The Reds are five games below the .500 mark and currently sit 10.5 games back in the NL Central — a poor start that has many anticipating that the Reds will be sellers come the trade deadline. Bryce Dixon, the agent for Johnny Cueto, tells MLB Network Radio’s Jim Bowden that while the team hasn’t indicated they’re ready or willing to trade Cueto, that scenario is probably the most reasonable for the team, barring a turnaround. Says Dixon (audio link):
“They’ve made no indications to Johnny that they want to trade him, but reading the tea leaves, if they fall out of contention, it seems to make sense from their end. If they ride the season out with him and don’t make the playoffs, then they’re stuck with a compensation pick. And, from where I sit, I think they can probably get more than that on the trade market.”
Dixon has somewhat of a biased point of view, as a trade would make Cueto ineligible for a qualifying offer and strengthen his upcoming free agent stock to an extent. Cueto, however, is the type of free agent that will be so highly sought after that the qualifying offer has a relatively negligible impact on his stock; a club willing to shell out $150MM+ for a player is not likely to be overly swayed by the potential loss of a draft pick.
Cueto currently sits at No. 3 on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, but as Tim Dierkes noted on that list, there’s an argument to be made that Cueto is actually a better pitcher than David Price, who currently ranks second. While Cueto’s injury-shortened 2013 season — he threw just 60 2/3 innings — is an unquestionable strike against him, he topped 200 innings in 2012 and led the NL with 243 2/3 innings last season. Dating back to 2011, Cueto has an incredible 2.53 ERA, and his K/9 rate has increased from 6.0 in 2011 to 7.1 in 2012, 7.6 in 2013 and 8.9 in 2014. He’s at 8.3 in 2015 and has, to this point, shown the best control of any season in his career. If Cueto finishes the year with 200-plus innings and a fifth-consecutive season of a sub-3.00 ERA, he’ll at least have a claim as the market’s top free agent. Max Scherzer comparisons will be made.
I’d agree with Dixon’s assessment that the team will do better to trade Cueto than to take an extra pick at the end of next year’s first round. While Cueto is a pure rental, he’s an affordable one in terms of salary, making a reasonable $10MM in 2015. He’s also a difference-maker for any club looking to push into Wild Card contention or to bolster a likely playoff rotation. The benefit of giving Cueto the postseason starts that would otherwise go to a club’s current No. 3 or No. 4 starter is enormous, and it also allows a team to upgrade the bullpen by bumping its least effective relief pitcher for said No. 3/4 starter.
Dixon’s comments are also interesting in that they seem to indicate that he expects his client to sign with a new club this offseason. The notion that Cincinnati won’t be able to afford re-signing Cueto isn’t a new one, but it’s telling to hear Dixon eventually say that while Cueto would love to remain with the Reds, “…he’s pitched so well, that he’s going to command such a high price, that he might have priced himself out a market like Cincinnati.”
The one thing that could submarine both Cueto’s trade stock and free agent stock would be if a seemingly minor elbow ailment turns out to be more significant. Cueto missed his most recent start due to some stiffness in his right elbow, but an MRI revealed no structural damage. Via MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon, Cueto tossed a bullpen session yesterday and said that “every single pitch was good.” He’s slated to pitch tomorrow for the Reds, so the status of that elbow should become clear sooner rather than later.
June 1. Trade Deadline season is officially open……
The Yankees and Red Sox are to be in every rumor for a big-name player. And on all trade proposals, they’ll be doing the team giving up the big-name player a favor.
The Red Sox have a worse record than the Reds. Not sure why they’d be buying a rental, at this point.
They are only 4 games out of 1st place in a weak division.
Division is not as strong as it was but is in no way weak. All teams in the AL East are about even in talent, therefore 85 wins may win the division since these teams beat up on each other.
Terrible argument. The Red Sox have 2 more lose than the Reds. Yet the Red Sox are 4 games out in a weak division. The Reds are 10.5 games out in a tough division.
So please explain why the Red Sox won’t be buying on a rental player?
A team with a 22-29 record has a lot of holes, and one player isn’t going to make up for it. The team that wins the AL East isn’t going to win it from a blockbuster trade, it’ll be the team whose players start to play to their career norms. Johnny Cueto isn’t going to fix the Red Sox; Pablo Sandoval, Mike Napoli, David Ortiz, Rick Porcello, Clay Buchholz, and Wade Miley have to be the ones to do it.
Thats true, but that Sox rotation still doesn’t have a front line starter. It has some #3’s that can live up to that potential.
Which is essentially what they had in 2013 when they won the World Series (Although Lackey’s 3.52 ERA might be more of a #2). Point is, you don’t necessarily need an ace to win, just a rotation with 5 pitchers that give you a solid chance to win every night. They clearly don’t have that right now, but if all 5 of their guys pitched to their career lines, they would.
Sure, that’s true..its possible. But it’s not beyond the realm of logic that the Sox go shopping for a starter…and Cueto is likely out there. It’s not impossible that they might want to add some juice
I’m not sure I’d want to throw three #3’s out there in a playoff series…but that’s crap shoot anyway.
Exactly, it is. Sure, you can have a Madison Bumgarner last year performance during the playoffs, but then on the flip side you can have a James Shields last year performance. Admittedly, I was a rare defender of this rotation heading into the season, and while I pretty much no longer believe that this unit can do it, I still believe in the philosophy that winning without an ace is entirely possible. I just don’t think it’s worth valuable prospects for 17-ish starts in order to turn a bad team into a slightly less bad team.
Virtually anything is possible in a game that has close to a 50% luck/health element involved. Masterson was a real stretch… Cleveland didn’t even want to go reasonable long term. Porcello is valuable if you don’t have unrealistic expectations. I think part of the solution might be trying to shift Joe Kelly to a setup role once a starter is obtained. He might be very good there.
In no way am I saying they need to go get Cueto or Hamels…but I’d be surprised if they did nothing. Sure, they might play up to average and build a division lead… But its just as likely that another team does as well. Toronto has a scary offense and just needs some pitching right now.
Perhaps not a rental. Cueto’s agent involved? Look for whoever gets him to have him sign the big payday extension now.
And you’ll be commenting on every article with the same issue even though neither the Red Sox or the Yankees were mentioned here. What was the issue again?
Just read the comments from now until the deadline is over….on every article…..
Repeatedly saying that adds absolutely nothing to the conversation. We get it. You don’t like large market teams. It just comes off as bitter.
What are the Reds looking for? “Prospects” yes but any particular kind?
Starting pitching is a position of strength in the system, so I’m assuming they’ll be looking for position players (middle infield, corner outfield) and major league ready relief pitching.
Always admired Cueto.
Statistically this year, he isn’t setting the world on fire, but he is going deep into games. He is always getting to the 7th or 8th inning.
The thing is what can the Reds get for him?
Plus, Walt Jocketty doesn’t seem like a GM that is going to cave to the wishes of an agent. He will trade Cueto when he is good and ready.
and he will not get back anything near what he is worth. all they will get in return are more of the same just not ready for prime time players they have in their system drafted by him. he will make the trade because he does not know how to draft and unlike his old team who drafted a pitcher who was in their starting rotation less than a year after using the pick they got for pujols.
The Reds currently have one of their 2013 first-round picks in the rotation (Lorenzen) and another pitcher who was in the rotation on Opening Day 2010 after being drafted in 2009 (Leake). They also have a pitcher in their bullpen (Cingrani) who debuted the year after he was drafted.
If you’re not a fan of Jocketty, that’s fine, but the particular criticism you selected — or at least the counter-example you provided as to how it “should” be done — isn’t exactly applicable.
The Reds would be looking for major league ready starting pitching or a young catcher among other prospects.
I don’t think they’d be looking for any of that actually…they have Mesoraco a young long-term catcher. They just acquired Wallach in the Latos deal, and they have a plus defending young catcher in Barnhart.
For the rotation, they have three rookies in the rotation already, who look promising, and Stephensen and Moscot knocking on the door in the minors. What they lack is any elite hitting prospects outside of Winker and maybe Waldrop. Pretty much any hitting prospect around the diamond would be their #1 priority. Pitching would be secondary.
Yes if a trade happens it will be for power young and old probably with a vet pitcher on his way out on 2 year deal along those lines.
Merseraco has a hip impingement. He is getting one last opinon before surgery. NO catcher has ever played after this surgery. Mes has to prove to the Reds ha can still catch after the surgery/ rehab.
Pena and Barnhart are the solution now, not the future. Mes WAS the catcher of the future.
Without surgery that’s true, but he’s having surgery. Most experts think he’ll be fine to catch starting next year. With any injury you never know, but catching is not going to be #1 on the Reds list.
Spot on. Reds need offense.
I know it will never happen for many reasons but id love to see the Pirates try and add Johnny
Me too. Can’t stand him as a Red, but would love to have him as a Bucco.
That’s about as high a compliment as you can pay a player. Hate him with the other guys but want on your team. The Reds have a LOT of pitching on their farm and 3 very good young starters now. They’ll be looking for hitting prospects since they have no more than 1 or 2 decent ones in their system
Why Pirates too tight !
What are teams going to give up for a rental and 20 starts, let the bidding begin !
Cueto contact has Big Bucks written all over it , 200 Million. Yankees,Dodgers or Boston.
I could see the Astros going for Cueto but I doubt they give up Correa for him….anyone else is fair game though
I would package Cueto and Chapman, and look to extract some serious talent from any suitor. Those two would pack a huge upgrade for any team.
They will not be in a position to get serious talent because of two reasons. One, everyone knows that Cincinnati is in a cost cutting mode and MUST reduce their salary structure. That makes them highly motivated sellers. Two, Cueto is in his walk year and will demand at the very least a Lester type contract. This eliminates most of the teams that would otherwise be interested in Cueto. Chapman is on pace to become a very highly paid reliever in just a few years. Only three teams come to mind, the Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees.
If the Reds do move Cueto don’t expect them to get a big name player in return. With all the ill advised contracts and multi year deals to scrub players sleepy walt can’t and won’t sign a great player. The reds will end up with either nothing or a few prospects. jocketty ruined the franchise and Price cant manage.
They have to get a Organizations one of top three .
Jocketty did was he was hired to do and that was to mold a WS contender. While the Reds fell short of that goal as a team it wasn’t for lack of effort on Walt’s part.
Boston will go out and make a package for chapman and cueto
Please no.
imo I think they do because I don’t see them making a package for hamels so I think cueto
Well first of all, I definitely don’t see them going after Chapman… they’ve made it clear that Koji is their closer. And secondly, I think Cole Hamels (even though I’m against this too) is a better fit for the Sox given his contract longevity. Cueto is a pure rental, and since the Sox are so bad right now, I don’t think this is the year to gamble the future on. Hamels would fit into long-term plans.
I have the dodgers getting hamels since the phillies are willing to eat some of the contract
Dodgers and Boston don’t really care about money like small market teams do… that move by the Phillies is to appeal to teams like the Astros (could be a dark horse for Hamels).
I dont think the astros will trade for him, The astros will fall out of the race, they better enjoy their run while it last because the angels are going to hit their stride and take back the al west
Yes, there hold Team !
Boston has the second worst record in the AL. You think they are going to be buyers?
The Dodgers need a quality starter. They could trade 19 second basemen and a half dozen shortstops and one or two outfielders and not feel the pinch. Just saying’.
I have the dodgers getting hamels
I think that Hamels having some years left on his contract is appealing to the Dodgers. I think they are valuing the longer term players especially as they may lose Greinke, Kendrick and Ellis and definitely will lose Rollins and Anderson. Cueto will definitely be of interest but Dodgers will not bid as strongly as some more desperate teams like Boston or Yankees
I dont give a crap how they think they arrive at these conclusions as to value, By every measure this guyis at least as good as any pitcher in baseball now Period end of story and as I have said before if the reds trade him before his peak then they are simply admitting and confirming that there are certain teams that have no business in fielding a major league team as anything other than a farm team for some of the wealthier franchises, which by the way are very few probably less than ten teams are in that field.
Cueto has a lot of teams going after him and I think the one team you could guess is the yankees. The yankees need a starting pitcher that is very good and cc sabathia is not doing so good this year and tanaka did have a good start today against Seattle but overall the Yankees need pitching help
Please, Dodgers, get Cueto, but without giving up Seager or Urias. Then re-sign Greinke. Let’s see, a starting rotation of Kershaw, Greinke, Cueto, Ryu, anyone Anderson/McCarthy. Wow!
Here is where things get interesting. Both Boston and the Yankees would like to upgrade their pitching, one due to quality that they currently have and the other due to health concerns regarding their rotation. Boston is in need more than the Yankees and arguably have better prospects to offer. The Yankees are well aware of all this and can use this to their advantage by driving up the price that Boston has to pay to get Cueto. The Yankees owe Boston one due to the Moncada scenario where Boston bought him to prevent him from signing with the Yankees even though they had no real need for his services. Look for the Yankees to reciprocate. The Red Sox would like to get Chapman as well. This will be a very entertaining negotiation between the two teams and Cincinnati.