Cafardo On Youkilis, Lowrie, Manny, Red Sox

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe asked 55 people in baseball if they'd rather have Bryce Harper or Mike Trout.  The final tally: Harper 25, Trout 24, six undecided.  Athletics GM Billy Beane was one of the six on the fence and likely had the best quote of anyone.  "Beatles or Stones?  They’re both great, aren’t they?"  Here's more from Cafardo's column..

  • The Pirates and Dodgers could be the teams most willing to pull the trigger on Kevin Youkilis.  The recent shift from third base to first has been a plus for scouts watching him, though he hasn’t performed well enough yet to wow anyone.
  • Astros shortstop Jed Lowrie has 12 homers this year and his offensive ability may make him a target at the trading deadline.  However, one AL GM pointed out that health concerns will impact his value.
  • Cafardo wonders if the Blue Jays might consider Manny Ramirez after letting Vladimir Guerrero go.
  • While Daisuke Matsuzaka would probably like to remain in the major leagues and in Boston, Matsuzaka will be in demand in Japan since he is still relatively young and still considered a big name, according to a major league source.  The right-hander could earn another multiyear deal if he does well this season.
  • Some baseball people wouldn't be shocked to see the Red Sox move Daniel Bard if he gets himself straightened out.  Theo Epstein has always been a big fan and Cafardo wonders out loud if something could be worked out with the Cubs for Matt Garza.  Garza, he opines, would be a perfect fit for an AL East team.
  • The Dodgers could pull the trigger on Ryan Dempster soon and the Blue Jays also seem to have serious interest.
  • Teams are reassessing their commitment to scouting Japanese players.  One GM said, “Is all the money spent and devoted to scouting really yielding any great player? You’ve had Kei Igawa, Daisuke Matsuzaka, the kid from Minnesota [Tsuyoshi Nishioka], and really, is the money spent worth it?"


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46 Comments on "Cafardo On Youkilis, Lowrie, Manny, Red Sox"


theophilus166
3 years 2 months ago

None of the Dodgers 5 starters have an ERA higher than 3.59.  Capuano and Kershaw are under 3.00, and Eovaldi is filling in for Lilly and has an ERA under 2.00. Harang and Billingsley have been decent with ERA’s under 3.60.  Who gets bumped for Dempster?   I wish they’d save their prospects for some offense.  They could afford to upgrade at virtually every position outside of CF, RF, and C.  I like the aggressiveness, and Dempster would immediately be the Dodgers #2 starter, but unless they can get him extremely cheap, it doesn’t make a ton of sense.

BlueSkyLA
BlueSkyLA
3 years 2 months ago

You’ve explained perfectly why all this talk about Garza and Dempster doesn’t make any real sense, especially with so many more teams having playoff hopes this year. Very few teams are going to be dumping for dollars and those teams will hold out for great offers. The Dodgers simply can’t upgrade significantly with either of these starters and no doubt the Cubs would demand a king’s ransom in prospects for them.

slider32
3 years 2 months ago

Dodgers should wait and get Hamels, he might put them over the top.

BlueSkyLA
BlueSkyLA
3 years 2 months ago

You have explained precisely why this neither of these players make much sense for the Dodgers. Any team with players to deal this July will be able to ask a very tall price.

johnsilver
3 years 2 months ago

I would like to see Garza in Boston as a part of the rotation and it would be a fix for next season always. Bard (after his return) and more would be the cost, but it wouldn’t be much more that just Bard and this might be the one to pursue. The 1st thing is to get Bard more than 2 games straight firing strikes. Then they have over the winter and all of next year to decide if they want to offer Garza an extension.

Vmmercan
3 years 2 months ago

I don’t know, Bard is a great and a healthy arm, but he has never, at any point, even been a decent starter. Not in the majors or minors so as far as I see it he has the ceiling of a solid closer. That’s not someone you give up a front-end rotation arm with a track record for. 

It would take Bard and at least a top prospect in my mind.

johnsilver
3 years 2 months ago

 It would take more than Bard. He would be the Closer, under control for 3 more seasons and Boston sending over one of the high upside prospects they have at A Ball also for sure. They currently have many at the time, but Bard would be the centerpiece and allow the Cubs to move Marmol permanently to middle relief (where he should stay) since he has never been consistent with his control from 1 game to the next and is the perfect 7-8th inning guy, unless they could get his value built up and move his contract.

Mike1L
3 years 2 months ago

In all honesty, I can’t see a Garza for Bard plus a low A prospect trade from a Cubs perspective, even putting aside the disparities in value.  The Cubs are an awful team, they will be an awful team and awful teams really don’t get a lot of value from closers.  If they are going to trade Garza, they need position prospects.

johnsilver
3 years 2 months ago

 They may still go that way, *if* Boston deems the season salvageable. Bard is a repetition in a deep BP with Bailey due back end of July, Aceves currently closing and too many middle relievers for too few current roster slots as it is and all have been effective. they really need to move 2-3.

Bard would be a valuable chip, but if Epstein wanted prospects the cost in that way may be too high.

One thing they have ready and the Cubs need is a catcher in Ryan Lavarnway at AAA, then it would get down to a couple of the A ball prospects if Bard was not included.

Mike1L
3 years 2 months ago

 My point is that I think Bard plus a low prospect for Garza is a terrible overpay for the Cubs.  I’m not running down Bard-it’s a situational judgement.  The Cubs don’t have a real use for Bard that gives them present value (so, he saves 4 more games that Marmol-big deal)  If I’m Theo, I have to see Garza as the chip for a really big payday, a basis for starting to rebuild the team he puts on the field, not someone who is going to be there 70 innings a year.  If that were the case, why not just keep Garza’s 200 quality starting innings?

MaineSox
3 years 2 months ago

It makes sense if Epstein still believes he can be a starter.

Bard’s troubles this year aren’t necessarily related to him converting to a starter’s role because they actually date back to September of last year when he was still in the pen, and he has shown flashes of what he’s capable of as a starter this year, so it wouldn’t be an unreasonable belief.

Assuming the belief is still that he can become a starter a trade centered around Bard for Garza could actually make sense for both teams as well.  The Red Sox are trying to contend right now, and it would give them a starter that can help them immediately, while the Cubs are building for the future, so having Bard around while he tries to figure it out isn’t going to make any difference to them, and once he figures it out he would give them another good starter who is under team control longer than Garza and is cheaper than Garza.

This is all based on Theo still believing Bard can start, but the idea first came about while Theo was the GM, so it’s not unreasonable to think he might believe that.

johnsilver
3 years 2 months ago

That was why thought Lavarnway and a couple of the people they Have in A ball would be used if Boston even looks at Garza. Cubs need a catcher in the worst of ways and Lavarnway is ready.

NomarGarciaparra
3 years 2 months ago

After seeing John Lackey and AJ Burnett, I would be a bit hesitant to trade and extend Garza. He will probably require a similar extension.

Although the difference is that Garza has pitched in the AL East and had success. And he’s been very healthy throughout his career.

notsureifsrs
3 years 2 months ago

burnett had more al east success than garza

you have to give up a #1 starter package to acquire garza, but you will not get a #1 starter for it. there’s a good chance you won’t even get a #2. wouldn’t be a good move

johnsilver
3 years 2 months ago

 You think it’s all from being in NY then? The “performing under the lights” thing and different than say.. Javy vazquez?

FWIW.. You can take one of Burnett’s injury years into account (3 year period) and make that case.. But even then his stats are only negligible better than Garza.. If anyone would say Burnett was a #1, then would have to say Garza was also and IMO? neither is, or ever was. Maybe a #2.

ThinkBlue10
3 years 2 months ago

Dodgers better not give up any of our top prospects to get Dempster. Why do we need another 30+ year old in the rotation? Why not go after Garza?

BlueSkyLA
BlueSkyLA
3 years 2 months ago

Neither one really makes any sense if the Dodgers have to deal a prospect to get them.

Greg Passot
3 years 2 months ago

I hope Dempster goes to Toronto.  I would like to continue to pull for him and my wife being from the TO area, that would be a perfect fit.  He’s also Canadian so that could be a nice fit as well. Maybe after the season he will still become a free agent and would consider coming back to the Cubs after they get some prospects for him.  He;s a great influence in the club house, great for the young players (pitchers and otherwise) and he is great for the city of Chicago.  Many people don’t realize how well he has pitched in years past considering all that he had to go through with his daughter’s illness.  To go through all of that and to still pitch, without complaints, at a high level, etc.. is a great feat especially if you consider that excelling at the MLB level is mostly a mental sport.

Lunchbox45
3 years 2 months ago

jays aren’t competing this year.. how does it make sense to trade for a soon to be free agent?

it makes no sense what so ever. 

3 years 2 months ago

I’m tired of hearing about Harper & Trout. Can we find some new upcoming prospects to get hyped about and talk about now?

notsureifsrs
3 years 2 months ago

jurickson profar is in line to take over as the #1 prospect in baseball. he’s having an amazing year with a ~.385 wOBA in AA at just 19 years of age

bryce harper has a ~.385 wOBA at age 19, too. in the majors

so no. you’ll hear about harper and trout and you’ll like it

Rabbitov
3 years 2 months ago

Not if Dylan Bundy has anything to say about it. 

notsureifsrs
3 years 2 months ago

i wrote his name originally, but profar just made the point better

bundy is awesome though and you were all over that pre-draft last year

Rabbitov
3 years 2 months ago

It’ll be close between them.  I think when all is said and done Profar has the edge on more than half the lists but Bundy takes a few of them.  

I may have been right on Bundy, but man, last years draft was just beyond belief. I think most people would have been safe standing behind just about any prospect taken. 

3 years 2 months ago

 Oscar Taveras is leading the Texas league in batting Avg and has an ops of .963 as a 19 year old. He and Profar are the next wave of position prospects.

CitizenSnips
3 years 2 months ago

Billy Hamilton is my personal favorite to watch.

Rabbitov
3 years 2 months ago

Dylan Bundy, Profar, Machado, Bauer, Wil Myers, Hultzen, Miguel Sano, etc.  You can absolutely find them but you have to look. 

Slopeboy
3 years 2 months ago

Coming over to the AL next year, if I’m Houston, I’d hold on to Lowrie unless I can get Something outstanding in return. I’ve always liked the way he plays, smart hitter, tough out with some pop and somewhat versatile. Unfortunately, the health issues are true, he can’t seem to play a whole season. With the DH in use in the AL, that may be a way to keep him healthy and finally get a better gauge as well as a return on his abilities.

3 years 2 months ago

im tired of the dodgers trading prospects for players like Youkilis and Dempster. I feel is the same thing as the Casey blake trade. They are going to regret trading away that prospect like they did Santana. If your going to trade away prospects GO BIG OR GO HOME!! get a star

EdinsonPickle
3 years 2 months ago

Are you kidding Beane? The Beatles are leagues better than the Stones. As for Harper and Trout, they may as well close their eyes and toss a dart at their pictures on the wall. 

Bernaldo
3 years 2 months ago

Why would Toronto want to sign another washed up hitter? Both Vlad and Manny have nothing left; they were both great hitters in their day but time has caught up with both of them.   Average AAA pitchers can now get them out pretty easily because they cannot generate enough bat speed to even catch up to 88 mph fast balls.   It is time for both of them to say good bye.

Bombastic_Dave
3 years 2 months ago

Next headline: fans wonder if Carfardo knows what baseball is.

3 years 2 months ago

Stupid move if the Pirates take him.

PiratesFan
3 years 2 months ago

I don’t want the Bucs do go after Youkilis, but it’d be great if we could get Jed Lowrie.

3 years 2 months ago

* a lot more

3 years 2 months ago

yes, you are right,trade Youkilis for prospects + Bard for Garza. 

petrie000
3 years 2 months ago

can we please drop the whole concept of the Cubs taking Kevin Youkilis in any of the trade discussions? He’s old, he’s breaking down, and he costs a lot of money…. which means a rebuilding team like the Cubs have less than 0 interest in him. The only way the Sox are unloading him is if they throw in a top prospect or 2 to get the Cubs to deal with his salary.

petrie000
3 years 2 months ago

he’s the best pitcher on the market unless the Phillies officially make Hamels available. You also mentioned that he has a career ERA of 3.85, his other peripherals are strong and his sub-.500 win/loss record is entirely irrelevant since wins and losses mean nothing when evaluating a pitcher.

He may not be a future hall-of-famer, but he’s the big prize on the trade market and he plays a premium position. the Cubs aren’t desperate to move him for monetary reasons either, which means anybody who wants him has to make it worth the Cubs while. so he IS going command a huge return.

petrie000
3 years 2 months ago

his k/9 ratio is actually quite good and that’s a very telling stat when evaluating a pitcher because it’s based entirely on pitching skill versus hitters and nothing else. i’m not gonna run down the whole list of Garza stats, since i’m not really a stat geek and anybody curious can do it themselves, but i think it’s safe to say there’s not a single ‘worrying’ stat on his record.

I’ll give you that he’s not an Ace… but then at this point neither is anyone else on the market. What Garza undeniably is is a very consistent number-2 quality pitcher who should just be coming in to his prime, age and talent wise. He’s also been young than Grienke, and doesn’t have all those nagging questions about social anxiety hovering around him the way Grienke does. So if you’re gonna spend a bunch of prospects to get a really good number 2, i think it’s safe to say Garza, in most GM’s opinions, is the safer bet of the two.

But again, the point here really isn’t about how he compares to other pitchers hypothetically available. The point is he IS on the block for the right price, He’s the best pitcher out there, And there’s a lot of teams in the playoff races that need to shore up their rotations. Put this all together and somebody’s likely gonna offer much more than a ‘fair deal’ to try and pry him away from the Cubs, and the cubs are easily in a position to say no to anything that doesn’t blow them away. 

If the Cubs trade Garza, they’re getting a mint in return.

notsureifsrs
3 years 2 months ago

garza’s career FIP-, 2007-2012 (100 is league average)

96
98
99
111
74
97

we’re supposed to believe his true talent level is anywhere near 74? greinke’s turn:

83
81
53
79
78
53

greinke is not a ~55 FIP- pitcher. arguing that is almost as silly as arguing garza is an ace. but greinke is inarguably a ~80 FIP- pitcher

you prefer the guy with the vastly inferior track record while he is having a vastly inferior season?

you’re doing it wrong

petrie000
3 years 2 months ago

you must’ve missed the part where i agreed with you that Garza’s not an ace, ‘cuz i did say that.

As for the FIP-, i’ll admit to having no idea what that is. not going to dismiss it, ‘cuz like i said i don’t know what it is…. but i’m going to assume it’s the one you first found to justify your argument, since most people go straight to WAR…

either way it’s irrelevant to the original post, since Grienke isn’t available and Garza is… And as i keep saying Garza’s the best on the market and someone’s going to pay a lot for him, because most GM’s don’t think he’s over-rated… otherwise he wouldn’t be big news around baseball.

notsureifsrs
3 years 2 months ago

you were the one talking about greinke and how most GMs would prefer garza

you’re also the one who brought up k/9, one of the three main components of FIP (the other two are walks and HRs)

all i did was give you the data. it doesn’t fit your conclusion

petrie000
3 years 2 months ago

and i stand by it. I just have no interest in spending the next 15 posts cherry-picking stats back and forth to prove that we have a difference of opinion. it’s a matter of opinion, i know this, and i don’t see the point in arguing that.

notsureifsrs
3 years 2 months ago

you’ve been arguing it for like 10 paragraphs so far but k

petrie000
3 years 2 months ago

been arguing the assertion that Garza’s not worth that much in trade value, actually. For some reason everybody missed the part where i said i wasn’t a stat geek.

Notin J. Notin
3 years 2 months ago

Maybe I’m misreading it, but I think he means trade Youkilis to Mystery Team for prospects, and take those prospects plus Bard and deal for Garza.

I’m not sure what type of proepcts Youkilis is going to net, but I’d think the Sox might still need to kick in something as well…