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Archives for February 2016

Quick Hits: Alexei Bell, Worst Moves, Prospects

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Cuban outfielder Alexei Bell recently held a showcase in Mexico, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. The 32-year-old has long been a prominent player on his home island, and recently departed in search for an opportunity in the majors. Thirteen MLB clubs sent someone to watch his workout, per Rosenthal: the D-Backs, Dodgers, Phillies, Royals, Blue Jays, Giants, Yankees, Marlins, Cardinals, A’s, Red Sox, Padres, and Reds.

Here are a few analytical links to consider as camp opens:

  • Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has rounded up the ten worst offseason transactions to go with his prior list of the ten best. The top spot on each list involves the same swap. He also issues demerits for the Rockies’ signing of Gerardo Parra and subsequent trade of Corey Dickerson, the Royals’ decision to give big money to Ian Kennedy, and the Orioles’ re-signing of Chris Davis.
  • You can find Baseball America’s updated listing of the ten best prospects for each team right here. Looking past the premium names that appear on league-wide lists gives a better sense of the depth of a system, of course, and quite a few players will ascend over the coming year. BA’s J.J. Cooper examines some of the top names that fell just shy of that outlet’s top-100 list.
  • ESPN.com’s Keith Law has also provided a top-ten list for every organization’s farm, with a narrative breakdown of the system as well. It’s well worth a read, but does require an Insider subscription.

2016 Draft & International Pool Changes By Team

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Baseball America’s Hudson Belinsky reports that draft and international spending pools will rise by about 4.6 percent in total for the 2016 Rule 4 Draft in June and the 2016-17 international signing period, which kicks off on July 2. Belinsky provides total draft and international pools for all 30 clubs, with the Reds ranking first in terms of draft bonus pool at $13.923MM and the Phillies laying claim to the top international pool by virtue of finishing with the league’s worst record in 2015.

2016 Draft Pool Changes

For MLBTR purposes, I’ve compiled quick references highlighting the year-to-year changes in each club’s draft and international spending pools, although it’s important to stress that the draft pools are still highly subject to change; Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo all remain unsigned and will all require a club to forfeit its top unprotected pick upon signing, while the Nationals, Cubs and Rangers will all receive comp picks in exchange for those losses (Links to draft changes table and to international changes table for mobile app users).

Notably, that means that the Orioles’ current projection of a $10.457MM bonus pool is likely due for a precipitous decline, as the team has been rumored to be nearing a deal with Gallardo for nearly a week. While the exact value of the No. 14 overall pick that Baltimore would surrender isn’t known, last year’s 14th overall selection carried a value of $2,842,400. A 4.6 percent increase in that figure — the number referenced by Belinsky — would result in a slot value of $2,973,150. That figure would completely negate Baltimore’s $2.78MM pool increase, and the O’s could stand to incur further draft losses if they complete a deal with Gallardo and go on to pursue Fowler, as has been rumored. Baltimore’s second pick, No. 29 overall, would rise to 28th overall in the event that a deal with Gallardo is completed. Again, based on last year’s $1.975MM value for that slot and a 4.6 percent increase, the Orioles would stand to lose $2.066MM in draft money, bringing their total loss in the event of those rumored signings to $5.039MM — roughly 48 percent of their overall pool.

While the Reds have the largest draft pool overall, it’s the Padres who saw the largest increase in their draft spending potential, as the team received compensatory picks for the departures of both Ian Kennedy and Justin Upton in addition to winning the first pick in Competitive Balance Round B, which sits at No. 71 overall. As Belinsky points out, that gives San Diego six picks in the top 85 of the upcoming draft (so long as the club does not sign one of the aforementioned free agents, which indeed appears unlikely).

Conversely, no team has seen as swift of a fall in its draft spending potential as the Astros, who went from an enormous bonus pool of more than $17MM to a more standard pool of $5.866MM. (Last year, Houston picked second, fifth and 37th overall in the draft, thus creating the record-setting bonus pool.) The D-backs lost more than $8MM in pool money due to the fact that they dropped from the No. 1 overall pick to the No. 16 pick and subsequently forfeited the pick anyway to add Zack Greinke.

The Cubs punted a pair of picks to sign Jason Heyward and John Lackey, though they’ll see a notable bump back up the rankings when they receive a comp pick after Fowler signs (that comp pick between the first and second rounds will be eliminated due to the Heyward/Lackey signings, but Chicago’s second-round pick will then be restored, adding about $920K to its pool). Similarly, the Nats and Rangers will each see their draft allotments jump north of $7MM once Desmond and Gallardo sign.

2016 International Changes

Meanwhile, the Phillies enjoy the largest increase in baseball on the international side of the equation, although the size of their pool could be rendered moot if the team exceeds its cap by a wide enough margin. Philadelphia is reportedly planning to be aggressive, and if the team plans to incur significant penalties, then the only real gain from the top pool is a bit of a break on luxury taxation. As such, if the Phils plan to shatter the pool anyhow, they could actually trade away slots. Counter-intuitive as it may seem, if they’re incurring maximum penalty anyhow, the slots would hold more valuable to a team that isn’t planning to do incur penalties, and the only loss for the Phillies would be more money.

The fact that the Reds are set to receive the third-largest increase again brings to light the team’s curious ties to Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez in January. Reds president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty denied that a deal was in place at the time that news of a $6MM signing bonus from Cincinnati to Rodriguez broke, and the team has yet to announce a deal. However, if Cincinnati does indeed come to terms with Rodriguez for that sum, it would prevent the team from signing a player for more than $300K in either the 2016-17 signing period or the 2017-18 signing period, thus mitigating the advantage of their notable pool increase. Instead, the Reds would likely trade away their international bonus slots this summer, and while that money can indeed be a deal-sweetener when talking with other clubs, international slots on their own haven’t been traded for much in the way of high-profile prospect capital. Straight-up swaps for international money have previously involved players such as Aaron Kurcz and Garrett Fulenchek. While some of the players in these deals could prove to be solid pieces in the long run, giving $6MM to Rodriguez would mean that the Reds elected to exceed their pool well after the top talent on this year’s international class had signed. Beyond that, they’d be doing it so by signing a limited number of players — highlighted by a defensively gifted but light-hitting shortstop — instead of taking a bulk approach and acquiring multiple prospects in next year’s class.

Looking to other clubs that have incurred maximum penalties, the Royals, Dodgers and Giants are all in roughly the spot in which they entered the 2015-16 period, but those slots will be used as trade fodder this summer after their significant international expenditures over the past seven and a half months. The Yankees, Rays, D-backs, Angels and Red Sox all look like reasonable candidates to trade away the majority of their international slots this coming signing period as well due to the fact that each team incurred maximum penalties in the 2014-15 signing period.

Latest On Ian Desmond

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Players are beginning to report to Spring Training, but Ian Desmond remains one of three free agents left on the market that is tied to draft-pick compensation. According to the latest report from FOX’s Ken Rosenthal, the White Sox and Rays have both had recent contact with Desmond, and the Rockies, too, have been in touch with his representatives. It’s not clear whether Colorado reached out to Desmond’s camp or vice versa, nor is the severity of the Rockies’ interest known at this time. Rosenthal does, however, note that any pursuit of Desmond would perhaps unsurprisingly be heavily dependent on commissioner Rob Manfred’s course of action in disciplining incumbent shortstop Jose Reyes, who seems likely to be suspended due to his offseason domestic violence charges (though Reyes did plead not guilty last month). Reyes has a trial set for April 4, though Rosenthal notes that Manfred seems likely to act before that time, as that date lies after Opening Day.

As Rosenthal points out, the Rockies wouldn’t pay Reyes for any length of time for which he is suspended, and their No. 4 overall draft pick is protected, meaning that Desmond would require the forfeiture of the Rockies’ No. 38 overall selection, instead. From Desmond’s standpoint, it would seem like Coors Field is an optimal place to attempt to rebuild his value on a one-year deal, although it’s at least worth noting that teams can, in some cases, be wary of a player’s production at altitude (though it’s worth noting that some research has suggested that players who call Coors Field home are negatively impacted in terms of road performance). The Rockies do have an alternative to Reyes in the form of well-regarded shortstop prospect Trevor Story, though Story, of course, isn’t MLB tested at this point.

While the Rays and White Sox have spoken with Desmond, Rosenthal hears that the Rays aren’t likely to part with the 13th overall pick to sign him, and the White Sox are more focused on finding an outfielder on the trade market than they are on Desmond. Chicago does have one of the game’s top prospects, Tim Anderson, nearing the Major Leagues, and he could step into their shortstop vacancy this season, with defensive standout Tyler Saladino manning the position until that time.

The Rockies make some sense for Desmond, on paper anyway, if they plan to take a shot at contending this season, and the rest of their offseason dealings suggest that they do. Colorado has added Jake McGee, Jason Motte and Chad Qualls to its bullpen while also signing Gerardo Parra to a three-year deal. The Rockies seem like a long shot to contend in what should be a much-improved NL West, although the club’s offense should be potent and the bullpen stands to serve as a much more productive unit, especially if closer Adam Ottavino can contribute a half-season or so worth of innings once he is recovered from Tommy John. Starting pitching, of course, is the elephant in the room when looking at the Rockies, although if things go south, the team can always seek to trade Desmond in the event that he further distances himself from last season’s dreadful first half. Desmond did rebound with a .262/.331/.446 slash in the second half last year, and a few solid months of production could make him an appealing target to teams seeking midseason upgrades to their middle infield.

Mets Notes: Mejia, Bullpen, Edgin, De Aza

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Jenrry Mejia’s stunning lifetime suspension for failing a third PED test is still fresh on the minds of most Mets fans, and Ken Davidoff of the New York Post runs down some of the intricacies of the Joint Drug Agreement’s ban. As Davidoff notes, Mejia remains property of the Mets and will gain Major League service time even though he is suspended. As such, the Mets will have to officially non-tender Mejia next offseason. Mejia is banned for at least two years, but he can apply for reinstatement after one year. Reinstatement seems unlikely, and as Davidoff notes, both the Korea Baseball Organization and Nippon Professional Baseball honor MLB disciplinary measures, so Mejia isn’t likely to latch on overseas, either. He could play independent ball if the Mets grant him permission, and as Davidoff notes, the Mets may feel no reason to prevent him from doing so.

Here’s the latest on the Mets…

  • Jon Heyman tweets that the Mets still “have [their] eyes open” for bullpen help in the wake of Mejia’s suspension. Presently, Addison Reed, Hansel Robles and Erik Goeddel are poised to serve as right-handed setup options for closer Jeurys Familia, while Antonio Bastardo, Jerry Blevins and Sean Gilmartin are all in the mix as options from the left side.
  • Lefty Josh Edgin, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, is aiming for a May 1 return, tweets MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. While that return will, of course, be largely dependent on how his rehab progresses this spring and throughout the month of April, Edgin would give the Mets a quality fourth option as a left-hander. Edgin logged a 1.32 ERA in 27 1/3 innings for the Mets in 2014 and looked poised to be a key ’pen member going forward prior to his injury.
  • The re-signing of Yoenis Cespedes essentially made Alejandro De Aza a superfluous fifth outfielder for the Mets, but the team has no plans to attempt to trade him right now, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. Clearly, a trade of De Aza would represent a rare occurrence, as a player that signs as a free agent must give his consent to being traded before June 15. However, De Aza would “almost certainly” consent to a deal now that he’s in line for a dramatically diminished role to the one he thought he was signing up for when he took the Mets’ one-year, $5.75MM offer earlier this winter. The Mets want to make sure that each of Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson and Cespedes make it through Spring Training without injury before dealing De Aza, though, Rosenthal notes. Additionally, he points out that the presence of David Murphy, Will Venable and Matt Joyce on the free-agent market also makes a trade unlikely, as teams have similar alternatives on the open market. I’d further add that injuries are likely to pop up around the rest of the league and could leave a team that doesn’t stand out as a current fit as a suitor down the line.

Free Agent Spending Trends: Pitching vs. Hitting

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With the bulk of this offseason’s free-agent spending complete, I thought it might be interesting to look back at some spending trends over the last several free-agent periods. There was a big jump in overall spending in 2013-14, and the market has continued to grow since. While the total spend decreased last year, AAV continued to rise, and we’re headed for new records in both total outlay and dollars per year this winter.

One interesting aspect of the 2015-16 market, of course, has been the general success experienced by pitchers. While several notable bats have come in under expectations, pitching flew off the shelves and still seems in demand. True, Yovani Gallardo has yet to sign, but reports suggest he could still be in line for over $40MM. It’s not clear the same can be said for fellow qualifying-offer-bound hitters Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler, each of whom came into the winter with greater anticipated earning power than Gallardo.

So, how have spending patterns shifted over the past three years? Let’s go to the data. (For what it’s worth, I tried to break things down further, but was ultimately uncomfortable with the lines I would’ve been forced to draw between, say, relievers and starters or infielders and outfielders.)

pitchers vs hitters last 3 years table

(Image link for mobile app users..)

Clearly, there’s a shift in results. Let’s take a look at a few of the key figures across the three-year period, in graph form. To begin, we have witnessed a major swing in the total outlay made to pitchers as opposed to hitters:

pitchers vs hitters last 3 years total spend

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Free-agent pitchers have posted some notable gains by other measures, too. Consider the average length of contract:

pitchers vs hitters last 3 years avg years

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There’s also been a bump in AAV that closed down a gap that existed at the start of the period in question:

pitchers vs hitters last 3 years AAV

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It’s possible that this is simply a straightforward reflection of the quality of the players available. Let’s have a look at the pitchers who were able to command $30MM+ overall commitments (that includes posting fees, where applicable):

2013-14

Masahiro Tanaka ($175MM), Ubaldo Jimenez ($50MM), Matt Garza ($50MM), Ricky Nolasco ($49MM), Jason Vargas ($32MM), Scott Feldman ($30MM)

2014-15

Max Scherzer ($210MM), Jon Lester ($155MM), James Shields ($75MM), Ervin Santana ($55MM), Brandon McCarthy ($48MM), David Robertson ($46MM), Francisco Liriano ($39MM), Andrew Miller ($36MM)

2015-16

David Price ($217MM), Zack Greinke ($206.5MM), Johnny Cueto ($130MM), Jordan Zimmermann ($110MM), Jeff Samardzija ($90MM), Mike Leake ($80MM), Wei-Yin Chen ($80MM), Ian Kennedy ($70MM), Scott Kazmir ($48MM), Kenta Maeda ($45MM), J.A. Happ ($36MM), John Lackey ($32MM), Darren O’Day ($31MM)

And here’s what that looks like in table form, to get a visual sense of the impact this volume and quality of players may have had on driving salary.

pitchers vs hitters last 3 years pitching contracts 30 plus

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It’s possible that some of the inclination toward pitching is the result of an imbalance between the volume and quality of hitting versus pitching prospects entering the game right now. Fangraphs’ Jeff Zimmerman wrote a couple of years ago about the shifting aging curve for batters, and that could play a role in the trend as well. Alternatively, the increased demand for arms could be attributable to the very thing (enhanced injury risk) that makes them such a risky investment in the first place.

Red Sox Sign Carlos Marmol To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox announced today that they’ve signed right-hander Carlos Marmol to a minor league deal with an invite to Major League Spring Training. He’ll compete for a spot alongside Koji Uehara and Carson Smith as a right-handed setup option for Craig Kimbrel.

Marmol, 33, made a name for himself as the Cubs’ closer from 2009-12, posting gaudy strikeout numbers that helped to cover up highly suspect control. In that stretch, Marmol saved 107 games and recorded a 3.33 ERA with 12.9 K/9 but a woeful 6.7 BB/9 rate. As Marmol’s strikeout rate dipped, so too did his effectiveness. Marmol averaged a sky-high 7.3 walks per nine innings in 2012 and repeated that number in a 2013 season that was split between the Cubs and Dodgers. His last Major League action came in 2014, when he tossed 13 1/3 innings with the Marlins. That season, Marmol yielded an 8.10 ERA and posted a 14-to-10 K/BB ratio before the club cut ties with him.

Marmol spent the 2015 season with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate, where he posted a brilliant 2.03 ERA in 31 innings but showed the same control issues that have plagued him throughout his career, walking 27 batters in those 31 frames (albeit, against an impressive 48 strikeouts). The problem continued in the Dominican Winter League, where he walked a dozen hitters in seven innings. It’s unlikely that he’ll ever take a meaningful step forward in terms of control, but Marmol’s penchant for missing bats means he’ll likely continue to get opportunities, at least as a depth option.

Mariners Sign Joel Peralta To Minors Deal

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FEBRUARY 16: Peralta can earn a hefty $2.5MM in incentives, Heyman tweets.

FEBRUARY 9, 5:21pm: Jon Heyman reports that Peralta’s contract comes with a $1.25MM base salary, should he make the club (Twitter link). That figure can increase based on performance incentives.

1:02pm: The Mariners have signed veteran righty Joel Peralta to a minor league deal, per a club announcement. A client of Mark Gilling, he will receive an invitation to Major League camp.

Peralta will be entering his age-40 season after a subpar campaign with the Dodgers in which he battled through shoulder and neck issues. He ended with a 4.34 ERA over just 29 frames with 7.4 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9. Peralta has never induced many groundballs, which continued last year, and he struggled to prevent the long ball (1.86 HR/9, 14.6% home run per flyball rate).

That marked a significant downturn from his prior years’ efforts. Dating back to a breakout 2010, in which he emerged as a quality pen piece for the Nationals at 34 years of age, Peralta averaged a 3.34 ERA (with an identical 3.34 FIP) and 9.7 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 for a five-year stretch.

If there’s hope for a return to that lofty standard, it may lie in the fact that Peralta has never been reliant upon velocity and still works with something close to the same average fastball speed that allowed him to succeed previously. By measure of Pitch F/X pitch values, the veteran’s heater and splitter remain quality offerings, with his curveball turning suddenly into a huge negative. If that can be fixed, then perhaps he reverse a sharp drop in his swinging strike rate (from 11.7% to 7.9%, year over year).

A glance at the incredible Brooks Baseball database shows some inconsistency in the breaker. Peralta’s release speed on the hook was much lower than usual to start the year, with the offering losing a bit of vertical movement as he increased his arm action. It is worth noting that Peralta allowed just two earned runs in his final ten frames, including one postseason appearance, while logging a dozen strikeouts without permitting a free pass.

If nothing else, Peralta provides some depth — if not some upside as well — to a re-worked Mariners pen. As ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark notes on Twitter, he joins Steve Cishek, Joaquin Benoit, Justin DeFratus, Evan Scribner, and others in a unit that lost players like Fernando Rodney (free agency), Carson Smith (trade), and Tom Wilhelmsen (trade).

Koji Uehara: No Current Plans To Retire

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Red Sox reliever Koji Uehara said today that he has no current plans for retirement, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports (links to Twitter). He added that his surgically-repaired wrist is doing well and hasn’t prevented him from beginning a throwing program.

Though he’s coming off of injury, entering the final year of his contract, and set to turn 41 the day before Opening Day, Uehara indicated that he still has an open-ended timeline ahead of him. “I will keep pitching unless I am terrible and no team wants me,” Uehara said with a laugh.

Ultimately, Uehara has every confidence in his ability to perform into his fifth decade. “Age is a number,” he said. “Bring me a present that day.” On the whole, the statistics certainly support that (brilliantly-stated) attitude from the Japanese star.

Outside a bit of a rough stretch last June, Uehara put up a strong overall campaign after signing a two-year, $18MM deal just before the start of 2014-15 free agency. He ended the year with a 2.23 ERA over 40 1/3 innings, with 10.5 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9. That K:BB ratio fell well below his typical rate — which has paced the rest of the league by a comical margin. But he still fell within the top twenty pen men in the game by that measure as well as by K%-BB%.

Boston won’t be asking quite as much from the standout veteran this year as it has in the past, as Craig Kimbrel is set to move into the closer’s role. But he’s still a key piece of the pen, and continued dominance from both of those pitchers could give the club one of the game’s best late-inning combos. Of course, this season will also set Uehara’s trajectory as he nears open-market eligibility for the offseason to come.

Astros Avoid Arbitration With Evan Gattis

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The Astros have reached a deal to avoid arbitration with slugger Evan Gattis, according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). Gattis will be guaranteed $3.4MM in the deal, Drellich tweets, but $100K of that comes in the form of a buyout for a $5.2MM club option for the 2017 campaign.

Gattis was a first-time arb-eligible player this year, so the contract does not impact his free-agent timeline. The sides had been set for a hearing this afternoon, but that won’t be necessary after agreeing to terms. Gattis had filed at $3.8MM, with Houston countering at $3MM. Entering the offseason, MLBTR projected the bat-first ballplayer to take home $3.4MM — which turned out to be the final agreed-upon value.

The settlement represents a creative solution. For Houston, there’s some nice cost-saving potential build into this arrangement. Gattis has put up 49 home runs over the past two seasons, and that kind of power output could lead to a big raise through the arb process. While he now locks in a ceiling on his 2017 earning capacity without getting any promises that he’ll be tendered, Gattis has insured against any injury or performance issues this spring by securing what appears to be a fully-guaranteed deal. (Arb agreements are only partially guaranteed unless otherwise provided.)

Both player and team will hope for a more well-rounded effort in the coming season. The 29-year-old swatted a career-best 27 long balls last year, but saw his overall output drop to a disappointing .246/.285/.463 slash over 604 plate appearances. For a player that spent the vast majority of his time in a DH role, that’s not quite enough production. Though Gattis did suffer from a low .264 BABIP, that figure was explained in part by the fact that he made less hard contact and had a higher infield fly rate in 2015 than he had previously. The slow-footed former catcher also put the ball on the ground more frequently.

Of course, Gattis will first have to work his way back from hernia surgery. He’s not expected to miss much time, if any, but it will put him on the back foot to start the spring and may have played a role in his decision to take Houston up on this contractual arrangement rather than rolling the dice on a hearing.

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