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Archives for September 2010

Non-Tender Candidate: Conor Jackson

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When Billy Beane traded for Conor Jackson this June, he was presumably hoping to see the left fielder return to his 2006-08 form. For three years, Jackson combined patience and doubles power to be a productive piece of the Diamondbacks offense, so the former top prospect clearly has the ability to handle major league pitching.

But the player Beane acquired for reliever Sam Demel did not produce. Jackson, who missed all but 30 games in 2009 with Valley Fever, posted a .228/.362/.316 line in Oakland with one homer. He's now out for the season with a sports hernia, and he only batted 69 times, but his numbers weren't noticeably different in Arizona. Jackson doesn't have much to show for 2009 or 2010, consecutive injury-plagued seasons that have turned him into a non-tender candidate.

The D'Backs raised Jackson's salary from $3.05MM to $3.1MM last offseason, but the A's may not feel comfortable paying him over $3MM in 2011, Jackson's final season as an arbitration eligible player. In fact, Jackson's injuries and poor performance suggest the A's are likely to non-tender him. Click here to vote on Oakland's choice and here to view the results.

Rockies Have Considered Trading For A Starter

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The Rockies have considered trading for a starting pitcher to help them reach the playoffs, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Twitter link). No acquisition would be eligible to play in the postseason, so any starter the Rockies add will be cheering on the sidelines with Octavio Dotel if the team reaches the playoffs.

The third place Rockies trail the Giants by 1.5 games in the jam-packed NL West, so every win matters immensely. Since Jason Hammel is dealing with a dead arm, the Rockies could use some pitching to complement the offensive fireworks of Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. Aaron Harang and Dave Bush are not fits for Colorado, according to Olney, who suggests Jake Westbrook could be a fit.

Explaining Non-Tenders

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Matt Capps, D.J. Carrasco and Kelly Johnson were all non-tendered last offseason. One year later, we’re well on our way to welcoming another class of non-tenders to the club. It can be a confusing kind of transaction, so here’s an explanation of what exactly a non-tender is.

To tender a player a contract is to offer a contract, but non-tenders refer to a specific kind of offer: offers of arbitration. Rules and precedent shape the kind of salary a player can expect through arbitration, so players under team control usually get raises through the process. 

For example, Joey Votto isn’t eligible for free agency yet, but he and agent Dan Lozano have some say in his future earnings. If the Reds offered Votto $750K in arbitration this offseason, Lozano and Votto could counter with a $4MM proposal and win. Arbitration can be expensive for teams, since a player’s salary depends in part on his previous earnings and comparable players.

Players generally earn $400K or so for their first few major league seasons, so they’re usually relatively cheap in their first arbitration seasons, but players entering their second, third or (for super twos) fourth arbitration seasons stand to make more money if they’re tendered an offer. 

If an arbitration eligible player hasn’t performed well, but projects to earn a considerable amount, his team will likely consider a non-tender. That means they have turned down the option to negotiate a contract with that player through arbitration, but it doesn’t mean the player’s going to sign elsewhere.

Jonny Gomes and Jack Cust both re-signed with their former teams after being non-tendered last winter. Both took paycuts, so the Reds and A’s saved money, but they risked losing the players to rival teams. (After a player is non-tendered he hits free agency and can sign anywhere.)

It’s complicated, but here’s what you need to know: teams non-tender players when they would rather risk losing the players to another team than go through the potentially expensive arbitration process.

Red Sox Rumors: Beltre, Hall, Werth

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The Red Sox, who could officially be eliminated from the playoffs this week, are looking ahead to the 2011 season. Here's the latest on what to expect from next year's team:

Poll: Extending Josh Hamilton

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When he’s on the field, Josh Hamilton is one of the best players in the game. Hamilton’s five-tool ability has translated into results for a few seasons now and at 29 he leads the American League in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

But Hamilton, who had completed just one full season in the major leagues before this year, has not played since bruising his ribs in early September. Injuries have prevented Hamilton from playing more regularly throughout his career, so questions about his ability to stay on the field would no doubt contribute to the Rangers’ willingness to guarantee tens of millions of dollars. At this point, Rangers GM Jon Daniels tells Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News that he isn’t worried about extending Hamilton.

"Our only focus as it relates to Josh right now is getting him healthy and back in the lineup," Daniels said. "The contractual stuff will take care of itself."

The Rangers have Hamilton under team control for two seasons after this so they don’t face the same urgency that the Cardinals do with their franchise player. Hamilton won’t cost nearly as much as Albert Pujols, but he’s in a position to demand more than $40MM over four years, no small amount of money. It’s a good problem to have – how would you address it if you were in Daniels’ position?

Would you offer Josh Hamilton a long-term extension?

Click here to take the survey and here to see the results.

Odds & Ends: Pirates, Jenks, Jays, D’Backs GM, Torre

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Links for Monday night, as the Phillies extend their NL East lead with an eighth consecutive win….

  • Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette provides a lengthy preview of the 2011 Pirates, speculating about how the team may improve its roster.
  • Ozzie Guillen tells Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune that he has no idea whether the White Sox' front office plans to retain Bobby Jenks next year.
  • The Toronto Sun's Ken Fidlin believes that questions about J.P. Arencibia behind the plate and Adam Lind at first base mean that the Jays could attempt to bring back John Buck and Lyle Overbay.
  • Ed Price of AOL FanHouse reports (via Twitter) that Logan White is out of the running in the Diamondbacks' search for a general manager. ESPN.com's Buster Olney confirms (via Twitter) that it appears to be a two-man race between Kevin Towers and Jerry Dipoto. Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports suggests that the D'Backs are torn between the appeal of Towers and loyalty to Dipoto; they should name a GM this week.
  • Joe Torre hasn't ruled out managing the Mets or another club, writes Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork. Torre told WFAN: "I don't really anticipate managing again, but I think it would be unfair not to listen just out of curiosity to see if something excites me."
  • Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that Coco Crisp would like to return to Oakland next year, though he knows he'll have little say in whether his 2011 option is exercised.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Rafael Soriano

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According to David Ortiz, Rafael Soriano deserves to be signed to a five-year contract this winter. While Soriano is enjoying a fantastic season for the Tampa Bay Rays, he probably shouldn't hold out hope for a B.J. Ryan-esque deal. That doesn't mean, however, that Soriano won't be one of the most interesting free agents on the market this winter.

A year ago, Soriano unexpectedly accepted an arbitration offer from the Braves, since he and his agent were worried the right-hander's Type A designation would make teams reluctant to give up two draft picks to sign him. The Braves, who added Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito to their bullpen, had no room in their budget for Soriano and dealt him to the Rays. This year, Soriano is in a similar situation; not only is he projected to be a Type A again, but his 91.232 Elias score currently ranks him ahead of every major free agent, including Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, and Jayson Werth.

Of course, barring a late-season collapse, Soriano will be coming off a campaign even more impressive than his 2009. His strikeout rate has dipped a little, but his ERA (1.82) and WHIP (0.79) have improved significantly, and those 43 saves won't hurt his stock either. The 30-year-old seems more likely to turn down arbitration and pursue a multi-year deal this time around, which puts Tampa Bay in a win-win situation. If Soriano accepts arbitration, he would be a valuable trade chip for the cost-cutting Rays. If the righty turns down arbitration, the Rays could be looking at not only a sandwich pick, but a first round selection as well, given his Elias ranking. If a club with an unprotected first round pick signed both Soriano and Victor Martinez, for instance, that team would be sending their first rounder to the Rays, rather than the Red Sox.

Last winter, Fernando Rodney and Jose Valverde signed two-year guarantees worth $11.5MM and $14MM respectively. Rodney earned his contract in part due to a gaudy save total (37), while Valverde earned his due to impressive ratios (2.33 ERA, 9.3 K/9). Not only has Soriano bested Rodney's save count and many of Valverde's peripherals this year, but he'll also be younger than either right-hander was when they signed their deals.

So what sort of contract could Soriano command this winter? Even if his multiple elbow surgeries make some suitors wary, Soriano's consecutive healthy, effective seasons should earn him a lucrative multi-year pact. The 30-year-old should at least receive a two-year offer worth $18MM or so, and he could end up doing even better than that. Especially if Ortiz lands a general manager job.

Non-Tender Candidate: Brian Tallet

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Heading into this season, Brian Tallet's second year of arbitration eligibility, the Blue Jays nearly doubled the left-hander's 2009 salary, signing him for $2MM. Tallet hadn't enjoyed an overly successful 2009, recording a 5.32 ERA and 1.67 K/BB, but he was a useful innings eater for the Jays, starting 25 games and pitching 160.2 IP.

In 2010, Tallet hasn't even provided value as an innings eater, earning less than half the playing time he did a year ago. In 30 appearances (five starts), the southpaw, who turns 33 tomorrow, has seen his ERA (6.28) and BB/9 (4.5) rise, while his strikeout rate (5.9 K/9) has declined. Even if Tallet didn't receive a raise through arbitration this winter, it seems unlikely that the Jays would want to pay $2MM to a player coming off such an underwhelming season.

Tallet does have two factors working in his favor, however: three of Toronto's late-inning relievers (Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, and Jason Frasor) are facing possible free agency, meaning there could be plenty of holes to fill in the club's bullpen. Plus, the silver lining in Tallet's 2010 season has been his ability to shut down left-handed hitters. In 106 plate appearances against Tallet, lefties have hit just .181/.236/.362, striking out 26 times. The Jays have plenty of other options to fill out their 2011 rotation, so they could decide to retain Tallet not in a starting or mop-up role, but as a left-handed specialist out of the 'pen. At $2MM, there are worse investments.

Still, the 32-year-old's numbers against lefties this year may not translate to future success – for his career, left-handers have a .740 OPS against Tallet. And even if he continued to shut down lefties, the market price for LOOGYs isn't high. It took Joe Beimel, who has filled a similar role in Colorado this season, nearly the entire offseason to land a one-year, $850K minor league deal with the Rockies.

Will Tallet be non-tendered by the Blue Jays? Click here to weigh in with your vote, and click here to view the results of the poll.

Poll: Jayson Werth’s Next Contract

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You could make the argument that Jayson Werth has been the best everyday player on the best team in the National League this year. He has a .291/.381/.521 line, and leads the league in doubles and pitches seen per plate appearance.

That will play in Werth's favor when he hits free agency later this year, but remember that Werth will be up against Carl Crawford, who is two years younger and has a better defensive reputation. Unlike Crawford and many other members of this year's free agent class, Werth has only been a full-time player for three years. Werth will get a multi-year deal from someone, but the details are harder to predict. 

Agent Scott Boras says Werth is more comparable to Matt Holliday (who signed for $120MM) than Jason Bay (who signed for $66MM), but it's time to see what you think:

Will Jayson Werth sign for more than $100MM?

Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

Boras: Werth Can Play Center, Is “Different” Than Bay

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It didn’t take long for Scott Boras to start hinting at Jayson Werth’s free agent value. The agent, who recently added Werth to his long list of clients, suggested to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that the outfielder will be seeking more than the $66MM Jason Bay obtained as a free agent last winter. Without making demands or mentioning dollar figures, Boras made it clear that he considers Werth more similar to Matt Holliday (a Boras client who signed a $120MM deal) than Bay.

“Werth is a totally different type of player [than Bay],” Boras said. “He’s an athlete who can play center field, run, steal bases, be a Gold Glove type outfielder.”

Werth, who has started 18 games in center this year, has spent most of the season in right, but Boras made it clear that the 31-year-old is an option for teams looking to add a center fielder.

“He has the closing speed to play center,” Boras said. “It makes your team so different. Normally you get that production out of a corner outfielder.”

Though most around baseball assume that Werth, a projected Type A free agent, will leave the Phillies, Boras says his client may end up re-signing in Philadelphia.

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