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Blue Jays, Red Sox To Meet With Juan Soto, Scott Boras

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7:54pm: There is currently no meeting scheduled between Soto and the Giants, tweets Jayson Stark of the Athletic.

11:10 am: The list of known teams who have upcoming meetings with Juan Soto and agent Scott Boras continues to grow. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that both the Blue Jays and Red Sox are set to meet with Soto and his representative this week. They’ll join Mets and Yankees in that regard. Passan adds that the Jays are “serious about adding a star” to the lineup alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Soto unsurprisingly tops their wishlist.

Similarly, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman paints the Jays as a legitimate contender in the Soto bidding. Toronto was famously willing to put forth the same offer that the Dodgers did to lure Shohei Ohtani to Los Angeles last winter, and Heyman adds that the Jays tried to trade for Soto last winter as well before the Yankees ultimately acquired him from the Padres. Both reports peg Toronto as a motivated buyer on the heels of a disastrous 2024 season that saw them finish in the AL East cellar.

From a payroll vantage point, the Jays should have a clear path to making a compelling offer. Jose Berrios and Yariel Rodriguez are the only players the Blue Jays have signed beyond the 2026 season — the latter never earning more than $8MM annually. RosterResource projects Toronto’s 2025 payroll at around $197MM at the moment — a good ways shy of last year’s franchise-record $225MM Opening Day mark. That projected number could drop even further with several non-tender/trade candidates still on the roster (e.g. Dillon Tate, Erik Swanson, Jordan Romano, Zach Pop). By 2026, the Blue Jays have under $75MM in guarantees on the books.

Toronto, of course, hopes to extend the aforementioned Guerrero and would need a massive offer to do so, but a long-term payroll ledger with Soto and Guerrero seems plenty doable given the lack of other commitments. Shortstop Bo Bichette could be another extension candidate, but he’s a tough case for a long-term deal after an injury-shortened season that included career-worst production at the plate. At the very least, it’s easy to see how the Blue Jays could make an aggressive push and competitive bid for Soto, as they did with Ohtani.

That’s generally true of the Red Sox as well, though their short-term books aren’t quite so clean. Rafael Devers, Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela are the only players signed truly long-term in Boston, but the Red Sox will still be paying Masataka Yoshida and Trevor Story notable salaries through the 2027 season at least. That said, the Sox have a much smaller arbitration class and don’t have the specter of a superstar’s potential departure hanging over them, as the Jays do with Guerrero. They’re projected for a payroll around $136MM in 2025 (again, via RosterResource) — modest relative to their franchise-record spending levels.

That said, the Red Sox have curbed spending in recent seasons. They did open the 2022 season with a $206MM payroll but have otherwise spent in the $170-180MM range since 2020. Back in 2018, when they last won a World Series, the Sox opened the season at $233MM. They followed with a $236MM in 2019 (both figures via Cot’s). Signing Soto would require a willingness to return to those 2018-19 levels — if not exceed them — but there are some signals the organization is willing to do just that.

Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has been vocal about his intention of “deliver[ing] the team that’s capable of winning the AL East and making a deep playoff run,” adding that the Sox need to be willing to be big players in the free agent and trade markets in order to do so. Skeptics will call back to chairman Tom Werner’s regrettable and oft-mocked “full throttle” comments from an offseason ago, but Breslow has taken a more direct and repeated stance on his intent to be active in both markets.

The Sox have multiple areas they’ll need to target, however, as Breslow has also voiced his intent to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. (They’ve also been linked to Max Fried, further lending credence to the idea that they’re willing to spend this winter.) Soto won’t accomplish that specific goal, nor will he help to balance out a heavily left-handed lineup (another of Breslow’s stated objectives), but that’s of little consequence. Free agents as young and impactful as Soto only come around every few decades; adding him to the lineup is an endeavor unique unto itself, and the rest of a team’s given goals can take a backseat to such a rare pursuit.

Marlins To Hire Pedro Guerrero As Hitting Coach

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The Marlins have hired Pedro Guerrero as their new hitting coach, according to The Athletic’s Katie Woo and Andrew Baggarly.  Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase reported earlier tonight that Guerrero and the Marlins were nearing a deal, and Baggarly reported last week that Guerrero was interviewing with Miami about an unspecified position on their coaching staff.

Guerrero comes to the Marlins after three seasons as an assistant hitting coach with the Giants.  Notably, the first two seasons of Guerrero’s tenure in San Francisco continued his association with Gabe Kapler, who was then the Giants’ manager and is now Miami’s assistant general manager.  Before coming to the Giants, Guerrero was also an assistant hitting coach with the Phillies from 2018-21, overlapping Kapler’s time as Philadelphia’s manager during the 2018 and 2019 seasons.

Miami has basically nowhere to go but up when it comes to hitting, as the 62-100 team naturally ranked near the bottom of the league in most major batting categories.  Former hitting coach John Mabry and assistant hitting coaches Bill Mueller and Jason Hart can’t be entirely blamed for the lack of production, of course, as the Marlins’ rebuild left the roster increasingly gutted of big-league caliber talent as the season developed.  That said, the Fish also didn’t even hit much when they reached the playoffs in 2023, as Miami ranked 26th in the league in runs scored but benefited from an exceptional 33-14 record in one-run games.

Now that Clayton McCullough has been installed as the Marlins’ new manager, Guerrero is the first member of what will be an entirely new set of coaches.  Miami underwent an internal overhaul after the season that saw the club fire not only the whole incumbent coaching staff, but also everyone from the training staffers to clubhouse attendants.  This leaves the Marlins with plenty of positions to fill in the coming weeks and months, and with McCullough now in place as manager, hirings figure to begin quickly.

As for the Giants, they’ve now lost two members of their three-person staff of hitting instructors, between Guerrero’s departure and Justin Viele leaving to become the Rangers’ new hitting coach.  Woo and Baggarly write that the Giants will install just one new hitting coach instead of two, and that sole new hire will team with the returning Pat Burrell as the hitting-coach tandem.

Giants Expected To Scale Back Payroll

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The Giants expect to reduce player payroll relative to this past season, writes Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. The extent of the pullback isn’t clear, though the club’s 2024 spending was roughly $20MM higher than it had been in ’23.

That’s mostly a reflection of the late-offseason free agent pickups of Jorge Soler, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculated San Francisco’s Opening Day payroll this year in the $208MM range. They started the ’23 season with roughly $188MM in spending, Cot’s measured.

The Giants’ competitive balance tax number jumped north of the $237MM base threshold. They’ll pay the luxury tax for the first time in six years. The payment itself should be modest. Cot’s estimates the Giants went around $14MM over the threshold. They’re taxed at a 20% rate on the overage, so they should pay around $2.8MM. (MLB hasn’t released the official CBT calculations to this point.)

While a sub-$3MM tax bill is a drop in the bucket for a team that spent over $200MM on salaries, it comes with ancillary penalties. The Giants would be taxed at a higher rate if they surpass the CBT next season — starting at 30% for the first $20MM in overages with higher penalties beyond that. Luxury tax payors are also subject to bigger penalties for signing a free agent who had declined a qualifying offer from another team. The Giants would surrender $1MM from their international amateur bonus pool and their second- and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft to add a qualified free agent.

That’s relevant in a winter when the Giants are expected to play for some marquee players. They’re long shots compared to the New York teams in the Juan Soto bidding, but they’re among the best on-paper fits for Willy Adames and Pete Alonso. President of baseball operations Buster Posey is on record about wanting to add a shortstop. Adames is easily the top option at the position. First base isn’t as clear-cut a weakness — especially with top prospect Bryce Eldridge moving quickly through the minors — but Alonso would bring a lot more power than LaMonte Wade Jr. A run at a top-end starting pitcher like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried also isn’t out of the question.

At least one top-of-the-market pursuit should be doable even if ownership wants a notable payroll cut. Some of the spending reduction has already happened. The Giants shed Soler’s salaries at the deadline. Snell and Michael Conforto hit free agency (though they still owe Snell a $17MM signing bonus that’ll be paid in January 2026).

San Francisco has $109.5MM in guaranteed contracts for eight players: Chapman, Robbie Ray, Jung Hoo Lee, Taylor Rogers, Jordan Hicks, Logan Webb, Tom Murphy and Wilmer Flores. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects their four-man arbitration class of Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade, Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval to account for roughly $25MM. Rounding out the roster with players on league minimum salaries would push them into the $146MM range. That’d leave them a little more than $60MM shy of last year’s Opening Day payroll and roughly $40MM below their ’23 spending level.

Posey will surely want to reshape the roster after taking over baseball operations once the team fired Farhan Zaidi. All four of the Giants’ arb-eligible players are realistic trade candidates, though they’d be selling low on Doval. A straight non-tender of Yastrzemski isn’t out of the question. San Francisco could welcome a chance to get out from under a portion of Taylor Rogers’ $12MM salary. (They unsuccessfully tried to dump Rogers’ entire contract via waivers in August.) Posey and his staff should have a fair amount of leeway even if they’re not going to run another $200MM+ payroll.

That doesn’t negate the heightened QO penalties. Reluctance about surrendering multiple draft choices for Adames is a potential reason that the Giants are among the early suitors for Ha-Seong Kim, the next-best shortstop available. Snell, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Jurickson Profar, Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler O’Neill and Gleyber Torres are among the top free agents who did not receive qualifying offers. Soto, Burnes, Fried, Adames, Alonso and Christian Walker are among this year’s 13 QO recipients.

Giants, Sergio Alcantara Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Giants are in agreement with infielder Sergio Alcántara on a minor league deal, reports Francys Romero (X link). The Quality Control Sports client gets an invitation to big league camp.

Alcántara has appeared with four teams at the major league level. He hasn’t played in the big leagues since 2022. The switch-hitting infielder split the ’24 campaign between the Triple-A affiliates of the Pirates and Diamondbacks. His .271/.388/.416 slash is solid on the surface, though that was mostly concentrated in a hitter’s paradise in Reno. Alcántara has played the role of light-hitting utilityman in his MLB career. He’s a .209/.281/.343 hitter over 502 big league plate appearances.

While Alcántara doesn’t provide much at the plate, he has bounced around on the strength of his glove. He has more than 6000 innings of shortstop experience in the minors. Alcátara has upwards of 1000 professional frames at both second and third base. The Giants are likely to add a starting shortstop this winter to push Tyler Fitzgerald to second base. Most of San Francisco’s utility players are stretched at shortstop, so Alcántara is a sensible depth target who’ll likely open the season in Triple-A.

Giants, Blue Jays Showing Interest In Ha-Seong Kim

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Ha-Seong Kim is finding interest in free agency’s opening days. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that the Giants have identified him as an early target. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that the Blue Jays are also showing interest as they evaluate infield possibilities.

While this is the first substantive tie between Kim and the Giants, that fit had been speculated long before he hit free agency. Giants skipper Bob Melvin managed the infielder for two seasons with the Padres. President of baseball operations Buster Posey has called shortstop a target area. Improving defensively seems like a particular priority, as landing a shortstop could allow San Francisco to slide Tyler Fitzgerald to second base.

Willy Adames is the top free agent shortstop. He could land a six- or seven-year contract. Kim seemed to be on track for four or five years as recently as a few months ago. A season-ending shoulder injury and postseason labrum surgery make it likelier he’ll take a short-term deal. The Padres opted not to issue a qualifying offer, which Kim would almost certainly have declined if he were healthy. San Diego president of baseball ops A.J. Preller has floated a nebulous timeline for the 29-year-old’s return, suggesting he could be out between May and July. Kim’s agent Scott Boras has indicated he could be available earlier in the season, potentially before the end of April.

Kim’s value is driven largely by his glove. He has proven to be a plus defender throughout the infield, at least when he’s at full strength. While some teams could be concerned about his arm in the immediate aftermath of a significant shoulder procedure, Kim had shown a sufficient arm before the surgery to play on the left side of the infield. He’s a roughly league average hitter, compensating for middling power with good contact skills and strong walk rates. Kim hit .233/.330/.370 with 11 homers and 22 stolen bases during his platform year.

He’s also a plus defender at second base, where the Jays would ostensibly target him. Nicholson-Smith reported last night that Toronto had also checked in on Gleyber Torres. Toronto has Bo Bichette returning at shortstop. Between second and third base, they have a handful of internal options who are light on MLB experience (e.g. Will Wagner, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, Ernie Clement). Toronto also used Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sporadically at the hot corner.

MLBTR predicted Kim for a one-year pillow contract valued around $12MM. His camp could try to secure a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out after next season, though it’s not clear if teams are willing to take that risk coming off the injury. The Padres have expressed interest in bringing him back, while the Braves and Mariners are speculative possibilities to pursue middle infield help.

Rays Among Teams To Have Reached Out To Soto

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The Rays are among the teams that have reached out to Juan Soto’s camp since the opening of free agency last week, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman lists a much less surprising additional six teams that have shown interest: the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox.

The mere mention of the Rays as a possible Soto suitor is going to be met with plenty of skepticism. It’d be a shock if they made a legitimate push for the market’s top free agent. The Rays have tried to land an elite free agent at least once before, as they reportedly made an offer in the $150MM range to Freddie Freeman before he signed with the Dodgers. That wasn’t too far off the price Freeman ultimately landed, but any offers to Soto would be in a different stratosphere. He should handily top $500MM and could secure a contract between $600MM and $700MM.

While it’s fair to assume the Rays themselves aren’t optimistic about their chances, this is illustrative that they have some money to at least dabble in the middle of free agency. The Rays opened this past season with a payroll around $98MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ve got a little less than $40MM in guaranteed commitments for next year (assuming Wander Franco remains on the restricted list and is not paid). Their arbitration class is projected around $25MM, though they could knock that to the $15MM range with a few non-tenders. Trades of Brandon Lowe or Yandy Díaz would subtract another $10.5MM or $10MM, respectively.

None of that is to say they should be perceived as a realistic threat to the big-market teams on Soto. They’ll probably be more active in free agency than many fans might expect given their general spending habits, though. Another mid-tier strike akin to the $40MM Zach Eflin deal from two offseasons ago could be on the table. Any free agent pursuits are complicated by their uncertain stadium situation after Tropicana Field was severely damaged by Hurricane Milton.

The other teams known to have some interest in Soto are all expected. The Yankees and Mets are widely perceived as the favorites. The Dodgers are at least tied to virtually every free agent of note. The news that Mookie Betts is likely moving back to the middle infield is going to fuel speculation about L.A. making a run at Soto. Giants baseball operations president Buster Posey has spoken about wanting to land a star. The Blue Jays were in the running for Shohei Ohtani last winter. The Red Sox have indicated they could be more active in free agency than they’ve been over the past few winters, although a splash in the rotation market seems much likelier than them landing Soto.

The New York Post reported last week that 11 teams had been in contact with Soto’s reps at the Boras Corporation on the first day of the offseason. That leaves at least four unknown clubs, though Heyman casts some doubt on the Nationals and Cubs as possibilities. Heyman suggests that Washington is unlikely to spend at the level necessary to bring Soto back. He writes that Chicago’s offseason plans are more geared towards pitching at the moment.

Soto’s free agency should carry for multiple weeks. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this afternoon that the four-time All-Star plans to have an in-person meeting with the ownership group of each team making a serious pursuit.

Willy Adames Reportedly Willing To Move Off Shortstop

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The best available free agent shortstop is Willy Adames but he could also expand his market by playing elsewhere. Per Will Sammon and Katie Woo of The Athletic, Adames wants to stay at short but would be willing to move to other positions for the right offer from a competitive club. On the Baseball Tonight podcast, Jorge Castillo of ESPN says the Mets have considered signing Adames and moving him to third while others have also considered second base (39:05 mark of this link at Apple Podcasts link).

Adames probably doesn’t need to make the shift based on his abilities, though he is coming off a bit of a down year in terms of his glovework. He was credited with 10 fielding errors in 2024, more than the seven he had in the previous two seasons combined. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a dismal grade of -16 for the year while Outs Above Average merely had him at par. However, DRS gave him a positive grade in each of the previous five seasons while Adames had a big +16 grade from OAA in 2023 and +10 the year prior.

Clubs could view that more as an outlier season, as opposed to Adames suddenly falling off a cliff defensively at the age of 28. Still, there’s logic to him being open to a position change. Any free agent is helped by having more suitors, as a more fervent bidding war can drive up prices, as opposed to a stagnant market that sees the player linger in free agency. Adames has no third base experience in the big leagues and only a small amount at second, but most shortstops are able to pivot elsewhere on the diamond without much issue. He has a .248/.322/.444 career batting line and hit .251/.331/.462 for a 119 wRC+ in 2024, offense that would play at any position.

There are plenty of clubs that already have shortstops but could perhaps use help at second or third, with the Mets being one of them. They have one of the best shortstops in the league in Francisco Lindor, who is under contract through 2031 and just wrapped up a strong season that might see him finish second to Shohei Ohtani in National League Most Valuable Player voting.

But second and third base are a bit more open. Jeff McNeil is arguably the best option for the keystone but his performance has wobbled in recent years and he’s also capable of playing other spots. At third, Mark Vientos just had a breakout season at the plate but with poor defense and it’s been suggested the club could look to move him to first base as a replacement for free agent Pete Alonso.

The Mets could take that approach with an existing third baseman like Alex Bregman, as he is a better hitter than Adames and already established at the position. But Adames is a couple of years younger and could secure a lesser contract just based on his track record. MLBTR recently projected Bregman for $182MM over seven years and Adames for $160MM over six seasons in our annual Top 50 Free Agents post.

For Adames, having a club like the Mets at the table can only help. They are one of the top spending clubs in the league but there would be no point in them getting involved if Adames was firmly committed to staying at short, so it’s sensible for him to express openness to moving. Clubs like the Yankees, Mariners, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Royals could also be classified as having greater needs at infield positions other than shortstop, so getting them to the table as well could further expand his market.

One of the more straightforward fits would be the Giants, with president of baseball operations Buster Posey frankly admitting yesterday that the club is on the lookout for shortstops. However, Adames has received a qualifying offer from the Brewers that he’s sure to reject, thus tying him to the associated penalties.

Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggests that Posey might try to avoid signing players that rejected qualifying offers so early in his tenure. The Giants just had a hamstrung draft a few months ago, as they gave up their second- and third-round picks to sign Blake Snell and Matt Chapman last offseason, both of whom had rejected qualifying offers. The Giants went on to pay the competitive balance tax in 2024, meaning that signing any QO’d players this time around would result in forfeiting their second- and fifth-best picks of the upcoming draft as well as $1MM of international bonus space.

The Giants are one of the most sensible on-paper fits for Adames as a club with a strong record of spending and a clear need at shortstop. If they were to pivot to the trade market or signing a player without a qualifying offer like Ha-Seong Kim, that would only further the importance of Adames staying open to other positions.

As for a return to Milwaukee, that never seemed especially likely since the Brewers almost never give out massive contracts like the one Adames will surely require. Looking at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that the Christian Yelich extension is the only time the club has surpassed $105MM on any deal. As if precedent wasn’t enough, owner Mark Attanasio basically confirmed it recently. “He’s going to get an enormous free-agent contract and I’m very happy for him and his family, and we’ll give it our best shot,” Attanasio said of Adames. “But there’s a lot deeper pockets out there. That’s just the reality.”

Adames recently reflected on those comments, per another column from Sammon and Woo. He seemingly left the door open for a hometown discount, though perhaps only slightly. “I’m willing to stay here for less money, let’s say, but I just want to be fair for what I deserve in my career and whatever I’ve done,” Adames said. “We just have to wait and see where we’re at. You never know what’s going to happen and you never know who is going to be willing to make that commitment with me for a long time.”

Giants, Logan Porter Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Giants and catcher Logan Porter have agreed to a minor league deal with an invite to major league spring training, according to Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 on X. The backstop is represented by Gaeta Sports Management.

Porter, 29, was briefly in the Giants’ organization last year. He started 2024 in the Royals organization on a minor league pact but was flipped to the Giants in June for cash considerations. After about a month of struggles, he opted out of that deal. He then briefly landed a spot on the Mets’ 40-man roster but was kept on optional assignment and later outrighted.

He has a sliver of major league experience, hitting .194/.324/.323 in 38 plate appearances for the Royals in 2023. He has produced some interesting minor league numbers, though not consistently. He split 2022 between Double-A and Triple-A, producing a robust combined slash line of .301/.442/.476, leading to a 145 wRC+. In 2023, despite getting called up to the majors, his minor league performance fell. He hit .232/.339/.377 in Triple-A for an 83 wRC+.

His 2024 started out strong, as he had a .319/.428/.575 batting line and 159 wRC+ through his first 138 Triple-A plate appearances. But his bat wilted as soon as he was traded away from the Royals, as he slashed .224/.318/.351 the rest of the way for a 74 wRC+ between the Triple-A affiliates of the Giants and Mets. Baseball Prospectus gives him solid grades for his minor league defense, so he can be a solid contributor at the times when the bat is producing.

The Giants have Patrick Bailey as their primary catcher but the backup spot is more open. They signed Tom Murphy to a two-year deal going into 2024 but a left knee sprain limited him to just 13 games this year. His current status is unclear but he told Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle in August that he was still in pain and seemed uncertain about the path ahead. Blake Sabol is also on the 40-man roster but he was mostly kept in the minors this year despite Murphy’s injury, so perhaps the club views him more as a depth piece.

Perhaps there’s a path there for Porter to get back to the big leagues, depending on how the offseason progresses for the Giants. If he makes it onto the roster, Porter has a full slate of options and just a handful of service days, meaning he can be cheaply retained well into the future.

Camilo Doval Drawing Trade Interest

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Giants right-hander Camilo Doval is drawing trade interest from multiple clubs, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle on X. The righty just crossed three years of service time in 2024, qualifying him for arbitration for the first time and putting him on pace for free agency after the 2027 season.

It was a down season for Doval but it’s understandable why clubs would still be interested, as it could be a chance to buy low on a guy with plenty of good results in previous years. Doval made 166 appearances for the Giants over the 2021-23 seasons, allowing 2.77 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 30.2% of batters faced, gave out walks to 9.6% of opponents and kept 53.4% of balls in play on the ground. He earned three saves in 2021 before taking over the closer’s role more permanently, earning 66 more saves over the next two seasons.

But as mentioned, 2024 was undeniably a rough patch for him. He struggled enough that the Giants optioned him to the minors for a couple of weeks in August to try to help him reset his head and get back on track. He ultimately finished the season with a 4.88 ERA in 59 innings pitched. His 60% ground ball rate and 28.8% strikeout rate were both strong but he gave out free passes at a huge 14.4% clip.

Ryan Walker took over the closing job in San Francisco as that was happening. Walker finished his 2024 with a 1.91 ERA, 32.1% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 46.9% ground ball rate. Given the strength of that performance, he probably has a firm grip on keeping the gig going into 2025.

If the Giants could get Doval back to his pre-2024 form, they could certainly have him in a setup role alongside Walker. It wouldn’t be ideal to trade him if this is a temporary low point and he eventually returns to form.

On the other hand, if they expect his performance to continue to slip, it would make sense to consider trades before his value drops even lower. Even dominant relievers can suddenly experience a sharp drop-off in performance, impacting trade value. David Bednar of the Pirates had his name in plenty of trade rumors while posting a 2.25 ERA over the 2021-2023 seasons but the Bucs didn’t pull the trigger on any offers. Now they might wish they had, with Bednar posting a 5.77 ERA in 2024.

It’s also possible that the shift in the Giants’ front office could impact how they view Doval. It sometimes happens where a new general manager or president of baseball operations has a different valuation of a player than the predecessor, meaning their availability changes. The Giants just replaced Farhan Zaidi with Buster Posey in the POBO role and perhaps the new regime will be less committed to Doval than the previous one.

As mentioned, Doval is just getting to arbitration for the first time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $4.6MM next year, with Doval eligible for two more passes through the arb system after that.

There would be plenty of surplus value there for the 2021-23 version of Doval. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the best relievers in the league have secured contracts that pay them $15-20MM annually and even solid setup guys can get eight-figure salaries. For any club with a plan for helping Doval put his 2024 behind him, his arb years would be a bargain, though that’s a bit uncertain at the moment with the way his most recent season played out.

Posey: Giants Pursuing Shortstops

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With the 2024 baseball season now complete and the offseason kicking off, the industry is currently buzzing at the general managers meetings in San Antonio. New Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey spoke with members of the media and said the club is looking for a shortstop, per Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle on X. Posey mentioned that Tyler Fitzgerald performed well in 2024 but can play other positions. Prospect Marco Luciano is seemingly ticketed for an outfield role for now, with the club hoping that can help him focus on taking a step forward at the plate.

It’s a bit surprising to see Posey be so frank in discussing a club need, as club executives are normally more cagy and vague in their statements, but it’s not a shock that he has identified this part of the roster as a target.

Brandon Crawford was a fixture at shortstop for the Giants from 2010 to through 2023, but his performance tailed off at the end of that stretch and the Giants didn’t bring him back for 2024. While Crawford got a bench job with the Cardinals this year, the Giants didn’t find an immediate replacement for him.

The aforementioned Fitzgerald got most of the playing time there this year and performed well at the plate. His 31.7% strikeout rate was on the high side but he hit 15 home runs in just 341 plate appearances, leading to a .280/.334/.497 batting line and 132 wRC+.

His defense was another story, however, as the advanced metrics weren’t keen on his work at short. Outs Above Average gave him a grade of -4 for his 594 innings at the spot while Defensive Runs Saved had him at -6. As Posey mentioned, Fitzgerald played other positions, spending some time in the outfield as well as at the three non-shortstop infield spots. Both OAA and DRS were more fond of his work at those other positions, so there’s logic in having him get bumped into a regular gig somewhere else or a super utility role.

As for Luciano, he has been considered a potential long-term solution at short for a while now but hasn’t cemented himself at the big league level. He has hit just .217/.286/.304 in the majors so far, in a small sample of just 126 plate appearances. His Triple-A performance hasn’t been great either, with a .243/.370/.386 line and 95 wRC+ at that level over the past two seasons.

His glovework has also been an issue and this isn’t the first time that the club has talked about moving him off shortstop. In September, manager Bob Melvin talked about Luciano getting more work at second base to finish the season, which was followed by then-president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi talking about Luciano getting some work in the outfield.

It seems the organization now plans to stick with that latter path. Luciano doesn’t yet have any official game action in the outfield, majors or minors, so there may be a learning curve for a while. But given how demanding the shortstop position can be, it’s possible that lining up on the grass could help him unlock his offensive potential at some point.

He hit well through the lower levels of the minors and up through Double-A, spending plenty of time on top prospect lists during that rise. Baseball America considered him the #12 prospect in the whole league as recently as 2021, giving him a 60 grade for his hitting and a 70 for his power on the 20-80 scouting scale. Getting Luciano back on track in the batter’s box is understandably a priority for the Giants, even if he won’t be in the shortstop position.

With the club viewing both Fitzgerald and Luciano as ticketed for other spots, pursuing an external shortstop candidate is a logical offseason goal. The free agent market has one clear top candidate in Willy Adames. There’s also Ha-Seong Kim, but he recently underwent shoulder surgery and has an uncertain return timeline. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller recently gave a vague “May, June, July” answer about Kim getting back on the field.

The Giants could sign Kim and then keep Fitzgerald at short until the shoulder issue is resolved, but signing Adames is a more straightforward solution. Playing for the Rays and Brewers, Adames already has 150 career home runs, a .248/.322/.444 batting line and 109 wRC+. He just finished a season wherein he stole 21 bases, hit 32 long balls and slashed .251/.331/.462 for a 119 wRC+.

Defensively, Adames has received strong reviews in his career but is coming off a down year. He was credited with 10 fielding errors in 2024, despite having only seven over 2022 and 2023 combined. His -16 DRS for the year was dreadful but he’s still at +4 in his career, even when factoring that in. OAA had him at exactly league average this year but had him at +16 in 2023 and +10 the year before that.

It would be odd for Adames to suddenly experience a steep drop in his fielding abilities at the age of 28, so perhaps clubs will view his 2024 glovework as an odd aberration. Either way, Adames is the clear top shortstop available and MLBTR recently predicted him for a six-year, $160MM contract as part of our annual Top 50 Free Agents post. All four contributors to that post predicted Adames would indeed sign with the Giants, which doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a slam dunk to happen. However, it does reflect that Adames and the Giants are a logical pairing, for the reasons laid out above.

The Giants have made more recent headlines for the top free agents they didn’t sign as opposed to the ones they did. They’ve been connected to big names like Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa and Bryce Harper in past offseasons and reportedly made some strong offers. Most notably, the club and Correa agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal two years ago, which would have solved their shortstop situation at that time. But the deal got scuttled by the medicals and Correa eventually signed with the Twins.

As such, the largest free agent contract the Giants have given out in the past five years was to Jung Hoo Lee. He got a $113MM guarantee over six years but was an exceptional case as he was coming over to North America at the young age of 25. Apart from that, in the same five-year window, the Giants haven’t given a free agent more than the four years they gave Jordan Hicks and haven’t given a guarantee larger than the $62MM to Blake Snell. The latter deal didn’t even play out in full as Snell opted out after one year.

But perhaps Posey has a goal of flipping that narrative. He recently spoke about getting the Giants back into the “memory-making business” and was reportedly instrumental in getting third baseman Matt Chapman to sign a six-year, $151MM extension, a fairly similar pact to the deal projected for Adames.

RosterResource projects the Giants for a payroll of $155MM next year, more than $50MM south of the 2024 spending. Assuming they are willing to run a similar payroll next year, there’s plenty of room to sign Adames and pursue other goals as well.

There’s also the trade market for Posey to explore, though it’s unclear if there’s a better option than Adames available. Bo Bichette of the Blue Jays has been in plenty of rumors but that club’s general manager Ross Atkins recently threw cold water on the possibility and Bichette is coming off the worst season of his career anyway. He missed time due to injury and hit just .225/.277/.322 for a wRC+ of 71, after hitting .299/.340/.487 for a 126 wRC+ in previous seasons. A deal now would be a big sell-low move for the Jays while the Giants would be taking a big gamble on a bounceback. Bichette is also just one year away from free agency and would only be a short-term solution, unless the Giants wanted to pursue a trade-and-extend path, though that would only add to the downside if Bichette can’t quite get back on track. Bichette also has mediocre defensive grades for his career, making it fair to wonder how much longer he can stick at short. Nico Hoerner was another theoretical trade possibility but he recently underwent flexor tendon surgery and has an uncertain path forward.

Posey is only just beginning his first offseason as a top front office executive, so perhaps he will take some time exploring his options before making a decision. But for now, he has shown some refreshing candor in laying out one clear priority for the winter ahead.

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