • atrain17 5 years ago

            Heyward is going to be WAAAAAY better. Upton is overrated. Don’t believe me? Read my post below and see why.

          • M_Harden 5 years ago

            Yeah just because Heyward is better that must mean Upton sucks.

        • “Besides, I think Justin Upton is way overblown anyway. His numbers are not that special. ”

          3 .800 OPS seasons by the age of 23. Yeah he sucks.

          • boy9988 5 years ago

            “3 .800 OPS seasons by the age of 23. Yeah he sucks. ”

            Yeah, and he has more Ks than hits. Like i said, he is over-hyped. He is worth those prospects if he is going to be a superstar. But is K rate and BABIP have me a bit scared. His BABIP is really high, Ichiro type high, and its not likely that it can stay there. Couple that with his K rate, that sets him up for a potentially big crash.

            That said, he could gain a better eye down the road, improve his OBP and at the same time garner better pitches to hit and become that elite superstar. I’m just saying he isn’t there yet and is still just as likely to not make it.

            Its far too big of a risk outside of the NY teams and Boston. Those teams are the only ones that could loose the prospects and still be able to buy a competitive team.

          • jdub220 5 years ago

            You know that BABIP is a skill, right? His career BABIP is .345.

          • M_Harden 5 years ago

            In a “down” year, no less.

      • This is exactly true. We really don’t want to give up Ackley/Pindea/Smoak. But I won’t be mad if we got Upton.

      • This is exactly true. We really don’t want to give up Ackley/Pindea/Smoak. But I won’t be mad if we got Upton.

    • Maybe so, but for a guy who strikes out 25% of the time, hasn’t played in more than 138 games in his career, saw his SLG dip almost 100 points, plays in a hitters park, has a drop in OPS on the road that’s .150 points lower than it is at home…….it’s not worth it. 3 of an organization’s top 5 prospects, as well as their #1 prospect? I don’t care how good his defense is or how affordable he is, it just isn’t worth the risk.

    • m4r1n3r 5 years ago

      They don’t. ‘Reluctant’ does not = ‘won’t’. Obviously any team is going to be reluctant to trade their #1 prospect.

    • M_Harden 5 years ago

      They really don’t need to trade Ackley to acquire J-Up. Anything involving two of Smoak, Pineda, Franklin plus more might suffice.

  3. someone other than florida pick him up.

  4. Shikikazu 5 years ago

    Dustin Ackley? No thanks Arizona

    • Personally, I think many scouts over-rated Ackley but we’ll see.

      • atrain17 5 years ago

        Sure….. the kid just won the AFL MVP, led the league in BA (.424), OBP (.581), SLG (.758), and OPS (1.338!!!!). But what do those numbers mean….. nothing right? Totally over-rated.

        I wish there were a fail button for comments.

        • In those small sample analysis 20 games Ackley faced inferior pitching in the AFL. In 52 of his 66 at bats he faced right handed pitching, as a left-handed batter he feasted. Dustin Ackley had 18 errors in 121 games last season at second base in the minors. Scouts rate his arm at below average, and he is simply average to below average defensively at second base. He offers single digits home run power, despite high on base skills, Ackley is grossly overrated.

          • atrain17 5 years ago

            Inferior pitching??? What, do you think he was facing high schoolers? It’s so easy to say that but that pitching is right on Ackley’s level. Actually, most of those pitchers have been in the pro ball much longer than Ackley. Besides, even if it is inferior, he still led the league. The same league Brice Harper, Austine Romaine, Zack Cox, etc.. were in.

            You’re right though, Dustin Ackley murders right handed pitching. Good thing 75% of MLB pitchers are right handed.

            He’s definitely a work in progress at 2nd base (a new position,) but he’s FAR from overrated.

          • atrain17 5 years ago

            P.S. Derek Jeter had 56 errors in 126 games in 93′ in the minors while playing the same position he had always played….. I think he and his 4 Gold Gloves turned out okay.

          • raffish 5 years ago

            Dustin Ackley offers more than single digit home run power. I bet he hits fifteen by the time he’s twenty-five.

    • TreyIII 5 years ago

      Just so we’re clear, Ackley, who’s 6 months younger than Upton, put up a .775 OPS in AA/AAA.

      Ackley’s ceiling is Upton’s age 21 MLB season. Think about that for a moment.

      • It’s not that anyone is claiming Ackley’s his equal or will be better. He’s just the starting point, obviously there would have to be others included in order to sway Arizona.

        ‘Ackley’s ceiling is Upton’s age 21 MLB season. Think about that for a moment.’

        Completely disagree with that.

        • TreyIII 5 years ago

          Well, sorry you don’t agree, but Ackley’s projection in a best case scenario world is to become Chase Utley. Right now, Ackley is best-described as ‘rough’ at 2B (as you would expect for a young player trying to learn a new position). Offensively, the M’s would be ecstatic if Ackley’s bat turned out to be anything close to Utley, who has a career .894 OPS.

          Upton’s 2009 OPS as a 21 year old?

          .899

          Ackley’s ceiling is Upton’s age 21 MLB season.

          • “Upton’s 2009 OPS as a 21 year old?

            .899″

            Upton’s 2010 OPS as a 22 year old?

            .799

            I’m in now way saying that Ackley is going to be as good or better. But it’s understandable why an organization would be weary of trading the farm for Justin Upton(again, Ackley’s just the starting point), who has 150 point difference in his home/away OPS, K’s 25% of the time, hasn’t played in more than 138 games as of yet, and in my opinion just doesn’t have the plate discipline to be what people are expecting.

          • atrain17 5 years ago

            Oh….. and has shoulder issues as a 23 year old

      • atrain17 5 years ago

        GENERALLY, when a player is putting extra time into learning a new position, he has no extra time to work on his hitting…… this is cumbersome especially when seeing the next level of talent (ala, making the transition from college to the pro’s.) WHEN that said player feels comfortable enough to start to switch the focus back to his hitting, he wins the AFL MVP and hits .424 in 68 ab’s.

        Once again, I wish there was a fail button for comments.

        • TreyIII 5 years ago

          Making baseless claims/excuses for his offensive struggles… then using AFL stats and passing them off as analysis.

          You’re right, this is exactly where a fail button would be beneficial.

          • atrain17 5 years ago

            Hahaha…. Touche! The next time you lead any league in most every offensive catagories, I’ll tell you how high your ceiling is. Who do you scout for again?

          • atrain17 5 years ago

            Oh, also, it wasn’t me making excuses for Ackley’s position change as having an effect on his batting average. It was MLB.com so direct your hostility towards them: link to mlb.mlb.com

          • atrain17 5 years ago

            I’m not going to wait for the moderator to approve my link…..

            My “baseless claim/excuses for his offensive struggles” were not mine excuses, they were a reporters for MLB dot com….. you can look it up if you want. Just search “Ackley wins AFL MVP” and read the article. It’s a good read.

          • raffish 5 years ago

            Dustin Ackley kicked butt May through November. The guy is nails. Watch him hit. He’s going to be a star.

      • damnitsderek 5 years ago

        Candidate for dumbest statement of the week.

        Good thing you didn’t forget to add in that it was his first professional season, the AAA numbers were a small sample size, and if you take April out of the equation, his numbers are through the roof.

        Don’t acknowledge his tools or position versatility, either. That would make your argument too easy, right?

        Seriously, before you make unfounded statements such as this one, be prepared to back it up with more than a small sample number from the guy’s first professional season.

        • bustersposey 5 years ago

          being able to not play 2nd base isn’t ‘position versatility’. ackley’s a weird prospect to me. great avg. and obp potential, nice speed, but not much power and has only proven he could play 1st. i hear is arm is way below avg. so cf may be tough, too. if he can only play lf or 1st, im not a fan of the offensive profile.

  5. raffish 5 years ago

    An odd spectrum of cities. Aside from being an American League issue, is it an organizational thing, a park thing, or a regional thing? Detroit is a strong team. Kansas City is a hitter’s park. Maybe Seattle and Oakland are deep pitcher’s parks, and Detroit/Kansas City are undesirable cities? Seattle has weather issues.

    You’d think Pittsburgh would find its way onto every no-trade list.

    • boy9988 5 years ago

      Why does everyone think Seattle has weather issues? Have you ever been here before. We have nice pleasant 80-90 degree summers with mild non sub-zero winters. Unlike say, all of New England.

      -Note i realize I’m writing this with snow on the ground outside, but this is the first time in like 20 yrs we have had snow in Nov. And minor fluke.

      • TheodoreRoosevelt 5 years ago

        Everything we know about Seattle comes from Frasier :)

      • raffish 5 years ago

        Lived here 35 years, boy9988. It’s not that I mind the weather; I like it fine. Nonetheless, people are under the impression it rains all the time in Seattle. While it might not rain as much as people think, there is a reason we lead the nation in suicide and depression.

        Still, nothing in the world can touch Seattle in the summertime, and our winters are pretty mild. I’ve traveled the entire country several times over and there isn’t a place I’d rather live.

      • From Wikipedia… This reputation derives from this frequency of precipitation (150 days of precipitation > 0.01 in/0.3 mm) as well as the fact that it is cloudy an average of 201 days and 93 partly cloudy days per year.

      • I’m sorry, KC is a hitter’s park? Fly balls go here to die, dude.

        • raffish 5 years ago

          Maybe I’m wrong. I was always under the assumption that KC was one of the more hitter friendly parks in the AL.

          • To gap and average hitters, but it saps power out of everybody. It’s a hitter’s park in the same way you could call PETCO a hitter’s park. Not a lot of homers get here, but if a ball finds its way past the OF, you can get extra bases. If it is a a hitter’s park, it’s not good to power bats.

          • RoyalBlue 5 years ago

            Sorry you are wrong about that…

          • basemonkey 5 years ago

            Nope. KC is not.

    • jwredsox 5 years ago

      Why the Pittsburg hate? as long as he doesn’t mind being on a bad team its a team with some good players, a great ballpark, and in a great city.

      • moonraker45 5 years ago

        Its true, pittsburgh is very nice.

      • raffish 5 years ago

        Just a cheap shot at the team. The closest I’ve been to Pittsburgh is York and Dayton, OH.

    • Before they mentioned the Mariners instead of the Indians, I didn’t find it too hard to believe…

      Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland, and Cleveland…yeah, I wouldn’t want to live in any of those places, either.

      Seattle threw a wrench in that theory.

      -C

      • jdub220 5 years ago

        Exactly what I was thinking. I don’t blame him for not wanting to live in Detroit, KC, Oakland or Cleveland, but why not Seattle?

      • Fun Fact: Most of the players on all KC sports teams don’t actually live in KC, there’s a bunch of suburbs around with VERY nice custom-built homes for these guys. The neighborhoods for KC players are great, they’re just not in KC.

        • raffish 5 years ago

          KC is a dirt field with a river and an expansive downtown. Suburbs or no suburbs, there’s nothing there.

          • The city itself is pretty nice, but outside KC, I agree there’s pretty much nothing but cookie-cutter subrubs and the highways. Good people though, that’s why I like it here.

          • RoyalBlue 5 years ago

            yes there is nothing here… you are right! not really but think want you want…

          • Carl06 5 years ago

            Yeah I’m guessing you’ve never actually lived in Kansas City. There aren’t too many dirt fields anywhere around here. There is a river, of course, and plenty of farms once you get 45 minutes away from the city. But the city and most of the suburbs are pretty awesome.

            Negro Leagues HoF, professional baseball, football and soccer, a great jazz district with the Jazz Hof, some cool bars and restaurants, the Nelson Atkins museum, the zoo… there’s plenty to do here.

    • woadude 5 years ago

      Safeco has a retractable roof, the 1st in the league if im not mistaken..

  6. This is probably for the best. I would rather hold on to Smoak, Ackley, and Pineda anyways.

  7. AceGunderson 5 years ago

    How many comments in this thread can we expect along the lines of “I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn’t have to give up that much!”

    • andrewyf 5 years ago

      Pay them the major league minimum?

    • …because I’m the NL All-Star team in 2000?
      -wtk

      • moonraker45 5 years ago

        ..because you didn’t get the reference.

        -moonraker45

    • If Upton didn’t get injured last year and came off a season where he hit 30+HR and 100+RBI’s like he’s projected to then it wouldn’t be an issue. He’s obviously a super-star in the making but his bump in the road last year is giving teams a lot of caution and even though if they did trade him they would get a huge return, one would think their return would be even bigger if they waited until the deadline or next offseason when he has the kind of year he’s supposed to.

      Even though they’re two different players when you look at his brother and the talent he displayed and then his dramatic drop-off, it kind of makes you worried that the same thing might happen to him. I’m not saying it will. I personally think he has what it takes to be one of the best among active players but that “what if…” is definitely there with this guy.

    • boy9988 5 years ago

      If you think Justin Upton compares to Bonds or Jr….you are sadly mistaken.

    • S8P7W 5 years ago

      Classic Seinfeld line.

    • bustersposey 5 years ago

      “well, tell it to the new assistant to the gm”

    • moonraker45 5 years ago

      dude you cut out the best part

      Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found
      a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn’t have to give up
      that much.!

    • bustersposey 5 years ago

      “well don’t tell it to me george, tell it to the new assistant to the gm.”

  8. not_brooks 5 years ago

    I’ve got to laugh at the mention of the Orioles.Andy MacPhail doesn’t trade prospects for established players. It’s just not in his MO.Although, if the O’s sign Victor Martinez, I could envision a swap of Matt Wieters and a pitcher (Arrieta? Britton?) for Upton. But, then again, MacPhail doesn’t give out contracts to big name free agents either, so…

    • basemonkey 5 years ago

      If the Orioles were to trade for Upton, it would probably involve some of their OF depth. Perhaps even Markakis or Jones? Who knows? Just to float the ideas around. They also have Pie and Reimold who are quality young bats with potential. They would have to find some way of addressing an extra OF player because they already have locks for 2 of the positions right now.

    • not_brooks 5 years ago

      On second thought, that package wouldn’t be nearly enough. It would probably take Wieters and Brian Matusz just to get things started.

      • Ha! Your ability to judge talent is just sad. A package of Wieters and Matusz (with maybe a few throw-ins) could get 80% (maybe more) of MLB Players.

        Not to mention the fact that they would never trade either one unless Troy Tulowitzki was put on the trade block.

        • not_brooks 5 years ago

          First off, you’re right. A Wieters/Matusz package does have that sort of fetching ability. And that’s why it would take that much for the Orioles to acquire Justin Upton. In terms of trade value, Upton is among the top ten in the game.Second, I never said the Orioles would make that trade. Just that it would take that much if they were serious about Upton, which they aren’t.

          • Eric 5 years ago

            Wieters, matusz, markakis, and Jones are virtually untouchable…though Jones could go with the right offer. To land upton it would take a major league ready arm like arrieta, plus prospects likes britton, plus some guys who have high upsides like reimold and pie…plus someone on their roster who can contribute at a low cost like scott. And even with that, there is not enough positional players to gain in return for the D-Backs to give him up. They dont HAVE to trade him…they are seeing what they can get. if they can receive a top 50 minor league talent for him plus some players with upside and a vet to contribute to something now, then they will do it…but who has that and is willing? I dont think any team is going to give away their best 2 or 3 young players/minor leaguers for a guy who just had an off year…no matter his potential. And as much as id love to see upton with my O’s, with what we would have to give up, it just seems like it may not be worth it. Even with upton, we are sitll 5 peices away from contending. We need a top of the line starter plus an innigs eater, help in the bullpen, a ss, a power hitting 1b/dh, a 3b that can handle the bat, and some depth on our bench. Giving up the farm for upton only maybe helps compensate for one of those. So its a pipe dream. If they are going to go all in, id hope it would be for someone like greinke…bc KC is also looking for payroll help and they could still find a way around giving up their best players or prospects to get him.

          • basemonkey 5 years ago

            Sorry, I understand what you are saying, and I want to see it from your point of view, but it just sounds like you’ve just only recently checked into their stats, and pretending to have been following them this whole time (respectfully, not to your discredit either).

            I can agree with you that Matusz and Wieters might not be as far along as Upton might be in terms of establishing themselves. True. But they are all playing at different positions. And, Wieters and Matusz have not done anything to diminish their values. As good a young player as Upton is, to deal both of them to acquire Upton is like trading away 2 Uptons to get back one.

        • Justin Upton’s worth is not that far off Troy Tulowitzki.

          • RoyalBlue 5 years ago

            Are you kidding because I hope you are…Tulo plays SS enough said…

          • Yes and Grienke is a #1 pitcher. Do your arguments contain anything more than ‘well he plays THIS position’

        • raffish 5 years ago

          Have to think Weiters and Matusz is more valuable than Upton by quite a bit. Weiters and Upton are about on par, while Matusz is a stud, too.

          • not_brooks 5 years ago

            Wieters and Upton are on par? How so?

            Wieters will be 25 in May of 2011. He has a .721 OPS in 800 big league at bats.

            Upton will be 23 in August of 2011. He has an .824 OPS in 1517 big league at bats.

            Don’t try to tell me that the fact that Wieters is a switch-hitting catcher makes up for the fact that he’s two years older and is behind Upton by 100 points in OPS.

          • basemonkey 5 years ago

            Wieters potential has obviously not been reached yet. Judging him based on his early stats is just nuts and not fair, esp. considering he plays catcher. Wieters had a stellar college career, hit the ground running in the minors with a historic run, and entered the bigs much faster than anticipated. Upton was a gifted High School draft pick who fast tracked to the majors showing 5 tools. The difference between judging them all against each other is problematic because both Matusz and Wieters play postions that take the longest on average to develop at, catcher and pitcher. Whereas Upton plays the quickest for players to jump into, OF where pure tools translates easily much quicker.

            Feel free to raise other stats that you want, but Wieters supporters could contribute to you how his offensive stats measure very favorably against the best catchers in history thus far.

          • not_brooks 5 years ago

            I completely agree with you on Wieters.

            But I’m not talking about potential. I’m talking about right now. And right now, Upton’s value is monumentally higher than Wieters’. And you can’t argue that.

          • basemonkey 5 years ago

            To use a trade model to measure this: we see trades for established Aces like, say, Halladay or Lee requiring a top pitching prospect, top position prospect, and a solid player or two to round it out. In such a trade, if Matusz didn’t have any MLB service time, he would be able to fill that “elite pitching prospect”, but today he has that MLB service time, with extended periods of legitimate success. To say that Upton would require essentially more than what Halladay or Cliff Lee would demand, it’s just ridiculous. Upton is obviously a spectacular talent with a birght future, but he’s not so established that he trumps the value of elite MLB veterans who have been doing it for a decade.

      • basemonkey 5 years ago

        Upton is a great talent, but Wieters is about the smae age and as much a top tier 1st round talent who is trying to establish himself too. So too is Matusz. Upton has hit the ground running, but he’s not really an “established” player quite yet.

        • not_brooks 5 years ago

          I’m not saying the Orioles should or even would trade Wieters/Matusz for Upton.

          I’m just thinking about what it would take if the two teams were serious about a trade. From the Diamondbacks standpoint, since Upton has massive value and there’s no pressing reason for them to move him, it makes sense for them to ask for the moon. And if they’re going to trade him, they damn well better get it.

          On the other hand, for the Orioles, it makes absolutely no sense to give up the amount/quality of players it would take to get Upton.

          So, when it comes down to it, all of this discussion is essentially pointless.

          • I just think the discussion comes out of everyone’s differing opinions on the value of the players.Personally (full disclosure – I’m an O’s fan) I think Matusz is worth more right now in a trade than Upton based on the second half he had in the AL East. The numbers he put up are straight out of the video games, especially for a 24 (or whatever) year old. Not to mention that he’s a lefty who projects as an ace.I think Upton has huge value, but I think a package of Pie, Scott, Arrieta, Britton, and 1 other would be close to as good as they would get (Britton is likely to be a top-15 prospect next season remember).Additionally, I know it sounds like a cop-out but Wieters has said he’s focusing on defense and game-calling early in his career and the stats support this (some defensive metrics rank him as the best defensive catcher in the AL). Defense is overlooked in catchers, and he has shown the ability to hit even if he hasn’t done it for prolonged periods of time.If I were ranking them (in trade value) I would go:Matusz, Upton, Wieters, Britton or something like that.Also, I would extend it with intriguing comparables:Tulo, Matusz, CarGo, Upton, Ricky Romero, Wieters, Bucholz, Britton

          • basemonkey 5 years ago

            I can agree with that. Matusz is a young possible Ace SP with 1+ yrs of MLB service under his belt. Bailing on him now would be foolish, especially when you look into the game logs and realize that he’s had extended periods of spectacular performance. In the second half of ’10, he ranked among the best SPs in the league.To use a trade model to measure this: we see trades for established Aces like, say, Halladay or Lee requiring a top pitching prospect, top position prospect, and a solid player or two to round it out. In such a trade, if Matusz didn’t have any MLB service time, he would be able to fill that “elite pitching prospect”, but today he has that MLB service time, with extended periods of legitimate success. To say that Upton would require essentially more than what Halladay or Cliff Lee would demand, it’s just ridiculous. Upton is obviously a spectacular talent with a birght future, but he’s not so established that he trumps the value of elite MLB veterans who have been doing it for a decade.

          • Yeah I think that’s a sound analysis of the situation. Not to mention how convoluted it becomes when factoring in team need and positional value.

            Either way, pitching will ALWAYS be more valuable than hitting (especially OF) because there is a plethora of hitters that can play a corner OF spot. How many Cliff Lee’s, Roy Halladay’s, or even Brian Mutusz’s come along?

            I would LOVE to see Upton in an O’s jersey. However if it cost us Jones, Markakis, Matusz, Wieters or Britton I would have to pass. On a slightly unrelated note, I think Britton can be the next Brandon Webb, his sinker is that filthy.

          • basemonkey 5 years ago

            To use a trade model to measure this: we see trades for established Aces like, say, Halladay or Lee requiring a top pitching prospect, top position prospect, and a solid player or two to round it out. In such a trade, if Matusz didn’t have any MLB service time, he would be able to fill that “elite pitching prospect”, but today he has that MLB service time, with extended periods of legitimate success. To say that Upton would require essentially more than what Halladay or Cliff Lee would demand, it’s just ridiculous. Upton is obviously a spectacular talent with a birght future, but he’s not so established that he trumps the value of elite MLB veterans who have been doing it for a decade.

      • basemonkey 5 years ago

        I’d agree. Your talent evaluation sounds pretty iffy to me. Or at least, it sounds like you really love Upton.

    • basemonkey 5 years ago

      There is no way in the world the Os trade Wieters or Matusz.

  9. FishFan03 5 years ago

    come on Marlins, make you move!!!

  10. scatterbrian 5 years ago

    What’s Rosenthal’s source? According to Cots: limited no-trade protection (may block deals to four clubs: Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland)

    • Did you even read the post? That Cot’s info comes straight from Rosenthal. He made a mistake listing Cleveland when it really is Seattle.

      • scatterbrian 5 years ago

        Go here and then try responding again:
        link to mlbcontracts.blogspot.com

      • scatterbrian 5 years ago

        Did you even read the post? Cots wasn’t mentioned. But according to their very reliable site, the four teams are Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland. All I want to know is why is Cots wrong, and where did Rosenthal find this alleged error?

        • I’m just going to assume that Cot’s took their info from Rosenthal’s original post. And now Rosenthal has adjusted his error?

          • scatterbrian 5 years ago

            Pretty sure Cot’s doesn’t base their info on tweets from Ken Rosenthal.

          • So if they had it before him, why was it news when Ken posted it?

          • scatterbrian 5 years ago

            Any more questions?

  11. formerdraftpick 5 years ago

    I hope he gets traded for himself…just like Dickie Noles.

  12. livingpaint 5 years ago

    jack z probably wouldnt bat an eye and trade ackley if the right deal came up.upton is at least proven he can hang at the major league level and plays decent outfield. there was an article talking specifically about that approach that jack z has. personally, i would love to see dustin grow as a mariner and do well here. bottomline is that justin upton updated his no-trade clause to include the mariners cause he doesnt want to come here. its not impossible to make the deal, but i would rather have someone come over that WANTS to play vs. someone who HAS to play cause they were traded. How about a justin upton for bj upton trade…

  13. RoyalBlue 5 years ago

    The Royals should be all over this… Offer Butler, one of our top LHP and a lower LVL prospect and see what happens…

    I no he has a NTC but…

    Mr.Glass pick up the phone and explain to Upton what we are trying to do here in Kansas City…if that dont work tell him he can shop at Walmart for free for the rest of his life…

    • Butler’s still young and one of the more productive bats in the league that nobody knows of.

      But we also have four of our top 5 pitching prospects as LHP. Montgomery and Lamb are too good… But a package like Dywer and/or Duffy, Salvador Perez, Chris Robinson, and Jarrod Dyson/Derrick Robinson and I’d see where to go from there.

      • “I’d see where to go from there.”
        Well at least you can only go up…

        • It’s not much at first, but you’ve got a handful of C to B level prospects with pretty good futures. Really, only Moustakas, Hosmer, Myers, Montgomery, and Lamb are untouchable at the minor level, and Butler and Soria at the ML level.

          We might even be able to cut down on the prospect level if we throw in Greinke. Upton’s probably more secure than any prospect we could get for him from other teams.

          • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

            I’m guessing Towers would rather one major stud than a litanny of B-C level prospects. Sheer numbers DOES NOT make the deal better. I’d start the deal with Greinke myself and see where it goes.

          • I went with quantity over quality because I think Towers would fall for it and I want to take him for a ride. It’s a thing I do. If the guy will make a bad trade, I’ll let him make it and profit off his stupidity.

          • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

            If the Royals are serious they wave Greinke at Arizona and see if the bull charges. They “might” be trying to deal him anyway. I’d rather see Greinke dealt for 1 major player than 5 middling players with limited upside.

            The other thing I read about was waving Greinke at the Angels for Mike Trout. Trout is the real deal.

          • The Angels aren’t trading Trout. Even straight-up for Upton, I don’t think they would. He’s the #1 prospect in baseball.

          • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

            You don’t think the Angels would seriously consider trading Mike Trout for Zack Greinke with the very real possibility that they could extend him?

          • I said they wouldn’t trade him for Upton let alone Grienke who has like half of Upton’s value so yeah, there’s your answer.

          • RoyalBlue 5 years ago

            Greinke has half the value… do you even know anything about baseball? How many teams have a true ace on their staff? How many teams have at least one OF on their team with close to the same production as Justin Upton…

          • “Greinke has half the value… do you even know anything about baseball? How many teams have a true ace on their staff? How many teams have at least one OF on their team with close to the same production as Justin Upton…”

            5 years of Justin Upton for 50$ million is worth more than 2 years of Zack Grienke at 25$ million. Yes I said it, deal with it? Some rabid Royal fans in here.

          • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

            Any team set to acquire Greinke will probably ask for an extention window before completing the deal….potentially making the deal for well more than 2 seasons.

          • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

            Greinke is one season removed from the AL CY Young Award. You can honestly sit there and say that he is 1/2 as valuable to a team than Upton. Considering the market for top end pitching? I’m not sure where you’re crunching the numbers from….but that seems ridiculous.

            So if MLB had a 30 team dispersal draft tomorrow…..Justin Upton would go twice as fast as Greinke?

            He has real value on the mound……go tell the Angels to draft and develop another Greinke. They’ll sooner develop another corner position outfielder.

          • “They’ll sooner develop another corner position outfielder.”

            And one that puts up 8 WAR, 3 .800 OPS seasons over his first 3 years from age 21-23? Alright.

            I’d say that Grienke would take one blue-chip prospect + B prospect. Whereas Justin Upton would take 2 blue-chips. So I’d say Justin Upton has 30% more trade value. There I revised it for you.

          • RoyalBlue 5 years ago

            Its already said what it would take to move Greinke…

          • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

            Depending on the team in question…but I’d say you’re wrong….THAT is how much ace level pitching is valued……not by what fangraphs states.

          • RoyalBlue 5 years ago

            Its been stated by Dayton Moore not our fans…

          • mlbscout6 5 years ago

            Grienke has half of Upton’s value??? LOL. Please tell me that you are a Diamondback fan, as this is the only way to explain this comment with any sense of rationality.

          • I think Zack would veto an LA trade for the same reason he doesn’t want to go to the Yankees, he’d panic. His GAD makes him nervous once there’s any major spotlight on him and LA’s one of the biggest cities and markets in the country.

          • Guest 5 years ago

            LOL.. LA media.

          • Well, it’s not LA. It’s Orange County

          • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

            The Royals also whould move Soria to the rotation or trade him. What a waste.

          • RoyalBlue 5 years ago

            Move one of the best closer in baseball to the rotation… The Royals have tons of SP getting ready to come up…

          • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

            Ok. I’m not the first person to suggest this scenario……people in baseball and even the Royals have suggested this. Soria is going to get expensive in the closers role, but would be cheap as a starter…which he was before the Royals picked him in the Rule V Draft. They are a 85-90 loss team for a atleast one more season. They also don’t have that many valuable chips in a deal. I believe the Royals DID deal him to the Yankees for Montero…but he rejected the trade.

            The starting pitching isn’t THERE yet. The idea that everyone who is stellar in the minors will see big league success is optimistic to say the least.

            I believe Soria also picks up more no-trade teams this season.

            He’d be a great gamble in the rotation. They could always send him back to the pen.

            Telling me to “quit posting” is a little juvenile don’t ya think? It’s not like a suggested something that hasn’t been greatly discussed by baseball people.

          • It’s not happening. He’s a closer now. Why would he straight to stretch him out and try him in the rotation NOW after all this time? Just let him be an elite closer. Yes, a crappy team doesn’t need one – but then they should just trade him.

          • RoyalBlue 5 years ago

            This team is getting ready to turn the corner so there is no need to move him…

          • Turn the corner how? They certainly aren’t competing in the next 2 years. 3? Sure. So those club options will come in handy i guess.

          • RoyalBlue 5 years ago

            2013 they will be competing… the ALC is not that strong…

          • Okay.. that’s what I said.

          • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

            When the Royals DO turn the corner….Soria will be expensive….and they’ll have less options if they want to move him. His value is peaking right now.

          • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

            The reason I’ve read is that he would be a bargain in the rotation, but will be getting pricey as a reliever.

          • RoyalBlue 5 years ago

            I edited that’ I am sorry I said that… I know all of the prospects are not going to see success but there is no way I move Soria to the rotation…

          • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

            I appreciate the edit. I’m just spitballing ideas for the Royals. Right now the only players they really have that might bring back A level prospects are Greinke and Soria. So many people seem to think that Butler plus a minor leaguer will get a deal done.

            I’m not saying they deal Greinke to Arizona….I’m just saying Upton…..Trout…those are what the Royals should be aiming for in return for Greinke…instead of the boatload of average prospects that so any suggest. The Royals aren’t trying to field a killer AAA team….they need impact up the middle….

          • “I went with quantity over quality because I think Towers would fall for it ”

            Are you kidding? Every other team in the majors could beat a package with a bunch of B-C prospects in it. Why would Towers do that? Especially when KC is on Upton’s NTC. Also, I have no idea why Arizona would want to pay 26$ million to Grienke the next 2 years when they aren’t competing. No offense, but you’re offering garbage for one of the top 10 most valued players in the game. Start with Moustakas, Hosmer or Montgomery and try again. Also, I know KC has the best farm system in baseball right now but the idea that you have 7-8 untouchables on your team is kind of ridiculous.

          • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

            Greinke has stated that he would like to play in the NL so he can bat. There’s also a very real chance that Arizona could extend him. I’m not saying that Dayton Moore does this deal…..but I do think that this type of talent is what Towers is going to want in return for Upton. Not the ridiculous 5 middling players most fans seem to think they can hobble together to make a deal happen.

            Moore needs to score a Jutin Upton or a Mike Trout for Greinke. One player with impact potential

          • “Greinke has stated that he would like to play in the NL so he can bat.”
            Last time I checked, Grienke doesn’t decide when or where he gets traded.

            “There’s also a very real chance that Arizona could extend him.”
            Yeah the same team that traded Dan Haren for salary relief; plus why would Grienke agree to an extension when he could just get paid 26$ million for the next 2 years and then wait for a huge payday?

            “I’m not saying that Dayton Moore does this deal…..but I do think that this type of talent is what Towers is going to want in return for Upton. Not the ridiculous 5 middling players most fans seem to think they can hobble together to make a deal happen.”
            I still don’t understand why Towers wants an expensive player for the next 2 years when the Diamondbacks ARE NOT COMPETING during that time. If Boston offers Kelly, Iglesias and Bard – why would Towers take Grienke over that? He wants to rebuild the farm system last time I checked.

            “Moore needs to score a Jutin Upton or a Mike Trout for Greinke. One player with impact potential”
            Moore will never score that for Zack Grienke. Sorry. Go read the Zack Grienke MLBTR threads to see what kind of value he will get back in a trade. Think one blue-chip prospect + a B.

          • mlbscout6 5 years ago

            “last time I checked Grienke doesn’t decide when or where he gets traded.”
            .
            His NTC allows him to block trades to HALF of the teams in baseball.

            Good post. Way to educate the masses.

          • bustersposey 5 years ago

            trout’s been compared to mickey friggin mantle. i can’t imagine him going anywhere for anyone.

          • Yeah, so was Jordan Schafer….

          • bustersposey 5 years ago

            maybe by you. he was the #25 prospect pre- ’08 according to b.a. trout will be #1.

            schafer’s best minor league season as a 20yo between low and hi a: 312/374/513 23sb 56bb 126k
            trout’s 2010 season as an 18yo between low and hi a: 341/428/490 56sb 73bb 85k. other than the fact that they’re both of’s, they really arent comparable.

          • RoyalBlue 5 years ago

            Royals have no untouchable at ML LVL…

    • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

      I’m not sure even Mr. Glass knows what they are doing in KC. It’d be better for all concerned if David Glass left the phone calls to Dayton Moore. I’m not sure why Arizona would want Billy Butler.

      • They need a first baseman I believe since they moved Brandon Allen to LF after finding out he’s not that good. That’s why I said Robinson, maybe Kila. With Butler and Hosmer, they’re expendable.

        • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

          I just don’t think you’re talking the same ballpark as far as Arizona’s asking price.

        • jdub220 5 years ago

          Allen was moved to LF so he could get some MLB playing time. He’ll probably be moved back to first next year now that LaRoche is gone.

      • RoyalBlue 5 years ago

        I agree about Mr.Glass but why wouldnt Arizona want Butler… are you telling me Butler is not better than what you have now…

        • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

          Nothing wrong with Butler…he’s just whathe is…..a DHish looking AL player with not much room for growth. I think Arizona is going to want some higher ceiling talent is all.

          • RoyalBlue 5 years ago

            no room for growth lol… he is getting better and better at 1B every season plus the guy is going to hit alot more HR’s… no room for growth are you kidding me?

          • Red_Line_9 5 years ago

            I’m not saying that Butler isn’t a great player….he just doesn’t get Upton in a deal.

          • I want Butler kept because he’s the best guy for the DH job with his bat. He’s one of the better first baseman around, regularly hits 40+ doubles, .300 hitter, and quiet frankly, the ONLY hitter in KC right now with any talent. Hosmer will spell him at first, but we need that bat.

          • RoyalBlue 5 years ago

            I would rather move Butler than Greinke any day of the week…I dont care if he is the only hitter we have right now if we can move him for OF help which by the way we have none in the FS; then I say we move him…you can always find a DH…

          • RoyalBlue 5 years ago

            It’s not just Butler… Az would also be getting one of our top Left handers and another lower lvl prospect…

  14. Rosenthal was wrong? I’m shocked. That dude is usually all over things, as long as someone else had the rumor 30 minutes before him.

    • To his credit, he broke the Cliff Lee to Seattle trade. I think he’s a lot better than some of the others (cough Jon Heyman cough)

  15. moonraker45 5 years ago

    Mariners are on my on trade clause as well.

  16. atrain17 5 years ago

    Yes, Justin Upton is only 23 but you can’t forget….. he’s already been in the league for 4 years. The standard timetable to judge a player on is 1500-2000 at bats, regardless of their age. Once you’ve hit your ceiling, you’ve hit your ceiling. Some hit it at 26, some at 30. He happened to hit his at 23. He has 1500 at bats under his belt, it’s pretty safe to say that he’s going to be a .280, 25HR, 90RBI guy for the rest of his career (give or take great and struggling seasons.) He’ll just have much longer to produce because he IS so young. He’s definitely good, if not great. But I have yet to see baseball scripture that says, you’ll be better at 28 than you will at 23. At 1500 at bats, he’s most likely shown who he is.

    DON’T BELIEVE ME? FINE!!! Willy Mays was just 24 when he saw 1500 AB’s. By that time he was already a cumulative .309 hitter. He ended as a career at .302. IN FACT, Willy Mays only has ONE season where he put up better HR totals and RBI’s after 1500 AB’s. And his best batting average season was the season before….. seeing only 1000 AB’s.

    Hank Aaron was just 23 when he saw 2000 AB’s. That year, he won the MVP. After that season he only had one season with a higher batting average, one season with more HR’s, and never hit more RBI’s than that year.

    Griffey’s BA peaked at 21, A-Rod’s peaked at 20 (although they both put up monster numbers in their mid-20’s….. A-Rod’s due to steroids but that’s another topic altogether.) Heck, by 2000 at bats, Babe Ruth had already had a 59 HR season.

    I’m just sayin, time for Upton to produce, not regress. No way I trade half the farm for him but kudos to Towers for being on the verge of pulling off a HEIST!!!! And Kudos for Justin Upton for not making that victim the Mariners.

    • I was going to point out how ridiculous you sound when you say that he peaked at age 22. But then I kept reading and noticed you used BATTING AVERAGE to judge players and decided not to waste the time posting a proper response.

      • I suppose he is going to use the number of wins the D backs had too??

      • I suppose he is going to use the number of wins the D backs had too??

        • atrain17 5 years ago

          Noooooo, those were just EXAMPLES. I was already getting a little lengthy and didn’t want to go into it much further. But I would like to hear your retort as a lot of your posts above were biased and uneducated. Should be good for a laugh at the very least. I will argue six ways from Sunday how Justin Upton will never be the superstar that you claim he will be. He’s a good player but….. Sorry, looks like your going to have to take down the posters.

          • “uneducated”
            Oh the sweet sweet irony.

            “six ways”
            You’ve tried one way. Batting average, which is a near-meaningless stat. Yes, Ken Griffey Jr’s batting average peaked when he was 20. It’s a damn shame that he had SEVEN better years after his age-20 one. You forgot to mention that part, which coincidentally totally destroys your argument. I could do the same thing for A-Rod (best season was 2007 not 1996), Mays (put up .1042 OPS when he was 34) and Aaron (put up a .1045 OPS when he was 39 years old) if you want… The fact remains that NONE of those players peaked early in their career unless you consider batting average and to be honest – other than Joe Morgan and YOU, who does? So, if your point was to say that Justin Upton’s batting average will never exceed .300 again but that he’ll improve all the meaningful stats? Then congrats, you’ve proven my point for me. Justin Upton like A-Rod, Mays, Aaron and Griffey – will only get better.

            P.S. Not that I care but “Hank Aaron – after that season he only had one season with a higher batting average” is factually incorrect; he won the MVP in 1957 when he posted a .322 batting average. He had SEVEN seasons with a better BA than that. So you lose at your own crappy batting average argument, too. Six ways, you lose.

          • atrain17 5 years ago

            Sigh….. in 1956, he had a .328 batting average. In 1959 he had a .355 batting average. His batting average was never higher than .327 save for those two years. When he was 23 he had his highest RBI production of his career and second highest HR totals. That’s the point I was trying to make and that’s exactly what I said so, no….. I don’t lose.

            As for everything else, I’m not going to go back and forth with you. It’s absolutely impossible to argue with someone who CLEARLY has as much bias as you do. Maybe uneducated was the wrong word…. perhaps immature is a better adjective (Crappy? Really?).

            I’m not saying Upton has peaked….. re-read my posts. I’m saying no one should expect production close to any of those mentioned guys. Upton will NEVER have a season like Pujols does consistantly. He may have a long and prolific career but first he has to show he can make it through a entire season. My whole point….. By the time you reach 1500-2000 AB’s, people have a pretty good idea of who you are.

          • He won the MVP in 1957, the year he batted .322. You can argue semantics about your poorly-worded sentences all you want. Your original post is still factually incorrect. Someone who still uses batting average and RBI’s as a metric of judging anything is a) either stuck in a time warp or b) incredibly naive. Nobody cares about batting average anymore, sorry. To wrap an entire argument around it is a hilarious waste of time. Again, you can think all you want that Griffey’s age 20 season was his best. But the NUMBERS say that you are wrong since he had 6 better seasons. If that makes me immature, I apologize but I don’t want to grow up, be old and use dinosaur stats to judge players on. I eagerly await your next post where you tell me that Felix Hernandez didn’t deserve the CY Young because he only had 13 wins.

          • moonraker45 5 years ago

            why are you using batting average and rbi totals to argue your points??

            Hullo 1

            atrain17 -1

          • Because Joe Morgan got fired from ESPN and he’s trying to fill the void.

          • atrain17 5 years ago

            Nope, not using batting average and RBI totals as a way to judge players….. Never did. Also, never said Griffey has his best year at age 20….. never. The average, HR totals, and RBi totals were examples (didn’t we already go over this?) as to my actual point of which was that I said a player is generally considered as having reached his potential after 1500-2000 at bats. I also said that, judging by this rule, Upton has likely come close to his ceiling.

            If you’re going to misconstrue my words, at least make it funny like the ‘crappy’ comment. Also, no need to get so hostile….. we’re just having a conversation buddy. The Felix Hernandez and Joe Morgan comments were annoying and did not pertain to this conversation whatsoever. If you’re going to act like a dooshe then I’m done debating with you. But if you want to have an actual discussion then we can do that. I’m trying to share some insight…. you can agree or disagree and tell me why I may be missing, but be mature about it. If you can’t do that then go converse with someone like moonraker45.

    • I keep coming back to this when I begin to think that J-Up is overrated. Every time I read it I no longer feel that it’s the case. This is elite company.

      “Baseball history has seen just 15 hitters post an OPS above .800 in 400-plus plate appearances at the age of 20. One of those 15 is Upton and the others are Mickey Mantle, Alex Rodriguez, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Jimmie Foxx, Frank Robinson, Ty Cobb, Ken Griffey Jr., Mel Ott, Al Kaline, Orlando Cepeda, Rogers Hornsby, Vada Pinson, and Tony Conigliaro.”

      • atrain17 5 years ago

        Hey, I never said he wasn’t good….. on the contrary, I think Upton is GREAT!!! I would love to have him playing for my team. The only point I’m trying to make is that just cause he’s 23 doesn’t mean he’s going to be a superstar. If you read my posts I actually want to give him another year to see what he can do but I think he’s very close to his ceiling.

        Being so young he could hit a lot of HR’s and drive in a lot of runs for a looooong time. He will have some amazing career numbers. But if Upton fans are expecting the next Pujols, they will have to look elsewhere. He will be a .285, 25-30HR, 90-100RBI guy for the next 20 years. That adds up to a GREAT player with some great numbers if he can stay healthy. That’s my only point I’m trying to make regarding upton.

      • baseball33 5 years ago

        And none of them strike out as much as upton

        • Oh no, Upton has a minor flaw in his game that none of those hall of fame players have! What a bust he will become!

        • baseball33 5 years ago

          Great hitters don’t strike out as much as uptown

          • baseball33 5 years ago

            Except for maybe one but I’m not going to tell you who he was. And I still don’t even think he struck out as much as uptown.

          • His name is Upton. Why do you keep putting a W in there?

  17. jwredsox 5 years ago

    My opinion on the J-Up overrated talk is if he can cut down on his strikeouts Upton becomes a superstar. If not, ’09 may end up being his ceiling.

    • atrain17 5 years ago

      Thank you!!!! That’s a great comment! If he can cut down on his strikeouts, yes, he’ll be an amazing player. I think superstar is a bit high but if he’s cutting down on his K’s and a fair chunk of those are base hits, it’s possible. However, not too many players cut their K’s drastically after 2000 AB’s under their belt so this next year is definitely going to be an important one for Upton.

      • atrain17 5 years ago

        As mentioned by someone earlier….. usually a high K rate at such an early age can lead to problems early on and generally, those players are prone to decline more quickly. But, if he can cut back, he can be real special. Also, if my aunt had testicles, she’d be my uncle.

  18. gringo20 5 years ago

    You are now aware that Justin Upton, who is heralded for his defense in the outfield, was drafted as a shortstop out of high school. He then transitioned into right field while playing well and hitting well in the major leagues. But he’s overrated so what am I saying. Everyone on this site is so high on their draft picks that they can’t pull their heads out long enough to see a player who has already had to gone through tons of adversity, the same adversity (changing positions, taking a step up in talent level they’ll be facing etc.) that these MLBTR “scouts” will be using as excuses for their untradeable prospects. Here’s one more nugget on his regression, the team this year absolutely had the soul sucked out of it. If you’ve ever played baseball one of the worst feelings is winning a game for 7+ innings, just to have it throw away before you can retire the last six outs. Add in the fact that they had the equivalent of Wade Phillips coaching them and how can you not expect regression?

  19. Encarnacion's Parrot 5 years ago

    While they seem to have got the 4 teams correct now, I still don’t see the Mariners as suitors. They played like ass last season and trading away a ton of young cheap talent for one player won’t change that, plus I can’t see them trading Ackley.

  20. Encarnacion's Parrot 5 years ago

    While they seem to have got the 4 teams correct now, I still don’t see the Mariners as suitors. They played like ass last season and trading away a ton of young cheap talent for one player won’t change that, plus I can’t see them trading Ackley.

  21. Enough with these rumors, he’s not getting traded. What happened to the AGonz to the RedSox for Buchholz and Ellsbury rumors?

    • WrigleyTerror37 5 years ago

      Trust me both of those rumors you mentioned are getting anoying!!! I rather talk about somthing else… like the Cubs 1B job, what the O’s are going to do this off season, Possable next years top rookies Or pirets baseball!!!

    • WrigleyTerror37 5 years ago

      Trust me both of those rumors you mentioned are getting anoying!!! I rather talk about somthing else… like the Cubs 1B job, what the O’s are going to do this off season, Possable next years top rookies Or pirets baseball!!!

  22. Glove Affair 5 years ago

    M’s on the no-trade list? Off the list? Wake me when they figure it out.

  23. RoyalBlue 5 years ago

    no need to make an argument…

  24. atrain17 5 years ago

    He’s running out of time to reach his potential. According to scouts and GM’s, 1500-2000 AB’s and you’ve reached your potential. He’s already had 1500 and regressed this year.

  25. Increasing your K’s every big-league season isn’t a good sign of progress, in my opinion. He plays excellent defense and all, but I just don’t see him becoming that elite hitter everyone’s expecting.

  26. atrain17 5 years ago

    Oh yeah, good point…. Cause Upton has been just standing around the last few years doing nothing?

    Who would you rather have helping you with your development, minor league coaches or the best of the best up here in the MLB?

  27. jdub220 5 years ago

    But Seattle is still awesome.

  28. basemonkey 5 years ago

    I agree that it can be overblown, but 100+ Ks is not insignificant. It can be a signal of future progress. High K guys can decline in a hurry and disappear statistically very suddenly. That said, Upton’s talent is obvious, but he does need to improve that aspect of his game. There’s a clear relationship with his contact rates, walk rate, and AVG with his strikeouts. Then again, he’s very very very young and he has a lot of time to improve, which might make him into a Torii Hunter-esque player, which would be a pretty good result if you ask me. If he continues to have 130-150 K rates until he’s 27, it will be very hard to imagine him being able to improve in other categories simultaneously.

  29. atrain17 5 years ago

    Whoops, accidently hit like instead of reply….. ANYWHOO, so you’re saying that because he hasn’t had any time to develop with inferior coaching he get’s more than the alotted 1500-2000 AB’s to determine his true value? Am I understanding you correctly? I can understand you’re line of thinking but that simply isn’t so. He skipped all of that development because it was determined that he didn’t NEED the development.

    EXAMPLE: John Olerud never had a DAY of minors development, yet by the time he was on his 1500th at bat, he was hitting .405 and ended the season with a .363, .473, .599 line, which were coincidently the highest marks of his career…. every single one of them. Oh, and he was only 24. That year was the best of his career and he regressed slightly after while still being an extremely effective and productive hitter.

    Look, I’m not attacking Justin Upton any. It’s fine to be excited and unrealistic about your favorite players. I’m just saying, if you want to have a grown-up discussion then you have to be a little realistic. And if you’re being a little realistic then you realistically can’t expect him to get much better because his ceiling has likely been reached….. or is close to it. He’s still a great player though, don’t get me wrong.

  30. atrain17 5 years ago

    Okay….. my point is, when promoted to the show, Upton had progressed past needing further development in the minors. Hence, the 1500 – 2000 AB’s rule begins for him just as it does for every player when they reach MLB…. no exceptions.

    However, neither of us are scouts. We both have our opinions and while yours is a bit more optimistic, only time will tell. In the meantime, please don’t feel like I’m rooting against Upton just to prove a point. I like him a lot and was pulling for AZ not to take him in the draft so the M’s could snatch him up. You know where I stand and vice-versa.

  31. boy9988 5 years ago

    Then stop calling him a future Superstar. Griffey Jr was a superstar. And his K rate was far lower in the beginning of his career. Most young hitters will learn to cut down their Ks in the first few years of development. Those that don’t usually will maintain a fairly high level through out their career. This statement is not a law mind you, but a good guideline. More so however, is that Upton have been in the big show for three years and his K rates have progressively gotten worse each year.

    Upton, a great talent mind you and even now at this stage is a great ML player, he does however have some drawbacks in his game that may prevent him from becoming the superstar that ARI is demanding they be paid for. That’s all I’m saying.

  32. basemonkey 5 years ago

    Why are some people inclined to not take it that seriously is beyond me. If we were talking about a beautiful sports car that performs really well with great speed, a high strikeout rate is akin to bad mileage. It’s potentially a fundamental point to owning this car. Most batters who K as much as he does generally reach 30-40 HRs (if not more) to offset such a liability. He’s obviously not there yet. Calling it a liability right now is not a slight against Upton. It’s just calling a spade a spade. I am not saying that he won’t get there (though he might not), but just because he’s young, one shouldn’t assume the myth of linear progression and that he is a lock to reach that level. Again, granted, he has a better chance than most players his age, but he isn’t rthe second coming of Ken Griffey Jr, who provided consistent (and better) production from a younger age and kept his Ks under 100.

  33. basemonkey 5 years ago

    Ok. I will agree that I don’t consider it a “red flag.” Not at all. If he was offered to my team today I’d take it without hesitation.

    I only mention it because, some posters have suggested that he’s a “Best Ever” type of young player. Or, at least, that’s what I deduce from the offers of Matusz (a young potential Ace SP with MLB experience and periods of marked success) and Wieters (a promising young catcher with huge offensive potential who is still just getting established in the majors) included in a package. I would argue that you wouldn’t get such a package for Halladays and Cliff Lees. It’s not that I consider Wieters and Matusz to be finished products in their own right. It’s just that the going rate for topline Aces, which is the highest trade premium, is going to be an elite pitching prospect, top position prospect, and some solid pieces to round it out. And, typically none of the centerpieces of such a deal has any MLB experience. Here Matusz and Wieters have have been steadily making progress in the majors (e.g. among other strings of starts, Matusz’ last 3 months of ’10, Wieters’ hot streaks of opposite field power, etc..). They are not there yet by any means, and, if one wants to ask, I would agree that Upton is obviously further along than either. Though to suggest that he will so far ahead of both in the longrun, enough to justify such a package deal, is just delusional. So, as great a promising young player that Upton obviously is, I only point out the Ks to say that he’s not a finished product himself. I mention Griffey Jr. and the like to point out that there have been historical precedents of players as young (or younger) who have performed as well, or better, in the K dept (e.g. If you take walks into account, one of those guys plays now for the Braves). So we shouldn’t let him off the hook just because he’s so young. Thus, since he’s not a finished product, it doesn’t make sense that he would command more than what established premier players who play higher premium positions would command. Does it?

  34. basemonkey 5 years ago

    I hear what you’re saying.Right now, in a hypothetical universe where we can play out a bunch of weird baseball scenarios, it just doesn’t seem to make much sense to me that a team would/could trade a package around Roy Halladay to receive Justin Upton, does it? Isn’t that what it means for Upton to have more trade value? Wouldn’t it be the other way around? If your team wanted Halladay, isn’t Upton the guy who gets packaged up to bring a multiple Cy Young player to town? Upton might one day be an MVP type, but he isn’t there yet, and so there’s inherent risk. You can’t regard him as if he’s already won those accomplishments yet. He’s not even yet established himself as a big leaguer really, and, he might never get there for whatever reason, none of which might be his own fault or lack of talent.

    You’re entitled to see a lot of value in Upton. He certainly is. And, he would really bring down the amount of value that gets thrown into such a hypothetical deal because so, but I just don’t see him that way (yet).

  35. jdub220 5 years ago

    John Olerud was also 25 during that year. And it was his 4th full season, while Upton has had only three.

  36. blackcourt, believe me, i love the rumors, but to keep nit-picking at it, is a bit excessive, if there were rumors, say like, “Dodgers are pushing hard for Upton” then i’d be fine, but does it really matter who’s on Upton’s no trade list?

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