Year: 2016

Questions Remaining

The biggest issue facing the Red Sox as they head into the 2016 season is that they’re still not sure exactly what they have in four projected regulars — Bradley, Rusney Castillo, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez.  It’s still an open question as to whether Bradley or Castillo can consistently hit Major League pitching, though the Sox have enough invested in both players (Bradley as a prospect and Castillo because he’s owed $56.5MM through 2020) that they’ll continue to get chances.  Boston has enough confidence in Bradley, in particular, that they held onto him despite quite a bit of trade interest.  Young, Murphy and Brock Holt are on hand as platoon partners or even replacements should Bradley and/or Castillo struggle, though if either player can provide even average production at the plate, their outstanding defense will generate a lot of value.

As for Sandoval and Ramirez, the Sox have to hope that the two high-priced veterans rebound after hugely disappointing debut seasons in Boston.  It’s no shock that Ramirez was shopped this offseason, and it’s equally unsurprising that the Red Sox were unable to find a trade partner given Ramirez’s tough 2015 campaign.  Had Ramirez been dealt, the Sox were rumored to have been interested in signing Chris Davis, who would’ve provided a more solid answer at first base than Boston’s current plan of having Ramirez learn his second new position in as many years.  Moving to first should be an easier transition for Ramirez than moving to left field, though beyond just defense, the Sox have to hope his bat awakens after he posted only a .717 OPS in 430 plate appearances.

Sandoval has been hampered by a sore back this spring and is facing a threat to his playing time in Travis Shaw.  The sophomore Shaw is enjoying a huge Spring Training and his ability to play both third and first will probably make him Boston’s top option if Sandoval or Ramirez struggle again (or if Sandoval’s back causes him to miss time).  Would the Red Sox actually bench either veteran to start Shaw or Holt?  Despite what Dombrowski has said about contracts not dictating playing time, you’d have to think the Sox would give Sandoval and Ramirez an extended opportunity to get back on track.

The Sox have quite a bit of homegrown position player depth to fall back on, though some cracks in the armor will quickly become apparent if (as in 2015) multiple regulars are injured or struggling.  It puts even more pressure on the members of the Red Sox lineup who did play well last year (i.e. Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia) to keep producing and carrying the club.

While the Red Sox had minor league depth to spare, they still gave up quite a bit to land Kimbrel from San Diego.  In addition to absorbing the $25MM remaining on Kimbrel’s contract, the Sox also parted ways with two consensus top-60 prospects (Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra) and two more well-regarded youngsters (Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen).  That’s a hefty price tag for any reliever, even an elite closer.  This is just my speculation, but I wonder if the Sox would’ve been better served by adding Margot or Guerra to a Hanley Ramirez trade package to try and entice a suitor to take Ramirez off Boston’s hands.

Price on the mound every fifth day is a big help, though given how many question marks remain on the pitching staff, adding another proven hurler would’ve done a lot of solidify the rotation.  The Red Sox now have to hope that Porcello and Kelly pitch as they did late in the season as opposed to their rough early outings, Rodriguez continues to develop into a quality starter once he returns from the DL, and Buchholz can stay healthy.

Catcher is also an interesting position for the 2016 Red Sox, as former top prospect Blake Swihart will start after a solid rookie season.  Swihart got the call perhaps a bit earlier than expected last season when Christian Vazquez (himself a highly-touted prospect) underwent Tommy John surgery.  If Vazquez is able to return in good health and good form, the Sox could use him or veteran Ryan Hanigan as a trade chip at the July trade deadline.  Vazquez could also simply be kept at Triple-A to get him fully re-acclimated to regular playing time, and Boston could revisit the catching question next winter when the team holds a $3.75MM option on Hanigan for 2017.

Deal Of Note

Smith will begin his Red Sox career on the disabled list due to a strained flexor mass in his right forearm, and while there isn’t yet a timetable for his return, the Sox don’t believe Smith’s injury is a long-term problem.  Since any forearm injury raises the specter of Tommy John surgery, Smith and the Red Sox can perhaps already feel fortunate about what seems to be a lesser injury.

Losing Smith for an extended period of time, of course, would greatly impact Boston’s bullpen and its net return on one of the winter’s more intriguing under-the-radar trades.  In his rookie year, Smith quietly delivered one of the best seasons of any reliever in 2015.  The 26-year-old posted a 2.31 ERA that was more than backed up by ERA predictors (2.12 FIP, 2.36 xFIP, 2.04 SIERA), as well as a 64.8% ground ball rate, 11.8 K/9 and 4.18 K/BB rate over 70 innings of work.

For comparison’s sake, Smith topped Kimbrel in ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, ground ball rate, homer rate, walk rate, innings and games pitched last season, while Uehara only came ahead of Smith in ERA, homer rate and walk rate.  Looking at other notable relievers who switched teams this winter, Smith also bested Ken Giles in most of those statistical categories.  While Smith is a year older than Giles and has one fewer season of MLB domination, the Sox gave Seattle much less for Smith than the prospect haul the Astros needed to acquire Giles from the Phillies.

An eighth-round pick for the Mariners in 2011, Smith has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen, racking up big strikeout totals in the minors and showing a career-long propensity for keeping the ball in the ballpark.  Smith has allowed just eight homers in 253 1/3 professional innings (including two last season), a talent that will come in handy at Fenway Park.

While Miley’s ability to eat innings is no small feat, he was an expendable piece in Boston and his 2016 role could perhaps more or less be filled by Elias, a lefty swingman who dominates left-handed hitters.  Jonathan Aro is a promising young relief arm, though Smith has already delivered in a big way on the Major League stage.

It may well be that Smith regresses a bit after the league gets more looks at him, though if he’s healthy and even close to his 2015 form, the Kimbrel/Uehara/Smith combination could be as dominant a late-inning trio as any in baseball.  Kimbrel is under contract through 2017 with a club option for 2018, so it’s possible the Red Sox could even see Smith as an eventual long-term replacement at closer.  Smith (and Elias) are controlled through the 2020 season and aren’t even eligible for arbitration until 2018.

Overview

The Price and Kimbrel acquisitions were two of the offseason’s biggest moves, though in terms of sheer volume of transactions, it was a relatively quiet winter by Red Sox (or Dombrowski) standards.  The Sox offseason had the feeling of a team adding some finishing touches to a contender rather than looking to overhaul a last-place unit.  The Sox clearly seem to think they’re closer in form to the everything’s-clicking team that went 34-26 down the stretch in 2015 rather than the struggling unit that began the year with a 44-58 record.  If another piece is needed during the season and the Sox are in contention, Dombrowski is no stranger to making a big deadline trade for additional upgrades.

There’s certainly enough talent on Boston’s roster to make a quick turnaround very feasible…though the same thing could’ve been said last offseason when the Sox were coming off another last place finish.  An ace in the rotation and an ace in the bullpen can only do so much if multiple key members of the roster continue to underachieve.

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Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images