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Extension Candidate: Michael Bourn

By Mike Axisa | January 21, 2012 at 9:23pm CDT

Icon_13642453The Astros have gone into full rebuilding mode over the last few seasons, and one of the beneficiaries of their retooling has been the Braves. They acquired leadoff man and center fielder Michael Bourn at last year's trade deadline for a package of four young players, though he was unable to help them get to the postseason. As an arbitration-eligible player, Atlanta retained his rights for 2012.

The 29-year-old Bourn and the Braves settled on a one-year deal worth $6.845MM earlier this week, avoiding an arbitration hearing during his final year of eligibility. He's scheduled to hit the open market after the season, and will represent the one legitimate center field/leadoff hitter type in the free agent class. Bourn won't get Jose Reyes or Carl Crawford money, but he's poised to land a sizeable multiyear guarantee with another strong effort this coming season.

Though he hit just .278/.321/.352 in 249 trips to the plate with the Braves following the trade, Bourn had his best offensive season in 2011. He hit .294/.349/.386 overall and stole 61 bases, the most in all of baseball and for the third straight year, the most in the National League. His defense is highly regarded as well, with a +22.9 UZR over the last three seasons. In terms of wins above replacement, Bourn has been worth between 4.2 and 4.9 wins in each of the last three years. His 13.8 WAR since the start of 2009 is the eighth most among all outfielders.

Juan Pierre's five-year, $44MM contract with the Dodgers gives us an idea of what a high-end center field/leadoff hitter type can get on the open market. He hit .298/.343/.383 with eight homers and 160 steals in the three years leading up to his free agency (age 26-28 seasons), while Bourn has hit .283/.348/.373 with seven homers and 174 steals in the previous three seasons (also age 26-28 seasons). Pierre got caught stealing more often (61 to 38), but Bourn struck out more (389 to 118). Pierre's defense was also a notch below Bourn's (+8.9 UZR from '04-'06).

It's worth noting that Bourn is a Scott Boras client, and earlier this month we heard that the two sides had not yet begun discussions about an extension. It's been five years since Pierre signed his contract with the Dodgers, and adjusting up a bit for inflation indicates that five-year, $50MM extension would make sense for both Bourn and the Braves. Atlanta lacks a long-term center field solution in their farm system, but luckily they already have one of the game's best players at the position in the prime of his career at the big league level. Whether they try to keep him beyond this season is another matter.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

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2012 Extension Candidates Atlanta Braves Michael Bourn

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99 Comments

  1. ChipsHips

    13 years ago

    Word. I’d be alright with Bourn in center for a few more years.  I don’t know about five though. 4/42 get it done?

    Reply
    • Colin Christopher

      13 years ago

      At first glance, I agreed with you, but I think five years would be fine. 2012 will be his age-29 season, meaning that a five-year contract would end after his age-33 season. That’s not bad, and it’s not getting into the years when he should be seriously declining yet. If they can get him for $50M over five, Wren should go for it.

      Reply
      • Matt Busche

        13 years ago

        I think 5/50 is a great deal for the Braves. I think Bourn will get offered more than that in free agency though. (Scott Boras at least believes that)

        Reply
        • Snoochies8

          13 years ago

          scott boras would compare him to rickey henderson….

          Reply
          • R.D.

            13 years ago

            *scott boras WILL compare him to rickey henderson….

            Reply
    • jamesa-2

      13 years ago

      If 4/42 gets it done, it’s because Bourn decided that Atlanta is where he wants to be, period, and told Boras to take a hike.

      Reply
  2. Ryan

    13 years ago

    The Phillies won the 2008 World Series, so much of what I am about to bring up is moot.

    But……if that did not happen, trading away Michael Bourn for Brad Lidge, looking at Lidge’s entire time (08-11) with the Phillies, versus what Bourn has done since then…..that would have been one horrible, terrible, down right ugly trade for the Phils.

    Reply
    • KJ4realz

      13 years ago

      The Phillies also wouldn’t have had either Vic or Werth starting in the OF then either. More likely scenario would have had Bourn as the 4th OF so he never would have showcased his value as he had in Houston. Much more to the trade than just Bourn for Lidge.

      Reply
      • Ryan

        13 years ago

        Actually, more than likely they would have never signed Ibanez, which would have been a good thing. 

        And when you say that there was much more to that trade, you are right, I stand corrected. Eric Bruntlett. Clearly the Phils won that one.

        Reply
      • DerekC

        13 years ago

        Could you imagine a team with Victorino, Bourn, and Rollins (when he was reliable)? The speed on that team would be unbelievable. 

        Reply
  3. Thomas Cassidy

    13 years ago

    Can’t go too many years with him, speed is his main quality and that’s always the first to go. A 4/40 should get it done.

    Reply
    • FrankTheFunkasaurusRex

      13 years ago

      No, fast players age better than sluggers

      Reply
      • Thomas Cassidy

        13 years ago

        Not true at all. Fast players always age faster than sluggers. I can’t name any fast players that have a productive careers as older players, but I can name plenty of sluggers who can.

        Reply
        • MetsMagic

          13 years ago

          There’s been studies on this, so go read one of them before you use a simple litmus test to change all of baseball. 

          Reply
        • toptimrubies

          13 years ago

          Have you never heard of Rickey Henderson?

          Reply
          • TimotheusATL

            13 years ago

            So, one. Crisis averted.

            Reply
            • toptimrubies

              13 years ago

              Lou Brock, Tim Raines, Joe Morgan, Kenny Lofton, Ty Cobb, Ozzie Smith, Roberto Alomar, Paul Molitor.  Any better?

              Reply
              • TimotheusATL

                13 years ago

                I know where you’re going with your argument but you named a slew of HOFers in there. Bear in mind that bourn’s listed comparable is, well, Juan Pierre

                Reply
                • jimboslice9

                  13 years ago

                  And what’s the one tool Pierre has consistently had no matter his age?  Speed.

                  Reply
        • notsureifsrs

          13 years ago

          “As players age,” James relayed in an e-mail, “their hitting skills decline and their speed decreases, which creates a kind of pincer movement that ultimately snaps careers. The number one thing that drives players out of the game is the loss of hitting skill, but the number two thing is the loss of speed.

          “As players slow down they become less able to play the key defensive positions — center, right, shortstop — and get pushed toward the positions for slower players, which are also the positions for big hitters. THE thing that drives them out of the game is not the loss in hitting ability in absolute terms. There are dozens of 37-year-old first basemen who could still hit enough to play — if they could play the outfield. When their speed drops below a certain level, they’re no longer able to play the outfield at a decent level, no longer able to hit enough to be a cleanup hitter, and they’re gone.

          advantage: speedy players

          Reply
          • TimotheusATL

            13 years ago

            It actually kinda amazes me that the DH never seems to be used to prolong the career of a speedy high-obp guy, Johnny Damon notwithstanding. Everyone wants their DH to hit like a corner infielder even though stats indicate they very rarely do

            Reply
            • FrankTheFunkasaurusRex

              13 years ago

              that’s because old speedy players can still play defense, old sluggers can barely handle 1B. On bat alone, sluggers > burners, but overall, burners outlast sluggers in many cases.

              Reply
        • Matt Busche

          13 years ago

          Coco Crisp and Ichiro are both older and still fast. Ichiro has lost a step, but he still stole 40 bases last year.

          Reply
        • Josh Ezell

          13 years ago

          Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock, Billy Hamilton, Tim Raines, Honus Wagner, Joe Morgan, Kenny Lofton, Ozzie Smith, Juan Pierre, Marquis Grissom, Delino Deshields, Ichiro, Steve Sax, Barry Larkin, etc…

          Reply
        • jamesa-2

          13 years ago

          Ozzie Smith
          Ichiro
          Ricky
          Dunston
          Eric Davis
          Coco Crisp
          Juan Pierre

          I could go on. All of these players continued or extended careers largely due to their fleet-footedness. The only thing a burner needs to do to stay in the game is play average defense and continue to hit north of .270.

          Slower sluggers only extend their careers if/when they are able to move to 1B/DH. Eventually they get supplanted at 1b too when their range and hands don’t stack up against some other masher that is a natural 1B.

          Reply
    • Lunchbox45

      13 years ago

      you seldom say anything correct 

      Reply
  4. coreybishop

    13 years ago

    5/50? Pull the trigger Wren!

    Reply
  5. jklein

    13 years ago

    I really hope the Braves give him an extension of 3-4 years.

    Reply
  6. NYBravosFan10

    13 years ago

    unless the braves offer about 20 mil a year, there’s no way Boras lets this guy miss free agency

    Reply
    • Josh Ezell

      13 years ago

      False

      Reply
      • Matt Busche

        13 years ago

        can you explain why this is false? Unless the Braves make an insane offer I don’t see how Boras doesn’t let him play out the free agent market.

        Reply
        • mic

          13 years ago

          The “false” part is the $20mil a year!

          Reply
          • NYBravosFan10

            13 years ago

            you know who scott boras is right?

            Reply
            • nictonjr

              13 years ago

              Jered Weaver  5/85 with Scott Boras as his agent.  Extensions get done.  Boras works for Bourn.  If Bourn wants to get a deal done, a deal will get done.  BUT, most guys who hire Boras do it for a reason.  They’re looking for top dollar…

              Reply
              • DerekC

                13 years ago

                Jeff Weaver has stolen 60 SB in a season? C’mon, man! I understand it’s Scott Boras, but please give a comparable and not some never-was pitcher that never did anything but cheer on his little bro to success.

                This article considers top dollar returns. I’m not saying 5/50 will get it done, but somewhere in that vicinity. Bourn is not Carl Crawford…and even if they were similar, Crawford’s play in BOS would almost be a negative comp to Bourn.

                Reply
                • sam_lammert

                  13 years ago

                  i think he ment jered

                  Reply
                  • DerekC

                    13 years ago

                    Makes more sense, but still is irrelevant. Jered grew up, went to school, etc near LAA. That’s as hometown as it gets. ATL isn’t naive enough to think that relationship we build on for 1.5 years we’ll be worth the $10M-$15M he might be able to get on the open market by taking a “hometown discount”. I hate when cheap clubs try hide behind this, expecting it to have much value past a chuckle during negotiations. 

                    With the type of headlines and speed that Weaver’s extension was done, that was an obvious exception, one that I can’t see having an relation to Bourn’s case. He’s not from ATL (TX), he didn’t go to school here, and his wife isn’t from here. But, I heard he likes his Chick-fil-a…

                    Reply
                    • sam_lammert

                      13 years ago

                      all he is saying is his agent is boris and they worked out an extension easily, wheras you’re sayin it will be impossible for an easy one

                      Reply
        • DerekC

          13 years ago

          He’d get $20M per if he were signed on a 1-year deal, maybe. I don’t even see that happening. He’s not putting up Ellsbury 2011 numbers (HR plus SB plus GG-caliber defense). At most I could see $15M per for 4 seasons, but I’d think Boras would want a 5th-guaranteed year…and he’s not getting $15M AAV for 5 years. I’d think more like $12.5M for 5 years…and that’s a significant raise from Juan Pierre’s deal years ago with CHW.

          Reply
    • DerekC

      13 years ago

      Did the fall off the turnip truck hurt? There’ll be OF depth in the free agent in 2013. If we can’t re-sign him, then Victorino or BJ Upton would suffice, though I’d prefer Bourn.

      Reply
  7. Ryan The Braves Fan For Life

    13 years ago

    He’s a a very underrated player!
    He’s a BEAST!

    Reply
  8. Disgustedfan

    13 years ago

    This guy can get you 50-60 steals, plays gold glove defense and is a disruptive force at the top of the lineup. Braves would be foolish to not resign him

    Reply
  9. Timothy J. Franklin Williams

    13 years ago

    Baby he was Bourn to Run.

    Reply
    • Disgustedfan

      13 years ago

      Okay that phrase was funny the first 1000 times I heard it.

      Reply
      • tribe1045

        13 years ago

        Sounds like you’ve been talking to too many people about Michael Bourn, then. He’s not all that interesting.

        Reply
  10. guest_54

    13 years ago

    Since we’re throwing around silly comments involving Bourn, I’ll join in:

    Boras’ Bourn Ultimatum – “Go to free agency or fire me!”

    Reply
  11. Josh Ezell

    13 years ago

    I’d extend him and work on getting some power at the corners. The free agent market for OF next year is long. He’s perfect leading off for a team that otherwise has very little speed. He was a major upgrade in center. Wren fixed the leadoff problem, dropped some dead weight, and has done a great job rebuilding the bullpen and rotation. Now he needs to add some offense. The Braves need to start hitting with RISP and give the pitching a break!!!!!!!

    Reply
    • Matt Busche

      13 years ago

      so you mean Prado and Heyward just return back to their 2010 forms and not what they were in 2011?

      Reply
      • bravesdude

        13 years ago

        Why wouldn’t it happen ? Last year was the worst year of Prado’s career and was hampered by a staff infection . Heyward was injured again last year also and didi his best to try and play through it after being called out by Chipper for a lack of toughness .

        The chances of them turning back into the 2010 form are are very possible .

        Reply
        • Matt Busche

          13 years ago

          I’m saying it probably will happen. No need to get a new LF/RF when we already have two pretty good ones

          Reply
          • bravesdude

            13 years ago

            “No need to get a new LF/RF when we already have two pretty good ones”

            Not his year , anyway . But next year if Prado is still on the team , he will be moving to 3rd which will leave a whole in LF . And other than Swisher , Eithier and BJ Upton , the OF list for FA’s next year is pretty thin . And the only one of those under the age of 30 is Upton .

            Reply
      • Clayton Wilson

        13 years ago

        Don’t forget about Uggla basically missing half a season….

        Reply
  12. bravesdude

    13 years ago

    If Wren can convince Bourn to convince Boras that 5 years for $50M on a team will that will be contending year in and year out , then the Braves might have a shot at getting this done . With Chipper and Lowe’s contracts coming off the books next year and a lot of our guys still going through arbitration over the next several years , we should be able to sign him without it hurting our pockets .

    Reply
    • jamesa-2

      13 years ago

      With Chipper and Lowe’s contracts coming off the books and a fair number of players still in arbitration, Boras is going to salivate like a Saint Bernard at all the money Atlanta will have available to pay his client.

      Reply
      • bravesdude

        13 years ago

        But that doesn’t mean that we will give in . I’m all for keeping him if it’s a fair deal for both sides . If not , than we may have to look at other options for CF like Victorino or Upton in FA next year or someone through trade yet again . Our only internal option are Myke Jones and Jose Constanza . Not much talent there .

        Reply
        • Clayton Wilson

          13 years ago

          I imagine Victorino is going to be more expensive than Bourn. So if they’re not willing to extend Bourn, chances are Victorino is already off the table. I don’t think he leaves Philly anyway….

          Reply
          • DerekC

            13 years ago

            I can’t see Vic being more expensive than Bourn/Boras. Victorino is 1.5 years (appx) older, his defense isn’t as good, and while he has more power, he doesn’t steal nearly as much.

            PHI will have some $$$ with letting Hamels walk.

            Reply
        • jamesa-2

          13 years ago

          I agree that Atlanta shouldn’t necessarily give in. But not giving in could very well cost them a top-notch CF. Bourn is not a franchise player, but he certainly sets up nicely as a major piece. It could behoove ATL to slightly overpay for him if they can use him as part of a long-term foundation.

          If they aren’t paying for Bourn, they likely are not affording Victorino.

          Upton won’t be coming cheap either, though he should cost less than Bourn.

          Reply
        • DerekC

          13 years ago

          Todd Cunningham is the highest on the depth charts. Constanza is only considered for 4th OF and mainly corner OF gigs. Cunningham needs some time to be consistent in the minors, but he’s good stuff.

          Reply
          • Adam

            13 years ago

            Cunningham AT BEST will end up being a 4th OF who will occasionally back up CF.  Some scouts have projected him to be what they call a “fringe” CF who is better suited as a corner OF.  Looking up and down the organization, Matt Lipka is the best CF option in the minors but since he was just converted from SS, he is a minimum of 2 full seasons away from a big league debut if not 3.

            Reply
            • DerekC

              13 years ago

              I didn’t know what the time-table was on Lipka. I know his offense equates to a CF, but I wasn’t sure about his defense. We have got to get more OF prospects.

              Reply
      • DerekC

        13 years ago

        Remember Chipper still has an option. And based on his (stubborn playing) history, he’s going to retire when he wins a batting title…

        Reply
  13. R.D.

    13 years ago

    It looks as if we may end up with…a Bourn Ultimatum.

    Reply
  14. bjsguess

    13 years ago

    The great inefficiency in the market today – speed and defense. A 4 WAR player signing for what a 2 WAR player would normally get? You build a team around acquisitions like this and you’ve got a very good team on the cheap.

    Reply
  15. Jeff 31

    13 years ago

    Bourn is the type of player the Braves need most right now- a good OBP, good defensive CF.  Braves have a bunch of flyball/SO pitchers, so OF defense is important.

    Prado/Bourn/Heyward may be the best defensive OF in the NL next year, and if Heyward and Prado rebound like they should, a pretty decent offensive unit also.

    I wouldn’t want to be a GB pitcher in ATL anytime soon though- that infield defense is scary bad with Chipper/Uggla/Freeman and no A-Gon.

    Reply
    • Clayton Wilson

      13 years ago

      No need to call out Freeman here. He may not have the best range in the league, but he’s certainly not a liability on defense. One year of sketchy defensive metrics aren’t all that relevant to me. I watched that guy play at least 100 games last year and was pretty impressed with how he handled himself on defense. Like I said, he’ll likely always have limited range but he’s at least league-average.

      No argument on Chipper or Uggla, although Chipper could be gone after this season.

      Reply
      • Jeff 31

        13 years ago

        Freeman’s hands are great, his range isn’t.    It evens out to where he’s average on defense.  Pastornicky’s probably got range similar to A-Gon, but less of an arm.   Freeman bailed out A-Gon and Uggla a ton last year with their throws (A-Gon took a lot of risks knowing Freeman could get it)

        I kinda wish the Braves had been able to keep A-Gon one more year, but he wasn’t worth the $3mil it would have took.

        Reply
    • toddcoffeytime

      13 years ago

      Best defensive OF is probably Arizona, but that is a nice starting 3 for sure.

      Reply
  16. FreshMintt

    13 years ago

    I’d love to see Bourn on the Cardinals, I’m not the biggest Jon Jay fan, and besides Furcal is an awful leadoff hitter.

    Reply
    • DerekC

      13 years ago

      Furcal is the reason we’re going to pay Bourn his money.

      Reply
  17. Dock_Elvis

    13 years ago

    My concern would be Bourn turning into Juan Pierre.

    Reply
  18. tapehead4

    13 years ago

    The Bourn Identity: his real name is Fausto Carmona.

    Reply
  19. MichaelH

    13 years ago

    He’s was traded to the Braves and will leave a free agent like so many other former Braves that stopped for a cup of coffee before signing elsewhere because that’s what always happens.

    Reply

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