Archives for July 2011

Nats Rumors: Storen, Clippard, Desmond, Gorzelanny

By Tim Dierkes | July 18, 2011 at 1:03pm CDT

The Nationals are listening on top relievers Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, but such a trade would have to fill a specific long-term need such as center field. Teams are calling on Storen, Clippard, and Todd Coffey.

Potential center field targets for Washington include B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn, Colby Rasmus, and Denard Span, writes Rosenthal. He believes that a reliever alone probably would not bring back a center fielder, but the Nats could also trade shortstop Ian Desmond since some club officials would like to move Danny Espinosa to shortstop.

Storen is under team control through 2016, Clippard and Desmond through '15. Desmond would be an interesting name for teams seeking shortstop help, though he's limped to a .226/.269/.311 line in 361 plate appearances this year.

The Nationals also have starting pitching to spare, as ESPN's Jerry Crasnick tweets that they will move Jason Marquis, Livan Hernandez, and Tom Gorzelanny. Gorzelanny is a bit of a surprise, as he's got strong strikeout and walk rates and is under team control through 2013.

Rockies Could Move Relievers

By Tim Dierkes | July 18, 2011 at 12:49pm CDT

The Rockies are currently 9.5 games out in the NL West. They don't have any crucial players heading to free agency after the season, but they may still have some expendable veterans. In particular, MLB.com's Thomas Harding says "information is surfacing that the Rockies could be willing to deal any of three key right-handed relievers" – Huston Street, Rafael Betancourt, and Matt Belisle.

Street, 28 in August, has a 3.56 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 1.67 HR/9, and 39.0% groundball rate in 43 innings this year. At the deadline he'll have $2.37MM left on his contract this year, plus $7.5MM in '12 and a $500K buyout after that season for a total of $10.37MM. Yesterday, Tracy Ringolsby of FOX Sports wrote that there have been "recent inquiries" on Street. However, keep in mind that GM Dan O'Dowd has no directive to shed salary. If Street is dealt, Matt Lindstrom would probably close, as indicated on our depth chart at CloserNews.

Betancourt, 36, has a 4.66 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 1.47 HR/9, and 30.6% groundball rate in 36 2/3 innings. His numbers are similar to Street's in that he limits free passes but is prone to the longball. Betancourt will have $1.22MM left this year at the deadline, plus $4MM in '12 and a $250K buyout after that season for a total of $5.47MM. Since he doesn't have saves on his resume, he earns half as much as Street.

Belisle, 31, has a 3.46 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.86 HR/9, and 46.8% groundball rate in 41 2/3 innings. He will have $1.05MM left this year at the deadline and $3.775MM in '12 for a total of $4.825MM. This is the first time his name has been mentioned as a potential trade target.

The Yankees, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Phillies, and Rangers are contenders who are in the hunt for relief help.

Starting Pitcher Trade Candidates By SIERA

By Tim Dierkes | July 18, 2011 at 11:41am CDT

SIERA is an estimator of what a pitcher's ERA would be with average luck, defense, and park, by looking at other pitchers with similar strikeouts, walks, and ground ball rates in recent seasons. The stat goes a step further than similar estimators by accounting for the batting average on balls in play and home run per flyball rates of similar pitchers. Here's your trade candidate SIERA leaderboard from FanGraphs, which now carries an improved version of the stat:

Anibal Sanchez – 3.07
Rich Harden – 3.20 (18 innings)
Erik Bedard – 3.23
Derek Lowe – 3.52
Brandon McCarthy – 3.58
Wandy Rodriguez – 3.60
Ricky Nolasco – 3.60
Chris Capuano – 3.61
Edwin Jackson – 3.62
Ubaldo Jimenez – 3.64
Hiroki Kuroda – 3.68
Tom Gorzelanny – 3.70
Ted Lilly – 3.79
Jeff Niemann – 3.92
Brett Myers – 3.94
John Danks – 4.05
Aaron Harang – 4.05
Jason Marquis – 4.08
Livan Hernandez – 4.20
Javier Vazquez – 4.26
Jeff Francis – 4.26
Jeremy Guthrie – 4.27
Bruce Chen – 4.58
Kyle Davies – 4.61
Aaron Cook - 4.66 (38 2/3 innings)

There is a subjective element in choosing trade candidates – for example, it was my choice to leave off James Shields and include McCarthy. For the most part I tried to be inclusive, including players like Sanchez, Nolasco, and Jimenez even though they are unlikely to be dealt.

Reviewing Royals Trade Candidates

By Tim Dierkes | July 18, 2011 at 11:20am CDT

The Royals are on the rise, but it's not happening this year. Let's review their primary trade candidates.

The Royals are pushing Melky Cabrera rather than Jeff Francoeur, wrote Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports yesterday. However, SI's Jon Heyman tweeted today that the Royals are not anxious to trade either outfielder, with both expected back next year. Francoeur has a mutual option, while Cabrera will be arbitration eligible. Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi wrote recently that the Phillies and Angels have shown interest in Cabrera, while the Giants have light interest.
Heyman finds infielder Wilson Betemit more likely to be dealt. The FOX writers noted the Brewers' interest a couple of days ago. The Pirates make some sense as well, in my opinion.
Southpaw Jeff Francis owns a 4.62 ERA in 122 2/3 innings and should draw interest. Likewise for Bruce Chen. Francis has not been linked to any specific teams yet, but during the offseason the Pirates, Rangers, and Yankees were among the teams in on him.
The Royals would let righty Jeff Suppan go to any team seeking big league help, tweets Heyman. The 36-year-old veteran has a 4.68 ERA, 4.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 1.3 HR/9 in 115 1/3 Triple-A innings this year.

Tigers Interested In Jeremy Guthrie

By Tim Dierkes | July 18, 2011 at 11:02am CDT

The Tigers have interest in Orioles righty Jeremy Guthrie, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The 32-year-old is behind Ubaldo Jimenez and Hiroki Kuroda on Detroit's wish list, however.

Guthrie sports a 4.45 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9, and 35.7% groundball rate in 123 1/3 innings this year. He's earning $5.75MM this year, and depending on how his peers do in arbitration, Guthrie could jump to the $10MM range in 2012. Word is that the Orioles will listen on Guthrie, but they'll need to get pitching back in return.

Morosi notes that the Orioles had a Major League scout at Sunday's game between the Triple-A affiliates of the Tigers and Yankees. Not only did the Tigers' second-best pitching prospect Andy Oliver start that contest, but the Tigers' front office instructed manager Phil Nevin to use Charlie Furbush. It appears that the Tigers and Orioles match up well for a Guthrie trade.

On the Derek Lowe front, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick tweets that the chances of the Tigers acquiring him are extremely low. He says the Braves would have to pick up at least 75% of the $21MM owed to Lowe through next year, so about $15.75MM, and that's not happening. Surely there's a team that values Lowe at more than $5.25MM through 2012.

Players With 10-and-5 Rights

By Tim Dierkes | July 18, 2011 at 10:23am CDT

10-and-5 rights are tough to earn – a player needs ten years in the Majors, the last five with his current team. The players' union wants these rights to mean something, so players are discouraged from waiving them. The rights are still waived at times – for example, Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman eventually approved trades last summer.

Here's our list of players with 10-and-5 rights:

Carlos Beltran
Mark Buehrle
Chris Carpenter
Ryan Dempster
Rafael Furcal
Carlos Guillen
Todd Helton
Tim Hudson
Brandon Inge
Derek Jeter
Chipper Jones
Paul Konerko
John McDonald
Joe Nathan
Magglio Ordonez
David Ortiz
A.J. Pierzynski
Jorge Posada
Albert Pujols
Aramis Ramirez
Mariano Rivera
Alex Rodriguez
Jimmy Rollins
Ichiro Suzuki
Jason Varitek
Tim Wakefield
Michael Young

It appears that Carlos Zambrano will join the club on August 7th, and Josh Beckett will achieve 10-and-5 rights on August 19th. Zambrano, of course, already has a full no-trade clause as part of his contract.

Pirates Eyeing Hunter Pence

By Tim Dierkes | July 18, 2011 at 7:38am CDT

The Pirates have scouted Astros outfielder Hunter Pence with the trade deadline in mind, reports Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The Astros hosted the Bucs over the weekend, losing two of three. Yesterday morning, Pence noted that the possibility of being traded is completely out of his hands. At .320/.363/.490, he makes a coveted trade target in a market thin on bats.

Pence said before yesterday's game that everyone's been talking about the Pirates, who are a half game out in the NL Central with over 40% of the season remaining. On Friday, ESPN's Buster Olney reported that the Astros would have to be "overwhelmed" to part with Pence. I imagine Astros GM Ed Wade would require even more from the Pirates for the 28-year-old, since they'd have to compete against him through the 2013 season. Plus, the Bucs' top prospects are not close to the Majors, so they might be a tough sell to the Astros' fanbase. The two division rivals haven't matched up on a significant trade in a decade, when the Astros acquired Pirates closer Mike Williams for Tony McKnight. That deal was authored by Gerry Hunsicker and Dave Littlefield.

Biertempfel mentions one intriguing possibility, which I tossed out there a week ago: Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez. The former Pirate could provide a big-time offensive boost from the hot corner for the season's final two months. One issue: on June 7th, Ramirez's agent Paul Kinzer explained that Ramirez has a full no-trade clause and doesn't want to go anywhere. Kinzer did leave the door open a crack, though. And Pirates GM Neal Huntington told Biertempfel in a general sense that "no-trade clauses are often used as leverage," unless a player flat-out doesn't want to be dealt to a particular club. The other issue might be negotiating away Ramirez's $16MM club option for 2012, which vests upon a trade.

The Pirates have checked in on the Athletics' Josh Willingham and Conor Jackson, tweeted ESPN's Jerry Crasnick last night. For more players the team could pursue, check out my post from a week ago.

Quick Hits: Rockies, Pirates, Kuroda

By Dan Mennella | July 17, 2011 at 10:50pm CDT

Here's some late-night linkage as the Rays and Red Sox head to extras in Tampa …

The Rockies are drawing interest from trade suitors on outfielder Ryan Spilborghs and reliever Rafael Betancourt, and some teams have recently inquired about closer Huston Street, writes Tracy Ringolsby of FOXSports.com. Spilborghs is a free agent at season's end, while Betancourt and Street are both under contract through 2012 with options for 2013.
The Pirates are looking for bats and have checked with the Athletics on Josh Willingham and Conor Jackson, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (via Twitter).
The Dodgers are getting "a lot of play" on right-hander Hiroki Kuroda, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports (via Twitter). Kuroda, however, has a full no-trade clause, and as we found out earlier today, some execs think he won't accept a trade to an East Coast team.

MLBTR Originals: 7/10/11/ – 7/16/11

By Dan Mennella | July 17, 2011 at 10:17pm CDT

Here's a retrospective on the original works we published here at MLBTR last week:

Tim Dierkes examined which contenders could use an upgrade in left field.
Tim analyzed the trade candidacy of Cubs first baseman Carlos Pena.
We launched CloserNews.com!
If you've wondered what the Pirates and Rays might do if they become sellers, Tim considered that very thing.
Ben Nicholson-Smith had a look at which trade candidates are playing well.
This year's trade market has its strengths and weaknesses. Tim broke it down.
Tim looked at the least likely All-Stars at this year's Midsummer Classic. Here's a look at which agencies had the most All-Stars.
We identified a handful of players in the offseason who were facing make or break campaigns in 2011. Ben gave an update on them.
Here's the transcript to Tim's chat with MLBTR readers.
With Carlos Beltran again on the trade block, Ben recalled what the Royals got for the outfielder when they traded him in 2004.
Here's how to use MLBTR.
Ben looked at the Elias rankings for relievers headed to free agency.
Mike Axisa rounded up some of the best pieces from various baseball blogs. Among the hot topics: Francisco Rodriguez, Derek Holland and James Shields.

Week In Review: 7/10/11 – 7/16/11

By Steve Adams | July 17, 2011 at 9:36pm CDT

Things will really be picking up around here over the next couple of weeks, and we already saw some fireworks fly this week. Let's take a look back:

The Brewers acquired Francisco Rodriguez and nearly $6MM cash for a pair of players to be named later. Oddly, Milwaukee was on K-Rod's no-trade list, but the Mets never received the list from his former agent Paul Kinzer. K-Rod restructured his contract to waive the $17.5MM vesting option in favor of additional compensation, so the Brewers can feel comfortable using him or John Axford to close out games. Here's some links related to the K-Rod trade.
The Cardinals locked up one of their best young arms, signing Jaime Garcia to a four-year deal worth $27.5MM guaranteed and a pair of club options.
Likewise, the Orioles agreed to an extension with shortstop J.J. Hardy.
Garcia wasn't the only way the Cards made headlines this week though, as rumors that they may be willing to trade Colby Rasmus resurfaced. We heard that the Rays had serious discussions with St. Louis regarding Rasmus in 2010, but it's not likely that he'll be moved this summer.
The Dodgers, Rockies, and Braves replaced the Tigers, Cubs, and Cardinals on the no-trade list for Royals' closer Joakim Soria. Soria's list also includes the Phillies, Yankees, and Red Sox, though the asking price for him is said to be "exorbitant."
The Braves signed their first-round draft pick, Sean Gilmartin, and the Giants signed supplemental-round pick Kyle Crick.
The Astros signed 16-year-old Panamanian Harold Arauz.
The Giants have money to spend, and are looking to add an impact hitter, so it's no surprise to hear that they're one of the most serious suitors for Carlos Beltran.
Rockies righty Ubaldo Jimenez surfaced in trade rumors that persisted throughout the week, although a deal seems unlikely.
An extension for Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury appears unlikely to be completed during the season.
Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder, a free-agent-to-be, said he'd be open to being a DH for an AL club, should he sign with one this offseason.
ESPN's Keith Law released his midseason Top 50 prospects list (ESPN Insider required), headlined by Bryce Harper.
The Pirates and Angels discussed a trade of Garrett Jones for Jeff Mathis.
Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria said he's seeking a third baseman and starting pitching, though not necessariy before the deadline.
The Cubs won't trade Jeff Baker.
The Cardinals checked in on the Blue Jays' surplus of right-handed relievers.
The Tigers expressed interest in Braves righty Derek Lowe, and the Red Sox expressed interest in Dodgers righty Hiroki Kuroda.
The Brewers and Royals discussed a swap involving third baseman Wilson Betemit.
The Pirates and Rockies checked in with the Twins on Kevin Slowey.
The Royals want pitching for Jeff Francoeur, who wants to stay in Kansas City.
The Reds are seeking bullpen help, and their Ohio rivals, the Indians, are looking for offensive help.
The Dodgers acquired Juan Rivera for a player to be named later, and designated Marcus Thames for assignment in order to make room for him. Rivera had been DFA'ed himself a week prior.
There were several minor league deals: The Mets signed Gustavo Chacin. The White Sox signed Doug Davis. The Cubs signed Dave Bush. The Yankees signed J.C. Romero
And several players were cut loose: The Mariners released Charlie Haeger. The Diamondbacks designated Wily Mo Pena for assignment. The Rangers designated Zach Phillips for assignment. Texas also released Manny Delcarmen and Seth McClung. The Athletics released Bobby Cramer.
Bengie Molina announced that he does not intend to play in 2011.

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