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Blue Jays Place Jordan Romano On 15-Day Injured List

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The Blue Jays announced that closer Jordan Romano has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his right elbow.  Left-hander Brendon Little was called up from Triple-A Buffalo to take Romano’s spot on the active roster.

This is the second time this season that Romano has been sidelined with elbow inflammation, as his first stint on the injured list delayed his 2024 debut until April 16.  The results in between those two IL stints have been very shaky, as Romano has a 6.59 ERA over 13 2/3 innings.  Romano’s 21% strikeout rate is far below the career 30.5K% he took into the season, and batters have been absolutely teeing off on Romano to the tune of a 50% hard-hit ball rate.  The right-hander has also allowed four homers over his small sample size of 13 1/3 frames, after giving up 10 homers total over 123 innings in 2022-23.

In short, Romano simply hasn’t looked right all season, whether that was due to any lingering elbow problems or more underlying issues.  Jays manager John Schneider told reporters (including Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi) that Romano’s MRI came back clean, so it doesn’t seem to be a case of any structural damage that could threaten Romano’s season.  It could be that this 15-day absence might be a bit of reset just to get Romano entirely healthy and mechanically fine, or the Blue Jays could keep him out for longer than 15 days just to fully ensure that Romano’s inflammation woes are behind him.

If the Jays can’t turn things around from their underwhelming 27-29 start, Romano (if healthy) is one of many names on the roster that could be speculative trade candidates come the deadline.  Romano has one remaining year of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency after the 2025 season, and this extra year of control could make him an attractive asset for teams in need of bullpen help.  Naturally that would require Romano to return to action relatively soon, and for him to display both good health and a form more akin to his 2020-23 form.

While Toronto’s struggling offense has taken most of the heat for the club’s 27-29 start, the relief corps has also been a major issue.  The Blue Jays’ 4.60 bullpen ERA ranks 26th of 30 teams, as Yimi Garcia has been the only consistently reliable option amidst the other set of struggling relievers, with Romano the face of these struggles given his status as closer.  Unsurprisingly, Schneider said that Garcia will probably get most of the save situations while Romano is out, with Chad Green also factoring into the closer mix now that Green is back from his own stint on the IL.

The One-Year Anniversary Of Yusei Kikuchi’s (New) Curveball

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Few pitchers have had an up-and-down career in the majors like Yusei Kikuchi. The former Seibu Lions star made the jump from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball in the 2018-19 offseason when he signed a four-year, $56MM contract with the Mariners. That deal contained a series of complicated options that allowed the Mariners to pick up an additional three years of control over Kikuchi — with that decision coming after year three of the contract — but also allowed the left-hander the opportunity to opt out if that three-year option was declined.

For much of Kikuchi’s time in Seattle, the four-year guarantee looked regrettable. Kikuchi made 32 starts in his rookie season but posted an ERA north of 5.00 with a lackluster 16.1% strikeout rate and velocity that didn’t line up with what he’d shown previously in Japan. The 2022 season brought some signs of encouragement, as the southpaw’s average fastball jumped by a hefty 2.5 mph (from 92.6 mph to 95.1 mph). Kikuchi saw a 50% increase in his strikeout rate, climbing from that ugly 16.1% mark to an above-average 24.2%. But his walk rate also jumped to nearly 11%, and he ultimately posted a second straight ERA north of 5.00.

Starting in early 2021, Kikuchi’s results took a turn for the better. He maintained the prior season’s velocity spike and strikeout gains but did so while improving his command. For a stretch of 11 starts in the middle of the 2021 season’s first half, Kikuchi was one of the most effective pitchers in baseball: 69 2/3 innings, 2.33 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate, 58% ground-ball rate. Kikuchi was a deserving first-time All-Star and was pitching so well at the season’s midway point that I wrote about how he’d suddenly begun to make the question of whether to exercise a quartet of $16.5MM options one worth pondering. The extra four years and $66MM would’ve brought Seattle’s total commitment to the left-hander to seven years and $109MM in total.

Kikuchi wound up making it an easy call for the Mariners — though not in the way he and the team hoped. From July 5 through season’s end in 2021, the pendulum swung in the completely opposite direction for him. He was rocked for a 6.22 ERA as his walk rate spiked back over 10% and he became problematically homer-prone. Hackneyed as the line may be, 2021 was a true tale of two seasons for Kikuchi. A dominant, All-Star-caliber first half followed by a catastrophic second half in which he had the seventh-worst ERA of any pitcher with at least 60 innings pitched.

The Mariners unsurprisingly opted not to pick up their four-year, $66MM option on Kikuchi. While it originally looked as though Kikuchi would exercise his $13MM player option, he surprised some onlookers by instead declining that guaranteed sum and heading back to the market. There were plenty of critics at the time of his decision, but his eventual three-year, $36MM deal with the Blue Jays proved that he’d come out ahead on the gambit.

Kikuchi’s time in Toronto has been similar to his run with the Mariners. A disappointing first campaign saw him lose his rotation spot at one point and finish out the year with a 5.19 ERA in 100 2/3 innings. Heading into 2023, he wasn’t even guaranteed a spot in the rotation. And through his first 11 starts of the season, Kikuchi was again performing his typical highwire act. His 4.47 ERA was passable, but the lefty was averaging a staggering 2.4 homers per nine frames and showing a diminished 21.5% strikeout rate.

On June 4, something interesting happened. Kikuchi threw a curveball. It’s an unremarkable statement in and of itself, but it was the first time Kikuchi had thrown a hook since his rookie season in Seattle. Scouting reports on Kikuchi when he was headed stateside for the first time praised his curve as one of his top pitches, in fact. But major league hitters absolutely teed off against the pitch in 2019, posting an outrageous .353/.371/.632 slash against the suddenly ineffective curveball.

Kikuchi scrapped the pitch entirely for the 2020-22 seasons and hadn’t thrown it through 11 starts in ’23. For the remainder of the season, just under 13% of Kikuchi’s pitches were curveballs, per Sports Info Solutions. This, however, wasn’t the same curveball he showed in that rookie season. Kikuchi’s 2019 hook averaged just over 75 mph, featuring a huge 63.7 inches of vertical break and 6.9 inches of horizontal break, per Statcast.

The new breaker is a harder, sharper curveball that sits 83 mph with 43.5 inches of vertical break and 4.4 inches of horizontal break. The esteemed Rob Friedman — aka Pitching Ninja — has highlighted the offering on several occasions since last June. Compare that to this video of Kikuchi’s old curveball, and you can see it’s an entirely different pitch. The new curve wasn’t a dominant pitch last year — opponents hit .277/.306/.447 in plate appearances ending with a curveball — but the change in repertoire seemingly helped keep hitters off balance and make his other pitches more effective.

The 2024 season has been another story. Kikuchi has fully embraced the new curveball by throwing it at a 28% clip, and batters have been almost wholly unable to do damage against the pitch. Opponents are hitting .258/.290/.318 in 69 plate appearances that have ended with a curve, and their only four extra-base hits have been doubles. Nearly 53% of batted curveballs against Kikuchi have been grounders. This has helped him tamp down his longstanding struggles against right-handed opponents, and Statcast lauds the curveball as a plus pitch, giving opponents an “expected” .221 batting average, .293 slugging percentage and .240 wOBA against the pitch.

The uptick in curveballs has led Kikuchi to use his slider and changeup at some of the lowest rates of his career. All three of his non-fastball pitches have flummoxed opponents this season. His heater is averaging a career-high 95.6 mph despite Kikuchi pitching in his age-33 season, but it remains hittable and has been his weakest pitches in terms of opponent results. However, the incorporation of an effective curveball also makes it harder for opponents to sit on the heater.

Through 11 starts this season, Kikuchi has posted a 3.25 ERA. He’s totaled 61 innings, fanned 24.1% of opponents against an outstanding 5.1% walk rate and kept the ball on the ground at a solid 44.1% clip. Kikuchi is still giving up a fair bit of hard contact (mostly on that heater) and will surely see his tiny 7.7% homer-to-flyball ratio trend tick upward. League average tends to be in the 12-13% range, and Kikuchi’s career mark is 17.4%. Even with a couple extra homers on his 2024 ledger, however, Kikuchi would look like a clearly above-average starter.

And it’s not just the 2024 season where he’s been effective with this new offering. It’s now been almost one year to the day since Kikuchi broke out the new curveball, and his numbers over the past calendar year could catch some onlookers by surprise. His 3.45 ERA ranks 12th among 78 qualified starting pitchers, and he’s 28th in total innings (172 1/3). By measure of FanGraphs’ version of WAR, which is calculated off his 3.09 FIP rather than his raw run-prevention numbers, Kikuchi has been baseball’s fifth-most valuable pitcher. RA9-WAR, which is simply based on the number of runs he’s allowed (rather than FIP) has Kikuchi tied for 18th.

Regardless of one’s preferred method of pitcher evaluation, Kikuchi has been one MLB’s 10 to 20 best starters over the past calendar year — a remarkable turnaround for someone who entered the 2023 campaign fighting for a rotation spot with the team whose rotation he’s now anchoring.

Kikuchi’s gains are all the more interesting in light of the Blue Jays’ disappointing 2024 campaign. Toronto currently sits at 26729 on the season, placing them last place in the hyper-competitive AL East. They’ve rattled off four straight wins but are still 11.5 games out of first place in the division and 4.5 games out of a Wild Card spot (with three teams standing between Toronto and the third spot, currently held by the Twins). The Blue Jays’ playoff odds are hardly shot, but they’ve undeniably diminished relative to their preseason projections. There’s already speculation about the potential of a sell-off, with names like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. the subject of particular wishcasting.

But if the Jays do end up selling, it’s Kikuchi — not Bichette, Guerrero, Chris Bassitt, etc. — who stands as Toronto’s likeliest trade commodity. He’s playing out the final season of that three-year, $36MM deal and earning what now looks like a highly reasonable $12MM salary. The majority of contending clubs should be able to absorb some or all of the remaining salary on his deal, although the Jays could always offer to pay it down in order to sweeten a return. Kikuchi has pitched himself into qualifying offer candidacy, so the Jays would likely need some real prospect value to come their way in order to make the trade, but so long as he continues pitching close to his pace over the past 365 days, that’d also be a reasonable ask.

Further, Kikuchi’s status as an impending free agent makes his past calendar year all the more intriguing. If he can make another 20 or so starts at this pace, he’ll hit the market on the back of an impressive run and be able to stake his claim as one of the better mid-tier starters on the market. He’s not going to elevate himself into the Corbin Burnes or Max Fried tiers of the upcoming free-agent market, but another lucrative three-year deal would be in play. Both Bassitt and Sonny Gray scored three-year pacts at annual rates higher than $20MM covering the same age-34 to age-36 seasons Kikuchi will be peddling.

Kikuchi has a ways to go before he’s squarely in that conversation, his turnaround over the past year has him heading in that direction. It’s worth pointing out that he lasted only three innings during his last start, showing reduced velocity and failing to record a strikeout. That could be a red flag, but it could also just be a blip on the radar. The Jays haven’t pointed to any kind of medical issue for Kikuchi. We don’t know if there’s an injury, illness, pitch tipping or simple fatigue at hand, or whether it was just off day for the lefty.

What we do know is that over the past year, very few pitchers have been more successful and more valuable than Kikuchi. Adding a new pitch isn’t always a ticket to greener pastures, but it certainly has been for Kikuchi, who’s shaping up to be a potential impact deadline arm and a much more appealing free agent than anyone could’ve reasonably expected a year ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Seven Veterans With Opt-Out Opportunities This Weekend

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As part of the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the Players Association agreed to a few automatic opt-out dates for some veteran players on minor league contracts. Article XX(B) free agents — generally, players with over six years of MLB service who finished the preceding season on a big league roster — who sign minor league contracts more than ten days before Opening Day receive three uniform chances to retest free agency if they’re not promoted.

The first comes five days before the start of the season. For players who pass on that initial opt-out, they have additional windows to explore the open market on both May 1 and June 1 if they’ve yet to secure a spot on the 40-man roster. There were 31 players who initially had that option in Spring Training.

Eleven of them — Carlos Carrasco, Garrett Cooper, Chase Anderson, Dominic Leone, Eddie Rosario, Jesse Winker, Kevin Pillar, Jesse Chavez, Brad Keller, Curt Casali and José Ureña — are currently on MLB rosters. Joely Rodríguez, Tyler Duffey, Matt Barnes and Drew Pomeranz made it to the big leagues but were subsequently removed from the 40-man roster; Barnes and Pomeranz are free agents.

Bryan Shaw, Matt Duffy and Carl Edwards Jr. are on new minor league deals after opting out in Spring Training. Six others — Elvis Andrus, Eduardo Escobar, Mike Moustakas, C.J. Cron, Jake Odorizzi and Kolten Wong — are free agents after being released.

That left seven players with opt-out chances on May 1. While none of them took that immediately, David Peralta opted out of his deal with the Cubs on May 13. He inked a minor league contract with the Padres a few days later and was added to the MLB roster on May 22. Let’s check in on the six remaining players who can retest free agency tomorrow — plus one player whose deal contains a contractual opt-out provision.

Marisnick has had a tough time staying healthy in 2024. The glove-first outfielder has only played in 12 games with the Angels’ top affiliate in Salt Lake. He hasn’t hit in a limited sample, going 5-32 with 14 strikeouts and one walk. Marinsick was out of action between mid-April and the second week of May. He appeared in seven contests before going back on the injured list on May 25. He’s probably best served staying with the Halos, who are without Mike Trout and leaning on Mickey Moniak as their primary center fielder. Moniak is hitting .175/.214/.250 over 126 plate appearances.

Votto’s homecoming has been held up by a Spring Training ankle injury. The former MVP has yet to play in a minor league game. There’s no reason to expect the Toronto native will opt out. Neither Justin Turner nor Daniel Vogelbach is hitting well for the Jays, so there could be an opportunity for Votto once he’s healthy. Vogelbach, as a left-handed hitting DH, is the most direct competition. He has a .167/.273/.292 slash and has only started 13 of the team’s 55 games.

Choi, a lefty-hitting first baseman, was on the injured list for his prior opt-out chance. He’s healthy now, returning to Triple-A Syracuse on May 14. Choi hasn’t gotten into any kind of rhythm offensively, though. The 33-year-old had a .189/.319/.378 slash before hitting the IL. He owns a .171/.268/.286 mark in the 10 games since his return. Choi isn’t hitting well enough to merit a major league opportunity, though he could look for a different minor league contract with Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez and Mark Vientos firmly above him on the first base/DH depth chart.

Greene pitched in six games for Triple-A Round Rock in April. He allowed 15 runs in eight innings and was placed on the injured list. The Express transferred the veteran righty to the full-season IL two weeks ago, ruling him out for the year.

Neither Fulmer nor Pérez has played this season. Fulmer will miss the entire year after undergoing elbow surgery last fall. His contract is a two-year deal; he almost certainly won’t opt out.

Pérez missed most of 2023 after undergoing a rotator cuff repair on his right shoulder. He played in seven games this spring but has spent the regular season on the minor league IL with an undisclosed injury. The Sox have gotten strong play from their catching tandem of Connor Wong and Reese McGuire. Perhaps Pérez feels there’s a better path to playing time if he signs a minor league deal with another team, but it seems likelier he’ll stick in the organization.

Kemp is not one of the aforementioned Article XX(b) players. He’s playing on a minor league deal that he signed in mid-April with the Twins. Darren Wolfson of SKOR North reported (on X) earliest this month that Kemp’s contract contains a June 1 opt-out date. The left-handed hitting second baseman/left fielder has struggled for Triple-A St. Paul, batting .193/.316/.325 with three homers across 98 plate appearances.

That’s mostly attributable to poor ball in play results. Kemp has shown his typically strong plate discipline, walking 13 times against 17 strikeouts. He has been plagued by a .206 average on balls in play. Kemp was briefly on the Orioles’ big league roster in April and has appeared in parts of nine MLB seasons overall. He hit .209/.303/.404 in 124 games with the A’s a season ago.

Blue Jays Designate Joel Kuhnel For Assignment

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The Blue Jays announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Ryan Burr. It was reported yesterday that they would be acquiring him from the Phillies for cash considerations. To get Burr onto the roster, the Jays placed right-hander Alek Manoah on the 15-day injured list with a right elbow sprain. To open a 40-man spot for Burr, righty Joel Kuhnel was designated for assignment.

Manoah was removed from Wednesday’s start with elbow discomfort. Scott Mitchell of TSN relayed on X earlier today that Manoah is going for a second opinion and likely to miss an extended period of time. Manager John Schneider informed reporters that the sprain is in Manoah’s ulnar collateral ligament and that the righty will meet Dr. Keith Meister on Thursday. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com was among those who relayed the info on X. Further details will undoubtedly be forthcoming on that, but the Jays will need a fifth starter behind José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi.

Matheson relayed on X today that righty Bowden Francis is with the club. He is currently on the injured list but has been rehabbing, most recently throwing 60 pitches 3 2/3 innings for Triple-A Buffalo on Tuesday. If added to the roster at some point in the coming days, he could make a start for the Jays or at least throwing multiple innings behind an opener.

For now, Manoah’s roster spot will go to Burr. He signed a minor league deal with the Phillies in the winter and has looked great so far in Triple-A this year. Through 16 2/3 innings, he has a 2.16 earned run average, 43.3% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate.

That has inspired the Jays to give the Phillies some cash to bring Burr aboard and they will now see if he can continue performing well at the major league level. He pitched 75 big league innings with the White Sox over the 2019-22 period with a 4.08 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate, 12.2% walk rate and 50.5% ground ball rate. He still has a couple of options and could perhaps be sent down to the minors when Francis is reinstated from the IL, though the Jays have some other optionable relievers as well.

To get Burr on the 40-man, the Jays are bumping off Kuhnel. The 29-year-old was just acquired from the Astros less than a month ago in a cash deal. He has since thrown 8 2/3 innings for Triple-A Buffalo with a 1.04 ERA. His 10.8% walk rate is high and his 2.7% strikeout rate incredibly low, but he’s managed to keep 56.3% of balls in play on the ground.

That has generally been Kuhnel’s recipe. In 85 2/3 major league innings, he has only struck out 19% of opponents but has gotten the ball pounded into the dirt at a 52.2% clip. The resulting 6.30 ERA isn’t pretty but that’s partially attributable to a .327 batting average on balls in play and 62.6% strand rate. Going back to the start of 2021, Kuhnel has a 4.28 ERA in 82 innings in the minors. He struck out just 15.7% of batters faced in that time but has generally kept about half of balls in play on the ground.

The Jays will have one week to trade Kuhnel or pass him through waivers. He still can be optioned for the rest of this year and could appeal to clubs looking for extra rotation depth. He has been outrighted previously in his career and would therefore have the right to reject another outright assignment in favor of free agency, if he passes through waivers unclaimed.

Alek Manoah Headed For Second Opinion, Likely Facing Lengthy Absence

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May 31: Manoah is headed for a second opinion on his elbow, reports TSN’s Scott Mitchell. His initial diagnosis isn’t yet known, but Mitchell adds that it’s expected Manoah will be sidelined for an “extended period of time.”

May 29: Alek Manoah left tonight’s start against the White Sox in the second inning. The team announced he experienced elbow discomfort. Manager John Schneider told the Toronto beat after the game that Manoah will get an MRI tomorrow (X link via MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson).

Manoah lost the first month of the season after battling shoulder discomfort during the spring. He was reinstated on May 5 and has taken the ball five times. The burly right-hander was out to an encouraging start to the season, working to a 3.70 ERA with 26 strikeouts and eight walks across 24 1/3 innings. Manoah wasn’t back to his Cy Young finalist form of 2022, but it was a substantial improvement over last year’s disappointing season.

There’s little to be done now beyond hoping that imaging doesn’t reveal any structural concerns. Manoah’s fastball sat in the typical 92-93 MPH range during the first inning. He didn’t top 90 MPH in the second inning until throwing Dominic Fletcher a 91.4 MPH sinker to start his at-bat. Manoah seemed to wince after releasing that pitch and departed the game following a mound visit (video provided on X by Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi). Trevor Richards came in for 3 1/3 scoreless innings of emergency relief to help Toronto to a 3-1 victory.

The Jays are working with limited rotation depth behind their front five of Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Manoah. Offseason signee Yariel Rodríguez has been on the injured list since April 30 with back inflammation. Bowden Francis, who opened the season in the rotation when Manoah was on the shelf, has been out for the last month with forearm tendinitis.

Rodríguez and Francis are each on rehab stints with Triple-A Buffalo. While both pitchers should be back before long, they’ve each got questions about their viability as starters. Rodríguez barely pitched in 2023 as he went through the process of applying for free agency. He pitched out of the bullpen in Japan two seasons ago. Francis was rocked in his first two MLB starts this year and quickly kicked to multi-inning relief, where he had more success last season.

Paolo Espino, who has a 4.81 ERA over eight starts with Buffalo, is the only other traditional starter on the 40-man roster. Toronto brought back old friend Aaron Sanchez on a minor league deal earlier this month, but he has given up 17 runs in 10 2/3 Triple-A innings. Beau Sulser, another recent non-roster acquisition, has surrendered 12 runs in 14 1/3 Triple-A innings in a swing role. Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is back on the minor league IL because of a nerve issue in his elbow.

If Manoah needs to go on the injured list, Espino seems the logical choice to hold the fort until Rodríguez is ready to return. Toronto’s rotation would look perilously thin in the event of any other injuries. While the Jays benefitted from remarkable rotation health last season,  they relied on Richards to kick off a few bullpen games last summer while Manoah was in the minors. Perhaps they’d look at that as another short-term solution, but starting pitching would likely be a deadline priority if the Jays are in the postseason picture in July.

Blue Jays To Acquire Ryan Burr From Phillies

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The Phillies are trading minor league reliever Ryan Burr to the Blue Jays, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (X link). The return isn’t clear, but trades of this nature tend to be for cash considerations.

Burr signed a minor league contract with Philadelphia in January. He was not on their 40-man roster and won’t need to immediately occupy a spot on the 40-man for the Jays (unless his contract contained some kind of upward mobility clause that spurred the trade). Burr has posted huge numbers for the Phils’ top farm team, so Toronto could decide to quickly call him up.

If Burr does get a look with the Jays, it’d be his first MLB work since 2022. The right-hander pitched in parts of four seasons with the White Sox between 2019-22. He had his best year in 2021, turning in a 2.45 ERA in a personal-high 36 2/3 innings. Chicago released him the following season after he suffered an injury in Triple-A. He pitched in the minors with the Rays last year, working to a 3.09 ERA over 23 1/3 innings. Tampa Bay never called him up, leading him to the Phils via minor league free agency.

He’s out to an even better start with Philadelphia’s affiliate. Burr has allowed only four runs in 16 2/3 innings. He has punched out 29 of 67 opposing hitters, a massive 43.3% clip, against a 7.5% walk rate. He has fanned nearly a third of his opponents in 40 Triple-A frames over the last two seasons.

Philadelphia’s bullpen has been around average at preventing runs, working to a 3.90 ERA that ranks 16th in MLB. They’re seventh in strikeout rate, fanning nearly a quarter of batters faced. Toronto’s relief group has been much shaker. They’re 27th with a 19.6% strikeout percentage and have allowed 4.77 earned runs per nine. Only the Rockies and Rangers have a higher bullpen ERA.

The Phils only have two relievers with minor league options: Orion Kerkering and Gregory Soto. Kerkering is one of their best relievers, while Soto’s a veteran with a power arm who is playing on a $5MM salary. Toronto has already optioned the struggling Erik Swanson and could send down one of Génesis Cabrera, Nate Pearson or Zach Pop if they want to give Burr a look against MLB hitters. Burr has a pair of options, so the Jays could shuttle him back and forth from Triple-A if they add him to the 40-man roster.

Rockies Reportedly Unlikely To Trade Ryan McMahon

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The Rockies have the second-worst record in the National League and will again head into deadline season without a chance to compete for a playoff spot. Colorado has been reluctant to move players in past summers even when they’ve looked to be clear deadline sellers.

It remains to be seen how general manager Bill Schmidt and his front office will approach the coming months, yet it doesn’t seem they’re keen on dealing their best position player. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweeted this morning that the Rockies are unlikely to make Ryan McMahon available. They’ll certainly get calls from other clubs inquiring about the possibility; Morosi reports that the Blue Jays are among the teams already showing interest in the veteran third baseman.

As part of a reader mailbag, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post also suggests he doesn’t anticipate the Rockies dealing McMahon. Saunders floats second baseman Brendan Rodgers and catchers Elias Díaz and Jacob Stallings as more realistic possibilities. The returns for any of those players would be minimal, though. Colorado could seek a much better prospect package for McMahon than they’d receive for any of Díaz, Stallings or Rodgers.

Of course, that’s a testament to McMahon’s talent and excellent start to the 2024 campaign. In 234 plate appearances, he’s hitting .286/.366/.483 with a team-leading 10 home runs. McMahon is on pace for personal-best marks in all three slash stats. He ranks in the top 10 among qualified hitters in hard contact rate, topping a 95 MPH exit velocity on a massive 55.2% of batted balls. McMahon is drawing walks at a lofty 11.5% rate and has cut his strikeout percentage by six points relative to last season. While he’s still punching out at a higher than average clip (25.6%), this level of swing-and-miss is more than reasonable for a player with his power and plate discipline.

Even after accounting for Coors Field, McMahon has been produced as a middle-of-the-order bat. His defensive grades in this season’s 467 innings are around average, but he’s been one of the sport’s best defensive third basemen over the course of his career. McMahon has been a solid regular since 2021 and is playing at an All-Star level this season.

That arguably makes this the best opportunity for the Rockies to move him. He’s amidst a career year at age 29. Colorado has no playoff hope this season; it’s hard to see a path to even fringe Wild Card contention next year. The Rox probably won’t have a meaningful postseason chance until his age-31 season at the earliest. It’s unlikely McMahon would be as valuable a trade candidate at that point as he is now. Even if he maintains this increased performance level, he’ll be deeper into the slightly backloaded six-year extension that he signed in Spring Training 2022.

McMahon is under contract for three and a half more seasons. He’s playing this season and next on $12MM salaries and will make $16MM annually in 2026-27. He could technically play his way into an opt-out opportunity, but that requires a top five finish in MVP balloting that seems unlikely even with his current production.

The extra three seasons make it unsurprising that the Rox don’t seem eager to deal McMahon, even if this summer could be a sell-high window. Colorado held onto Trevor Story and Jon Gray when they were impending free agents a couple seasons ago; they did the same with Brent Suter last summer. They’ve extended other potential trade candidates like Díaz, Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland in recent years. The Rockies have steadfastly resisted taking trades that they consider to be below a player’s value, even if it meant losing them in free agency not long after. That strategy generally hasn’t yielded good results, but the Rox could justifiably distinguish their past inactivity on rentals from holding onto a key player they have signed for another three years.

Díaz, Stallings and Rodgers would be much less significant subtractions. The veteran catching tandem has produced well, but they’re each impending free agents who are into their mid-30s. Rodgers is under arbitration control through 2025. The former #3 overall pick has never developed into the caliber of player that the Rockies anticipated. He’s hitting .266/.308/.342 with just one homer in 50 games this season; it’s not out of the question he’s simply non-tendered next winter.

As for the Jays, they’re a sensible suitor for offensive help even if the Rockies don’t want to move McMahon specifically. The Jays entered the season with questions at third and second base. Offseason pickup Isiah Kiner-Falefa has done a nice job at the hot corner, hitting .269/.315/.410 in 169 plate appearances. He’s capable of playing essentially anywhere, so the Jays could move him around the diamond if they added third base help. Using Kiner-Falefa more frequently at second base would push Davis Schneider more definitively to left field and allow the Jays to cut into the playing time of the struggling George Springer.

Toronto is in last place in the AL East at 25-29, but they’re not likely to pivot towards selling until it’s absolutely necessary. The Jays have a veteran-laden roster seeking a third consecutive playoff berth and their fourth trip in five years.

Blue Jays Option Erik Swanson

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Prior to yesterday’s game, the Blue Jays announced that they reinstated right-hander Chad Green from the injured list. In a corresponding move, fellow right-hander Erik Swanson was optioned to Triple-A Buffalo.

Swanson getting sent down is something that would have been hard to fathom just a few months ago. The righty made 57 appearances for the Mariners in 2022 and only allowed 1.68 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 34% of batters faced that year and only gave out walks at a 4.9% clip.

After that tremendous season, the Blue Jays traded outfielder Teoscar Hernández to the Mariners for Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko. Swanson largely carried over his excellent results into 2023, appearing in 69 games with a 2.97 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. That included plenty of late-game action, as Swanson earned 29 holds and four saves for the Jays last year, largely serving as the primary setup guy to closer Jordan Romano.

The expectation was that Swanson would continue in that role here in 2024 but that hasn’t been the case. Swanson and the Jays got a scare back in February when the pitcher’s son Toby was hit by a car and taken to a local hospital. Thankfully, Toby was eventually released but Swanson was away from the club for a while and dealt with some forearm tightness when he returned.

He started the season on the injured list but missed just the first two weeks, getting reinstated in mid-April. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to get into a good groove so far this season. He’s made 17 appearances, tossing 13 2/3 innings, but has allowed 14 earned runs on the year. His 6.1% walk rate is good but he’s only punched out 15.2% of batters faced and has already allowed five home runs, whereas he only allowed eight all of last year and just three the year prior.

It doesn’t appear as though the injury is creating lingering effects, as Swanson’s velocity isn’t significantly different. His fastball averaged 93.7 miles per hour last year with his splitter at 85.1. Those numbers are down this year but just barely, to 93.6 and 85.0.

Speculatively speaking, perhaps he’s tipping his pitches or hitters have figured out some other way to get a read on him. His chase rate was around 34% in each of the past two years but is down to just 22.8% this year. When he has thrown the ball in the zone, hitters made contact around 72% of the time in the previous two campaigns but that number is up to 84.4% this year. That combination of less chase and more contact in the zone tracks with the significant drop in his strikeout rate. Even when players have chased, they are making contact 71.4% of the time, a big jump from last year’s 55.9% clip. It’s not as though he’s been leaving more pitches over the plate, as his “meatball” rate at Statcast has actually fallen from last year’s 7% to 5.7% this year. However, opposing hitters are swinging at those meatballs 92.9% of the time, a massive increase over last year’s 74.3%.

For whatever reason, opposing hitters appear to be seeing the ball well out of Swanson’s hand, striking out less and barreling the ball up more. He had a barrel rate around 6% in each of the past two years but has more than doubled that this year to 15.4%. That’s been one piece of a larger bullpen slide for the Jays, as the relief corps has gone from a strength to a weakness since last year. The club’s bullpen had a 3.68 ERA last year, putting them in the top ten among MLB clubs. This year, their ERA is up to 4.92, which is better than just the Rangers and Rockies.

That’s not all on Swanson, of course, as pitchers like Romano and Tim Mayza have also seen their numbers trend in the wrong direction, but not to the same degree as Swanson’s. With Green coming off the IL, the Jays could have optioned younger pitchers like Zach Pop or Nate Pearson but the fact that they opted to give Swanson a breather speaks to how rough his season has gone so far.

The Jays will undoubtedly be hoping that a brief reset can get Swanson back on track, whether they can hang around the playoff race or not. The club is having a bit of a disappointing season to this point, with the bullpen struggles playing a role in that. They are currently 25-29, last place in the American League East and five games out of a Wild Card spot.

There’s already been speculation that the club could consider pivoting to a selloff prior to this summer’s deadline. Climbing in the standings would take that off the table but it will be hanging over the club in the months to come if they stay on the fringes of contention.

Swanson came into this season with four years and 96 days of major league service time, putting him 76 days shy of the five-year mark. He added another 61 days this year prior to getting optioned, leaving him 15 shy of crossing that mark.

Assuming he comes back at some point this year, he’ll have no problem crossing that threshold and staying on track for free agency after 2025. Though if his struggles continue down in the minors and he doesn’t earn his way back, he could end up shy of the line and have his free agency delayed by another year.

The Jays would surely love if that’s not a scenario they have to consider. If Swanson can quickly get back on track, he can return to being a key part of their bullpen for a playoff push. Or if he is succeeding while the club is faltering, he could be marketed to other clubs at the deadline with an extra year of control. But for now, he and the club will have to figure out a plan for putting this rough patch behind him.

Cubs Sign Jackson Tetreault To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs have signed right-hander Jackson Tetreault to a minor league deal, as noted by Talk Nats on X earlier today. Talk Nats adds that Tetreault had interest from multiple teams, including “advanced talks” with the Blue Jays, before ultimately settling in Chicago.

Tetreault, 28 in June, was a seventh-round pick by the Nationals back in 2017 and worked his way through the club’s minor league system to make his big league debut back in 2022. In four starts with the club that year, Tetreault struggled to a 5.14 ERA and 6.16 FIP in 21 innings of work before suffering a stress fracture in his shoulder that sidelined him for the remainder of the 2022 season. Tetreault was outrighted off the Nationals’ roster that November but remained with the organization for the 2023 season as he rehabbed the injury, ultimately making two appearances at the High-A level, though he struggled badly in the appearances with ten runs (eight earned) allowed over 5 2/3 combined innings as he allowed two walks and fourteen hits including three home runs against four strikeouts.

Those appearances in May of last year were Tetreault’s most recent professional outings, as he was placed on the injured list in June and has not pitched since. He elected free agency back in November but didn’t land a deal anywhere until today, when he signed with the Cubs on a minor league pact. Prior to his injury, Tetreault had the look of an intriguing potential back-end starter with the Nationals, pitching to a 4.34 ERA in 28 starts at the Double-A level and a 4.04 ERA in 14 appearances at Triple-A.

Given his extended layoff in recent years, it’s not clear how healthy Tetreault is or what role he may take up now that he’s signed with Chicago, although the club could surely benefit from upper-level pitching depth with key pieces of the club’s bullpen such as Julian Merryweather, Adbert Alzolay, and Yency Almonte all on the injured list in addition to rookie starter Jordan Wicks. Tetreault figures to act as that sort of non-roster, upper level depth alongside fellow minor league signings such as Julio Teheran, Edwin Escobar, and Carl Edwards Jr.

The Blue Jays May Have Some Tough Decisions To Make

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The Blue Jays are obviously not having the season they envisioned in 2024. The club played at a 90-win pace over the previous four years, making the playoffs in three of those seasons and falling just one game short in 2021. But here in 2024, they are 21-26, last in the East and ahead of just the Athletics, Angels and White Sox in the American League standings.

The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs currently give them a 17.9% of getting into the postseason, though the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are more bullish and still give the Jays a 30% shot. A sudden hot streak could certainly change those numbers in a hurry, but as the sand keeps falling through the hourglass, the club will have to think about how they handle a summer where they are unexpectedly out of contention.

Right-hander Kevin Gausman didn’t mince his words when assessing the situation yesterday, per Rob Longley of The Toronto Sun. “The reality is if we don’t play well, this team will not be together for much longer,” Gausman said. “It might make another year. It might make another year and a half. It might make a couple of months. That’s just the reality.”

There are various ways to play things when dealt a hand like that. Last year’s Cardinals, for instance, decided to only trade away impending free agents and keep the core intact for another shot at contention in 2024. They flipped impending free agents Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks and Paul DeJong to add some younger players to the system but kept most of the roster in place, then added to it by signing veterans like Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.

If the Jays were to take that path, their impending free agents are Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Yimi García, Daniel Vogelbach, Danny Jansen and Trevor Richards. Kikuchi had a 3.86 earned run average last year and is down to 2.64 this year, so he would certainly have interest. García is striking out 35.3% of batters faced this year and has a 0.47 ERA. Richards has a 2.91 ERA and 29.4% strikeout rate. Trading catchers is a bit tricky midseason because of the challenges of learning a new pitching staff, but Jansen hits enough that he could appeal to a club looking for a guy to serve as a designated hitter and occasional backup catcher. Kiermaier isn’t hitting much this year but could certainly make for a glove-first fourth outfielder on a contending club. Turner and Vogelbach aren’t having great years and would need to get hot to have some trade value.

Even with trading Kikuchi, the club could go into 2025 with a strong starting rotation to build around. Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Alek Manoah are still under contract or club control next year, as are Yariel Rodríguez, Bowden Francis, Ricky Tiedemann and Adam Macko.

The larger and more difficult questions for the Jays will involve looking deeper into the future. They have a large number of players who are set to be free agents after 2025, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette being the most notable, though the list also includes Bassitt, Jordan Romano, Chad Green, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Tim Mayza, Erik Swanson and Génesis Cabrera.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com recently explored the idea of Bichette and Guerrero being available and asked an anonymous executive about it. “I don’t think they’re opposed to it,” the executive said of the Jays. “They’ve talked to teams about it. The asks were ridiculous, but I think they’re going to try to retool a lot, and using those guys to get pieces may be the way to do it.”

There’s nothing necessarily surprising in that. Front office members discuss all kinds of trade scenarios that never come to fruition. Given where the Jays are in the standings, it’s logical that general manager Ross Atkins and his team would explore their options. And it’s also sensible that they would set a massive asking price with still over two months until the deadline.

Whether they pull the trigger on a deal for Guerrero or Bichette or both will depend on various factors. The club’s record here in 2024 would obviously be one factor, as would the organization’s perspective on their chances at another shot at contention in 2025. Naturally, the kinds of offers being put on the table will also be significant and it’s fair to wonder what kind of shape they would take right about now.

Bichette hit .299/.340/.487 in the past five seasons for a 127 wRC+ but is slashing just .226/.284/.327 here in 2024, which translates to a 77 wRC+. He has lowered his strikeout rate to 14.8%, which would be a career low by a significant margin, but he has just two home runs so far. His .257 batting average on balls in play is well below the .349 mark he carried into the year but he’s also not squaring the ball up like before. His 4.2% barrel rate this year is less than half his career clip of 9.4%. His exit velocity and hard hit rates still look comparable to previous years, so rival clubs would undoubtedly have interest in acquiring Bichette and getting a bounceback, but the Jays wouldn’t exactly be selling high if these kinds of numbers hold for the next few months.

Guerrero’s not in a hole like Bichette, as he’s slashing .279/.374/.385 for the year. He only has four home runs but is drawing walks at a 12.6% rate. His overall offensive production translates to a 123 wRC+. That’s nothing to sneeze at but it’s also not the elite production he showed back in 2021, when he hit 48 home runs and slashed .311/.401/.601, and it just barely cracks the top ten among qualified first basemen in the league this year. Given the gap between his ceiling and his current performance, perhaps the offers from other clubs won’t match up with what the Jays are expecting.

There’s also the public relations question of whether the club wants to send out the two players who have been the collective faces of the franchise since before they even made it to the major leagues. There are some players putting up intriguing numbers in Triple-A Buffalo this year, with each of Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes, Spencer Horwitz, Steward Berroa, Leo Jimenez, Will Robertson and Orelvis Martinez currently having a 112 wRC+ or higher in more than 100 plate appearances this year. Perhaps there’s an argument for opening up playing time for some of the guys in that group, but none of them have the same level of prospect pedigree nor the name recognition of Guerrero or Bichette, making it a questionable move from both a roster construction angle and a PR point of view.

Perhaps the Jays won’t get an offer that’s enticing enough to make them cross this threshold. Maybe they keep the gang together for another shot in 2025. Perhaps they go on a hot streak and make this all moot. After all, they are only 3.5 games back of a playoff spot at this moment.

But if they stay on the fringes of the race, they have some tricky decisions to make. Trading rentals would be the easy part if they stay behind the rest of the Wild Card pack. Whether to move on to guys with extra control will be a trickier decision. It would likely reduce the club’s chances in 2025 but could be their best path to restocking their farm system, depending on what kind of offers they get. With so many players set to hit free agency either this year or next, there would surely be some temptation to infuse the system with young and controllable talent at this year’s deadline, if the opportunity to do so is there.

They would also free up a bit of payroll space in the process. Bichette is making $11MM this year and will make $16.5MM next year. Guerrero is making $19.9MM this year and will be set for a raise via arbitration into the $25-30MM range next year. The Jays could then pivot to the free agent market, as they don’t have a massive amount on the long-term books. Only Gausman, Berríos, Rodríguez and George Springer are under contract past 2025. By 2027, Berríos is the only significant contract on the books. His deal only goes through 2028 and he can also opt out after 2026.

Taking all of that into account, it will be an important summer for the Blue Jays. In the months to come, the games on the field and the conversations taking place off of it will undoubtedly be playing a huge role in the future of the franchise.

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