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2019 MLB Draft Results — First Round

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The 2019 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll track the first-round picks as they come in. Rather than breaking things up as we have in the past, we’ll just track everything before the 2nd round in this post. This year, there are 32 true first-round picks, followed by a pair of compensation picks and seven competitive balance selections.

Here are the picks:

  1. Baltimore Orioles: Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State University
  2. Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville Heritage HS (TX)
  3. White Sox: Andrew Vaughn, 1B, University of California
  4. Marlins: JJ Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt University
  5. Tigers: Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS (FL)
  6. Padres: C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity Catholic HS (GA)
  7. Reds: Nick Lodolo, LHP, Texas Christian University
  8. Rangers: Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech University
  9. Braves: Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor University
  10. Giants: Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona State University
  11. Blue Jays: Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia University
  12. Mets: Brett Baty, 3B, Lake Travis HS (TX)
  13. Twins: Keoni Cavaco, 3B, Eastlake HS (CA)
  14. Phillies: Bryson Stott, SS, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
  15. Angels: Will Wilson, SS, North Carolina State University
  16. Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS (WA)
  17. Nationals: Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto JC (TX)
  18. Pirates: Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove HS (IL)
  19. Cardinals: Zack Thompson, LHP, University of Kentucky
  20. Mariners: George Kirby, RHP, Elon University
  21. Braves: Braden Shewmake, SS, Texas A&M University
  22. Rays: Greg Jones, SS, University of North Carolina-Wilmington
  23. Rockies: Michael Toglia, 1B, University of California-Los Angeles
  24. Indians: Daniel Espino, RHP, Georgia Premier Academy (HS)
  25. Dodgers: Kody Hoese, 3B, Tulane University
  26. Diamondbacks: Blake Walston, LHP, New Hanover HS (NC)
  27. Cubs: Ryan Jensen, RHP, Fresno State
  28. Brewers: Ethan Small, LHP, Mississippi State
  29. Athletics: Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson
  30. Yankees: Anthony Volpe, SS, Delbarton School (NJ)
  31. Dodgers: Michael Busch, 1B, University of North Carolina
  32. Astros: Korey Lee, C, Cal
  33. Diamondbacks: Brennan Malone, RHP, IMG Academy (FL; compensatory pick)
  34. Diamondbacks: Drey Jameson, RHP, Ball State (compensatory pick)
  35. Marlins: Kameron Misner, OF, Missouri (Competitive Balance Round A)
  36. Rays: JJ Goss, RHP, Cypress Ranch HS (TX; Competitive Balance Round A)
  37. Pirates: Sammy Siani, OF, William Penn Charter School (PA; Competitive Balance Round A)
  38. Yankees: TJ Sikkema, LHP, Missouri (Competitive Balance Round A)
  39. Twins: Matt Wallner, OF, Southern Mississippi (Competitive Balance Round A)
  40. Rays: Seth Johnson, RHP, Campbell University (Competitive Balance Round A)
  41. Rangers: Davis Wendzel, 3B, Baylor (Competitive Balance Round A)

Looking For A Match In A Madison Bumgarner Trade

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It’s safe to say Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner will be one of the hottest commodities available leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. Bumgarner – set to turn 30 the day after the deadline (Aug. 1) – is among the game’s most accomplished hurlers in both the regular season and the playoffs, and he’s not under contract past this season. Thanks to the latter point, the out-of-contention Giants may elect to part with Bumgarner, who has been with the organization since it chose him 10th overall in the 2007 draft.

Going back to his 2010 debut in the majors, Bumgarner owns a sterling 3.07 ERA/3.26 FIP with 8.75 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 43.8 percent groundball rate in 1,712 1/3 innings. Bumgarner has added 102 /3 innings of 2.11 ERA playoff pitching to his resume, making him one of the game’s go-to hurler’s in key situations. He hasn’t pitched in the postseason since 2016, though, and hasn’t resembled the durable ace he once did earlier in his career.

Bumgarner amassed at least 200 innings of high-quality run prevention from 2011-16, but a dirt bike crash limited him to 111 frames in 2017, and a fractured pinky held him to 129 2/3 innings last season. All told, since Bumgarner’s six-year run of excellence came to an end, he has recorded a 3.46 ERA/3.88 FIP with 8.12 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 40.8 percent grounder mark over 314 2/3 innings.

As shown by his output over the past few seasons, Bumgarner has remained a solid starter even as the Giants have fallen out of contention. Bumgarner’s not the ace-caliber option he once was, though, and with a few months’ control left (on a $12MM salary), San Francisco’s not in position to demand a king’s ransom for MadBum if it deals him in the next two months. The Giants don’t seem like a team that’s close to returning to glory, however, and they own of baseball’s worst farm systems. With that in mind, trading Bumgarner to bolster the franchise’s collection of young talent before the end of July could be a logical move for the organization.

If the Giants take the plunge and attempt to part with Bumgarner, there are several potential fits for the franchise icon. That said, one possible suitor may exit the mix by signing free-agent southpaw Dallas Keuchel, who could ink a contract any second from now, and Bumgarner’s eight-team no-trade clause means he’ll have a certain amount of say in where he goes next. Those factor’s won’t kill interest in Bumgarner, however, as shown below (in alphabetical order)….

  • Angels: The Halos have gotten little from their rotation this season, but the Mike Trout-led club is still just 2 1/2 games out of wild-card position. That doesn’t mean the Angels will be in the Bumgarner sweepstakes, but if they really want to push for a playoff spot, they’ll need to upgrade their rotation. Free-agent signings Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill simply haven’t worked out to this point, leaving the Angels with a need for an established veteran in their starting five.
  • Astros: Keuchel, Charlie Morton and the injured Lance McCullers Jr. have all left Houston’s rotation since last season, leaving Wade Miley, Brad Peacock and Corbin Martin to pick up the pieces behind Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. That’s not a bad group by any means, but Verlander and Cole act as the rising tide that lifts all boats. Bumgarner would look pretty nice behind them, though his limited no-trade clause gives him the right to nix a Giants-Astros deal.
  • Braves: Atlanta’s one of the teams Bumgarner could block a trade to, but as a childhood Braves fan who grew up in the South (North Carolina), it’s tough to see him blocking a deal to Georgia. The need’s obvious for the Braves, whose rotation has lacked answers behind Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Julio Teheran this season.
  • Brewers: Milwaukee’s rotation took a couple hits over the weekend in the form of injuries to Gio Gonzalez and Jhoulys Chacin, the latter of whom has trudged through a terrible season. Only Gonzalez, Brandon Woodruff, Zach Davies and Chase Anderson have given the Brewers’ rotation passable production this season, which leaves room for Bumgarner. However, they’re on Bumgarner’s no-trade list.
  • Cardinals: There hasn’t been a lot to like in St. Louis’ shaky rotation this year, which could lead to a Bumgarner acquisition. The Redbirds are on his no-trade list, though.
  • Mets: Whether the disappointing Mets would make an aggressive move to repair their rotation is in question, but the need exists. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz could use a better complement than Jason Vargas.
  • Padres: San Diego has been on the hunt for a front-line starter since the winter, and Bumgarner could fit the bill if the team’s bullish enough on him. The Padres, as an NL West rival, are certainly familiar enough with Bumgarner. He’d clearly strengthen a group which hasn’t received much from anyone but Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi, Matt Strahm or Eric Lauer. It’s worth noting the Padres are monitoring the workloads of Paddack and Strahm, which could limit their impact as the season progresses.
  • Phillies: This has been a rather underwhelming season for Philadelphia’s rotation, including potential ace Aaron Nola. There’s obviously space for Bumgarner, though he’d have to approve a trade to the Phillies.
  • Rangers: This is a long shot, but the Rangers are unexpectedly in wild-card contention and would benefit from Bumgarner. He’d join a team whose rotation has gotten little aside from Mike Minor, Lance Lynn and Ariel Jurado (over a mere three starts in Jurado’s case).
  • Rays: The opener method has worked well for Tampa Bay, but the club has turned to that strategy largely because it’s lacking an adequate supply of credible starters. Bumgarner would give the Rays another legitimate traditional starter alongside Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Morton, assuming Glasnow returns this summer from a forearm strain.
  • Red Sox: The reigning world champs are on Bumgarner’s no-trade list, but there’s a need for a rotation stabilizer in Beantown. Chris Sale hasn’t been his usual ace-like self, Nathan Eovaldi has been injured, and Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez have only offered back-end production to this point. The luxury tax is a concern for the Red Sox, though – they’re at upward of $251MM in that regard, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, and will pay a 75 percent tax for every dollar spent over the $246MM mark while losing 10 spots in the 2020 draft.
  • Rockies: Colorado’s rotation was a strength last year, but that hasn’t been the case this season despite the best efforts of German Marquez and Jon Gray. The club just demoted 2018 Cy Young contender Kyle Freeland to the minors. He, like Bumgarner, is a lefty.
  • Twins: Judging by their interest in Keuchel, we know the first-place Twins aren’t content with their rotation. Bumgarner would fit in nicely in a quintet that hasn’t received much production after Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez.
  • Yankees: New York’s yet another contender on Bumgarner’s no-trade list. That aside, the Yankees should be on the lookout for another starter. Ace Luis Severino hasn’t pitched at all this season on account of a lat strain, while No. 2 starter James Paxton has never been the most durable option. Meanwhile, 2019 standout Domingo German hasn’t exceeded 100 innings in  a season since  2014 – when he was a Single-A pitcher – and the soon-to-be 39-year-old CC Sabathia’s hardly an endless source of innings in the twilight of his career.

Of the 14 teams listed above, some are better positioned to land Bumgarner than others, as shown in the most recent farm system rankings of Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs. Judging by the amount of potential suitors for Bumgarner, though, the Giants should get a respectable package for the franchise icon if they move him. Two end-of-July deadlines ago, the Rangers sent righty Yu Darvish to the Dodgers for three players, including then-top 100 prospect Willie Calhoun. The Rangers followed that up by moving lefty Cole Hamels to the Cubs last year for three players, though no one from the trio was a premium prospect at the time. While Bumgarner won’t bring back an enormous return this summer, he ought to warrant something along the lines of what Darvish landed the Rangers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

L.A. City Attorney Defers Prosecution Of Julio Urias

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Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias will not face criminal charges arising out of his recent arrest, Richard Winton and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times report. The decision to “defer prosecution” was announced by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office.

That determination is not absolute. As stated in an official press release, Urias could be prosecuted if he fails to meet three conditions: “(1) that Mr. Urias participate in a City Attorney hearing; (2) that he commit no acts of violence against anyone; and 3) that he successfully participate in and complete a 52 week domestic violence counseling program in person, and in a group setting.” That counseling will take place in two-hour sessions once a week and will occur during the current baseball season.

Notably, as part of the counseling, Urias will be required (among other things) to “accept responsibility for the abusive behavior perpetrated against the victim.” The city attorney’s office stated that the decision not to prosecute was based upon the lack of injury, the fact that the alleged victim never characterized herself in that manner, and Urias’s lack of a prior criminal history. The L.A. Times report also indicates that there were variances between witness accounts of a shoving and the statements of the alleged victim, who said that she fell.

From a baseball perspective, the matter is still not resolved. Urias was previously reinstated from the inactive list, but the commissioner’s office made clear that its investigation has yet to be concluded. The city attorney’s statements seem to suggest there may be evidence that Urias violated the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy. That policy provides the commissioner with broad authority to issue appropriate discipline regardless of whether a crime was charged or prosecuted by relevant legal authorities. Findings under the league policy would also be subject to different standards from those of a criminal case.

Orioles Select Adley Rutschman First Overall

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The Orioles have a new front office and new dugout leadership. And now, the club has a new top prospect after officially selecting star Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman with the first overall pick of the 2019 Rule 4 amateur draft.

Though the Baltimore organization kept things quiet in the build-up to the draft, it would have rated as a major surprise had the club gone in a different direction. Rutschman checks all the boxes you want to see in a 1-1 draft selection.

Rutschman is widely considered the best overall prospect available this year. He’s a highly accomplished collegiate catcher who helped his team to a national championship last year. (Indeed, he was named the most outstanding player of the College World Series.)

Scouting reports on Rutschman, an Oregon native, read like a creat-a-player dream list from a video game. He’s a switch hitter who has walked more often than striking out in college even while delivering outstanding power. Scouts also grade him as a top-tier defensive performer behind the dish.

It’s a momentous decision for an Orioles club that has fallen on hard times after a questionable call to attempt to contend in 2018. The team’s new front office will look to assemble as much talent as possible and ramp up toward a return to glory, with Rutschman’s timeline likely to be a key factor.

The first overall pick comes with a $8.42MM bonus allocation. The O’s have the second-highest overall pool allocation. While the Diamondbacks won’t choose until the 16th overall pick, they added a pair of compensation picks that significantly boosted their overall availability.

Final Mock Drafts Form Consensus At Top Of Draft

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If you’re just realizing that tonight is the MLB Draft, you’ll need to catch up quickly. Baseball’s Rule 4 amateur draft will never have the drama (real or concocted) of the NFL version of the event, but it’s still a major moment for the sport. This year, new Orioles GM Mike Elias will make a franchise-defining pick to kick off the festivities … in just about half an hour, at 7pm eastern.

It’s often said that teams increasingly share common player assessments in baseball’s information age. And unlike football, where fit matters quite a bit, it’s generally believed that baseball teams ought to take the best player available since so few are able to make it to the majors in the short term.

So, does that mean the MLB draft is predictable? No … but maybe also yes, at least in some respects.

There’s still plenty of room for disagreement on amateur players; statistics are obviously less useful when they are logged against disparate competition of varying ability. The draft isn’t just a rank ordering of true talent, anyway. It involves considerations of overall draft bonus pools and off-the-books negotiations with unofficial player advisers. (For more on that side of the proceedings, read this great piece from Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper.)

That said, those behind-the-scenes factors can also leave some nuggets of information that allow other teams, agents, and draft observers to gauge the likely outcome of the draft’s earliest stages. It’s typically still difficult to know in advance how things will shake out, but this year there’s an unusual degree of consensus in the draft analysis community.

The final mock drafts all share a common top-five, predicting:

  1. Orioles to select Adley Rutschman
  2. Royals to select Bobby Witt, Jr.
  3. White Sox to select Andrew Vaughn
  4. Marlins to select J.J. Bleday
  5. Tigers to select Riley Greene

Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB.com, and ESPN.com all have quite a few differences in their predicted boards, of course. But all except Fangraphs also agree on the next two picks (CJ Abrams to Padres and Nick Lodolo to Reds).

Whether anything will occur to shake things up remains to be seen. There’s still some rumblings of intrigue with the 1-1 selection; Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs tweets that it may not be settled even at this point. Keith Law of ESPN.com also tweeted about some top-five possibilities that fall outside of the consensus expectation.

Beyond the final mock drafts, here are some other draft resources to check out or reference as the draft unfolds.

Angels Designate John Curtiss

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The Angels have designated righty John Curtiss for assignment, per a club announcement. Infielder Taylor Ward will take the open active roster spot.

The club also announced that outfielder Michael Hermosillo has been reinstated from the 60-day IL. That move absorbs the newly opened 40-man spot. Hermosillo was optioned to Triple-A.

The 26-year-old Curtiss did not get into a game in his second stint of the year on the MLB roster; he made just one appearance earlier in the season. In 21 1/3 innings this year at Triple-A, Curtiss has allowed 14 earned runs on twenty hits with a 29:13 K/BB ratio.

Phillies Option Nick Williams, Activate Jay Bruce

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If you weren’t watching the wire this weekend, the Phillies swung an early deal to add a lefty power bat. Today, the club announced that outfielder Nick Williams was optioned out to make way for veteran slugger Jay Bruce, who’s active for the team’s game this evening.

In another move, the Phils have optioned down lefty Cole Irvin. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by fellow southpaw Austin Davis, who’ll slip into the bullpen.

The 25-year-old Williams was already optioned out after receiving few opportunities during a rough start to the season. He came back onto the active roster following the arrest of outfielder Odubel Herrera, but has since struck out six times in eight plate appearances.

For the time being, Williams will get to work on finding his bat at Triple-A. The former top prospect will serve as a near-term depth piece for the Phils, who’ll also hope he can reclaim some of his former promise. It’s certainly possible to imagine the team exploring trade options involving Williams this summer or in the coming offseason.

Latest On Dallas Keuchel

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Dallas Keuchel’s market, like that of fellow free agent Craig Kimbrel, figures to accelerate in the coming days now that he’s no longer tied to draft-pick compensation. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Yankees, Cardinals and Braves are among the favorites to land Keuchel — though as of yesterday, Keuchel and the Yankees were still a ways apart in terms of asking price. Earlier this morning, the Twins were also reported to have had recent talks with Keuchel’s agent, Scott Boras.

The rationale behind the Yankees’ interest in Keuchel isn’t difficult to see. Luis Severino has yet to pitch in 2019, primarily due to a lat strain that will likely sideline him into next month. Both James Paxton and CC Sabathia have spent time on the injured list, and Domingo German figures to be on some type of innings limit after throwing only 94 innings in 2018 between the Majors and minors (and 123 1/3 frames the year prior). Signing Keuchel would come with notable luxury ramifications for the Yankees, who’d pay a 32 percent tax on any dollar spent on him (per Jason Martinez’s luxury projections at Roster Resource).

The Cardinals, too, have seen some rotation issues pop up. Carlos Martinez has been moved to the bullpen after spending the beginning of the season on the injured list, while free-agent-to-be Michael Wacha has also been moved to a relief following an awful start to the year. Rookie Genesis Cabrera is getting his first look at the MLB level, but the Cards are in 1.5 games back in the tightly contested National League Central — a division where the difference between first place and fifth place is a mere span of 6.5 games at the moment.

Keuchel’s shedding of draft pick compensation matters less to the Astros than to others, since they were never in line to forfeit one of their picks to retain him and have known for a while they wouldn’t end up scoring a compensatory pick. But ESPN’s Buster Olney suggests (subscription required) that there may yet be a gap between what Houston is willing to offer and what Keuchel is seeking. The Astros offered Keuchel a one-year deal worth about $15MM early in Spring Training when he was still seeking a multi-year deal, according to Olney. Even though his asking price has come down since that point, he’s still reported to be seeking a one-year deal worth the $17.9MM value of the qualifying offer he rejected last November. Any such sum would be prorated over the course of the remainder of the season.

Brewers Option Keston Hiura, Activate Travis Shaw

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The Brewers have optioned second baseman Keston Hiura, the club announced today. He’ll leave the active roster to make way for the activation of Travis Shaw, who had been rehabbing a wrist injury.

Hiura, 22, certainly hasn’t shown himself in capable of keeping up at the game’s highest level. To the contrary, he’s slashing a hefty .281/.333/.531 with five home runs in 69 plate appearances. While there’s much to be desired in his combination of 23 strikeouts and three walks, Hiura has largely confirmed that the Brewers and prospect watchers were right to expect big things right out of the gates.

It’s tough to see that batting line leave the active roster, particularly given Shaw’s struggles to open the year. He’ll presumably return to his customary duties at the hot corner, with Mike Moustakas going back to second base. The defensive alignment is suboptimal, but passable; it’s the hitting department where this decision will likely be judged.

Before he hit the shelf, the 29-year-old Shaw managed only a .163/.266/.281 slash in 154 plate appearances. That’s far shy of the output he delivered in his first two seasons in Milwaukee, during which he launched 63 home runs and batted a cumulative .258/.347/.497.

GM David Stearns explained to reporters that the club made this move to “preserv[e] organizational depth.” (Via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel; links to Twitter.) Of course, Shaw could have been optioned down instead of Hiura, but Stearns says the veteran has earned the right to step back into the MLB lineup. That doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to stay there. The pressure will be on Shaw and struggling first baseman Jesus Aguilar, who is out of options.

Stearns rejected the notion that service time played a role in the decision. Whether or not that was a motivating factor, there are implications for both players. Hiura’s initial promotion occurred on May 14th, meaning he could have run up 139 days of service by remaining in the majors all year long. That would have set him up for potential future Super Two qualification. Unless he comes back rather quickly, that’ll no longer be the case. On Shaw’s side, he’ll get the opportunity to reestablish his stock and boost his arbitration earning power by returning to the MLB roster. He has a strong starting point with this year’s $4.675MM salary, though that also means he’ll need to improve in order to be tendered by the Brewers (or command good money in free agency if he isn’t).

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