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Archives for July 2018

Tigers Claim Josh Smoker, Designate Warwick Saupold

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The Tigers announced today that they’ve claimed left-hander Josh Smoker off waivers from the Pirates and optioned him to Triple-A Toledo. In order to clear room for him, the club has designated right-hander Warwick Saupold for assignment.

Smoker, 29, endured seven rough outings with the Pirates this past year spanning 5 2/3 innings. The southpaw coughed up seven earned runs while walking five and notching just a pair of strikeouts. Smoker’s been great at whiffing batters in the past, but he’s always struggled to avoid the home run ball, as evidenced by his 19.5% career HR/FB mark. He’s also never managed a full season with an ERA below 4.70. A supplemental first round pick by the Nationals in 2007, he never reached his lofty pre-draft billing.

Saupold, 28, has had a significant presence in the Tigers’ bullpen across the past season and a half, if for no other reason than for lack of more reliable arms within the organization. The right-hander owns a career ERA of 4.98, which actually looks like good fortune when compared to his 5.25 FIP. Saupold’s never known any organization outside of the Tigers, but he’ll now be entering the waiver wire.

 

Twins’ Kyle Gibson Drawing Trade Interest

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According to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Twins are receiving “as much interest in Kyle Gibson as in any of their players.” The Twins have waved the white flag on the 2018 season this week, shipping out both infielder Eduardo Escobar to the Diamondbacks and right-handed reliever Ryan Pressly to the Astros.

Of course, it should be noted right of the bat that Rosenthal’s source believes the Twins would need to be “blown away” to trade the right-hander. After a mostly mediocre career, the former number 22 overall pick is finally showing the brilliance Minnesota had always hoped they’d see. After back-to-back 5.07 ERA seasons, Gibson sports a 3.42 mark across 129 innings so far in 2018. He’s also struck out nearly a batter per inning and sports a healthy 46.2% ground ball rate, making him a fairly safe bet to continue his solid production moving forward.

It’s odd that the Twins don’t seem motivated to move Gibson, considering he’s only controllable through the 2019 season; Pressly was set to become a free agent at the same and he was dealt only yesterday. Of course, it’s certainly possible that the club was “blown away” by the return they got for Pressly, as Houston’s 10th- and 15th-best prospects came back to Minnesota in that deal. Gibson’s playing on a $4.2MM salary this season, meaning he will still remain quite affordable even after an arbitration bump in the coming winter.

Then again, the Twins might consider Gibson to be a valuable element of their hopes to jump back into contention in 2019. After all, Escobar was only controllable through the end of the year, so while we’re likely to see Brian Dozier moved in the coming days, it’s possible Minnesota might rely on bounceback seasons from Ervin Santana, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano along with some minor-league reinforcements in order to field a competitive team next year. After all, they’re in a division that looks to be very weak for years, outside of the AL Central-leading Indians.

There are certainly teams that might be willing to overwhelm Minnesota in order to land a quality starter. The Brewers appear poised to make an aggressive run at a postseason berth, and their rotation looks unsightly at the moment due in part to injuries. Also in the NL Central, the pitching-needy Cardinals don’t appear willing to punt the 2018 season and are certainly hoping to make a push in 2019. Gibson would also prove an upgrade over some of the Diamondbacks’ in-house options, and the same could be said of the Nationals, to whom he could also serve as insurance in case Stephen Strasburg is unable to return to health and form. This is all purely speculative, but regardless, if Gibson’s not dealt, it will be due to lack of an aggressive offer, not lack of suitors.

Indians, Giants Showing Interest In Brian Dozier

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Following trades of Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly, Twins fan favorite Brian Dozier seems all but destined to be donning another uniform on August 1st. Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press reports that both the Indians and Giants have been scouting the second baseman this week, who’s set to become a free agent at season’s end.

Dozier, 31, has been having a down season by his standards, slashing just .226/.307/.409 across the season’s first four months. He’s played below-average defense by measure of both UZR and DRS, and he’s on pace for his lowest homer total since 2014. Fangraph’s WAR formula pegs him as a slightly-below-average major leaguer so far this season after being at least a 5-win player in each of the past two campaigns.

Then again, Dozier’s been known to go off in the season’s second half. Dozier’s career wRC+ following the All-Star Break (116) is a full 13 points higher than his lifetime performance before it (103). His wOBA and triple-slash paint a similar picture. Just last season, in fact, exactly half of Dozier’s 34 homers came in either August or September, as did 33 of his 78 walks. While that doesn’t mean an acquiring team can lean heavily on that type of production as a pattern, it’s certainly encouraging for his many suitors.

One of those suitors, the Indians, have been known to be looking for help on offense, and Berardino notes that they’re still checking in on second and third base options as well as outfielders. Cleveland has also been connected to Joey Gallo within the past 24 hours, and could be even more heavily motivated to get some help on offense following recent news that Tyler Naquin is likely headed to the DL. As Berardino points out, longtime Tribe second baseman Jason Kipnis is enduring another down season, evidenced by his season batting line of .219/.306/.362 (though it’s worth noting that he’s picked up the pace significantly in the past six weeks).

While Dozier could potentially eat into Kipnis’ playing time, another possible scenario would be for Dozier to push Kipnis into the outfield mix, where the Indians are without particularly inspiring options. A stint in center field last season didn’t have good results for Kip, but it’s entirely possible he would be a better option there than the 37-year-old Rajai Davis or rookie Greg Allen. The Indians also probably don’t know what to expect from Lonnie Chisenhall, either, who has yet to amass 100 plate appearances this season due to a series of calf injuries, so it’s not difficult to imagine Kipnis being useful in right field, either.

As for the Giants, the fit is more obvious. Joe Panik has spent significant time on the disabled list this season and remains there at present. Even when the 27-year-old has been able to take the field, the results haven’t been great; he’s slashing 240/.309/.345 across 224 plate appearances and is rated as being roughly replacement level by Fangraphs. Then again, it’s a bit of a surprise to see the Giants taking a long look at Dozier in the first place considering he’s a pure rental and the Giants currently sit 6.5 games back of the division with significant questions in almost every area of their roster. While they’re a bit closer in the NL Wild Card race at just five games back, there are also five teams ahead of them in that race that they’d need to leapfrog just to secure a spot in the one-game playoff.

Frisaro’s Latest: Straily, Ziegler, Barraclough, Realmuto

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Following this past offseason’s fire sale of MLB assets, the Marlins are likely to ship out a few more players in the coming days prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro has some updates on the market for a wide number of Miami assets as we approach July 31st.

  • An Athletics scout paid a visit to Marlins Park this past Thursday, and Frisaro reports that he was there to watch right-hander Dan Straily pitch. Straily fell just short of a quality start in that outing, allowing three runs in 5 2/3 innings with six strikeouts against three walks. Astonishingly, Straily’s been able to hold together a 4.07 ERA this season despite a cataclysmic 5.41 FIP. After flashing improved control across the past two seasons, Straily has relapsed back to a 4.29 BB/9 and dealt with right forearm inflammation at the outset of the season, so it remains to be seen whether he’d be an attractive trade target to the A’s organization that drafted and developed him.
  • After a rough start to the season that saw him lose his job as the team’s closer, sidewinder Brad Ziegler has rebounded nicely to post a 3.08 ERA in 39 appearances since the start of May (though peripherals paint a worse picture). The Marlins have plenty of potential suitors for the right-hander, Frisaro says, and lists the Cubs, Indians, Red Sox and A’s as potential fits. It’s worth noting that the latter two clubs are already familiar with Ziegler, as he’s spent time pitching for both organizations. The 38-year-old has already been traded twice in his lengthy career, and is playing out the final months of a two-year, $16MM deal.
  • Ziegler’s not the only reliever fielding interest, Frisaro notes, as nearly a dozen scouts have been in Miami recently to watch Kyle Barraclough, Drew Steckenrider and Adam Conley pitch. Last we heard, the Marlins had placed a high price on each of the three, but it’s still certainly plausible that many teams would be willing to pay that price for relievers that come with such controllable relief arms; each of the aforementioned three is under team control through at least 2021.
  • The Nationals still aren’t having any luck trying to pry catcher J.T. Realmuto from the hands of the Marlins. Frisaro reports that Miami’s NL East rival once again checked in on the club’s best trade asset, but were told that any package for Realmuto would require Washington to fork over both outfield prospect Victor Robles and shortstop prospect Carter Kieboom, both of whom are generally seen as top 100 prospects. Unsurpringly, conversations didn’t go far.

Indians, Phillies Showing Interest In Joey Gallo

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Multiple teams have inquired about Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo, reports Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, with the Indians and Phillies being among the “most aggressive” in doing so.

For his part, Gallo will become arbitration-eligible after the 2019 season, and is under control through 2022. That makes him an attractive asset to teams pursuing outfield help, especially considering his strength. The former top ten prospect enjoyed a breakout campaign last season, smacking 41 dingers to go along with a 14.1% walk rate en route to a 3-fWAR season. That comes with a well-known Achilles heel, however, as Gallo’s gargantuan 36.8% strikeout rate severely limited his production ceiling. In addition, more than half his batted balls were of the fly ball variety and his penchant for pulling the ball half the time as well makes him easily shiftable; those two factors put a stranglehold on his BABIP, which ended 2017 at .250. All told, this profile resulted in him barely hitting above the Mendoza line (.205 AVG), and the issues have become even more pronounced in 2018.

That said, however, Fangraphs still pegs Gallo as a 1.3 WAR outfielder, meaning he’s about league average in terms of position player value. He’s also quite young at just 24 years of age, giving him plenty of time to iron out his issues and/or improve upon his power ceiling. As such, it’s no surprise that the Rangers are torn about whether or not to deal their 2012 supplemental first round draft selection. On the one hand, he’s perhaps the club’s best chance to reap a significant prospect return as they embark on what promises to be a fairly arduous rebuild. On the other hand, though, it might not be the right time to deal the power prodigy, as his value is depressed due to an average follow-up to his breakout campaign. There’s at least a fairly good chance that Gallo will improve upon the .190/.306/.458 batting line and 102 wRC+ he’s posted so far this season, and if he does, he might net a better trade package in the future than he would now.

The Indians have perhaps the bleakest outfield outlook of any contending team. Outside of Michael Brantley, who’s been producing at close to his vintage levels after missing most of the past two seasons due to shoulder and ankle injuries, the Tribe’s situation in right and center field has taken a disastrous turn. Opening Day center fielder Bradley Zimmer’s out for the season after undergoing shoulder surgery, their best right field option Lonnie Chisenhall’s out until September with another calf issue, and even Tyler Naquin has recently joined the injury report with a hip issue that could keep him out awhile. That leaves the Indians trying to piece together an outfield puzzle with pieces like Melky Cabrera, Rajai Davis, Brandon Guyer and Greg Allen, none of whom have been particularly inspiring this season. It’s understandable that the Indians would be checking in on each and every outfield option available.

Meanwhile, the fit for Gallo in Philadelphia is less clear. Rhys Hoskins continues to be a revelation and will be firmly cemented in left field for years to come, while Odubel Herrera’s got a similar stranglehold on the center field job. Gallo could push Nick Williams into a fourth outfield role, which is probably the most likely scenario, but it’s not as though Williams has been bad- he’s hit .257/.331/.457 as a member of the Phillies this season and has been only slightly worse defensively than Gallo. It’s worth noting that Gallo came up through the Rangers’ system as a third baseman and incumbent Maikel Franco looked to be close to losing his job earlier this season, but he’s done more than enough to keep the keys to the hot corner with his recent performance; since the start of June, Franco’s hit .285/.333/.533 with nine homers and a meager 11.6% strikeout rate.

It remains to be seen what other teams have inquired on Gallo, though it seems possible the Yankees could potentially be interested following a serious injury to Aaron Judge. The Red Sox and Astros are known to be looking for outfield pieces as well, though they’re far more likely to invest in players with a lower price tag.

Brewers Acquire Mike Moustakas

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The Brewers have lined up with the Royals on a deal that will bring third baseman Mike Moustakas to Milwaukee, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan first reported (via Twitter). Outfielder Brett Phillips and righty Jorge Lopez are going to Kansas City in return.

This appears to be a fascinating agreement for a variety of reasons, beginning with the fact that it’s the official farewell between Moustakas and the Royals, who surprisingly reunited last winter. It seems the Brewers will be rolling the dice on Travis Shaw’s ability to play second base, as the long-time third-bagger will apparently make way for his new teammate. For the Royals, meanwhile, the focus of this swap is on acquiring MLB options rather than far-off, higher-ceiling talent.

It’s a notable acquisition price for the Brewers to pay, but also a palatable one for a club that had other plans at these positions. After watching Manny Machado, Eduardo Escobar, and Asdrubal Cabrera head elsewhere, the club pivoted to the veteran Moustakas and got something done without giving up prized future pieces.

That said, the fit seems awfully curious; indeed, we expressed some skepticism of that match when it was first suggested. The Milwaukee organization clearly believes that Shaw is capable of playing second base, but he has never yet done so in a professional baseball contest. It certainly helps that the club can still call upon a variety of other infielders to slot in at second when the situation calls for it.

Of course, slotting Moustakas’s bat into a lineup promises to vastly increase the offensive output over the run of marginal bats that left the Brewers with one of the least-productive second base units in the game. He has seen his numbers dwindle over the course of the year, but still owns a .249/.309/.468 batting line that’s good for a 107 wRC+ and falls mostly in line with his typical output at the plate.

Otherwise, Moustakas is grading out as a solid defender and poor baserunner on the year, leaving him as a quality regular. But he’s most effective against right-handed pitching, albeit not by a huge margin, so perhaps skipper Craig Counsell can extract added some added value both by means of seeking platoon advantages and remaining mindful of situational priorities.

It appears that the Brewers will take over Moustakas’s contract, which promised him just $5.5MM this year with a $1MM buyout in a 2019 mutual option. There’s no particular reason to think that the option will be seen as anything more than a formality in this coming offseason, so the Milwaukee organization likely views this as a pure rental situation.

As they send Moustakas on his way, the Royals will receive an interesting return of two young players who already have some MLB experience. Neither is currently billed as highly as they have been in the past. And both will continue to occupy 40-man spots, meaning they’ll be part of the roster picture at the major-league level from the outset.

Phillips still rated as the Brewers’ sixth-best prospect on the latest Baseball America board, though MLB.com wasn’t quite as bullish in rating him tenth. The 24-year-old still has intriguing tools, though he has also struggled to a .240/.331/.411 slash in 299 plate appearances this year at Triple-A. He’ll join the recently acquired Brian Goodwin in giving the Royals organization a group of outfielders that suddenly seems much more interesting.

Lopez, meanwhile, has fallen even farther from grace. Once a consensus top-100 prospect, the 25-year-old has run into some problems of late. He pitched to a 4.25 ERA in 103 2/3 Double-A frames in 2017, but posted much more promising peripherals that supported a 3.21 FIP an 3.13 xFIP. Unfortunately, there’s not much cause for optimism in his 2018 output. Lopez has a 2.75 ERA in 19 2/3 MLB innings, but he also carries a 15:13 K/BB ratio. In 28 2/3 Triple-A frames, he’s working to a 5.65 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Astros To Acquire Ryan Pressly

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The Astros have officially struck a deal to acquire reliever Ryan Pressly from the Twins, as Ken Rosenthal and Robert Murray of The Athletic first reported (Twitter links). Prospects Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino are going to Minnesota in the deal, as first mentioned by Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter).

Pressly, 29, has taken a big step forward this year after showing solid peripherals — but generating only a 4.70 ERA — in his 61 1/3 innings last year. Through 47 2/3 innings in the present campaign, the right-hander is sporting a 3.40 ERA with an eye-opening 13.0 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9.

Better still, Pressly is earning just $1.6MM this year with another season of arbitration eligibility left to go. While the ’Stros were likely not overly concerned with cost, they obviously valued the additional season of control and surely were not unaware of the fact that it’ll come at a manageable price tag.

Just how things will shake out at the back of the Houston pen remains to be seen. For now, usual closer Ken Giles remains at Triple-A. Despite his increasingly interesting output, Pressly has not recorded any saves this year and only has eight holds. It seems likely, then, that Hector Rondon will remain the top option in the ninth, barring another move or a return to grace for Giles.

Despite his relative lack of late-inning experience, Pressly will represent another weapon for a relief unit that’s already among the best in baseball. Long noted for his impressive spin rate, Pressly has finally put it all together. This year, he’s sporting a dominant 17.9% swinging-strike rate while mixing a slider and curve off of his 96+ mph four-seamer. Much of the bump in the swing-and-miss has come from his slider, though the contact rate on that pitch has trended up over the course of the season.

While the Twins didn’t need to move Pressly, it seems the market interest was enough to force the club’s hand. Whether or not other non-rental assets will be parted with remains to be seen. Clearly, after previously moving Eduardo Escobar, there’ll be more moves to come. Infielder Brian Dozier and relievers Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke seem likeliest to end up on other rosters.

The team has picked up some interesting new assets to go with the youthful pieces added in the deal it completed earlier today. Alcala, who turns 23 tomorrow, is a pure flamethrower who’s still working to refine his secondary offerings. He has turned in 79 1/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball with 9.3 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 this year, splitting his time between High-A and Double-A, and graded as Houston’s tenth-best prospect on MLB.com’s most recent list. Celestino checked in at #15 on that ranking and was recently noted by Baseball America as the Astros’ top defensive outfield prospect. The 19-year-old has hit quite well this year at the low-A level, posting a .317/.383/.476 slash with four home runs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Escobar, Hamels, Judge, Lamb

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(July 27th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

GM Dayton Moore Says Royals Will Not Trade Whit Merrifield

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Whit Merrifield’s name has been bandied about the rumor circuit dating back to the offseason, when it became clear that the Royals were embarking on a rebuilding course. General manager Dayton Moore made clear today, however, that one of his more appealing potential trade chips will be staying put this summer. Speaking to Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), Moore plainly stated that the second baseman/center fielder “certainly won’t be traded at the deadline.”

While it’s not a surprise that the Royals are reluctant to part with Merrifield, who can be controlled for another four years beyond the 2018 season, it’s also somewhat out of the ordinary for a general manager to so emphatically and publicly declare that a player will be staying put. Moore didn’t rule out an eventual trade of Merrifield down the line — be it in the offseason or at a later date — but for the time being made clear that, “We need him in our city and on our team.”

Perhaps it’s not entirely a coincidence that Moore publicized his stance on Merrifield on the same day in which two major rental infielders were on the move. With the market seemingly cresting at an unusually early point in time, it could be that the Kansas City organization believes it has a firm sense of the true level of interest in Merrifield. Moore evidently feels sure the club isn’t going to get an offer truly worth considering over the next several days.

Moore’s assertion is also interesting when viewed alongside recent comments Merrifield made in an interview with The Athletic’s Rustin Dodd (subscription required). Merrified said he not only hoped to avoid being traded but prefers to sign a long-term deal with the Royals, even as they look like a clear non-contender for at least a couple of seasons. Whether there’s a middle ground for the two sides to find remains to be seen, of course, and Merrifield is hardly a typical extension candidate. While he’ll only have two years of service time this offseason and won’t be arbitration-eligible until after the 2019 season, Merrifield didn’t break into the Majors until he was already 27 years of age and will turn 30 this winter.

The Royals, then, already control Merrifield through his age-33 season as it is, thus reducing the team’s cause to sign him to a long-term pact. Any deal that spans beyond his current club control would stretch into Merrifield’s age-34 season, and it’d be more than understandable if the Royals were hesitant to guarantee him a notable salary at that age — at least this far in advance. Speculatively, perhaps the two sides could come to terms on a deal that’d buy out Merrifield’s three arbitration seasons while also giving the team control over a would-be free-agent season via a club option, though there’s been no indication that such a deal has even been kicked around. (MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explored the potential merit of an agreement back in March.)

Regardless of whether talks take place, and how they turn out, it seems Merrifield will at least finish out the season in Kansas City. And it appears the same holds true of starter Danny Duffy. There’s certainly an argument to be made that this summer represents an opportune moment to deal Merrifield. In addition to his appealing contract situation, he is a versatile defender, an outstanding baserunner, and (thus far in 2018) a 120 wRC+ hitter. Surely, that package of attributes would bring back a significant return that might outweigh Merrifield’s value to this particular organization, especially given his age. But it could be that we’re seeing the formation of an attempt at a relatively quick K.C. rebound. After all, the club just wrapped up a draft that focused heavily on college hurlers. Trade talks could be revisited this winter, to be sure, but the decision to pull Merrifield off the deadline market is the latest indication that the Royals won’t fully tear down their roster.

Brewers, Orioles Holding “Serious Discussions”

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The Brewers and Orioles are “engaged in serious discussions,” per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), though the precise focus of the chatter remains unclear. He does suggest that the sides could be negotiating over second bagger Jonathan Schoop and/or starter Kevin Gausman.

It’s hardly new to hear that these clubs are on the horn with one another. After all, they reputedly batted around proposals involving Manny Machado and Zach Britton, both of whom were ultimately sent elsewhere. It seems reasonable to assume, then, that the organizations are rather familiar with their respective priorities.

With its two major rental pieces already sent out the door, the Baltimore organization has perhaps shifted its attention to weighing proposals for more controllable assets. That said, the club does still have a few pending free agents to work on. There’s little reason to think outfielder Adam Jones would be of interest to the Brewers, though perhaps reliever Brad Brach might.

Ultimately, though, it does stand to reason that the Brewers would mostly be piqued by the possibility of adding one of the two players suggested by Rosenthal. The team’s second-base situation remains in flux, and it has long figured as a likely buyer of a starter. Having missed on Machado and a few other rental infielders who went out the door today, and with the market for rental starters showing little of real interest in stock, GM David Stearns is surely considering a move for assets that also come with future value.

The idea of giving value for players who’ll contribute in later seasons holds obvious appeal, particularly for a smaller-market organization that has turned back into a contender somewhat more rapidly than was generally anticipated. Much as the team wants to take down the Cubs in the NL Central, it will be cognizant of the need to keep one eye on sustainability. Plus, finding an answer at second and bolstering the rotation will likely be offseason priorities regardless.

Both Schoop and Gausman are players with long-evident talent who have had some ups and downs this year. On the heels of a breakout 2017 season, Schoop slumped through the first half of the current season only to go on a tear over the last month. Gausman, meanwhile, has had some inconsistencies and continues to allow a few too many home runs. But he owns a career-high 11.3% swinging-strike rate and some metrics like him better than his 4.54 ERA (4.59 FIP/4.05 xFIP/4.12 SIERA).

Of course, the Orioles also have little reason to move these two players for less-than-enticing returns, as there’s no pressure to cash them in now. Schoop is earning $8.5MM with one season of arbitration control remaining, while Gausman is taking home $5.6MM with two more to go. The Baltimore organization has acknowledged the obvious when it comes to competing in 2018, but it’s still not clear how long a turnaround the club is aiming for when it comes to putting the next contender on the field. It’s certainly notable that the club has some high-priced veterans on the roster.

In any event, for the time being this seems an interesting story to watch rather than something that’s likely to blossom into a finished deal in the immediate future. Roch Kubtko of MASNsports.com tweets that “nothing is imminent” for the O’s this evening.

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