Boras: Morales, Drew Willing To Wait Until June To Sign

Though Ervin Santana and Nelson Cruz have both caved and agreed to one-year deals after their free agent markets were significantly weighed down by their rejection of qualifying offers, Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew have no such plans to do, agent Scott Boras tells ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. Instead, the two plan to continue working out while awaiting multi-year deals, and could hold out until after the June amateur draft to do so (after which the draft compensation will no longer apply).

Boras feels that the qualifying offer system has "basically prevented them from free agency," opining that the system has instead placed both players "in jail." He offers criticism both of the system and of those who feel that his clients simply made a poor decision by not accepting a qualifying offer. Says Boras:

"Everybody talks about these players turning down these (one-year) qualifying offers like they're village idiots. The reason is, they don't want to be in the same position again next year. If I'm a good player, I'm going to take the prospect of free agency. If I'm one of these players, I'm not on the train to free agency — I'm on the ferris wheel of multiple qualifying offers. It is circular. There is no escape hatch to the system."

Whether or not one agrees with Boras' assessment of the system, there's certainly truth to the fact that players coming off strong seasons don't want to sign a one-year deal and find themselves in the same situation a year later. Players want security and stability both for themselves and their families; the prospect of either being separated from your family for a year or continually moving your family around the country does not appeal to many.

From my view, it's rather telling that Jhonny Peralta, who is nearly 11 months older than Drew and coming off a season in which he served a 50-game suspension for PEDs, was able to secure a four-year, $53MM contract while Drew remains unemployed. There's something to be said about contending teams with significant payrolls simply not feeling a need to add a shortstop, but one would imagine that Drew's market would improve significantly were the qualifying offer not attached. That's not to say he'd have received as large a guarantee as Peralta, but a reasonable three-year deal seems like it should have been attainable. A one-year deal, even at a higher rate than the average annual value he might receive on a three- or four-year deal, doesn't seem practical for a 30-year-old shortstop coming off a solid season.


213 Responses to Boras: Morales, Drew Willing To Wait Until June To Sign Leave a Reply

  1. JacobyWanKenobi 1 year ago

    Oh lord, just take a one year deal now instead of a one year deal in June and start building value.

    • WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 1 year ago

      I agree with you in general but Drew may very well be looking at next years FA SS class and be scared he’ll be in an even worse position.

      • pft2 1 year ago

        The injury prone Lowrie, the no OBP Hardy, the very expensive Hanley Ramirez (if he does not sign an extension)?. The erratic Cabrera who had a 1.2 WAR last year and has had 1.5 WAR or more declines the last 2 years?

        • Ron Loreski 1 year ago

          All of whom are still better than Drew.

          • brian310 1 year ago

            lol too true

          • Peter Middleton 1 year ago

            at offense. What if you already have good offense and need a groundball machine? Still not sure why Ramirez has not been moved to 3rd. Beast of a bat

      • kcmark 1 year ago

        So if the worst thing that happened to Drew was he plays 2 years at the QO -that a 2yr/28.2M contract. Much more than he is worth.

    • docmilo5 1 year ago

      Yes, and if you get a QO again next year, take it!

  2. WhoKilledTheRallyMonkey 1 year ago

    Every time Boras speaks I lose all sympathy for Drew and Morales

    • SumatranRatMonkey 1 year ago

      I hate to defend Boras, but what he is saying here is true. Regardless of what the compensation program was intended to it, it’s benefiting clubs with lots of money to spend and punishing mid-tier free agents.

      The Red Sox and Yankees each had 3 players they gave the QO. That allowed them to sign a bunch of free agents without having to give up as many draft picks. They were only able to do that because they could afford to give 3 guys $14 million each(if they had all accepted). A team like the Brewers would have to weight the pros and cons of extending just one qualifying offer. Also, the Sox/Yankees could have just pocketed the draft picks. That would have potentially given them 4 draft picks before most teams got 2. That’s broken.

      Robinson Cano still got paid but then you also have guys that are decent but not great players who are forced to sign for less money than they would have otherwise. The people benefiting financially are the owners since less money is going to the players.

      • RahZid 1 year ago

        As much as the QO system favors the large markets, it’s offset by the introduction of the competitive balance picks. As an example, Miami has 4 of the first 43 picks (45 if Morales and Drew sign before June) in this years draft, without making a single QO.

        • Metsfan93 1 year ago

          How does it definitely change to 45? What if picks are surrendered by signing Drew or Morales? Comp picks are added, but first rounders could be surrendered, too.

          • RahZid 1 year ago

            Fair enough, it depends on who signs them. My original point still stands. Small market teams have the competitive balance picks as an advantage (which are partially based on market size). Large markets have the QO system as a higher risk advantage.

          • NomarGarciaparra 1 year ago

            Can you explain how that competitive balance pick system works?

      • docmilo5 1 year ago

        Don’t defend Boras. If he wasn’t so greedy, he would have known better to take the QOs for guys like Drew and Morales. $14.1 mill was more money that either are worth.

        When more players starte accepting the QO’s, fewer teams will offer them.

        • SumatranRatMonkey 1 year ago

          Look man, you need to face reality. Boras is an agent and his job is to get his clients the most money he can. In the majority of instances, he does that. If you think he made a bad call with Drew and Morales that’s one thing. But to say he got greedy is naive. It’s not greed, it’s his job.

          • docmilo5 1 year ago

            $14.1 is the best that Drew, Morales and Cruz were going to get. Boras should have jumped all over that. That’s reality.

          • DMoney1184 1 year ago

            To be fair, in the case of anticipating the market for Stephen Drew, I think if you tried to tell Scott Boras, in the beginning of the off-season that A) Alex Rodriguez would be suspended for all of 2014, B) Derek Jeter would announce that 2014 would be his final season and C) that in spite of this, the Yankees would honestly seem prepared to go into 2014 with Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson penciled in at second and third, respectively, I think he (Boras) would laugh in your face. That’s like when Cashman said he was prepared to go into spring training with Bubba Crosby penciled into the everyday center field job. No one took him seriously (and for those of you who forget, they were right not to, in that scenario–Cashman signed Johnny Damon a few weeks later).

        • Peter Middleton 1 year ago

          Who deserves the money more, the owners or the players? I like to see the players get paid. Its not like anyone is stealing the money away

          • docmilo5 1 year ago

            The fans.

          • Peter Middleton 1 year ago

            I have a feeling you dont deserve it at all. EARN IT. Cry baby.

    • Vandals Took The Handles 1 year ago

      Boras is great theatre…..

      When his clients sign outrageous contracts from desperate owners/GM’s, he talks about the market.

      But when the market goes against him, he wants the rules changed.

      Sort of a corporate welfare guy.

  3. bjsguess 1 year ago

    The fact is that we don’t know what offers have been made to either player. Nor do we have a clear picture of their asking price.

    The reality is that teams will value those draft picks anywhere between $5-$15M. If you are guy like Morales, you need to factor that into your cost. So, if you believe that a fair market price without a draft pick would be 4/$50M (still too high IMO), you better be ready to settle for 4/$35-$45M … and that’s on a good day. My speculation is that Boras is telling people that you can’t discount his players because they have a draft pick assigned to them. But that’s the reality of the situation. Teams are not going to pay even money for a player with that anchor around the neck.

    • NL_East_Rivalry 1 year ago

      I think if he gets them to accept a lower salary it will end up better for him. People may sympathize for the players missing out on minions.

      What I hope happens is that they wait and still don’t get what they are looking for. Then that will prove that the QO wasn’t the thing killing their value, but their insane demands.

  4. johnsilver 1 year ago

    I’m not so sure Drew wouldn’t have gotten an offer in the same range as peralta did had he not been represented by Boras and been told to wait ‘until the market shapes out”, then had that same offer shopped to 29 other teams for a couple of weeks instead of getting a quick sign like the Cardinals did with Peralta.

    Boras really is slow learning each and every year to market adjustments. He falls further behind on his mid tier players every year, attempting force deals where none are available and jams them up, then throws the blame the other way.

    • Metsfan93 1 year ago

      While he may have had 4/53+ offers early on, even if Drew had a different agent, I don’t think he would’ve gone to St. Louis. While the question of draft pick lowering a contract by 5-15 MM is valid for most organizations, some teams (Cards, I’d guess A’s, Rays) might just not give up a draft pick for a non-superstar on anything shy of a Kyle Lohse-type discount.

      • pft2 1 year ago

        What discount? In his age 34-36 years Lohse has a 11 million AAV. Last year he produced 1.8 fWAR and is projected by Zips to deliver all of 1.5 WAR next year

        The A’s and Rays are too cheap to pay the money even w/o any draft pick consideration. Cards paid 4/52 for a player coming off a PED suspension in his age 32-35 years. No discount there and I don’t consider Peralta to be a super star

        Meanwhile, in another late signing the Braves give up a 1st round pick for just 1 year of Santana. Salary plus the cost of the pick is about 21 million and he is projected for 2.7 WAR. No discount there.

        Like I said, the market changed suddenly after the winter meetings in early December. Boras perception pre-December was probably right on, but who knows what went on in those meetings behind closed doors.

        • SumatranRatMonkey 1 year ago

          Fangraphs and Zips use FIP to derive their WAR values and FIP has trouble properly valuing pitch-to-contact/non-strikeout guys like Lohse. His true value is probably closer to B-Ref’s which was 4.3 WAR in 2012 and 3.3 WAR in 2013. B-Ref uses RA/9 for their pitcher values.

          • pft2 1 year ago

            FIPs is supposed to be a better predictor for future ERA though, and guys who strike out only 5.6/9 Ip rely on their defense a lot. Split the difference and 2.5 WAR is till not much of a discount given an expected 0.5 WAR per year decline. That’s 6 WAR over the deal and 33 million, or 5.5 million/win, which is about market value depending on who you read

          • PaperLions 1 year ago

            In general, FIP is a better predictor…but it is a general model and we know very well that the performance of some types of pitchers isn’t predicted particulary well by that model. There are some guys it will always miss low on and some guys it will always miss high on, which is inevitable when you use a generalized model that makes a lot of assumptions when the veracity of those assumptions differs among subjects.

            IMO, using FIP is a poor way to estimate value…doing so is the equivalent of regressing BABIP, BB rates, K rates, and HR/FB rates for hitters before calculating WAR, which isn’t done for good reason.

          • LazerTown 1 year ago

            FIP has the best correlation, but isn’t always the best way to judge their year. 1.8 WAR sounds pretty bad, but Lohse gave 200 innings of 3.35 era ball. He had a great season, and was quite a bit better than 1.8 wins. WAR is a good general stat that encompasses everything, but some players do not stay true to FIP.

        • sunshipballoons 1 year ago

          That’s obviously not true about the A’s: Scott Kazmir.

      • LazerTown 1 year ago

        Not always though. Not all GM’s have huge job security. Even if the value of that draft pick is $15M the team won’t see that for 4 years, especially since you don’t lose the top 15 picks. But this only really makes sense for teams on the hump. Really good teams often want the prospects to continue their run, bad teams have no need to improve a few wins, because it just makes their draft pick worse. The value of pushing a team into the playoffs is pretty good, and can be worth the draft pick loss.

    • Bernard Middlebrook 1 year ago

      great post. It is amazing that Boras didn’t learn from last year, when this nearly happened to Rafael Soriano after Boras foolishly had him opt out of $14 million for his last season with NY (and rejected the QO). He got 2/28 very late from the Nats, which was most likely a favor to Boras because he has 6 or 7 clients on that team, including Bryce Harper. The Nats know they’re gonna have to deal with him a lot in the future…. not that doing him a favor will get them any discounts in the future…

    • pft2 1 year ago

      I think his players are pretty happy with him. Did Ok by Choo, Beltran and Ellsbury, and last year he got good deals for guys like Lohse, Bourn and Soriano. Look at what they got paid and what they produced last year. A total of 34 AAV for 9 years for 4.3 WAR produced in 2013. They all signed late.

      Like I said in a previous post, the market changed suddenly after the MLB winter meetings in December. Everyone suddenly tightened the belt for some reason.

      • LazerTown 1 year ago

        Boras doesn’t represent Beltran anymore.

        • pft2 1 year ago

          Yeah, but he helped them out by refusing the Yankees offer to Choo. LOL

  5. FineHamAbounds 1 year ago

    He’s not wrong, although he does embellish it a little. The system does a disservice to these mid-tier guys by assigning a draft pick value that is not equivalent to their talent level.

    • Karkat 1 year ago

      Only because they turned down a one-year offer that was above their talent level. The system would only really do a disservice to someone who was worth a slightly better contract that the QO, but not quite enough more to make up for the draft pick. (Ervin Santana sort of fit that bill this season.)

      • sunshipballoons 1 year ago

        You prove FineHam’s point. Mid-tier players are left with two choices: accept more than they are worth, but only get a one year deal, or accept much less than they are worth (or possibly accept nothing) by looking for a longer term deal. That is a disservice, where non-restricted FAs have, you know, actual free agency with choices.

        • chicothekid 1 year ago

          Yeah, I’d hate getting paid more than I was worth. That must be awful. What a dilemma.

  6. Mike 1 year ago

    How about creating a FA deadline. If you don’t sign before Opening Day, then you’ll have to miss the season.

    • DMoney1184 1 year ago

      Can’t see the Player’s Union agreeing to that.

  7. Karkat 1 year ago

    Was there this much whining about the old Type A designation? I feel like there wasn’t.

    • Metsfan93 1 year ago

      The game changes; teams actually care more about their draft picks these days. Plus, Garza, Nolasco might’ve qualified as Type A’s back then, since midseason trades didn’t affect offering arbitration. Then, the top 15 worst records were protected, instead of top-ten picks.

    • Derpy 1 year ago

      Signing a type A free agent didn’t reduce your draft bonus pool by 35%. Mostly because there weren’t bonus pools or slot bonuses. The slot money is the issue, not the pick.

    • LazerTown 1 year ago

      Draft pool slotting system makes the picks more valuable. Also teams that lost players could get the 2 picks. Also made it easier on players because it was arbitration. They weren’t likely to get $14MM, so it made it easier for them to accept that lesser offer.

      There have been several restrictions on teams getting talent, and now they want an international draft.

    • sunshipballoons 1 year ago

      Also, under the old system, you were only giving up a draft pick if you got a Type A guy, which means you’re only giving up picks for top 20% guys. Now, you end up with RFAs who are not as good, and those guys have to give up free agency to get at least their market value (i.e., by accepting the qualifying offer).

  8. pft2 1 year ago

    The market changed significantly after the MLB winter meetings in December. Think about that. There were articles speculating that Drew would get upwards of 3/40.

  9. thwacker 1 year ago

    9 million for one year just aint enough. Soon a hot dog will be $15. Enjoy your time sitting on the Red Sox bench, Drew.

    • sunshipballoons 1 year ago

      Player salaries do not affect hot dog prices. Owners will always try to sell hot dogs for an amount that maximizes [price per hot dog] x [hot dogs sold].

  10. jimfetterolf 1 year ago

    Took a look at Drew on fangraphs and the thing that jumps out is his inconsistency. Not sure anyone will go a three year deal on him and he might be surprised at how low the offers are for a half year deal. Boras has delusions of grandeur.

    • rich 1 year ago

      He’s actually been a fairly consistent performer in his career except for the two seasons which were impacted by that brutal injury. That injury was so severe it lingered into the next season and he still wasn’t ready to play.

  11. Tommets 1 year ago

    They’re obviously saying this so that someone will sign them.

  12. Eric James 1 year ago

    14 million dollars a year isn’t going to provide stability to drew and his family? Are you kidding me? Just play for the love of the game, play in the best baseball city in the world and take the qualifying offer. It’s still a ton of money.

    • SumatranRatMonkey 1 year ago

      You’re being silly. You and I wouldn’t give up the chance to make an extra $100 doing whatever it is we do. Why should these guys be expected to potentially give up millions? The money is either going to players or it’s going to the owners. I’d rather see it go to the players.

      • Eric James 1 year ago

        Darrell Revis just signed a one year 12 million dollar deal because he has so much confidence in his abilities that he is willing to showcase his talent and sign a contract the following year. No team is going to pay Drew 14 million per year . I do feel bad that Drew took bad advice from his agent though.

        • SumatranRatMonkey 1 year ago

          Dude, no one said Drew was going to get a long term deal with an AAV of 14 million. You do understand that clubs don’t have to sign these guys for that much right? He might have been able to get something like 3/30 though.

          Also, football players are not good for comparisons. Revis doesn’t have to worry about his free agent value being perpetually diminished by qualifying offers like baseball players do.

          • RahZid 1 year ago

            Football players can get the Franchise Tag 3 years in a row. Sure it isn’t perpetual, but a rookie deal + 3 years of tags would take a player past his prime years.

          • Jeff_Todd_MLBTR 1 year ago

            I listened to an NFL agent talk about what it was like dealing with the franchise tag for a premium client. It transfers immense leverage to the team, long before the player is slapped with the tag. The background NFL rules only make things worse.

        • Metsfan93 1 year ago

          Some team paid Jhonny Peralta 13.25 MM per year for four years. I think you underestimate baseball salary inflation.

          • westcoastwhitesox 1 year ago

            Peralta is a better hitter than most SS…I think his payday was pretty typical of the best offensive player at his position going to a team who believes they’ll compete for the World Series in each of the next 4 years.

        • Metsfan93 1 year ago

          Also, you’re seriously using *Darrelle Revis* as an example of someone who put up and shut up when it comes to money? The same player who complained about his contract status twice, got his rookie deal renegotiated into an extension after a hold out, and then got himself traded and earned 16 million dollars? That Darrelle Revis?

        • pft2 1 year ago

          Thats what Drew did last year. It is also what Boras meant by the Ferris Wheel and just facing the same problem next year. You don’t want to be on the Ferris Wheel when it stops because then you get nothing.

          People were saying the same thing about Lohse last year and he did all right. Only player who did not was Cruz, but he was coming off a PED suspension, can’t hit away from Arlingtons hitters park and can’t play defense, so he definitely should have taken the QO

        • chicothekid 1 year ago

          Absolutely NO reason to feel bad for Drew here at all. We all know the reputation that Boras has, so you better believe the players know it as well. So who did Drew want for his agent? He wanted Boras. He is getting exactly what he deserves. I just wish it happened to all of Boras’ clients.

    • Metsfan93 1 year ago

      Or, attempt to experience free agency and potentially go for one last payday. 14 MM will certainly provide financial stability for his family for the foreseeable ever, but that’s not the only variable. The entire point of free agency is that Drew should be allowed to go wherever he wants, as long as the team has a need and is willing to meet his demands. Perhaps he simply didn’t want to stay in a city where he clearly wasn’t wanted by the team (this has been evidenced of late by the lack of Drew-to-Boston rumors, and the Xander/WMB tandem)

      • Eric James 1 year ago

        The sox GM liked Drew so much that he offered him the chance to make more money than Lester, Brady or Pedoria make in a single year. I bet Drew would be the first one to admit to you that he regrets not signing the initial offer with Boston. Drew thinks that he is a top 5 shortstop in the league which simply isn’t true and the fact that he hasn’t been to spring training is proof of that.

        • Metsfan93 1 year ago

          Where did Stephen Drew ever say he was a top five shortstop in Major League Baseball? Because he turned down a qualifying offer instead opting to use his right, as someone with six plus years of service time and no 2014 contract, to sell his services to the team he wants to go to?
          I fully believe the Red Sox only offered it because he has Scott Boras as an agent and knew he would decline it to at least test the market. They have Xander and want him as their shortstop. Sure, he could move to third, but that isn’t optimal for his development.
          Tom Brady has made well more than 14 MM in a single season, and will continue to do so in 2014 once his signing bonus payment is factored in. Base salary means nothing there.

          Stephen Drew would’ve been in line for a Rollins-esque (4/44 with vesting option, two years outdated) to Peralta-esque contract without draft pick compensation tying him down. He’s a very good player but I think the overarching issue is that 14 MM really just isn’t an inconvenience for NY or Boston to offer and essentially destroy Drew’s market. There’s probably an underlying reason why Burnett claimed Pirate-or-retire until that wasn’t the case.

    • pft2 1 year ago

      He already has that, his lifetime earnings are over 30 million. However, players are competitive, and with the Red Sox if he accepted it he would have been in danger of being a bench player or playing out of position which would have hurt his market value in 2015, or being traded to a team he did not like in June since the Red Sox did not really want him for 14 million.

      Players also have responsibility to other players to take the best deal they can get. All deals get used as comps for arb hearings and in negotiations with other free agents

      Its strange fans have so much of a problem with freedom of an employee to choose his employer and accept a defacto tax that employees must pay to work for another company who will pay them more. Very Unamerican

      • Eric James 1 year ago

        Most teams like a versatile infielder and if drew played some games at second base or third that would improve his value. I like your point about using drew as trade bait at the deadline, but if drew is truly in it for the money he would’ve taken the qualifying offer and he wouldn’t be traded because he is an amazing utility player if he gets benched. I have a problem with drew rejecting 14 million because he had two hits in the 6 game long World Series, one of which should be considered as an error. Owners are always going to make more money than the players. In terms of America Drew should take the best deal that is offered to him All that drew offers is a good glove and a medium bar. I believe that boeharts has a better bar than him. There are plenty of shortstops that are good at fielding and honestly don’t defend boras by hiding behind employees over corporations. This is baseball the highest paying sport in the world so don’t drum up sympathy for players. Do you feel sorry that Drew is getting offered 14 million for playing baseball in nice weather from April to possible the end of October? I feel terribly for cano and arod. Tough lives.

        • Yankees420 1 year ago

          You really don’t seem to be comprehending the issue here. Drew and (mainly) his agent wanted to test the free agent market. That is something that as a player in MLB, he has earned the right to do. The Red Sox have to right to offer him the QO, which he must reject in order to actually test the free agent market. Drew and Boras were obviously not interested in a 1 year deal (which is understandable, seeing as he just played on a 1 year deal and is coming off a solid season) and for Drew to think he could get a guarantee higher than 14MM (even at a lower AAV) was not an outlandish thought at the start of the free agency.

          Also, the fact that baseball is an extremely high paying job should have zero to do with the ethics or ‘rightness’ of Drew’s and Boras’s actions. And choosing Cano and A-Rod as comps was a terrible choice. A-Rod has signed two 10 year deals and Cano just signed one himself, Those two received the long-term security that Drew wishes he could obtain.

  13. Joe Manis 1 year ago

    Does anybody know what Morlaes asking price is?

  14. Derpy 1 year ago

    Didn’t Drew allegedly turn down several multiyear deals from, among others, the Mets and Yankees? I seem to remember him demanding an opt out clause from the Mets. Maybe it really is Boras and Drew who messed up his off season, and not everyone else. Maybe they should be pointing the finger at themselves.

    • Federal League 1 year ago

      Unless it’s been confirmed that he turned down deals, and unless we know the hard figures, it’s difficult to fault Drew.

      • Derpy 1 year ago

        I’ve heard he was offered 2 years, 20 million from the Mets. Drew countered with an opt out clause after the first year, and the Mets left the negotiation table. 2 years at 20 million sound a lot better than 0 years at 0 million.

        • LazerTown 1 year ago

          But $20MM/2 is pretty bad offer. Only 2 years of security, and $6M over the QO for a 2nd season, and they don’t want to give an opt out?

          • mikefichera 1 year ago

            Its only a bad offer…if there is ANOTHER offer. There isn’t.

          • LazerTown 1 year ago

            But he started with the $14M offer, and was riding under the assumption that he could do better. He had no reason to take that offer as stated, he should be able to do better.

          • mikefichera 1 year ago

            Mets wanted Peralta at the start of the off-season, they thought he would be undervalued and better fit their system, unfortunately the Cardinals thought the same. The Mets don’t really like Drew. He isn’t what they need. They can get serviceable hitting and defense internal or trade, as almost any other major league team can.

          • Derpy 1 year ago

            Asking for an opt out in a 2 year deal is just offensive. Asking for an easy to reach option is a negotiation, asking for an opt out is intentionally offending the organization. And considering the Mets are one of the very, very, very limiting landing spots for Drew, that probably wasn’t a great strategy.

      • Riaaaaaa 1 year ago

        Joel Sherman confirmed it a while ago.

  15. Colin Christopher 1 year ago

    This “ferris wheel of multiple qualifying offers” that Boras speaks of sounds like the most terrifying ride on the planet. I can’t imagine the courage it must take to face down a 1-year, $14M contract every year.

    • Crucisnh 1 year ago

      Players want the security of the longer term contract. If such a player gets severely injured while on one of these QO 1 yr deals, you can write off any chance of them getting a decent contract the next year.

      Much as I’m no fan of the MLBPA, I think that they’d be nuts to agree to anything like the qualifying offer system in the next basic agreement with MLB. That is, anything that reduces a player’s chances of getting a decent contract. A mid-range player’s free agency value shouldn’t be affected by the presence of something like qualifying offer or turning down arbitration (like in the previous basic agreement). There’s something wrong when a player like Jarrod Saltelmacchia can get a deal without much trouble, but Stephen Drew is in contract limbo.

      • LazerTown 1 year ago

        Depends how many players it actually affects. It is something for them to look for, but it really only affects a small number of free agents.

    • sunshipballoons 1 year ago

      Okay, Colin– so you’d be down to take a job where there was a really high chance you’d have to move to a different city every year? Even if you had another option of taking a job where you could put down roots? What if you had kids?

      • Colin Christopher 1 year ago

        If you’re taking the qualifying offer your team makes you every year, you’re not moving. And even if you had to move a few times in your career, that’s really not outside the norm of what the average American has to do in their career…except that you’re making more in one baseball season than most Americans make in their entire lives. So, yes, I’d be down to take that job.

        • sunshipballoons 1 year ago

          If you could be assured that your team would make a qualifying offer every year, sure. But you have no idea what each year is going to bring. most people like job security, and the security to not have to move to another city. Most Americans do not have to move cities because of a job (though many choose to look for jobs in different cities).

      • Colin Christopher 10 months ago

        If I knew my career was only going to last 8-10 years, and each year I was going to make $14 million dollars? Absolutely. These guys know the score when they accept a professional contract. They have the option of choosing a career with a more “stable” lifestyle if that’s what they want.

    • sunshipballoons 1 year ago

      Okay, Colin– so you’d be down to take a job where there was a really high chance you’d have to move to a different city every year? Even if you had another option of taking a job where you could put down roots? What if you had kids?

    • michael T 1 year ago

      Next year it will be 15 million. Enough money to live well the rest of your life.

  16. Lefty_Orioles_Fan 1 year ago

    Boras feels that the qualifying offer system has “basically prevented
    them from free agency,” opining that the system has instead placed both
    players “in jail.”

    They put themselves in jail and it also prevented other teams for overpaying for either of them. I mean 14 million dollars is a lot of money to turn down!

  17. rtwngr 1 year ago

    The teams response to the rule doesn’t seem rational to me. The odds of any draft pick achieving the level Drew plays at are long. Drew is a known quantity, a season plus removed from serious injury, and still relatively young. I think it’s the draft pick plus dealing with Boras that’s holding him back. One or the other would be overcome but not both.

  18. westcoastwhitesox 1 year ago

    Well done, Steve Adams! Your first line about Cruz & Santana “…their free agent
    markets were significantly weighed down by their rejection of qualifying
    offers…” is refreshing. The angle most writers have been using so far is “…their free agent markets were significantly weighed down by draft pick compensation”.

    The hot topic is of course the draft pick compensation, but the players had to reject the QO to get in this conversation we’re having now.

    • Jeff_Todd_MLBTR 1 year ago

      Your implicit charge of some hidden bias among “most MLBTR authors” is strange. For one thing, it is the draft compensation that is most immediately weighing down the player’s market. That, in turn, was caused by their decision to turn down the QO, which was in turn caused by some combination of their original team’s decision to offer them the QO, their good play on the field, and the decision of everyone to create the QO system.

      For another, you (like many others) seem to misunderstand why this is something that is being talked about. It isn’t about players vs teams, and the overall balance between them. It is about whether a few specific players do (and, if so, should) bear a disproportionate burden under the system. (And, on the other side of things, how the system impacts competitive balance.)

      I seriously do not understand the “greedy player” narrative here. If you had an opportunity (quite possibly, only once) to land a deal that gave you job security, let you set your personal priorities (home, family, etc), and the like, you’d probably not be keen on accepting whatever analogous qualifying offer you might get from your employer. And you would clearly be disappointed if, in turn, your decision not to accept that specific offer hampered your ability to land with another employer and situation.

      EDIT

      I see you edited to add the last sentence, so perhaps I took your comment too harshly. It is perfectly valid to raise the point that players have to turn down the offer, but I would disagree that I (or anyone else) have presented things in a way that ignores that. Fact is, these specific players are just dealing with the system, and whether or not their decisions were “correct” in some sense does not really change the debate over the merits of that system.

  19. Ruben_Tomorrow 1 year ago

    And what if they aren’t signed by June? Then what are they going to do? Turn into a pumpkin?

    • Metsfan93 1 year ago

      not have draft pick compensation attached to them anymore?

    • Jeff_Todd_MLBTR 1 year ago

      “could hold out until after the June amateur draft to do so (after which the draft compensation will no longer apply)”

      • Jason 1 year ago

        Quick question though, why would holding out until after the draft actually help them in any way? Waiting until June makes the FA miss 25-30ish % of the season, meaning that even if a team paid higher thanks to the lack of draft pick compensation and gave 20 million, a value I think neither Drew nor Morales is worth, the player only receives only around 14 million in the end. (Excuse me for that awful sentence, couldn’t quite make it more concise without losing what I wanted to say)

        • Jeff_Todd_MLBTR 1 year ago

          Yeah, I actually mentioned this in the post where Stringfellow and Boras were first quoted on the topic. I can see the strategy possibly making sense for a guy who thinks he’s going to get a longer deal and just needs to wait for it. Shorter the outlook, less it makes sense, b/c they are missing earning capacity.

          Of course, someone made a great point — forget where, maybe comments in a fangraphs post — that at some point, a player may be better off waiting without playing rather than playing all year for a lesser rate. Say Cruz waits til mid-season to sign, when injuries, wear-and-tear, and down years can increase trade value. Isn’t it possible he still gets a deal that ultimately pays him $8MM (or close enough to it), but he only has to play half the year (thus avoiding risk of injury and decline)? Now, these guys are baseball players, and may really not want to do that — seemed that was the case for Santana — but it’s interesting nonetheless.

          • Jason 1 year ago

            Doesn’t that seem a little short sighted for a player to wait though? Of course, the injury factor is a very good point that I hadn’t even thought of, but at the same time, say any of these FA could stay healthy for the year after signing before Opening day. Wouldn’t that be a dramatically more appealing FA for the 2015 offseason compared to a player who only played a part of the previous season?

          • Jeff_Todd_MLBTR 1 year ago

            Well, they could just wait until after Opening Day to avoid the possibility of a QO next year. If they waited all the way til after the June draft, they’d do both that and shed this year’s compensation.

            I’d think that a half season or so of performance would be plenty to set themselves up for the market the next year. Look at Brian Wilson — landed a $19MM guarantee (less than Joe Nathan, but a better deal b/c he has a player option) after throwing less than 20 innings (postseason included). And he was a reliever coming back from a second TJ surgery!

          • Derpy 1 year ago

            I am a team at the trade deadline. I am in the post season hunt, I am doing very well in the standings, I feel I am very competitive, and I have pieces to move to help my team win this year. But my shortstop isn’t there. I’m not happy. He rolled his ankle in April, missed two months, and hasn’t played well since he got off the DL.

            I see a few guys on the trade block. I have pieces to get them. I see Drew is still a free agent, but he hasn’t played a game since October. I need to win NOW. Who do you think I’m going to pick?

          • Jeff_Todd_MLBTR 1 year ago

            I’m not advocating that these guys will make out better by using this strategy, just pointing out ways in which it could be viable. Ultimately, I think it’s a high-risk ploy, but then again so is waiting out the market in the first place.

            On your points, though:

            Will there really be an attractive trade target you can actually get? Maybe a guy like Hardy or Cabrera is made available, but are those two teams going to give up if they are within shouting distance of the postseason? Are you going to give up more in future talent than the draft pick those teams will get when they make those guys a QO? (And, if so, maybe you could have just signed Drew in the first place.)

            Remember also, the draft is June 5-7, trade deadline is July 31. So there is some time in there for these guys to sign, get up to speed, and have impact sooner than most trade acquisitions can.

          • Derpy 1 year ago

            How about a guy like Nick Franklin? I in no way think he will ever be a good defensive shortstop, I’m not even sure he is good at second, but he is available to the highest bidder unless Miller gets injured. As a former top 100 prospect who should certainly be able to hit at the major league level, and potentially hit very well, a reasonable price could make him a good catch for a team.

        • Jeff_Todd_MLBTR 1 year ago

          I think this is a situation where it might make sense for strategic/leverage reasons to put it out there strongly, though. I think Tim was the one who raised the point that there could be added impetus for the QO-offering team to re-sign a guy if they are serious about this strategy, since then they wouldn’t get their compensation pick. It could also just be a way to try to light a fire under the market and get something going.

  20. Federal League 1 year ago

    If you’re a team that has a protected pick, chances are your team is not one player away from improving. If you’ve got a pick in that next tier, chances are you feel like you can get a pretty good player in the draft and you aren’t going to be interested in forfeiting it for slightly above average players on the wrong side of 30.

    So the market basically shrinks to teams with low picks who are willing to give them up, and if they don’t have a need at your position, you’re kind of out of luck. Elite level players aren’t affected because the odds of a team getting a better player for the future in the draft aren’t likely. Guys who were just good/bad enough to make their former team wary about committing a qualifying offer to them [like Saltalamacchia] actually end up in a better position.

    • Metsfan93 1 year ago

      The one player away from improving might not matter if you’re close and sign them long, long-term, like if Houston had signed Ellsbury. All that matters is that they’ll still be pre-decline and able to produce when the other players materialize.

      • Federal League 1 year ago

        I see what you’re saying, but judging from the dollar amount he ended up signing for, I don’t think Ellsbury is a good comp here.

      • stl_cards16 1 year ago

        Why sign a big money player when you’re 3 years from contending? Wait until you are ready to contend and then sign free-agents to fill in the holes. The player will be further from decline so he can help for multiple seasons.

        • Metsfan93 1 year ago

          Because that player you wanted for 2016 might not be available in 2016 but is available right now?

  21. Ethan Purdy 1 year ago

    A big part of the problem with the QO is that teams are grossly overvaluing draft picks.

    • michael T 1 year ago

      I think the 14 million qualifying offer is making players think they are worth 14 million a year. When they are worth maybe 10.

  22. gson 1 year ago

    Two issues in play…
    1. To believe the only reason a player has not signed being due to draft pick compensation is arrogance personified.
    2. Every day that goes by now costs Scot Boras’ client money out of their pocket.

    • pft2 1 year ago

      Players don’t get their paychecks until the season starts. Has not cost them a penny so far, and if they make an extra 5 million over the next 3 years due to sitting out 3 months, they won’t lose a penny

      • nepp 1 year ago

        I believe they can elect to get their paycheck year-round if they so elect to do so. Its up to them and the team to do it that way if they want instead of just getting paid during the season. It’s obviously the same amount overall, just in a different amount of payments.

  23. Eric James 1 year ago

    My point with the Revis example is that he doesn’t care about contract security. His previous $96 million contact had no guaranteed money involved. Revis knows that he is the best and is willing to go on the field and compete for a championship. Instead Drew thinks he can get a better offer from the Mets? No wonder he wanted an opt out clause for the Mets because they don’t win period.

  24. Crucisnh 1 year ago

    Teams can value their draft picks however they want.

    • pft2 1 year ago

      Bud probably tells them how to value them.

      • stl_cards16 1 year ago

        I wouldn’t give Bud that much credit. Teams that value their picks/prospects are generally successful over longer periods..

        • pft2 1 year ago

          Teams that only value their picks and do not exploit the free agent market are generally unsuccessful for longer periods. The draft in baseball outside the top 10 picks is nothing more than a lottery. Only 15% of 1st round picks after 15 have 10 WAR careers, and only 5% are league average or better.

  25. Vegandork 1 year ago

    I don’t think the picks are the issue.

    Morales is old, slow, can’t field any position, and a regression candidate. He’s not a good choice for a multi-year contract, even from a club needing a DH.

    Drew is old and a negative value on offense. He’s not a good choice for a multi-year contract, he’s essentially a stop-gap player.

    A one year deal? Sure. But even their qualifying offer value is too high for what they would provide. The issue isn’t the draft pick loss. The issue is the gross overvaluation of players who normally would have an extremely limited market. Both of these players should have accepted the qualifying offers and ran with them. It’s not other teams’ fault they’re too incompetent to realize it.

    • Crucisnh 1 year ago

      I think that you’re very, very wrong. The picks are critical in their situations. Your description of Morales is probably accurate, though I wouldn’t really say that Drew’s a negative value offensive player. The picks matter because teams are valuing them at somewhere around $4M or so. And for one of these mid range players, teams want the players to reduce their salary demands to compensate the team for the loss of the pick. And the players/agents often aren’t willing to accept that requirement… which is why the QO system is so unfair to mid range players. High end elite players aren’t being hurt by the QO system. It’s the mid range players who are hurt.

      • Vegandork 1 year ago

        According to most analytics, Drew is indeed a negative offensive player. I think you’re overvaluing these players immensely if you think they’re middle tier. Most teams have internal DH options that could perform comparable to Morales, and most teams have internal middle infielders that are defensive players who provide about as much value on offense as Drew does. Finding a team that has a need without those internal options would not be easy. That’s what these guys are running into. Look at the list of interested teams (and I mean teams that even remotely would have a need)…it’s really only their original teams (why they got the qualifying offer). The only other team ever even remotely interested was the Mets (in Drew), but they’re not paying an old defensive specialist for a three year deal at 7 figures per. That would be foolish, considering they won’t be competing in that time frame. If not the Mets or Boston, then who for Drew? I bet I could find a comparable in house option. If not Seattle for Morales, then who? Most teams are set at DH.

      • Vegandork 1 year ago

        According to most analytics, Drew is indeed a negative offensive player. I think you’re overvaluing these players immensely if you think they’re middle tier. Most teams have internal DH options that could perform comparable to Morales, and most teams have internal middle infielders that are defensive players who provide about as much value on offense as Drew does. Finding a team that has a need without those internal options would not be easy. That’s what these guys are running into. Look at the list of interested teams (and I mean teams that even remotely would have a need)…it’s really only their original teams (why they got the qualifying offer). The only other team ever even remotely interested was the Mets (in Drew), but they’re not paying an old defensive specialist for a three year deal at 7 figures per. That would be foolish, considering they won’t be competing in that time frame. If not the Mets or Boston, then who for Drew? I bet I could find a comparable in house option. If not Seattle for Morales, then who? Most teams are set at DH.

      • westcoastwhitesox 1 year ago

        Very well said, Crucisnh

  26. westcoastwhitesox 1 year ago

    I think it’s dumb to compare Jhonny Peralta and Stephen Drew. Peralta was signed for top dollar because he was the best offensive SS available. If world series contending team has a vacant spot in their infield and can fill it with a legitimate offensive threat, they’ll pay top dollar and get that guy ASAP. I don’t know much about Drew’s skills, but I don’t think teams saw him as a top dollar/sign him ASAP kind of player.

    Peralta will be a fine 3B or 1B at the end of his contract if he becomes a defensive liability at SS.

    • pft2 1 year ago

      Drew actually outhit him in 2012 when Peralta put up an 84 OPS+, and he outhit him last year against RHPers which are 70% of all pitchers. Peralta has been very inconsistent and you seem to ignore the possibility is 2 good years in the last 7 were PED enhanced years. How Perlata hits w/o PED’s now that he has a big payday and has more to risk by getting caught is the big question

  27. Shawn Baublitz 1 year ago

    Pretty sure StL is kicking themselves for overpaying so early in the off-season.

    • stl_cards16 1 year ago

      I don’t think so. They got the guy they wanted and at a price that’s not keeping them frommaking any other moves. Drew is a fine SS, but the Cardinals wanted to add offense. Peralta was the only guy available to do that.

      • Federal League 1 year ago

        Career-wise, both players have put up extremely similar lines.

        • PaperLions 1 year ago

          Somewhat similar, but Peralta has been better at the plate, better in the field, and more durable. Plus, they preferred a RH bat to balance out the lineup. The market for Peralta seemed pretty robust, considering that some teams said they offered 4 year/$50M and were told they weren’t in the running.

        • stl_cards16 1 year ago

          Career-wise doesn’t matter. I don’t think anyone believes Drew will out-perform Peralta at the plate over the next four years. Peralta was the only player available at a position of need that could significantly upgrade the offense. The Cardinals signed him, I really doubt there’s any regrets.

          • Federal League 1 year ago

            Is Jhonny going to maintain access to his secret sauce?

      • Federal League 1 year ago

        Career-wise, both players have put up extremely similar lines.

      • pft2 1 year ago

        Drew hits as well as Perlata gainst 70% of pitchers (RHP’ers), even better. With Peralta you have to wonder how PED’s helped him. In 5 of the last 7 years he has been a below average hitter. Strong 2013 and 2011 and awful 2012. Very inconsistent.

  28. nepp 1 year ago

    Maybe, just maybe, Boras overplayed his hand early on and GMs moved on to other players rather than play his game. Just maybe.

    • Jeff_Todd_MLBTR 1 year ago

      There are definitely lots of factors at play here, many of which are very difficult to have information on at all, let alone properly analyze. It isn’t all about the draft compensation.

      • nepp 1 year ago

        Very true…I dont think the draft pick is the killer that some are making it out to be. It’s definitely dragging them down a bit but I tend to think, given Boras’ track record, that he went a bit too high-risk and its burning his clients.

        • Jeff_Todd_MLBTR 1 year ago

          I actually think it can be a dagger, it’s just that it’s very tough to unpack everything, and is not always the key factor. The market is always changing, and teams will all have different priorities. Could be that the QO makes you the guy without a chair when the music stops; could be that it takes away a few possible bidders and prevents you from driving your value up with multiple auction participants.

          • nepp 1 year ago

            I think Drew and Morales were idiots for not accepting the QO personally. Both the BoSox and Mariners were probably ecstatic that they didn’t…and neither probably would have risked making the QO if not for Boras.

          • pft2 1 year ago

            Not a single player in history (short one I admit) has ever accepted a QO, so I doubt its all about Boras.

            There are some teams who won’t do business with Boras, but at the end of the day he usually comes through which is why players use him..

          • nepp 1 year ago

            Its only been a couple years now though…pretty small sample size really. I dont think there are any teams that won’t do business with Boras. I tend to think that those teams both were well aware of Boras’ stance on FA and thus pretty much knew that offering that player a QO was a no-risk scenario…

            Boras is a ridiculously good agent, probably the best in baseball but he is fairly predictable in his methodology.

          • Mike1L 1 year ago

            That’s an interesting point; that the QO reduces the amount of bidders and, by doing so, lowers the price. It may also reduce the urgency of those teams who are interested.

  29. nepp 1 year ago

    Maybe, just maybe, Boras overplayed his hand early on and GMs moved on to other players rather than play his game. Just maybe.

  30. ice_hawk10 1 year ago

    The point about Peralta pretty much nullifies most of what Boras is saying. Teams just dont like Drew that much, and if you look under the surface there’s good reason why. His batted ball profile is a little scary – tonnes of flyballs combined with grounders to the pull side and his strikeout rate has been climbing for years now. If he were a power hitter those things might be ok, but as it is it seems like he may be on the cusp of substantial decline. He also rates below average on the basepaths and has had some trouble staying on the field in the past.

    Defense is the only thing he really has going for him, and he’s only good but not great in that category.

    Sure the QO has something to do with the lack of interest, but he’s a good but not great player in his decline phase. Those kind of players aren’t locks to get 3-4 year deals.

    • pft2 1 year ago

      His batted ball profile looks great at Yankee Stadium, and it did not hurt him at Fenway which is a tough park for LHB’ers who hit FN to RF and CF. He crushes RHP’ers. It was not too long ago that he was one of the best hitting SS in the game. That ankle injury set him back a bit though, but he is only 31 and seems fully recovered

      He was ranked 5th-8th among all SS last year depending on the metric

  31. xHoratiox 1 year ago

    This should not be a large issue. The players lose security with a one-year deal, yes. However, let’s not forgot the amount of money they are declining for more security, can easily guarantee an entire lifetime of doing whatever you want, WITH YOUR FAMILY, for the rest of your life, at 30 years old…Many would be happy for this chance.

    • Federal League 1 year ago

      It’s not about whether the money is enough to satisfy someone or whether it’s enough to take care of their family. It’s about not really having a free market to explore potential value.

  32. Bill Smith 1 year ago

    I’d probably be willing to wait until June too, if I had no choice.

  33. Adam Bomb 1 year ago

    Accepting the only offer you’ve got from the team you just won the World Series with vs. waiting it out and possibly never signing with a team. Sounds like a no brainer but then again when you’re combining a member of the Drew family with Scott Boras, you’re dealing with the unknown.

  34. Adam Bomb 1 year ago

    Accepting the only offer you’ve got from the team you just won the World Series with vs. waiting it out and possibly never signing with a team. Sounds like a no brainer but then again when you’re combining a member of the Drew family with Scott Boras, you’re dealing with the unknown.

  35. Anthony Hughes 1 year ago

    I agree with a lot of what Boras is saying, but you have to look at each case on an individual basis. So let’s look at these two players. Stephen Drew is made of glass, and Morales simply isn’t worth close to $14.1MM a year because he can’t play the field (effectively) and while he’s a solid bat, it’s not like he’s an exceptional bat. I think Drew is probably worth $15MM a year by today’s standards, but because he’s so injury-prone, I can see why a team wouldn’t want to give him multiple years at such an AAV. As for Morales, it’s tough to see him being worth anything more than $10MM a year, and that might be generous, so a 1 year pact for $14.1MM is him being ahead of the game, as far as I’m concerned. He’s a guy that DEFINITELY should’ve taken the qualifying offer.

    • Federal League 1 year ago

      Made of glass? He played in at least 135 games four seasons in a row before suffering a potentially career threatening foot injury.

      • Anthony Hughes 1 year ago

        That was 4 years ago. Things change. He played in 86 games in ’11, 79 in ’12, and the Red Sox managed to get 124 out of him last season. If you are trying to argue that he’s a durable player, sorry, you’re going to lose that argument. That would be like arguing that Matt Kemp is durable because he once had a huge consecutive games streak. Things change.

  36. sourbob 1 year ago

    The Players Association should start a rumor that they have an agreement that ALL players who make less than the qualifying offer in 2014 will accept the QO at the end of the year. It doesn’t even need to be true, just convincing, and the QO offers will dry up and the problem will solve itself.

    • nepp 1 year ago

      I believe that would be collusion…and they’d pay big time for that.

      • pft2 1 year ago

        No, that’s only something the owners do, and they have been caught many times now. I do think more players will be receptive to taking the QO as a result of suspected collusion with regard to the inflated value of a draft pick, so there may be fewer QO

        • nepp 1 year ago

          The players all getting together like that to circumvent the QO aspect of the CBA would be the very definition of “colluding” and is thus collusion. Neither side can manipulate a CBA like that. If you are old enough to remember the 1980s, collusion by the owneres to tamp down FA prices nearly killed the game…hell, a big part of why we even had expansion to Miami and Tampa was to help pay the owners’ legal fees after that idiocy.

  37. Rick M 1 year ago

    If someone gets desperate over injuries they’ll both have a slot. Worked for Santana. Now Boras can wait and hope someone besides a client goes long term DL.

  38. LazerTown 1 year ago

    Is actually good negotiation by Boras. He really doesn’t want his clients to sit out until June, but, but he is letting it be known that HIS clients will not be accepting lesser offers like Cruz and Morales. Cruz’s agent did an atrocious job. Telling the player to turn it down, and then getting almost half, so he can be a 34 year old free agent.

    • pft2 1 year ago

      I didn’t realize Morales signed?

      Cruz probably should have taken the QO although another PED user in Peralta signed a good deal. Like I said, the market changed after the Dec meetings.

  39. Teufelshunde4 1 year ago

    Basically the QO prevented older Boras clients who demanded multi year high aav deals those contracts. So it saved teams from over paying for Boras clients.

  40. Strugz 1 year ago

    He does have a point that it can be cyclical. At least in football the franchise tag can only be played a couple times on one player.

    • pft2 1 year ago

      Especially in a case like Drew where he signed with the Red Sox for only 1 year w/o any player development costs to recoup. Why would the Red Sox need compensation? They paid 10 million for 20 million dollars in value (Fan Graphs still using an outdated 5 million per WAR even though their writers say its 6 million per WAR)

  41. section 34 1 year ago

    Peralta and Drew are not similar. Peralta can hit, enough to play 3B or LF. Drew is tremendously overrated by fans right now because he played for the Red Sox, but he’s an average hitter and an average fielder. This has value, to be sure, but not as much as Drew or Boras anticipated. With no qualifying offer attached, Drew didn’t get a multi-year contract last year. The A’s didn’t even exercise their half of a mutual option at 1 year, $10 million.

    Drew will get offers after June 1, but if he was worth a multi year, $20+ million contract, he’d have that offer already. He’s OK, but he’s simply not that good.

    Ditto Morales, a decent DH who can’t run or play the field. Multi-year contract? Hah.

    • pft2 1 year ago

      I saw him play almost every game last year. Easily the best SS the Red Sox have had the last 10 years. Plus defense and crushed RHP’ers. Put up a 3.4 WAR valued at 20 million based on todays market of 6 million per WAR. He is only 31 and has had only 1 significant injury that spanned 2 years. Oakland is a cheap team and Drew was still suffering the effects of his ankle injury when he played with them. The Red Sox offered him a QO which means they would not have minded much if he accepted it, and they paid him 9.5 million for 1 year coming off 2 bad years due to the ankle. So if Drews value is 1/14 to them after a great year, why would he not be able to get a 3/30 somewhere? The average draft pick is worth only 5-8 million, and there are a bunch of teams who would only be giving up a 2nd or 3rd round pick which is worth much less

      • nepp 1 year ago

        Problems: He’s also a middle IF on the wrong side of 30 with fairly serious injury concerns who basically had a career year out of no where. Historically, middle IFs don’t age all that well and his value plummets if you ever have to move him off SS.

        That’s the “glass is half empty” view that some GMs likely had of him. I’m not saying I agree with it 100% but I can see their hesitation to go long-term on him as a result.

    • Benny 1 year ago

      “Peralta and Drew are not similar. Peralta can hit, enough to play 3B or LF.”

      Drew – .264/.329/.435/.764

      Peralta – .268/.330/.425/.755

      Take note that Peralta has the help of PEDS, while Drew doesn’t. Drew is also better defensively.

      • nepp 1 year ago

        He’s probably thinking more about this:
        OPS+ Last 3 Years:
        Peralta: 107
        Drew: 97

        Granted, 2 of those years were Drew’s worst as a pro but that lack of a healthy track record hurts him too.

        • Benny 1 year ago

          Drew suffered injuries throughout those years, and Peralta’s injury-free years can be attributed to PEDs.

  42. Mike1L 1 year ago

    I doubt Boras helped Drew at all when he started insisting on an opt out
    after one year. That amplified the cost of the pick, because the
    signing team would be committed long term if Drew got hurt. lose a pick,
    and would run the risk of the opt out of Drew played well. Morales,
    according to an earlier MLBTR report, was asking $16M multi-year. I will
    grant that the QO hurt Drew and Morales, but I think both of them were
    more damaged by an agent who may have pushed the envelope.

    • pft2 1 year ago

      Boras looked to the optout to counter the low AAV he was being offered. His preference was a straight 3-4 year deal at a reasonable AAV (not necessarily 14 million).

      Boras pushed the envelope on Ellsbury, and got it, nobody expected Ellsbury to get Carl Crawford money or better.

      Like I said, something changed with the market after the winter meetings in early December. Before that there were some sweetheart deals like Peralta and Granderson and then it dried up except for Yankees deals

      • Mike1L 1 year ago

        Whatever Boras’ reasons for the opt-out, they raised the price substantially to the buyer. He was reacting to the fact that Drew wasn’t getting the offers and was trying to find value elsewhere. The buyers weren’t willing to pay the extra price of the opt-out. Most of the top talent was signed early. Drew just wasn’t quite in the class. He’s not a game-changer, more a solid complimentary player who has maximum value on a team like the Red Sox.

        • pft2 1 year ago

          Red Sox won a championship precisely because they signed 7 complementary players, one of which was Drew.

          We don’t know precisely how these negotiations go, the opt-out likely was an option instead of a hard demand, I am sure Boras would prefer a fixed number of years at a fair AAV.

          90% of free agents are simply complementary players and most of them have got decent deals even with draft pick compensation which has been around for many years

          • Mike1L 1 year ago

            The Red Sox did a fine job, and got some good fortune as well, but that begs the question about Drew. He’s not worth what Peralta was paid (Peralta wasn’t worth it either) and especially not worth it with the pick attached.

  43. Red_Line_9 1 year ago

    Would it be possible in the next CBA to bar players from having the QO designation placed on them in consecutive seasons?

    • nepp 1 year ago

      That would make sense and I could see them arguing for that.

  44. connfyoozed . 1 year ago

    “We’ll sit out half the season! That’ll show them!”

  45. alphabet_soup5 1 year ago

    It would be sad to see those two end up like Jermaine Dye, but I don’t feel bad for them. They are being offered what they are worth, if they don’t want to play in MLB they can walk away.

  46. SportsLover 1 year ago

    I understand that Drew turned down multi-year offers from the Yankees both this year and last year.

    • Jeff_Todd_MLBTR 1 year ago

      There was a report that the Yanks made him a 2 or 3 year offer. Drew was waiting to see if he could get better, and then the team withdrew the offer at some point due to other moves.

      • Benny 1 year ago

        Plus it most likely wasn’t even to play SS.

        • nepp 1 year ago

          You would think that any multi-year deal with the Yankees would pretty obviously be to play SS full-time either at some point this year (if Jeter is ineffective and/or primarily a DH) or 100% full time starting in 2015 once El Capitan is retired. At the time, he probably figured he could either get 4 years guaranteed or a higher AAV from someone. His bad luck that those teams went different ways. Either he or Boras (or both) misread the market.

    • pft2 1 year ago

      According to Joel Sherman they wanted him to play 3B last year on a 1 yr deal. This would have hurt his market value so he took the deal from the Red Sox to play SS

      While he may have had a 2-3 year offer this year from the Yankees, we have no idea how much he was offered. Like I said, there seems to have been a change in the market from early in the season when Peralta could get 4/52 and after early December, and that seems to have caught Boras by surprise

      • nepp 1 year ago

        To be fair, I think that deal caught everyone in baseball including Peralta by surprise. The dangers of having a GM have a bunch of found money (revenue sharing) and very few holes to fill I suppose.

        • pft2 1 year ago

          Yes, plus they were flush from playoff revenue and perhaps not representative of the market.

          Players selling their services is like a homeowner selling their house. Each has a unique product, and only 1 of them to sell. They are not like Wal-Mart pricing a widget to sell more of them, but are looking for that 1 buyer that values them higher than the “market” does.

          If a player or homeowner is lucky, they sell at a premium to the market. This happens quite often in a sellers market when there are more buyers than sellers. Only when there is some obstacle (regulatory, credit shortage, collusion, tax, etc) do sellers have trouble getting a good price in a sellers market.

          In this case its the tax (draft pick) perhaps coupled with a recent higher valuation of the pick adopted by all the teams. If teams arrived at that valuation independently, all is well, if there is a central force behind that higher valuation, that’s an issue for the MLBPA

  47. Jason J. Shaw 1 year ago

    Poor Boras afraid of losing work because of QO’s. Maybe if he hadn’t worked so hard to help jack player prices up to begin with, this system wouldn’t be so necessary.

    • nepp 1 year ago

      LOL…yes, those poor owners are just bleeding money right now. They couldn’t possibly afford to pay these horribly inflated contracts these days.

      • Jason J. Shaw 1 year ago

        What blows my mind is how many people still go to watch games with the inflated prices that are passed on to fans. A couple years back I ended up going to a game and a small bottle of water was going for $4.50.

        Icing on the cake – when I went to a pro game in Korea last year, you could walk into the stadium with a bucket of KFC if you wanted to! Not to mention, you can bring your own water.

        … and the atmosphere at a Korean ball game is unbelievable!

        • Jeff_Todd_MLBTR 1 year ago

          You can bring in food and water to lots of parks (WAS and COL stand out to me, as they’ve been my home bases in recent years).

          One thing I miss about my old law firm job: walking to Potbelly for a sandwich to go, hopping on the metro, walking the short walk onto the left field concourse at Nats Park. (I do not miss the terrible combination of business attire and DC humidity, however.)

          • Jason J. Shaw 1 year ago

            Just looked it up out of curiosity what the guidelines really are in Toronto:

            “Rogers Centre does allow guests to bring food in as long as the
            items are wrapped, bagged or left inside a container to avoid spillage.
            Cans, glass bottles, aluminum/steel water bottles or drinks larger than
            600 ml are not permitted.”

            From my personal experience, I once had a half-empty water bottle in my pocket that I had forgotten about. When security at the gates noticed it, they seemed rather hesitant to let me in with it. Even before that, I got the impression that outside food and drink was not looked kindly upon. Guess now I now know better for next time!

        • kcmark 1 year ago

          You can get KFC in Korea?

          • Jason J. Shaw 1 year ago

            Yeah, they actually have many of the major North American food chains down there, but they had a few KFCs serving on the outside portion of Jamsil stadium (where the ’88 Olympics were held).

            The ballpark food that really caught my attention was the dried squid that looks kind of like a frisbee! I wasn’t brave enough to try it though.

            Had a post-game hot dog though, not quite sure what the toppings were that they put on it, but it was good!

  48. Vince 1 year ago

    Poopoo Boras, how sad for you and your clients. The system promotes equality by giving teams (particularly small market ones) who lose free agents (who rejected a lot of money and loyalty to their club) a draft pick.

  49. michael T 1 year ago

    These guys are making big mistakes by not signing now. What is wrong with signing now to a 1 year contract and then taking the 15 million qualifying offer next year? What if Morales breaks his ankle working out?

  50. kcmark 1 year ago

    Does anybody on this board really believe that forfeiture of a draft pick is what is keeping a team, any team from signing Morales or Drew? Both are players with skillsets that should be playing on a 1 year + option year at best. Neither of these two are worth long multi-year contracts.

  51. harperhill 1 year ago

    I get that they (or Boras) are trying to make what some of their peers are making with the multi-year deals, and that they feel “why not me” with regard to the 4yr/36M deals and such, but really, how can anyone that has not lost touch with reality say that a system in which they refused 14M dollars to play baseball for one year is screwing them? I’m not one of those people that rants about salaries being too high — this is just common sense and economics. I don’t buy at all this “doing what’s best for their families” nonsense. The kind of money they turn down is a staggering amount and has nothing to do with taking care of their families. It’s just plain competition — as in, x got this, so I should get this too. Cry me a river.

  52. Daniel Morairity 1 year ago

    Boras justs want both drew and morales play somewhere and i agree with him on one point

  53. Adam Blosser 1 year ago

    Yeah. 14.1 million dollars doesn’t offer much security…

  54. tylerdrew 1 year ago

    He had 14 million reasons to take it and if he had taken it maybe it would prevent teams from offering it.

  55. PDX Fan 1 year ago

    Interesting to note that Stephen Drew and Xander Bogaerts are both represented by Scott Boris.

  56. Captain America 1 year ago

    Boras jumped the shark

  57. GD 1 year ago

    For $14.1m/yr for a QO? Holy smokes they just need to start accepting some of these QO’s and more teams will pass on offering the QO’s. Peralta averaged $13.2m on his deal. Drew “if” offered a QO every year for the next 4 years would end up beating out Peralta’s $53m contract and earn an extra $4m (approx) over the next 4 years.

  58. GD 1 year ago

    Who’s gonna give Morales $14.1m/yr besides the QO he got last year by the M’s? He would do better to accept QO’s as long as they are avging $13-15m/yr, and ride the QO train until the team doesn’t offer him one. The second he’s a FA without a QO then attempt to land a multi-year deal for whatever he can land. He takes the higher QOs until they run out, and then settle for a multi year contract when he’s not under a QO offer.

  59. The_Unnatural 1 year ago

    I see he doesn’t mention that the M’s tried to work out a long-term deal with Kendrys and declined. Every M’s blog I read said that Morales would be a crazy to turn down the QO and the M’s would be crazy to offer one. Morales got greedy and overestimated himself. He did this to himself, not the QO.

  60. lee cousins 1 year ago

    Morales needs security, and stability for him and is family, you mean 14 million dollars a year is peanuts….cry me a river, and Boras just trying to get is agent the best pay day he can because it’s his job, you mean theirs nothing in it for him?…wake up it’s all about greed, reminds me of a movie wall street, one of the more memorable lines was greed is good, and if you don’t think it doesn’t apply to baseball, you need not look any further than one of your favorite ball players A-ROD that’s all folks.

  61. Speed 1 year ago

    Maybe they need to sign with Jayzee

  62. kenhowes 1 year ago

    It might just be that owners are starting to realize that Boras’s clients consistently demand, and hold out for, more than they are objectively worth (how much do they actually add to the team’s value; how much do they actually add to a team’s chances of winning a division, a pennant or a World Series?). Over and over, people have paid Boras’s clients too much and wound up with expensive millstones around their necks.

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