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Arbitration Eligibles: Oakland Athletics

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Athletics are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Anderson is the team's most interesting case.  After a 6.04 ERA in 44 2/3 innings, we are not projecting an arbitration raise for the 25-year-old southpaw, so we're going with his 2013 salary of $5.5MM.  His 2013 salary, however, was part of a four-year deal Anderson signed in 2010.  For 2014, the A's have the choice of an $8MM option or a $1.5MM buyout, and GM Billy Beane told reporters including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle it's likely the option will be exercised.  If the A's instead decline the option and pay the buyout plus our projected arbitration salary, they could save around a million dollars.  However, declining the 2014 option would nullify a 2015 option for $12MM (which also  has a $1.5MM buyout).  It appears, then, that the A's find it worth $1MM or so now to have the ability to retain Anderson for 2015 at $12MM.  That's curious for a guy who hasn't reached 100 innings since 2010 due to injuries, but perhaps the A's will end up trading Anderson this winter anyway.

Position players Lowrie, Moss, and Jaso are on solid ground for 2014.  Lowrie stayed healthy for a full season for the first time in his career, and enters his contract year looking for a repeat.  The A's could look into a team-friendly extension, if Lowrie prefers financial security over playing out 2014 and reaching free agency.  Even shielded against lefties, Moss smacked 30 home runs as the team's primary first baseman.  Also avoiding southpaws, Jaso did his job, ranking second in on-base percentage among all catchers with at least 200 plate appearances.  His season ended with a late July concussion, but he should be OK for 2014.

Reddick saw his power sapped by an April wrist injury, for which he is having offseason surgery.  The A's will retain him.  Smith's production slipped this year, and even against righties his slugging percentage slipped to .408.  He came up big in the division series with a home run against Anibal Sanchez, but at $4.3MM next year I think the A's will non-tender him.

Blevins and Chavez have modest salary projections and should be part of next year's bullpen.  Neshek's ERA was down to 2.10 at the end of June, after which point he posted a 6.75 ERA in 12 innings and was designated for assignment.  He remained in the organization and had his contract purchased in September, but seems likely to be non-tendered.  Rodriguez joined the A's from the Astros in the February Jed Lowrie deal, but needed Tommy John surgery in late March.  Though he's arbitration eligible as a Super Two, he doesn't project to make more than the league minimum, so the A's just have to decide if they want to use a 40-man roster spot on him.

The A's retained Barton through arbitration last offseason for $1.1MM, but designated him for assignment as spring training ended.  He was outrighted to Triple-A, found his way back to the Majors in May, and then was designated and outrighted again.  He came back in August and even made the postseason roster over Nate Freiman.  Barton posted another OBP over .400 in Triple-A this year, but I think the 28-year-old will be non-tendered this time.  Sizemore is also on the bubble after re-tearing his ACL a few games into the season.

Since the A's expect to pick up Anderson's option, we won't include him in our arbitration estimate.  If the A's tender contracts to Lowrie, Moss, Jaso, Reddick, Blevins, and Chavez, they're looking at an estimated $15.1MM for six arbitration eligible players. 

Samardzija Extension Appears Unlikely

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An extension between the Cubs and Opening Day starter Jeff Samardzija this offseason "looks like a long shot" according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Wittenmyer's sources indicate that a sizable financial gap exists between the two sides, and neither is confident that said gap can be closed this winter.

Samardzija, 28, completed his first 200-inning season in 2013, totaling a 4.31 ERA with 9.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 48.2 percent ground-ball rate. His ERA is surprising when considering his K/BB numbers and strong ground-ball rate, and indeed, sabermetric stats such as xFIP (3.45) and SIERA (3.60) feel that he had quite a bit of poor luck on his side.

Samardijza has transitioned from a solid setup man to a reliable rotation piece in recent years. He's racked up 388 1/3 innings in Chicago's rotation since Opening Day 2012 and figures to hold down a spot in their 2014 rotation as well, barring a trade.

The Cubs were willing to listen on Samardzija this July, with the Diamondbacks among the most frequently rumored teams to have interest. However, in the end, it was reported that the Cubs never got close to dealing the Notre Dame product and planned to discuss a long-term deal this offseason.

As shown in MLBTR's Extension Tracker, recent extensions for starting pitchers with between four and five years of service time include Matt Harrison (five years, $55MM), John Danks (five years, $65MM), Justin Verlander (five years, $80MM) and Felix Hernandez (five years, $78MM). Five years would seem is likely the target for agents Mark Rodgers and Sam Samardzija (Jeff's brother).

This is my own speculation, but the Danks contract may be the Samardzija camp's floor, as the 3.99 ERA compiled by Danks over his 383 1/3 innings prior to the extension is similar to the 4.10 mark that Samardzija owns over his past 388 frames. While Danks had a slight edge in ERA and control, Samardzija has Danks dwarfed in strikeouts, has a more impressive ground-ball rate and is considered a better pitcher in sabermetric circles.

Wittenmyer spoke with Samardzija's close friend and former teammate Ryan Dempster about the situation, with Dempster noting that Samardzija's strongest desire is to win with the Cubs. Wittenmyer points out that Samardzija has said all along that money isn't the biggest issue for him, but he also cautions that doesn't mean Cubs fans should expect a hometown discount. Samardzija has shown a willingness to go year-to-year at this point, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz expects a healthy raise on Samardzija's modest $2.64MM salary this offseason, projecting him to earn $4.9MM after the arbitration dust has settled.

Wittenmyer feels that barring an extension this offseason, Samardzija is certain to be dealt next July, if not this winter. The Cubs control Samardzija through the 2015 season, so dealing him with more than one year of team control left would maximize his trade value.

Arbitration Eligibles: Texas Rangers

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Rangers are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Feliz had Tommy John surgery in August 2012, and was activated from the DL in September this year.  He's expected to remain in the bullpen in 2014, and could ascend back to the closer role at some point.  His salary remains low for now.  Ogando's role is undecided for 2014, but injury issues could relegate him to the bullpen again.  Cotts was an incredible story, and should again be an asset in the Rangers' pen as he enters his contract year at age 34.  Cotts hasn't earned much in the game and seemed close to retirement at one point, so it's possible the Rangers could tack on a year at a modest salary.

Moreland, 28, is a tough tender decision.  With a .232/.299/.437 line in 518 plate appearances, plus a DL stint for a hamstring injury, he didn't have the breakout year in 2013 for which the Rangers had hoped.  Jose Dariel Abreu is off the market, but the team could look at free agents like Kendrys Morales, James Loney, Corey Hart, and even Mike Napoli for first base.  If they make an acquisition prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline, a trade or non-tender of Moreland will become more likely.  Gentry had an excellent season in limited duty, and will have a role in next year's outfield.

Rosales bounced around between the A's and Rangers multiple times this year, and will probably lose his 40-man roster spot again.  Blackley was removed from the Astros' 40-man roster in August, but was acquired by the Rangers and had his contract purchased.  He's likely to be non-tendered as well.

Moreland is an unknown at this point, but if the Rangers tender contracts to him, Feliz, Ogando, Cotts, and Gentry, they're looking at an estimated $10.3MM for five arbitration eligible players.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers' offseason focus is finding a first baseman and figuring out how to keep the heart of their lineup healthy after injuries forced 125 different lineups in 2013.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Contract Options

Free Agents

With 2014 payroll obligations already in the neighborhood of $80MM (not including salaries for pre-arbitration eligible players), the Brewers have to be frugal in free agency and may not be interested in taking on much salary in any proposed trade. But, if he could, GM Doug Melvin would spend lavishly to keep his marquee players healthy. The injury bug struck early. Corey Hart underwent right knee surgery in January and was expected to return in May, but he injured his other knee during rehab requiring a third knee surgery in 16 months. The rest of the first base depth chart was wiped out during Spring Training: Mat Gamel re-tore his right ACL missing his second consecutive season, and Taylor Green was sidelined by hip surgery. The Brewers wound up using seven first basemen in 2013, none of whom had ever started a MLB game there. As expected, first base was an offensive sinkhole for the Brewers with a slash line of .211/.256/.359 and a MLB-worst .629 OPS. 

The Brewers need to find a solution at first base. Hart, who earned $10MM this past season, has said he will take a pay cut to remain in Milwaukee (MLBTR's Steve Adams estimates the hometown discount will be $6MM for one year). Melvin says Hart will be in the mix, but what's Plan B if he doesn't return? Juan Francisco's power intrigues the Brewers, but he struck out 95 times in 270 plate appearances while displaying a horrific split against left-handers (.156/.206/.219 with no home runs). The Brewers have altered Francisco's batting stance, which he will continue to experiment with during winter ball. A platoon would be optimal, but the available free agents are either too expensive (Mike Napoli), a defensive liability better suited to DH (Kendrys Morales, Mark Reynolds, Mike Morse), or not a clear upgrade over the pre-arbitration eligible Sean Halton (i.e. the other right-handed first base bats on MLBTR's 2014 Free Agents list). A trade is unlikely with Hunter Morris, their seventh-best prospect per MLB.com, waiting in the wings with a service clock which has yet to begin ticking. Morris did regress at Triple-A after a banner season at Double-A in 2012 and was not among the team's September call-ups, but the Brewers are notoriously patient with their young players. Another option is to give catcher Jonathan Lucroy more playing time at first, which would provide additional at-bats for his backup Martin Maldonado, who struggled offensively in 2013. Manager Ron Roenicke attributed Maldonado's fall off to a lack of playing time and intends to give him 50-60 ABs during Spring Training with the hopes of a better start to 2014.  

Roenicke is also hoping for a better start to 2014 for Aramis Ramirez, who spent two separate one-month stints on the disabled list with a knee injury. The knee never healed fully, resulting in a dramatic offensive downturn: 12 HRs (the fewest in a decade), 49 RBIs (a career-worst as a starter), and 18 doubles (down from a NL-leading 50 in 2012). Not only did the injured knee sap Ramirez's power, it also limited his range in the field. With a salary committment of $20MM and no other true cleanup hitter in the system, the Brewers are not in a position to move Ramirez this winter, so they need him healthy and productive in the middle of their order.

The middle of the order also depends on the return of Ryan Braun, who landed on the disabled list for the first time in his career (right hand nerve inflammation) and was suspended 65 games for violations of the Basic Agreement and the Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program stemming from his involvement with the Biogenesis clinic. If Braun suffers a post-Biogenesis decline, the Brewers do have options with the emergence of rookie Khris Davis (.279/.353/.596 with 11 home runs in 153 plate appearances). Davis, however, has been susceptible to injury (wrist, quad, and hamstring problems in September alone) and has defensive limitations making him strictly a left fielder (an attempt to learn first base in Instructional League a couple years ago was an abject failure). The Brewers acknowledge internal discussions about a possible move to right field for Braun in order to free up left for Davis and making Norichika Aoki, the incumbent right fielder with a very affordable 2014 club option worth $1.5MM, a prime trade chip. Melvin, however, seems hesitant to deal Aoki.

"Those things are like pitching. You never have enough," Melvin said of the Brewers' outfield depth (as quoted by MLB.com's Adam McCalvy). "Look at the injuries that can happen. Aoki can play left field; he can play right field. Whenever we make those decisions, he's probably going to be a part of that offense. You've got to have depth, too, if you're not going to get involved in free agency. We don't know that yet; we don't know where that market is going. Probably outfield is where we have a trade piece if we want to trade to maybe fill another hole."

The Brewers' starting rotation struggled in the first half with hamstring injuries forcing Yovani Gallardo and Marco Estrada to the disabled list and Wily Peralta to miss a start. Kyle Lohse also skipped a start because of a balky elbow (a possible effect of not signing with the Brewers until March – missing five weeks of Spring Training). Good health brought better results. The quartet of Lohse, Gallardo, Peralta, and Estrada showed enough during the second half of the season to earn a rotation spot heading into Spring Training. Gallardo was the subject of several 2013 Trade Deadline rumors, but the Brewers are not inclined to give up on a homegrown pitching talent with a team-friendly contract unless the return justifies creating a hole in their rotation. Tyler Thornburg (2-1, 1.47 ERA in seven starts), Johnny Hellweg, (the Brewers' minor league pitcher of the year), and Jimmy Nelson (the organization's top prospect, according to MLB.com) will battle it out to become the fifth starter. A veteran will only be brought in to compete with these young hurlers if a Lohse-like situation presents itself. 

The bullpen, so dreadful in 2012 with 29 blown saves and ranked dead last in ERA, was a strength in 2013 because of young arms. After trading away John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez, Jim Henderson inherited the closer role and excelled with 28 saves in 29 opportunities (he blew three saves while acting as the setup man for Rodriguez). Rob Wooten and Brandon Kintzler covered the 7th and 8th innings, respectively. Tom Gorzelanny failed to impress in a 10-start audition, so he will return to a lefty reliever/spot starter role in 2014. Burke Badenhop, Donovan Hand, Alfredo Figaro, and Michael Blazek (acquired in the Axford deal) are among the in-house options to round out the relief corps. The lone need is a veteran presence at the back end of the bullpen, in case Henderson stumbles. A reunion with Rodriguez is not out of the question because of his relationship with Roenicke. K-Rod has shown a willingness to pitch the 8th inning for him in the past and may do so again, if a closer job is not available elsewhere. 

Another area of strength for the Brewers is up-the-middle: center fielder Carlos Gomez, shortstop Jean Segura, and catcher Lucroy. Gomez received a three-year, $24MM contract extension in March and showed he was worth every penny earning his first All-Star berth en route to establishing career-highs in every offensive category. Gomez also led or tied for the team lead in home runs, doubles, triples, and runs scored while becoming the first player in franchise history to record a 20-40 season. He played Gold Glove defense, as well, (the first Brewer to earn the honor since 1982 and the first outfielder since 1979) with a career-high 12 assists, the second-highest total in the NL. Segura, also a first-time All-Star, could be next in line for a Spring Training extension after posting a slash of .294/.329/.423 with 44 stolen bases (second in the NL) in his first full MLB season. Segura, however, slumped in the second half hitting only .244/.268/.315. While both sides talked last month, the Brewers may want to wait one more year before engaging in serious negotiations to see what kind of numbers Segura will produce consistently, a sentiment shared by his agent Joe Klein. Lucroy replaced Braun in the three-hole, leading the team in RBIs while batting .321 with runners in scoring position and less than two outs. Gomez and Lucroy are under contract through 2016 while Segura is under team control until 2019.

The Brewers need to determine who will play second base – Rickie Weeks or Scooter Gennett. Melvin has said the decision will be made in Spring Training and nothing will happen during the offseason to help the franchise make that selection. Not expected to be cleared for baseball activity until February, the Brewers are hoping to use Spring Training to showcase Weeks for a possible trade, a faint possibility due to his injury history and $11MM salary. If a team is willing to gamble on Weeks, the Brewers will have to eat a substantial portion of the salary, a difficult decision for any budget-conscious organization to make. If Weeks is unable to return to his 2010-11 level of production, the next best scenario is a healthy Weeks platooning with the left-handed hitting Gennett (.324/.356/.479 in 230 plate appearances), who struggled against left-handers (.154/.175/.154 in a small sample size of 39 plate appearances). Such an arrangement benefitted Weeks in June when he hit .355 with a 1.106 OPS.

The Brewers play in arguably the strongest division in the National League, but feel they can compete with the Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds by complementing their core of Braun, Ramirez, Gomez, Segura, and Lucroy with a return to good health and improvements to the right-side of their infield. "Can we win with this roster? Yeah, we can win with the roster we have," said Melvin (as quoted by Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). "I think if our best players are on the field and our young guys take that next step, we can be there." 

Arbitration Breakdown: Craig Kimbrel

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Over the next few months, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

In just over three years on the baseball diamond as a member of the Atlanta Braves, Craig Kimbrel has accomplished a wide variety of feats. He has led the National League in saves for three years in a row, with 139 saves in his young career. Kimbrel struck out a fantastic 381 hitters, which amounts to 43 percent of all hitters faced (more than twice the league average). He has also kept runs off the board like no one else, allowing a microscopic 1.39 ERA in his 227 1/3 innings pitched. Now, we can add one more trophy to his case here at MLB Trade Rumors: he is the namesake of the Kimbrel Rule, as well as the first player whose arbitration salary projection has ever been affected by it. Why do we need this Kimbrel Rule? Quite simply, Kimbrel broke my arbitration model.

The result that the model spit out was so outlandishly high that no panel would ever have awarded it to him. The model works by considering how panels and settling parties (teams and agents) have previously interpreted different statistics and factors into their decision, and provides a salary estimate based on these. This is often useful, for example, because we can see how many saves a closer would need to have to offset a higher ERA than a previous comparable. Similarly, for a hitter, we can see how much an MVP adds to salary and how many home runs a hitter would need to belt to make up the difference. However, there is no category in which Kimbrel failed to dominate the preceding closers who have reached their first year of arbitration.

Consider the following lists of maximum first-year salaries for closers in arbitration over the previous seven years:

Jonathan Papelbon ($6.25MM):

  • Platform year—41 SV, 2.34 ERA, 69 1/3 IP, 77 SO
  • Previous years—72 SV, 1.63 ERA, 160 2/3 IP, 193 SO

Bobby Jenks ($5.60MM):

  • Platform year—30 SV, 2.63 ERA, 61 2/3 IP, 38 SO
  • Previous years—87 SV, 3.26 ERA, 174 IP, 186 SO

John Axford ($5.00MM):

  • Platform year—35 SV, 4.68 ERA, 69 1/3 IP, 93 SO
  • Previous years—71 SV, 2.26 ERA, 139 1/3 IP, 171 SO

Brian Wilson ($4.46MM):

  • Platform year: 38 SV, 2.74 ERA, 72 1/3 IP, 83 SO
  • Previous years: 48 SV, 4.34 ERA, 116 IP, 108 SO

Now consider Kimbrel’s primary arbitration-relevant statistics:

Craig Kimbrel (unknown):

  • Platform year—50 SV, 1.21 ERA, 67 IP, 98 SO
  • Previous years—89 SV, 1.46 ERA, 160.1 IP, 283 SO

Now consider the records for each of these statistics by all closers (defined by having 15 platform-year saves or 50 pre-platform saves) put together before Kimbrel, which we will call Mutant Super-Closer:

Mutant Super-Closer:

  • Platform year—41 SV, 1.71 ERA, 78 1/3 IP, 93 SO
  • Previous years—87 SV, 1.63 ERA, 252 IP, 269 SO

Other than innings, Kimbrel actually beat the Mutant Super-Closer too. He beat every previous closer in every previous category.

Looking at the foursome of potential comparables above, it is clear that Papelbon is the only closer who even came close to achieving what Kimbrel ultimately has achieved, and he fell far short of Kimbrel’s accomplishments in every category.

Kimbrel had 50 saves in 2013, his platform season. The most any other pitcher has had going into his first year of arbitration in recent memory (which includes the last seven years, the data I have available) was Jonathan Papelbon, who had 41. No one had more career saves in recent memory than Bobby Jenks who had 117 going into arbitration for the first time, but Kimbrel has 139.

Kimbrel has a 1.39 career ERA, which is well ahead of any other closer reaching arbitration. The closest was Papelbon who had a 1.84 ERA going into his first year of arbitration in 2009, but his 2.34 platform year ERA fell far short of Kimbrel’s 1.21 mark for 2013.

Kimbrel also has all other closers beat on strikeouts too, tallying 381. The next highest for a closer going into his first year of arbitration was 362 strikeouts by Carlos Marmol leading into 2010, but Marmol’s 23 career saves at this point fall well short of Kimbrel’s 139.

In the end, there just weren’t any comparable pitchers for Kimbrel. There was no category where he fell short of another closer’s mark, and the accolades piled on to escalate his salary projection. This is why we invented “The Kimbrel Rule,” which is defined by limiting the maximum salary projection possible to exceed the previous record for his player type to $1MM (and similarly, the maximum raise for a non-first time eligible player is $1MM greater than the previous record raise as well). In this case, no one has ever earned more in their first year of arbitration as a closer than Jonathan Papelbon, when he earned $6.25MM in 2009, so Kimbrel is projected for $7.25MM despite the model itself predicting a salary well in excess of this amount.

This number was selected as a rough approximation of what teams, agents, and arbitration panels have historically decided on. In general, the model I use does a good job of approximating the end-result of their decision processes, but when faced with no historical precedent, there is often a settlement that avoids beating the previous record by too much. Therefore, we have made this specific rule a part of the model. It is not the first time that we have let the model “have eyes.” For players who do not play in a given season, we have observed that they so frequently get rewarded with their exact previous salary that this is now an explicit rule in the model. No player gets projected for a decrease in salary anymore because those that would have often received this floor anyway—their previous salary. Now, we have a rule for the ceiling for players.

We are eagerly awaiting the ultimate settlement in the Kimbrel case, because we have spent much of the last few months discussing the peculiar case of Mr. Craig M. Kimbrel. It is our suspicion that he will land much closer to the $7.25MM we have projected for him than the high number the model produced, which I might as well confess was actually $10.2MM. However, Kimbrel is not just the namesake of the rule; he is also the first test of the Kimbrel Rule. While a couple other players will have their salaries dampened by the Kimbrel Rule in 2014, the amount that it changed their salary projection was under $1MM in these cases, nothing that could shine a light on the theory. Going forward, this may be a clue about how to treat exceptional cases for us (and possibly, for the teams and players themselves). Of course, maybe the Braves will hurry up and settle with him before he breaks my computer.

Hiroshima Carp Sign Zach Phillips

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Here are today's minor moves from around the league…

  • Left-hander Zach Phillips has signed a one-year deal with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, according to a Sanspo report passed on by Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker (via Twitter). Phillips receives a $154K signing bonus and a $409K salary, and the Carp hold a club option for the 2015 season, according to Sanspo. The 27-year-old Phillips pitched 1 2/3 innings for the Marlins this season and has a 3.45 ERA and 14-to-8 K/BB ratio in 15 2/3 Major League innings. Selected in the 23rd round of the 2004 draft by the Rangers, Phillips has a 3.21 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 221 2/3 career innings at Triple-A. He was particularly dominant in Triple-A this season, totaling a 2.44 ERA with a 74-to-24 K/BB ratio in 59 innings. He is represented by agent Matt Colleran, as shown in MLBTR's Agency Database.
  • As shown in MLBTR's DFA Tracker, right-handers Peter Moylan of the Dodgers and Pedro Beato of the Red Sox are currently in DFA limbo along with left-handers Tommy Layne and Colt Hynes of the Padres.

Free Agent Profile: Suk-min Yoon

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Suk-min Yoon is a 27-year-old right-handed pitcher who intends to jump from the Korea Baseball Organization to MLB this offseason.  Hyun-jin Ryu was the ace of KBO and had success in his first MLB season, but what can we expect from the second best pitcher out of Korea?

Strengths/Pros

After bouncing between the rotation and bullpen for most of his career, Yoon had a breakout 2011 season, posting a 2.45 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 0.52 HR/9 in 172 1/3 innings, winning the MVP award.  Yoon's 2012 was excellent as well: a 3.12 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 0.53 HR/9 in 153 frames.  Check out all of his stats at MyKBO.net.  Yoon has experience as a closer, so a relief role could be possible if necessary.

According to report two years ago from Yahoo's Jeff Passan, Yoon's fastball sat at 93 miles per hour and one scout deemed his change-up above average.  Yoon has been represented for several years by Scott Boras, who told George A. King III of the New York Post, "He’s a 91 to 92 [mph] guy. He’s a good pitcher … not an overpowering arm."  King says Boras sees Yoon as a Kyle Lohse type, though it's not clear if Boras or King drew the comparison.  One source I spoke to feels Yoon has the potential for three above average pitches.  

Yoon will pitch next year at age 27, meaning he's the youngest free agent starter available and one of few in his 20s.

As an international free agent, Yoon will not require a draft pick to sign.  Additionally, unlike Ryu, Yoon is a free agent and will not require a posting fee.

Weaknesses/Cons

Yoon dealt with a shoulder injury in 2013, about which not much is known publicly.  Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency tells me the injury "seemed serious."  Yoon made 11 starts with a 4.16 ERA, as well as 19 relief appearances with a 3.60 mark.  Yoon's coaches asked him to close for the Kia Tigers in their time of need in August, prompting his move to the bullpen.  At any rate, Yoon's 172 1/3 innings in 2011 was a career-high, so 30 big league starts would be a new level for him.  The increased travel may have worn on Ryu this year and could affect Yoon as well.  After an off year, it may have made sense to rebuild value in Korea, but Yoon wants to come over now.

Yoon has certainly been accessible to scouts over the years in Korea, and he has pitched in the 2008 Summer Olympics and the 2009 and 2013 World Baseball Classics.  However, we haven't seen much in the way of scouting reports in the public arena yet, and it's unclear if he even rates as an MLB starter.  One MLB executive I spoke to sees Yoon as a reliever.

Personal

Yoon is a single guy, and Yoo tells me the pitcher enjoys driving and fishing (and perhaps driving to go fishing).  Yoo says Yoon is "not a rah-rah guy in the clubhouse," but in Korean sports culture age and seniority matter a great deal in determining the clubhouse leader.  There was one maturity issue in 2010, when Yoon broke his right pinkie after punching his locker.  

Market

Yoon rumors have been light in the early going.  In mid-October, Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500 said the Twins would scout Yoon's showcase, but Boras later told King no showcase was happening.  And while Boras intends to engage Yankees GM Brian Cashman about Yoon, there's no indication whether the team is interested.  Along with the Twins, the Cubs, Rays, Royals, and Orioles are among the teams with Korean scouts, so they may have extra information on Yoon.

Expected Contract

Of my contract predictions so far, I have the least confidence in this one, due to the lack of public information on Yoon.  He's a bit of a wild card, but I'm going with a two-year, $10MM deal.

Thanks to Dan Kurtz of myKBO.net and Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency for insight.

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Cardinals, Tigers

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The Red Sox and Cardinals can continue to count on help from their farm system, Baseball America's Matt Eddy writes. Eddy has organized Baseball America's recent lists of the top 20 prospects in each minor league into rankings that approximate the amount of impact talent in each team's system, as well as how close that talent is the the Majors. The Red Sox rank first, thanks largely to Xander Bogaerts. The Cardinals, led by Oscar Taveras and Michael Wacha, rank eighth. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • GM John Mozeliak believes the Cardinals' success could lead other teams to pursue their coaches, scouts and front office personnel, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. "This success is likely going to propel some people because there is no doubt you’re going to see (clubs) trying to look at ways to emulate what’s happening here," says Mozeliak. "So, frankly, you’ve got to have quality succession plans in line, and prepare. I think it’s a great compliment." Coaches Jose Oquendo and Mike Aldrete might wind up being managerial candidates for other teams, for example.
  • The Tigers will interview Padres special assistant Brad Ausmus and bench coach Rich Renteria for their manager job, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The Tigers had already interviewed internal candidate Lloyd McClendon, along with Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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Fed up after a 2012 season in which they went 68-94 and allowed 178 runs more than they scored, the Indians attempted to force their way into contention by signing Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn the following offseason. Cleveland improved by 24 games in 2013 and made the postseason for the first time since 2007, falling in a one-game playoff against the Rays. They'll aim to repeat that success in 2013, but first they'll need to patch up their pitching staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligibles

Contract Options

  • Ubaldo Jimenez, $8MM club option, $1MM buyout; Jimenez may void option after being traded by Rockies
  • Jason Kubel, OF: $7.5MM mutual option, $1MM buyout

Free Agents

The Indians' additions of Swisher and Bourn were important parts of the their 2013 season, but those weren't the only reasons they succeeded. Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana continued to emerge as top young players. Yan Gomes, acquired the previous offseason in a relatively minor trade with the Blue Jays, caught 85 games and was one of Cleveland's best hitters. And Ryan Raburn posted a ridiculous .272/.357/.543 line in a part-time role. Meanwhile, the Indians' starting pitchers — primarily Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Corey Kluber, Scott Kazmir and Zach McAllister — were very reliable, which might not have seemed that likely at the beginning of the year.

The Indians' rotation will likely be the focus of much of their offseason. Kazmir is a free agent, and Jimenez essentially is as well. Danny Salazar, coming off a brilliant season split between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors, will take over one of their spots, but that still leaves one opening. It's not impossible that Kazmir will be back, but it's very unlikely that Jimenez will be. After Masterson, Salazar, Kluber and McAllister, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer are probably the Indians' next options; Carrasco is a perfectly reasonable depth piece (if not more), but Bauer did not even pitch well at Triple-A in 2013.

The right side of the Indians' infield is relatively set, with Swisher as the primary starter at first and Kipnis at second. (Swisher could also start in the outfield if need be, freeing the Indians to pursue another first baseman, but the free agent market at first base is not particularly strong.) Asdrubal Cabrera is still Cleveland's shortstop, although the Indians could consider trading him this offseason, given his $10MM salary and the presence of top prospect Francisco Lindor. Lindor does not turn 20 until November and probably will not make his big-league debut until late 2014, at the earliest, so if the Indians were to trade Cabrera, they could look for a free agent shortstop or hand the position to Mike Aviles.

Lonnie Chisenhall will likely play third; the former first-round pick has not managed to stick in parts of three seasons in the Majors, but he only turned 25 this month and has hit well at Triple-A. Aviles, who got 37 starts for the Indians at third in 2013, will likely pick up starts at third yet again if Chisenhall continues to struggle. Gomes and Santana will continue on as the Indians' catchers, with Santana also picking up starts at first and DH. The Indians also apparently have interest in keeping Jason Giambi for 2014, either as a player or a coach.

Bourn and Michael Brantley will occupy two outfield spots, which leaves one open. Drew Stubbs hit just .233/.305/.360 in 2013; given his defense and the fact that he's relatively cheap, it might still be worth tendering him a contract, but the Indians likely won't want to go into Spring Training with him penciled in as a starter. The Indians do have an in-house alternative in Ryan Raburn, who was revelatory in 2013. His spectacular hitting was so far out of character, though, that it's hard to see him repeating it, particularly if he doesn't get 45% of his plate appearances against lefties again. Anyway, even if the Indians acquire another outfielder, finding at bats for Raburn shouldn't be hard.

In the bullpen, the Indians may find themselves looking for a new closer, given Chris Perez's struggles down the stretch and his projected 2014 salary of $9MM. If the Indians do indeed non-tender Perez, young righty Cody Allen, who posted 11.3 K/9 while throwing mid-90s gas last season, would be an excellent candidate to replace him. In addition to Perez, several other relievers could depart, including Joe Smith, Rich Hill and Matt Albers. Along with Allen, Bryan Shaw and Marc Rzepczynski are the only obvious returnees. The Indians could promote an arm or two for the minors, but it still looks like they may need to sign a reliever or two out of free agency.

The Indians, then, could have three key items on their to-do list: replacing Jimenez and/or Kazmir; adding a hitter to play either first base or right field, whichever Swisher doesn't occupy; and buying themselves a new bullpen. Even after drawing just 1.5MM fans in 2013, the Indians say they'll be able to field a "contending team" in 2014, although they haven't explained what their payroll might be. Without knowing the Indians' financial plans, it's hard to say how their offseason will go. The early signals, however, aren't that encouraging for Indians fans, as it already appears very unlikely that the team will be able to re-sign Jimenez. It doesn't take much money to patch up a bullpen, but it does take money to sign a slugger or a good starting pitcher.

On the field, the Indians' 2013 season was a success. But they drew fewer than 20K fans even for some weekend home games in September, when they were in the thick of a playoff race. The previous offseason's acquisitions of Swisher and Bourn were reasonably successful from a baseball perspective, but they did not appear to help attract fans who might have been put off by the team's awful performance in 2012. Swisher and Bourn are under contract for the next three seasons, regardless. Even with the new TV deal to which the Indians agreed before the 2013 season, it remains to be seen whether the team will shell out more money now that it's clear the last spending spree wasn't particularly effective at bringing fans through the gates.

Bullpen and Jimenez aside, then, unless the Indians get creative on the trade market, the key players on the 2014 team may end up being fairly similar to last season's. They won 92 games in 2013, so clearly, that's not the worst thing in the world. But it's fair to wonder if Gomes, Raburn and Kluber, in particular, are really as good as they were in 2013, and whether the Indians have the pitching depth they need. Even if not, the Indians could well make up the difference with slightly better performances from Swisher, Bourn, Chisenhall and Cabrera (if he's still around), along with a full season of Salazar. But a much clearer path to success would be to spend a bit of money to address the rotation and the outfield, and right now, it's not clear whether the Indians will be willing to do it.

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