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Cubs Designate Michael Arias For Assignment

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The Cubs announced Monday that they’ve designated right-hander Michael Arias for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to fellow right-hander Colin Rea, whose previously reported one-year deal is now official.

Arias, 23, was selected to Chicago’s 40-man roster in the 2023-24 offseason in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. The infielder-turned-reliever spent the 2024 season in the upper minors, pitching to a combined 4.77 ERA in 60 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Arias was more effective at the former than the latter, logging a 3.75 ERA in Double-A but a 5.35 mark in Triple-A.

Command was an issue for Arias at both levels, as has been the case since he moved to the mound. The hard-throwing righty sits mid-90s with his sinker but has walked a dismal 16.5% of opponents in his professional career — including 19.6% of his opponents in 36 1/3 Triple-A frames this past season.

Even with that notable flaw, Arias still landed 11th on FanGraphs’ recent ranking of the Cubs’ farm system. Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice profiled the righty, touting a potential plus-plus changeup, a bat-missing slider and the ability to work multiple innings in relief. Arias’ location struggles — FanGraphs’ report notes that Arias “hasn’t even progressed to 40-grade control” yet — are prominent enough that the Cubs are comfortable trading him or exposing him to waivers.

While the Cubs may feel they don’t have room for him on their 40-man, Arias is a 23-year-old with a sinker up to 98 mph, a pair of average or better secondaries, and two minor league option years remaining. He seems like he’ll draw interest from another club, be it via a small trade or simply via waivers. The Cubs have five days to trade Arias. After that, he’ll need to be placed on waivers (a 48-hour process).

Cubs Sign Colin Rea

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Jan. 13: The Cubs have announced Rea’s signing.

Jan. 10: The Cubs are in agreement with Colin Rea on a one-year, $5MM guarantee. Rea receives a $4.25MM salary for the upcoming season and is guaranteed a $750K buyout on a $6MM club option for 2026. The right-hander is represented by Joe Speed. The Cubs have a full 40-man roster and will need to open a spot in order for this deal to become official.

Rea, 34, is coming off a solid two-year run with the Brewers. Over the 2023 and 2024 seasons, he tossed 292 1/3 innings for Milwaukee, making 49 starts and nine relief appearances. He allowed 4.40 earned runs per nine. His 19.9% strikeout rate was a bit below league average, but he showed strong control with a 6.6% walk rate.

The Brewers could have retained Rea for 2025 via a modest $5.5MM club option, but they somewhat surprisingly put him on waivers to see if any other club wanted him at that price point. No team ended up claiming him, so the Brewers simply went for the $1MM buyout instead. By getting $5MM from the Cubs on top of that $1MM buyout, Rea will come out marginally better financially than if the Brewers had simply picked up the option.

By joining the Cubs, Rea will be reunited with manager Craig Counsell, who was the skipper in Milwaukee before coming to Chicago a year ago. Rea was also with the Brewers in 2021, though he only got to pitch six innings in the majors that year. He then headed to Japan for the 2022 season, parlaying his decent performance over there into a return to the Brewers two years ago.

Rea doesn’t overpower hitters, averaging around 93 miles per hour on his fastball over the past two years, but he can keep them off balance with a diverse mix of six pitches. Per Statcast, he also threw a sinker, cutter, sweeper, splitter and curveball. He also didn’t lean on any one pitch too often, topping out with his sinker in each of the past two seasons, around 30% of the time in each year. That’s helped him have fairly neutral splits, with lefties hitting .257/.308/.465 against him last year and righties at .258/.315/.429.

For the Cubs, Rea is likely to slot into a similar swing role to the one he served with the Brewers. Chicago signed Matthew Boyd earlier this winter, adding him to a rotation mix that already had Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon. Rea and Javier Assad have somewhat similar numbers over the past two years and could perhaps compete for the fifth spot in the rotation if everyone is healthy, with the other perhaps getting a long relief role in the bullpen.

Of course, rotations shift over the course of a season. Injuries are inevitable and some players will perform better or worse than expectations. The Cubs have guys like Jordan Wicks, Caleb Kilian, Ben Brown and Cody Poteet also on the 40-man roster, though they all still have options and are fairly lacking in experience. Prospect Cade Horton is not yet on the roster but could force his way into the mix during the upcoming season.

It’s also possible that the Cubs will make further moves to change the rotation plan. Since acquiring Boyd and trading Wesneski, they have been connected to free agent Jack Flaherty and trade candidates like Luis Castillo and Jesús Luzardo. The latter was already traded from the Marlins to the Phillies but another rotation acquisition of some kind is not off the table.

Rea’s role figures to be determined by those moves as well as the health and performance of everyone on the roster, including his own. He improves the depth of the pitching staff at a fairly low cost, relatively speaking. The starting pitching market has been aggressive this winter, as guys like Justin Verlander and Alex Cobb got $15MM guarantees despite being relatively older veterans coming off injury-marred seasons. Rea doesn’t have the same track record or ceiling as those guys but has been healthy and performing well lately, with just one third the salary commitment.

RosterResource now has the Cubs at a payroll of $181MM and a competitive balance tax number of $198MM. Last year, they eventually got to a $228MM payroll and went narrowly over the tax line. It’s unclear if they want to get to the same levels in 2025, but even if they want to avoid the tax, they can still add about $40MM to their CBT number while doing so. This year’s base CBT threshold is $241MM.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams first reported that the Cubs and Rea had agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported the presence of a ’26 club option. MLBTR reported the option terms.

Cubs, Yankees Among Teams Interested In Brooks Raley

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Left-hander Brooks Raley is drawing interest from clubs as he continues rehabbing from Tommy John surgery over the summer, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic. The Cubs and Yankees are among the clubs to have reached out and some teams have discussed multi-year arrangements with Raley, though it’s not clear if the Cubs and Yankees are among the teams to have expressed multi-year interest.

Raley, 36, made his big league debut with the Cubs back in 2012 but totaled just 38 1/3 innings of work before departing stateside ball for South Korea back in 2015. He spent several years pitching in the KBO before resurfacing in the majors during the 2020 season as a middle relief option. He enjoyed a late-career breakout in Tampa back in 2022, however, and since then has been nothing short of excellent when healthy enough to take the mound with a 2.58 ERA (153 ERA+), a 3.13 FIP, and a 27.3% strikeout rate over the past three years with the Rays and Mets.

Dominant as he’s been in recent years, a player on the wrong side of 35 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery comes with plenty of question marks. That might make the idea of a multi-year deal seem somewhat surprising, but in some ways it could actually help the acquiring club more reliably secure a return on their investment. After all, Raley figures to only be available for the second half in 2025 and some players need time to shake off the rust following a long layoff like the one Raley is currently experiencing. Given that, a deal that pays Raley a relatively low salary for 2025 but comes with a second guaranteed year at a higher rate could make sense for both sides by guaranteeing Raley a longer-term opportunity coming off surgery while affording the club some protection against Raley struggling in his initial return from surgery before righting the ship and returning to form later on.

Looking at the teams being connected to Raley, it’s fairly easy to see why he’d be of interest to them. The Cubs have been in the market for relief help all winter. While the club already signed Caleb Thielbar as a left-handed option for their bullpen last month, that likely wouldn’t preclude them from adding a player like Raley because he is both more of a bonafide late-inning arm than Thielbar and wouldn’t factor into the club’s Opening Day roster due to his rehab timeline. Chicago has shown a willingness to sign rehabbing players in the past, as well. They were involved in Liam Hendriks’ market last winter and previously signed players like Kendall Graveman and Drew Smyly while they were rehabbing.

The Yankees, meanwhile, have already added Devin Williams to replace Clay Holmes in the ninth inning, giving them a strong one-two punch at the back of the bullpen with Luke Weaver set for an eighth-inning role. One place where the club’s bullpen could stand to be upgraded, however, is from the left side. Southpaw Tim Hill pitched well for the Yanks in 2024 but is currently a free agent. While Raley wouldn’t be available for at least the first half of the season, the club currently has no left-handed relievers on their 40-man roster and could be forced to use a reverse-splits righty like Mark Leiter Jr. against tough left-handed relievers in 2025 without an external addition.

17 Players Exchange Filing Figures

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This evening’s deadline to exchange filing figures has come and gone. The majority of arbitration-eligible players agreed to contracts to avoid going to a hearing. There were 17 instances where the player and team did not come to terms.

Technically, nothing prevents players and teams from continuing to negotiate. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.

If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. They cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.

The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):

Angels

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Dodgers

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Pirates

Rays

Red Sox

Yankees

—————————————

Tucker and the Cubs have the biggest gap in filing figures at $2.5MM. He’s one of the top two free agents in next year’s class and is unlikely to sign an extension, so they’re almost certainly headed to a hearing. King, who will be one of the best pitchers on the open market next winter, is the only other player with more than $1MM at stake depending on the results of the hearing. The smallest divide is the paltry $150K gap between Rengifo’s and the Angels’ respective filing figures. Hearings are scheduled to begin on January 27 and could run through February 14.

Cubs Granted Fourth Option Year On Caleb Kilian

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The Cubs have been granted a fourth option year for right-hander Caleb Kilian, per a report from Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.

Typically, players have three option seasons with one used each season during which the player spends at least 20 days on optional assignment in the minor leagues. A player is considered to be on optional assignment when on a club’s 40-man roster but sent to the minor leagues while not on a rehab assignment. Kilian, 28 in June, was first placed on Chicago’s 40-man roster back in 2022 and has been optioned to the minor leagues in each of the 2022-24 campaigns with at least 20 days in the minors each season. Under normal circumstances, that would leave him out of options headed into the 2025 campaign, meaning the Cubs would have to expose Kilian to waivers before attempting to return him to the minor leagues.

Occasionally, however, teams are granted a fourth option year on certain players, typically due to the player missing significant time with injury. MLB.com explains that players with less than five full professional seasons (defined as at least 90 days on a major or minor league active roster) are eligible for a fourth option year. That applies to Kilian, who missed the majority of the 2024 season due to a teres major strain suffered during Spring Training and did not make his season debut until July 2. Kilian also did not pitch in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season and pitched for just one month in 2019 after being drafted by the Giants in June of that year. That leaves Kilian with just three full professional seasons under his belt: 2021, 2022, and 2023.

The news affords the Cubs additional flexibility as they sort through their many bullpen options for the 2025 season. Presently, the club has Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Julian Merryweather, Caleb Thielbar, Eli Morgan, Luke Little, Nate Pearson, Keegan Thompson, Rob Zastryzny, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts, and Gavin Hollowell all on the 40-man roster and in the mix for a role in the Opening Day bullpen before even considering starting pitchers like Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Cody Poteet and now Kilian that currently project as part of the Triple-A rotation. A handful of non-roster veterans like Phil Bickford and Brooks Kriske could also be in the mix for a job.

Of that massive group of potential bullpen arms, Thielbar, Miller, Merryweather, Zastryzny, Thompson, and Festa all do not have options remaining. With just eight spots in the Opening Day bullpen, Kilian also being out of options would’ve left just one open space to fill before the club would’ve had to start exposing players from the aforementioned to waivers in order to mix in the club’s many optionable relief arms, including key players like Hodge, Pearson, and Morgan. Injuries and Spring Training roster cuts will surely thin that group out in the months leading up to Opening Day, but the news regarding Kilian’s fourth option year offers the Cubs a bit more breathing room as they look to piece together their pitching corps for 2025.

An inability to option Kilian also would have likely ended whatever hopes the right-hander may have of continuing to be a potential option for the starting rotation; while Kilian has a deep pitch mix and the stamina to start, his control has been sorely lacking. The right-hander has accrued 27 1/3 innings of work in the majors to this point in his career and in that time has struggled to a 9.22 ERA and 5.32 FIP while walking (14.6%) nearly as many batters as he’s struck out (15.3%). With that said, he was effective at the Triple-A level when healthy enough to take the mound last year, with a 3.22 ERA and a 20.3% strikeout rate against a 7.5% walk rate.

Whether he ultimately finds a home in the rotation or the bullpen, a fourth option year has left the door open to Kilian establishing himself more firmly as a viable big league option with additional time to develop in the minors, and allows the Cubs one final year to evaluate the righty before he either has to be kept on the active roster permanently or exposed to waivers during the 2026 campaign.

Cubs Acquire Matt Festa

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The Cubs have acquired right-hander Matt Festa from the Rangers in exchange for cash considerations, both teams announced. Festa was designated for assignment by the Rangers earlier this week to accommodate the signing of Chris Martin. To make room for Festa on the 40-man roster, the Cubs have designated utility man Miles Mastrobuoni for assignment.

Festa, 31, was a seventh-round pick by the Mariners back in 2016. The righty looked good during his first cup of coffee at the big league level back in 2018, but a subsequent cameo with the Mariners in 2019 saw him struggle badly with a 5.64 ERA in 20 appearances. That would be his last taste of big league action for a couple of years, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020 and next pitched for the Mariners during the 2022 season. He was more or less an average middle reliever for Seattle over the next two seasons, with a 4.14 ERA (91 ERA+) and 4.48 FIP in 63 innings of work before he was designated for assignment and eventually released late in the 2023 season.

That led into a one-year period where Festa bounced around a number of different teams in the league. After being picked up on a minor league deal with the Padres last January, Festa did not crack the club’s big league roster out of Spring Training and pitched to a solid but unspectacular 4.50 ERA in 16 innings before San Diego granted him his release in mid-May. He signed with the Mets on a minor league deal just a few days later and was selected to the club’s big league roster in the late June, but found himself torched for five runs (four earned) in his lone inning of work with the club before he was once again cut loose. That led him to sign his third minor league deal of the year, this time with the Rangers, in early July.

After being added to the Rangers roster for the stretch run back in August, Festa pitched solidly enough with a 4.37 ERA (92 ERA+) and a strong 3.34 FIP. He posted some of the best strikeout and walk numbers he’s ever enjoyed at the big league level during his time in Texas as he punched out 25% of opponents while allowing free passes at a 7.6% clip. His peripheral numbers were something of a mixed bag during that time; while his .254 BABIP and 5.9% home-run-to-fly-ball rate both erred on the side of good fortune, Festa’s 54.1% strand rate was extremely low and suggested some bad luck when it came to sequencing.

It was an interesting enough profile for the Rangers to keep him on the 40-man roster early in the winter, but he became expendable once the club added a number of more reliable relief arms to their bullpen throughout the offseason. Now, he’ll head to Chicago with a chance to compete for a role in the Cubs’ bullpen this Spring. Currently, Chicago’s relief corps includes fellow offseason trade addition Eli Morgan, free agent signing Caleb Thielbar, and a handful of internal options such as Porter Hodge, Julian Merryweather, Luke Little, Tyson Miller, and Nate Pearson. It’s a group with plenty of flexibility but few set-in-stone options, and it would hardly be a surprise to see the Cubs continue to search for bullpen upgrades going forward this winter.

To bring Festa into the fold, the Cubs are risking parting ways with Mastrobuoni. The utility man has played adequate defense all over the diamond for Chicago in each of the past two seasons but has failed to establish himself offensively ever since being acquired from the Rays prior to the 2023 season. In 255 trips to the plate with the Cubs in 110 games over the past two years, Mastrobuoni has hit just .221/.282/.268. While his 15 stolen bases in 16 attempts and his ability to play the outfield corners, shortstop, second and third base have helped him provide value outside the batters’ box, that anemic slash line makes it easy to see why the club would decide to move on.

Even without Mastrobuoni in the fold, the Cubs figure to have plenty internal depth available in terms of utility players who can hit from the left side, with recent acquisition Vidal Bruján and Rule 5 Draft selection Gage Workman both currently in the mix for a bench job in 2025. Going forward, Chicago will have one week to either trade Mastrobuoni or place him on waivers. It’s not impossible to imagine a club bringing Mastrobuoni, who has a minor league option remaining, into the fold as optionable depth. Should he clear waivers, the Cubs will have the opportunity to outright him to Triple-A as a non-roster depth option for the 2025 campaign.

MLBTR Podcast: Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Cubs, Mariners Among Teams Interested In Yoan Moncada

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“Several” teams remain involved the market for third baseman Yoán Moncada, according to a report from Francys Romero this afternoon. Romero goes on to report that the Cubs and Mariners are among the clubs with interest in Moncada’s services in addition to the Blue Jays, who were previously reported as a potential suitor last month.

After spending eight seasons on the south side of Chicago, the prospect of Moncada moving on to the north side and joining the Cubs makes plenty of sense. The switch-hitter has primarily played third base throughout his career but has also spent time at the keystone. Those are perhaps the two positions where the Cubs could stand to benefit most from shoring up their depth. The club parted ways with third baseman Isaac Paredes as part of the deal that brought Kyle Tucker to Chicago last month, and while top prospect Matt Shaw seems poised to take over everyday reps at the hot corner he has just 35 games of experience at the Triple-A level.

It would be a surprise for the club to simply anoint an unproven player as an everyday player, even one as talented as Shaw. To that end, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer indicated last month that Shaw will have to “earn” the position in Spring Training. There’s at least some semblance of internal competition for the role in the form of Rule 5 draft pick Gage Workman as well as utility infielders Miles Mastrobuoni and Vidal Bruján, but adding a player with more of a big league track record to the mix could give Shaw some more robust competition for the role. Moncada is as good a choice as any player available on the infield market for that role. Though he’s often been injured in recent years, he’s hit a respectable .262/.311/.422 (101 wRC+) over the past two seasons and was a well above-average regular as recently as 2021.

In addition to providing competition to Shaw this spring, adding Moncada to the Cubs’ infield mix would give the club additional protection against the possibility that incumbent second baseman Nico Hoerner isn’t ready for Opening Day. Hoerner underwent flexor tendon surgery back in October, and the Cubs have subsequently indicated that although he’s expected to be ready early in the 2025 season at the latest, a specific timetable for his return won’t be clear until camp opens next month. With so much uncertainty surrounding both second and third base, the addition of Moncada to the mix would give the Cubs a high-upside veteran who could fill in for Hoerner in the lineup early in the year and act as an insurance policy against Shaw struggling in his first taste of big league action.

As for the Mariners, MLBTR discussed Moncada as a potential fit for their needs at third base in a post last night. Given the club’s wide-open third base competition, the prospect of everyday playing time is one that would surely appeal to Moncada if it were to be made available to him. With that being said, Moncada’s 29.4% strikeout rate over the past two seasons could give the Mariners some level of pause given their efforts to cut down on strikeouts in their lineup over the past couple of years. With that being said, the third base options available in free agency this winter are fairly limited and it’s difficult to imagine Seattle finding a clearly better option for the hot corner unless they can swing a trade for a player like Alec Bohm or Willi Castro.

While Toronto’s interest in Moncada’s services isn’t exactly news, it’s nonetheless noteworthy given that prior reports of interest in his services originated prior to the Andrés Giménez trade last month. With Giménez and Bo Bichette seemingly locked into the club’s middle infield barring a Bichette trade coming together at some point, that seemingly left youngsters like Ernie Clement and Addison Barger to jockey for playing time at the hot corner. Adding Moncada to the mix might push those youngsters to the bench or Triple-A, though it’s also possible that the Jays could instead have a bench role in mind for Moncada while Clement remains as the club’s likely regular at third.

Giants Declined To Include Bryce Eldridge In Tucker/Crochet Trade Offers

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The Giants were known to have had interest in Kyle Tucker before the Astros traded the outfielder to the Cubs, and The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly shared some details on that pursuit plus the new information that the Giants were one of the many teams who talked to the White Sox about Garrett Crochet.  San Francisco “made legitimate offers” for both Tucker and Crochet, Baggarly writes, “to the point that [the Giants] were said to feel a bit uncomfortable with the players they were willing to sacrifice.”  However, neither offer included top prospect Bryce Eldridge, and thus no trades materialized since the Astros and Sox each viewed Eldridge’s inclusion as “a prerequisite.”

Eldridge was the 16th overall pick of the 2023 draft, and he has already hit .292/.379/.514 with 29 home runs over 649 plate appearances in the minors even before he turned 20 years old last October.  This hot hitting saw Eldridge moved up the ladder to four different affiliates during the 2024 season, though it is worth noting that his numbers dropped off (in small sample sizes) as he played higher levels of minor league ball.  Eldridge had a more modest .785 OPS in 40 PA with Double-A Richmond and then a .601 OPS in 35 PA with Triple-A Sacramento.

Since he has already reached Triple-A, it isn’t out of the question that Eldridge’s MLB debut could come during the 2025 season, especially given how San Francisco was already aggressive with his early promotions.  LaMonte Wade Jr. is a free agent next winter and has been the subject of trade speculation even this offseason, so the path should soon be clear for Eldridge as the Bay Area’s first baseman of the future.  While the Giants will naturally want to see him post better numbers in the upper minors before calling him to the Show, it is easy to see the potential in the 6’7″, 223-pound first baseman.

Eldridge fits the mold of a classic left-handed slugger, and scouting reports from both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America praise his huge power and his mature approach at the plate.  Pipeline and BA each place Eldridge 35th in the most recent editions of their league-wide top-100 prospects rankings.  He is the only Giants minor leaguer in Baseball America’s rankings, while Pipeline also has James Tibbs III (the 13th overall pick of the 2024 draft) 88th on their list.

In either case, Eldridge is certainly the top prospect in a San Francisco farm system that is considered to be relatively thin, so it isn’t surprising that the Giants aren’t eager to move him in any trades.  Obviously this is a big roadblock in negotiations, since as Baggarly notes, “any team dangling a solid-average everyday player or better is going to start by asking for Eldridge — and not likely to move off that position.”

The White Sox were known to be focusing on young position players in exchange for Crochet, and indeed three of the four prospects Chicago received from the Red Sox in the trade package were position players.  As per Pipeline’s rankings of San Francisco’s farm system, the Giants are slightly deeper in position players than pitchers, though not to the level of Boston’s depth.  Likewise, the Cubs still have a wealth of position players in their minor league system even after moving Cam Smith as part of the Tucker trade.

Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey and GM Zack Minasian have yet to complete a trade in their limited time leading the San Francisco front office, though in the view of rival executives, Baggarly hears the Giants have been “hyperactive in attempting to generate trade dialogue.”  Since questions remain about how much ownership is willing to commit to the payroll this season, the trade market could therefore be the Giants’ best method of adding talent to the roster, though that creates another layer of complication if other teams are chiefly focused on Eldridge among the minor league prospects.  As Baggarly frames the situation, some other front offices have been trying to see if they can get Posey or Minasian to bite on an unfavorable trade out of sheer inexperience, which has “led to a few opening offers…that have amounted to non-starters and time wasters.”

In terms of other trade candidates, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle details some of the players the Giants could still look to pry away from rival teams, and reports that the Giants “had some interest” in Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner earlier this winter.  The past-tense phrasing, however, indicates that San Francisco moved on after signing Willy Adames as the new everyday shortstop, so Tyler Fitzgerald now looks to move from shortstop to second base.

Latest On Jack Flaherty

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Jack Flaherty is the top unsigned starter as the calendar flips to 2025. While there haven’t been a ton of teams publicly linked to the right-hander, Flaherty was tied to the Orioles before their agreement with Charlie Morton this evening.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote this afternoon that the Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants and Tigers are among the teams that “remain in the mix.” Feinsand also listed the Orioles as a suitor, though his column was published before the Morton signing. It’s not clear if that’ll take them out of the running. In an appearance on Foul Territory yesterday, Baltimore Baseball’s Rich Dubroff suggested the O’s could be reluctant to meet Flaherty’s asking price.

Will Sammon and Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote earlier this week that Flaherty was believed to be seeking a deal of at least five years. That’d probably be the necessary term if he’s to get into nine figures. MLBTR predicted Flaherty for five years and $115MM at the beginning of the offseason. The market has been favorable to starting pitching, but Flaherty has yet to find a deal to his liking.

He’s coming off an excellent season. Flaherty combined for a 3.17 ERA while striking out nearly 30% of batters faced between the Tigers and Dodgers. He walked fewer than 6% of opponents while getting swinging strikes at a strong 13.3% clip. It was easily his best season since his dominant finish to the 2019 campaign when he was a member of the Cardinals. Flaherty battled injuries between 2020-22 and struggled in ’23, when he allowed an ERA just below 5.00 across 29 appearances.

The inconsistency is a concern, as is Flaherty’s injury history. He’s been generally durable over the past two seasons, but the Yankees reportedly nixed a deadline trade because of concerns about his back. Flaherty went to the Dodgers instead and held up for the rest of the season. He didn’t pitch well in the postseason, but there’s no indication he wasn’t at full health during L.A.’s World Series run.

Flaherty’s fantastic regular season gives him a solid case for five years. He just turned 29 and isn’t attached to a qualifying offer because he was traded midseason. There hasn’t been a four-year free agent deal for a starting pitcher this offseason. Max Fried and Corbin Burnes got six-plus years, while Blake Snell signed for five. Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi and Yusei Kikuchi all signed three-year deals. Flaherty should beat that group and presumably expects to top the four years and $80MM which Eduardo Rodriguez received last winter.

That’s without many clearly interested teams, however. Baltimore has added Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano on one-year deals, suggesting they may be reluctant to make a significant pitching investment. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma wrote at the Winter Meetings that while the Cubs had some interest in Flaherty, they were hesitant to meet an elevated asking price.

San Francisco didn’t make as strong a push as many expected for Burnes. President of baseball operations Buster Posey recently suggested to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic that the club was optimistic about its young starters and searching for offensive help. The Tigers might be in a similar spot. They’ve been tied to Alex Bregman and Anthony Santander recently. Detroit GM Jeff Greenberg indicated after they signed Alex Cobb at the Winter Meetings that they weren’t likely to be big factors in the rotation market aside from a long shot push for Roki Sasaki (link via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press). Toronto has been linked to essentially every free agent but remains in the Bregman/Santander markets and could prioritize free agency’s top relievers.

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