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Nico Hoerner Discusses Surgery Rehab

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The Cubs have attempted to retool their roster this winter in an effort to get back to the playoffs for the first time in a 162-game season since 2018. As they’ve done so, one of the biggest question marks facing the team this winter has been the status of second baseman Nico Hoerner. The Cubs revealed in late October that Hoerner had undergone flexor tendon surgery without providing a timeline for his return. The injury ultimately didn’t stop teams such as the Mariners from pursuing Hoerner on the trade market this winter as the Cubs tried to open up a spot on the infield for top prospect Matt Shaw, but rumors of a deal died down after Chicago shipped third baseman Isaac Paredes to Houston as part of the Kyle Tucker trade.

With those trade rumors seemingly a thing of the past, Hoerner figures to be in the Cubs organization on Opening Day 2025. Whether or not he’ll be in the lineup is another matter, however. As noted by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, Hoerner discussed his injury and rehab in detail at the Cubs Convention in Chicago earlier today. Per Montemurro, Hoerner noted that he played through the issue throughout the 2024 campaign and that it had the largest impact on his throwing in the field.

That reality is borne out in his defensive metrics last year. According to Statcast, the fielding that earned Hoerner a Gold Glove award in 2023 faltered somewhat last year. While his +10 Outs Above Average remained in this 95th percentile of all MLB fielders last year, Hoerner’s Fielding Run Value dipped from +11 in 2023 to +8 in 2024. Looking specifically at his arm strength, Hoerner saw his throws lose more than three ticks of velocity year-over-year as he averaged 79.1 mph on his throws in 2023 but just 75.7 mph in 2024.

Given how noticeably the injury was impacting Hoerner’s elite work on the infield, it’s not necessarily surprising that he and the Cubs are taking his rehab process slowly. As relayed by Montemurro, Hoerner has not yet begun a throwing program or hitting since he went under the knife back in October. With the Cubs’ first game of the 2025 season against the Dodgers in Tokyo just two months away, that casts some doubt on the second baseman’s ability to be ready for the start of Chicago’s season. To that end, Montemurro reports that Hoerner not only could not answer whether or not he’d be ready for the Tokyo Series in March, but also couldn’t comment on whether or not he’d be back on the field in time for the Cubs’ home opener on April 4.

That leaves Hoerner missing at least the season’s first couple of weeks on the table, and without a clear timeline for return the possibility of a somewhat longer absence cannot be fully ruled out. With Shaw seemingly set to take over for Paredes at third base, the club’s internal options to fill in for Hoerner currently appear to be Rule 5 draft pick Gage Workman and utility infielder Vidal Brujan. Those options don’t exactly inspire confidence as fill-ins for Hoerner in the event he’s not ready for the start of the season, so it’s not necessarily a surprise that the Cubs appear to be focused on bolstering their bench mix ahead of Spring Training. Chicago was connected to Yoán Moncada earlier this month, and other players such as Paul DeJong and Jose Iglesias could also make sense as depth options who could fill in for Hoerner to start the season and provide insurance in case Shaw struggles in his first taste of big league action.

Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts Discusses Offseason, Payroll, Front Office

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The Cubs’ blockbuster trade for Kyle Tucker generated the biggest headlines in Wrigleyville this winter, with the team also adding such notables as Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Eli Morgan, Carson Kelly, and Caleb Thielbar to the roster.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer stated this week that the Cubs were still looking to add to the bench and bullpen, and recent reports suggest that the latter pursuit could even take the form of a big-ticket signing of Tanner Scott.

One of the over-arching questions about Chicago’s winter plans is exactly how much Hoyer had available to spend, and chairman Tom Ricketts addressed this point in an interview with The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney.  Ricketts said that the team expects to spend around the $241MM luxury tax threshold, which therefore gives the Cubs quite a bit of extra capacity, as RosterResource estimates its current tax number at roughly $198.3MM.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that the Cubs will be splashing around a lot of that cash in the coming weeks, however, as Ricketts said some money could be earmarked for upgrades at the trade deadline.  “We always have the ability to add payroll if we need to at the deadline.  And if there’s a piece we need to keep winning, there’s always that option,” Ricketts said.

The same wait-and-see mentality also impacts the remainder of the winter, as Ricketts noted that teams “don’t control the timing of when these guys sign.  And every offseason is different.  Nothing will happen for three weeks, and then one guy will sign.  And then three other guys want to sign in the next two days.  You just have to be flexible through the process, and keep an eye open at the end with some dry powder, in case there is someone that might be value-added that comes at a good price.”

A more expensive signing like Scott would take up a sizeable, yet not overwhelming, portion of Chicago’s budget space.  Rumors have persisted that the Cubs remain at least on the periphery of the Alex Bregman and Jack Flaherty markets, so despite Hoyer’s comments about the team’s focus on more lower-tier moves, Chicago can’t be entirely ruled out as a landing spot for either player until they sign elsewhere.  Bregman is reportedly not interested in a shorter-term deal with opt-outs while Flaherty is at least open to such an arrangement, so Flaherty could be a better fit as the type of “value-added” opportunity Ricketts describes (though any number of teams might also be interested in Flaherty in that same context).

The Cubs have taken a step back in their approach to payroll in recent years, as 2024 marked the first time since 2020 that Chicago’s Opening Day payroll landed within the league’s top ten spenders.  While the Cubs boosted payroll last year and into this offseason, some budget restraints are still clearly in place.  Most notably, the trade that sent Cody Bellinger to the Yankees was about unloading the majority of Bellinger’s remaining salary, in addition to clearing room for Tucker in Chicago’s outfield.

Fans have criticized Ricketts for this relative lack of spending from a big-market team, with some fingers pointed at the private investment firm Arctos for having an influence in this department.  Ricketts pushed back against this criticism in particular, noting that because Arctos has investments in multiple MLB teams, “they’re not allowed to participate in any baseball discussions, so they’re walled off from anything to do with payroll or player analysis….Ultimately, the private equity investors have very long-term horizons and are just looking to participate in the appreciation of sports assets in general.  They don’t need certain win totals or cash-flow numbers.  They’re just strong, silent partners.”

As always, the Competitive Balance Tax is calculated via average annual value plus additional player benefits, as opposed to just straight dollars — this is why the Cubs’ $227.7MM payroll in 2024 translated to a $239.9MM tax number, which put Chicago slightly over the $237MM tax threshold.  This means that the Cubs would have to give up two draft picks in order to sign a qualified free agent like Bregman, which is why non-qualified free agents like Scott or Flaherty could be preferable.

Not coincidentally, the Cubbies’ scaled-back spending through a semi-rebuild coincided with a dearth of postseason baseball.  After reaching the postseason in 2020, the Cubs had sub-.500 seasons in both 2021 and 2022 before posting identical 83-79 records in each of the last two seasons.  There has been plenty of frustration among Cubs fans over the last two years’ worth of near-misses, and it has led to speculation that Hoyer is facing extra pressure as he enters the last year of his contract as the team’s PBO.

Ricketts downplayed the idea of 2025 as a particularly important season, noting that “every year, the goal is the playoffs.”  While Ricketts didn’t give Hoyer an outright vote of confidence in terms of promised job security, the chairman did praise Hoyer’s big-picture approach to roster-building.

“You evaluate the front office on a couple levels.  Obviously, No. 1, is just the wins on the field,” Ricketts said.  “That’s the most obvious metric to check.  But it’s just overall organizational health.  One thing that’s been very encouraging over the past few years is that we have drafted better. And the guys that we have drafted have developed more quickly than some years past.  We put ourselves really behind the eight-ball a few years ago with a series of drafts that weren’t very productive.  And I think we’re on the other side of that now.  We’ve got a lot of players coming through, which will give Jed a lot of trade capital to go into the future.”

Evaluators and pundits have increasingly praised the state of the Cubs’ farm system, and this depth already manifested itself in the Tucker trade.  Isaac Paredes was included in the three-player trade package to the Astros because the Cubs have confidence that Matt Shaw is ready for regular third-base work, plus top prospect Cam Smith was also sent to Houston in the deal.

“Maybe in a few years, people will say we should have traded somebody else,” Ricketts said.  “But that’s what it is – there’s a balance to every trade.  In this case, I think Jed was right in assessing that we needed an impact bat this season.”

Ricketts also added that “hopefully, [Tucker will] enjoy his time here and he’ll be here a long time.”  Tucker is a free agent after the season, and while Ricketts naturally isn’t going to outright say that the Cubs view him as a just a one-year rental, his comment at least leaves open the possibility that the Cubs are willing to give Tucker the mega-deal that he’ll undoubtedly command if he keeps up his current form.  Jason Heyward’s $184MM contract remains the most expensive deal in Cubs history, and the club is very likely going to have to at least double that price to re-sign Tucker.

Tanner Scott Weighing Multiple Offers, Could Sign This Weekend

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The market may be heating up for free agency’s top reliever. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reports that Tanner Scott is weighing multiple multi-year offers and may choose his team by this weekend.

Morosi suggests that the Cubs are among Scott’s top suitors. Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said this week that the bullpen is “probably the area we’ve been focused on most in free agency.” There’d be no bigger upgrade than Scott, though that’d be an out-of-character move for Hoyer’s front office. The Cubs have not signed a free agent reliever to a multi-year deal or a guarantee above $9MM in more than five years.

Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic writes that while the Cubs do indeed like Scott, they may be reluctant to meet the asking price. Previous reporting has suggested that Scott’s annual salary could approach $20MM on what’d presumably be a three- or four-year contract. Even if the money doesn’t quite get to that level, this would be a major investment. Scott should easily land the top reliever deal of the winter.

The Dodgers have been tied to Scott for months. After landing Roki Sasaki, a back-end reliever is the last box on L.A.’s offseason checklist. The Braves have also shown interest, while the Mets were more recently reported as a suitor. That no longer seems to be the case. New York agreed to terms with A.J. Minter on a two-year, $22MM guarantee this afternoon. Mike Puma of The New York Post reports that the Minter deal means the Mets are expected to drop their run at Scott.

Scott has been one of the best relievers in baseball for two seasons. He fired 78 innings of 2.31 ERA ball for the Marlins in 2023. The 30-year-old southpaw was even better last year. Scott earned his first All-Star nod and combined for a sterling 1.75 earned run average through 72 frames between Miami and the Padres. He averages nearly 97 MPH on his fastball and has punched out at least 28% of opposing hitters in three straight seasons.

Cubs Pursuing Bullpen, Bench Acquisitions

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Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently appeared with David Kaplan and Gordon Wittenmyer on the Cubs REKAP Podcast. Asked about the team’s goals over the remainder of the offseason, the baseball ops leader pointed to two specific areas.

“Mostly focused right now on bench and bullpen, just trying to supplement the roster as much as we can. I feel good about our team but there’s obviously ways to improve,” Hoyer said. He later added that the “bullpen’s been probably the area we’ve been focused on most in free agency. I feel like we’re trying to make sure we upgrade our bench. Adding a veteran presence to our bench would be good.”

The Cubs have made a pair of low-cost bullpen pickups this winter. Chicago acquired righty Eli Morgan from the Guardians and added left-hander Caleb Thielbar on a $2.75MM free agent contract. Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller and Nate Pearson have all earned spots in the relief corps. Julian Merryweather and Keegan Thompson are out of options, so they’ll need to be on the MLB roster or be offered to other teams via trade or waivers. That’s also true of Matt Festa and Rob Zastryzny, though they’ve been recent depth acquisitions who could have an uphill path to cracking the roster. Swingman Colin Rea could open the season in long relief.

Chicago probably wouldn’t benefit from another middle innings arm. The priority should be finding an established late-game veteran. Hoyer famously has shied away from significant investments in the bullpen since the Cubs’ three-year deal with Craig Kimbrel. Chicago hasn’t signed a reliever to a multi-year contract or an eight-figure guarantee since that June 2019 acquisition.

That’d make it a big surprise if the Cubs jump in on Tanner Scott, who could land three or four years at something between $15MM and $20MM annually. Chicago could also be reluctant to meet the ask on Carlos Estévez, but this offseason presents a few opportunities for clubs to add a veteran closer on a short-term contract.

Kirby Yates, David Robertson and Kenley Jansen are all coming off productive seasons. Yates, who turned in a 1.17 earned run average while striking out 36% of opponents over 61 1/3 innings for the Rangers, was arguably a top three reliever in the league. Each of those players will be limited to one- or two-year deals. Robertson, who pitched well for the Cubs early in 2022, will almost certainly be limited to one year as he enters his age-40 season.

On the position player side, there’s a clear need for a depth infielder. Vidal Bruján, Rule 5 pick Gage Workman, and Luis Vazquez are the top options to back up the expected starting infield of Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson and prospect Matt Shaw. A multi-positional player who can provide some cover at third base in case Shaw struggles makes sense. Yoán Moncada, Jon Berti, Enrique Hernández and Paul DeJong are potential options.

The Cubs already signed Carson Kelly to back up Miguel Amaya behind the dish. They have Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki lined up for outfield/designated hitter work. Alexander Canario is out of options, so he probably has a leg up on the fourth outfield role. Canario doesn’t play center field, though, so the Cubs could look for a glove-first veteran (potentially on a minor league deal) to back up Crow-Armstrong. Highly-regarded prospect Kevin Alcántara can play up the middle, but Hoyer indicated he preferred for the organization’s top young talents to play everyday in the majors or in Triple-A.

As far as a potential bigger addition goes, Hoyer was asked about the recent report from Bruce Levine of 670 The Score that the Cubs had “casual” dialogue with Alex Bregman regarding a short-term deal. Hoyer declined to comment on that report itself — team personnel are prohibited from publicly commenting on whether they’re pursuing specific free agents — but reiterated generally that the front office was “looking to supplement the roster” (implying they were less likely to make a huge splash). Bregman’s agent Scott Boras said this morning that the All-Star third baseman was still focused on landing a long-term contract anyhow.

Fans, especially those of the Cubs, are encouraged to watch the hour-long interview. Hoyer speaks about transactions from previous seasons and provides some insight into the process for finalizing free agent deals and trades. He also fields questions on whether MLB will ever see a $1 billion free agent, handling fan expectations as a baseball operations leader, weathering the ups and downs of a 162-game season, and Sammy Sosa’s anticipated return at this weekend’s Cubs Convention.

Cubs, Kyle Tucker Avoid Arbitration

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The Cubs and Kyle Tucker have avoided arbitration, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The outfielder will make $16.5MM next year and won’t need to go to a hearing. Tucker is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Last week was the arbitration filing deadline, meaning that any teams and players who did not come to agreements had to exchange filing figures. The Cubs and Tucker did not agree, with the club filing at $15MM and Tucker at $17.5MM. The $2.5MM gap between their numbers was the largest of the 17 filings. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Tucker for a $15.8MM salary this year. If a hearing came to pass, the arbiter would have had to select either Tucker’s number or the club’s, with no ability to pick a midpoint.

That made the likelihood of a hearing very high. Teams and players are allowed to continue negotiating and free to reach deals after the filing deadline, though most teams take a “file-and-trial” approach these days. That means they have a policy against doing one-year deals after the deadline, thus giving them leverage in salary talks. When a file-and-trial team does a deal after the deadline, it usually involves an extra year, perhaps as an option. That prevents it from being used as a precedent in future arbitration calculations, so the overall trend of file-and-trial policies is to slow the inflation of salaries.

The Cubs have been a file-and-trial team, as most are these days, but have made an exception here. None of the reporting on Tucker’s deal suggests that there’s any kind of option. He is an impending free agent and excellent player, so he wasn’t going to give away a free agent year on a club option. The two sides could have agreed to some kind of mutual option that would never be picked up, but don’t appear to have done so.

It’s unclear why the Cubs broke from their usual policy here, paying Tucker beyond the midpoint of the filing numbers and his MLBTR projection. Speculatively speaking, it could be because he was just acquired from the Astros and the Cubs didn’t want to tarnish the beginning of their relationship with their new star player. An arbitration hearing can sometimes lead to friction between player and team, with Corbin Burnes with the Brewers and Ryan Helsley with the Cardinals some recent examples. Burnes spoke of his negative arbitration experience in February of 2023, while Helsley recounted his to Foul Territory in March of last year.

Tucker has previously gone to an arbitration hearing. He first qualified for arbitration going into 2023, with he and the Astros unable to reach an agreement for his salary that year. He filed at $7.5MM and the Astros at $5MM, with the club ultimately emerging victorious. The two sides avoided arbitration for 2024 by agreeing to a $12MM salary.

It’s also perhaps possible that the Cubs would like to keep Tucker for the long term and didn’t want to sour the relationship with a bad first impression. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently appeared on the Cubs Rekap Podcast with David Kaplan and Gordon Wittenmyer (hat tip to Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation) and discussed Tucker’s situation, downplaying his concern about the relationship with Tucker. He also said that there are no conversations about an extension. Though the Cubs would love to have Tucker long term, Hoyer suggested they would probably approach him about contract talks later, suggesting that playing in front of the home crowd at Wrigley would help their chances.

While it may be true that Tucker will enjoy the experience of being a Cub this year, there are still reasons to expect an extension isn’t likely. He’s been one of the best players in baseball recently. In the eyes of FanGraphs, he essentially averaged five wins above replacement per year from 2020 to 2023. He produced 1.8 fWAR in the shortened 2020 season, then finished the next three seasons with either 4.9 or 5.0 fWAR. In 2024, he took things to a new level with 4.2 fWAR in just 78 games, missing significant time due to a shin fracture.

He has hit .279/.358/.525 over those five seasons for a wRC+ of 143. He has stolen 88 bases and received strong grades for his outfield defense. His 20.9 fWAR over those years puts him in the top 15 among all position players in the league. He likely would have been in the top ten if not for fouling a ball off his shin and fracturing it last year.

Given that production and the fact that Tucker is set to be a free agent going into his age-29 season, he is well positioned for a significant payday. To lock up an MVP-caliber player a year before free agency isn’t cheap, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Mookie Betts got $365MM from the Dodgers while Francisco Lindor got $341MM from the Mets. The largest deal in Cubs’ history is their $184MM pact with Jason Heyward, so they would likely have to double that to keep Tucker from becoming a free agent next winter.

Yankees Acquire Michael Arias

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The Yankees announced that they have acquired right-hander Michael Arias from the Cubs in exchange for cash considerations. The latter club had designated Arias for assignment earlier this week. The Yankees have multiple 40-man vacancies and don’t need to make a corresponding move.

Arias, 23, was originally an international signing of the Blue Jays. Signed as a shortstop, he was released and then signed by the Cubs, who moved him to the mound. Arias has shown some potential as a pitcher but lack of control has been the biggest drawback, which isn’t especially surprising for a guy who has only been in this role for a few years.

Overall, Arias has thrown 182 innings across multiple levels over the past four years, allowing 4.25 earned runs per nine. His 27.7% strikeout rate in that time is a solid number, but his 16.5% walk rate is quite high.

Despite the issues, the Cubs added him to their 40-man roster in November of 2023 to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. His control didn’t improve in 2024, as he tossed 60 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.77 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate and 16.8% walk rate. When the Cubs signed Colin Rea, they bumped Arias off the roster.

For the Yankees, they have a few roster spots open, so there’s little harm in taking a flier. Arias still has a couple of options and can be kept in the minors as they try to help him harness his stuff better. Per Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice of FanGraphs, his arsenal includes “a mid-90s sinker, a potentially plus-plus changeup, and a righty-dowsing slider.”

MLBTR Podcast: The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Latest On Alex Bregman’s Market

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Alex Bregman remains unsigned with less than a month until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Bregman won’t be returning to the Astros after rejecting a reported six-year, $156MM offer that led Houston to pivot to an Isaac Paredes/Christian Walker corner infield tandem.

Early in the offseason, it seemed Bregman and his representation at the Boras Corporation were seeking to eclipse the $200MM mark. Whether that’s still the goal isn’t clear, though it stands to reason that some teams are hopeful he could move off a lofty ask as he lingers on the open market.

To that end, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score writes that the Cubs recently had “casual” conversations with Boras about Bregman. Levine suggests that the Cubs aren’t interested in offering a long-term deal. It seems they’re on the periphery of the market in case the two-time All-Star considers a shorter term with opt-out clauses. There’s nothing to suggest Bregman is currently willing to do so, however.

Chicago traded Paredes as the centerpiece of the Kyle Tucker blockbuster. Top prospect Matt Shaw is the favorite for the third base job. Shaw combined for a huge .284/.379/.488 slash with 21 homers and 31 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A last season. Giving him the starting job would be justifiable, but there’s no guarantee that even a prospect of Shaw’s caliber hits the ground running against big league pitching. The Cubs don’t really have a capable fallback in case Shaw falters. Vidal Bruján, Luis Vázquez and Rule 5 pick Gage Workman are the backup infielders on the 40-man roster.

Bregman would provide a much higher floor. He popped 26 homers with a .260/.315/.453 line in his final season in Houston. Bregman remained an All-Star caliber player despite taking dramatically fewer walks than he had in his previous six seasons. He’s entering his age-31 season, so while it’s understandable if teams are reluctant to commit six or seven years, Bregman shouldn’t be in danger of any kind of immediate drop-off.

The Cubs have sat out the top of the market for consecutive offseasons. They haven’t made a nine-figure investment since committing $177MM to Dansby Swanson over the 2022-23 winter. Chicago was never a factor on Juan Soto, nor did they seemingly have any interest in playing at the top of the starting pitching market. They’ve been loosely linked to Jack Flaherty, though it appears they’re similarly waiting on the fringe of the market in case a buy-low opportunity presents itself. The Cubs have roughly $198MM in luxury tax commitments, according to the RosterResource calculations, putting them more than $40MM shy of the base threshold.

Mariners Acquire Miles Mastrobuoni, Designate Nick Raposo

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The Mariners announced that they have acquired infielder/outfielder Miles Mastrobuoni from the Cubs. The latter club had designated him for assignment last week and now receives cash considerations for his departure. Seattle designated catcher Nick Raposo for assignment to open a roster spot.

Mastrobuoni, 29, has been a part-time big leaguer over the past few years. Over the past three seasons, he has appeared in 119 games and taken 272 plate appearances, mostly with the Cubs but also with the Rays. He has a tepid .219/.279/.263 batting line in that time but has stolen 16 bases in 17 tries while providing defensive versatility. He has spent time at the three infield positions to the left of first base as well as the outfield corners.

As is often the case with a depth player like this, the minor league performance has been better. Over the past three years, he’s had 982 Triple-A plate appearances with 22 home runs, an 18.1% strikeout rate, 12.8% walk rate, .278/.371/.434 slash line and 114 wRC+.

The Mariners have been looking for infield upgrades this winter. They lost Justin Turner to free agency, turned down an option on Jorge Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. That left them with J.P. Crawford at shortstop and no clear answers for the other positions. They have various possible solutions on the roster, including Luke Raley, Dylan Moore, Ryan Bliss, Austin Shenton and others, though strengthening the group has clearly been a goal this winter. The club signed Donovan Solano this week but shouldn’t be done.

Mastrobuoni won’t fix everything but he’s a solid addition to that cluster of potential contributors. He can bounce around to multiple positions and steal a few bases at least. The offense in the majors hasn’t been good yet but the minor league numbers have been better, perhaps suggesting there’s potential for more there. He also has an option remaining, meaning he doesn’t need to be given an active roster spot and can be shuttled between the minors and majors with relative ease.

Raposo, 27 in June, was just claimed off waivers from the Blue Jays last month. He hasn’t yet made his major league debut. He first got a 40-man roster spot from the Cardinals last summer, when both Iván Herrera and Willson Contreras were injured, but never got into a game. He went from the red birds to the blue birds in August when the Jays claimed him off waivers, though Toronto lost him to Seattle a few months later.

In his four years of minor league experience, he has a .241/.321/.387 line and 85 wRC+ in 808 plate appearances. Baseball Prospectus has given him solid marks for his blocking and throwing in the minors. He still has a couple of options and just a handful of days of service time.

The M’s will now have a week to figure out what’s next for Raposo. That could be a trade or Raposo could be put on waivers again. The waiver process takes 48 hours so any trade talks would need to happen in the next five days.

Dodgers, Padres, Blue Jays Reportedly Finalists For Roki Sasaki

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The Roki Sasaki frenzy is nearing its completion. Several teams have reportedly been told that they won’t be signing the right-hander and now Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays are the three finalists. The Cubs are no longer in the running, according to Mike Rodriguez, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic adding that the Cubs have been informed of their status.

It seems that today was the day that Sasaki and his reps started informing teams that had been eliminated from the running. Earlier today, various reports indicated that the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Rangers and Diamondbacks would not be signing Sasaki. The Mariners were vaguely connected to Sasaki at times and hadn’t been expressly eliminated, but it seems they didn’t make it to the podium as one of the top three.

Sasaki’s decision has been one of the biggest wild cards hanging over the offseason. Since he’s coming over to the big leagues before his 25th birthday, he’s considered an amateur under MLB rules and is therefore subject to the international bonus pool system. As such, no club could be initially ruled out just based on economics, as is usually the case with other free agents.

Each team gets an annual pool of money that they are allowed to spend on international amateurs. This year’s pools are in the $5-8MM range, with the smaller-market clubs mostly having the slightly larger ones. Teams can trade for more pool space but they can’t increase their initial allotment by more than 60%. A posting fee will also be owed to the Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki’s former club in Japan, though that will only add 20% of the bonus. As such, each team has roughly the same ability to pay Sasaki a few million bucks.

Sasaki is likely therefore to decide based on factors beyond money. After all, if money was his top priority, he probably would have waited until he turned 25. That’s what Yoshinobu Yamamoto did, which led to a $325MM deal from the Dodgers.

No one can say for sure what Sasaki is prioritizing, though the Dodgers and Padres have been seen as logical suitors for a while now. Both clubs are on the West Coast, which is closer to Japan, perhaps a favorable factor when considering the flights for Sasaki and his family members. The Dodgers also have a strong reputation as a whole, having made the postseason in each year going back to 2013, with a fresh World Series victory in 2024. The Padres don’t have quite the same track record of success but have been good in recent years.

Both clubs also have Japanese players on the roster, with the Dodgers having Yamamoto and Ohtani, while the Padres have Yu Darvish. Some reports have suggested Sasaki and Darvish have an especially close relationship.

The Jays have been floated as a landing spot for Sasaki far less than the Dodgers or Padres, which is sensible. They are not on the West Coast. They had a strong run of contention from 2020 to 2023 but are coming off a down season. They had Yusei Kikuchi until last year’s trade deadline but don’t currently have a Japanese player on the roster.

In April of 2023, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that “Some Japanese players are uncomfortable being major-league teammates with other Japanese players because of the importance of seniority in Japan’s hierarchical culture, major-league executives and agents say.” That piece was examining the possibility of Ohtani singing with the Mets when they already had Kodai Senga on the roster. Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe has downplayed the importance of a club having Japanese players on its roster, either positively or negatively. “That was never a topic of discussion,” Wolfe said last month, per Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.

It’s possible that Sasaki will be attracted to playing in another country for other reasons. Wolfe has suggested that the Japanese media was often unkind to Sasaki, which could perhaps make it preferable for him to be in a smaller market. Toronto isn’t exactly a small market but it would be further away from the American media spotlight. The Blue Jays are also owned by Rogers Communications, the media company that broadcasts the club’s games on television and radio. Perhaps that would allow the Jays to promise Sasaki a more guarded environment in terms of media access. Toronto is also a city with a reputation for its diversity and relatively low crime rates.

Those are all speculative arguments, but the same could be said about the arguments for Sasaki preferring Los Angeles or San Diego. Sasaki and Wolfe have given very few clues about what will be used to make the final decision, leaving the baseball world to mostly guess.

Whatever he decides will likely have ripple effects into the rest of the offseason. The Padres have a tight budget and needs all over their roster. Trading Dylan Cease is reportedly one potential solution to their situation, which would perhaps become more likely if they sign Sasaki. The Dodgers already have lots of rotation options and might consider a trade of their own if they add Sasaki. That’s perhaps less likely with the Jays, who have been trying to add a starting pitcher all winter without success thus far.

There will also be domino effects elsewhere. Whichever team signs Sasaki will likely have to walk away from verbal commitments to teenagers in Latin America, as they will need to redirect bonus money to Sasaki. That will lead to those players then looking for other clubs. Some of this has seemingly already started to happen, as the Pirates are reportedly going to sign Darell Morel, a Dominican shortstop that had previously been committed to the Dodgers.

It won’t take long for all of these knock-on effects to really ramp up. Sasaki’s posting window closes on January 23, meaning resolution will be coming in less than a week. He can’t officially sign until January 15, when the new international signing period begins, though it’s possible an agreement could be reported before then.

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