Reds Shopping Yonder Alonso For Pitching
The Reds are offering Yonder Alonso as trade bait in their search for a closer or a No. 2 starter, reports Yahoo Sports' Tim Brown. Reds GM Walt Jocketty has spoken to several teams — including the A's, Blue Jays, Indians and Rays — about Alonso, though we heard earlier this week that the Reds thought Alonso was too much to give up for Oakland closer Andrew Bailey.
Alonso is regarded as Cincinnati's top hitting prospect, if one without a Major League position since Joey Votto is cemented at first base. The 24-year-old has an OPS of .837 in four minor league seasons and hit .330/.398/.545 in 98 plate appearances with the Reds last year.
If the Reds were willing to move him, you would think Alonso would be too much to deal for any closer, not just Bailey. Jocketty has said his club's top priority is finding a starting pitcher this offseason, so while the Jays and Indians have some good young arms, they wouldn't be willing to deal a top-of-the-rotation caliber of starter for which the Reds are looking. The Jays and Tribe also have other options at first base, though Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion and Matt LaPorta wouldn't be major obstacles if Toronto or Cleveland had a legitimate shot at Alonso. The A's and Reds might not be a match on Bailey, but Jocketty might deem possibly-available pitchers like Gio Gonzalez or Trevor Cahill worthy of moving Alonso.
The most logical match would appear to be Tampa Bay, who has a big hole at first base, lots of pitching and a need for a controllable young talent like Alonso. The Rays could offer Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann, though the Reds are more likely looking for a pitcher like James Shields. (Obviously David Price and Jeremy Hellickson are staying put.)
Free Agent Stock Watch: Francisco Cordero
Francisco Cordero was already drawing interest from several teams this offseason, but the free agent closer became even more attractive on the open market when his Type A status was modified into a Type B by the new collective bargaining agreement. Now the team that signs Cordero doesn't have to give up a first-round draft pick as compensation, which is good news for the several teams with unprotected first-rounders that have targeted the 36-year-old.
Cordero has been one of the more effective and durable closers in the game, averaging 71 innings, an even 3.00 ERA and a 9.2 K/9 rate over the last nine seasons. Though he turns 37 next year, Cordero seems to be throwing as well as ever at first glance — he posted a 2.45 ERA for the Reds in 2011, allowed a career-low 6.3 H/9, and approached career bests with a 2.8 BB/9 rate and a 1.019 WHIP.
A look at the advanced metrics, however, reveals some major red flags. Cordero also achieved his lowest K/9 rate in any full season, striking out just 5.4 batters per nine innings. His xFIP of 4.14 and his BABIP of .214 indicate that Cordero had some luck on his side last year, and the fact that his ground ball rate rose to a career-high 50% is another curious indicator. Generating grounders at the Great American Ballpark is a nice strategy, but it is more likely a sign that Cordero is starting to lose his strikeout prowess.
The Reds declined Cordero's $12MM option for 2012 but there was mutual interest in both parties in a new multiyear contract. Cordero told Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio that while the Reds were still in the "hunt," he would go elsewhere unless Cincinnati upped its offer.
Joe Nathan's two-year, $14.75MM deal with the Rangers would seem to be the baseline for a new Cordero contract. Both Cordero and Nathan will be pitching in their age-37 season in 2012, and while Nathan enjoyed more elite years than Cordero has, Nathan underwent Tommy John surgery in 2010 and only showed flashes of his old self in his return to the mound last yera. Cordero and his representatives at Proformance can credibly argue that Cordero is worth more given his track record of durability.
Of the nine contenders who have been linked to the right-hander, we can eliminate Texas since they've already got Nathan. Spending big on a closer seems like an unlikely move for the Mets, Blue Jays and Rays, the latter of whom already has Kyle Farnsworth under contract for 2012. Both L.A. teams could be interested in having a veteran presence at the end of games, but given how impressive Jordan Walden and Javy Guerra looked for the Angels and Dodgers last year, bringing Cordero into the fold would seem unnecessary.
This leaves the Red Sox, Marlins and Reds. Boston has a need at closer with Jonathan Papelbon gone to Philadelphia, but the Red Sox won't want to risk another expensive disaster on the free agent market if Cordero is really on a downward arc in his career and doesn't get any BABIP luck at Fenway. Miami already seem to have moved past Juan Carlos Oviedo and has been seemingly connected to every free agent this winter; signing an established veteran like Cordero would be one of those headline signings that the Marlins seem intent on making to prove that they're serious about contending in 2012.
As for Cincinnati, the amount of interest in Cordero would seem to preclude a hometown discount, but he could return if the Reds boost their offer at least into the ballpark of what Cordero's other offers. In Tim Dierkes' Offseason Outlook piece on the Reds, however, Tim warned that paying Cordero $5MM or more per year is "a market inefficiency the Reds should avoid." Nathan's deal might have priced the Reds out of Cordero's range if the team has similar reservations about its former stopper.
Another team to throw into the mix are the Twins, who are looking for a veteran closer. They haven't been connected to Cordero yet but the two sides would seem to be a decent match.
A three-year deal for Cordero would be ill-advised, but his decision might come down to which team offers him the most incentive-filled two-year pact or possibly even a vesting option for a third year. I'd expect Cordero to get a two-year deal worth around $16MM, with some type of club option for 2014 that could be tied to innings or appearances. I'd guess he ends up pitching in Miami or Minnesota next season, with a return to Cincinnati lurking as the upset possibility.
Phillies Interested In Jorge Soler
Add the Phillies to the list of clubs interested in 19-year-old Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler. Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that Phils scouting director Marti Wolever "was extremely impressed" by Soler during a recent workout in the Dominican Republic. Yoenis Cespedes also took part in that workout and while Philadelphia is known to be looking at the high-profile Cespedes as well, Soler would come at a much cheaper price than what Cespedes will command.
Soler, of course, is cheaper because he's still just 19 and at least a few years away from being a Major League player. In addition to the Phillies, the Yankees, Nationals, Cubs, Marlins and Rangers have also shown interest in Soler.
As Brookover notes, "the Phillies have almost never been a team that gets in bidding wars for international players," though this winter's activity will be limited by the $2.9MM cap on international bonuses under the new collective bargaining agreement. Given the impressive scouting reports on Soler (including how he "might have more offensive upside" than Cespedes, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan), one would think a team would've spent more than $2.9MM on Soler alone were it not for the new cap.
Poll: Who Will Be The Next Red Sox Manager?
Had the Red Sox offered Dale Sveum a managerial post before the Cubs did, one wonders if Sveum would've returned to Fenway Park rather than taking the Chicago job. Though Boston's list of candidates seems to be gradually decreasing, the recent inclusion of Bobby Valentine into the mix has created questions about if Valentine really is "the sudden favorite" or if it means the Red Sox are still expanding their search. Valentine's emergence and the fact that the Sox were trying to get permission from the Blue Jays to make an offer to John Farrell would seem to hint that they're not satisfied with the current short list.
Indians bench coach Sandy Alomar Jr. and Phillies third base coach Pete Mackanin have been dropped from consideration. As it stands now, Boston is looking at Valentine, Tigers third base coach Gene Lamont (who will be interviewing for the second time within the next few days) and Jays first base coach (and former Red Sox Triple-A manager) Torey Lovullo. Will one of this trio be Terry Francona's successor, or will someone else emerge to take the job?
Who Will Be The Next Red Sox Manager?
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Bobby Valentine 71% (10,397)
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Gene Lamont 12% (1,769)
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Other 10% (1,472)
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Torey Lovullo 6% (906)
Total votes: 14,544
AL East Notes: Gio, Jones, Buchholz, Garcia
Here's the latest from the AL East…
- "Gio Gonzalez has been a name widely discussed internally" by the Red Sox, reports Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston. The Sox are "extremely high" on the Athletics left-hander. We've also heard the Yankees and Marlins are interested in Gonzalez, though the A's haven't yet begun seriously discussing possible trades.
- The Orioles don't have to pursue an extension with Adam Jones this winter, opines MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli. She believes if Baltimore's young pitchers don't show signs of improvement next season, the O's will have to enter yet another rebuilding process, and only then will the team decide if Jones is a long-term answer. If the Orioles rebuild, Jones would command a heavy price on the trade market. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes looked at Jones as an extension candidate in August.
- We recently heard from FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal that the Red Sox asked the Blue Jays about Toronto manager (and former Sox pitching coach) John Farrell. According to David Waldstein of the New York Times (Twitter link), the Jays asked for Clay Buchholz in return. As Rosenthal wrote, "the Sox never considered it likely that the Jays would engage in serious discussions about Farrell, and the conversations failed to progress," which isn't at all surprising if Buchholz was the asking price.
- Freddy Garcia could have found a two-year deal elsewhere but wanted to return to the Yankees, tweets Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. The Red Sox were the only other team known to have an interest in Garcia, who agreed to terms today on a one-year, $5MM deal with New York.
Padres Notes: Quentin, Bell, Baker, Scouting
The Padres have Carlos Quentin "on their list of possibilities" for an offseason trade, reports Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune. It seems like a good match, given that the White Sox are thought to have Quentin on the market and the Padres are looking for a corner outfielder. Center mentions elsewhere in his chat with readers that given the Padres' difficulty in luring free agent hitters to Petco Park, a trade would be the club's best chance to add that desired corner outfield help.
Quentin has posted a .257/.352/.505 line over the last four seasons in Chicago, though it remains to be seen how his bat and his glove (a career UZR/150 of -9.3, though this metric also shows Quentin was an above-average defensive right fielder in 2011) would play in spacious Petco Park. If Quentin was acquired, he and Cameron Maybin would play every day, with Center including Chris Denorfia, Jesus Guzman, Kyle Blanks, Mark Kotsay and Will Venable all in the mix at the other corner outfield spot.
Some other news about the Friars…
- Also from Center, GM Josh Byrnes is "actively talking trade with a number of clubs." Center lists Maybin, Nick Hundley, Mat Latos and Anthony Rizzo as "the only players who I believe are close to untouchable."
- Former Padres GM Jed Hoyer tells Tom Krasovic of Inside The Padres that the new collective bargaining agreement played a big role in the club's decision to keep Heath Bell at last summer's trade deadline. "We checked with MLB several times to make sure the compensation system wouldn't be eliminated after the 2011 season," Hoyer said. "The value of the picks was the crux of our decision not to trade him in July or August. In our minds (and many people were involved in the decision), we never were offered anything all that close to the value of the draft picks in return." If Bell turns down San Diego's offer of arbitration and signs elsewhere, Bell's modified Type A status means that the Padres would receive a first-round pick in a slot directly ahead of Bell's new team, plus a supplementary round pick.
- Writing for Fangraphs, Mike Axisa thinks the Padres got the better end of the recent John Baker-for-Wade LeBlanc trade.
- The Padres' willingness to spend on their international scouting and development system is paying dividends, writes Dan Hayes of the North County Times.
Revisiting The MLBTR Writing Staff’s Preseason Picks
This Thanksgiving, it's time to eat some humble pie. Last March, nine members of the MLB Trade Rumors writing staff unveiled our predictions for the 2011 season. Now that the playoffs are over and the postseason hardware has been awarded, let's see how these picks look eight months later.
The results prove two things. First, no matter how much you follow or know about baseball, it's easy to be wrong when dealing with the most unpredictable and surprising of sports. Second, if you ever need some numbers for a lottery ticket, don't consult an MLBTR writer.
- AL East: Only Zach Links had the Yankees winning the division title, as the rest of us bought into the preseason Red Sox hype.
- AL Central: Another color of Sox let us down in the Central, as seven writers picked Chicago to win the division. The exceptions were Mike Axisa and Steve Adams, who shrewdly knew the White Sox were in for a rough season and instead picked….the Twins. Oops. Hard to believe none of us thought the Tigers would break through.
- AL West: Things went a bit better out west as Zach, Tim Dierkes, Ben Nicholson-Smith and Howard Megdal all correctly had the Rangers repeating as division champs. The other five of us apparently thought this would be the year of Moneyball karma and picked the A's for first place.
- AL Wild Card: Kudos to Howard for being the only one to think the Rays would rebound from their free agent losses last winter and return to the postseason as the AL Wild Card. The Yankees got five picks as the Wild Card, and the Rangers got two more, so at least those of us who missed on these two as division winners got a makeup slot.
- NL East: The Phillies' dream pitching staff was enough to convince six of us to pick them as division champs, and the decision paid off. Tim, Ben and Howard had the Braves winning the East.
- NL Central: Another overall successful set of picks in the Central, with six writers correctly predicting the Brewers' rise. Ben, Mike and myself all missed out and picked the Reds.
- NL West: Unsurprisingly, nobody saw the Diamondbacks pulling off the worst-to-first feat. This was the only division with three different teams predicted as winners — five votes for the Rockies, three for the Giants and one for the Dodgers.
- NL Wild Card: Tim, Howard and Ben didn't have the Phillies winning the East but they did have them winning the Wild Card. The Braves (4) and Giants (2) got the remaining Wild Card picks.
- NL MVP: Somewhat surprisingly, Ryan Braun didn't pick up any MVP love from the MLBTR staff. Five of us played it safe with Albert Pujols, Troy Tulowitzki got two selections, and Howard and Steve came closest by picking Braun's teammate Prince Fielder.
- AL MVP: No Justin Verlander votes could be found in this all-AL East array of picks. Adrian Gonzalez received four votes and Evan Longoria received two, so six of us were at least on the right track. As for Dan, Steve and I, we all picked Carl Crawford, who didn't appear on a single MVP ballot after a rough debut in Boston.
- NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw was the choice for Zach and Howard, as the rest of us predicted another Cy for either Roy Halladay (six votes) or Tim Lincecum (one vote).
- AL Cy Young: Verlander's victory was correctly predicted by Luke, Dan and Ben, but he still wasn't the top choice of the MLBTR team. Jon Lester received four picks as the AL Cy Young winner, while David Price also scored two picks.
- NL Rookie Of The Year: Five different rookies were picked amongst our nine writers, but none of them were Craig Kimbrel. Brandon Belt and Freddie Freeman each received three picks. This catgory is also home to perhaps the single most off-base pick of the whole set, as Howard had Brad Emaus as the NL's Rookie of the Year.
- AL Rookie Of The Year: Then again, I picked Kyle Drabek as the AL's ROY, so what do I know? This was an overall strong category with five correct predictions for Jeremy Hellickson. Mike Moustakas, Michael Pineda, Chris Sale and (sigh) Drabek all received single votes.
Given that our picks were made just over a month after Adam Wainwright's Tommy John surgery, it's probably no surprise that none of us picked the Cardinals to even make the playoffs, let alone go all the way to their 11th World Series championship. None of us had any luck with World Series picks, as each writer picked at least one pennant winner (or, in some cases, a Series winner) who missed the postseason entirely. The Red Sox were the biggest culprits in this department, given that six of us had Boston winning the American League and four of us had the Sox winning it all.
Amusing mistakes from the World Series section: Dan had the White Sox as world champions, I had the A's taking the AL pennant and both Ben and Luke had the "all-collapse" World Series tandem of the Braves against the Red Sox.
Zach, Tim and Howard each correctly picked four of the eight playoff teams, and Zach, Ben and Luke each had two correct award winners. This means the overall staff winner is Zach Links, with six of a possible 17 overall categories. The lowest score of the bunch (with two out of 17) belonged to…..me. So, not only did I make bad decisions with my preseason picks, I also made the bad decision to publicly shame myself by writing this post. My only consolation is that I was 100% accurate with all my predictions when the MLBTR staff made our preseason picks for the 2011 Nippon Professional Baseball season. Go Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks!
List Of Free Agents Who Will Cost Draft Picks
In case the fine distinction between Type A and Type B free agents wasn't confusing enough, MLB has added a new level of complexity to this offseason's class of ranked free agents. This year's Type A free agents have been divided into three groups and teams will only have to surrender draft choices for signing players from one of the the sub-groups. You can read about the details here and follow the arbitration offers with MLBTR's tracker, but if you're only concerned with the bottom line, look no further. Here are the six remaining players for whom teams will have to surrender a top draft pick this offseason:
Also note that the Phillies will surrender a draft pick for signing Jonathan Papelbon earlier in the offseason. No other free agents, even those who obtained offers of arbitration, will cost draft picks. This means fewer obstacles exist for teams wary of losing draft choices and more opportunities exist for ranked free agents looking to sign their next contracts. Middle relievers and second-tier position players are no doubt pleased that the MLBPA bargained for these changes.
Poll: Which Team Will Sign C.J. Wilson?
At the beginning of the offseason, C.J. Wilson said there was a "great chance" that he would re-sign in Texas. Much has changed in the ensuing weeks. Wilson has drawn interest from a third of MLB teams and the Rangers have decided to shift Neftali Feliz to the rotation. Texas' need for starting pitching has diminished since the offseason began, so the Rangers may balk at Wilson's reported asking price of $120MM.
But some team will happily sign Wilson, even if the Rangers don't. Who will it be…
Which team will sign C.J. Wilson?
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Angels 24% (4,960)
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Yankees 23% (4,779)
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Nationals 11% (2,143)
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Red Sox 10% (2,023)
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Rangers 10% (1,993)
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Blue Jays 6% (1,147)
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Marlins 5% (1,038)
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Phillies 5% (961)
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Other 4% (913)
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Royals 2% (400)
Total votes: 20,357
Quick Hits: Red Sox, Cespedes, Pujols
Six years ago today, the Red Sox traded Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez to the Marlins for two players who would help them secure a second World Series title in four seasons: Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. I looked back at the trade in detail two years ago, declaring it a win-win. Here are today’s links, starting with an update on the Red Sox…
- Alex Speier of WEEI.com provides a year-by-year comparison of the free agents that left the Red Sox and the resulting compensatory draft picks obtained by the Theo Epstein regime.
- Free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes is scheduled to work out with the Tigers, according to John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press.
- Free agent first baseman Albert Pujols says he’s sticking with agent Dan Lozano, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The agent has fired back against an article on Deadspin that portrays him in an unforgiving manner.