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Which Top 2016 Free Agents Will Negotiate In-Season?

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Last week we published my 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings, an assessment of the earning power of players on track to reach free agency after the 2015 season.  Sometimes contract year players cut off extension negotiations at the start of the season, while others are willing to negotiate at any time.  Here’s the latest on where these top potential free agents stand.

1.  Justin Upton.  In a December appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden, Upton’s agent Larry Reynolds indicated that he and his client did not want to negotiate during the season, and actually didn’t want to negotiate during Spring Training either.  So it looks like the Padres’ exclusive window to sign Upton to a new contract will only re-open after the season.  Padres position players are due to report to Spring Training today.

Key quote: “If anything were to happen, we’d probably want to do that before he packs up to go to Spring Training.” – Larry Reynolds, December 2014

2.  Jason Heyward.  Heyward was asked in January at the Cardinals’ Winter Warm-Up whether he would have a reason to stop talking contract once the season started, and he replied, “At this point, I don’t.” (Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reporting).  According to Goold, the two sides had yet to discuss an extension at that point in January, though GM John Mozeliak did say he’d be interested in pursuing one.  Goold explained, “The Cardinals prefer to bring a player in, wrap him in red and then do what’s possible to keep him.”  As Goold notes, retaining Heyward would require the largest contract in franchise history, which is currently Matt Holliday’s seven-year, $120MM deal from January 2010.

Key quote: “For me, I hope I love it so much I won’t have to leave.” – Jason Heyward, January 2015

3.  David Price.  Interest is mutual in a deal between the Tigers and Price.  In January, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reported, the lefty said he’s open to anything, and GM Dave Dombrowski said, “We hope he stays a Tiger for a long time.”  Last Sunday in Lakeland, Price explained, “I’d probably rather not talk about it all year long.  But I don’t feel like closing any doors.  It doesn’t have to be cut off. I just don’t want to talk about it every day.” (Bob Nightengale of USA Today reporting).  Price did say he wanted to avoid the situation Max Scherzer went through with the Tigers last spring, where the team released a statement on March 23rd about the pitcher rejecting their contract offer.

Key quote: “I would definitely welcome it.  If it’s right for both of us, I’m sure we can make it happen.” – David Price, February 2015

4.  Ian Desmond.  Desmond’s agent Doug Rogalski and Nationals GM Mike Rizzo didn’t have any significant extension talks during the offseason, reported MLB.com’s Bill Ladson yesterday.  According to James Wagner of the Washington Post, Desmond said he hasn’t thought about whether he would be open to talking about an extension during the season.  Desmond doesn’t seem likely to be extended by the Nationals, but in-season negotiations have not been explicitly ruled out.

Key quote: “I’ve kind of kept it to myself and my agent. And that’s the way I plan on going forward. I feel like we’ve got a lot of expectations in here, and to reach them we’ve got to be really focused. I’m not going to be the one that adds any extra distractions.” – Ian Desmond, February 2015

5.  Johnny Cueto.  In December, Cueto’s agent Bryce Dixon set an Opening Day deadline for extension talks with the Reds, in talking to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, so less than six weeks remain.  Dixon noted in that conversation that Lester is a better comp for Cueto than Homer Bailey, while Max Scherzer is the closest comp.  The two sides held preliminary talks at the Winter Meetings in December.

Key quote: “He wants to stay if the numbers are right.” – Bryce Dixon, December 2014 (MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reporting)

6.  Jordan Zimmermann.  Zimmermann is willing to discuss a contract if the Nationals initiate talks this spring, but he does not want to negotiate in-season, reports Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington.com.  The pitcher said Saturday, “We negotiated a little bit and didn’t get very far,” also saying that he believes everything is on hold right now.

Key quote: “Once the season starts, I really don’t want to talk.  So if something happens in spring here, we’re willing to listen. But once the season starts, I don’t really want to talk about it.” – Jordan Zimmermann, February 2015

7.  Alex Gordon.  Talking to Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star on Saturday, Gordon backed off his previous suggestion that he’ll pick up his $14MM player option for 2016, saying, “That’s a question that honestly doesn’t need to be answered right now.  Because I don’t know the answer right now. I don’t know how this year is going to go, or how it’s going to look at the end of the year.”  According to McCullough, Gordon indicated there were no ongoing negotiations, but he’s willing to discuss an extension at any point during the season.

Key quote: “I want to stay here.  Absolutely. It’s close to home. Kansas City almost feels like my hometown. We love the city. We love everybody in this organization. And obviously it’s in a good place right now. It’s come a long way. And I want to be a part of the success that I think we’re still going to have.” – Alex Gordon, February 2015

8.  Zack Greinke.  Last Thursday, Greinke told reporters including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick he won’t decide whether to opt out of his contract until after the season.  Greinke can become a free agent that way, or he can stick with the remaining three years and $71MM covering 2016-18.  Greinke told reporters he’s open to negotiating with the Dodgers, noting, “and I’m sure they’re open to me taking a cheap deal.”

Key quote: “It’s all to your benefit. If things are going good, you can use it for more power. There’s no negative to it.” – Zack Greinke on his opt-out, February 2015

9.  Jeff Samardzija.  Samardzija’s agent Mark Rodgers joined Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM earlier this month and said he and his client will listen to the White Sox anytime they want to talk.  At the Winter Meetings in December, Sox GM Rick Hahn expressed interest in extending his new acquisition.  On the radio show in February, though, Rodgers explained that a player needs to reach free agency to determine his true open market value.

Key quote: “To talk about what his value is in free agency a year early would really do him an injustice, because I think there’s more to come, better to come from Jeff.” – Mark Rodgers, February 2015

10.  Matt Wieters.  Back in December, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe said there seems to be no urgency with Wieters’ camp or the Orioles to work out an extension.  Most of the talk lately about Wieters has been about whether he will be ready for Opening Day given his Tommy John surgery last June.  Since Wieters is a Scott Boras client, the chances of a deal getting done before free agency seem slim.

For some other names that could battle their way into the top ten in the coming months, check out my 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings.  The 2015-16 class looks very strong, much better than the projected 2016-17 group.  But how many of the ten players listed here will actually reach the open market?  I feel that Heyward, Price, and Gordon have reasonable chances of signing extensions, while the other seven are likely to reach free agency.

NL Central Notes: Wainwright, Manny, Maddon, Pirates

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Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright has left the team’s Spring Training complex in Florida and will head to St. Louis after experiencing abdominal pain, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Wainwright will see a specialist in St. Louis to diagnose the source of the injury. GM John Mozeliak said it would be incorrect to label the injury a sports hernia at this time. Wainwright said that he’s been feeling better each day, but seeing a specialist will give the team some further clarity.

  • The Cubs announced today that they have hired Manny Ramirez as a hitting consultant. Ramirez, who spent the 2014 season as a player-coach with Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate, will work with the Cubs’ Major League and Minor League players on the fundamental and mental aspects of hitting, according to a press release from the team.
  • Via ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers, commissioner Rob Manfred said yesterday that the investigation into the Cubs’ alleged tampering regarding their hiring of Joe Maddon will be resolved by Opening Day (Twitter link). The Cubs agreed to bring Maddon on as their new manager on a five-year deal just 10 days after he opted out of his contract with the Rays.
  • Corey Hart had other offers in free agency but welcomed the opportunity to return to the familiar setting of the NL Central when the Pirates made a one-year offer, he tells Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Hart admits that he also rushed back to action too quickly in 2014 after missing the entire 2013 season due to surgery on both of his knees. The fact that Pirates have morphed into one of the National League’s best teams over the past few seasons also played a role in his decision to select Pittsburgh’s offer.
  • The Pirates are drawing some influence from the NBA’s Golden State Warriors in determining how much to rest their stars this offseason, writes ESPN’s Jayson Stark. Manager Clint Hurdle said that an interesting article on how much the Warriors are resting their best players and how the on-court production has improved as a result Seeing the analysis was no accident, however, as GM Neal Huntington tells Stark that the Pirates are constantly studying successful teams in other sports to see if any trends or philosophies can carry over to baseball.

Francisco Rodriguez Expected To Sign Soon

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10:17pm: Barry Svrluga of The Washington Post (on Twitter) hears the Nats are not in on Rodriguez.

9:21pm: The there may also be a third team lurking when it comes to K-Rod and it might be the Nationals, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com writes.

11:04am: The Brewers and Marlins are both continuing to show interest in Francisco Rodriguez, and the right-hander is “expected to have a deal soon,” writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Rodriguez is arguably the top remaining arm on the relief market and is coming off a 3.04 ERA with 9.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 a 43.9 percent ground-ball rate and 44 saves with the Brewers in 2014. However, he also struggled with home runs, allowing 14 in just 68 innings. While that’s due primarily to a spike in his homer-to-flyball ratio that is unlikely to repeat itself, one can also understand why some clubs would be hesitant to commit significant money to someone who was that homer-prone in 2014.

The 33-year-old Rodriguez reportedly been seeking as much as $10MM for a one-year deal, and prior reports indicated that he was seeking a two-year pact (presumably at a lower annual value). The Marlins have shown interest on a two-year deal worth around $10MM total, and while they were said to be an unlikely landing spot for K-Rod by Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, Frisaro did note that there was a chance of a match if Rodriguez and agent Scott Boras lowered their asking price. It’s not known exactly where the Brewers’ level of financial comfort lies, but Boras has been talking with owner Mark Attanasio.

Spring Training is already underway, and Rodriguez is one of a few notable bullpen arms yet to latch on with a new team. Also on the market are Rafael Soriano, Phil Coke and Joe Beimel; Joba Chamberlain inked a new one-year deal with the Tigers earlier this morning.

West Notes: Giants, Coke, Rangers, Marte

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Despite all of their success, it’s not easy for the Giants to land free agents thanks to the tax rate in California, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News writes.  The top income tax rate in California is 13.3%, which is more than double the top tax rate in all but a handful of states with major league teams.  “It’s exponential when you get into the size of some of these numbers,” Sabean said. “It makes a difference.”  The Giants have had to build differently and a little more creatively than others, sometimes with some key moves in the summer, but it has worked out pretty well for them.  Here’s more from the West divisions..

  • The Rangers’ interest in lefty reliever Phil Coke has waned and the club doesn’t expect to sign the free agent reliever, a source tells Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram (via Twitter). The Rangers claimed a left-handed reliever earlier today when they plucked Edgar Olmos from the Mariners.  The Tigers apparently haven’t expressed much interest in a reunion and another spot in their ’pen was filled when they signed Joba Chamberlain.
  • If shortstop prospect Ketel Marte plays well enough to reach the big leagues this year, the Mariners’ willingness to move Brad Miller or Chris Taylor will increase in the coming months, if not sooner, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  One Mariners official compared Marte, a switch hitter, to a younger version of Jose Reyes.  He also has some second base experience, but he’s blocked there by Robinson Cano.
  • All of the Angels’ core relievers throw fastballs at an average speed of less than 92 mph, which means they’re basically ignoring baseball’s dogma about power arms in the bullpen, Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com writes.  Recently, the Angels have placed more of a premium on strike-throwing ability than velocity.
  • Trea Turner, who will be joining the Nationals as the player to be named later in the Wil Myers trade, is in camp with the Padres, Dennis Lin of U-T San Diego writes.  Lin checks in on Turner’s unusual camp experience as he is still more than three months away from joining the Nats.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Ortiz

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Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos says it’s easy to do business with A’s GM Billy Beane thanks to the rapport he has with him, MLB.com’s Mike Bauman writes.  “I have a pretty good relationship with Billy Beane,” Anthopoulos said. “We’ve done a bunch of small deals. The one thing about Billy, he’s always open-minded and you can never offend him; you can ask about anybody at any time to make a deal.”  The two execs got together in November for the deal that brought Josh Donaldson to Toronto.  Here’s more from the AL East..

  • When asked about David Ortiz’s future beyond 2015, Red Sox GM Ben Cherington said that “David knows he’s going to be a Red Sox [player] as long as he wants to be a Red Sox [player],” according to Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.  Cherington went on to explain that the two sides haven’t discussed his future recently.  This upcoming season will be the last guaranteed year of his deal and he’ll earn $16MM, the most money he has ever been paid in a single season.  With 425 plate appearances, his deal will vest for 2016 and he can increase his salary even further if he surpasses higher PA thresholds.
  • Everth Cabrera is likely to ink his deal with the Orioles on Wednesday, Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com writes. Cabrera agreed to a one-year, $2.4MM deal that could balloon to $3MM total if he hits certain incentives.
  • Rays star Evan Longoria says that he didn’t want manager Joe Maddon to leave the Rays but he believes that they will be better for it, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. “I just think there comes a time when it’s just the right time for somebody new,” Longoria said.
  • Earlier tonight, we rounded up today’s news on the Red Sox.

Red Sox Notes: Cherington, Lucchino, Moncada

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Despite the glut of outfielders the Red Sox have, GM Ben Cherington thinks it’s possible that all of them could still be with the organization when the season starts, Ian Browne of MLB.com writes. “Good chance,” said Cherington. “I think, as I said before, look, one of the things that we knew needed to be better was the sort of total output from the outfield in 2015. In order to win more games, we needed to get more out of the outfield — the whole team, but the outfield certainly was one area.”  There has been a great deal of speculation about Shane Victorino as a trade possibility, but publicly the Red Sox have repeatedly said that they’re willing to roll with the group they have, even if there aren’t enough spots to accommodate everyone.  More from Boston..

  • Though the news of Cherington’s extension didn’t come out until manager John Farrell got his new deal on Saturday, it actually happened eight or nine months ago, Browne writes.  Owner John Henry declined to discuss the length of the pact, however, only referring to it as a “long-term deal.”
  • Henry told reporters, including Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com, that Larry Lucchino is “in charge and continues to be in charge” of the organization.  Henry shot down reports of inner turmoil earlier this week as well when he spoke with Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
  • The Yankees probably had the biggest need for Yoan Moncada, the Dodgers probably had more money to offer, and the Padres offered a clearer path to playing time, but he is still a strong fit for the Red Sox’s plan, Ben Carsley of Just A Bit Outside writes.
  • With the Moncada signing, the Red Sox basically paid to get a No. 1 pick, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe writes.

AL Central Notes: Chamberlain, Coke, Gordon

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Joba Chamberlain’s new deal with the Tigers includes a pretty hard-to-reach incentive, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter): the reliever will get an additional $100K if he wins the Cy Young award.  Chamberlain, 29, will receive a $1MM base salary plus an additional $100K for reaching 35, 40, 45, 50 and 55 appearances.  The right-hander posted a 3.57 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9, and 53.2% groundball rate in 63 innings for the Tigers last year.  More from the AL Central..

  • Many expected that Phil Coke had a better chance of returning to the Tigers than Chamberlain, but that was apparently not the case, Jason Beck of MLB.com writes.  The Tigers have shown no signs of interest for Coke and although he has thrown for teams in San Diego recently, neither manager Brad Ausmus nor Tigers scouts had watched him as of a week ago.
  • Chris Iott of MLive.com looked at the multiple implications of Chamberlain signing with the Tigers.  The pact, among other things, gives the bullpen depth and also insurance for Bruce Rondon as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery.  Detroit expects Rondon to be their main seventh-inning guy, but if he’s not good to go for some reason, the Tigers could turn to the newly-acquired Chamberlain or Al Alburquerque.
  • A lot of fuss has been made over Royals outfielder Alex Gordon and his player option for 2016, but it doesn’t sound like he’s all that distracted by it.  “[I] don’t think about it,” Gordon said, according to Jeffrey Flanagan (on Twitter) “The only time I think about it is when you guys ask me.”  Last August, Gordon told reporters he intended to exercise his $13.25MM player option for the 2016 season but now he’s not so sure.

Latest On Cliff Lee

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The Rangers and Padres were among teams to at least “kick the tires” on Phillies starter Cliff Lee earlier this winter, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  Of course, the Padres have since signed James Shields to a four-year, $75MM deal, which probably means that they won’t be making a play for Lee or teammate Cole Hamels.  The Rangers have also added to their pitching depth this offseason.

Meanwhile, Heyman believes that Lee would be a solid fit for the Red Sox as their own talks on Hamels seem to have stalled.  Boston won’t part with either catching prospect Blake Swihart or second baseman/outfielder Mookie Betts to pry Hamels away, but a Lee deal could get done with lesser assets.

A deal for Lee could even include former fan favorite Shane Victorino as Heyman hears the Phillies wouldn’t mind a reunion.  The Red Sox can certainly part with the Flyin’ Hawaiian given their crowded outfield, even though they’re pushing the idea that he’ll start Opening Day if he’s healthy.

While there haven’t been any known talks between the two teams regarding Lee, the BoSox do have an affinity for him and they’ve seemingly had interest since he joined Philly as a free agent.

“He’s hard not to like,” one Red Sox person told Heyman.

However, another Boston official characterized the Lee possibility to Heyman as a “long shot” since he still has to prove his health.  On the other hand, it’s well known that Lee wants to play for a winner and his track record of pitching in the American League could appeal to the Red Sox.

Outside of the Red Sox, Heyman posits that the Cardinals are a team that would seem to fit since they weren’t all that aggressive in adding pitching and they’d be almost local for the Little Rock, Ark. resident.

Lee is owed $25MM for the coming season and can be controlled for another year through a $27.5MM option that comes with a hefty $12.5MM buyout.  Prior to his 2014 elbow trouble, Lee boasted a streak of six straight seasons with 200+ innings.  Over that stretch, he carried a 2.89 ERA with 8.1 K/9 against just 1.3 BB/9.  The 36-year-old (37 in August) has a no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to twenty teams per year.

NL West Notes: Shields, Hatcher, Quentin, Ethier

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Some might be worried about James Shields’ mileage catching up to him but Padres GM A.J. Preller doesn’t agree with that assessment, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com writes.

“You say, ’OK, eight years with 200 innings pitched,’ and you can look at it both ways,” said Preller. “We debated it when we were talking about James, and obviously we’re betting that there are quite a few more years of that left…When you study it, there’s nothing definitive that says, ’Once you turn 33 and have a certain amount of innings, that’s the end of the day.’ You look up and see guys — whether it’s Tim Hudson or Mark Buehrle or a lot of guys — and they’re still doing it. We think with James’ makeup and athleticism, he’s going to be a guy who’ll take the ball for us the next four years in San Diego.”

Here’s more from the NL West..

  • Reliever Chris Hatcher was more than a throw-in in the trade that sent Dee Gordon, Miguel Rojas and Dan Haren to the Marlins, Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com writes. “He was a guy we targeted,” Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi said. “To start off the season, he may be even more important than we anticipated.”  The 29-year-old converted catcher has less than 90 big league innings on his odometer, meaning that he won’t be arbitration eligible until 2017.
  • Padres veteran Carlos Quentin is trying out first base and that could give rival teams an opportunity to evaluate him and possibly get the ball rolling on a trade, Dennis Lin of U-T San Diego writes.  “It can increase value as a player to have versatility,” Quentin said. “It gives (the Padres) an idea of how I might fit in here, possibly. It gives other teams an idea of how I might fit in there. It can only be a good thing.”  Quentin also reiterated his openness to waiving his no-trade clause to move to an AL team.
  • Andre Ethier, who wants to start in 2015 whether it’s for the Dodgers or another team, doesn’t see himself as a threat to take the starting job away from Joc Pederson in center field. “I just don’t think that’s where I’m best suited to play every day,” said Ethier, according to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register. “If you’re 33 you get moved out of center field. You don’t get moved to center field. For me to say all of a sudden, I’m going to be an option in center field that’s a far reach and a far stretch.”

Cardinals To Sign Carlos Villanueva To Minors Deal

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FEBRUARY 24th: Villanueva will earn $2MM if he reaches the majors, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter).

FEBRUARY 4th: The Cardinals have reached a minor league pact with righty Carlos Villanueva, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports on Twitter. Villanueva will receive an invitation to big league camp.

The 31-year-old swingman spent the past two seasons with the Cubs, working to a cumulative 4.27 ERA over 206 1/3 innings (including twenty starts) with 7.6 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9. Though he was hit hard when working from the rotation last year, Villanueva held opposing hitters to a .226/.284/.364 slash in 237 plate appearances when pitching from the bullpen.

Villanueva looks to be a solid depth addition to a Cardinals staff that has plenty of talent, but also some important questions. It seems unlikely that he will crack the rotation out of camp, but could have a reasonable claim to a long-man/spot-starter role.

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