Top Trade Deadline Candidates

With just four days until the August 2 trade deadline, we’re approaching the opening of the floodgates of activity. The first major domino of deadline season fell Wednesday night, when the Royals shipped Andrew Benintendi to the Yankees for a trio of pitching prospects. With that in mind, it’s time for an updated look at the players who could find themselves on the move.

As always, this list is loosely ordered in terms of both likelihood of being traded and value to an acquiring club. Rental players are inherently going to carry less long-term value but are generally likelier to be moved by virtue of their impending free agency. There’s an inherent subjectivity in striking that balance.

Benintendi was our No. 2 trade candidate when we did the first iteration of this list in early July. While many of the players on that list are still likely to switch uniforms, plenty of previously unexpected trade candidates have popped up in the meantime. That leads to a change at the top of the list, with no one else dominating headlines quite like a 23-year-old superstar who’s now on the market.

1. Juan Soto, OF, Nationals

Soto turned down the Nationals latest extension offer, a proposed 15-year, $440MM pact. That at least halted, if not entirely ended, discussions about a potential long-term deal. Washington has been the worst team in the National League without a clear path back to respectability next season. If the front office believes they’re without a clear path to extending Soto, there’s a strong case for dealing him rather than watching him play out much of his remaining arbitration eligibility on bad teams.

None of that is to say the Nationals have to or will trade Soto in the next few days. There’d be almost as much demand for two years of a player of his caliber next offseason. An acquiring team would lose out on a chance to have Soto for a playoff push this summer if the Nationals hang onto him, but waiting until the offseason allows the front office more time to evaluate young players and/or prospects of interest. It’d also open up the number of players available, as 2022 draftees are ineligible to be dealt until after this season (even as players to be named later).

Soto’s trade candidacy is virtually unparalleled in recent memory. He’s won two Silver Sluggers, appeared in two All-Star games and been a key contributor on a World Series winner before turning 24. He’s a career .291/.426/.538 hitter (all stats referenced through play July 27). Even in a bit of a “down” 2022 season by his incredible standard, Soto has the fifth-highest on-base percentage among qualifiers (.400) and has slugged 20 home runs. Even with a $17.1MM salary that’ll see massive jumps in each of his final two seasons of arbitration-eligibility, he’s an absolute financial bargain. Soto’s arguably the best hitter on the planet, and the Nationals would only move him for a haul of controllable talent unlike one we’ve seen in years.

2. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs

While Soto’s a relatively new entrant into legitimate trade rumors, Contreras has looked a lock to go for months. The Cubs and his representatives reportedly haven’t had any extension talks. He’s an impending free agent having a career year on a non-competitive team, carrying a .258/.373/.470 line. An acquiring team could eye Contreras either as an upgrade over their #1 catcher, or as a bat-first player capable of rotating between catcher, first base and designated hitter. He’s making $9.625MM in his final year before free agency.

3. Josh Bell, 1B, Nationals

Bell also falls in the ’rental bat on a non-playoff team’ category. He’s a switch-hitter with far better bat-to-ball skills than most players with his level of power. Bell’s strikeout rate sits at a career-low 13.5%, and he owns a .302/.387/.490 line in what has been arguably the best season of his career. As with Contreras, he’s sure to be the big offensive upgrade for some contender in the next few days. Bell is playing on a $10MM salary.

4. Luis Castillo, SP, Reds

5. Frankie Montas, SP, A’s

6. Tyler Mahle, SP, Reds

This trio has been linked for virtually all of deadline season, with good reason. They’re each on teams that slashed payroll over the winter and have fallen into last place in their divisions. They’re arbitration-eligible through 2023. All three have missed some time with shoulder issues on the year, but they’re each healthy now. Most importantly, they’re all very good, at least upper mid-rotation caliber hurlers. They’re the most likely marquee starters to actually change hands.

Castillo owns a sparkling 2.86 ERA with above-average strikeout and ground-ball rates through 14 starts. He’s consistently been one of the game’s top pitchers in recent seasons, and he’s at peak form heading into the deadline. Going back to June 1, he owns a 2.62 ERA while holding opponents to a .203/.281/.318 line. Montas has an ERA of 3.37 or lower in three of the past four seasons, including a 3.18 mark in 104 2/3 frames this year. Like Castillo, he throws hard, misses bats, gets grounders and generally pounds the strike zone.

Mahle has the spottiest control of the three, but he has every bit their strikeout prowess. He’s been dramatically better on the road than at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly ballpark, so it’s easy enough to project him being a little more consistent in a friendlier environment. Mahle had a rough start to the season, but he owns a 3.22 ERA since the beginning of June.

7. Ian Happ, LF, Cubs

Happ is making contact at a career-best rate, and it’s translated to arguably the best season of his career (.282/.366/.446). He’s a well-rounded player — a switch-hitter with power, plate discipline and this season’s decent bat-to-ball skills. Happ’s probably limited to left field, but he’s a capable defender there. He’s making $6.85MM and arbitration-eligible through next season, so a trade isn’t a foregone conclusion the way it is with Contreras, but it’s probably the best opportunity for the Cubs to maximize the value of a return.

8. J.D. Martinez, DH, Red Sox

The Red Sox find themselves with an uncertain direction as they near the deadline. They’re 3 1/2 games back in the AL Wild Card race, with two additional teams between them and the final playoff spot. They have a -14 run differential on the season and a 7-17 record this month. That could point towards moving some shorter-term players, but they’re only a year removed from an ALCS appearance and it’s fair to chalk up some of their recent struggles to injury.

If the Red Sox do seriously consider offers on their impending free agents, Martinez would be perhaps the top hitter (non-Soto division) available. He’s no longer the 40-plus home run bat he was during his first couple seasons in Boston, but he owns a .295/.363/.471 line. He’s still a middle-of-the-order fixture who’d draw plenty of interest from clubs looking to add offense, even due what remains of a $19.375MM salary. Nearing age 35, Martinez would be a borderline qualifying offer candidate next winter if the Red Sox hold him.

9. Brandon Drury, INF, Reds

An offseason minor league signee, Drury has been an excellent find for the Reds. He’s hitting .268/.329/.512 with 19 homers while playing all around the infield, primarily at second/third base. An impending free agent, he’s emerged as the most interesting of the Reds rental trade chips. Paired with a thin infield market this summer, Drury should be an appealing target for a number of teams.

10. David Robertson, RP, Cubs

Robertson is probably the top target for clubs looking for short-term bullpen help. The veteran reliever has a 1.83 ERA through 39 1/3 innings with the Cubs, striking out 31.4% of batters faced. He’s issuing a few more walks than one would like, but he’s missing bats, handling hitters from both sides of the plate and has a salary that’s likely to wind up in the $5MM range. Robertson has plenty of late-game experience over his career, so a contender should feel good about plugging right into high-leverage spots in a pennant race.

11. Noah Syndergaard, SP, Angels

Syndergaard might wind up being the best rental starter to move this summer. The Angels have fallen out of the race, and Syndergaard would be ineligible for a qualifying offer as a free agent after receiving one from the Mets last year. He’s not throwing as hard or missing as many bats as he did during his peak days in Queens, but he’s pounding the strike zone and generally keeping the Halos in games. He owns a 3.83 ERA through 80 innings and looks like a possible mid-rotation target for contenders, although his $21MM salary is hefty enough it could deter teams with tight budgetary limits unless the Angels pay down some money.

12. Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Red Sox

The same dilemma the Red Sox are facing with Martinez applies to Eovaldi, who’ll be a free agent at the end of the year himself. The righty’s 4.32 ERA/4.59 FIP through 81 1/3 innings aren’t eye-catching, but that’s largely attributable to one horrible start where he gave up five home runs in 1 2/3 innings against the Astros. His strikeout rate is roughly league average, he’s one of the sport’s best control arms, and he’s inducing a fair number of ground-balls. Eovaldi probably isn’t much changed from last year’s 182 1/3 inning, 3.75 ERA form. He’s playing this year on a $17MM salary and would probably receive and reject a qualifying offer if the Red Sox keep him through the end of the season.

13. Jose Quintana, SP, Pirates

14. Drew Smyly, SP, Cubs

Quintana and Smyly are each having decent seasons as impending free agents on non-contenders. They’ll be viewed as possible 5th/6th starter options for a better team. Both southpaws have lower than average walk rates and an ERA below 4.00 despite below-average strikeout rates. Quintana, who’s playing this season on a $2MM salary, is also affordable enough to appeal to virtually every club. Smyly’s a bit costlier, making $4.25MM with a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for next season, but he’s also likely to wind up on the move.

15. Michael Fulmer, RP, Tigers

16. Mychal Givens, RP, Cubs

17. Andrew Chafin, RP, Tigers

18. Matt Moore, RP, Rangers

19. Chris Martin, RP, Cubs

A host of potential impending free agents (Chafin’s contract contains a $6.5MM player option for next season), this quintet fits the middle relief/setup archetype of which contenders are in need each deadline season. Chafin and Moore are left-handers; Fulmer, Givens and Martin throw from the right side. Moore’s missing plenty of bats during his first year after converting from the rotation to the bullpen. Chafin and Martin have excellent strikeout and walk numbers. Fulmer and Givens each have elevated walk rates but an ERA below 3.00.

20. Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, Royals

Merrifield has been a fixture on these kinds of lists for years, and it seems the Royals are more willing than ever to deal him. It’s not a great time to do so, as he has a mediocre .242/.293/.347 line on the season. Yet Merrifield has a long track record as a prototypical leadoff type, and he’s still making plenty of contact. Capable of playing second base and right field, he’s at least an appealing utility piece for a contender. Merrifield is making $7MM this year and under contract for $6.75MM next season.

21. Carlos Rodon, SP, Giants

The Giants are, in some respects, the NL analogue to the Red Sox. Fresh off a 107-win campaign, they’d certainly anticipated heading into deadline season as buyers. For a while, it seemed as if they would, but they’ve lost seven straight games to fall two games under .500. San Francisco has a positive run differential and a clearer path back to the postseason than Boston — they’re 3 1/2 out of the final playoff spot with only one team in between — but they have to give serious thought to moving some players, particularly if they fall further back over the weekend.

Rodon is likely headed for free agency after the season, having recently reached the innings threshold necessary to trigger the opt-out clause in his contract. There’d be no shortage of suitors for a pitcher with a 3.18 ERA and a 31.4% strikeout rate, his second straight year with top-of-the-rotation production. Rodon would have plenty of appeal; it’s just a question of the Giants’ willingness to move him, which would more or less require conceding the unlikelihood of a playoff berth in 2022. They’re reportedly not yet at that point.

22. Joc Pederson, LF, Giants

23. Wilmer Flores, 2B/3B, Giants

If the Giants do go that route, there’d be little reason not to follow through by looking for suitors on Pederson and Flores. They’re each impending free agents who’d draw plenty of interest. Pederson is playing on a $6MM contract; Flores is making just $3.5MM. The former is a platoon corner outfielder, but he’s popped 17 homers and carries a .244/.319/.496 line on the season. Plenty of teams could use a left-handed hitting outfielder with that kind of production. Flores has some infield flexibility and a history of hitting left-handed pitching very well. He owns a .245/.326/.437 overall mark on the year.

24. Trey Mancini, 1B, Orioles

The Orioles have kept right around the Wild Card mix, entering play Friday three games back. That progress seems like it’ll dissuade the front office from trading away controllable building blocks like Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins. Still, actually reaching the playoffs this year seems unlikely, and Mancini is headed for free agency with just a mutual option remaining on his deal. The O’s wouldn’t get an enormous return, since Mancini has slumped of late and is down to a fine but not overwhelming .268/.345/.401 season line. The club might just deem it better to hold Mancini, a beloved clubhouse and community presence, for the stretch run. He’s playing the year on a $7.5MM salary, plus a $250K buyout of next year’s option.

25. Donovan Solano, 2B/3B, Reds

26. David Peralta, OF, D-Backs

27. Ben Gamel, OF, Pirates

28. Tommy Pham, OF, Reds

A collection of solid rental bats on non-contenders, there’s a good chance for all four of Solano, Peralta, Gamel, and Pham to be dealt. Solano offers the most defensive value of the group, as he’s capable of playing second or third base. The other three are strictly corner outfielders. Solano has missed much of the year to injury but mashed in 27 games since returning. Gamel and Peralta are all solid left-handed bats who could shoulder the larger side of a platoon. Pham’s a right-handed hitter with excellent plate discipline and a capable contact/power combination.

29. Sean Murphy, C, A’s

30. Ramon Laureano, CF, A’s

The A’s sell-off has been well-chronicled. Aside from Montas, Murphy and Laureano are their two most valuable trade chips. They’re each quality defenders at up-the-middle positions (Murphy at catcher, Laureano in center field), and both have slightly above-average offensive numbers. With both arbitration-eligible through the end of the 2025 season, Oakland doesn’t have to force a deal on either player. Murphy could be the likelier to go, since the A’s have top catching prospect Shea Langeliers playing well in Triple-A.

31. Nelson Cruz, DH, Nationals

Cruz has looked like a midseason trade candidate from virtually the moment he signed with the Nationals last offseason. Washington would certainly listen, but the 42-year-old slugger looks as if he’s finally tailed off. He’s hitting only .231/.317/.347, and he carries a .229/.304/.385 line going back to last year’s trade from the Twins to the Rays. That’s not appealing output from a player with no defensive value, particularly one playing this season on a $15MM salary. Still, Cruz’s long-term track record and high regard as a clubhouse presence could get him a shot with a contender, particularly if the Nats are willing to kick in some money to facilitate a deal.

32. Scott Barlow, RP, Royals

33. Joe Jimenez, RP, Tigers

34. Joe Mantiply, RP, Diamondbacks

35. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Nationals

36. Anthony Bass, RP, Marlins

37. Gregory Soto, RP, Tigers

Everyone in this group is controllable beyond this season, and some of them will surely stick with their current clubs past the deadline. Yet they’re all good but not elite late-game arms on teams unlikely to make the postseason in 2022. It’s easy enough to envision their teams selling relatively high on anyone in this tier, with Barlow and Jimenez probably the likeliest to move.

38. Christian Vazquez, C, Red Sox

Aside from Contreras, Vazquez could wind up being the top rental catcher on the block. As with Martinez and Eovaldi, whether he moves will depend on the approach the Boston front office takes to their recent skid. Owner of a .281/.326/.432 season line with a strong defensive reputation, Vazquez would be an appealing target for teams searching for catching help. He’s playing out the final year of his deal on a $7MM salary.

39. Dominic Smith, DH, Mets

40. J.D. Davis, DH, Mets

There’s been plenty of speculation about the Mets moving one of Smith or Davis, neither of whom is hitting at the level the Mets have wanted out of the DH position. New York’s acquisitions of Daniel Vogelbach and Tyler Naquin have been the firmest indication at least one of Smith or Davis was likely to move. Smith, as a left-handed hitter, seems most displaced by the Vogelbach pickup, but the Mets reportedly remain on the hunt for further offensive upgrades. If they land another bat, perhaps both Smith and Davis could be dealt. Both hitters are arbitration-eligible through 2024.

41. Joey Gallo, OF, Yankees

42. Miguel Andujar, 3B/OF, Yankees

On the topic of struggling New York players probably displaced by a trade pickup, the Yankees would seem to be particularly motivated to move Gallo after the Benintendi deal. The blockbuster acquisition of last summer’s deadline hasn’t panned out, with Gallo hitting at just a .160/.293/.371 level in pinstripes. At his best, he’s a prodigious power bat with strong baserunning and defense, but he’s looked lost at the plate for virtually a calendar year. It may be tough for New York to find a taker. Gallo, who’s making $10.275MM, is in his final year of arbitration-eligibility. His recent struggles mean he’s not a great solution for a contender looking for an immediate corner outfield upgrade. Yet his impending free agency reduces the interest of a buy-low for a non-competitive club, with no long-term contractual control if he does turn things around in a new setting.

Andujar, meanwhile, is reportedly being shopped by the Yankees. The former AL Rookie of the Year runner-up hasn’t gotten much of an opportunity in the Bronx since shoulder surgery wiped out his 2019 season, but he’s expanded his defensive profile by learning left field and first base, and he continues to rake in the minors. Andujar requested a trade earlier this summer, and given his Triple-A production it seems likely that a club with some available corner playing time will give him a real look.

43. Pablo Lopez, SP, Marlins

44. Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers

45. Zach Plesac, SP, Guardians

46. Jose Urquidy, SP, Astros

Reports this week have suggested the clubs for all four of these hurlers are open to offers. That’s not to say any of them is especially likely to go. Lopez is controllable through 2024, Plesac and Urquidy through 2025, Skubal through ’26. The Guardians and Astros are in the thick of the playoff race. The Marlins and Tigers are not, but they’re also going to try to compete next season. It seems more likely than not that each of these pitchers remains with their club beyond next Tuesday, but each team has valid reasons for listening.

The Astros and Marlins each have an enviable collection of rotation depth and could view dealing a controllable starter as the best way to land some offensive help. The Guardians have a strong pitching development pipeline and a solid number of upper minors young arms. The Tigers rotation has been decimated by injury this year, but Skubal’s amidst a breakout season on a team that’s 19 games under .500.

47. Martin Perez, SP, Rangers

48. Chad Kuhl, SP, Rockies

49. Daniel Bard, RP, Rockies

Perez, Kuhl and Bard are impending free agents on 2022 non-contenders. They’re fairly straightforward trade candidates amidst decent seasons, but they seem less likely than the rentals above them on the list to change hands. The Rangers and Perez have expressed mutual interest in a contract extension. The Rockies seem to hope for the same with Kuhl and Bard, and Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt has already pushed back against the possibility of a major sell-off. The Rox held onto a few notable impending free agents despite having little chance of making the playoffs last summer, and they could well do so again.

50. Garrett Cooper, 1B, Marlins

The generally underrated Cooper earned an All-Star nod this season with a .279/.347/.426 showing. He’s a consistently productive right-handed hitter, and he’s playing this season on an affordable $2.5MM salary. Cooper landed on the injured list earlier this week, but he’s expressed confidence about returning when first eligible next Wednesday. He could still draw some interest, but with an additional season of arbitration eligibility, the Marlins don’t have to make a deal.

51. Blake Snell, SP, Padres

The Padres luxury tax dilemma has been covered a few times on MLBTR’s pages. The Friars have virtually no financial breathing room for midseason additions if they don’t want to exceed the $230MM base tax threshold. Dealing from their rotation surplus to free some money for upgrades elsewhere on the roster has looked like a possibility for a while. Snell, who has a 4.75 ERA and a $10MM CBT hit for the Friars, looks like the likeliest option for that kind of move. He’s under contract for next season and still striking out plenty of batters, but his overall performance in San Diego has been a bit disappointing.

52. Brad Keller, SP, Royals

Keller’s a stable back-of-the-rotation arm. He owns a 4.04 career ERA and a 4.18 mark this season while generally working as a source of about league average innings. Keller doesn’t miss bats, but he’s posted a ground-ball rate north of 50% in four of his five MLB seasons. He could appeal to a rotation-needy team with a strong defensive infield. Keller’s making $4.825MM and arbitration-eligible once more.

53. Michael A. Taylor, CF, Royals

Taylor has been one of the sport’s best defensive outfielders throughout his career. He’s never consistently produced enough at the plate to be more than a soft regular, with swing-and-miss issues his primary undoing. Taylor has dramatically cut his strikeout rate to 22.9% this season (right around league average), and his .279/.350/.402 line is a career best. Defensive metrics have been more mixed on his work than they’ve been in years past, but most clubs are still likely to view him as a plus defender. He’s making $4.5MM both this year and next, and a thin center field market could lead K.C. to sell high.

54. Lou Trivino, RP, A’s

Trivino’s ERA is ghastly, checking in a hair below 7.00. The right-hander has a strong 27.9% strikeout rate and a hefty 52.7% grounder rate, though, and today’s front offices will be willing to look deeper than the ugly run prevention mark. Trivino has had plenty of success keeping runs off the board in years past, and he’s spent some time as Oakland’s closer. Clubs will surely expect the .456 batting average on balls in play against him to come down, and he could still draw attention from teams looking for middle innings help. Trivino is making $3MM and arbitration-eligible through 2024, but the A’s are certainly willing to listen given their competitive window.

55. Jose Iglesias, SS, Rockies

Iglesias has had a decent bounceback year after signing a $5MM contract with the Rockies in Spring Training. He’s no longer the plus defender he was at his peak, but he’s continued to play shortstop in Colorado and could probably bounce all around the infield for a contender. Iglesias is a high-contact bat who would fit well in a utility role. He’s an impending free agent.

56. Rafael Ortega, CF, Cubs

Ortega is a journeyman outfielder who has played fairly well since getting a look with the Cubs last summer. He’s a .267/.346/.419 hitter in about a full season’s worth of playing time over the last two years. Ortega’s not a great defender in center field but he can moonlight there, and the thin market at the position could make him a fallback target for clubs looking to bolster the outfield depth. He’s not yet arbitration eligible (although he’s likely to get there this offseason as a Super Two player), but the Cubs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild since he’s already 31.

57. Christian Walker, 1B, D-Backs

The D-Backs are reportedly open to offers on Walker, although the extent of their urgency to move him is unclear. He’s controllable for two and a half seasons but already 31. Walker has been a slightly above-average hitter in three of the past four years. He has plenty of power, posts big exit velocities and crushes left-handed pitching. He’s also a low-OBP slugger who is limited to first base — although he rates excellently at the position.

58. Michael Wacha, SP, Red Sox

59. Rich Hill, SP, Red Sox

Wacha and Hill are each impending free agents who could move if the Red Sox sell some short-term pieces. They’re each having decent seasons. Wacha is carrying a 2.69 ERA through 13 starts; Hill, as he has for the past couple seasons, has been right around league average. They’d each be higher on this list were they not on the injured list at the moment — Wacha due to shoulder inflammation, Hill with a knee sprain. Hill began a rehab assignment on Thursday, and Wacha doesn’t seem far behind. Despite the injuries, they could still attract some interest as they near returns from the IL.

60. Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels

Insert the old adage about saving the best for last here. The Angels have reportedly at least listened to offers on Ohtani, the reigning MVP who has captivated baseball’s global fanbase with his dominance as a hitter and pitcher alike. As with Soto, it would take an overwhelming haul of prospects in order for Ohtani to actually be traded. Unlike Soto, Ohtani feels quite unlikely to be moved — hence his back-of-the-list ranking — but teams will still try.

Ohtani, 28, is earning just $5.5MM this season and will receive a sizable raise on that number in arbitration this winter. He can be a free agent following the 2023 season. Given the team’s futility during the Ohtani/Mike Trout era and Ohtani’s outspoken desire to play for a contender, it’s fair to wonder whether the Angels have a realistic chance of extending him. Asked by The Athletic’s Sam Blum just last night about his desire to stay with the Angels long-term, Ohtani side-stepped the heart of the question and concluded his reply by stating: “…Right now, I’m an Angel, and that’s all I can really focus on at this point.”

Would a team part with its top four or five prospects to add Ohtani for the next two pennant pushes? Would Angels owner Arte Moreno actually green-light the deal even if a trade partner were willing to do so? A trade seems so hard to imagine and, at the same time, perfectly logical and defensible for an Angels team with an awful farm system, crowded payroll and dwindling control over the 2021 AL MVP. He’s going to be extremely hard to pry away, but that won’t stop teams from trying.

Potential Salary Dumps of Note

• Eric Hosmer, 1B, Padres: $20.625MM salary in 2022, $13.625MM salaries from 2023-25
• Wil Myers, OF, Padres: $22.5MM salary in 2022, $20MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2023
• Patrick Corbin, SP, Nationals: $23.42MM salary in 2022, due approximately $59.8MM between 2023-24
• Madison Bumgarner, SP, D-Backs: $23MM salaries in 2022-23, $14MM salary in 2025

Controllable Impact Players Unlikely To Move

• Bryan Reynolds, David Bednar (Pirates)
• Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Jorge Lopez (Orioles)
• Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia (Astros)
• Shane Bieber (Guardians)

Others of Note

Orioles: Anthony Santander, Jordan Lyles

Red Sox: Enrique Hernandez*, Matt Strahm*, Hirokazu Sawamura

Royals: Zack Greinke, Josh Staumont, Hunter Dozier

Tigers: Tucker Barnhart, Alex Lange, Robbie Grossman, Jeimer Candelario, Michael Pineda*

Guardians: Aaron Civale, Amed Rosario

Angels: Aaron Loup, Michael Lorenzen*

Astros: Jose Siri

Athletics: Paul Blackburn, Sam Moll, Elvis Andrus, Chad Pinder

Rangers: Garrett Richards, Kole Calhoun, Brett Martin

Marlins: Joey Wendle, Jon Berti*, Brian Anderson*, Steven Okert, Dylan Floro, Tanner Scott, Jesus Aguilar, Elieser Hernandez

Nationals: Carl Edwards Jr., Yadiel Hernandez, Steve Cishek

Brewers: Kolten Wong, Jace Peterson, Pedro Severino

Cubs: Patrick Wisdom, Wade Miley*, Scott Effross

Reds: Kyle Farmer, Mike Minor, Jeff Hoffman

Pirates: JT Brubaker

Cardinals: Edmundo Sosa

Padres: Mike Clevinger, Dinelson Lamet

Giants: Brandon Belt, Dominic Leone, Austin Slater, Mike Yastrzemski

Rockies: Alex Colome, C.J. Cron, Carlos Estevez

D-Backs: Ian Kennedy, Mark Melancon, Jake McCarthy, Jordan Luplow

*Denotes player currently on the injured list

The week of the 2021 MLB Trade Deadline is upon us! We’ve seen a handful of deals thus far — Nelson Cruz to the Rays, Rich Hill to the Mets, Adam Frazier to the Padres, Joc Pederson to the Braves — but most of the market’s top names are still waiting to learn their fate. The stage is set for a chaotic few days of deal-making.

As always, this list is loosely ordered in terms of both likelihood of being traded and value to an acquiring club in a trade. Rental players are inherently going to carry less long-term value but are generally likelier to be moved by virtue of their impending free agency. Those who aren’t qualifying offer candidates are particularly likely to be flipped elsewhere. Some of those names will outrank more impactful players with a lower likelihood of being dealt.

It’s all subjective and debatable, and that’s part of the fun of the whole exercise. No one’s here for preamble, so let’s dive right into the list!

1. Max Scherzer, RHP: The Nationals are 1-5 since GM Mike Rizzo said his team’s upcoming play would determine his deadline approach, including a sweep at the hands of the Orioles and a crushing walk-off loss to one of the teams they’re directly chasing in the NL East: the Phillies. The Nats are 8.5 back in the division and 11.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. Now, the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty reports that Scherzer is open to trades and would waive his 10-and-5 no-trade rights. Scherzer’s enormous contract and deferred money still make a trade complicated to sort out, and he’s dealing with what seems to be a minor triceps issue. He’s slated to start Thursday, the day before the deadline. It seems quite possible that’ll be his Nats farewell.

2. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF/1B, Cubs: At the time of our last Top Trade Candidate list, the Cubs looked like they’d have no choice but to hold onto Bryant. However, their stay atop the NL Central is a distant memory following a catastrophic losing streak and president Jed Hoyer’s acknowledgment that his team will operate as a seller. This was probably the direction the front office envisioned all along after trading Yu Darvish this winter, and Bryant’s resurgent season has likely bolstered his value considerably. He can help clubs with outfield or corner infield needs, and his .269/.356/.500 slash would be a boost to the heart of any order. With a $19.5MM salary in 2021, however, Bryant could be a tough financial pill for some teams to swallow.

3. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Cubs: The first year-plus of Kimbrel’s time in Chicago made the team’s three-year investment in the All-Star closer look regrettable, to say the least. But the now-33-year-old Kimbrel has engineered a rebound so impressive that next year’s $16MM club option now looks like a potential bargain. Kimbrel has been better than ever in 2021, pitching to a 0.49 ERA with a superlative 46.7 percent strikeout rate and a 9.5 percent walk rate in 36 2/3 innings. The salary might limit his market, but deep pocketed clubs should all have interest in Kimbrel, who very suddenly has a good bit of trade value.

4. Starling Marte, OF, Marlins: If the Marlins truly only offered a player of Marte’s caliber three years and under $40MM on an extension, it’s hard to believe they were ever serious about extending him. Regardless, with those efforts now in the rear-view mirror, Marte is one of the best and likeliest players to be traded. He’s enjoying one of his best seasons ever at the plate — arguably his best — playing good defense and running more than he has since 2018 (21-for-24 in stolen bases). He’s a rental, and not an especially cheap one with a $12.5MM salary ($4.37MM owed post-deadline), but few players represent a larger potential upgrade.

5. Jon Gray, RHP, Rockies: Playing on a one-year, $6MM contract, Gray is one of the best and likeliest rental starters to change hands. The Rockies won’t issue him a qualifying offer, but he’s a solid enough rotation piece that the bulk of contenders in the game would consider him a decisive upgrade. Not every team would view him as a surefire postseason starter, but he’s an upgrade over nearly any club’s fourth/fifth starters.

6. Michael Pineda, RHP, Twins: Every contender could use an arm like Pineda to help deepen the rotation, and if he’s healthy, he could even be a playoff rotation option for some clubs. He’s missed a bit of time with elbow inflammation this year but returned from the IL to toss five innings of one-run ball against the White Sox. He’ll be owed $3.5MM post-deadline and has an overall 3.86 ERA, 21.5 percent strikeout rate and 5.4 percent walk rate. This is what solid deadline rentals look like.

7. Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: Story is only listed below Gray because the Rockies know they can at least get a compensatory draft pick if they make him a qualifying offer, which creates the slight chance they’ll simply hold him. That still seems unlikely, however, as Story won’t be re-signing in Colorado and is one of the best bats available on a thin trade market for infield upgrades. He isn’t having a great season, but Story’s track record alone will create interest.

8. Tyler Anderson, LHP, Pirates: The Bucs signed Anderson to soak up some starts in the first half and, ideally, move him for a modest deadline return. With 103 1/3 innings of 4.35 ERA ball spread across 18 starts, Anderson has done just that. If you throw out a nine-run meltdown in Atlanta, the ERA plummets to 3.93 in his 17 other starts. Anderson doesn’t miss tons of bats, but he’s shown excellent control while generally limiting hard contact. He won’t be a headline-grabbing addition, but for a team looking to affordably stabilize a back-of-the-rotation carousel, Anderson and his $2.5MM base salary ought to be appealing.

9. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Rangers: The latest “surprise” three-year rotation signing by the Rangers to have turned into a bargain, Gibson is durable, effective and affordable. Among pitchers controlled beyond the 2021 season, Gibson is the likeliest to be traded. It should be noted that he’s had a trio of poorly timed rough outings, but no team was going to believe he’d sustain the sub-2.00 ERA he carried into July anyhow. He’s earning $8MM next year, and most contending clubs would be pleased to plug him into the middle of the rotation.

10. Richard Rodriguez, RHP, Pirates: He’s not overpowering from a velocity standpoint, but Rodriguez has outstanding command and the ability to miss bats in bunches when he’s throwing his breaking ball at higher levels than he has in 2021. Rodriguez has a 2.98 ERA, 27.2 percent strikeout rate and 6.5 percent walk rate dating back to 2018. He’s earning just $1.7MM in 2021 and controlled two more years via arbitration. Any club looking for bullpen help should have some level of interest.

11. Joey Gallo, OF, Rangers: Gallo’s name has been on the trade market on and off for a few years now, but with free agency squarely in sight after the 2022 season and the Rangers rebuilding, this is his value’s apex. Gallo is a premium corner outfield defender with a ridiculous 19.3 percent walk rate and 24 home runs. Gallo went on a tear beginning in early June, though his bat has cooled in his past few games.

12. Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins: Berrios is one of the best arms on this summer’s market, but the asking price is accordingly exorbitant. The Twins are reported to be seeking a pre-arb Major League player and multiple top 100 prospects to part with their top starter. That’ll be a tough price to pay for any rival team, but you can hardly blame Minnesota for asking, given the dearth of available starters and the Twins’ aspirations to be competitive again as soon as 2022.

13. Merrill Kelly, RHP, D-backs: Kelly isn’t a lock to be traded, given an extremely affordable $5.25MM club option for 2022. However, with so many teams looking for rotation help and simultaneously trying to duck the luxury tax, his affordable contract and steady production make him plenty appealing. Kelly had a dismal first month of 2021 as he returned from thoracic outlet surgery, but he’s quickly begun to look like one of the better success stories from that operation in recent memory. In his past 18 starts, Kelly owns a 3.79 ERA (3.59 FIP) with a 21.7 percent strikeout rate and 5.5 percent walk rate.

14. Eduardo Escobar, 3B/2B, D-backs: Reports of an on early, on-the-verge-of-completion deal to the White Sox proved to be overstated, as other clubs jumped into the fray and slowed the pace of negotiations. But an Escobar trade is more a matter of “when” and “where” than “if.” A free-agent-to-be on baseball’s worst team, the switch-hitting Escobar will take his 22 homers and multi-positional ability to a new team before month’s end.

15. Jonathan Schoop, 1B/2B, Tigers: One of baseball’s hottest hitters since Memorial Day, Schoop is playing on a one-year, $4.5MM contract and is on pace for his best power output since his 32-homer 2017 campaign. Since June 1, Schoop has ripped a dozen homers while hitting .335 and slugging just shy of .600. There’s some sentiment out there that a meager return in a trade might not be enough for the Tigers to part with Schoop as A.J. Hinch looks to help shift to a winning culture in the clubhouse. Still, he’d make sense for clubs who covet a right-handed-hitting infielder.

16. Trea Turner, SS, Nationals: GM Mike Rizzo has gone on record saying that if the team goes into sell mode, that “anything is on the table, I would think.” Trading Turner would be immensely difficult for the Nats, both due to his general excellence and the team’s perennial win-now mindset. But MLB Network’s Peter Gammons reported this week that ownership doesn’t seem incline to extend Turner, and the 2021 season has largely slipped away from the Nationals. This would take an enormous return, but what might’ve seemed like fantasy a week ago is now relatively plausible. The Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes reported last night that interest in Turner is quite strong.

17. Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, Royals: A perennial entrant in the July rumor extravaganza, Merrifield is reported to be “more” available than he was in years past. Of course, he was completely off limits in 2018 and almost entirely off limits in 2019, so that’s not a high bar to clear. Merrifield’s bat is coming around after a slow month of May, and he’s leading the league in steals. His contract is eminently affordable and keeps him under club control through 2023. The Royals are trying to win now, so they’ll want MLB-ready pieces in return. A trade still seems like a long shot.

18. Zach Davies, RHP, Cubs: Davies owns a respectable 4.30 ERA through 21 starts for the Cubs in 2021. That’s where most of the good news ends, however, as Davies is sporting a 15.5 percent strikeout rate against a career-worst 11.9 percent walk rate and is averaging fewer than five innings per start. The 3.5 percent differential between his strikeout rate and walk rate ranks dead last among qualified starters (by a wide margin). Davis is durable and was much better than this in 2019-20, but his lackluster results and $8.625MM salary will prevent the Cubs from getting too much in return.

19. C.J. Cron, 1B, Rockies: Cron signed a minor league deal that carried just a $1MM base salary, and he’s provided a nice return on that modest investment by the Rox. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end. There are plenty of clubs that could use a cheap rental either at first base/designated hitter or just as a right-handed bat off the bench. Cron, as usual, has held his own against righties and decimated left-handed pitching.

20. Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Indians: Cleveland is nine games back in the division and five back from a Wild Card spot. They’re certainly not out of postseason contention, but with Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale sidelined, they’re sending out Zach Plesac and a collection of rookies in the rotation. Their odds don’t look great at the moment. Hernandez is on an affordable $5MM salary with a $6MM option for 2022. That option could mean he simply stays put, but Hernandez could appeal to clubs looking for affordable infield help.

21. Daniel Bard, RHP, Rockies: Bard has thrown 65 2/3 innings since making his remarkable return to the Majors last season and has posted a 3.86 ERA with a 27.2 percent strikeout rate and 10.2 percent walk rate in that time. He’s been the Rockies’ go-to option in the ninth inning for much of that time. The 36-year-old is actually controlled into 2022 via arbitration, so he could hold more appeal than many of the run of rental relievers to follow immediately.

22. Ian Kennedy, RHP, Rangers: Kennedy is the quintessential veteran relief rental. He’s having a resurgent season for a last-place Rangers club that inked him to a no-risk minor league deal over the winter. This type of scenario is why rebuilding teams sign players like Kennedy. His days in Texas are numbered. (Well, unless the Astros acquire him.)

23. Ryan Tepera, RHP, Cubs: Make all the “MVP” jokes you like after last year’s tenth-place vote — Tepera is pitching the best ball of his career in 2021. The 33-year-old’s strikeout rate is down a bit from 2020 (34.8 percent to 30.3 percent), but his walk rate has improved by six percent as well. Tepera has one of the best ground-ball rates of his career, one of his best homer-to-flyball rates and is sporting a 2.91 ERA. He’s also earning just $800K. You want an affordable rental reliever? Here’s your guy.

24. Daniel Hudson, RHP, Nationals: This is arguably the best Hudson we’ve ever seen. He’s striking out a career-high 38.5 percent of opponents against a career-best 5.7 percent walk rate. The 34-year-old’s 2.27 ERA is one of the best marks on this list, and he’s currently pitching high-leverage innings for a Nationals club that is eight games back in the NL East and 11 back in the Wild Card hunt. It’s looking likelier and likelier that Washington bites the bullet and moves some veteran players.

25. Mychal Givens, RHP, Rockies: An impending free-agent reliever with a solid track record in the midst of another quality season, Givens is an obvious trade candidate for the Rockies as they look to sell veteran pieces. He’s earning $4.05MM in 2021, and while his strikeout rate isn’t where it was at its peak, it’s not too far off. Givens has a sub-3.00 ERA while pitching his home games at Coors Field and will be owed $1.42MM post-deadline.

26. Joakim Soria, RHP, D-backs: With a 2.70 ERA and a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio in 13 1/3 frames over the last month, Soria has begun to right the ship at the best possible time for the Snakes. He’s a proven veteran reliever playing on a one-year $3.5MM deal for MLB’s worst team. It’d be a shock if he still pitched for the D-backs come July 31.

27. Yimi Garcia, RHP, Marlins: Garcia, 31 next month, has had a generally solid season but has seen a pair of recent hiccups boost his ERA by nearly a whole run. He’s still sitting in the mid-3.00s with a slightly below-average strikeout rate and above-average control. He has a 3.17 ERA in 113 2/3 innings dating back to 2019 and is pitching on a $1.9MM salary.

28. Hansel Robles, RHP, Twins: Robles might’ve looked a bit more appealing before a recent stretch that’s seen him surrender 10 earned runs in 9 2/3 frames, but as a hard-throwing reliever with late-inning experience, he’s still a candidate to change hands. Robles walks too many and has recently given up a few untimely long balls, but his overall body of work this season has been serviceable — particularly considering his $2MM salary.

29. Brad Hand, LHP, Nationals: Hand is a big name whose performance probably doesn’t quite align with his reputation among fans. It’s worth remembering that he went unclaimed on waivers at the end of the 2020 season when any team could’ve had him for $10MM. He eventually topped that by a measure of $500K in free agency, but most clubs seemingly weren’t keen on paying him at this rate less than a year ago. Now, he’s sitting on his worst strikeout rate since moving to the bullpen (23 percent) and his highest walk rate (9.8 percent). His fastball has bounced back from a 2020 dip, but Hand isn’t quite the trade chip for a reeling Nats team that some would expect based on his name value. Last night’s blown save in a pivotal game for the Nats couldn’t have helped his stock.

30. Bryan Shaw, RHP, Indians: It’s been a nice rebound year for Shaw in many ways. He’s sporting a sub-3.00 ERA with a career-high 27.6 percent strikeout rate. He’s also walking more hitters than ever before, however, and his 48.6 percent grounder rate is down about six percent from his peak. Walking 15 percent of your opponents is going to give some teams pause, but Shaw is playing on a $1MM salary, so those with luxury concerns might overlook the spotty control and focus on the salary. Again, the Indians could just hold onto all their potential trade pieces, but they’re a long shot for the playoffs and Shaw will generate interest.

31. Javier Baez, SS, Cubs: Yet another Cubs rental, Baez is one of the game’s flashiest defenders and has long been a fan favorite in Chicago. His free-swinging ways have worsened in 2021, though, as he’s punching out in nearly 37 percent of his plate appearances and sitting on a lowly .287 OBP. Baez’s power offsets that to an extent (22 home runs, .239 ISO, 105 wRC+), but he’s chasing more than ever and making contact at his worst rate since his rookie season. While some hitters have improved since the league came down on pitcher substance usage, Baez’s numbers have gotten worse. He also suffered an apparent foot/leg injury Sunday, though he sure didn’t look to hobbled when ripping last night’s walk-off hit.

32. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs: Rizzo is hitting better than he did in 2020, but he’s still a good way from his peak form. A .248/.346/.441 batting line is comfortably above league average (114 wRC+), but it’s a far-cry from the borderline-MVP level of offense Rizzo has produced in the past. He’s making $16.5MM in 2021, so while he’s a big name with a big track record, he might not carry the trade value some would expect.

33. Caleb Smith, LHP, D-backs: Smith was pitching quite well for Arizona, but his numbers ballooned after the Dodgers ambushed him for nine runs in his final start of the first half. He’s still carrying a 4.61 ERA with an above-average strikeout rate, but that ERA was at 3.45 prior to his Dodgers encounter. Smith will soon turn 30, and while he doesn’t have great command, he misses plenty of bats and has two years of control remaining beyond the current campaign. He’s also earning just $1.465MM in 2021, so he’s a possible target for teams with luxury concerns.

34. Adam Duvall, OF, Marlins: Duvall, 33 in September, is playing his usual game — big power, dismal OBP, good corner-outfield defense. An OBP in the .280 range isn’t going to appeal to modern front offices (hence his offseason non-tender and subsequent one-year deal), and his uncharacteristic struggles against lefties in 2021 don’t help his value. Still, a club looking for some right-handed pop and a nice glove in the corners could have interest. Duvall has a mutual option that’s unlikely to be exercised by both parties — all mutual options are — but he’s also controllable another year via arbitration.

35. Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Marlins: Aguilar has been rock-solid since joining the Marlins in the 2019-20 offseason, clubbing 25 homers with a 117 wRC+ in 148 games. He’ll be due one more raise on this year’s $4.35MM salary before reaching free agency post-2022, and the Marlins might look to cash in on his success right now. They could pursue a more affordable replacement this winter or turn to one of multiple in-house alternatives.

36. Michael A. Taylor, OF, Royals: Taylor isn’t a star, but there aren’t many center fielders available this summer. A .244/.302/.357 batting line isn’t much to look at, but MAT is a lights-out defender in center with a little pop and some speed. He’s also on a $1.75MM deal, making him a nice fourth-outfield target for a team looking to upgrade its bench.

37. Josh Harrison, 2B/3B/LF, Nationals: Harrison hasn’t stopped hitting since the Nats signed him back in 2020. He’s appeared in 120 games and tallied 438 plate appearances while batting .282/.357/.408 with eight homers, 21 doubles and six steals. He’s playing on a $1MM base salary and can handle multiple infield positions as well as the outfield corners. If the Nats sell, Harrison is a pending free agent who several clubs would be happy to add to their bench mix.

38. Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, D-backs: A reasonably productive 35-year-old veteran on a one-year, $1.75MM deal with MLB’s worst club? That’s pretty much the definition of a trade candidate. Cabrera isn’t a shortstop anymore, but he can play the other three infield slots. He’s a switch-hitter with a roughly average offensive line in 2021. He might not be an impact addition to starting lineup, but Cabrera is a solid bench pickup for a contender.

39. David Peralta, OF, D-backs: This hasn’t been Peralta’s best year, but he was an above-average bat each season from 2017-20 — including a 30-homer, career year in 2018. Peralta is hitting the ball on the ground and popping up a bit more often now, which hasn’t helped his output, but he’s a generally solid corner-outfield bat on a reasonable contract. He’s earning $8MM this year and $7.5MM in 2022 (that number will increase to $8MM with 150 days on an active roster in ’21). Peralta hit .290/.348/.471 in more than 1800 PAs from 2017-20.

40. Robbie Grossman, OF, Tigers: Signed to a two-year, $10MM deal this past winter, Grossman has given the Tigers some power, speed and a strong walk rate. His BABIP is down this season, but that’s largely because he’s hitting fly-balls at a career-high rate. This version of Grossman is a low-average, high-OBP switch-hitter with some value on the bases (12 steals) and average corner outfield defense. The return in a trade probably wouldn’t be huge, so the Tigers could easily hold onto him.

41. Taylor Rogers, LHP, Twins: Rogers recently had a four-run meltdown that pushed his ERA back into the mid-3.00s, but he’s sitting on a career-best 35.5 percent strikeout rate against a tiny 4.8 percent walk rate. His 50 percent ground-ball rate is well above the league average, he has closing experience, and he’s effective against both lefties and righties alike. He’s also controlled into 2022. There aren’t many more desirable relievers out there this summer. Rogers was set to appear higher on this list, but last night’s apparent finger/hand injury makes a trade less likely.

42. Dylan Floro, RHP, Marlins: Another Marlins reliever, Floro is a weak-contact specialist with strong ground-ball numbers and a passable but below-average strikeout rate. He’s walking an abnormal number of hitters in 2021 but is generally solid in that regard. He’s controlled two more seasons, but that didn’t stop Miami from trading Adam Cimber to the Jays earlier this summer.

43. Paul Fry, LHP, Orioles: Fry has quietly stepped up as a solid lefty in the Baltimore ’pen. He isn’t a well-known name, which happens when you’re throwing late innings on a last-place club, but Fry carries a 3.24 ERA dating back to last year. His 31.4 percent strikeout rate is a career-high. Fry won’t be arb-eligible until this winter and is controllable through 2024.

44. Jose Cisnero, RHP, Tigers: Cisnero went nearly five years between MLB appearances, pitching in Mexico and in the Dominican Winter League before the Tigers pulled him back into affiliated ball. It’s been an underrated move that has paid considerable dividends, as Cisnero has given them 107 1/3 innings of 3.44 ERA ball with a 26.9 percent strikeout rate against a 10.1 percent walk rate. The 32-year-old is playing on a $970K salary, is controlled two more years beyond 2021, and is averaging 97.1 mph on his heater this year.

45. Tyler Duffey, RHP, Twins: Duffey hasn’t looked like the dominant reliever he was in 2019-20, as his K-BB numbers have gone in the wrong direction. That said, he’s earning just $2.2MM in 2021 and, after giving up three runs in an inning of work back on May 20, has given up a combined three earned runs in his last 22 innings. The K-BB downturn won’t sit well with some clubs, but Duffey is a solid reliever who another team might dream on a bit when looking at his brilliant 2019-20 output.

46. Caleb Thielbar, LHP, Twins: While he’s controlled through 2024, Thielbar is also a 34-year-old whom the Twins plucked out of indie ball after a five-year absence from MLB prior to the 2020 season. He’s returned to the bigs with 57 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball and a 29.7 percent strikeout rate. As a hometown guy who went through an odyssey to get back to the Majors, Thielbar is a feel-good story in Minnesota, but he’s also a cheap, controllable lefty in his mid-30s. The Twins would surely consider cashing in if someone made a decent offer.

47. Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Angels: Iglesias is fourth among qualified relievers with a 1.92 SIERA and fifth with a 34.8 K-BB%. He’s punching out more hitters than ever before while showing some of the best command of his career. If the Angels fall further back than their current five-game deficit in the Wild Card standings between now and Friday’s deadline, Iglesias would shoot up this list in a hurry. Every contending club would want him.

48. Alex Cobb, RHP, Angels: A lot of the Angels’ pitching acquisitions in recent years haven’t panned out, but Cobb has worked out brilliantly. The move puzzled many onlookers at the time, myself included, but Cobb has rebounded with 77 2/3 innings of 3.82 ERA ball, a career-best 25.7 percent strikeout rate, an 8.0 percent walk rate and a big 53.8 percent grounder rate. The O’s are paying most of his salary, so he’s only owed about $1.75MM post-deadline.

49. Andrew Heaney, LHP, Angels: A 5.32 ERA isn’t going to drum up much interest among fans, but teams are going to look at Heaney’s 20.5 K-BB% and several other secondary markers when evaluating him. Heaney misses bats in droves and will only be owed about $2.38MM post-deadline. He’s a free agent at season’s end. It’s easy to see someone rolling the dice on the strikeout and walk tendencies….that is, if the Angels sell.

50. Charlie Morton, RHP, Braves: Speaking of “…if they sell” teams and their starting pitchers, Morton is the most appealing rental arm on a Braves club that is five back in the division and eight back in the Wild Card. Atlanta’s next five games are against the division-leading Mets. A big showing will likely embolden the Braves to make some more additions, but if the Mets take the majority of these games or even sweep them, Morton and other Braves could find themselves on the block. Morton, who’s being paid $15MM in 2021, has a 3.65 ERA overall and a 2.40 mark since mid-June.

51. Drew Smyly, LHP, Braves: It’s a similar story with Smyly, Atlanta’s other one-year rotation pickup for the 2021 season. He got out to a rocky start but has a strong 2.76 ERA since late May. He’s only averaging five innings per start and is on an $11MM contract, but Smyly would be a logical target for contending clubs if the Braves fall to the Mets in decisive fashion this week.

52. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs: Contreras isn’t an impending free agent like most other Cubs on this list and can be controlled into ’22 more affordably than Kimbrel, so there’s less of a “need” for Chicago to deal him. He’s in the midst of a fine season, however, and there aren’t many starting-caliber catchers who could change hands this summer. He’ll draw interest, both as an immediate upgrade and as a potential gamechanger for a team in 2022.

53. Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Cubs: Signed through 2023 with a club option for the 2024 season, Hendricks would be one of the best arms on the market if the Cubs seriously entertain moving him. There’s no urgency for them to do that, however, and trading Hendricks would send a much different message than dealing impending free agents like Bryant, Baez, Rizzo and the already-traded Joc Pederson. Hendricks is owed $14MM in each of the next two seasons and can be kept for a third season on a $16MM option ($1.5MM buyout). The Cubs aren’t actively shopping him, it seems, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t be had in the right deal.

54. Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Orioles: He hasn’t produced at quite the same level as in 2019, but Mancini looks every bit the part of a middle-of-the-order threat in his return from last year’s cancer diagnosis. Trading him wouldn’t sit well with fans and might not go over well in the clubhouse. Mancini is the heart of the team, and his return from stage three colon cancer has been a bright light in an otherwise ugly Orioles season. Teams will be calling on Mancini, who’ll be one of the better bats available, but as several former GMs explained in talking with The Athletic’s Dan Connolly last month, it’s a difficult spot for Mike Elias and his staff in Baltimore.

55. John Means, LHP, Orioles: Speaking of tough Orioles decisions, earlier this year it looked like Means would draw as much interest as any starter in the game. Means missed six weeks with a shoulder strain, however, and hasn’t been sharp since his return (nine runs in 11 2/3 innings). There’s no way the O’s would trade three and a half years of Means for anything less than a haul, but his recent injury and a pair of wobbly starts in his return might make that hard to come by. It’d be a surprise if teams didn’t at least try over the next few days, but Means felt like a long shot in the first place because of that remaining club control, and now the odds feel even slimmer.

56. Max Kepler, OF, Twins: Kepler’s name has popped up in connection with the Yankees recently, and other clubs would surely have interest because of the affordable five-year, $35MM contract extension he signed a few years back. Kepler had a poor start to the season, but he’s hitting .263/.325/.579 with seven homers in July, boosting his season line to .219/.305/.458. He’s an impact defender in right field who can also handle center. Outfield is a position of depth/strength for the Twins, so perhaps they’d move him if they could get controllable pitching back — but the price would likely be high.

57. Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pirates: It’d take something overwhelming for the Bucs to move four-plus years of Reynolds when he’s already set a new career-best in home runs and is sitting just shy of .400 in the OBP column. Reynolds has the look of a foundational piece, and at the very least, the Pirates know that his value would be just as great this offseason or next summer. There are so many contenders looking for outfield help — center, in particular — that GM Ben Cherington will allow himself the opportunity to be overwhelmed. However, it seems likelier that Reynolds will stay put.

58. Cedric Mullins, OF, Orioles: Mullins isn’t likely to be moved, but he’s on the list because of A) the impact he’d bring to a new club, B) the demand for center fielders and C) the lack of quality options out there. Baltimore GM Mike Elias won’t be inclined to move Mullins, but a team could certainly try to overwhelm him. Elias’ former team, the Astros, is looking for a center fielder. The Phillies, Mets, Giants and Yankees have all been connected to center field help. Other teams with corner needs figure to have keen interest here, too. Mullins has played like a legitimate superstar  and has four years of control after 2021, though, so the asking price would be almost comical.

59. German Marquez, RHP, Rockies: Marquez and the aforementioned Berrios will draw the most interest among controllable arms, but manager Bud Black said earlier this summer that the Rox have already told Marquez he won’t be traded. A Godfather offer could always change that thinking, but if the organization promises a player he’s staying put and he’s ultimately moved anyway, that’s not going to sit well with current players or during future free agent/extension negotiations. Black isn’t the GM, but that was as strong an on-record statement as you’ll see from someone of his status.

60: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Padres: The Padres are reportedly discussing creative scenarios to get the remainder of Hosmer’s eight-year, $144MM contract off the books. It was a head-scratching contract at the time, and Hosmer has gone on to provide league-average offense in his three-plus years in San Diego. This won’t be an easy one to move, but it’s hard to blame them for looking into the possibility. (Ditto Wil Myers, if they go that route.)

Notable Names to Watch on the Injured List

Ketel Marte, OF/2B, D-backs

Byron Buxton, OF, Twins

Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers

Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers

Garrett Cooper, 1B/OF, Marlins:

Danny Duffy, LHP, Royals

Kyle Schwarber, OF, Nationals

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds

Colin Moran, 1B, Pirates

Others to Watch

Cubs: Jake Arrieta, Dan Winkler, David Bote, Matt Duffy, Jake Marisnick

D-backs: Tyler Clippard, Kole Calhoun, Madison Bumgarner, Josh Reddick, Noe Ramirez

Indians: Eddie Rosario, Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges

Mariners: Mitch Haniger, Kendall Graveman

Marlins: Richard Bleier, Anthony Bender, Anthony Bass, John Curtiss

Nationals: Jon Lester, Josh Bell, Gerardo Parra

Orioles: Cole Sulser, Matt Harvey, Tanner Scott, Anthony Santander

Pirates: Jacob Stallings, Chris Stratton

Reds: Tucker Barnhart, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Tyler Naquin

Royals: Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi, Greg Holland, Mike Minor

Tigers: Jose Urena, Daniel Norris, Derek Holland

Twins: Josh Donaldson, Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ, Alex Colome, Kenta Maeda

Yankees: Clint Frazier, Gary Sanchez, Miguel Andujar, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Gleyber Torres

Memorial Day is behind us, which is typically the time of year that teams at least begin to shift their focus to the summer trade market. With this year’s draft pushed back to July, it’s possible some clubs will look to be active a bit earlier than usual. Even if things don’t really pick up until next month, as is typically the case, we at least have some semblance of an idea as to how things will play out.

As in past years, this list aims to rank players on a combination of likelihood of being moved and overall value as a trade chip. It’s all subjective, of course, but “value” in this instance is a reference to a player’s on-field production, salary, remaining club control, etc.

Club control and salary dovetail nicely with a player’s likelihood of being moved. Rebuilding clubs and clear sellers are obviously more likely to move impending free agents — particularly those who aren’t candidates to receive a qualifying offer. Players with one extra year of control are also frequently moved at the deadline, but once you start getting into players with two, three and four years of affordable control remaining, the likelihood diminishes. The composition of a club’s farm system comes into play, too. Does a veteran with a year and a half of club control remaining have a top prospect breathing down his neck? Is the team’s farm so bleak that it needs to consider moving players with several years of control remaining? There are many factors to consider.

As the deadline draws nearer, the names on the list will change. Teams will fall out of contention, and some who look far from the top of their division will make a surge. Injuries or poor performance will sap some players’ value, while a return to health or a turnaround on the field could boost the performance of others. Again, it’s subjective and highly debatable, which is part of what makes the whole thing a fun exercise.

On to the list!

1. Jon Gray, RHP, Rockies: The Rockies turned over their front office earlier this year after yet another lackluster start, and Gray stands out as the likeliest trade candidate on the roster. The former No. 3 overall pick and top prospect is in the midst of a solid rebound campaign, but he’ll be a free agent at season’s end. The Rockies probably wouldn’t issue a qualifying offer without a huge finish to the year, and starting pitching is always in demand at the deadline.

2. Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: While Gray may be something of a borderline QO candidate, Story seems like a lock to receive a qualifying offer if he isn’t traded. That’s the key difference between him and Gray in terms of trade likelihood; the Rox need to feel that whatever they receive in return is more valuable than that 2022 draft pick. It should be noted that outside of a brief hot streak from mid-April to early May, Story hasn’t really hit much in 2021. He’s also on the IL with what the team has termed minor elbow inflammation, and the hope is his stint will last only 10 days. Story is also striking out at a career-low 22.4 percent clip without sacrificing anything in the walk department, and his track record is so strong that if he shows his health in the next few weeks, interest should be robust.

3. Mitch Haniger, OF, Mariners: It was great to see Haniger take the field at all after his 2019-20 seasons were derailed by a bizarre series of escalating injuries, but the fact that he’s returned as one of the American League’s most productive hitters only makes his story better. They’re enjoying the comeback in Seattle for now, but Haniger only has a year of control remaining beyond the 2021 season. With a deep crop of young outfielders on which to rely — 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, plus top prospects Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Taylor Trammell — the Mariners seem likely to explore the market for Haniger this summer. He’s earning $3.01MM in 2021.

4. Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers: The Tigers held onto Boyd when he was one of the most oft-mentioned trade candidates in the game in 2019, but their club control on him is beginning to dwindle. Boyd is eligible for free agency after the 2022 season, and he’s enjoying a nice year thanks largely to a new-look changeup that has helped him neutralize opposing right-handers. So long as Boyd stays healthy and reasonably effective, this summer will be his trade value’s apex. It’s hard to see him sticking around into August.

5. Tyler Anderson, LHP, Pirates: Anderson’s signing couldn’t have worked out much better for the Bucs so far. He’s pitching his best baseball since his rookie year in 2016 and sporting career-best marks in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate. Durability is a major question mark for Anderson, who has only twice started 25 games in a season. But he’s been healthy since Opening Day 2020, and his $2.5MM base salary is a bargain for clubs in need of some reinforcements at the back of the rotation.

6. Adam Frazier, 2B/OF, Pirates: Frazier has put last year’s awful season in the rear-view mirror and is in the midst of the best start of his six-year career. The 29-year-old has ample experience at second base and in the outfield, and he could fill in as a starter or versatile bench option for any contending club. His $4.3MM salary is, incredibly, the second-largest on the Pirates behind Gregory Polanco, but that’s an eminently affordable price for Frazier even if he reverts back to his typical, roughly league-average level of offensive output.

7. Richard Rodriguez, RHP, Pirates: One of the most anonymous high-end relievers in the game, the 31-year-old Rodriguez boasts a 2.84 ERA, a 27.4 percent strikeout rate and a 6.7 percent walk rate dating back to 2018 with the Pirates. He’s not flashy, sitting 93.2 mph with his heater, but Rodriguez gets the job done and is controllable all the way through 2023. Any team seeking a high-leverage reliever could acquire two and a half years of his services this summer, and given his $1.7MM salary in 2021, his subsequent arbitration raises won’t break the bank.

8. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Rangers: Gibson’s 2020 season was a nightmare, and the 2021 campaign looked to be more of the same after he couldn’t escape the first inning of his first start. Since that awful 2021 debut? All Gibson has done is pitch 54 innings of 1.50 ERA ball with a 53.7 percent grounder rate and the lowest walk rate of his career. His strikeout rate is below-average, he’s not going to sustain the .214 BABIP he’s logged over those eight starts, and his 81.7 percent strand rate is due for a correction as well. But even with some regression baked in, Gibson looks like the latest veteran to outperform a modestly-priced three-year deal in Texas. He’s on the IL with a groin injury at the moment but is reportedly looking at a fairly minimal stint.

9. Ian Kennedy, RHP, Rangers: Kennedy has had more success than arguably any pitcher who inked a minor league deal this winter, rejuvenating his career with a dominant showing as the Rangers’ closer. He’s among baseball’s leaders in saves and is doing so with a revitalized heater, a strikeout rate north of 31 percent and the lowest walk rate of his career. That minor league pact came with a $2.15MM base salary, which makes Kennedy affordable for any team in need of bullpen help. He’s a free agent at season’s end, but he looks like one of the better bullpen rentals out there.

10. Kendall Graveman, RHP, Mariners: Another reliever rental in the AL West, Graveman has gone from a solid fourth starter to someone who looks like a potentially overpowering bullpen piece. His sinker velocity has soared since he moved to short stints after an IL stint in 2020, and he’s emerged as the Mariners’ closer on the back of a 26 2/3-inning run during which he’s posted a 1.35 ERA with a 22-to-6 K/BB ratio and a 50 percent ground-ball rate. He’s currently on the Covid-related IL, but Graveman hasn’t surrendered a run in 16 2/3 frames this season. He’s on a one-year, $1.25MM deal with incentives that can max it out at $3.75MM. This is the type of reliever every buyer will want.

11. Yimi Garcia, RHP, Marlins: The Dodgers’ decision to non-tender Garcia in 2019 has proven regrettable. Since joining the Fish on a $1.1MM deal that winter, Garcia has turned in 36 2/3 innings of 1.23 ERA ball, striking out 29.2 percent of opponents and walking just 6.8 percent of them along the way. He’s on a small $1.9MM salary in 2021 and will be a free agent at season’s end, making him an appealing rental option for teams in need of relief help (which ought to be nearly every contender).

12. David Peralta, OF, Diamondbacks: Peralta, 34 this summer, hasn’t recaptured his 30-homer pace from the 2018 season but has been an above-average bat and solid corner defender throughout his career. When the deadline rolls around, he’ll be halfway through a three-year, $22MM extension on a D-backs club that has been among the worst in the game. He generally struggles against lefties, but Peralta mashes right-handed pitching and would be a boost to any club looking for some left-handed pop — particularly if said club has a solid right-handed pairing for him. He’s earning $7.5MM in 2021 and has the same salary in 2022.

13. Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers: Like Boyd, Fulmer has a year of control beyond the 2021 campaign and was an oft-mentioned trade candidate earlier in his career. It’s a little easier to see why Fulmer wasn’t moved, as trading a former AL Rookie of the Year when he had four or even five years of club control remaining would’ve required a massive haul. By the time he was in a more conventional window to be moved, injuries had wrecked multiple seasons for the righty. Those look to be in the past now, however, as Fulmer has seamlessly moved from the rotation to the ’pen, stepping up as Detroit’s closer in 2021. His fastball velocity is as good as ever now that he’s working in short stints, and Fulmer boasts career-best marks in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate. He’s owed a raise on his $3.1MM salary in arbitration this winter, but that looks plenty reasonable for this version of the right-hander.

14. C.J. Cron, 1B, Rockies: Cron’s minor league pact with the Rox could scarcely have gone better thus far. He’s proven that his surgically repaired knee is healthy, which was about the only question mark surrounding him given that Cron has hit pretty much since the day he made his MLB debut. He’s not an elite defensive first baseman and doesn’t really offer any versatility, but he’s a solid everyday option at first or DH. Cron is a bit above average against righties and absolutely punishes lefties. His deal came with just a $1MM base salary at the MLB level, so he’s not going to break the bank. Teams have generally devalued first base/DH-only sluggers in recent years, but Cron will draw interest and fetch the Rockies a prospect or two.

15. Michael Pineda, RHP, Twins: Minnesota is probably baseball’s most disappointing team, and at 22-31, things are looking bleak. Pineda stands as the most logical rental candidate they could market, though the Twins’ offseason consisted entirely of one-year free-agent signings, so they surely have others. Pineda should have the broadest market, however, as most contenders will be looking for solid rotation pieces, and he certainly fits the bill. Pineda is playing out the second season of a two-year, $20MM deal and will be a free agent this winter. Barring a major winning streak in Minnesota, he figures to be available.

16-17. Dylan Bundy (RHP) & Andrew Heaney (LHP), Angels: Bundy has been rocked in his past three starts, which has sent his ERA spiking to 6.50. His velocity is up this season over its 2020 levels, however, and he’s sporting similar marks in K-BB%, SIERA and other secondary indicators that he carried during his excellent 2020 season. If Bundy continues to struggle with the long ball, which has been an issue for him in the past, then his stock will obviously dip. If he looks like he did in 2020 or through his first six starts of this season, however, he’ll be one of the market’s more in-demand rentals. It’s a somewhat similar tale for Heaney, who has had a roller-coaster season beginning with a miserable season debut. He’s sporting a 5.24 ERA but with demonstrably better K-BB numbers and fielding-independent marks. With the Angels six games under .500, Mike Trout absent for another six to seven weeks and a new front office regime installed, the Angels could sell off some short-term pieces.

18. Jose Urena, RHP, Tigers: A hard-throwing 29-year-old, Urena doesn’t miss many bats but is inducing grounders at a 54.3 percent clip and has been a generally solid fifth starter for a rebuilding Tigers club that is all but certain to flip him if a decent offer presents itself. Urena has a 4.14 ERA in 54 1/3 frames, albeit with a poor 15 percent strikeout rate and a pedestrian 9.4 percent walk rate. He’s unlikely to factor into a club’s playoff rotation unless injuries necessitate it, but for a postseason hopeful looking for some stability at the back of the rotation for the season’s final few months, Urena is a decent, low-cost option. He signed a one-year, $3.3MM deal with Detrot this winter.

19. Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Angels: The 31-year-old has run into some uncharacteristic homer troubles since being traded to the Halos, but he’s also sporting the best K-BB% of his career thanks to a career-best 35.1 percent strikeout rate and a career-low 3.9 percent walk rate. His ERA is just shy of 5.00, but most teams will expect that number to trend downward in the months to come. Iglesias is second among 184 qualified relievers with a 21.1 percent swinging-strike rate, and his 37.9 percent chase rate is tied for 19th.

20. Joey Gallo, OF, Rangers: Gallo is drawing walks at a career-high clip, and his strikeout rate is “down” to a career-low 34 percent. His power numbers have trended downward since Opening Day 2020, however, and if Gallo isn’t hitting like a 30- or 40-home run threat by this summer, the offers probably won’t be enough for Texas to consider a move. Playing on a $6.2MM salary for the current season, Gallo is controllable through the 2022 campaign.

21. Nelson Cruz, DH, Twins: Cruz is in his third season with Minnesota and has become an invaluable leader and integral part of the clubhouse. Trading him would be a difficult move, and his market will likely be limited to AL suitors. The Twins are likely hoping a big June showing for their team can get them back into the postseason hunt, but it’s increasingly tough to ignore a 22-31 record and a 10.5-game deficit in the division. If they’re still nowhere near contending as July 30 approaches, Cruz could be the most impactful bat moved at this year’s deadline.

22-23. Eduardo Escobar & Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Diamondbacks: The D-backs hold one of the game’s worst records. Escobar and Cabrera are reasonably productive veterans who are impending free agents. It’s a pretty textbook formula for a trade. Escobar slumped to a .269 OBP since 2020, but he’s also been dogged by a .241 average on balls in play during that time — well down from his career .290 mark. He’s never drawn many walks, so the BABIP dip has been particularly harmful to his batting line. That said, his power is back in 2021 after a brief disappearance in 2020. The 32-year-old is solid at second or third, can handle left field or shortstop in a pinch, and is playing on a reasonable $7.5MM salary. The switch-hitting Cabrera, meanwhile, just keeps on producing, even at 35 years of age. He’s no longer a shortstop, but Cabrera can handle either infield corner and second base. He’s been an average or better hitter every season since 2015, and this year has been perhaps the best start of his generally underrated career. Playing on just a $1.75MM salary this season, he’d be a boost to any contending club’s infield mix, although he’s currently on the injured list with a right hamstring strain.

24. Michael A. Taylor, OF, Royals: The longtime Nats outfielder inked a one-year deal with the Royals after getting non-tendered and is out to a .256/.308/.397 start in 169 plate appearances. Taylor isn’t a great hitter, but he’s a plus defender with some home run power who can swipe a handful of bases in a given year. Considering the number of clubs dealing with outfield injuries — in center field in particular — Taylor represents a fine stopgap who can later shift to a bench role. He’s playing on a cheap $1.75MM base salary, which makes him affordable for just about any team.

25. Merrill Kelly, RHP, Diamondbacks: I profiled Kelly as one of the game’s more appealing under-the-radar trade chips last summer. He promptly went on the injured list thereafter, and within weeks was headed for thoracic outlet surgery. Sorry, Merrill. He’s back healthy in 2021, and while the results haven’t been as good this year, Kelly is sporting solid K-BB numbers and has really been plagued by a poor strand rate. Looking past his smallish-sample ERA, his skill set appears pretty similar to that of the 2019-20 version of Kelly who was a solid No. 4 starter. It’s not necessarily an exciting package, but Kelly has just a $4.25MM salary in 2021 and a $5.25MM option for 2022, so he’s a nice add for a pitching-hungry team with budgetary constraints.

26. Robbie Grossman, OF, Tigers: Grossman’s two-year, $10MM deal with Detroit this winter has already paid off in spades. His perennially high walk rate is at a career-best 15.9 percent, and he’s posted a .256/.382/.423 slash with five homers and a 7-for-8 showing in stolen base attempts. Grossman isn’t a great defender, but he’s playable in either corner and is a proven source of OBP whose power has ticked up in the past couple seasons. A contender with OBP struggles and/or outfield deficiencies could probably jump the market, since Grossman ought to be available well in advance of the July 30 deadline.

27. Freddy Galvis, SS, Orioles: Hitting for the most power of his career with his second-best walk rate and a strikeout rate a good bit south of league average, Galvis has exceeded expectations in Baltimore. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average feel he’s playing the worst defense of his career, but a contender might look to Galvis as more of a utility option to bounce between shortstop, third base and second base anyhow. His cheap $1.5MM salary isn’t going to stand in the way of anyone acquiring him. Galvis obviously won’t get a qualifying offer, and the Orioles aren’t going to contend this year, so the impending free agent seems all but guaranteed to be traded as long as he’s healthy.

28-29. Starling Marte & Corey Dickerson, OF, Marlins: The Marlins are hanging around in an unexpectedly mediocre NL East, but the salaries of both Marte and Dickerson, paired with some young outfield talent on the rise, could prompt the club to move either veteran. Dickerson, in particular, feels likely to be on the market given that the Fish have more depth at the outfield corners than in center. But Miami might not want to risk a qualifying offer for Marte, and the Marlins certainly don’t want to lose him for nothing when he reaches free agency at season’s end.

30. Kole Calhoun, OF, Diamondbacks: Calhoun is still on the shelf after undergoing hamstring surgery earlier this year, but he should be back a month or more before the deadline, giving him some time to prove his health to other teams. He was out to a nice start in ’21, hitting .292/.333/.479 in 51 plate appearances. Calhoun has an established track record as an above-average bat and quality defender in right field, though certainly a hamstring operation could impact both facets of his game. He’s earning $8MM this year, and his contract has a $9MM club option for the 2022 season. Given that option’s $2MM buyout, it’s effectively a net $7MM decision for the D-backs or an acquiring team.

31. Jacob Stallings, C, Pirates: Stallings isn’t as commonly cited as a trade candidate as some of his more well-known teammates, but he’ll be among the better catchers available on rebuilding clubs. He’s a roughly average bat wh0 gets there more through OBP than power, but a league-average bat at catcher is valuable when the average catcher is hitting .216/.298/.367 so far in 2021. Stallings is a .256/.331/.384 career hitter who’s out to a .240/.343/.421 start in 2021. He’s earning just $1.3MM in 2021, is controllable via arbitration through 2024, and is a premium defensive option. He’s also already 31 years old, so despite being controllable, the Pirates should have no problem moving him if a catcher-needy contender comes calling.

32. German Marquez, RHP, Rockies: While Gray and Story look like near-locks to be moved, Marquez is in a different situation. The 26-year-old is signed affordably through 2024, earning $7.5MM in 2021, $11MM in 2022 and $15MM in 2023 before the Rockies (or another club) can decide between a $16MM club option or a $2.5MM buyout. He was absolutely blown up by the Giants last month, serving up eight runs and getting knocked out in the first inning, but he’s been excellent outside that one fluke appearance. Marquez has a 4.47 ERA overall but a 3.28 mark if you’re willing to overlook that career-worst day. Marquez whiffs hitters at an average or better rate, typically has a better-than-average walk rate (albeit not so far in 2021) and induces grounders north of 50 percent. He’s posted a combined 4.18 ERA since 2018 while calling Coors Field home. Most clubs would view him as a mid-rotation starter with the upside for more, and his affordable contract adds to the value.

33. Spencer Turnbull, RHP, Tigers: Similar to Marquez, Turnbull is a controllable starter on a rebuilding team who doesn’t “have” to be moved this deadline. His recent no-hitter garnered him some national attention — deservedly so — but Turnbull has been a solid starter since the 2019 season. Over his past 245 1/3 innings, he has a 4.22 ERA and 3.68 FIP. He’s enjoying the best walk and ground-ball rates of his career so far and allowing less hard contact than he ever has. Turnbull won’t even be arbitration-eligible until this winter and is controlled through 2024, so the Tigers could certainly hold onto him. Then again, they got burned by doing just that with Boyd and Fulmer, so perhaps they’ll be more proactive this time around.

34-36. John Means (LHP), Anthony Santander (OF) & Trey Mancini (1B/OF), Orioles: Baltimore has some tougher decisions to face regarding the three players that figure to hold the most appeal to other teams. Means has been one of the game’s best pitchers in 2021 and is controlled through 2024, which indicates he could at least be part of the next competitive Orioles club. But he’s also already 28, and the Orioles know they won’t be competing just yet in 2022. Holding Means would be gambling that he’ll remain this effective into his age-30 and age-31 seasons — completely plausible but also inherently risky, as is the case with any pitcher. Mancini would be a natural trade candidate were he not the Orioles’ feel-good story of the season — the heart-and-soul of the clubhouse who triumphed over a frightening diagnosis of Stage 3 colon cancer. The optics of trading him wouldn’t be great, and the move would be felt immensely in the clubhouse. Santander drew plenty of offseason interest after a nice 2020 showing, and he’s another player who is controllable through 2024. He has power but clear OBP issues. Of the three, he’d probably be the easiest to part with should another club show interest.

37. Sonny Gray, RHP, Reds: I’m not convinced the Reds will be all-out sellers at this point — more on that below — but that was true in the offseason and they still at least listened to offers on Gray as they looked to cut payroll. Gray would require a pretty notable return given that he’s signed affordably through 2023 (the final year being a club option) and is once again delivering quality results. He’s missed some time but now has a 3.40 ERA with a well above-average strikeout rate and a slightly improved (but still below-average) walk rate. If it becomes clearer that the Reds will shop Gray and his contract, he’ll vault up this list in a hurry as one of the best arms who could conceivably be moved in July. That’s also true of the next entrant on the list.

38. Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds: Castellanos hit .305/.347/.611 in March and somehow got much better in May, hitting .409/.476/.667. At this point, the 29-year-old is hitting so well that it seems likely he’ll exercise the opt-out clause in his contract. If the Reds are out of the race, they’ll have to look at Castellanos as a rental they’ll likely lose. Considering the Reds’ efforts to shed payroll this winter, dropping the remainder of Castellanos’ $14MM salary while also adding some prospects in return might be a palatable gambit.

39. Danny Duffy, LHP, Royals: Kansas City’s recent tailspin has caused them to plummet in the AL Central standings. They’re in a tough spot with Duffy, as he’s a free agent at season’s end who was enjoying a dominant start to the season before hitting the injured list. Duffy is a homegrown product who’s already signed an extension once and has somewhat famously declared, “Bury me a Royal” in response to past trade rumors surrounding him. The Royals are trying to move toward a more competitive cycle and surely want him to be a part of that. Kansas City, perhaps more than any other club, is loyal to its core players and resistant toward trading veterans for prospects. At the same time, interest in Duffy will be strong if he’s healthy. They could conceivably trade him in July then try to re-sign him in November, but this sort of move isn’t really GM Dayton Moore’s style. Duffy will be in demand, but I could just as easily see the Royals signing him to an extension.

40. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Diamondbacks: It won’t be easy to unload Bumgarner’s contract after his poor showing in 2020, but he’s shown some signs of rebounding in a bizarre 2021 season. Bumgarner has been rocked for five or six earned runs in five of his 11 starts — his first three outings and his two most recent ones. The interim six starts? Bumgarner looked like the 2014 version of himself, hurling 34 innings of 1.32 ERA ball with a 39-to-6 K/BB ratio. His average fastball velocity is up three miles per hour after last year’s dip to 88.3 mph, which has to be encouraging for the D-backs and others. Still, Bumgarner is owed the balance of this year’s $19MM salary (about $12.5MM) plus salaries of $23MM, $23MM and $14MM from 2022-24. The D-backs would need to eat some cash or take back a contract to make things work, and the financial component of any such trade only further muddies the actual return in terms of young talent.

Others to Watch (* = Currently on injured list)

Angels: Jose Iglesias, Steve Cishek, Tony Watson, Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana*, Junior Guerra, Kurt Suzuki

Cubs: Zach Davies, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras

D-backs: Joakim Soria, Tyler Clippard*, Josh Reddick

Mariners: Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Flexen, Drew Steckenrider*, Keynan Middleton, Rafael Montero

Marlins: Adam Duvall, Anthony Bass

Nationals: Max Scherzer, Kyle Schwarber, Josh Harrison, Jon Lester, Starlin Castro

Orioles: Matt Harvey, Paul Fry, Maikel Franco, Pedro Severino, Shawn Armstrong, Tanner Scott

Pirates: Colin Moran*, Trevor Cahill*, Mitch Keller, Chris Stratton, Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault*

Rangers: Joely Rodriguez, Mike Foltynewicz, Brock Holt, Charlie Culberson, Khris Davis

Reds: Luis Castillo, Tyler Naquin

Rockies: Daniel Bard, Jhoulys Chacin, Mychal Givens

Royals: Jorge Soler, Brad Keller, Greg Holland, Carlos Santana, Mike Minor, Jarrod Dyson, Ervin Santana

Tigers: Wilson Ramos, JaCoby Jones, Niko Goodrum, Jose Cisnero, Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario

Twins: Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ, Alex Colome, Hansel Robles, Matt Shoemaker, Taylor Rogers

General Notes

–As the deadline looms closer, the viability of sell-offs from disappointing, expected contenders improves. It’s tempting to jam the list full of Twins after two disastrous months, but it’s hard to see them selling controllable players when most of their core is intact into 2022 (and well beyond, in many cases). It’s similarly hard to see them climbing back into the race, but still I wouldn’t expect much beyond the impending free agents, and perhaps an increasingly expensive reliever like Taylor Rogers.

–The same holds true for the Nationals. While there was plenty of speculation on Max Scherzer earlier this month, it’s not clear he’ll be made available. Teams would certainly be interested in a pitcher of his caliber if the Nationals were to sell. But the Nats, of all teams, are familiar with how a team’s record through Memorial Day isn’t reflective of where they’ll be at season’s end. The Nats are a woeful seven games under .500, but they’re still only six games out of first in a surprisingly feeble NL East. Washington generally hasn’t been keen on aggressively shopping their core players in recent years, so it’s not a given they’d look to move Scherzer if they remain on the periphery of contention.

–There’s been plenty of speculation on the Cubs, particularly surrounding Kris Bryant, but at eight games over .500, they’re unlikely to trade any of their core players even on the brink of free agency. A prolonged losing streak would likely bring up rumors surrounding all of the above-mentioned veterans, with Bryant the likeliest to change hands based both on his massive start to the season and his monster rebound effort at the plate.

–Few picked the Royals to contend in 2021, but that was their aim, and general manager Dayton Moore has made clear that he wants to shift his focus to winning in the here and now. They didn’t sign Carlos Santana and Mike Minor to multi-year deals simply to flip them. Either veteran could draw interest — Santana, in particular, has raked — but the Royals likely view their window to contend as just starting to open. Prospects like Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, Kris Bubic and the ballyhooed Bobby Witt Jr. could all be on the big league roster in early 2022. It’s hard to see them trading many pieces, and even Duffy was a borderline inclusion on this list. It wouldn’t at all be a surprise were Moore to come out and flatly say he won’t trade the left-hander.

–The Reds are closer to the cellar than first place in the NL Central as of this writing. The club walked a fine line this past winter, dumping salary without really adding any win-now pieces in hopes that a strong offense and a quality core of bats would help them contend in 2021. That hasn’t been the case just yet, due in part to the struggles of Luis Castillo. The Reds never said it, but it’s hard to imagine owner Bob Castellini didn’t push the front office to shed payroll based on their offseason. If they’re a ways back this summer, any of their veterans on notable salaries could surface as legitimate trade candidates.

This is the final update to our annual ranking of top trade candidates in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. You can check out the original list (and review the methodology) here and find the second list here. Essentially, we’re ordering players based upon our assessment of both their trade value and likelihood of being dealt.

It’s subjective; it’s debatable; and that’s what makes it fun. Without further ado:

1. Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets (LR: 3): There’s a report saying the Mets might try to extend him, but … when are those talks going to take place? Wheeler bounced back from an injury scare with a sturdy outing in which he had all his velocity. He’s a potential impact rental piece. It’s time to move him.

2-4. Nicholas Castellanos (Tigers), Corey Dickerson (Pirates) & Yasiel Puig (Reds), OF (LR: 6, 20, NR): The corner outfield market has crystallized quite a bit in recent weeks. Each of these players is earning a fairly steep salary but has also been quite productive of late. If you need to add some thump to your outfield mix, these are your top rental options.

5-7. Noah Syndergaard (Mets), Mike Minor (Rangers) & Robbie Ray (Diamondbacks), SP (LR: 30, 31, 32): These are the likeliest remaining non-rental starters to be moved this summer. Reports have wavered on all three in the run-up to to the deadline; perhaps their teams have as well. These are talented and productive starters with appealing contract situations, playing for teams that can still entertain hopes of 2020 contention. Better bring a good offer.

8-10. Shane Greene (Tigers), Edwin Diaz (Mets) & Felipe Vazquez (Pirates), RP (LR: 8, NR, NR): Greene isn’t in the same tier from a talent standpoint, but he’s also quite a bit more likely than the other two hurlers to be dealt. It makes sense for the Detroit organization to cash him in at a high point, especially since his arb salary will go through the roof next year. Diaz and Vazquez possess the type of talent that moves the needle even for contending teams that seemingly have everything on their rosters. Given their contract situations, they won’t be moved lightly, but it’s possible to imagine blockbusters in both cases.

11. Tanner Roark, SP, Reds (LR: NR): He’s not an exciting pitcher, but he’s as good or better than other sturdy, inning-filling types that have been moved in recent weeks. High odds of a deal unless the Reds shrug and decide to let it ride.

12-13. Matthew Boyd (Tigers) & Caleb Smith (Marlins), SP (LR: 9, 59): These hurlers come with more and cheaper control than the group listed above. They’ve both shown eye-opening improvements this year, but don’t have lengthy track records of MLB success.

14-15. Mychal Givens (Orioles), Raisel Iglesias (Reds), RP (LR: 17, NR): Gone are the days when big save tallies and/or low ERAs drive the deadline. Both of these pitchers have obvious talent and have shown it for lengthy stretches. Contenders have no doubt taken a close look in a bid to understand just why it is the results haven’t been there in 2019. The O’s have every reason to jump on a deal if they can get some appealing young talent. The Reds are reportedly willing to listen on Iglesias, which hasn’t always really been the case.

16-18. Todd Frazier, 3B, Mets; Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants; Justin Smoak, 1B/DH, Blue Jays (LR: 13, 14, 15): Welcome to the 2019 corner infield rental market.

19-25. Craig Stammen (Padres), Daniel Hudson (Blue Jays), Greg Holland (Diamondbacks), Francisco Liriano (Pirates), Chris Martin (Rangers), David Hernandez & Jared Hughes (Reds), RP (LR: 41, 44, 42, NR, NR, NR, NR): And here we have the slate of pure rental relief arms. Hernandez is perhaps the most fascinating of the bunch, with excellent K/BB numbers but a brutal 6.92 ERA and recent IL stint.

26. Alex Colome, RP, White Sox (LR: 45): We just aren’t very high on Colome as a trade chip. The late-inning experience is great, as is the 2.27 ERA over 39 2/3 innings. But Colome’s ho-hum peripherals are cause for quite a lot of skepticism and Statcast batted-ball measurements paint him as a massive regression candidate (.223 wOBA vs. .324 xwOBA). With a hefty salary — $7.325MM this year and a save-induced arb raise next year — it just doesn’t seem that Colome is going to command significant offers.

27. Ken Giles (RP), Blue Jays (LR: 4): This is a disappointing situation for the Jays, who were all lined up to cash in on Giles after his exceptional showing throughout the first half of the season. Unfortunately, he’s now dealing with worrying elbow inflammation. Even if he ultimately comes through just fine, there’s sufficient uncertainty to make a deal much less likely than it had seemed. If they can’t secure a big return, the Jays will probably hold onto Giles in hopes that he’ll bounce back in the second half and turn into a winter trade piece (or remain the team’s closer for 2020).

28. Clint Frazier, OF, Yankees (LR: 12): There’s still no path to the Bronx, so it’s likely Frazier ends up on the move. Odds are he’ll go in a deal that brings back a pitcher, but beyond that it’s anyone’s guess on a landing spot.

29. Mike Leake, SP, Mariners (LR: 16): The veteran hurler is sporting a fine 2.59 ERA through 24 1/3 innings this month, making him a nice back-of-the-rotation target. We know the M’s are willing to deal and hold onto salary as necessary to facilitate a move. Leake would rank higher but for the fact that his no-trade rights (along with indications he won’t hesitate to use them) create a complication.

30. Roenis Elias, RP, Mariners (LR: 18): Despite a few stumbles, Elias has mostly delivered solid work in a surprising turn as the Seattle closer.

31. Jarrod Dyson, OF, Diamondbacks (LR: 37): The speedy lefty is a classic deadline rental piece. He’d make sense as a bench outfielder for a number of contenders.

32-33. Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks) & Trevor Bauer (Indians), SP (LR: 32, 34): There are still scenarios where these two excellent hurlers could be moved, but we haven’t heard a significant volume of rumors indicating there’s a major run-up to a deal. Greinke’s limited no-trade rights are a significant factor, while the contending Cleveland organization obviously has ample cause to keep Bauer unless very particular goals are met in a trade.

34-37. Joe Jimenez (Tigers), Joe Biagini (Blue Jays), Jose Leclerc (Rangers) & Amir Garrett (Reds), RP (LR: 58, NR, NR, NR): This is a grouping of controllable relievers with interesting arms, even if the results haven’t always been there. All have been mentioned at some point in the rumor mill, but it’ll take a compelling offer to force their respective teams’ hands.

38. Hunter Pence, OF, Rangers (LR: NR): The surprise All-Star would fill a niche as a right-handed bat and major clubhouse presence for a contender.

39-40. Hunter Renfroe & Franmil Reyes, OF, Padres (LR: 21, 22): It remains difficult to ascertain the intentions of the San Diego organization, but it seems they’re continuing to explore deals involving these controllable corner outfielders. Both have displayed huge power and middling on-base numbers this year.

41-42. Kole Calhoun (Angels) & David Peralta (Diamondbacks), OF (LR: 28, 29): As was the case when we last checked in, these two players remain plausible but hardly certain trade candidates. Teams looking for quality corner outfield bats may be willing to take on the salary and give up some prospect value if they see one of these veteran left-handed-hitters as the best roster fit.

43. Kirby Yates, RP, Padres (LR: 19): Perhaps we’re discounting the possibility of a trade too much here, but there just hasn’t been any particularly compelling chatter about the outstanding San Diego closer. As just suggested above, there are still quite a few fascinating possibilities for the Friars. Anything involving Yates would make for banner news on a thus-far-moribund trade market.

44. Andrew Chafin, RP, Diamondbacks (LR: NR): While he’s carrying a 4.21 ERA in 36 1/3 innings, that’s not of much concern. More importantly, Chafin is sitting at 11.1 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 on the year and has been tough on lefty hitters (.231/.294/.333). With one more season of control remaining, the Snakes have some value here.

45. Daniel Murphy, 1B, Rockies (LR: NR): Murphy is heating up at the plate at the right time if the Colorado club wishes to clear some salary. The Rox have underperformed expectations and seem in position to sell. Trouble is, the organization has little in the way of obvious trade chips unless it puts core pieces up for sale or eats a ton of money on bad contracts.

46. Domingo Santana, OF, Mariners (LR: NR): It seemed that some momentum was building towards a deal, but an elbow injury has reduced the likelihood.

47. Alex Wood, SP, Reds (LR: NR): While he’s only one start into his tenure in Cincinnati, that lone showing may have been enough to facilitate a trade. The Reds could hold on and hope for the best, with Wood perhaps even representing a qualifying offer candidate, but they’d have to strongly consider a trade if they can secure decent terms.

48-50. Whit Merrifield, INF/OF, Royals; Starling Marte, OF, Pirates; Trey Mancini, OF, Orioles (LR: 23, NR, 35): We haven’t seen anything close to dedicated trade chatter involving these high-quality players who possess appealing contract situations. But if a surprise position-player blockbuster goes down, these seem the likeliest candidates.

51-52. Jake McGee & Scott Oberg, RP, Rockies (LR: NR): Both of these relievers would have appeal to contenders, but can the Rox afford to part with their best-performing bullpen pieces if they hope to contend next year?

53-55. Freddy Galvis (Blue Jays), Asdrubal Cabrera & Logan Forsythe (Rangers), INF (LR: 26, NR, NR): A recent lower back injury could cause trade talks to hit the skids, but it’s still possible a team will decide that Galvis is the right piece to add. Meanwhile, the Rangers rental veterans are rather obvious bench piece candidates.

56-59. Danny Santana (Rangers), Tim Beckham (Mariners), Jonathan Villar & Hanser Alberto (Orioles), INF (LR: NR, 55, 56): If you’d rather chase a bit of upside and gain control with your reserve infield addition, these players are worth considering.

60. Adam Jones, OF, Diamondbacks (LR: NR): The eminent veteran hasn’t been at his best, but still seems like a nice bench piece for the right team.

61-63. Martin Maldonado (Cubs), Alex Avila (Diamondbacks) & Chris Iannetta (Rockies), C (LR: 38, 40, NR): Maldonado was dealt since our last ranking, but rumor is he could be moved again.

64. Ian Kennedy, RP, Royals (LR: 49): There hasn’t been much chatter on the veteran, but he remains a candidate to step into a contending bullpen if the Royals are willing to hang onto a big chunk of the remaining salary. There’s some indication they’d rather not.

65-66. Wilson Ramos, C & Justin Wilson, RP, Mets (LR: 53-54): We haven’t seen much indication that either of these veterans will be moved, but both are plausible chips if the Mets decide to try to shave some 2020 payroll obligations.

67. Lance Lynn, SP, Rangers (LR: NR): There’s no indication that Lynn is a major target, but … why not? True, he’s controllable for two more seasons, while Minor only has one remaining. But some contenders may well see Lynn as the better pitcher and be willing to offer more to get him. The Rangers can’t rule anything out.

68-71. Madison Bumgarner (SP) & Will Smith, Sam Dyson & Tony Watson (RP), Giants (LR: 1, 2, 7, 10): We’re generally presuming that the Giants won’t bow out of a Wild Card race that they have now joined. Still, they’ll need to explore the possibilities regarding these short-term assets.

72. Drew Pomeranz, SP/RP, Giants (LR: NR): This is a more likely Giants’ trade piece, if only because the team could decide to clear a roster spot. Pomeranz would make sense for a club that can imagine him functioning in a LOOGY role while also providing some long-man/rotation depth. 

73. Melky Cabrera, OF/DH, Pirates (LR: NR): The veteran switch-hitter has cooled off but remains a bench-bat candidate.

74. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies (LR: NR): A somewhat surprising name to the market, Blackmon seems an unlikely trade chip. He’s still a very good hitter, but is lagging in other areas. The contract isn’t terrible but doesn’t seem like much of an asset given his age. It’s just difficult to see something coming together, but the potential remains.

75. Jacob deGrom (LR: 60): We can’t quite quit the idea that deGrom could be moved if an exceptional opportunity comes up. It’s highly unlikely, but you can’t completely rule out a blockbuster until the bell has rung and the deadline has passed.

Other Trade Candidates

Angels: Brian Goodwin, Trevor Cahill, Hansel Robles, Ty Buttrey, Noe Ramirez, Justin Anderson

Astros: Tony Kemp (DFA limbo)

Blue Jays: Aaron Sanchez, David Phelps, Tim Mayza

Brewers: Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas

Cardinals: Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Kolten Wong, Carlos Martinez

Cubs: Ian Happ, Carl Edwards Jr.

Diamondbacks: Wilmer Flores, Zack Godley, Archie Bradley, Yoshihisa Hirano, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Escobar

Giants: Kevin Pillar, Stephen Vogt, Jeff Samardzija, Mark Melancon, Joe Panik, Trevor Gott

Indians: Brad Hand

Mariners: Dee Gordon, Hunter Strickland, Cory Gearrin, Anthony Bass, Tommy Milone, Wade LeBlanc

Marlins: Trevor Richards, Neil Walker, Starlin Castro, Curtis Granderson, Martin Prado, Adam Conley, Wei-Yin Chen

Mets: Dominic Smith, Adeiny Hechavarria, Seth Lugo, Michael Conforto

Nationals: Michael A. Taylor

Orioles: Asher Wojciechowski, Dylan Bundy

Padres: Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Robbie Erlin

Phillies: Maikel Franco, Nick Williams

Pirates: Chris Archer, Keone Kela

Rangers: Elvis Andrus, Delino DeShields, Shin-Soo Choo, Jesse Chavez

Rays: Joey Wendle, Mike Brosseau, Ji-Man Choi

Reds: Scooter Gennett, Derek Dietrich, Jose Iglesias, Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen

Rockies: Yonder Alonso, Drew Butera, Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw

Royals: Billy Hamilton, Danny Duffy, Lucas Duda (DFA limbo), Jorge Soler, Brad Keller, Scott Barlow, Jakob Junis, Alex Gordon

Tigers: Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Niko Goodrum, JaCoby Jones, Gordon Beckham, Jordan Zimmermann, Blaine Hardy, Bobby Wilson (DFA limbo), Buck Farmer

White Sox: Kelvin Herrera, Yolmer Sanchez, Welington Castillo, Ivan Nova, Evan Marshall, James McCann, Aaron Bummer, Jose Abreu