Quick Hits: Draft, Headley, Phillies, Pence

For the most part, the new draft system has reined in costs and pushed players to sign early, writes Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.  However, six first-round picks remain unsigned as the Friday deadline approaches.  Of course, the draft pool limit should keep the drama in check as teams are unwilling to overspend to the point where they have to forfeit draft picks.  The two most interesting teams to watch figure to be the Pirates (Mark Appel) and the Nationals (Lucas Giolito), Mayo writes.  Links from around baseball as Wednesday turns into Thursday..

  • If the Padres make Chase Headley available, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (via Twitter) expects the Orioles to inquire on him.  For his part, the third baseman has said that he would prefer to remain in San Diego.
  • Phillies outfielder Hunter Pence might have the most trade value of anyone on the team, including Cole Hamels, writes Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  Pence, 29, should make close to $15MM through arbitration for 2013.
  • It may seem like a no-brainer for the Phillies to have an all-out fire sale, but Richard Justice of MLB.com writes that it's not quite that simple.  Philadelphia is leading the majors in attendance for a second straight year and their core players believe that they can still make a run in 2012.  Regardless, one has to imagine that Ruben Amaro Jr. & Co. will make trades with the future in mind.
six first-round picks who haven't signed


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70 Comments on "Quick Hits: Draft, Headley, Phillies, Pence"


BustaPozee
3 years 22 days ago

One year later pence is trade bait again.

dylanp5030
3 years 22 days ago

Not really. They just said he has the most value. It’s like saying Kershaw has the most value, doesn’t mean he’s gonna be traded

FacelessGeneralManager
3 years 22 days ago

But everything i read on the internet is true. And BustaPozee says he is trade bait, it has to be true!!!

3 years 22 days ago

Please, putting Kershaw and Pence in the same class is a dis-service to a CY winner like Kershaw.

Pence is a good player, not a great one, not even close.  And he is not worth the $13-$15 million he will be paid next year.  However unlike Hamels, if a team trades for Pence, they are only tied to him for one year, he may put up a good year, and they get the bonus of compensation picks.  

The trade made to acquire Pence was a massive overpay.  If the Phillies were to extend him at $15 million for any extended period, that would be another mass overpay, to yet another over 30 player, who is overvalued by the beholder.

bergeraj
3 years 22 days ago

 WoW, he was simply saying Pence has the most trade value on the team as would Kershaw on the dodgers = Calm down!

Too Many Idiots
3 years 22 days ago

He didn’t put him in the same class.  He simply used him as a comparison example of how he may be the team’s most valuable trade piece.

dylanp5030
3 years 22 days ago

I never intended to imply they were in the same class (which the obviously are not). Yes, out of all the trades the Phillies have done, the HP trade was the worst. I could have lived with Cosart and Santana or Singleton, we shouldn’t have included both.

As far as an extension, it would make the trade worth whole. I’d rather get 7 years out of him than 2.5 for all we traded. 15 million per year is fair as he is in his prime now.

Ohhhplease
3 years 22 days ago

I didn’t know Kershaw’s mom was named Ryan….relax slugger!!  No-one is saying they are in the “same class” it was just an example, kind of like saying “Ryan is in the same class as agro bloggers who WAAAAYYYY overreact to comments…” oh wait, bad example…..

Phillies_Aces35
3 years 22 days ago

What Dylan said. He’s no more trade bait than any other player.

I’m sure for the right package they’d move him but more than likely they’re going to hold onto him for next year’s team.

Imagine, they likely could’ve dealt Dom Brown for Carlos Beltran last year at the trade deadline to pick up an OF bat for the stretch run.  Then they’d still have Cozart and Singleton in the system.

FacelessGeneralManager
3 years 22 days ago

I think Zach Links should always do the “Baseball Blogs Weigh In” section. Cuz then Links can give us some “links”

3 years 22 days ago

Pence to the Pirates is interesting, but they couldn’t get him last year, and I don’t think they would be able to give up what Philly would want this year. If the Pirates are going to make a move they need to jump on Upton plan and simple.

vtadave
3 years 22 days ago

The Pirates wouldn’t give up enough to get Pence, but they would for Upton, who would require MORE? I guess I get what you’re saying, but if I’m the Pirates, I probably prefer Pence.

go_jays_go
3 years 22 days ago

If the Pirates plan is to ‘compete’ in the short-term, and then re-evaluate their situation after 2012, and again in 2013, then yes, Pence will be the better choice.

A team that grabs Upton should plan to compete year-in, year-out.

The Pirates will likely begin to plan for 2013 and beyond after this season.

3 years 21 days ago

 Why would you prefer pence who is 30 over Upton who is 24. I just think Upton would fit well with the team and you would have him under team control until 2015. I just feel there is more upside in getting a proven guy at 24, than a proven guy that is 6 years older in Pence. I just don’t want them renting a player for a year hence the reason why I don’t like them trying to get Quinton.

vtadave
3 years 21 days ago

All depends on the asking price. Would you really want the Pirates to deal Cole and Marte for Upton? That’s probably what it would take.

Guest
3 years 22 days ago

i hope we sign lil gio. this might be our last shot to draft a top talent like this for a while

not_brooks
3 years 22 days ago

It’ll definitely be interesting to see how well the Nats draft without high picks.

Thomas Wilson
3 years 22 days ago

They have had some pretty solid picks out of the 1st round in recent years Jordan Zimmerman, Lombardozzi, Norris, Espinosa, Milone, Peacock, AJ Cole, Matt Purke, Tyler Moore, and Louis Coleman(didn’t sign) are all either in MLB or will be.

Guest
3 years 22 days ago

yeah i agree. looks like tom delaney beat me to it, but outside of the easy picks of stras and bryce, and the semi-easy pick of Rzimm way back, pretty much all of our guys have been from outside the 1st round

DempseyK
3 years 22 days ago

Unless Upton is going to be moved at a reasonable price, I would prefer the Pirates steer clear of that type of move.  Im not 100% convinced that he will be the consistent stud that many feel he will be.  Look at this season for instance…far from stud numbers thus far.  I would do a Jameson Taillon, Brad Lincoln, Jordy Mercer, Casey Mcghee deal though.  Gives the D Back a Starter for the present in Lincoln, a Starter for the future in Taillon, a MLB ready Shortstop to replace Drew next season, and a MLB third baseman to save them from Ryan Roberts.

Carter
3 years 22 days ago

The Phillies were >95% sold out for the season on opening day this year.  All season tix and multi-game packages were sold out.  Many (most?) fans feel robbed/cheated.  When tix go on sale in Philly next year it will be a very different story.

patburn
3 years 22 days ago

I agree, I find it amusing when Tom McCarthy remarks on the sell out crowd when you look at the stadium and see so many empty blue seats. 

Carter
3 years 22 days ago

 McCarthy is part of the PR team and is obligated to put a smiley face on everything.  The seats are sold but the number of no-shows speaks volumns.  This year’s no-shows will be no-sales next year and the sellout streak will end.  I bet the number of eyeballs on TV screens has dropped too, reducing the value of the next TV contract.

3 years 22 days ago

You’re still going to get a lot of people at the games, but people will be going for less.  Tix will have to be made cheaper, concession and merchandise sales will go down, etc.  Philly is a great sports town, but these fans will turn on you.  Phillies fans were declaring victory in April, flustered in May, whining in June, and now the reality of July has hit and they’ve stopped saying anything.  With the unparalleled passion also comes significant contempt and anger when things go wrong.  Philly was a football town for a long time, perhaps that will be the case again in the not too distant future.

3 years 21 days ago

As much money as the Phillies have put into this team, I don’t see how one bad year all of a sudden, would make everyone stop going to the games next year.
 
With the payroll they have, they should still be able to field competitive teams on a yearly basis. Every year, they’ll have money coming off the books, where they can put toward another hole.
 
I just don’t see one bad year, as the beginning of the end.

1980CHAMPS
3 years 22 days ago

Please trade Pence.  Oh wait RAJ will probably mess that up too.

Bigj48
3 years 22 days ago

would the phillies do a Pence, plus a prospect for Upton?

Eduardo Medina
3 years 22 days ago

 I really don´t think so…

Thomas Wilson
3 years 22 days ago

In a second, but AZ wouldn’t

3 years 22 days ago

They would, but why would the D’Backs?
I really see AA, going after upton in the same mold as Rasmus. Think something along the lines of Hecheveria+low A, high cieling type of guy for Upton. I could also see him getting the Padres involved where he trades a Snider plus something small for Headley, then flips Headley+Hech+B prospect for Upton+Joe Saunders.

Thomas Wilson
3 years 22 days ago

More likely Marisnick+Escobar+Syndergaard+Jimenez+Dean/Lopes for Upton and Drew

3 years 22 days ago

LOL. You want Bautista and Lawrie as well? You are out of your fricken’ mind if you think Upton will fetch all of that

Thomas Wilson
3 years 22 days ago

I am not asking for anything but the DBacks will want a haul for a 24yo RF who finished 3rd in the MVP race and is signed for less than 40 million over the next 3.5 years. I don’t think I would pay that price but a Rasmus, Upton Gose OF to go with a EE, KJ, Drew, Lawrie IF JBats DH D’A/JPA C looks pretty good through 2015-16

3 years 22 days ago

Um yeah… Bautista at DH? KJ will still be with the team through 15/16? There’s a few problems with that statement

Thomas Wilson
3 years 22 days ago

Bautista will be be 35 in the final year of that contract odds are there are better 3B/RF options than him 2014-16

3 years 22 days ago

Wow, didnt realize one of the better RF’s in the game and the best hitting one will all of a sudden become to old to play the position in 2 short years and that there will be so many goods ones available that Bautista will become a DH. Give your head a shake please

Thomas Wilson
3 years 22 days ago

If they have Rasmus, Gose and Marsnick all hitting well, EE at 1B and Lawrie at 3B where would you play the 33-35yo?

Bigj48
3 years 22 days ago

dbacks r still trying to win now, pence would be a good addition, if signed to an extension first, i just dont know what kind of prospect we would also want with him? Ive always been a fan of Pence’s, maybe i am over valueing him?

mrsjohnmiltonrocks
3 years 22 days ago

Let’s see, who needs a 3rd baseman?  Who doesn’t is a shorter list: Cardinals, Mets, Nationals, Blue Jays, Rangers, Giants, Pirates.

I would think if Headley becomes available, (and he could because Logan Forsythe is a natural third baseman, and some of the Padres best prospects play third base) that he would be in high demand, and not just from contending teams.

Headley has distinct home/road splits and he’s a much better player away from Petco.  I think his career would really take off if he got out of there.  Padres should be able get something really great for him.  Since there’s still some years of control, a shortage of decent third baseman, and it’s an area of strength for the Padres, they really should see what they could get. 

Thomas Wilson
3 years 22 days ago

Headley and Quentin for Machado and a Low A arm or two.

3 years 22 days ago

That is a terrible idea. Duquette should hang up on that one.
In fact, I will cut the lines to the warehouse and tell Duquette’s cell phone provider to turn off his service!

3 years 22 days ago

Machado and Bundy are off limits, realistically.  Certainly neither could be acquired for Headley and/or Quentin.  Adding anything is absurd.  You’re talking two of the top 10 prospects in the game.  Headley won’t get an A prospect from anyone under any circumstances, but he could get you a couple of Bs.  If I were GM of the O’s I’d give up Schoop, Arrieta, Avery or Reimold and maybe an outside the top 10 organizational guys SP for Headley and Quentin.  But I doubt they’re looking to move both in the same deal; that limits both their pool to choose from and probably overall return.  Braves should be in on Headley.  Like the O’s, they have a stable of young upside pitching that hasn’t performed yet that they may be willing to part with  for a guy like Headley.  Matusz, Arrieta, Minor, Delgado, etc could all serve as a strong piece for headley. 

Thomas Wilson
3 years 22 days ago

Maybe, but Headley plays in a hitters graveyard Petco, since 2009 his road 129 wRC+ trails only David Wright(137 wRC+) and Evan Longoria(132 wRC+) among 3B and I think he explodes the way Beltre(114 wRC+) did leaving Safeco. Headley has 2.5 years of control left and is a very good defender at 3B, Quentin has a 125 OPS+ over the last 3 years and costs less than 4 mill for the rest of the year.

I am not saying Baltimore will do it but Machado is about what it would take to get it done. If Brett Lawrie is what it cost to get Shaun Marcum getting 3 years worth of below market cost above average bats is worth a top prospect.

Matt_P102
3 years 22 days ago

It’s not ridiculous. It will never happen and would be a Padres win. But it’s not ridiculous.

Lawrie was ranked #40. He was never considered a potential all-star. Machado will be ranked in the top 10. There’s a bigger difference between a guy ranked 10 and a guy ranked 40 then there is between a guy ranked 40 and a guy ranked 150. Very few prospects pan out and the top ranked ones have the best chance.

If the Orioles had a top forty prospect, then trading him and two other solid prospects for Headley makes sense. Or if they had a few prospects in the sixty to hundred range, than trading them for Headley makes sense. But they don’t.

That’s why the Orioles will only offer a package similar to what the Braves offered for Bourn. Houston got Bourn for Schafer (young MLB player with potential), Abreu (relief pitching prospect), Clemens(#3 starter potential) and Oberhlotzer(#4 starter). If you got something like Matusz, Avery, Bobby Bundy and Wright then that would be better than what Houston got.

Thomas Wilson
3 years 22 days ago

Hey thats fine Marcum in not the player Headley is either. Marcum was more in line with Fister being traded last year.

That said Headley is a very attractive player to the Braves, Tigers, Whitesox, Dodgers, Pirates, and as a 1B/3B/LF he also makes a ton of sense for the Rays, Yankees, Indians, and DBacks. Bourn was a 1.5 year guy as opposed to a 2.5 year guy like Headley.

Headley to the Brewers as part of a Greinke three way might make a ton of sense as well. I am not a Padres fan but I have watched him lash XBH after XBH on the road for years now.

Ohhhplease
3 years 22 days ago

Headley is not a LF…1b/3b is it…..

Thomas Wilson
3 years 22 days ago

He has played 389 games in MLB at 3B, 162 in LF, 2 games at 1B he can handle LF just fine and as a switch hitter with a career .299/.366/.445 line on the road his bat would play fine there

Jim McGrath
3 years 22 days ago

Beckett and Ellsbury for Pence and two top AAA  prospects; one a pitcher.

3 years 21 days ago

Headley and Rymer Liriano for Justin Upton.  Who says no?

jtcranker
3 years 21 days ago

 Pence will not be traded. Pierre, Victorino, Wiggington and Blanton will be. None will field top prospects, but maybe 2nd and 3rd tier prospects to refill some of the farm that Ruben has let go.My predictions… Pierre to REDS,Victorino to Indians,Wiggs to DODGERS and Blanton to ANGELS.

TophersReds
3 years 22 days ago

Leave then. Good luck finding a better site that merges multiple Baseball sites info into one.

MaineSox
3 years 22 days ago

You still here?

3 years 22 days ago

In all honesty, those seats are paid for, but they are ice cold.  No one is actually going to those games.  

johnsmith4
3 years 22 days ago

Forbes report on baseball had them with an operational loss of $10 mil last year.  Leading MLB in attendance with this payroll may not be so great.

Phillies_Aces35
3 years 22 days ago

It’s not that they don’t understand that concept its that they backed themselves into a corner.

If they’re following the Yankees model, they overpaid a relief pitcher last off season and from here on out, they’ll be smart.

3 years 22 days ago

 I got some field level seats near first base a couple dozen rows back for 35 each, I was pretty stoked. I haven’t been able to sit in seats like that since the 90s.

DempseyK
3 years 22 days ago

 If I am the Phillies, I am selling anything that people would be willing to buy EXCEPT for Pence, Brown, Howard, Utley, Worley, and Hamels.  For my money, that is the core that should be built around for the next 5 year plan.

3 years 22 days ago

 The Phillies are up for a new TV deal in 2015 that is going to be worth 2 to 5 billion dollars.

dylanp5030
3 years 22 days ago

I can’t understand putting Worley there. He is a nice player, but not a core player. The Phillies should build around Hamels and Pence. I really hope Brown shines after his injury riddled first half…

Bigj48
3 years 22 days ago

r u kidding, if anyone offers you anything for utley or howard u gotta jump on that. Howard has been declining, and utley lives in the o.r.

3 years 22 days ago

 I’m not sure why people are so quick to unload any of the 3 lefties in AAA (Owens, Locke, Wilson).  Pitching depth can evaporate quickly.  I’d also want to keep Taillon.  I was very eager for the Bucs to pounce on Upton (and Headley), but I have cooled on it the more I’ve thought about it.  They don’t need to go out and get a back of the rotation guy, they have 3 or more guys ready at AAA.  They need a bat that won’t cost much, and hopefully only cost $$$ instead of prospects.  Carlos Quentin is almost the only impact guy that could MAYBE be had for $$$ and B-/C prospects…MAYBE. 
The only people I’d be OK with them giving up at this point would be: Bedard, Lincoln, D. Cutch, Resop, Hanrahan, Latimore, Friday, Lambo, Clement, and others.  But those guys (outside of Hanrahan and Lincoln) don’t have a ton of value. 

nm344
3 years 22 days ago

o.r.? He hasnt had any surgeries.

3 years 22 days ago

I agree.  Unfortunately, the Phillies have the worst GM in baseball running their team.  He fumbles every aspect of his job, he just got lucky he got the job w/ a team already winning.  But the core of that team is old with no great young every day guy to build around.  And their great younger SP is about to leave.  The ‘core’ of Howard, Utley, Rollins, Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Papelblow is very old, getting hurt, and expensive.  I’ve been telling Phillies fans for a few years now that the end is around the corner; this team can’t be saved any time soon w/o a massive purge – and that may mean taking a B+ prospect for Lee just to move the salary and paying half Howard’s for a lesser prospect or two…but that won’t happen b/c Amaro is too dumb and afraid to run a team correctly.

3 years 22 days ago

Untrue.  I got to 10-20 games a year.  I’ve been to a number of games with thousands of empty seats

dbuck_vs
3 years 22 days ago

As do I, and we tend to do standing room as its a better view from the drink rail behind home plate, along with thousands of other people.

but yes, it is getting progressively emptier and quieter.

Ohhhplease
3 years 22 days ago

Why would you have a 4 million dollar pinch hitter on a team with a 50 million dollar payroll when he could net 3-4 prospects?? 

mrsjohnmiltonrocks
3 years 22 days ago

 I don’t think the Padres have the luxury to pay Headley to sit half of their games.

If they did, it would be a waste of resources for a team that’s nowhere close to contention.

3 years 22 days ago

For Pence, Moreland doesnt do it for me….. we dont need a DH or 1B.  It has to start with Olt. Then maybe Leonys Martin and Tanner Scheppers. That may be a bit much but maybe they are able to expand with Hamels rental….

3 years 21 days ago

Phillies New TV Deal = Winning!