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Archives for October 2011

NL Central Notes: Pujols, Oswalt, Pirates, LaHair

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The Cardinals and their fans may still be celebrating Friday's World Series victory, but it won't be long before a pair of the club's most prominent members will face decisions on their futures. Cards president Bill DeWitt III spoke to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports about Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa, two men without contracts for 2012:

"I don't want to prognosticate at all, but in the next week or so we'll hear from [La Russa]…. Albert may take a little while, I guess…. Who knows? Maybe we'll get something done in the quiet period (during which teams are only permitted to negotiate with their own free agents). But if you've waited this long, you're probably going to see what's out there."

Here are the rest of the morning's notes and rumors from the NL Central:

  • Bryan Burwell of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch is surprised by DeWitt's lack of urgency regarding Pujols, and wonders if it's a good idea to allow the slugger to be wooed by teams who may be more aggressive than the Cardinals.
  • Fielding Reds-related questions for the Dayton Daily News, Hal McCoy says it's unlikely that Cincinnati makes a play for Roy Oswalt.
  • The Pirates will likely look at second- or third-tier free agents, but they won't make a huge splash this winter, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Biertempfel says the Bucs will be shopping for a catcher, a first baseman, and starting pitching, naming Jason Varitek, Rod Barajas, Jeff Francis, and Chris Young as a few possible targets.
  • In a Twitter exchange, Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus discuss Bryan LaHair of the Cubs and former Pirates outfielder Lastings Milledge, two players being eyed by Japanese teams. Goldstein suggests the Cubs would like to hang on to LaHair, but hears rumblings that Milledge could sign in Japan as early as next week (all four Twitter links).

Red Sox Haven’t Made Offer To Papelbon

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As of today, players with expired contracts are eligible to file for free agency, but teams still have until Thursday at 12:01am ET to exclusively negotiate with their free agents. So far though, the Red Sox have yet to make a contract offer to closer Jonathan Papelbon, according to WEEI's Rob Bradford.

During his introductory press conference this week, Ben Cherington indicated there had been some dialogue with Papelbon and that he expects the two sides to continue to talk. However, the new Red Sox GM tells Bradford that he doesn't expect a contract to be signed before Thursday: "My impression is that Pap will probably get into free agency. I'm not ruling anything out, but that's my impression."

The Red Sox figure to offer Papelbon arbitration in November, so if the Type-A free agent does sign with another club, the Sox would snag two draft picks out of the deal. For a more in-depth look at Papelbon's free agent stock, check out MLBTR's Dan Mennella's piece from back in August.

Quick Hits: Pirates, CBA, Cubs, Royals

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Some late-night links on this Saturday night …

  • The Pirates are considering exercising shortstop Ronny Cedeno's $3MM 2012 option, but they will likely pass on options for Chris Snyder ($6.75MM), Ryan Doumit ($7.25MM) and Paul Maholm ($9.75MM), according to Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. As well, Langosch adds the Bucs have interest in re-signing first baseman Derrek Lee but will probably allow Ryan Ludwick to walk in free agency.
  • MLB and the players union are close on a new collective bargaining agreement, tweets Jon Heyman of SI.com, although slotting for draft signing bonuses remains an issue of debate. Commissioner Bud Selig and some small-market teams are in favor of hard slotting, according to Heyman.
  • Cubs president Theo Epstein said he wants to talk to starter Carlos Zambrano before deciding how to proceed in handling the right-hander, according to Carrie Muskat of MLB.com, whether that be retaining Zambrano or trying to trade him. As well, Epstein hinted at one of the organization's overarching goals: "We're looking for assets," Epstein said. "We're going to scratch and claw and do everything in our power — in the Draft, internationally, small trades, waiver claims. We need to build assets because we don't have enough of them.
  • Royals GM Dayton Moore told Dick Kaegel of MLB.com that he will "explore trade possibilities to add a starter." Moore said the Royals probably won't try to sign a free-agent starter, however.

NL East Notes: Rollins, Nats, Nathan, Marlins

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On this day three years ago, the Phillies sewed up a World Series title by finishing off the Rays in the resumption of a rain-suspended Game 5. Here's an item regarding that Philly team's shortstop, and a few others from around the NL East …

  • Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins tells CSNPhilly.com that he expects the Phils to make him an offer before he officially hits free agency (video link), though he's not sure what the terms of that offer might be.
  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo thinks his club can contend for the NL East title in 2012 with the addition of an outfield bat and a starting pitcher, according to Bill Ladson of MLB.com. Washington might also pursue Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder, opines Ladson, as the Nats have made "no promises" to Adam LaRoche.
  • Closer Joe Nathan, whose $12MM 2012 option was declined this week by the Twins, said the Mets will be on his radar during his foray into free agency, according to Greg Logan of Newsday. Nathan is a New York native and attended Stony Brook University on Long Island.
  • Marlins president David Samson said Florida plans to have a busy but prudent offseason and raise its payroll in 2012, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. "We're going to be very aggressive, but we're not going to be foolish. That's the key. When you raise your payroll, you've got to do it smartly, because if you don't, you are losing 90 games at a higher payroll." Frisaro speculates the Marlins' payroll will be roughly $85MM in 2012, which would be a $27MM increase from 2011's $58MM.

Yankees Exercise Cano’s, Swisher’s 2012 Options

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The Yankees have exercised their 2012 club options on second baseman Robinson Cano and outfielder Nick Swisher, the team announced. Cano's option is for $14MM and Swisher's is for $10.25MM.

Cano, who turned 29 a week ago, has established himself as an elite offensive second baseman, slugging no fewer than 25 homers in each of the past three seasons to go along with his .308/.347/.496 career line. Fangraphs' UZR metric has rated Cano slightly below-average defensively in recent seasons, but his $14MM 2012 salary will still be a bargain relative to his overall production, a fact that may (or may not) have inspired his agent, Scott Boras, to angle for a new contract recently.

Swisher, 31 next month, shrugged off a sluggish start this season to hit 23 homers and post a .260/.374/.449 line, in keeping with his .254/.360/.466 career figures. He didn't fare well during the Yankees' postseason run, leading some to wonder whether the Yankees would decline his option and perhaps pursue someone like Carlos Beltran, but that was quashed yesterday.

The Yankees hold another club option on Cano for 2013 at $15MM, while Swisher is entering the final year of a five-year deal he signed with the Athletics back in May 2007. 

West Notes: Matsui, Angels, Gibson, D’Backs

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Here are a handful of interesting notes from around baseball's West divisions:

  • The Athletics' interest in re-signing impending free agent DH Hideki Matsui is waning, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Oakland wants to get younger, according to Slusser, and Matsui, now 37, doesn't fit that bill. A return isn't entirely impossible, though, and A's GM Billy Beane will meet with Matsui's agent, Arn Tellem of Wasserman Media Group, next week.
  • Angels owner Arte Moreno said that the Halos' 2012 payroll will be in the $130-140MM range, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link), which would prevent them from pursuing any expensive free agents. In the Angels' installment of MLBTR's Offseason Outlook series, Ben Nicholson-Smith calculated that the Angels will have about $120MM on the books before accounting for players making the league minimum, so new GM Jerry Dipoto will have about $10-20MM to play with.
  • Diamondbacks manager Kirk Gibson's 2013 club option vested when the Snakes reached the playoffs this year, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The D'Backs almost certainly would have picked up the option anyway considering Gibson's success in his first full season as skipper, but Arizona's postseason berth assured it. Gibson's coaches have all been extended through 2013, as well.
  • D'Backs GM Kevin Towers will focus on position players this offseason rather than pitchers, according to Steve Gilbert of MLB.com, with second base being a key spot of interest. It's been expected that Aaron Hill's $8MM 2012 club option will be declined, though Arizona would like to re-sign him, according to Gilbert.
  • Towers doesn't expect to find a new vice president of scouting and player development, the position vacated by Dipoto, according to Piecoro. As well, Towers and Dipoto will hash out which executives the latter will be allowed to bring to Anaheim, with director of international scouting Carlos Gomez expected to be a person of interest in those talks. "That'd be a tough one," Towers said. "He's good. International guys are hard to find, especially young guys. He is under contract. I plan on offering him even a second year."

Indians To Decline Sizemore’s Option, Exercise Carmona’s

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The Indians are expected to decline their $9MM 2012 option on center fielder Grady Sizemore and exercise their $7MM 2012 option on right-hander Fausto Carmona, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Sizemore will be owed a $500K buyout.

Sizemore, 29, was a cornerstone player for the Tribe from 2005-08 (.281/.372/.496) but has seen his stock plummet after three consecutive injury-riddled campaigns. Bastian notes that the Indians will likely be interested in bringing back Sizemore on a lesser deal, and as Tim Dierkes wrote earlier today, the three-time All-Star should garner interest – perhaps in the form of an incentive-laden deal – from teams in need of help in center field.

Carmona, 28 in December, will apparently return for a seventh season in Cleveland. The groundballer (58.6% career rate) has seen pretty wild fluctuations in his yearly ERAs, although his FIPs usually sits in the mid-4.00s. He averaged 200 innings over the past two seasons, however, so the Indians are hoping that he can shoulder a similar workload again and pitch competently at what is a reasonable salary. The Indians also hold options on the right-hander for 2013 ($9MM) and 2014 ($12MM).

Last night we learned that all option decisions – regardless if it's team, player, or mutual – must be made by 11:59pm ET on Monday.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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Longtime GM Theo Epstein is gone and recently-appointed replacement Ben Cherington will try leading the Red Sox to their first playoff appearance since 2009 by improving the pitching staff and tinkering with the offense.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • Dan Wheeler, RP: $3MM club option with no buyout (Type B)
  • Marco Scutaro, SS: $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout (Type B)

Free Agents

To fully understand the challenges the Red Sox face this offseason, we must review the events of the past two months. Red Sox fans already know the unpleasant details, so I'll be brief: since the beginning of September, the Red Sox — a franchise no longer accustomed to losing — lost 20 games and their seemingly unshakable grip on a postseason berth. Days after the collapse, they lost their manager and within weeks their longtime general manager left, too. Now, they're about to see their designated hitter and closer hit free agency along with franchise icons Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek.

No, Cherington's first offseason in the GM's office won't be an easy one. But unlike his predecessor, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, Cherington doesn't face anything resembling a rebuilding process. Despite the chaos of the past eight weeks, Boston is well-positioned for success in 2012 and beyond.

It starts with the search for a new manager: someone who can restore order in a clubhouse that apparently featured more than its share of beer and fried chicken in 2011. Boston's search is in its early stages, with the team set to conduct first-round interviews soon.

The September version of the Red Sox played roughly at the level of the 1962 Mets or 2003 Tigers. A whole lot went wrong down the stretch, so it would be unfair to put all the blame on Boston's starting rotation. But make no mistake — Cherington must obtain starting pitching this winter. Pencil Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz in and you have three above-average starters leading the rotation, as long as Buchholz recovers from the lower back stress fracture that sidelined him at the end of 2011. John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka will be recovering from Tommy John surgery, which leaves two openings in Boston's rotation.

Reinforcements could come internally, where the Red Sox have Andrew Miller, Kyle Weiland and Felix Doubront. They could re-sign Wakefield, since the knuckleballer contributes every season and was his usual self in 2011, even as a 45-year-old. Cherington will be looking for more.

At his introductory press conference, the new GM suggested he'll search for buy-low starters. Perhaps this means the Red Sox will offer veteran starters one-year deals and hope for better results than John Smoltz and Brad Penny provided in 2009. Roy Oswalt could be an option, if the Red Sox believe his back is healthy. 

As usual, the Red Sox and Yankees engaged in a bit of gamesmanship at the other's expense last offseason. Boston expressed interest in Mariano Rivera and New York drove up the price for Carl Crawford. Boston should inquire on C.C. Sabathia if he hits the open market this offseason. Sabathia could help the Red Sox and interest from Boston would at least drive the price up for the Yankees, if they successfully re-sign him. While the Steinbrenners spend more than any owners in the game, there's no harm in making the Yankees pay more than they'd like to.

Cherington hasn't publicly ruled out the pursuit of other top free agent starters and until he does, the Red Sox will be linked to the likes of Yu Darvish, C.J. Wilson and Edwin Jackson. The team could also try luring Hiroki Kuroda to Boston, though he appears to favor Los Angeles. 

The Red Sox could inquire on any number of trade candidates, including Fausto Carmona, Jonathan Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco and White Sox starters Gavin Floyd and John Danks. Though Orioles right-hander Jeremy Guthrie and all the Rays' starters are likely off-limits, the Red Sox should check in on the best arms available on the trade market. Unfortunately for them, the Yankees will be doing exactly the same thing. Depending on how the Red Sox approach their offseason, Jed Lowrie, Ryan Lavarnway, Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick could all be viewed as expendable in trade talks.

Jonathan Papelbon has anchored Boston's bullpen since 2006 and he recorded the final out of Boston's 2007 World Series championship. However, it's no secret he wants to follow the money and the Red Sox have a ready-made replacement in Daniel Bard, who should be fine in 2012, despite his awful September. Boston will surely offer Papelbon arbitration, as he's a Type A free agent, but I'll be surprised if he reports to Fort Myers with the Red Sox next Spring Training.

Like the rotation, the bullpen requires some offseason work. Bard, Alfredo Aceves and Franklin Morales will return and the Red Sox can hope for more from Bobby Jenks in 2012. Dan Wheeler, a valuable yet replaceable reliever, projects as a Type B free agent, so the Red Sox could decline his option and offer arbitration. This would assure them of one of two acceptable results: a draft pick or one more year of Wheeler at an affordable rate. Cherington will likely pursue relief pitching even if Wheeler and non-tender candidates Miller and Matt Albers return.

Lost in the drama of the past two months has been Boston's impressive offensive output. The Red Sox scored more runs than any team in baseball in 2011 and with most of their core players returning, there's no reason to believe they won't have one of the league's best offenses again. The Red Sox are likely to exercise Marco Scutaro's option for $6MM. This would give Jose Iglesias more time to develop and relegate Lowrie to the bench. The rest of Boston's infield is set, with Adrian Gonzalez at first, Dustin Pedroia at second and Kevin Youkilis at third.

The outfield features the American League's most surprising player this side of Mike Napoli and its most disappointing player this side of Adam Dunn, in Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford, respectively. Likely joining the two as starters is Reddick, who hit .280/.327/.457 in roughly half a season of playing time. The Red Sox may explore an extension for Ellsbury, not that negotiating with a Scott Boras client coming off of an MVP-caliber season would be easy.

After yet another productive season, David Ortiz is the top designated hitter available on the free agent market. He posted a .309/.398/.554 line, and even though he turns 36 this November, he seems well-positioned for a generous contract. Will the Red Sox finally provide him with the long-term deal he's been seeking for years? Maybe. They'll probably start by offering arbitration, an advisable move given Ortiz's power. But there's no sense in overcommitting to a positionless player who may be approaching his decline phase, so expect the Red Sox to be prepared to walk away. Other free agent DHs are available and Lavarnway is an internal candidate for the job, so Boston isn't bound to Ortiz. 

When he introduced Boston's new general manager, Red Sox president and CEO Larry Lucchino pointed out that Cherington will not have the luxury of a peaceful start. “He will hit the ground running, in full stride, and no one will outwork him,” Lucchino said. The way the 2011 season ended, there's no other choice.

Rockies, Giambi Exercise Mutual Option For 2012

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As expected, the Rockies and backup first baseman Jason Giambi have exercised their sides of a $1MM mutual option for 2012, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post (via Twitter).

Giambi, 41 in January, has spent two-plus seasons in Colorado as a pinch-hitter and Todd Helton's backup. The former Athletic and Yankee slugged 13 homers and drew 35 walks in only 152 plate appearances in 2011, so he still has some pop and a good eye at the plate.

The Giambino, a former second-round pick (1992), will return for an 18th Major League season. He boasts an impressive .281/.404/.525 for his career.

Free Agent And Trade Market For Center Fielders

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The Athletics, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, and Giants are the key teams likely to seek center field help this offseason, and they'll be best served by the trade market.

Starting Center Fielders Available In Free Agency

Coco Crisp is likely to sign a multiyear deal, as he's the one viable everyday center fielder on the free agent market.  This was his healthiest year since '07, but if his on-base percentage doesn't bounce back he's not an asset at the top of a batting order.  

MLB.com's Jordan Bastian tweets that the Indians are expected to choose a $500K buyout over Grady Sizemore's $9MM club option Monday.  That implies that Sizemore has little trade value on a one-year, $8.5MM deal.  If nothing else, Sizemore showed some pop in 71 games this year, but his health is a huge concern.  Since 2009 Sizemore has missed time due to injuries to his elbow, abdominal wall, and left knee, the last of which required microfracture surgery in June of 2010.  He had surgery for a sports hernia this year, and a right knee injury culminated in an October arthroscopy.  He's expected to be ready for Spring Training, and a one-year, incentive-laden deal with a base salary around $5MM makes for an intriguing gamble.

Thinking Outside The Box

With so few everyday center fielders available in free agency most years, teams with openings will have to be creative.  One option would be to try Endy Chavez as a center field regular; he hasn't filled that role since 2003-04 with the Expos.  His career was sidelined by a torn ACL operated on over two years ago, but his half-season with the Rangers this year was promising.

Agent Scott Boras said in March that Carlos Beltran could play center field effectively, but teams looking to invest in the 34-year-old probably won't count on that.  David DeJesus hasn't played 500 innings in center since '08, but Cody Ross tallied over 700 just last year.

Quality Backups

Assuming he doesn't retire, Mike Cameron's batting line with Florida suggests teams will have interest.  Rick Ankiel and Nate McLouth are also candidates to get Major League deals to serve as part-time players.

Non-Tender Candidates

The list of center field non-tender candidates is strong.  The Mets' Angel Pagan may be deemed unworthy of a $4.7MM arbitration salary, but there's an argument he was worth almost five times that amount in 2010.  The Giants' Andres Torres is an even more extreme example; he projects at $2.5MM through arbitration and was arguably worth over ten times that amount last year.  If teams have faith in the 2010 seasons of Pagan and Torres, they'll be popular trade targets prior to December 12th.  There's also a chance the Dodgers' Tony Gwynn Jr. is cut loose, though he projects to make only $1.1MM through arbitration.

Other Trade Candidates

Extending Matt Kemp is a top priority for Dodgers GM Ned Colletti, and Kemp doesn't want to talk contract during the season.  With Kemp entering his walk year, trade rumors will pick up if the extension talks fail.  Interest would be immense around the game for the MVP candidate.

Melky Cabrera projects at $4.4MM next year, and a multiyear deal with the Royals looks unlikely.  He's a trade candidate this winter coming off a fine offensive season.  The Rays' B.J. Upton is a fit for the more defensively-minded club, and he projects at $7.6MM in his last year before free agency.  Marlon Byrd, set to earn $6.5MM this year, may be expendable for the Cubs.  Denard Span, signed potentially through 2015, was often linked to the Nationals during the summer.  Hopefully the dizziness and vertigo he suffered this year are behind him.  Mitch Maier, Carlos Gomez, Chris Coghlan, Rajai Davis, and Alex Rios are other names to watch on the center field trade market.

Check out the full free agent list, as well as our articles on the markets at catcher, first base, second base, third base and shortstop.

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