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Astros, Braves, Cardinals Reportedly Interested In Zach Eflin

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The Rays have been open to trading from their rotation this year and could do so again, with right-hander Zach Eflin one of the possible candidates. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Astros, Braves and Cardinals are “among the teams expected to have strong interest” in the righty.

The Rays aren’t fully in the seller camp as they are currently 51-51 and just 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. However, their rotation health has improved as the season has gone along and given them a relative surplus. That has allowed them to explore deals that either address another area of the roster, bolster the prospect depth, save some money or some combination of those goals.

Each of Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen began the season recovering from past arm surgeries. The Rays had a rotation of Eflin, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell and Aaron Civale for most of this year. Once they were ready to put Baz back into the rotation, they flipped Civale to the Brewers for a prospect and called up Baz.

A similar trade could make sense in the coming days. Pepiot is currently on the injured list with a knee infection but isn’t expected to be out for too long, while the Rays have Springs and Rasmussen both currently on rehab assignments. It’s therefore possible that they could trade a pitcher or two and still go through the stretch run with a healthy rotation. They have Tyler Alexander and Jacob Lopez around as depth and then Shane McClanahan should be back in the mix next year, after he recovers from his own elbow surgery.

Most of the pitchers in Tampa’s rotation mix are controllable for many years but Eflin and Littell are each slated for free agency after 2025. Eflin is a particularly sensible candidate for the budget-conscious club due to his contract. He signed a three-year, $40MM deal with Tampa going into 2023, with that deal being backloaded. He made $11MM last year and has that salary again here in 2024, with a jump to $18MM next year.

That is vaguely reminiscent of the extension that the Rays signed with Tyler Glasnow. While he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, Glasnow signed a two-year extension with the Rays which was also heavily backloaded. He was paid $5.35MM in 2023, his final arbitration season and a year in which he was expected to return from the surgery. The Rays also gained an extra year of control over him by giving him a $25MM salary for 2024.

He ended up returning in 2023 as expected, tossing 120 innings with a 3.53 earned run average. But before the big salary jump kicked in, he was traded to the Dodgers in a four-player deal that brought back Pepiot.

With Eflin set for a big raise next year and the Rays having plenty of other rotation options, he could be on the move shortly and should have plenty of suitors. He’s been a solid rotation stalwart for several years now, first with the Phillies and then with the Rays since signing his aforementioned deal. Dating back to the start of 2018, he has a 4.01 ERA in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate in that time is close to par but he’s limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%.

Health has been an issue for Eflin, largely due to knee problems. He was limited to just 181 1/3 innings over 2021 and 2022, his final two years in Philadelphia, but has managed to stay on the mound more in Tampa. He logged 177 2/3 innings over 31 starts last year with a 3.50 ERA. This year, he’s already up to 19 starts and 110 innings with a 4.09 ERA. He had brief stints on the IL both years due to lower back issues but otherwise kept the train on the tracks.

That type of solid performance would have plenty of appeal and the listed teams each make sense as a landing spot. Atlanta lost Spencer Strider to UCL surgery and also saw Max Fried head to the injured list recently, along with depth options like Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.

Currently, their rotation consists of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach, with various guys rotating through the back end. Bolstering that group with an external addition or two is plenty logical. Fried could perhaps be back but there’s risk in the current composition. Sale has a lengthy injury history and the club might want to hedge against him getting hurt again, even though he’s stayed healthy this year. López was just returned to a starting role after working as a reliever for a few years and could perhaps run out of gas later in the year. Morton’s gas tank might also be a factor just because he’s now 40 years old. Schwellenbach has been performing well but has just nine career starts in the majors.

The fact that Eflin is under contract for next year is likely appealing to Atlanta as well. Fried and Morton are both impending free agents, with the latter a possibility to consider retiring at season’s end. Strider will still be out of action by the start of 2025 so the on-paper rotation for next year will be Sale, López and a few question marks. Schwellenbach and some of the other young guys could step up and fill that in, but it’s no guarantee, so adding Eflin into the group would make sense.

The competitive balance tax may be a concern, as Atlanta is currently at $273MM, per the calculations of RosterResource. If they cross the third threshold of $277MM, they would not only incur a higher tax rate but their top pick in next year’s draft would also be moved back ten spots. Given where they are, they probably prefer to stay south of that line.

Eflin’s CBT hit is currently $13.33MM, based on the average annual value of his three-year, $40MM deal. However, a player’s CBT hit is recalculated when he is traded. If a deal comes together in the next few days, he would have about a third of this year’s $11MM salary remaining, in the ballpark of $3.67MM. Combined with his $18MM salary next year, that’s $21.67MM over a season and a third, making for a CBT hit of $16.3MM. If Atlanta acquires him for the final two months of the season, they would put a third of that figure on their CBT calculation for this year, or $5.43MM.

Assuming the RR calculations are close to correct, taking on Eflin’s entire contract might be problematic for Atlanta, so they might try to get creative and have Tampa eat a portion of the deal. Next year’s CBT hit is far lower, currently at $185MM, but they will undoubtedly add to that with some offseason moves.

The Astros have also had their share of rotation challenges this year, with Cristian Javier and José Urquidy both requiring Tommy John surgery. Luis Garcia has yet to return from his own TJS operation from last year while Lance McCullers Jr. is still trying to get back from his own elbow procedure. Justin Verlander is also on the shelf with a neck injury.

Their current rotation consists of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss. Brown has recovered from an awful start to the season but each of Blanco, Arrighetti and Bloss is lacking in experience. Blanco only recently moved to the rotation after years of bullpen work while Arrighetti and Bloss are rookies who both have ERAs north of 5.60 so far this year.

Like Atlanta, Houston is set to pay the CBT this year but they have far more wiggle room. Houston’s CBT number is currently at $256MM, per RR. That’s just shy of the $257MM second line but crossing that only comes with a slight bump in tax rate and no draft pick penalties.

The Cardinals have a solid rotation front four consisting of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas. With Steven Matz injured, they have had Andre Pallante holding down the fifth spot lately. Pallante has a decent 3.42 ERA in his nine starts but he has a subpar strikeout rate of 19.8% and a limited track record overall.

Adding Eflin could bolster that group for this year and 2025 as well. Both Gibson and Lynn are on one-year deals and could be free agents this winter. They both have club options on their deals but it’s not a guarantee that the Cardinals would pick either of those up. Unlike Atlanta and Houston, the CBT is not a huge concern in St. Louis. RR currently has the Cards at $215MM, which is $22MM south of the $237MM base threshold.

Astros Among Teams Interested In Isaac Paredes

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The Astros, looking to lengthen their lineup and get more production out of first base, are among the teams with interest in Rays infielder Isaac Paredes, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. As Rome explains, the bottom third of Houston’s lineup has produced a disastrous .254 OBP since Kyle Tucker went on the injured list 40 games ago, shortening the lineup and leaving a lot of pressure on the top of the batting order.

Paredes is a natural fit for the Astros, though between his affordable $3.4MM salary, his three additional years of club control, his defensive versatility and this year’s .250/.352/.445 slash, he’d fit on the majority of contenders around the league. Paredes has been Tampa Bay’s primary third baseman this season, but he has considerable experience at both second base and first base as well, and he’s even played 50 innings of shortstop in the majors. He’s probably not cut out for long-term shortstop work, but Statcast feels he’s been average or better at each of the three other infield spots.

Among the 148 qualified hitters in MLB this season, only one has a higher pull rate than Paredes: Houston’s own Jose Altuve. That pull-happy approach from a righty power bat like Paredes makes the Astros’ Minute Maid Park — and the short left field porch in the Crawford Boxes — a particularly interesting fit. Paredes popped 31 homers last season and has 16 so far in 2024.

The Astros have gotten virtually nothing out of first base this season. Jose Abreu was released in the second season of an ill-fated three-year contract. Jon Singleton has been the primary option since. He’s hitting .230/.321/.345 on the season. That’s seven percent worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, at a position where above-average offense is typically expected. Singleton also grades as a poor first base defender and poor baserunner.

Swapping Singleton out for Paredes and then pairing him with Tucker’s eventual return could have a transformative impact on the Houston lineup. The benefits of adding Paredes would be further reaching in the long-term, too. Alex Bregman is slated to become a free agent this offseason, and while the Astros figure to be part of his offseason market, he’s hardly a guarantee to re-sign. Keeping Bregman could require a longer and more lucrative contract than the ’Stros have given out to anyone under owner Jim Crane; Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal is the longest contract issued under Crane, while Altuve’s 2018 extension that guaranteed him $151MM in new money is the largest guarantee. If Bregman doesn’t stay in Houston, Paredes could shift across the diamond to third base in 2025.

For all the reasons just listed, however, Paredes will be extremely expensive to acquire — at least in terms of prospects/young talent. Any of the Yankees, Dodgers, Mariners and Red Sox (among others) stand as obvious fits and suitors for him. The market will be competitive. And, since Paredes is controllable through the 2027 season and should earn under $10MM next season in arbitration, the Rays likely don’t feel a need to move him. They’ll listen, as they do on all of their players, but it’ll take a genuinely compelling offer to pry three-plus years of one of the game’s most underrated infielders from their grasp.

That said, the Rays have sufficient infield depth to withstand the loss of Paredes. Third baseman Junior Caminero ranks as one of the sport’s top five prospects and is ready for a look in the majors. Caminero’s presence alone doesn’t make Paredes expendable — he could easily move to another infield position or just bounce between multiple slots on a regular basis — but having a ready-made replacement does make it a bit easier to move him than if the cupboard behind him were bare. Other, more expensive veterans on the Rays (e.g. Zach Eflin, Randy Arozarena) seem likelier to move between now and next Tuesday’s deadline, but Paredes should draw heavy interest in his own right and likely could be had with a substantial enough offer.

Astros Select Aledmys Díaz, Designate David Hensley

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The Astros have selected the contract of infielder/outfielder Aledmys Díaz, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic on X. In corresponding moves, they optioned infielder Grae Kessinger and designated infielder David Hensley for assignment.

Díaz, 33, signed a minor league deal with the Astros just over a week ago. He had been with the Athletics since signing a two-year deal with them going into 2023 but struggled essentially from the moment that deal was signed. He hit just .229/.280/.337 with Oakland in 2023 and then spent most of this year on the injured list due to groin and calf injuries. He hit .103/.133/.103 in 30 plate appearances before the A’s moved on.

By releasing him, the A’s remain on the hook for what’s left of his $8MM salary this year. Any other club would only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the A’s pay. The Astros decided to step in by signing Díaz and sent him to the Complex League, where he hit .333/.313/.400 in four games.

The Astros will undoubtedly be hoping that he can put that performance with the A’s behind him and return to the form he showed in his previous stint in Houston. With the Astros from 2019 to 2022, he slashed .255/.313/.424 for a wRC+ of 102 while lining up at all four infield spots and the outfield corners. If he can get back into that ballpark, he can be a nice multi-positional bench piece for the Astros once again.

Hensley, 28, has been on Houston’s 40-man roster since August of 2022 but has been on optional assignment for most of that time. He has 128 major league plate appearances in 46 games with a line of .177/.273/.274 in those.

He had performed well in the minors prior to getting that roster spot but has tailed off since. He slashed .295/.395/.458 in the minors over 2021 and 2022 for a wRC+ of 124. He struck out 22.8% of the time but drew walks at a strong clip of 13.9%. However, a .380 batting average on balls in play suggested that performance wasn’t quite sustainable.

Over 2023 and 2024, his BABIP corrected to a more normal level of .308 and his line has dropped to .228/.358/.367. His walk rate increased to 16.6% in the latter stretch but he’s also been punched out 26.3% of the time.

The Astros will now have a week to trade Hensley or pass him through waivers. Since the waiver process takes 48 hours, they have five days to explore any trade possibilities. If any club has interest in Hensley as a depth piece, he can still be optioned for rest of this year and one additional season. He also has less than a year of service time and therefore many years of club control. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would stick with the Astros in a non-roster capacity.

GM Dana Brown On Astros’ Starting Pitching Pursuit

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The Astros have a well-known need in the rotation, and general manager Dana Brown, never afraid to speak candidly, was open about his desire to upgrade/deepen the rotation mix in the next eight days in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (X link, with audio).

“Try go to big and see if there’s a deal that makes sense for the organization,” Brown said of his efforts to add a starter. “If that don’t work, we’ll go down to mid-level and hopefully we can land something there. But it doesn’t hurt to ask. When you go through this, ask and thou shall receive sometimes. We want to try to go big, and if we can’t get the big thing done, we’ll try to go mid-level so we can get through this.”

Brown went on to note that with Luis Garcia and Justin Verlander both on the mend, bringing in a potential deadline acquisition to further bolster the rotation would allow the Astros to work from a six-man rotation “at times” down the stretch. With Garcia returning from Tommy John surgery, Verlander already having gone through a pair of IL stints in 2024, and breakout righty Ronel Blanco likely to reach a new career-high in innings pitched before the end of the month, there’s good reason for the ’Stros to target a six-man group down the stretch.

That six-man group would include Blanco, Verlander, Garcia, Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and a potential deadline pickup. Rookie right-handers Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss would presumably remain on hand as a depth options if needed (although speculatively speaking, either could be a secondary piece in a trade to bring in a more established starter).

The trade market is hardly teeming with “go big” types of starting pitchers, though White Sox ace Garrett Crochet stands as one obviously available name in that regard. Brown and his staff could certainly try to pry Crochet loose from Chicago or make an even longer-shot bid for Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, but Skubal isn’t expected to change hands and the Astros’ farm system isn’t all that well regarded. That’s not a surprise for a team that typically picks near the back of the draft due to strong finishes in the standings and forfeited a pick to sign Josh Hader — but it’s a notable roadblock to getting a “big” deal across the finish line.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the Astros simply don’t have the young talent to pull off a trade for a starting pitcher of note. Outfielder Jacob Melton is widely considered to be among the game’s 100 best prospects, ranking 67th at MLB.com and 68th at Baseball America. He’s ranked 78th at FanGraphs, where the aforementioned Bloss lands in the No. 100 spot on their own leaguewide prospect rankings. Bloss and other young big leaguers like Arrighetti and outfielder/first baseman Joey Loperfido could also hold appeal to other teams. Righty A.J. Blubaugh has pitched well in Triple-A for much of the season. Prospects like outfielder Zach Cole and third baseman Zach Dezenzo are both in Double-A and could be big league options by next year. The Astros organization may not be bursting with elite prospects, but there are some interesting names knocking on the door of the majors.

The Astros are a typically high-payroll club, which also enables them to provide some benefit to potential sellers in the form of taking on guaranteed salary. They’re already sitting on a record-high payroll and are just a few hundred thousand dollars from crossing into the second tier of luxury penalization, per RosterResource. However, they’re also a first-year payor right now after spending the ’23 season under the tax line, and as such, they’d only be jumping from a 20% overage tax to a 32% tax in crossing that line. If the Astros were to tack on another $20MM of luxury obligations, they’d be on the cusp of the third tier, at which point their top pick in the 2025 draft would be pushed back 10 spots, but that’s quite a ways from reality at the moment.

Moreover, it doesn’t sound as though it’ll be a Crochet/Skubal type or bust. “If we can get a mid-level guy and we get Garcia and Verlander back,” said Brown later in that same radio appearance, “that would be massive to this club.”

Astros starters are tied for 16th in the majors with a 4.20 ERA, though that number includes some strong early-season work from righty Cristian Javier, who won’t be back in 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Fellow righty Jose Urquidy was also lost for the season due to UCL surgery, while righty J.P. France had shoulder surgery last month. It’s not clear right now when or whether Lance McCullers Jr. will return this season after a setback in his recovery from flexor surgery.

Brown struggled immensely early in the season but has turned things around since incorporating a sinker into his repertoire (2.55 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate in 81 1/3 innings). Blanco, who tossed the season’s first no-hitter back on April 1, has been the Astros’ rock in 2024, logging a 2.75 ERA in 114 1/3 innings. Valdez and Verlander have pitched well when healthy but both have been on the IL this season.

Houston sat a whopping 10 games out of first place as recently as June 18, but closed that gap emphatically with a 19-7 run in its past 26 games — including taking two of three against the now formerly division-leading Mariners just this weekend. The Astros and Mariners are now tied for the top spot in the AL West.

AL Notes: Soroka, Harvey, McCullers, Pederson

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Michael Soroka only three pitches in today’s outing before leaving with what the White Sox announced as right shoulder soreness.  More will be known once Soroka undergoes testing, though shoulder inflammation brought an early end to both his 2022 and 2023 seasons, and he had other shoulder issues in his first two Major League seasons in 2018-19.  Beyond these shoulder problems, Soroka missed almost the entirety of the 2020-22 seasons due to a pair of torn Achilles tendons, but he returned to the Show to pitch 32 1/3 innings of 6.40 ERA ball with the Braves last year.

Atlanta then shipped Soroka and four other players to Chicago in the Aaron Bummer trade last November, and Soroka’s first season with the Sox has been a struggle, as he has a 5.25 ERA over 72 innings and he lost his rotation job in May.  Soroka’s 3.49 ERA as a reliever is a big step up from his 6.39 ERA as a starter, though this latest shoulder injury could bring another unwelcome wrinkle to his career.  It could also impact Chicago’s trade deadline plans, as an impending free agent like Soroka is an obvious trade candidate, and a healthy multi-inning reliever would appeal to several teams.

More from around the American League as we head into the All-Star break…

  • The Royals started their deadline moves with a bang on Saturday, acquiring Hunter Harvey from the Nationals for third base prospect Cayden Wallace and Kansas City’s Competitive Balance Round A pick in this year’s draft.  (Washington used the 39th overall pick on Cal catcher Caleb Lomavita.)  “What we came to realize is if you’re going to acquire a quality relief pitcher with years of control, it’s not going to be a comfortable trade to make.  You’re going to have to give up something to get something,” Royals general manager J.J. Picollo told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters.  K.C. was known to be looking for bullpen help, and Harvey brings “great depth” to the relief corps, though Picollo said the team was “happy with” James McArthur’s work as closer.  “The depth was the focus for us and having more options at the back end of the game,” Picollo said.
  • Astros GM Dana Brown provided an update on Lance McCullers Jr. during a pregame radio appearance today (hat tip to Chandler Rome of The Athletic).  McCullers’ rehab from flexor surgery was halted earlier this week due to some soreness in his right arm, and Brown said “we just have to let time heal and we can’t push him.”  A return by September to work as a reliever is a possibility, Brown said, which is itself notable since McCullers has started 127 of his 130 career big league games.  A variety of injuries have cost McCullers the entirety of both the 2019 and 2023 seasons, and limited him to 265 innings over the 2020-22 campaigns.  The exact nature of McCullers’ latest issue isn’t known, but Brown somewhat ominously said that the righty had gotten “his second opinion” about the setback.
  • The Blue Jays were known to be pushing to sign Joc Pederson last winter, before Pederson landed with the Diamondbacks on a one-year deal worth $12.5MM in guaranteed money.  Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith recently spoke with Pederson about his offseason talks with Toronto, and Pederson said he had a FaceTime conversation with GM Ross Atkins and manager John Schneider that seemed to go well, though negotiations didn’t progress much further.  “They just I guess didn’t want me as bad as some other teams and weren’t able to really put together an offer when it was time for me to make a decision….From the conversations we had on the phone and how interested they were in adding a left-handed bat, their actions didn’t match their words, I guess you could say,” Pederson said.  “They said everything went really well and then didn’t want to offer what other teams did.”  The veteran slugger didn’t have any displeasure with how things worked out, and even left the door open to potentially play for the Jays in the future.  Pederson is having an excellent season as a righty-mashing DH in Arizona, hitting .273/.374/.498 with 13 homers over 277 plate appearances with the D’Backs.

Astros Notes: Garcia, Verlander, Tucker

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The Astros are pulling back a bit on right-hander Luis Garcia’s rehab process after he didn’t rebound well follow his most recent start in the minors, manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) on Friday. Kawahara went on to note that Espada emphasized that Garcia had not suffered a setback, although plans for the righty to throw a bullpen has been delayed and there’s no timetable for him to make his next rehab start.

It’s a frustrating turn of events for Houston, as the club’s rotation has been beleaguered by injuries all season. Right-handers Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy and J.P. France are all done for the year after undergoing season-ending surgeries last month, and of the three starters on the IL expected to return this year Garcia appears to be the closest. This latest delay figures to leave the Astros to make the best out of a patchwork rotation featuring Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown, Jake Bloss, and Spencer Arrighetti. Aside from Valdez, only Brown entered the 2024 season with more than a handful of starts at the big league level on his resume and only Blanco has posted an ERA better than league average.

Of course, the return of Garcia would be a welcome one even if the Astros rotation was in better shape. After all, the 27-year-old righty sports a career 3.61 ERA and 3.79 FIP in parts of four seasons in the majors. Garcia had solidly worked his way into the middle of Houston’s rotation prior to the Tommy John surgery that wiped out most of his 2023 campaign, and he figures to pitch key innings for Houston in the second half so long as he can return to action healthy and effective sometime after the All-Star break.

The Astros got more positive injury news regarding the status of right-hander Justin Verlander, who’s been on the IL with a neck issue for the past month. The future Hall of Famer returned to the mound today, however, and while he was initially scheduled for a light bullpen session of just 10 to 15 pitches, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports that he threw a 25-pitch session that included all of his pitches without any issues. That’s a major step forward for the right-hander, and while it’s unclear when the veteran will return to the majors Chandler Rome of The Athletic relayed that he’s expecting to throw another bullpen during the All-Star break.

Injuries have limited Verlander to just ten starts so far this year, and he’s struggled (at least by his own lofty standards) when healthy enough to take the mound with a 3.95 ERA that’s more or less in line with league average and a worrying 4.99 FIP. While his 21.3% strikeout rate and his 7.1% walk rate are both more or less in line with the numbers he posted last year, Verlander’s career-worst 24.8% groundball rate and elevated 9% barrel rate are both cause for concern, and his fastball’s velocity is down half a tick from last year.

Looking toward the positional side of things, outfielder Kyle Tucker provided an update to reporters (including McTaggart) about the shin contusion that’s sidelined him for six weeks now. Tucker told reporters that he’s advanced to throwing on the field and is hoping to return “sometime at the beginning of the second half,” though he didn’t put a specific timetable on his return and cautioned that he’s still feeling some discomfort in his leg.

While the Astros have surged in Tucker’s absence with an excellent 23-11 record since he was placed on the shelf, the club is surely eager to add another star bat back into the lineup alongside Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. Tucker caught fire early in the season prior to his injury and headed to the injured list with a scorching .266/.395/.584 slash line in 60 games despite a lackluster .245 BABIP. If he can contribute anything even close to that upon his return later this summer, it would be a massive boost to the club as they work to catch a division-leading Mariners club that they trail by just one game entering play today.

Astros Sign Aledmys Diaz To Minor League Deal

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The Astros have signed veteran utility bat Aledmys Diaz to a minor league deal, per a team announcement. Diaz is set to report to the club’s complex in Florida rather than immediately be assigned to a minor league club.

The news is something of a homecoming for Diaz, as he was a key piece in the Astros’ bench mix between the club’s acquisition of him from the Blue Jays during the 2018-19 offseason until he elected free agency following the 2022 season. In his four years with the club, Diaz hit a solid .255/.313/.425 (102 wRC+) while splitting time between all four infield spots as well as the outfield corners. After winning the World Series with Houston in 2022, Diaz hit the open market and signed on with the A’s in a two-year guarantee for a club that has given out multi-year deals in free agency increasingly sparingly throughout their rebuild.

That contract did not go as anyone had hoped. Diaz took a major step back as a semi-regular player in Oakland last year, slashing just .229/.280/.337 with a wRC+ of 72 in 109 games, his most in a season since his time with the Blue Jays half a decade earlier. While his versatility still offered some value for the A’s, the power stroke he flashed in Houston that allowed him to slug 12 homers in 327 trips to the plate during the 2022 season evaporated upon his arrival in Oakland as he slugged just three homers in 2023.

That step back in the power department didn’t leave much hope for the 32-year-old to turn things around and once again become a slightly above average bat with the A’s this year, and his performance in 2024 proved to be nothing short of disastrous. Diaz missed the first two months of the season due to groin and calf issues this year and, upon being activated, appeared in just 12 games for Oakland. In that time, Diaz recorded just three hits (all singles) and walked only once across 30 trips to the plate. That paltry .103/.133/.103 slash line was good for a wRC+ of -31 and led the A’s to release him last week, ending his tenure in Oakland three months early.

For the Astros, the return of Diaz represents a possible depth option for the club’s bench in the event of a rash of injuries. Mauricio Dubon has largely stepped into the role Diaz previously filled on the Houston bench quite admirably, with a .279/.308/.404 slash line and a 97 wRC+ in 744 trips to the plate over the past two seasons. While Dubon has clearly established himself as the club’s preferred utility infielder and it’s even likely that 40-man infielders Jacob Amaya and David Hensley are also above Diaz on the club’s hierarchy, the deal still offers Diaz the opportunity to attempt to work through his struggles in a familiar organization and re-establish himself as a worthwhile depth option for big league clubs headed into free agency this winter.

Astros Notes: McCullers, Bloss, Verlander

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Lance McCullers Jr.’s return from last year’s flexor surgery hit a snag. Manager Joe Espada told reporters this afternoon the team was pausing the righty’s throwing program after he experienced arm soreness coming out of his recent bullpen sessions (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). The team didn’t provide much detail, as Espada noted only that McCullers won’t throw for a few days “until we sit back down and reevaluate how we’re going to move forward.”

It’s possible this is merely a minor setback and McCullers will be able to resume throwing in the coming days. Still, any mention of arm soreness is going to raise alarm with the pitcher’s injury history. McCullers lost the 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery the previous November. He returned and stayed healthy for most of the 2020-21 campaigns, but he battled forearm discomfort during the ’21 postseason.

McCullers was out into August ’22. He returned to make 11 starts down the stretch and into the playoffs before suffering another arm injury while ramping up during the 2022-23 offseason. That eventually necessitated surgery. McCullers hasn’t pitched in a game since starting Game 3 of the 2022 World Series.

That kind of extended layoff makes it difficult for the Astros to bank too heavily on McCullers contributing down the stretch. Yet the team has pointed to returns from Luis Garcia and McCullers as possible stabilizers for a rotation that is barely hanging on. Garcia is on a rehab stint as he works back from last May’s Tommy John procedure. He could be back around the start of August. Even if all goes well with Garcia, the rotation depth remains perhaps the team’s biggest question.

Houston is operating with four starting pitchers at the moment. Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti are the only healthy starters on the 40-man roster. They should get a fifth arm back this week. Espada suggested that Jake Bloss is likely to return from the 15-day injured list to start on Thursday against the Marlins (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Bloss suffered a shoulder injury during his MLB debut on June 21 and has been shelved for around three weeks.

Getting Bloss back nominally completes the rotation, but the club can’t feel great about relying on a pair of rookies for the final two spots. Arrighetti has had an inconsistent debut campaign and is sitting on a 5.96 ERA across 16 starts. The Astros just drafted Bloss in the third round last summer. He has made two starts above Double-A. Blanco, who has had a fantastic year after securing the fifth starter job in Spring Training, had never topped 88 innings in any minor league or MLB season before this one. He’s up to 103 frames with a 2.53 ERA after firing seven innings of two-run ball tonight.

Blanco’s emergence and Hunter Brown’s midseason turnaround have helped key the Astros’ recent push back into contention for the AL West. They’ll need more sources of reliable innings down the stretch, which will likely come through some combination of injury returnees and trade. Beyond Garcia and McCullers, Justin Verlander has been out since mid-June with neck discomfort. The future Hall of Famer suggested on Tuesday that he’s still unsure precisely when he’ll be ready for game action (link via Kawahara). Unsurprisingly, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote recently that Houston is looking to add at least one starting pitcher from outside the organization before the July 30 deadline.

Astros Seeking Rotation Help, First Base Upgrade

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The Astros’ recent hot streak has positioned Houston as a clear buyer heading into the July 30 trade deadline. At 46-44 (including 13-4 over their past 17 games), they’re two games back of the division-leading Mariners and 3.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. Among their deadline targets, per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, are at least one starting pitcher and an extra bat — ideally a first baseman. Heyman calls D-backs first baseman Christian Walker the Astros’ preferred target, though it’s not yet clear whether Arizona will sell any veterans heading into the deadline.

The 33-year-old Walker would be one of the most impactful bats on the market — if the Diamondbacks ultimately end up selling. That’s far from certain right now. Arizona is all but buried in the NL West, where the Dodgers hold a commanding 7.5-game lead over the second-place Padres and a 10-game lead over the D-backs themselves. The Snakes, however, are only two and a half games behind the Padres for the final National League Wild Card spot. They’re three and a half games back of the Cardinals, who hold the second Wild Card spot at the moment.

If the Diamondbacks were to fall out of the race, it stands to reason that Walker would at least be available. The slugging, slick-fielding first baseman is a clear qualifying offer candidate, so Arizona wouldn’t necessarily be obligated to move him, as Walker could net them a draft pick if he turns down a QO and signs elsewhere. But Walker is hitting .265/.337/.507 with 22 homers this season and carries a stout .253/.332/.491 slash with 91 homers in 1721 plate appearances dating back to Opening Day 2022. He’s won a Gold Glove in each of the past two seasons as well. That type of plus offense and defense would make him one of the most in-demand players on the summer trade market.

That’s especially true for an Astros club that has gotten virtually nothing out of its first basemen this season. Houston already released Jose Abreu midway through a three-year, $58.5MM contract — a move that underscores the team’s urgency to turn things around. Jon Singleton has batted just .243/.339/.366 in 233 plate appearances while playing poor defense. Houston’s need for an alternative option is clear, and the team is clearly reluctant to give outfield prospect Joey Loperfido any time at first base (at least in the majors).

As for the team’s rotation, that’s been an area of need for much of the season — though help could be on the horizon. The ’Stros lost both Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy to UCL surgery earlier this summer. JP France had shoulder surgery recently. They’ve seen both Justin Verlander (twice, including currently) and Framber Valdez require trips to the injured list. The only healthy starters on Houston’s roster at the moment are Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and rookie Spencer Arrighetti. Swingman Shawn Dubin made a start against the Twins recently but was hit hard.

The Astros are hoping to have Verlander back sooner than later, however, and righty Luis Garcia is on a rehab assignment right now as he finishes up his rehab from last May’s Tommy John procedure. Lance McCullers Jr. could join the staff in the season’s second half as well. Still, Houston starters rank 21st in MLB with a 4.37 ERA, and that includes some solid work out of Javier before his UCL injury.

Even if the Astros are planning to get some combination of Verlander, Garcia and McCullers back for the stretch run, it’s possible injuries and workload concerns further impact the situation. Blanco didn’t pitch in 2020, pitched just 45 innings in 2021, 51 innings in 2022 and 125 1/3 frames last year. He’s already at 96 innings pitched. Arrighetti is within 40 innings of the 124 2/3 frames he tossed a year ago. McCullers hasn’t pitched since 2022. Garcia tossed only 27 innings last year before surgery.

There’s good sense to Houston adding some depth and stability, even if it’s not necessarily a top-tier arm who’d slot into a theoretical playoff rotation. Doing so would lessen the reliance on currently injured arms in the season’s second half and safeguard against further injuries.

One factor to consider in any Astros trade scenarios is one of salary. General manager Dana Brown said early in the 2023-24 offseason that he didn’t expect to have much financial flexibility. Houston still spent over the winter, most notably on Josh Hader’s $95MM contract, but that only further raises the question of how much flexibility the team has this summer.

Per RosterResource, Houston is right at the $257MM threshold for the second tier of luxury tax penalization. There’s no major penalty for crossing into tier two — just a hike in the tax rate itself — and it’s unlikely the Astros would add another $20MM and push themselves up to the third tier of penalty (where their top pick in the ’25 draft would be pushed back 10 places). But Houston has only paid the luxury tax twice under owner Jim Crane, and the team has never trotted out a higher payroll than its current 2024 outlay. Time will tell how much Crane is willing to add, but it’s doubtful Brown and his group will be given a proverbial blank check when shopping this month.

Astros Notes: Alvarez, Altuve, Tucker

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Star Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez departing today’s loss against the Twins after getting struck in the leg by a pitch. Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) after the game that Alvarez is “feeling sore” as he nurses the issue, which has been termed a right knee contusion, but that the club has not sent the 27-year-old for any testing.

Alvarez himself spoke to reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) after the game as well, telling them through an interpreter that he was hit on the same spot on his knee a couple of weeks ago and that the inflammation from that previous incident had not yet fully gone away when he was struck this afternoon. Alvarez acknowledged he was in “a lot of pain” following the game but suggested that he and the club would see how he feels tomorrow before making any decisions regarding his status.

It’s the second consecutive day the Astros have lost a key player to a hit by pitch, as star second baseman Jose Altuve was removed from yesterday’s game after getting struck in the wrist by a pitch. Altuve wasn’t in the club’s lineup for today’s game, but Kawahara notes that x-rays on the veteran’s wrist came back negative and that the star expected not to miss much time due to the issue. That may still be the case even after he was absent from today’s lineup, as Espada told reporters (including Kawahara) today that Altuve was available off the bench to pinch hit if necessary today, although youngster Grae Kessinger was the one who ultimately replaced Alvarez at DH.

The fact that Altuve, who has slashed an excellent .310/.360/.466 (136 wRC+) across 86 games this year in his 14th year suiting up for the Astros in the majors, is seemingly poised to avoid the IL is surely a relief for fans in Houston as the club attempts to chase down the Mariners in the AL West. Unfortunately, Alvarez may be even more important to the club’s offense. The slugger has hit at his typical elite level this year, slashing .300/.383/.548 with a 158 wRC+ that ranks ninth in the majors across 371 trips to the plate. For an Astros club that has gotten less offensive output than expected from key pieces like Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz, and Chas McCormick, the offense both Alvarez and Altuve provide in the lineup is all the more important, and even a brief absence for either player would be troubling.

While two of the club’s star hitters are dealing with injury issues, a third is making progress toward a return from the IL. Espada also told reporters (including McTaggart) today that outfielder Kyle Tucker did some jogging yesterday as he works his way back from a shin contusion that’s kept him on the injured list for the past month. Espada added that Tucker has also been playing catch and has resumed hitting off a pitching machine. Tucker isn’t expected to return to the club until after the All Star break at this point, but the fact that he’s begun doing some light running and basic drills is an encouraging step forward for a player Houston figures to rely on heavily in the second half.

Prior to being placed on the shelf last month, the 27-year-old was in the midst of a career year, even compared to the standards set by his All-Star campaigns in 2022 and ’23. In 60 games this season prior to going on the shelf, Tucker slashed an incredible .266/.395/.584 with a 174 wRC+. While Tucker’s surprisingly low .245 BABIP holds his overall line down slightly, the outfielder was walking (17.6%) more than he struck out (15.6%) and had slugged 19 homers in just 262 trips to the plate prior to his injury. If he can post numbers in a similar vicinity upon his return to action, Tucker will add another key cog to the club’s lineup and surely help shoulder the load that Alvarez and Altuve have taken on in his absence.

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