Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Archives for December 2013

Explaining Non-Tenders And Tonight’s Deadline

By | at

The free agent market has shrunk over the past few weeks, with names ranging from Brian McCann to Brayan Pena coming off the board (MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker can be used to see all of the action to this point). However, the free agent class figures to grow substantially today, as 11:00pm CT marks the deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players.

That, of course, means that it is also the deadline for teams to non-tender players that they feel are set to become too expensive via the arbitration process. As MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth pointed out last night, John Axford is a prime example of a non-tender candidate. The former closer projects to earn roughly $5MM in 2014. The Cardinals could feel that's too steep a price to pay for a pitcher who won't close for their club, especially considering the wealth of relief options they have available.

A player's first trip through the arbitration process is usually fairly inexpensive (and the ones that are expensive are typically worth the price), but upon reaching arbitration for the second, third and fourth times, prices can begin to make teams uncomfortable. By non-tendering a player, the team is allowing him to become a free agent. It's certainly not unheard of for a player to be non-tendered and re-sign with his former club, however, as was the case with Jeff Karstens and Geovany Soto last year.

Players may also be non-tendered for injury concerns or due to the fact that a team simply feels it has a surplus at a position and doesn't want to commit a 40-man roster spot to a potentially superfluous player. Also, players who are not yet arbitration eligible can be non-tendered.

While many non-tendered players are borderline Major Leaguers that don't go on to have meaningful careers, there are others who provide large boosts to their new clubs. Nate Schierholtz and Manny Parra are two examples from last year's crop of non-tenders that thrived in new settings. Should a non-tendered player sign with a new team, that team secures control of his remaining arbitration seasons until free agency. For example, Schierholtz had four-plus years of service time last offseason and now has five years, 78 days, so the Cubs control him through arbitration this offseason before he accumulates six years of service time and hits the open market next winter.

The non-tender deadline also means that many players will simply avoid arbitration with their clubs today. We're still quite a ways from the deadline to do so, but several players have already avoided arb and a few more figure to see their 2014 contracts agreed upon and locked into place today.

Of course, we'll be keeping track of all the non-tender action here at MLBTR today. I'll be keeping track of non-tenders in a pair of posts (one for the American League, one for the National League), and you can follow along using MLBTR's Non-Tender Tracker as well. Also of use today could be MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker. First and foremost, though, is MLBTR's list of non-tender candidates, which includes most of the names to watch with regard to tonight's deadline.

Quick Hits: Tulowitzki, McKenry, Athletics

By | at

Three-team trades aren't easy to dream up, let alone to achieve, but ESPN's David Schoenfield has five of them to entertain you in what's been a quiet day at the hot stove. One idea has the Rockies shipping Troy Tulowitzki to the Pirates and Dexter Fowler to the Marlins and receiving top Pirates prospects Gregory Polanco and Alen Hanson, along with Marlins closer Steve Cishek and prospects Jake Marisnick and Justin Nicolino. The Marlins would also receive Pirates shortstop Jordy Mercer in the deal. It's a fun idea, although, as Schoenfield suggests, it's questionable whether the cost-conscious Pirates would be willing to take on Tulowitzki's enormous contract. Here's more from around baseball.

Tender Deadline Notes: Barton, Stewart, Nix, Kelly

By | at

Tomorrow at 10:59pm CT marks the deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Most arbitration-eligible players will be tendered, since players typically receive less in the arbitration system than they would be able to get in free agency. But a few dozen will likely be non-tendered, expanding the free-agent pool.

Clearly, that pool won't include any current stars. But it's likely a couple non-tenders will be contributors in 2014. Ben Nicholson-Smith of SportsNet.ca tweets a reminder that last year's crop of non-tenders included outfielder Nate Schierholtz, who ended up having a solid season with the Cubs, and reliever Brian Wilson. The list also included infielder Mark Reynolds, who landed a $6MM contract with the Indians, and Manny Parra, who posted a solid season out of the Reds' bullpen.

MLBTR will be updated with non-tender information throughout the day tomorrow. For more, you can check out MLBTR's list of non-tender candidates, as well as our arbitration tracker and list of tenders and non-tenders. The latter two resources will be updated as news rolls in. In the meantime, here are a couple notes on what to expect tomorrow.

  • One player who could be non-tendered is Daric Barton, who is the Athletics' longest-tenured player, as MLB.com's Jane Lee points out. Barton arrived in Oakland's 2004 trade of Mark Mulder. He never really became the high-OBP first baseman the A's were likely hoping he'd be, with only one strong full-time season (2010) to his credit, but the A's did get Dan Haren in that trade, so it turned out well for them anyway. Barton hit .269/.350/.375 in limited duty with the A's in 2013, spending most of the season at Triple-A Sacramento.
  • The Yankees could non-tender catcher Chris Stewart and infielder Jayson Nix, writes MLB.com's Bryan Hoch. The Yanks' signings of Brian McCann and Brendan Ryan don't bode well for Stewart or Nix, particularly given that GM Brian Cashman has said he will tender catcher Francisco Cervelli.
  • The Tigers' only non-tender candidate is utilityman Don Kelly, writes MLB.com's Jason Beck. Working in Kelly's favor are his low salary (MLBTR's projects he'll make $900K) and the fact that, even if they tender him a contract, the Tigers would be able to release him in spring training and pay only a fraction of his deal. It's currently unclear where Kelly will fit on the Tigers' roster next year. Kelly hit .222/.309/.343 in part-time duty for the Tigers last season.

Non-Tender Candidate: John Axford

By | at

AxfordThe deadline to tender contracts for arbitration-eligible players is tomorrow night at 10:59 CT. Most non-tenders will be afterthoughts on this offseason's free-agent market, but one potential non-tender who could make some noise is reliever John Axford.

The Cardinals acquired Axford from the Brewers at last August's waiver trade deadline for fellow pitcher Michael Blazek. Axford pitched very well down the stretch and through the Cards' World Series run, striking out 20 batters and walking seven in 16 innings for the Cardinals between the regular season and the postseason.

Still, the Cardinals are expected to non-tender him. One problem, of course, is his performance in 2012 and 2013 in Milwaukee, where he frequently struggled to throw strikes and ultimately lost his closer job to Francisco Rodriguez. The other is his arbitration situation. Axford rode his excellent 2010 and 2011 performances and his closer status to a $5MM salary in 2013, his first year of arbitration eligibility. If he were to be tendered, he would receive a raise on that salary (with the possibility of two more raises to come in 2015 and 2016, since Axford is a Super Two player). Anything over $5MM is a figure the Cardinals likely won't want to pay, given Axford's erratic history and their collection of young arms.

A non-tender, however, should create a terrific opportunity for Axford, who is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council. Axford is still just 30 (he'll be 31 in April), and while his control has at times deserted him, his mid-90s heat hasn't. That means Axford could be a sought-after free agent, even in an offseason featuring a long list of closer types that includes Joe Nathan, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Fernando Rodney, Brian Wilson and Edward Mujica, among others. While Axford likely wouldn't be a top candidate for a closer job, he might make a good setup man. If the Cardinals do let Axford go, he might well wind up with a two-year deal, a rarity among non-tendered players.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

By | at

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week scattered amongst the Thanksgiving leftovers, Black Friday shopping bags, and Cyber Monday ads:

Week In Review: 11/24/13 – 11/30/13

By | at

Here's a look back at this week at MLBTR:

AL Notes: Tigers, Royals, Bonifacio, Rays, Astros

By | at

If MLBTR had only been around in 1954. On this date 59 years ago, the Yankees and Orioles completed the largest trade in baseball history by naming the eight players to be named later in the 17-player deal. Two weeks prior, the Yankees received Don Larsen (yes, that Don Larsen) Billy Hunter, and Bob Turley from the Orioles in exchange for Harry Byrd, Jim McDonald, Willy Miranda, Hal Smith, Gus Triandos, and Gene Woodling. Let's take a look at what's simmering on the Hot Stove in today's American League:

  • The Tigers are one more bold move away from entering Spring Training with the "Best Team in Baseball" designation, writes Richard Justice of MLB.com. Signing Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Beltran, or Curtis Granderson would qualify as that bold move, in Justice's opinion.
  • Royals GM Dayton Moore tells the Kansas City Star's Bob Dutton his staff will convene Monday morning to determine the fate of their nine arbitration eligible players. "I don't look for us to do anything that is too surprising," said Moore. "We might not tender everybody, but we might. There are some things that we’re kind of working on." 
  • Also within Dutton's article, Royals officials acknowledge Emilio Bonifacio is drawing steady interest from other teams, so second baseman Chris Getz may be tendered as insurance against a deal involving the utilityman. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz predicts a $3.3MM arbitration award for Bonifacio and $1.3MM for Getz. 
  • The Rays are likely to tender each of their nine arbitration eligible players and then possibly flip one or more in a trade, reports Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune. David Price is the most obvious arbitration eligible trade candidate, but Mooney also lists outfielder Sam Fuld and lefty relievers Cesar Ramos and Wesley Wright as possible chips. If the Rays do tender all nine players, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz expects their arbitration salaries to total $26.6MM.
  • The Astros are already preparing for the 2014 amateur draft as they expect to interview several candidates for the first overall pick by the end of the year, according to the Houston Chronicle's Evan Drellich. The club's approach to the interview process and its slight variations based on whether the player is in high school or college is also detailed by Drellich.
  • On Thanksgving Day, MLBTR's Mark Polishuk examined the managers and GMs entering the final year of their contract. Today, Jim Margalus of SouthSideSox.com concludes the most front office stability can be found in the AL Central.  

NL Notes: Rockies, Flowers, Thatcher, Barney

By | at

The Dodgers have a thrown a wrench into the free agent outfield market by listening to trade offers for Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Carl Crawford, writes Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio in an Insider post (subscription required). Scott Boras is also a complicating factor, according to Bowden, because he represents the two top free agent outfielders Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo (#2 and #3, respectively, on MLBTR's 2014 Top 50 Free Agents list). Bowden theorizes the other top-tier free agent outfielders may wait to sign in order to see how Boras sets the market for Ellsbury and Choo. In today's news and notes from the National League:

  • Rockies owner Dick Monfort provided Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post with a detailed line-by-line budget for his franchise. Monfort explains how revenue from the new national TV contract is absorbed by payments on the club's MLB credit line, player raises, and projected revenue losses for not having home dates with the Yankees and Red Sox. Monfort estimates being able to reinvest only $4-5MM of the new TV money into the on-the-field product.    
  • Renck, via Sulia, agrees with the assessment of MLBTR's Tim Dierkes that the Ricky Nolasco contract resembles Edwin Jackson's. Renck believes the Rockies would have been paralyzed under their self-imposed budget constraints had they signed Nolasco, so their best option for a rotation upgrade is through a trade.
  • The Mets will have interest in catcher Tyler Flowers, if he is non-tendered by the White Sox, tweets the New York Post's Mike Puma. Mets executives have liked Flowers in the past and see him as a potential backup to Travis d'Arnaud. Flowers, however, told Scott Merkin of MLB.com "(t)here have been a couple of conversations" with the White Sox about reaching an agreement to avoid arbitration. "I put it at 51-49 in favor of staying because of the contractual conversation we've had before," Flowers said. "They've reached out to me to try to see where each other is at. If they didn't care at all, they would have done nothing and non-tendered me."
  • It would be a surprise if the Diamondbacks non-tender left-handed reliever Joe Thatcher because free agent bullpen arms aren't cheap, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. Thatcher struggled after Arizona acquired him from San Diego in the Ian Kennedy trade to the tune of a 6.75 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 5.8 BB/9, and 11.6 H/9 in 9 1/3 innings (22 appearances).  
  • The Cubs will likely tender second baseman Darwin Barney, despite a career-worst season at the plate (.208/.266/.303 in 501 plate appearances), because the only realistic in-house replacement is Luis Valbuena, reasons MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $2.1MM arbitration salary for Barney and $1.5MM for Valbuena, who is playing second base in the Venezuelan Winter League.
  • The Cardinals made the right move in signing Jhonny Peralta because they were able to upgrade a position of need while retaining their prized young arms, opines MLB.com's Richard Justice. 

Breaking Down The Twins’ Ricky Nolasco Signing

By | at

The Twins agreed to the largest free agent contract in franchise history last week, inking Ricky Nolasco to a four-year, $49MM deal with a fifth-year vesting option.  Nolasco, 31 in December, projects as the team's Opening Day starter in 2014.  What did the Twins get for their investment?

FanGraphs' standard wins above replacement metric is not a great one to use for Nolasco.  By FanGraphs WAR, Nolasco has been solid over the last three years, accumulating about 2.9 per year.  FanGraphs WAR, however, uses Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and Nolasco is notorious for posting an ERA above his FIP.  He's done so in every season since 2009.  In those five seasons, his ERA has been more than half a run higher than his FIP every time except for 2013.

The important questions for the Twins are why Nolasco's ERA has been consistently higher than his strikeout, walk, and home run rates suggest, and if that will remain the case over most of the next four years.  From 2009-13, the typical NL starter has stranded around 72% of his baserunners.  Nolasco's strand rate in that time is a bit shy of 68%, worst in MLB among those with at least 700 innings.  Perhaps that's unfair, as it's roping in some really low strand rates from 2009 and '11.  If we look at just 2012-13, Nolasco is at 70.1%, 16th worst in MLB among those with 300 innings.  Nolasco has a 4.08 ERA in that time, versus a 3.60 FIP.  A metric that treats Nolasco as a 3.60 ERA pitcher is overstating his value.

Nolasco's strand rate problems stem from his performance with men on base.  His strikeout rate falls below six per nine innings and his walks jump up to around three, even in his successful 2013 campaign.  If the Twins don't find a way to address this, they might have a 4.50 ERA pitcher on their hands from the start.  FanGraphs has another version of WAR called RA9-WAR, which essentially uses a pitcher's actual runs allowed instead of his FIP.  That metric suggests Nolasco was a two-win pitcher in 2013, his best season in years.  If Nolasco begins at two wins, this contract is not good value even if a win on the 2013-14 free agent market costs $6.2MM.  I'm not comfortable valuing a pitcher based on ERA or FIP, however.  The valuation changes drastically if we split the difference and project Nolasco as a 2.5 win pitcher in 2014.  In that case, I think this can be an even money deal, though I don't have a lot of confidence in predicting the annual inflation of the free agent market.

Nolasco's contract clearly resembles Edwin Jackson's four-year, $52MM deal from the Cubs last winter.  Jackson pitched the first year of his deal at age 29 as opposed to 31 for Nolasco.  While Jackson got about 6% more than Nolasco in guaranteed money, Nolasco's 2018 vesting option adds value even if he's a long shot to trigger it.  Another similarity is that the Cubs did not seem primed for contention in the first year of Jackson's deal, nor will the Twins be picked as division favorites for 2014.  Labeling certain teams non-contenders prior to the season often proves wrong, to be fair.  Nolasco must be viewed as a win-now signing for the Twins, since he'll likely provide the most return in the first few years of the deal.  A few weeks ago, Cubs president Theo Epstein said of the Jackson signing, "Given the situation, I think we could have been more patient."  The same may prove true of the Twins and Nolasco.

2013 was Nolasco's first season with a sub-4.00 ERA since '08, and the timing was excellent for the pitcher and agent Matt Sosnick.  The early July trade to the Dodgers was a big boost to Nolasco's value, removing the possibility of draft pick compensation and giving him a bigger spotlight.  For the Twins, the Nolasco contract has little upside, and represented the market price for mid-to-back rotation innings.

Red Sox To Tender Contract To Andrew Bailey

By | at

The Red Sox will tender a contract to Andrew Bailey, a source tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter). Sherman surmises the reliever can serve as insurance for the incumbent closer Koji Uehara and/or become a valuable trade chip this summer. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects that Bailey will earn $4.3MM through arbitraton, after earning $4.1MM during an injury-plagued 2013.

Bailey underwent shoulder surgery in July and is expected to miss the first half of the 2014 season making him a non-tender candidate. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal reports Bailey has made twice-weekly trips to Boston since the end of the season to work with Red Sox physicians and trainers and will begin his throwing program in January. The 29-year-old, however, refused to put a timetable on his rehab.

"I don't want to say I'm ahead of schedule, but things are going really well," Bailey told MacPherson.

Bailey saved eight games and pitched to a 3.77 ERA, 12.2 K/9, and 3.8 BB/9 in 28 2/3 innings (30 innings) before landing on the disabled list. Since being acquired by Boston two years ago, Bailey has struggled with thumb and shoulder injuries limiting his production to 14 saves in 49 appearances covering 44 innings. In his previous three seasons with Oakland, Bailey was the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year and a two-time All-Star with 75 saves in 157 appearances (174 innings). 

Edward Creech contributed to this post.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top