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Archives for September 2010

Felipe Lopez’s Value To Boston

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After rejecting a waiver claim from the Padres, Felipe Lopez instead chose to sign in Boston for the final few games of the season. Earlier today, we learned that Lopez opted for his new destination because his ineligibility for the postseason roster wouldn't have let him feel like part of the team in San Diego.

Alex Speier of WEEI.com informs us that the Red Sox will pay Lopez around the same figure he would've made in San Diego (approximately $50,000) to finish out the season, and also points out that there's more value than simply depth for the end of the season.

Lopez could qualify as a Type B free agent, meaning that if the Red Sox choose to offer him arbitration following the season, and he declines, Boston would net a supplemental round pick. Obviously, Lopez's meager slash line of .231/.310/.340 is hardly anything to write home about, but he also signed for a low base salary of just $1MM in 2010.

Offering arbitration would be a low-cost risk that could pay out high dividends in the form of a supplemental round draft pick in 2011. If Lopez decides that he likes his surroundings in Boston and accepts the deal, he won't see a significant raise and the Red Sox can retain him as a utility player. He may have had a poor season, but he's just a year removed from a .310/.383/.427 season between the Diamondbacks and Brewers in which he was worth 3.9 wins above replacement.

Poll: The Best Record In Baseball

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There's just a little more than a week left in the season, and with the exception of the NL West and NL Wild Card, the playoff teams are all but set. Now it's just a matter of sorting out the seeding.

For most of the season it's been assumed that whoever won the AL East would finish the season with the best record in all of baseball, but suddenly that's not the case any more. The Phillies staked a claimed to best record with last night's win, their 11th in a row to put their season record at 93-61. Both the Rays and Twins sit half-a-game behind them at 92-61, and the Yankees are within a game of Philly with a 92-62 record. No other team is within six games of the Phillies.

Since the NL won the All Star Game and thus clinched home field advantage in the World Series, having the best record in baseball isn't worth much beyond bragging rights. That might not mean anything to the teams, but it certainly means something to us fans. Remember, you can always check out the reverse standings (for draft order purposes) at our page, but it's time to vote…

Which team will finish with the best record in baseball?

Click here to vote, and here to see the results.

Blue Jays Notes: Managers, Lewis, Scouting

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The big news in Toronto continues to be the incredible Jose Bautista, who launched his 51st and 52nd homers of the season tonight against Baltimore.  J-Bau aside, here are some other items from MLB's Canadian representative…

  • Bob Melvin and Eric Wedge both interviewed for the manager's position this past week, reports Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun.  Jays bench coach Nick Leyva is also scheduled for an upcoming interview.  Don Baylor and Juan Samuel have both expressed interest in the Toronto job after being asked by outgoing manager Cito Gaston.
  • Fred Lewis tells MLB.com's Jordan Bastian that he considers himself "an everyday position player" and doesn't know if he'll be back in Toronto in 2011.  Given the Jays' tentative 2011 starting outfield of Bautista, Vernon Wells and Travis Snider, it's hard to see Lewis taking one of those players' spots, but he could still return in a bench role.
  • Shi Davidi of the Canadian Press reports that the Blue Jays are putting a renewed emphasis on Latin American scouting and development.

Mike Napoli’s Trade Value

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The problem with Mike Napoli, as Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com puts it, is that he "is a 'tweener,' too inconsistent strictly as a hitter, not reliable enough as a catcher."  The Angels might not want to give such a "tweener" an arbitration raise above the $3.6MM that Napoli earned this season, which is why there have been rumors that Los Angeles will try to move Napoli over the winter.  

Given the dearth of power-hitting catchers, many teams would be willing to overlook Napoli's defensive shortcomings for a catcher who has 92 homers in 1778 career plate appearances and a career .839 OPS.  As an everyday player, however, Napoli has his limitations, many of which were on display this season.  Napoli has received a career-high 484 plate appearances thanks to his taking over the lion's share of time at first base after Kendry Morales was lost for the season in May. 

His power notwithstanding, Napoli has an underwhelming .247/.332/.488 slash line entering Friday's action.  These numbers are largely due to the fact that the right-handed hitting Napoli struggles against right-handed pitching; he has a .704 OPS vs. righties this year, as opposed to a whopping 1.082 OPS against southpaws.  (Napoli's career OPS splits are .798 against righties and .962 versus lefties.)  If put back into his comfort zone of facing primarily left-handed pitching, Napoli can be a force.  If a team has a left-handed hitting, defensive-minded platoon partner at catcher, Napoli is an ideal complement.

The catching market is always tough to predict in advance, but here are a few potential trade partners for the Halos…

* Florida.  The Marlins are known to be looking for catchers, though Napoli may be too expensive for their liking.

* New York.  Left-handed hitting Josh Thole will be the Mets' starter next season, so Napoli could be brought in to complement both Thole and another lefty bat (Ike Davis) at first.

* Chicago.  As with the Mets, the White Sox will have a youngster (Tyler Flowers) taking over the starting job.  This is presuming the Sox won't bring back A.J. Pierzynski, though Chicago could also maybe have a hole at first depending on if Paul Konerko signs elsewhere or retires.

* Texas.  Napoli could finally give the Rangers some stability behind the plate, though it's hard to see L.A. making a deal with their division rivals.

* Boston.  The Red Sox made a waiver claim on Napoli in August before the Angels pulled him back, and will need a catcher if Victor Martinez leaves as a free agent.

* Baltimore.  Speaking of Martinez, Napoli could be the Orioles' catcher/first base/DH backup plan should the team's pursuit of Martinez fall short.

If Napoli was dealt, Los Angeles would be left with Jeff Mathis and rookie Hank Conger behind the plate.  Conger, LAA's first-round pick in the 2006 draft, has an .825 OPS in 1705 minor league plate appearances and was rated the 84th overall prospect in baseball by Baseball America's preseason rankings.  Mathis is entering his second arbitration year after earning $1.3MM in 2010, but has had an overall poor season (as outlined by Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times).  The Angels could go into 2011 with a totally overhauled catching corps should they trade Napoli, non-tender Mathis and acquire a new veteran backstop to play alongside Conger.

Odds & Ends: Miller, Laird, Fielder, V-Mart

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As the Giants pick up a major win over the Rockies tonight, here are some news items….

Dodgers Notes: Gibbons, McCourts, Lilly

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Some news items as the Dodgers do battle with the D'Backs tonight…

  • Jay Gibbons is expected to be re-signed by L.A., writes MLB.com's Ken Gurnick.  Gibbons may get some interest from Japanese teams, but it seems likely the California native will stay close to home.
  • There has been no settlement yet in the ongoing McCourt divorce case, tweets the Los Angeles Times' Dylan Hernandez.  The trial continues on Monday.
  • The Dodgers could be setting themselves up for a future bad contract if they re-sign Ted Lilly to a long-term deal, warns Jon Weisman of ESPNLosAngeles.com.

Red Sox Sign Felipe Lopez

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Felipe Lopez has joined the Red Sox for the remainder of the 2010 season, reports Scott Miller of CBSSports.com.  Lopez was released by St. Louis on Tuesday and was claimed on waivers by the Padres earlier today.  Lopez chose to veto San Diego's offer and instead signed with the Red Sox. 

A source tells Miller that one of the reasons that Boston was interested in Lopez was because, as a Type B free agent, the team can get a compensation pick if Lopez signs elsewhere in the winter (provided he turns down Boston's offer of arbitration).  As Miller points out, it's odd that Lopez would pass on the chance to play in a pennant race with San Diego, even though he wouldn't have qualified for the Padres' postseason roster anyway.

Ozzie Guillen Wants Contract Extension?

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FRIDAY, 8:00pm: Guillen clarified today that he isn't specifically seeking out or asking for a contract extension, but "he just wants to know where he stands in the eyes of the organization," tweets Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times.  The Chicago Tribune's Mark Gonzales passes on this quote from the White Sox manager (via Twitter): "My thing is, every year, every manager, every player, they want to know what’s my stance. That’s it."

WEDNESDAY, 7:36pm: White Sox skipper Ozzie Guillen told reporters this evening that he is seeking a contract extension, writes Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. 

"My mind is ready," Guillen said, while adding that he plans to sell his home in Miami and buy a house in Chicago. "I want to be here as long as I can. I want to be with the White Sox for the rest of my career, but this is a business. I like to know what they have in mind. It's nice to have an extension. You have security but meanwhile, I have another year on the contract."

The controversial manager also stressed that he is not tempted to test the waters of a potentially wide-open free agent market.  Guillen's current deal is guaranteed through the 2011 season.

Extension Candidate: Carlos Marmol

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Carlos Marmol and the Cubs agreed to a one-year, $2.125MM contract last February as the reliever and club avoided a hearing in Marmol's first arbitration season.  The deal gave Marmol almost four times what he earned in 2009, and he'll be up for another big raise this winter whether he and the Cubs work out another one-year deal or if they pursue a longer-term option.

Marmol took over as Chicago's closer midway through the 2009 season, but his control problems made some wonder whether Marmol could last in the role.  While Marmol is still walking more batters than the Cubs would like (a 6.1 BB/9 rate), it's still an improvement over the 7.9 BB/9 rate that he posted last year.  More importantly, Marmol has also improved his ERA, WHIP, hits/9 rate and K/BB ratio from 2009, and upped his already-impressive 11.3 K/9 rate last season to a whopping 15.9 K/9 in 2010.  His 62 games finished are also the most in baseball.

Should the Cubs wish to pursue a one-year deal with Marmol again, Heath Bell's one-year, $4MM deal with the Padres last winter is a suitable model.  Bell, like Marmol, was coming off his first season as his team's closer and delivered an All-Star performance.  Bell's 2009 and Marmol's 2010 were pretty similarly impressive — Bell had the better K/BB ratio, BB/9 and WHIP, while Marmol has the superior K/9 rate, HR/9, hits/9, and has already thrown more innings.  Bell did have the advantage of pitching at PETCO Park, so between that and inflation, Marmol has an argument that he should earn closer to $5MM than $4MM.

In terms of a multi-year option, Marmol and agent Barry Praver will look at Brian Wilson's two-year, $15MM extension with San Francisco as a starting point.  While Wilson has certainly pitched well enough this season to lower some of the eyebrows that were raised when he signed that extension last winter, the Cubs may hesitate to commit that much money to Marmol given his still-present control issues.  It should be noted, however, that even with Marmol's 2009 wildness, he still put up a 3.41 ERA and held opposing batters to a .170 average, so it's not like he pitched poorly.  If Marmol's 2011 season is akin to his 2009, it would still be a campaign that the Cubs wouldn't feel sick about paying around $7.5MM to keep.

Given Marmol's high ceiling, the Cubs might be wise to shoot for an option-heavy contract similar to the one that their ex-closer Kevin Gregg received from the Blue Jays last winter.  Gregg received $2.75MM for 2010, and the Jays can pick up a 2011 option for $4.5MM or an option for both 2011 and 2012 for a total of $8.75MM.  Obviously Toronto was able to get such a team-friendly deal since Gregg struggled in 2009, but if the Cubs double the dollar amounts, Marmol might accept the cost-certainty.  The last option year (that would theoretically cover Marmol's first free agent year) could be adjusted to a mutual option, giving Marmol the ability to walk away after 2012 if he thinks there's an eight-figure offer on the market.  If Marmol keeps up his form from the last four seasons, such an offer would certainly exist.

Chicago already has approximately $103MM committed to next year's payroll, and that's not counting the pay bump that Geovany Soto (an extension candidate himself) will get in his first year of arbitration.  Given the fungibility of relief pitching, the Cubs may lock up Marmol for next year and revisit his contract situation next offseason, thus taking the risk of having to pay more in 2012 for a pitcher who is on the cusp of being one of baseball's elite closers.  Either that or a combination of the Wilson and Gregg contracts — a two-year, $15MM deal with a team option to buy out Marmol's first free agent year for $10MM.

 

Francisco Rodriguez’s Trade Value

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Two winters ago, Francisco Rodriguez was the most attractive free agent closer around, but if the Mets put him on the trade market this winter, it's hard to imagine that interest would be anything but tepid. With so much uncertainty surrounding the Mets front office, most attempts to predict the team's offseason moves are speculative, but it's safe to say that Rodriguez, now on the disqualified list, may end up on the trade market this winter. 

Last month, Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested that Rodriguez is nearly untradeable. A post-game outburst in August led to an arrest – not the sort of behavior teams look for from their players. Worse still, Rodriguez injured a ligament in his thumb and required surgery. He should be ready for the 2011 season, but teams can't be completely certain about the reliever's health.

Rodriguez isn't cheap, either. He makes $11.5MM in 2011 and will earn a $3.5MM buyout for the 2012 portion of his contract, even if his option doesn't vest. In other words, any team acquiring Rodriguez will face a $15MM commitment for a pitcher whose fastball has slowed down 4 mph over the course of the last four seasons.

But Rodriguez can pitch, despite the dropoff in velocity. He had 25 saves and a 2.20 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 before his injury. He's just 28, but he has been one of the most dominant late-inning relievers in baseball for most of the last decade and has already made 21 postseason appearances. K-Rod has lived up to his nickname, striking out far more than a batter per inning over the course of his career.

Teams will presumably shy away from him because of his reputation as a hot-head, but supposed problem players like Manny Ramirez (2008), Vicente Padilla (2009) and Yunel Escobar (2010) have rewarded the teams that looked past their reputations. Rodriguez could do the same, but a team would have to trade for him first. At this point, it looks like the Mets would have to take on significant salary to make a deal, and even if the front office were willing to do so, the odds would be stacked against a trade.

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