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Archives for August 2010

The Royals’ 2011 Rotation

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | August 26, 2010 at 2:45pm CDT

Zack Greinke may not be happy with the Royals' direction, but he's probably going to anchor their rotation next year. The Royals will surround him with a combination of familiar major league arms and, potentially, unproven minor league pitching prospects.

First, the familiar major leaguers. Gil Meche is rehabbing as a reliever now and though he makes $12MM next year and has a history as a reliable starter he can't be expected to return to the rotation. He will pitch out of the bullpen to avoid surgery, so unless he comes to spring training feeling stronger than expected, he'll be in the 'pen. Luke Hochevar is also on the DL, but showed promise (6.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9) before an elbow strain sidelined him. Hochevar should join Greinke in the Royals' 2011 rotation.

After those three pitchers, there's much uncertainty. Bruce Chen has provided the Royals with serviceable innings as a swingman this year. They could bring him back in a similar capacity for 2011, but Chen doesn't change the Royals' long term plans.

Kyle Davies and Brian Bannister both go to arbitration for the third time this winter, but won't necessarily be tendered contracts. They have ERAs over 5.00 and will each make over $2MM next year if offered arbitration. Bannister is currently on the DL rehabbing from rotator cuff tendinitis and a strong September would go a long way toward preventing a non-tender.

Recent acquisition Sean O'Sullivan and former first-rounders Bryan Bullington and Philip Humber have all started games for the Royals this year, with varying degrees of success. Humber has looked good in 10.2 major league innings this year and he struck out four times as many batters as he walked at Triple A (though it was his fourth stint at the minors' highest level).

But the Royals' hopes rest in the minor leagues. They have standout position players – Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer in particular – and a group of exciting young arms. At this point, however, the Royals' pitching prospects don't seem likely to contribute much to the 2011 rotation.

Aaron Crow, Tim Melville and John Lamb are promising, but probably need more seasoning. Danny Duffy and Chris Dwyer have each handled AA batters well, but neither has started more than five games at the level. Top prospect Mike Montgomery made a successful leap to AA this year, but the Royals are still monitoring his innings carefully and it would be unfair to expect him to debut in the majors before late 2011. Edgar Osuna isn't the prospect Montgomery is, but he has struck out three times as many hitters as he has walked in the upper minors and posted a season ERA of 4.17.

At this point, it appears that Greinke and Hochevar will figure prominently into the rotation while the organization's best prospects develop in the minor leagues. The Royals will likely look for some stabilizing inning eaters, whether that means bringing back some combination of Chen, Davies and Bannister, or signing a free agent.

 

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2011 Rotations Kansas City Royals

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Surprise Teams Spend On Draft

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | August 26, 2010 at 1:27pm CDT

It doesn’t take Andrew Tinnish long to explain why the draft matters to the Toronto Blue Jays.

“Because we play in the toughest division in baseball with the two biggest spenders in baseball,” Tinnish told MLBTR. “It’s pretty simple for me.”

As the team’s amateur scouting director, he is responsible for infusing new talent into the organization. This year – the Blue Jays’ first season under Tinnish – the team spared no expense. Toronto signed its 2010 draftees for $11.6MM in bonuses, according to totals compiled by Baseball America. Joining the Blue Jays as the biggest spenders in the industry were the deep-pocketed Red Sox, the Nationals (who signed top pick Bryce Harper) and two others: the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cleveland Indians.

The Pirates, Indians and Blue Jays have pursued major league free agents cautiously, but each team spent big on draft bonuses this year. Each of those three clubs committed more to 2010 draftees than they did to last offseason’s crop of free agents. And before 2010, no team had ever committed as much in bonuses to one draft class as the Pirates ($11.9MM) and Blue Jays did this summer. Franchises that don’t or can’t spend their way to the top of the MLB standings are investing heavily in the draft because they expect top amateurs will lead to success at the major league level.

But as Tinnish points out, it’s one thing to spend and it’s another thing to find the right players.

“To me it’s not about spending,” Tinnish said. “Whether that’s an Aaron Sanchez, who obviously signed for a reasonable amount for where he was taken (supplemental first round, $775K bonus) or a Dickie Joe Thon, who signed for much more than the recommended amount for where he was selected (fifth round, $1.5MM bonus), it’s about acquiring talent.”

The Pirates haven’t had enough major league talent to post a winning record since 1992 and as an 18th-consecutive losing season unfolds, they are building through the draft. In the two months leading up to last week’s signing deadline, GM Neal Huntington committed more in bonuses than any team except the Nationals. The Pirates selected second overall, which meant they could choose any player not named Bryce Harper. But talented players with potentially intimidating demands fell to them well after the first round.

“We paid players fourth round money in the later rounds because we felt they were fourth round talent,” Huntington told MLBTR over e-mail. “And in effect, [we] added additional upper round talent to our system via this process.”

The Pirates also added top talent when they were expected to: in the first two rounds of the draft. Prep right-handers Jameson Taillon (first round, $6.5MM bonus) and Stetson Allie (second round, $2.25MM bonus) both signed for over-slot deals. Not every organization goes over-slot on its draftees and as Huntington points out, the Pirates rely on the flexibility to make those offers.

“Those resources have allowed us to aggressively add much-needed quality talent to the organization,” Huntington said.

Last summer, the Indians promised themselves that they would do the same.

“A year ago we sat down and decided that we wanted to be aggressive in the draft and try to add as much talent as we possibly could,” Indians amateur scouting director Brad Grant said. “Knowing that where we are right now as a major league organization, we need to infuse as much talent into our organization as possible.”

At that point, the Indians didn’t know they’d end up drafting Drew Pomeranz, their eventual first-round selection. They ranked potential picks based on talent, with players’ demands in mind – but only to an extent.

“We were ready to react,” Grant said. “We knew the players that we liked. We had a breakdown solely by ability and we tried to take the player we liked best.”

The Indians are prepared to spend on elite amateurs because they aren’t able to spend on elite pros.

“Especially with our market, we can’t afford to sign some of the higher-end major league free agents,” Grant said. “That gets out of our spectrum, so the best way to infuse talent into our organization is to acquire it, whether that be through the draft, whether that be through international signings, whether that be through trades, those are routes we have to take in order to acquire top talent.”

The Blue Jays drafted and developed Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero and Aaron Hill among others under former GM J.P. Ricciardi. The team is under a new regime now, but there’s no question that the Blue Jays continue to rely on the draft.

“The position we’re in, the division we’re in, I think this is an area where we need to be very aggressive and acquire as much talent as we possibly can,” Tinnish said. “[We] hope that that talent helps us in the big leagues or helps us to trade for big leaguers to eventually win the division.”

Before the 2010 season, Baseball America ranked Toronto’s system 28th among the 30 MLB organizations, but as soon as he took over for Ricciardi, Alex Anthopoulos vowed to invest heavily in scouting. Tinnish went into the draft with a willingness to commit to players demanding over-slot deals, but generally speaking, the Blue Jays are not going to out-spend the Yankees and Red Sox.

“We don’t have an unlimited budget, we don’t have unlimited payroll,” Tinnish said. “I think that for a team like us and the position we’re in … we need to draft well.”

The aftermath of the 2010 draft just concluded last week, but Tinnish has been scouting all summer and can already rattle off a dozen showcases and tournaments he has attended in preparation for the 2011 draft. The Blue Jays are not alone; other teams are doing the same.

“We’re well into 2011 already,” Grant said. ”It looks like it should shape up to be a very, very good draft year.”

Teams like the Indians, Blue Jays and Pirates are hoping so. For them, the draft is one area where they out-muscle their richer rivals.

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2010 Amateur Draft Cleveland Guardians Pittsburgh Pirates Toronto Blue Jays

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The Angels In The Outfield

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | August 26, 2010 at 11:41am CDT

Carl Crawford will have suitors lining up for him after the season and we've been assuming for a while that the Angels will be one of them. Owner Arte Moreno doesn't seem to mind spending on his team and Crawford told Mark Saxon of ESPNLos Angeles that he likes Anaheim.

"The weather's great. The grass is really soft. It's one of the best places in the big leagues," Crawford said.

It's not the first time he has said the right thing about a potential free agent destination. Over the weekend, Crawford told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he likes Oakland's young pitching. Both teams could use Crawford, but let's see how he'd fit onto the 2011 Angels. The team has five viable outfielders under team control for 2011:

  • Bobby Abreu – He is showing his typical mixture of speed (17 SB), power (15 HR) and patience (68 BB) this season. He'll be back in 2011 for $9MM.
  • Torii Hunter – Hunter is having another strong season. He'll be back in 2011 for $18MM.
  • Peter Bourjos – The fleet-footed 23-year-old hasn't hit much in 71 major league plate appearances, but his minor league track record (.861 OPS at Triple A this year) suggests he should.
  • Juan Rivera – Rivera has been playing a little first base, but Kendry Morales should bump Rivera back to the outfield in 2011. The Angels will pay Rivera $5.25MM next year, but his production has dropped off (.256/.309/.415 line).
  • Reggie Willits – Willits goes to arbitration for the second time this winter, but he isn't guaranteed a contract offer or a roster spot on the 2011 Angels. 
  • Hideki Matsui hits free agency after the season and seems likely to depart. It's not too early to get excited about Mike Trout, but it is too early to pencil him onto the team's 2011 roster. The top prospect has yet to play in the upper minors.

The Angels do have room for Crawford if they let Matsui walk and move Abreu to the DH spot. That would give the Angels a strong defensive outfield of Crawford, Bourjos and Hunter and could mean the Angels part ways with either Willits or Rivera. 

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Los Angeles Angels Carl Crawford

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Joey Votto: Extension Candidate

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | August 26, 2010 at 9:47am CDT

Walt Jocketty knows a thing or two about extending young, MVP-caliber first basemen. The Reds GM signed Albert Pujols to his current seven-year $100MM deal in 2004, back when he was running the Cardinals. This winter, Jocketty will have to consider offering an extension to another productive young first baseman, one who has led the Reds to the top of the NL Central standings.

Joey Votto would be leading the NL in every triple crown category if it weren't for Pujols. The Reds first baseman, who homered twice and singled in the go-ahead run in yesterday's marathon win, is having himself an MVP-caliber season. Not only does he lead the league in batting average, he has higher on base and slugging percentages that any other NL player.

Votto had put together two-plus productive major league seasons heading into 2010 and he's now about to go to arbitration for the first time. I suggested Monday that Votto could reasonably ask for $7MM through arbitration next year, but what if the Reds decide to offer him an extension? How much would they have to offer the soon-to-be-27-year-old to keep him around long-term?

It depends, of course, on certain variables. The Reds could attempt to buy out any number of free agent years, may want to add an option year or two and could even include incentives or bonuses. It would be foolish to try to predict the details of a possible extension, but we can safely attempt to determine how much Votto can expect to earn for his three seasons of arbitration eligibility.

As this chart shows, Votto has produced like Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Morneau, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Mark Teixeira had at the same points in their respective careers. Those first basemen each made between $4.5-10MM for their first arbitration season and between $7.4-15MM for their second arbitration season. The comparisons are imperfect, but they gives us a sense of the kind of money Votto can make. 

Fielder and Teixeira made $15-20MM for their first two seasons of arbitration, so if the Reds valued Votto's first two arbitration seasons similarly and offered a proportionate raise for 2013, they'd be looking at a $30MM price tag for their first baseman's next three seasons. It wouldn't make sense for the Reds to offer an extension unless they thought they were getting a fair deal, so they may not make a proposal at all. But whether they extend Votto or not, his next three seasons could cost them about $30MM.

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Cincinnati Reds Joey Votto

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Dodgers Talking Trade With White Sox

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | August 25, 2010 at 7:39pm CDT

7:39pm: Ramirez has told friends that he would waive his no-trade clause to approve a deal to the White Sox, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter).

6:50pm: Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times hears that the Dodgers and White Sox are discussing a potential Ramirez trade (Twitter link).

5:43pm: The Dodgers are preparing for trade talks with the White Sox, according to Toni Ginnetti of the Chicago Sun-Times. The Dodgers are reviewing scouting reports on some of Chicago’s minor leaguers, since the White Sox have previously shown interest in Manny Ramirez, who hit the waiver wire today. Ginnetti reports that the Dodgers “appeared to be trying to negotiate a trade” instead of handing Ramirez and his salary over.

All National League teams have to pass on Ramirez for the White Sox to trade for him, but the Dodgers seem to be anticipating a claim by Chicago. As ESPN.com's Buster Olney pointed out on Twitter today, any team that takes on Ramirez's salary would be "committing $4MM for a player whose last hit came 57 days ago." The slugging left fielder has struggled to hit in the majors since returning from the disabled list, but the White Sox could use an upgrade at DH.

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Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers Manny Ramirez

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Poll: Will A National League Team Claim Ramirez?

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | August 25, 2010 at 7:01pm CDT

We’ve heard a lot of talk about the White Sox and Manny Ramirez, but for Chicago to have a shot at the unpredictable slugger, half of baseball’s teams have to let him pass through waivers. National League teams have priority for NL players, so the White Sox don’t have any chance of obtaining Ramirez if one of the Dodgers’ NL rivals makes a claim first. 

The White Sox are presumably hoping that doesn’t happen, but it's not a foregone conclusion that every National League team will pass on Ramirez. One baseball person who spoke to Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times thinks an NL team will make a claim (Twitter link). 

Any team claiming Ramirez would have to be prepared to take on $4.4MM in salary, but $3.4MM of that total is deferred. For the season, Ramirez has a .306/.396/.497 line, though he has struggled since returning from the disabled list.

Will a National League team claim Manny Ramirez?

Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

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MLBTR Polls Manny Ramirez

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Odds & Ends: Weeks, Blue Jays, Daisuke, Vazquez

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | August 25, 2010 at 4:13pm CDT

Links for Wednesday, after a roller coaster win by Joey Votto and the Reds…

  • GM Doug Melvin told MLB.com's Adam McCalvy that the Brewers won't discuss an extension with Rickie Weeks until the season's over. Weeks, who will hit free agency after 2011, recently switched agents.
  • Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Shawn Camp, Kevin Gregg and John Buck all hit waivers, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). There's no indication that the Blue Jays intend on moving any of their players this month.
  • Over at RotoAuthority, Tim Dierkes analyzes the seasons some top second basemen are having.
  • Number 18 is an 'ace number' in Japan, so Daisuke Matsuzaka has a clause in his contract ensuring that he gets to wear it. Matsuzaka explained to Alex Speier of WEEI.com that a childhood idol of his, Masumi Kuwata, wore the number for the Yomiuri Giants.
  • Ben Kabak of River Ave. Blues calls the Javier Vazquez trade a "true disappointment," but hesitates to label it a "true bust."
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post argues that the Mets should make decisions with the future of the organization in mind, instead of "letting a lame-duck manager make choices" to win as much as possible.
  • Manny Ramirez isn't the only Dodger on waivers. As Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times notes (on Twitter), Casey Blake, Jay Gibbons and Scott Podsednik also hit the waiver wire today.
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Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers Toronto Blue Jays Casey Blake Daisuke Matsuzaka Jason Frasor Jay Gibbons John Buck Kevin Gregg Rickie Weeks Scott Downs Scott Podsednik Shawn Camp

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Yankees Do Not Intend To Claim Kuroda

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | August 25, 2010 at 2:33pm CDT

Yankees GM Brian Cashman says the Yankees don’t intend to claim Dodgers starter Hiroki Kuroda, according to Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com. In fact, the Yankees maintain that they are content to stand pat.

“Right now I'm not interested in adding anyone," Cashman said. "I like the team we have and I think we have what it takes to get the job done."

Kuroda hit waivers yesterday, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, but Cashman says he isn’t hoping to find a pitcher through a waiver claim or trade.

"I haven't thought about [Kuroda]. I don't even know if he's on waivers yet," Cashman said. "Besides, I'd be hard-pressed to find a pitcher on the waiver wire who can pitch better for us than Dustin Moseley has."

The Yankees and Rays are tied for first place in the AL East with identical 78-48 records. At this point, the Red Sox, who claimed Johnny Damon on waivers, appear to have been the most active of the three division rivals.

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New York Yankees Hiroki Kuroda

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Manny Ramirez On Waivers

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | August 25, 2010 at 2:09pm CDT

The Dodgers placed Manny Ramirez on waivers, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. As Morosi explains, teams have until Friday to claim Ramirez. If there's a claim, the Dodgers will have until next Tuesday to work out a trade. 

The Pirates have the National League's worst record, so they get first dibs on Ramirez. If every NL team from the Pirates to the Padres passes on Ramirez, American League teams will have the chance to claim the slugger. That's when things could get interesting; the White Sox intend to claim Ramirez, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Since they have a worse record than any other AL contender, Chicago will have the chance to claim Ramirez if he makes it past all 15 NL clubs.

As ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported earlier in the week, about three quarters of Ramirez’s salary is deferred. That means he makes just $1.1MM between now and the end of the season despite his hefty $20MM salary. Ramirez earns the remaining $3.4MM in deferred payments, which would presumably make his salary easier to absorb.

Click here for more details on trading in August.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Manny Ramirez

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Twins Claim Randy Flores

By Tim Dierkes | August 25, 2010 at 1:57pm CDT

The Twins claimed lefty reliever Randy Flores off waivers from the Rockies, according to a press release. The 35-year-old posted a 2.96 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 27.1 innings for the Rockies this year, but the Rockies designated him for assignment last week. He earns a total of $650K this year and hits free agency after the season, so the Twins make only a minor financial commitment.

The Twins transferred another lefty reliever, Ron Mahay to the 60-day DL in a corresponding move. With Mahay and Jose Mijares injured, the Twins had a clear need for left-handed relief and it didn't take long for GM Bill Smith to address it cheaply.

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Colorado Rockies Minnesota Twins Transactions Randy Flores

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