MLBTR Originals: 10/17/10 – 10/24/10
All eyes are on the World Series, but we here at MLBTR are looking ahead to the Hot Stove League. Here's a recap of our original content from the last week…
- Ben Nicholson-Smith tackled the bullpen market, looking at potential relievers for the Diamondbacks and five potential bargain lefties. He also listed some minor league deals that paid off.
- Tim Dierkes looked at the free agent market for left fielders and the trade market for third basemen.
- Luke Adams listed five pitchers that could benefit from a move to the NL, and I rounded up each team's 2011 payroll commitments.
- Ben compared Robinson Cano and Darren O'Day, who don't have much in common beyond a birthday. His series looking at what was said about each GM when they were hired concluded with the NL West.
- The Arbitration Eligibles series continued with the Padres, Dodgers, and Rockies.
- Our series looking at each team's spending on amateur prospects continued with the Cubs, White Sox, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, and Marlins.
- This week's poll questions includes queries about the Mets' next general manager, A.J. Burnett's contract, baseball's model franchise, and the World Series.
- We looked at the free agent stock of Kevin Correia of the Padres, Ty Wigginton of the Orioles, and Derrek Lee of the Braves. We also discussed Jimmy Rollins' next contract.
- Steve Adams broke down the Giants' roster.
- The best of blogosphere was rounded up in this week's Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
- This week's chat transcript can be found here.
- Learn about our team and transactons-only feeds here.
Week In Review: 10/17/10 – 10/23/10
Seems hard to believe that the World Series is already upon us, but we're just three days away. Congratulations to both the Rangers and the Giants! That said, let's take a look back at the MLBTR world over the past seven days:
- The Tigers and Brandon Inge agreed on a two-year extension that will pay the 34-year-old $11.5MM. Beyond Adrian Beltre, there's not much on the free agent market, so Detroit stuck with what it had, even if the price was a bit steep.
- Details emerged on the Ted Lilly signing, as we heard the Dodgers will pay the left-hander $33MM over the next three seasons. That's one free agent starter off the market, and another could be gone soon as well, with Jake Westbrook and the Cardinals discussing an extension.
- Some news about the market's other top pitchers: Texas will bid aggressively on Cliff Lee to keep him in Arlington, Zack Greinke's no-trade clause is larger than originally thought, and Javier Vazquez is interested in pitching for the Nationals.
- The Nationals signed Mike Rizzo to a five-year extension this week as well. Tough to argue with Rizzo's results to this point, although the Adam Dunn situation is questionable.
- In managerial news this week, the Cubs hired Mike Quade, and we heard that John Farrell was offered the Blue Jays job before this morning's announcement that Toronto would indeed hire him. Also, the Cardinals re-signed Tony La Russa for 2011 with a mutual option for 2012.
- The Mets have narrowed their GM search down to two candidates: Sandy Alderson and Josh Byrnes. We heard that Alderson is the favorite, but no decision has been made yet.
- We already know the Reds will pick up Bronson Arroyo's option, but we also learned this week that they'll probably exercise the $1.75MM option on Jonny Gomes. Orlando Cabrera's $4MM option will most likely be declined, despite the fact that the Reds will be increasing payroll in 2011.
- The Yankees sent Andrew Shive and Matt Cusick to Cleveland in order to complete July's Kerry Wood trade. Neither prospect is particularly impressive, though that's not a surprise given Wood's injuries and salary.
- The Braves had a busy Tuesday as they released Melky Cabrera and also released Takashi Saito, as they were contractually obligated to do. Saito adds an intriguing arm to the late-inning relief market, while Melky could make a nice fourth outfielder if he can trend back toward his Yankee numbers.
- Josh Willingham would like to sign an extension to remain with the Nationals.
- The Padres will seek production for the top of their lineup this offseason as they look to improve the table-setters for Adrian Gonzalez.
- Interesting note on a trio of players: Bengie Molina is still probably ready to call it a career, while Randy Winn is hoping to avoid that fate and play in 2011, and Orlando Hernandez wants to come out of retirement and pitch again in 2011.
- In international news, Yu Darvish announced that he's planning on remaining in Japan next season, while we learned that multiple Japanese teams are interested in Kenshin Kawakami. One team said it will pay as much as $3MM of Kawakami's 2011 salary.
- The Mets and Francisco Rodriguez resolved their grievance, with the Mets not paying his final $3.1MM of 2010, but paying him in full for 2011.
- In a couple of minor moves, the Brewers signed Mike Rivera and the Marlins re-signed Donnie Murphy.
Phillies Face Multiple Decisions In Offseason
With their 2010 season officially in the books, MLB.com's Todd Zolecki examined the Phillies' decisions regarding both free agency and arbitration this offseason. Here are some highlights:
- The Phillies and Jayson Werth will both say they have interest in working something out, and while that's probably true, Zolecki agrees with the common belief that Werth will be playing elsewhere in 2011. The Phillies already have $145MM committed to 16 players in 2011, and Werth's probable $15MM+ salary will be too much to add on.
- J.C. Romero's option will probably be declined due to the left-hander's injury problems and control issues (7.1 BB/9 the past two seasons).
- Jose Contreras could be this season's Chan Ho Park. Both pitched well out of the Philadelphia bullpen, but in doing so significantly raised their stock. Contreras could be in line for more money than Philadelphia wants to offer. Zolecki does note that Contreras' best friend and fellow Cuban, Danys Baez, is under contract for 2011, so that may help sway Contreras.
- Chad Durbin is 50-50 on whether or not he'd take less money than he could get on the open market to stay with the Phils. As Zolecki points out, this could be Durbin's only chance to secure a decent multiyear deal.
- Jamie Moyer, Mike Sweeney, and Greg Dobbs are all unlikely to be brought back.
- Ben Francisco will almost certainly be tendered a contract, and could platoon with Domonic Brown. Kyle Kendrick is due a raise and could be non-tendered and then re-signed at a more affordable price.
A Look At The Giants’ Roster
Giants' general manager Brian Sabean has taken some flak over the past few years, and some of it has been well deserved. The seven-year, $126MM contract he gave to Barry Zito and the five-year, $60MM contract for Aaron Rowand have been colossal disappointments. He traded Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan, and Boof Bonser to the Twins for A.J. Pierzynski. Edgar Renteria should not be making $9MM per season.
Yet in spite of those moves, a look at the current roster shows some shrewd low-budget options that have landed the Giants in the World Series opposite the Rangers, with one of the more interesting rosters in baseball. Let's take a look:
The Outfield
While Rowand's deal looms over the others, it should be noted that the Giants will be paying their primary outfielders under $2MM this World Series. Cody Ross is due roughly $1.1MM from the Giants after their August waiver claim, and already has an NLCS MVP trophy to his name. Pat Burrell was signed following his release from Tampa Bay, and the Giants are only on the hook for about $300K. He supplied 18 home runs and an .872 OPS. Andres Torres arrived in San Fran with little fanfare, but he's been a key to their success generating a whopping 6.0 WAR at just $426K this season.
The Infield
Remember when experts said that the Aubrey Huff signing was one of the worst of this past offseason? Huff totaled a .290/.385/.506 line and led the club with 26 homers while earning just $3MM. Juan Uribe returned on his second one-year deal with the club for just $3.25MM and tallied 24 home runs of his own. While the two-year, $18.5MM Renteria deal was awful, the Giants managed to fill the void on the cheap and get a .754 OPS from the position during Uribe's 103 games there. Freddy Sanchez missed the begining of the season after signing a two-year, $12MM deal, but totaled 2.7 WAR in 111 games, easily justifying his $6MM salary. Pablo Sandoval, of course, manned the hot corner for next to nothing.
Catcher
It may have been a bit late, but the Giants made absolutely certain Buster Posey was Major League ready, and did he ever silence any doubters who may have questioned his power after a slow start in Triple-A. Posey's .305/.357/.505 line has Giants fans swooning, and voters fretting over whether he or Jason Heyward deserves NL Rookie of the Year honors.
The Rotation
Sometimes the best trades are ones you never make. Over the past several seasons, we've heard about possible Tim Lincecum–Alex Rios and Matt Cain–Prince Fielder trades, as well as several others involving both Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner. Through it all, the Giants stuck with that quartet, who totaled under $15MM in 2010 salary, and were rewarded tremendously.
The Bullpen
There were 722 players drafted before Brian Wilson in 2003. There were zero in 2010 with more saves and only eight relievers who posted a mark higher than Wilson's 11.21 K/9. In 2005, 851 players were drafted ahead of Sergio Romo — he of a 2.18 ERA and 10.2 K/9 in 2010. Ramon Ramirez and Javier Lopez, acquired at the trade deadline, combined for 46 innings of 0.98 ERA ball. Jeremy Affeldt's two-year, $9.5MM deal may not have been a huge bargain, but it was hardly a disaster. He totaled a 2.80 ERA over 112.1 innings as a Giant, though he struggled more in 2010. They received quality innings out of the likes of Guillermo Mota ($750K) and Chris Ray (acquired from Texas for Bengie Molina).
Wrapping Up
It's possible — assuming a starting nine of Lincecum, Posey, Huff, Sanchez, Uribe, Sandoval, Burrell, Torres, and Ross — that the nine players who take the field on Wednesday night wearing orange and white will be earning a total of just under $23MM. That's less than the trio of Zito, Rowand, and Renteria alone earned this year ($39.5MM). And let's not forget they're paying Mark DeRosa approximately $6MM for just 26 games as a result of his injuries.
That total alone is greater than the entire payroll of teams like the Pirates and Padres, and yet the Giants find themselves four wins away from baseball's highest peak. The 2010 Giants serve as a rare example of a team that managed to overcome some of the game's worst contracts through low-risk, high-reward signings, and seeing talent where others thought there was nothing left or it simply wasn't worth the investment.
Cafardo On Greinke, Arroyo, Hall, Rays, Ortiz
In today's column for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo examines the possibility of a Zack Greinke trade, noting that the Red Sox should at least inquire, given Allard Baird's history with the Royals and Greinke. Here are some of Cafardo's other notes:
- One AL GM on Greinke vs. Cliff Lee: "There may not be anyone better than Lee right now, but how long is that going to last? …. If you’re looking to build around someone, you would roll the dice with Greinke and hope that what he showed this season is an off year and not a sign of things to come. You’d have to do due diligence, but the upside with Greinke is pretty good."
- The Reds are attempting to work out an extension with Bronson Arroyo that would keep him in Cincinnati for a few years and slightly reduce his 2011 salary ($13MM). That way, the team could have some flexibility to add free agents this winter, and would lock up one of its best arms to a long-term contract.
- Bill Hall will look to find a full-time job at one position this offseason, but "people around Hall" are suggesting the all-purpose utility role he played in Boston might be better suited for him.
- The Rays are expected to field trade offers for B.J. Upton, Jason Bartlett, and maybe James Shields.
- David Ortiz and the Red Sox have had some contract discussions, but there's no resolution yet on either an extension or Ortiz's 2011 option. Boston will have until three days after the World Series ends to decide on the $12.5MM option, last month, we heard the Sox were prepared to exercise it.
Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?
Although it briefly appeared as if we may have been heading for a Phillies/Yankees rematch, this year's World Series will feature some new faces. The Giants are aiming to win their first championship in San Francisco, while the Rangers are playing in the Series for the first time in franchise history. No matter which team wins, two things appear certain: one side's fanbase will be devastated, and Bengie Molina will end up with a World Series ring.
When we asked you for your ALCS and NLCS picks, votes were nearly evenly split. Let's see if there's a consensus choice for this year's champion.
Who will win the World Series?
Blue Jays To Hire John Farrell
The Blue Jays haven't officially announced that John Farrell will be the team's next manager, but John Henry confirms to Peter Abraham and Nick Cafardo that Farrell will be leaving Boston for Toronto. The Red Sox owner told the Boston Globe in an e-mail that "the Jays are getting a great baseball man and a great person."
Reports on Friday indicated that Farrell had been offered the managerial job by the Jays and was expected to accept. Now, Henry suggests that it's a done deal: "He will be an effective, excellent manager. I expect him to manage in MLB for as long as he wants to…. He will be missed."
The Blue Jays' managerial search, following Cito Gaston's retirement, was an exhaustive process that began with a list of about 200 candidates and was eventually whittled down to four finalists. From there, it became clear that Farrell, Boston's pitching coach, was the frontrunner. He will take over a club that finished 85-77, good for fourth in the American League East. According to Abraham and Cafardo, the Jays are expected to introduce Farrell in Toronto tomorrow.
Amateur Signing Bonuses: Marlins
Next up, a look at the Marlins' spending on amateur players…
- Josh Beckett, $3.625MM (1999)
- Adrian Gonzalez, $3MM (2000)
- Livan Hernandez, $2.5MM (1996)
- Kyle Skipworth, $2.3MM (2008)
- Jason Stokes, $2.027MM (2000)
Touted as the best high school pitching prospect ever, Beckett received the largest contract ever given to a prep pitcher when he agreed to a big league contract guaranteeing him at least $7MM as the second overall pick. He made quick work of the minors, debuting for Florida in 2001. Two years later he was the World Series MVP, and two years after that he was traded to the Red Sox in the blockbuster that brought Hanley Ramirez to the Marlins. Beckett's career with the Marlins consisted of a 3.46 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 609 innings.
Gonzalez was the first overall pick in what is considered one of the worst draft classes in recent memory. He performed well as he steadily climbed the minor league ladder, at least until the Fish traded him and another minor leaguer to the Rangers for Ugueth Urbina to help bolster their bullpen during their 2003 title run. Gonzalez never played a game for the Marlins, and of course has since gone on to star with the Padres.
The Marlins signed Hernandez shortly after he defected from Cuba as a 21-year-old, and less than a year later he was named the 1997 World Series MVP. He remained with the Marlins until the 1999 trade deadline, when he was shipped to the Giants for two players. Livan finished his Marlins' career with a 4.39 ERA in 469.2 innings.
Stokes was selected with the 41st overall pick in 2000 after setting the Texas single-season high school record with 25 homers, but injuries (most notably to his hand and groin) derailed his career. He was pretty much through with baseball by 2007, after a minor league career that saw him hit .275/.349/.507 in 1,904 plate appearances. The Marlins dealt him to Oakland before the 2007 season for John Baker.
Florida took Skipworth with the sixth overall pick in 2008, and he is slowly making his way through the farm system. A career .226/.285/.381 hitter, the 20-year-old had the best season of his career in 2010, hitting .245/.309/.418. It's also worth noting that Miguel Cabrera's $1.9MM bonus (1999) was the largest ever given to a Venezuelan-born player, and stood as the record for close to a decade.
Odds & Ends: Brewers, Marlins, Yankees, Bagwell
A few links to check out as the Giants try to join the Rangers in the World Series…
- Over at RotoAuthority, Tim Dierkes lists some Pittsburgh Pirates that could help your fantasy team next season.
- Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com report that Joey Cora and Bob Melvin are among the final candidates for the Brewers managerial opening. Pat Listach was informed that he is no longer considered a candidate for the job according Tom Haudricourt of The Journal Sentinel.
- Elsewhere in Milwaukee coaching news, the team has confirmed that Dale Sveum will return as hitting coach on a two-year deal according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy (via Twitter). Sveum was a candidate for Pirates' manager job.
- The Marlins have no immediate plans to interview Yankees bench coach Tony Pena for their managerial opening now that New York has been eliminated from the postseason, reports Juan C. Rodriguez of The Sun-Sentinel.
- Meanwhile, Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com lists ten issues the Yanks must deal with this offseason, starting with Derek Jeter's contract situation.
- MLB.com's Brian McTaggart tweets that Jeff Bagwell has informed the Astros that he will not be returning as hitting coach. Astros senior director of social media Alyson Footer says (via Twitter) that there are no hard feelings on either side.
- MetsBlog.com's Matthew Cerrone muses about the Mets acquiring a starting pitcher.
- In today's blog post at ESPN (Insider req'd), Buster Olney explains how the Rangers were able to take on payroll over the last year despite being bankrupt.
- Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that when the Mets interview GM candidates Sandy Alderson and Josh Byrnes for a second time this week, they will focus on what each would do in the immediate future, meaning the upcoming offseason.
- Meanwhile, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com tweets that because Josh Byrnes is still under contract with the Diamondbacks for the next five years, the Mets would only have to pay him a "reasonable amount" if they hire him as their new GM. That amount would then be deducted from what Arizona is paying him.
- In the wake of their ALCS loss to the Rangers, John Harper of The New York Daily News says that the failed Cliff Lee trade ultimately cost the Yankees.
- Richard Justice of The Houston Chronicle thinks there's a case to be made for the Astros signing Lance Berkman this offseason.
- Troy Renck of The Denver Post thinks the Rockies should make a run at Javier Vazquez if the price is right (Twitter link).
2011 Payroll Commitments
With the 2010-2011 offseason drawing closer, we're going to start hearing more and more about how much each team is able to spend on their 2011 roster. Some are obviously able to spend more than others, but every team will be impacted by how much money they already have tied up in existing contracts.
Below is a list of the guaranteed money that each team is responsible for next season. Players in their pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible seasons do not count since they can simply be non-tendered. Buyouts are included, however, as is money owed to former players (like the Dodgers and Juan Pierre) as well as money received from other teams for current players (like the Cubs and Carlos Silva).
Obviously this data is unofficial, but it's a fine ballpark number to reference.
- Angels, $93.667MM: Torii Hunter, Scott Kazmir, and Dan Haren are the big obligations here.
- Astros, $41.25MM: Almost half belongs to Carlos Lee.
- Athletics, $11.48MM: Eric Chavez's $3MM buyout is the biggest commitment.
- Blue Jays, $43.243MM: Lots and lots of Vernon Wells here.
- Braves, $61.867MM: Derek Lowe, Chipper Jones, and Tim Hudson are the biggest obligations.
- Brewers, $32.371MM: Mostly Randy Wolf.
- Cardinals, $81.089MM: Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter, and Kyle Lohse make up most of this.
- Cubs, $87.925MM: This will go up if/when Aramis Ramirez exercises his $14.6MM player option.
- Diamondbacks, $19.991MM: Chris Young and Mark Reynolds make up more than half of this.
- Dodgers, $61.833MM: This includes Ted Lilly's new deal.
- Giants, $76.933MM: A big chunk of this is going to Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand.
- Indians, $27.455MM: It's all for Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, and Fausto Carmona.
- Mariners, $69.596MM: Ichiro Suzuki is the big hit.
- Marlins, $19.75MM: Almost entirely Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson.
- Mets, $108.763MM: Both Johan Santana and Carlos Beltran are over $20MM.
- Nationals, $29.150MM: Ryan Zimmerman and Jason Marquis are the big earners.
- Orioles, $28.7MM: Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis make up the majority of this.
- Padres, $1.1MM: Just amazing. All of that money is tied up in buyouts for Jon Garland and Yorvit Torrealba, so they technically have no one under contract for next season.
- Phillies, $143.728MM: They owe six players eight-figure salaries next season.
- Pirates, $16.75MM: Ryan Doumit and Paul Maholm are the big commitments.
- Rangers, $32.1MM: Just about half goes to Michael Young.
- Rays, $17.674MM: Ben Zobrist and James Shields make up basically half of this.
- Reds, $42.733MM: Francisco Cordero, Brandon Phillips, and Scott Rolen are making the big bucks.
- Red Sox, $100.506MM: John Lackey, J.D. Drew, and Josh Beckett are almost half of this.
- Rockies, $50.841: Lots of Aaron Cook and Todd Helton in here.
- Royals, $45.53MM: Zack Greinke and Gil Meche will get most of this.
- Tigers, $61.025MM: This is less than half of their 2010 commitments.
- Twins, $72.35MM: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Joe Nathan, and Michael Cuddyer account for almost all of that.
- White Sox, $75.425MM: Most of this goes to Jake Peavy, Alexis Rios, and Mark Buehrle.
- Yankees, $144.612MM: Just wait until they re-sign Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the information used in this post.