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Archives for January 2014

Astros Sign Jesse Crain

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FRIDAY: Crain's one-year deal with the Astros is worth $3.25MM, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

TUESDAY: The Astros have signed right-hander Jesse Crain to a one-year contract, the team announced in a press release.  Terms of the contract weren't disclosed.  Crain is represented by Relativity Baseball.

Crain posted a 11.3 K/9, 4.18 K/BB rate and an incredible 0.74 ERA in 36 2/3 relief innings with the White Sox in 2013.  These eye-popping numbers put Crain on pace for the best season of his 10-year career, but his season was cut short by a shoulder injury.  Crain didn't pitch after June 29, though he was still elected to his first All-Star team.  Crain was still acquired by the Rays at the trade deadline with the hopes that he would recover, but the 32-year-old never threw a pitch as a Ray.

USATSI_7286329Crain's health is still something of a question mark, as Astros GM Jeff Luhnow told reporters (including Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle) that Crain has yet to begin his throwing program following his surgery in October.  That said, Crain passed his physical and Luhnow believes Crain is progressing well.  "We're not going to rush him but we feel like he's going to be ready to go certainly early in the season if not before," Luhnow said.

As MLBTR's Steve Adams noted in his Free Agent Profile of Crain back in October, a one-year deal would help Crain re-establish his value following his shoulder injury and possibly set him up for a more lucrative multiyear contract next winter.  While Crain apparently had some two-year offers on the table, he instead chose to just take a single guaranteed year in a familiar locale — Crain pitched for the University Of Houston.  Luhnow said in the press release that the team "targeted [Crain] early in the offseason," so the quick push from his semi-hometown team also might've helped influence Crain's decision.  The Cubs and Rockies were two of the other clubs known to be interested in Crain's services. 

Astros relievers posted a league-worst 4.92 ERA in 2013, so the bullpen was obviously a major focus for Luhnow this winter.  Crain joins Matt Albers and Chad Qualls as relievers the Astros have signed to Major League free agent deals, and Houston has also added Anthony Bass, Raul Valdes, Darin Downs and Peter Moylan in other moves.  Luhnow told reporters (including Evan Drellich) that manager Bo Porter will decide who closes games for the club and that Crain will be in the mix, though Crain has never worked as a closer before.

Crain ranked 46th on Tim Dierkes' list of this offseason's top 50 free agents, and Tim correctly predicted that Crain would end up with the Astros.

Photo courtesy of Cary Edmondson/USA Today Sports Images

Latest On Luis Ayala

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The Tigers, Indians, and Orioles are among the teams that have shown interest in right-handed reliever Luis Ayala this offseason, MLBTR has learned.  Ayala has received strong interest overall, and seeks a Major League deal.  

Ayala, 36 this month, posted a 3.27 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.55 HR/9, and 58.9% groundball rate in 33 innings for the Orioles and Braves in 2013.  Ayala began 2013 with Baltimore, but was traded to the Braves in April and later spent time on the DL for an anxiety disorder.  Among relievers with at least 30 innings in 2013, Ayala's groundball rate ranked 15th in MLB.  In addition to the aforementioned teams, I think clubs such as the Yankees, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, and Brewers may be fits for Ayala.  It seems likely that the free agent market will pick back up starting Monday as executives return to the office.

Extension Candidates

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From November 2012 through May 2013, 27 players with less than six years of Major League service signed contract extensions.  23 of these deals were signed after January 15th, and it's safe to say extension season will begin this year a little before the January 17th figure exchange date for arbitration eligible players.

Here's the breakdown by service time from the last extension period:

  • 1-2: 2
  • 2-3, not Super Two: 2
  • 2-3, Super Two: 4
  • 3-4 years: 4
  • 4-5 years: 8
  • 5-6 years: 7

It was a pretty even distribution – four players who were not yet arbitration eligible were extended (all in March or later), while at the other end of the spectrum, seven players were headed into their contract years and signed extensions instead.  Here's a look at each team's speculative extension candidates.  The date of the team's last multiyear deal for a player with less than six years of service is in parentheses.

With over 100 extension candidates listed, obviously I have taken an inclusive approach.  In each case, it makes sense to evaluate the history of the team, GM, and agent.  For example, the Yankees generally don't do multiyear deals with their players before they reach free agency, though their contract six years ago with Robinson Cano was a huge win.  And while agent Scott Boras typically encourages his clients to explore free agency, he was open to precedent-setting early deals for Elvis Andrus and Carlos Gonzalez (and was perhaps ordered to broker the team-friendly contract for Carlos Gomez).

I encourage you to explore the possibilities with extension candidates using the myriad of tools available at MLB Trade Rumors, including our extension tracker and arbitration tracker.

Examining The Brewers’ Avoidance Of Free Agency

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It's January 3rd, and the Brewers are the only team that has yet to sign a free agent to a Major League deal.  How normal is this free agent inactivity for them?  Here's a look at the team's past five offseasons in free agency.

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11 

2009-10

2008-09

My first thought upon examining these Brewers free agent forays is that it's no surprise Craig Counsell joined their front office.  Second, GM Doug Melvin did have a fairly recent offseason in which he only dipped his toe into free agency, when he committed $5.6MM on five one-year deals in 2010-11.

Another observation is that Melvin is comfortable signing free agents in the latter part of an offseason.  In the last five offseasons, he's signed 10 free agent deals in January or later: Lohse, Mike Gonzalez, Alex Gonzalez, Betancourt, Aoki, Kotsay, Davis, Hoffman, Looper, and Counsell.  That accounts for 40% of the free agents the Brewers signed during that time, and Melvin did at least one late deal every offseason (and four of five last winter).  He did late deals north of $5MM for Lohse, Davis, Looper, and Hoffman.

In Ed Creech's Brewers offseason outlook for MLBTR in October, he noted the team's needs at first base and potentially in the rotation and bullpen.  Since then the team made four moves: a waiver claim of utility man Elian Herrera,  the trade of Burke Badenhop for a pitching prospect, the selection of southpaw Wei-Chung Wang in the Rule 5 draft, and the trade of outfielder Aoki for lefty Will Smith.  Of Smith, Melvin told MLB.com's Adam McCalvy in December, "He'll come to camp and we'll look at him as a starter, but we know he can go to the bullpen."

It seems Melvin will make acquisitions to improve at first base and in the bullpen prior to Opening Day, and also perhaps trade Rickie Weeks if he can find a taker.  For first base, the Brewers have been linked to the Mets' Ike Davis and free agent Michael Young, and there's been speculation on names like Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland, Adam Lind, and Mike Carp.

Last March, Melvin and agent Scott Boras struck a very late, relatively team-friendly deal for starting pitcher Kyle Lohse that required the Brewers to forfeit the 17th overall draft pick.  This year, I imagine Boras feels a potential match exists with the Brewers and free agent Kendrys Morales.  The problem: the Brewers would have to forfeit the twelfth overall pick in the June draft to sign him.  While in theory the Brewers should consider giving up the pick if offered a big enough discount on Morales, it's extremely difficult to picture in reality.  With the draft scheduled for June 5th, the Brewers are better off surviving with Juan Francisco and others at first base for about two months and then signing Morales if they're in contention, free of the draft pick cost.  As we said last year with Lohse, if there's one agent willing to try this, it's Boras.

In the bullpen, Jim Henderson, Brandon Kintzler, and Gorzelanny are locked into spots, and Melvin has plenty of options for bargains in free agency.  While 2013-14 might be the Brewers' quietest free agent period in recent history, they have a GM known for doing contracts later in the offseason and he's not done yet.

Finding A Three-Year Deal In The New Year

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19 free agent contracts guaranteeing three or more years have already been signed this offseason, matching the high from the previous five offseasons.  With Ervin Santana, Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez, Stephen Drew, and Nelson Cruz still on the market, it seems likely we'll ultimately see 20 or more deals of three or more years in this 2013-14 offseason.  However, if recent history is a guide, one or more of these players will be left standing without a chair.

Here's a look at the number of contracts for three or more years signed in each of the past five offseasons:

  • 2012-13: 19
  • 2011-12: 11
  • 2010-11: 17
  • 2009-10: 8
  • 2008-09: 13

Please note that international free agents, typically from Japan or Cuba, have been excluded from this exercise since they often operate on different timelines than traditional free agents.

Of the 68 free agent contracts guaranteeing three or more years from the past five offseasons, 13 were officially signed in January or later (19.1%).  Of those 13, nine were clients of the Boras Corporation, including big money players like Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre, Matt Holliday, Mark Teixeira, and Derek Lowe.  Agent Scott Boras has a reputation of waiting out the market, and it has served him well in many cases.  While my early November projection of a four-year, $48MM deal for Boras client Stephen Drew seems unlikely at this point, I never viewed Kendrys Morales as likely to get a third guaranteed year.  Though the current market for Drew does not seem robust, I still expect Boras to get at least three years for him.

Since the 2008-09 offseason, only four free agents not represented by Boras have received contracts of three or more years in January or later: Edwin Jackson, Nick Swisher, Jason Bay, and Milton Bradley.  The deals for Jackson and Swisher were actually agreed upon prior to Christmas 2012 and announced officially on January 2nd and 3rd, respectively.  Similarly, the Mets' deal with Bay was reached on December 29th, 2009.  In the last five offseasons, Milton Bradley is the only non-Boras free agent to actually agree to a free agent contract of three or more years in January or later (January 5th, 2009).  Bradley's deal was done by ACES.

If you're a free agent who expected at least three years at the outset of the 2013-14 offseason, and you're not represented by Boras, this trend has to be troubling.  Specifically, the spotlight is on the agents for Ervin Santana (Bean Stringfellow), Matt Garza (Nez Balelo), Ubaldo Jimenez (John Courtright), and Nelson Cruz (Adam Katz).  If any of these four fail to get at least three years, their agent has failed to meet expectations.

As has been widely discussed, Cruz is in a perilous situation.  We don't know what offers the 33-year-old slugger has received to date, but he's tied to draft pick compensation and seems light on current suitors.  Way back in October while working on Cruz's free agent profile for MLBTR, Steve Adams pitched a two-year, $26MM prediction to me and it sounded about right at the time.  Enough information came out in the week following that both of us felt good about Steve's ultimate three-year, $39MM prediction.

In late November, after fellow Biogenesis-connected free agent Jhonny Peralta signed a surprisingly strong four-year, $53MM deal, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports heard from sources that Cruz was "said to seek about $75 million over four years."  While starting negotiations at four years was a plausible tactic in November, an average annual value approaching $19MM never seemed realistic.  Nearly two weeks later, on the first day of the Winter Meetings, ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted that the Rangers were comfortable with a two-year deal for Cruz, while he sought three from them.  Now we're in early January, and I'd bet against Cruz getting a third year from any team.  While a two-year deal may be viewed as underwhelming for Katz, it's worth noting that he doesn't control the ebb and flow of media and fan expectations, and it's possible Cruz never received a reasonable three-year offer.  Katz presumably did have a strong hand in Cruz's decision to turn down the Rangers' qualifying offer in November, which will be questioned if the outfielder falls short of Steve Adams' original guess of two years and $26MM.

There's a good reason why Santana, Garza, and Jimenez remain unsigned, and his name is Masahiro Tanaka.  Tanaka outranked all three in my top 50 free agents rankings published November 4th, and factors related to the revised Japanese posting system delayed the 25-year-old's true entry into free agency until the day after Christmas.  During the 2011-12 offseason, bids were due for Yu Darvish by December 14th, and the situation didn't stop C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle from signing strong contracts before then.  It was much more cut and dry with Darvish — the Rangers were revealed as the high bidder on December 19th, and all other interested parties could move on.  With Tanaka, it seems likely more than 20 teams pledged the newly-capped posting fee of $20MM, paid only by the club that signs the pitcher after a standard free agent free-for-all.  The process does have an end in sight, with a January 24th deadline in place.

Back in 2011, the Angels and Marlins had not been connected to Darvish prior to their signings of Wilson and Buehrle.  Conversely, Tanaka seems to be Plan A for many teams, and the would-be contenders that miss out on him probably will turn to Santana, Garza, and Jimenez.  The Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Yankees, Angels, and Mariners can't all get Tanaka, and it's possible none of them do, so demand could be strong for the Plan B trio even as the calendar turns to February.  Santana and Garza were expected to easily exceed Ricky Nolasco's four-year, $49MM deal (agreed to prior to Thanksgiving), while Jimenez seemed to have a good shot at a similar contract.  I'm sure their agents are unhappy about the way things have unfolded, and there's always a chance the bottom drops out on one of the three pitchers as budgets become settled and we approach time for pitchers and catchers to report in mid-February.  

In the end, there's room for good starting pitching on most teams, plus Tanaka could sign before January 24th.  I still expect Santana, Garza, and Jimenez to receive deals of three or more years, even though there's no precedent from the last five offseasons.

Quick Hits: Free Agents, Scherzer, Papelbon, Mulder

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With Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kendrys Morales and Ervin Santana all in seeming free agent limbo after rejecting qualifying offers, Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan argues that the current free agent compensation system has proven to be too limiting.  While teams will give up draft picks to sign bigger stars like Robinson Cano, the so-called second tier of free agents are finding it much harder to get work.  "Last offseason, there were a number of guys affected in ways different than we expected compared to a freer market to pursue jobs.  It appears that's happening again, " MLBPA executive director Tony Clark said.  One club executive suggested to Passan that teams could make qualifying offers to more free agents next winter given the evidence about how it pushes prices down for some players.

Here's some more from around baseball…

  • The Tigers have recently made several important moves in the post-Christmas offseason period, and 2014's big early-year move could be laying the groundwork for a Max Scherzer extension, MLB.com's Jason Beck opines.  Beck thinks GM Dave Dombrowski will look to a one-year deal for 2014 to avoid going to arbitration with Scherzer, and those talks could lead to negotiations with agent Scott Boras over a longer-term extension.
  • Also from Beck, he wonders if the Tigers could discuss a new contract with Miguel Cabrera (signed through 2015) or possibly add another reliever to the bullpen.  Detroit has already addressed its main bullpen need by signing closer Joe Nathan, and also acquired Ian Krol and Joba Chamberlain for the relief corps.
  • Jonathan Papelbon discussed his name surfacing in recent trade rumors, the differences between the Phillies' and Red Sox clubhouse atmospheres and his joy at seeing his ex-Boston teammates win the World Series last October in a frank radio interview with Rob Bradford and John McDonald on WEEI's Hot Stove Show.  A partial transcript of the interview is available at WEEI.com.
  • The Phillies were interested in Mark Mulder before the veteran signed with the Angels, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).
  • Forbes Magazine's Maury Brown discusses Major League Baseball's growing revenues and the effect on player salaries and acquisitions in a podcast with BostInno's Alex Reimer, who has a partial transcript of the interview here.
  • MLB.com's Anthony DiComo covers a number of Mets-related topics as part of a reader mailbag, including how he doesn't see Dee Gordon or Didi Gregorius as logical trade targets for the team.

AL East Links: Baldelli, Fuld, Yankees, Lackey

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Rocco Baldelli was forced into premature retirement at age 29, but the former Rays outfielder has adjusted well to his post-playing career.  As MLB.com's Bill Chastain relates, Baldelli is acting as something of a jack-of-all-trades as a special assistant in the Rays' baseball operations department, helping the club with everything from scouting to draft preparation to Spring Training work.  "I get to see everything. I really enjoy gaining a perspective on everything we're doing. … It gives you a big picture view, and during the year I get the micro view of the organization," Baldelli said.

Here's some news from around the AL East…

  • Sam Fuld is keeping the Rays in "the mix" as he decides his next contract, the outfielder tells Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times.  "Would definitely be nice to be back if the opportunity is right," Fuld said, adding that he is "just waiting for the landscape to clear a bit."  MLBTR's Zach Links reported last week that Fuld has been offered minor league deals from five teams, some of which have already been ruled out.
  • The Yankees' plan to drastically overspend on the 2014-15 international free agent market is further explored by Scout.com's Kiley McDaniel, who explains why the Yankees are making this splash now and how they're exploiting this loophole in what McDaniel believes is a "broken" international spending system.
  • There has been some speculation that the Red Sox could trade John Lackey, as the team is looking to move a veteran starter to make room for a younger arm.  Trading Lackey would definitely be a sell-high move for Boston and they could command a strong return given Lackey's 2013 performance and his team-friendly contract, but MLB.com's Ian Browne doesn't "see any way the Red Sox will look to trade Lackey."  That same team-friendly deal is also a boon to the Sox, Browne notes, and "barring a stunning development," Lackey will be on the Opening Day roster.
  • In AL East news from earlier today on MLB Trade Rumors, Blue Jays manager John Gibbons' option for 2015 was guaranteed since he was still employed at the start of the calendar year, the Rays claimed southpaw Pedro Figueroa off waivers from the A's, and we shared a collection of Orioles notes.

NL West Notes: D’Backs, Tanaka, Hanley, Giants

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The Diamondbacks consider Masahiro Tanaka to be their "No. 1 target" and are serious suitors for the Japanese ace, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports.  Had Arizona not acquired Mark Trumbo, the Snakes were open to spending the $140MM that agent Scott Boras said it would've taken to sign Shin-Soo Choo, and Rosenthal notes that D'Backs management could instead invest that money (the $20MM posting fee and a $120MM contract) towards landing Tanaka.  The D'Backs could have an extra source for information on Tanaka in the form of scout Rick Short, who played with Tanaka from 2007-09 on the Rakuten Golden Eagles.

You can click here for some Tanaka news from earlier today, and here are some more items from around the NL West…

  • Also from Rosenthal's piece, Arizona could be more motivated to sign an ace like Tanaka in free agency since they found the Cubs' and Rays' respective asking prices for Jeff Samardzija and David Price to be too high, Rosenthal notes, not to mention the fact that Price will become more expensive in his final two arbitration-eligible seasons.  The D'Backs rate Tanaka higher than other free agent arms like Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana.
  • Hanley Ramirez and the Dodgers have reportedly been discussing an extension this offseason and ESPN Los Angeles' Mark Saxon looks at some of the factors involved in giving Ramirez a major new deal.
  • In a Giants-related mailbag, MLB.com's Chris Haft argues that the Giants should've given Brett Pill more time to prove himself rather than give those at-bats to Jeff Francoeur last summer.  Pill's rights were recently sold to the KIA Tigers of the Korean Baseball Organization and his deal with the club was just finalized today.  As Haft writes, "the sense here is that the Giants jettisoned Pill without fully discovering what they had in him."
  • Buster Posey is just one season into his multiyear extension with the Giants and he's still owed $157MM over the next eight seasons.  While it's far too early to place a verdict on this contract, Grant Brisbee of the McCovey Chronicles argues that the Giants may have saved money by locking Posey up last March as opposed to this offseason, as San Francisco might've had to offer their star catcher a nine- or even a ten-year deal in the $200MM threshold.

AL West Notes: Cruz, Feliz, Blanton, Astros

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Nelson Cruz's market seems almost non-existent in the eyes of Fangraphs' Jeff Sullivan, who goes through every team in baseball to try and find a home for the outfielder.  Twenty-nine teams are "stretches" or "not a fit," while only the Orioles are a "decent" candidate, and Kendrys Morales might be a better fit for them.  A return to the Rangers would be a "stretch," and GM Jon Daniels recently said that he expects Cruz to sign elsewhere now that Shin-Soo Choo is in the fold.  MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth also took a crack at examining Cruz's market a few days ago — a reader poll pegged the Mariners as the best contender to sign Cruz, though they garnered just over 23% of the vote. 

Here's the latest from around the AL West…

  • Neftali Feliz wants to be a reliever for the rest of his career and he's intent on regaining his old job as the Rangers' closer, the righty tells MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan via a translator.  Feliz said he is "finally" recovered from Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for most of 2012 and 2013, cutting short his stint in the Texas rotation at the start of the 2012 season.  Feliz has pitched well out of the bullpen in the Dominican Winter League and he'll compete with Joakim Soria and Tanner Scheppers for the closer's job in 2014.
  • The Angels will bring Joe Blanton to Spring Training and if they can't find a trade for the veteran hurler, MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez opines (via Twitter), Blanton will simply be released.  Blanton posted a career-worst 6.04 ERA in 2013, though the advanced metrics (3.84 xFIP, 3.92 SIERA) indicate that ERA was inflated thanks to an ungainly 19.1% home run rate and a .346 BABIP.  The Halos would eat $8.5MM if they released Blanton — his $7.5MM salary for 2014 and the $1MM buyout of his $8MM 2015 option.
  • Gonzalez also tweets that he expects the Angels to sign another free agent pitcher to their rotation.
  • Since the Astros have been in full-on rebuilding mode for virtually all of GM Jeff Luhnow's tenure, some player agents told Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle this offseason that they were simply weren't that familiar with Luhnow.  “All of our current players have representatives, and I’ve dealt with a lot of the agents and agencies through the draft over the years…But yeah, it’s a different position that we’re in this year relative to last year. Remember, in 2011, I was hired in December, and at that point things were fairly far along and there was not a lot of flexibility of doing much except for trades we did," Luhnow said.  "To a certain extent, having the position flexibility and financial flexibility to participate in the free-agent market has been a new experience for me as a general manager, and a good one.” 
  • With all the big moves in the AL West this offseason, Drellich opines that some of the would-be contenders in the division could have already peaked in a couple of seasons' time, when the Astros will be ready to step up and contend themselves.
  • In AL West news from earlier today, Athletics third baseman Josh Donaldson found a new agent and we got some updates on Mark Mulder's contract with the Angels.

Nationals Notes: Molina, Tanaka, Payroll

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The Nationals had interest in Jose Molina as the club's backup catcher in 2014, MLB.com's Bill Ladson reports, but Molina instead chose to re-sign with Tampa Bay.  This leaves Chris Snyder (signed to a minor league deal two weeks ago) and prospects Jhonatan Solano and Sandy Leon as the current candidates to spell Wilson Ramos behind the plate.  Ladson discusses the Nats' middle infield options, a possible lineup and other topics as part of his reader mailbag piece.  Here are some more Nationals-related items….

  • James Wagner and Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post have a Nationals mailbag piece of their own, which includes Kilgore's opinion that the Nats won't pursue Masahiro Tanaka "in any meaningful way" since he'll command too high a price.  That said, the Nats have scouted Tanaka and like him; the baseball operations department feels Tanaka is "pretty close in quality to Yu Darvish" except they project Tanaka as a dominant ground-ball pitcher instead of a big strikeout arm.   
  • Rather than spend on Tanaka, the Nationals will use their remaining funds on extensions for Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann.  Kilgore opines that the Nats could sign Tanaka and then use Zimmermann as trade bait (as they may explore trading him next winter anyway if he can't be extended), but he firmly says that this scenario is just his speculation and it's "not happening" in real life.
  • Based on past indications by ownership, the Nationals' payroll will never rise much higher than $140MM in the near future.  The Lerners could eventually change course and elevate the payroll to nearer the luxury tax level, Kilgore writes, if they believed such spending would generate more revenue.
  • The Nationals could bolster their roster with five lower-tier free agents, Chase Hughes of CSNWashington.com writes.  Jeff Baker and John Buck would add veteran depth for the bench, Mike Gonzalez or Oliver Perez would fit as more left-handed depth in the bullpen and Fernando Rodney could be a surprise closer signing if the Nats are still unsatisfied with the back end of their bullpen.

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