Archives for 2016

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLBTR Mailbag

By Steve Adams | September 26, 2016 at 11:12pm CDT

Last week’s edition of the MLBTR Mailbag saw Jeff Todd field questions about the Jonathan Lucroy trade, the Phillies’ hopes in 2017, the Yankees’ offseason and park-adjusted/context-neutral metrics such as wRC+ and OPS+.

If you have a question on the upcoming offseason, free agency, the playoff race, Cy Young/MVP/Rookie of the Year voting or anything else and would like to hear MLBTR’s take, let us know: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. We can’t get to every question, of course, but we’ll try to diversify the teams/subject matter as best we can. If you miss out on having your question answered, remember that you can always ask during one of our three weekly live chats — Tuesday at 2pm CT with myself, Wednesday at 6:30pm with Jason Martinez and/or Thursday at 2pm with Jeff. Mailbag questions are welcome throughout the week, so feel free to send them in at any time.

Quick Hits: Britton, Harper, Ramos, Bregman, McCullers, Rasmus, Abad

By Jeff Todd | September 26, 2016 at 10:53pm CDT

Orioles closer Zach Britton has turned in a season to remember, and it’s not all that surprising given his recent excellence. Still, it wasn’t long ago that such a showing seemed highly improbable, as Danny Knobler of Bleacher Report writes. Britton was no lock to make the O’s roster out of camp in 2014, but the refinement of his unbelievable power sinker that year has turned the southpaw into arguably the game’s most dominant reliever. Knobler takes an interesting look at Britton’s transformation as a pitcher, as well as his earlier path toward the majors.

Here are a few more stray notes from around the game:

Nationals star Bryce Harper suffered a thumb injury that caused some concern, but manager Dusty Baker said tonight that X-rays were negative, as Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com reports (Twitter links). Washington is suddenly facing a variety of significant health concerns as it readies for the NLDS, though at least in Harper’s case the prognosis seems promising. Catcher Wilson Ramos is a new concern after leaving tonight’s game following a play at the plate. He’s due for an MRI tomorrow, the results of which could have huge implications for both the team and his coming run through free agency.
Burgeoning Astros infielder Alex Bregman could be back sooner than expected after a “leap forward” in his recovery from a hamstring strain, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports. Indeed, he could appear as soon as this week. While the timetable isn’t quite as promising for righty Lance McCullers Jr., he might be ready to go for the postseason if Houston can sneak in. Meanwhile, there’s said to be little chance that outfielder Colby Rasmus will return to uniform before qualifying for free agency.
It’s possible that Red Sox deadline addition Fernando Abad won’t even crack the team’s postseason roster, as Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reports. The veteran southpaw has largely been quite good against opposing lefties since coming to Boston, but he has still coughed nine earned runs with a dozen strikeouts and eight walks in his 12 2/3 innings of work. Though nothing has been decided, manager John Farrell did acknowledge that the club is assessing both Abad and rookie lefty Robby Scott for the postseason pen. Scott, 27, has just six MLB appearances on his ledger, though he has yet to allow a run.

Wilson Ramos Departs Game With Leg Injury

By Jeff Todd | September 26, 2016 at 8:44pm CDT

The Nationals are holding their collective breath after seeing Wilson Ramos land awkwardly on a play at the plate. The big catcher was helped off of the field with an apparent right leg injury.

It’s far too soon to know whether the injury is a serious one, but it comes at an awful time for player and team. Washington is preparing for a postseason run in early October, while Ramos is not only playing to help the team but also to set up his free agent market after the year.

Washington is not particularly well-equipped to deal with any missed time from Ramos, who has carried a big load this year. Switch-hitting reserve Jose Lobaton has taken just 104 plate appearances, with a decent but unexciting .220/.317/.363 slash. Intriguing prospect Pedro Severino has shown well in his 11 game stint, but his Triple-A numbers don’t suggest that he’s ready for a regular role.

Meanwhile, the 29-year-old Ramos has already logged 130 games for the Nats entering tonight’s action. He has been nothing short of outstanding, finally realizing his talent fully. In 520 plate appearances, Ramos owns a .307/.354/.497 slash with 22 long balls.

That output has Ramos primed to hit the open market with a chance to take his pick from a wide variety of suitors. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently ranked him fifth in earning power among pending free agents, with Ramos standing out as the top catcher available.

Rubby De La Rosa To Undergo Stem Cell Treatment In Bid To Avoid Tommy John

By Jeff Todd | September 26, 2016 at 8:27pm CDT

Diamondbacks righty Rubby De La Rosa will receive a stem cell injection tomorrow, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports on Twitter. The hope is that the treatment will allow him to stave off what would be a second Tommy John procedure.

De La Rosa’s rehab has been something of a rollercoaster: he was able to return briefly, then seemed destined to be shut down, and then seemed like he might be headed back to the major league mound by the end of the season. Now, the situation seems a fair bit more dire than had previously been suggested.

Stem cell and other alternatives to surgery have increasingly been utilized by pitchers hoping to reinforce, rather than replace, their ulnar collateral ligaments. The risk of a TJ procedure failing to produce the desired results is heightened significantly in the case of a second trip under the knife, so the stakes are high in De La Rosa’s case.

Given the timing, a TJ procedure in the near-term would clearly keep De La Rosa out for all of 2017. Second-time UCL replacement recipients tend to take longer to make it all the way back, though he’d at least be reasonably likely to make it back for ’18.

De La Rosa is due a raise — though it won’t be a large one — on his $2.35MM arbitration salary. He’s set for free agency before the start of the 2019 campaign, so the next two campaigns are the final ones of team control for Arizona.

All said, then, there’s a lot riding on De La Rosa’s ability to return. Over his 50 2/3 innings this year, he worked to a useful 4.26 ERA and also showed quite a bit of promise with a rising 9.6 K/9. That makes De La Rosa a critical part of the D-Backs’ rotation picture.

Yankees Outright J.R. Graham

By Steve Adams | September 26, 2016 at 6:49pm CDT

The Yankees announced this afternoon that they’ve outrighted reliever J.R. Graham to Triple-A, thus removing the 26-year-old right-hander from the 40-man roster.

New York claimed Graham off waivers from the Twins earlier this year after Minnesota designated the 2014 Rule 5 Draft pick for assignment. Graham stuck in the Twins’ bullpen all throughout the 2015 campaign, with manager Paul Molitor typically reserving him for low-leverage situations. Graham wound up logging 63 2/3 innings of 4.95 ERA ball and averaged 7.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 to go along with a 49 percent ground-ball rate. However, he was also quite homer-prone in his rookie campaign and struggled to strand runners. The former Braves top prospect tossed just 1 2/3 innings in the Majors this season and spent the majority of the year with the Yankees’ Double-A affiliate. All told, he logged a 3.27 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 in 44 innings across three minor league levels.

Marlins To Retire #16 In Honor Of Jose Fernandez

By Jeff Todd | September 26, 2016 at 5:21pm CDT

As baseball mourns the untimely loss of one of its brightest lights, 24-year-old pitcher Jose Fernandez, the Marlins will retire the number 16 in his honor, owner Jeffrey Loria told reporters including Craig Davis of the Sun-Sentinel (Twitter link).

That’s certainly just one of the many tributes that will continue to be unveiled over the coming days and long into the future. The Marlins cancelled yesterday’s scheduled game, and all the team’s players will wear Fernandez’s #16 in tonight’s ballgame at Marlins Park.

Most anyone with even a passing interest in baseball is familiar with Fernandez’s pitching greatness, personal vivacity, and remarkable path to the United States and Major League Baseball. It remains difficult to accept that he is gone.

In trying to come to terms with Fernandez’s death, we would do well to remember how he lived. His joy seemed to outweigh his talent, and that is truly saying something. Many wise and good words have already been written on this somber matter, but I would recommend in particular this touching piece from Dave Cameron of Fangraphs, which well explains why Fernandez’s tragic passing represents such a singular loss.

RIP, Jose.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Three Needs: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | September 26, 2016 at 3:19pm CDT

With many needs to address, the White Sox added Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie, and others during the 2015-16 offseason. However, the Sox again failed to reach a .500 record, which they last achieved in 2012. They’re the next non-contending club up in MLBTR’s Three Needs series.

1. Put loyalty aside and install the best possible front office and manager. Kenny Williams has been a part of Chicago’s front office since current shortstop Tim Anderson was a toddler, and Rick Hahn joined the organization more than 15 years ago. The current arrangement, with Williams serving as Executive Vice President and Hahn as Senior Vice President/General Manager, has been in place for four years. None of those four Sox teams won more games than they lost. Even if we give the front office a pass for doing tempered rebuilds for a couple of years, they still had two failed winters of making win-now pushes. The team’s short- and long-term prospects don’t seem much different than they were four years ago. It’s time for White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf to put aside his loyalty to the Williams/Hahn tandem, and determine whether the White Sox would benefit from fresh voices in the front office. If Reinsdorf does decide to dismiss or reassign one or both of Williams and Hahn, he’d do well to more clearly define the balance of power and autonomy of his executives. In August, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reported that Hahn was more in favor of a trade deadline sale than was Reinsdorf, with Hahn later denying any discord.

Manager Robin Ventura has held his position even longer than Hahn, with his fifth season as manager (and his contract) coming to an end. Even if the front office remains unaltered, Ventura may be allowed to leave. First baseman Jose Abreu recently suggested the White Sox lacked the same desire to win as the Royals, which could be the final nail in the coffin for Ventura.

2. Go all-in on an organizational strategy. It appears that Reinsdorf, Williams, and Hahn have already charted a clear offseason course, one Hahn said will be “obvious” after their “first or second transaction.” Those reading the tea leaves generally feel those comments point toward a rebuild. While a true “everything must go” rebuild has rarely been Reinsdorf’s preference, the Sox remain stuck in no man’s land, with just enough talent to win 73-78 games annually. If they believe in the people conducting a full teardown (see point #1), perhaps White Sox fans actually would accept and encourage two or three seasons during which the team has zero chance of contending. If it’s any level of rebuild, the White Sox have to trade Frazier, Melky Cabrera, and Miguel Gonzalez, who are controlled through 2017. It would be logical to unload the well-compensated David Robertson (signed through 2018), and to trade or non-tender Lawrie and Avisail Garcia. James Shields should be released. All of those steps would mark a fairly obvious start to a rebuild, but would fail to bring in any blue-chip talent.

Stopping there while retaining the team’s truly coveted pieces would constitute another half-measure. The White Sox control ace starter Chris Sale through 2019. If 2017 and 2018 are looking bleak, then now’s the time to cash Sale in for a king’s ransom. While wingman Jose Quintana is controlled for one additional year beyond Sale, it makes sense to trade both if they’re trading one. Particularly in a free agent market devoid of starting pitching, Hahn would hold the two best cards. Abreu, controlled through 2019 like Sale, would logically be dealt as well. The team would be building toward a 2020 reboot, with Adam Eaton, Carlos Rodon, and Anderson becoming the new faces of the franchise along with newly acquired young players. A fully rebuilding White Sox team would be best-served to commit at least three more years to Hahn and give him more autonomy, or else hire a new GM.

On the other hand, the White Sox currently have more present talent than your typical rebuilding club, especially in the rotation. Plus, the AL Central doesn’t appear packed with powerhouse teams over the next few years. The danger would be in repeating the 2015-16 offseason, in which the White Sox made some improvements but not enough, and stuck with questionable holdovers in several spots. If Cabrera is retained, he’s better served at designated hitter, in which case the Sox would need to add two outfielders. They also need a catcher, a starting pitcher, and a few relievers. These improvements would have to be made with a subpar cache of prospects for trade bait and a free agent market that matches the team’s needs poorly. And they’d still have to eat $22MM in releasing Shields. I don’t think all of this could or would be done under Williams and Hahn with Reinsdorf’s typical $120MM-range payroll, so something would need to change to make a true “all-in” push viable.

3. If a rebuild is chosen, make the most of playing time opportunities. The Brewers, in full rebuild mode, uncovered Jonathan Villar, Keon Broxton, Junior Guerra, and Zach Davies this year. The White Sox, meanwhile, continue to trot out Garcia as an everyday player. Though he’s only 25, Garcia has now logged over 1,500 plate appearances as a below-average hitter. While I understand every roster needs veterans, a rebuilding Sox club would have no reason to waste playing time on Garcia, Lawrie, Shields, or Cabrera in 2017. Whether or not anyone interesting can be acquired in return for these players, the playing time is valuable for identifying surprising contributors. The Brewers added players with upside who would not have been given a full opportunity on a competitive team, and that could be a blueprint for the White Sox.

The White Sox are the sixth team covered in this year’s Three Needs series, joining the D-backs, Twins, Rays, Angels and Brewers.

Pirates Acquire Chris Bostick From Nationals

By Steve Adams | September 26, 2016 at 2:48pm CDT

The Pirates announced that they have acquired infielder Chris Bostick from the Nationals in exchange for minor league catcher Taylor Gushue and cash. Bostick, who was designated for assignment by the Nats earlier this month, has been added to Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster but won’t join the team for the final few games of the season. He’ll take Josh Harrison’s spot on the 40-man, with Harrison being transferred to the 60-day disabled list.

Bostick, 23, split his season between Double-A and Triple-A with the Nats, hitting a combined .250/.313/.386 with eight homers and 11 steals while playing second base, third base and left field. He was ranked as the organization’s No. 25 prospect by Baseball America last offseason, with BA noting that he’s an above-average runner who stands out for a line-drive approach to all fields but may lack a true defensive home. He’s consistently displayed the pop necessary to reach double-digit home run totals and also averaged 27 steals per season from 2013-15.

The 22-year-old Gushue was Pittsburgh’s fourth-rounder back in 2014 and spent the 2016 campaign with their Class-A Advanced affiliate in Bradenton, where he batted .226/.282/.357. At the time Gushue was drafted, BA wrote that he was a good receiver with an average or even above-average arm behind the dish despite difficulties he’d had throwing out runners in college. Their report called him a below-average overall hitter but did note that he has average raw power. Gushue did hit a career-high eight homers in 90 games this season, though his 25 percent caught-stealing rate still leaves something to be desired.

Royals Notes: Cuthbert, Burns, Morales, International Market

By Steve Adams | September 26, 2016 at 1:32pm CDT

The Royals are on the cusp of mathematical elimination from the postseason, causing many fans to shift their focus to the club’s chances in 2017. With that in mind, a few notes on the reigning World Series champions…

MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan discusses a number of 2017 roster decisions in his latest Royals Inbox, including multiple questions on Cheslor Cuthbert’s role next season. The 23-year-old has had a solid rookie season at the plate in Kansas City, slashing .277/.322/.415 with 11 homers. However, with Mike Moustakas set to return to the club next year after having suffered a torn ACL earlier this summer, Cuthbert won’t be getting everyday at-bats at the hot corner. Flanagan also writes that Cuthbert isn’t likely to move to second base, either, as the Royals plan to have internal options Raul Mondesi, Christian Colon and Whit Merrifield compete for that gig. Defensive prowess will be the most heavily weighted factor in that position battle next spring, per Flanagan, who writes that each of the three candidates he listed is considered to be a better defensive option than Cuthbert. All of that, it seems, would leave Cuthbert without a regular role on next year’s Royals, so perhaps his ultimate fate will be returning to Triple-A to try to hone his skills at the hot corner (Flanagan points out that Cuthbert has had issues consistently making accurate throws and issues charging balls as well). Moustakas, after all, is a free agent following the 2017 campaign.
Also included in Flanagan’s column is a look at next year’s right field mix, where both Billy Burns and Jarrod Dyson will be considerations. The Royals, he notes, love speed and contact-oriented players, and both Dyson and Burns fit that mold well. While there’s the potential for some redundancy there, Dyson doesn’t figure to be overly expensive from an arbitration standpoint this winter, and Burns won’t be arbitration eligible this offseason. As such, it doesn’t seem like the Royals need to make a “one or the other” type of decision, and Kansas City could also simply carry both on the roster, as the switch-hitting Burns would give manager Ned Yost some matchup options.
Yahoo’s Jeff Passan writes in his latest 10 Degrees column that the Royals will “almost certainly” make a qualifying offer to Kendrys Morales on the heels of his impressive summer power surge. I examined the possibility of that scenario last week when looking at Morales’ free-agent stock, noting that it’s a risk for the Royals, considering Morales’ history with the qualifying offer system. After being burned by a QO on the heels of a nice season with the Mariners in 2013, a now-older Morales strikes me as a likely candidate to accept. The downside of Morales on a one-year deal worth about $16.7MM isn’t crippling, but it’s an overpay in a market that has become less rewarding for players with such pronounced defensive limitations. Passan, too, notes that Morales may accept a QO if tendered such an offer by Kansas City.
While the Royals are restricted on the international market this year thanks to last summer’s spending spree, assistant GM Rene Francisco tells Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star that he’s still happy with the talent the Royals have been able to bring in for relatively marginal bonus figures. “I think we did good with what we got,” the AGM said. “We gave $50,000 here, $100,000, $75,000, $150,000 — we just kind of spread out the money.” And, as Dodd points out, the Royals have a history of landing premium talent for rather unremarkable bonuses. Salvador Perez, Yordano Ventura and Kelvin Herrera were each unearthed by the Royals’ international scouting department and signed for bonuses south of $100K. Kansas City will also be barred from signing players for more than $300K in the 2017-18 signing period.

AL East Notes: Trumbo, Red Sox, Bautista, Encarnacion

By Steve Adams | September 26, 2016 at 10:23am CDT

The latest column from Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports focuses on the league-wide home run surge in 2016. MLB is on pace to set a new record for the most homers in a season on a per-plate-appearance basis. Passan profiles players either experiencing shocking levels of power output (e.g. Brian Dozier, Freddy Galvis) or enjoying a significant rebound in the power department, led by Orioles slugger Mark Trumbo. Acquired in a salary dump with the Mariners, Trumbo’s one-dimensional nature created virtually no trade market for him, Passan notes, and while his power spike will improve his stock this offseason, the one-dimensional questions will still exist. Trumbo is one of baseball’s worst defensive outfielders and has a below-average OBP because he walks less than the prototypical slugger. Still, a much older Nelson Cruz parlayed a 40-homer season into a four-year, $57MM contract, Passan notes, and he came with similar defensive question marks. I’d imagine that a team hoping to put Trumbo at first base wouldn’t be as concerned with his glove, but the combination of his defensive reputation, lack of OBP and a the presence of a qualifying offer will all be working against him.

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