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Archives for July 2019

Mets Likely Won’t Trade Syndergaard, Matz Unless “Overwhelmed” By Offer

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While it is becoming increasingly likely that the Mets will be sellers at the deadline, the team won’t be going into a full fire sale.  Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are two of the names that aren’t likely to be going anywhere before the July 31st deadline, as Mike Puma of the New York Post hears from an industry source that the Mets “would likely have to be overwhelmed by a trade proposal” to deal Syndergaard or Matz.

The Mets’ reluctance to move Syndergaard is well-known, despite the fact that at least three teams (the Brewers, Astros and Padres) have shown interest already, and several more would surely join the bidding if the man they call Thor was actually shopped.  We haven’t heard much about Matz as a trade candidate this summer, and it’s interesting that he is seemingly in the same boat as the more heralded Syndergaard, though New York would have largely the same reasons to want to keep either pitcher.

Matz has a 4.89 ERA, 2.69 K/BB rate, 46.9% grounder rate, and 8.7 K/9 over 81 innings this season.  Despite some pretty decent overall advanced metrics, Matz has been once again undone by problems with the home run ball.  After posting a 1.5 HR/9 in 2017-18, that number jumped even higher to a full 2.0 HR/9 in 2019, as 20.9% of all fly balls allowed by Matz have left the yard.  Matz’s struggles peaked in June, as a string of poor outings led the Mets to remove him from the rotation, though he is slated to start on July 17 against the Twins.

Now in his fourth season as a regular, Matz has shown some flashes of brilliance for the Mets but injuries and his propensity for the home run ball have limited his value.  After generating 2.4 fWAR in his 2016 rookie season, he has been little more than a replacement-level pitcher since, with 1.3 total fWAR over his next 301 2/3 innings.  Matz hasn’t approached the type of ace-level ability Syndergaard has shown at his peak, though like Syndergaard, the Mets would arguably be selling low on Matz if they dealt him now.

Matz is in his first year of arbitration eligibility, earning $2.625MM for the season and thus in line for cost-effective salaries in both 2020 and 2021 even if Matz has a breakout next year.  Syndergaard also has two-plus years of team control remaining, though at a higher price (he is earning $6MM in 2019).  Between the control and the lack of payroll strain caused by either hurler, the Mets don’t have any particular reason to make a trade, especially since neither is pitching particularly well.

Brewers Sign Shelby Miller To Minors Deal

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The Brewers have signed right-hander Shelby Miller to a minor league contract, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).

After being released by the Rangers last week, Miller will now return to the National League as he tries to once again revive his career.  Miller posted an 8.59 ERA over 44 innings for Texas, recording almost as many walks (29) as strikeouts (30), and eventually losing his rotation job due to his inability to his ongoing struggles.

The 44 innings represents the most Miller has pitched in the last two seasons, as Tommy John surgery and a separate set of elbow problems limited the right-hander to just 38 innings total in 2017-18.  Before those two injury-ravaged seasons and his poor 2016 debut year with the Diamondbacks, Miller was considered one of the more promising young arms in baseball, coming off three impressive years with the Braves and Cardinals from 2013-15.

Miller is still just 28 years old and still averages close to 95mph on his fastball, making him a risk worth taking for the Brewers on a flier of a minor league deal.  Milwaukee will owe Miller only the prorated minimum salary if he reaches the club’s MLB roster, as the Rangers are on the hook for the remainder of the one-year contract he signed last winter ($2MM in guaranteed salary, and $400K in achieved incentives).

The Anti-Gerrit Cole

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Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole is currently on pace to join the prestigious 300-strikeout club, a group with no shortage of Hall of Fame-level talent. Cole leads the majors with a dazzling 13.11 strikeouts per nine innings, whereas Athletics left-hander Brett Anderson resides on the opposite end of the spectrum. Anderson places dead last among qualified starters in K/9 at 4.56. His K/BB ratio (1.58) ranks a similarly unappealing fourth worst in the game. Nevertheless, in a season filled with setbacks for the A’s rotation, Anderson has been one of the unit’s few stabilizing forces.

The 31-year-old Anderson’s 2019 success has come at a nominal fee. After Anderson inked a minor league deal entering 2018 and helped pitch the Athletics to the playoffs, he re-signed on an MLB pact worth $1.5MM during the offseason. Now, for the second year in a row, Anderson may aid in a postseason berth for Oakland.

Injuries have been an all-too-common occurrence for Anderson, who began his career with the Athletics in 2009 and later spent time with the Rockies, Dodgers, Cubs and Blue Jays before circling back to the A’s a year ago. This season, though, Anderson has stayed healthy in a season chock-full of poor fortune for Oakland’s pitching staff. Not only haven’t the A’s gotten a single inning from the injured quartet of Sean Manaea, Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk, Jharel Cotton, but they lost their ace, Frankie Montas, to an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension June 21.

Anderson’s first start after Montas’ ban – a three-inning, seven-run performance in a June 23 loss to the Rays – was a nightmare. However, since then, Anderson has yielded a meager two earned runs on seven hits over 14 innings in a pair of starts – both wins for a playoff-contending A’s team that needs every victory it can get. Anderson now owns an above-average 3.86 ERA through 102 2/3 frames on the season. Known throughout his majors tenure for inducing ground balls, Anderson has done so at a 53.1 percent clip this year. As always, Anderson’s worm-burning tendencies have enabled him to limit home runs to a respectable extent. The average starter has surrendered HRs on 15.2 percent of fly balls in 2019, but Anderson’s at just 11.1.

Despite the laundry list of injuries Anderson has contended with throughout his time in the majors, his velocity remains in line with career figures. He’s averaging approximately 90 mph on his four-seam fastball and sinker, and has thrown the latter pitch 10 percent more than he did last season, according to Statcast. The results haven’t been great, though, as hitters have posted a .353 weighted on-base average/.382 expected wOBA against it. Anderson has stifled hitters with his slider, on the other hand, though his usage of it has decreased by 6 percent since 2018. In the 19.8 percent of the time Anderson has leaned on the pitch this year, batters have logged a non-threatening .286 wOBA/.298 xwOBA against it.

Perhaps Anderson would be well-served to turn to his slider more often, especially considering he has benefited from quite a bit of luck with his overall arsenal thus far. Anderson’s expected wOBA (.350) portends trouble compared to his real wOBA (.302). The same applies to Anderson’s 4.54 FIP – which ranks 21st from the bottom among qualified starters. Likewise, Anderson’s .268 batting average on balls in play against may be tough to maintain for someone who has surrendered a .309 BABIP during his major league career.

For now, the A’s are enjoying the inexpensive ride with Anderson, who might be on his way to another major league contract in the offseason. But while the strikeout-happy Cole could score $200MM-plus in free agency over the winter, the contact-heavy Anderson may be fortunate to net much more than the sub-$2MM guarantee he secured coming into the season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Interested In Matt Boyd

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You can add Matt Boyd to the long list of starting pitchers on the Padres’ radar, as MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports that San Diego is “evaluating” the southpaw as a potential trade acquisition.  Things still seem to be in the exploratory phase, however, as Morosi says no “serious talks” have taken place between the Padres and Tigers.

San Diego has been looking for a controllable front-of-the-rotation arm for months, dating back to offseason reports that linked them to such names as Marcus Stroman, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Noah Syndergaard in trade rumors.  Syndergaard is reportedly still a player of interest for the Padres, and it’s probably safe to assume that the Friars have at least checked in on virtually any top pitcher who might be on the market.

This search now includes Boyd, who has become one of the most intriguing names of this pre-trade deadline period thanks to a 3.87 ERA, 11.9 K/9, and league-best 7.1 K/BB rate over 107 innings for Detroit.  The Astros, Cubs, and Red Sox are some of the teams known to have had some level of interest in the 28-year-old left-hander, who is controlled through the 2022 season.

Understandably, the Tigers want a big haul of young talent back in any Boyd trade, though San Diego’s deep farm system certainly has the quality to meet Detroit’s demands.  Morosi also suggests that the Padres could offer Franmil Reyes or Hunter Renfroe off the Major League roster to address the Tigers’ lack of young outfield depth, perhaps even with Nick Castellanos going to San Diego as part of a larger multi-player deal if the Padres don’t want their current lineup to suffer an offensive hit.

Cardinals Place Yadier Molina On 10-Day IL; Activate Matt Carpenter

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5:22pm: Molina will likely miss around three weeks and surgery won’t be required, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other media.

4:14pm: The Cardinals have announced (Twitter links) a series of roster moves in advance of their second-half opener on Friday.  Catcher Yadier Molina is heading to the 10-day injured list due to a right thumb tendon strain, with an IL placement retroactive to July 8.  Coming back from the IL is infielder Matt Carpenter, who has been out of action since June 29 with a lower back sprain.  The Cards also sent Rangel Ravelo and southpaw Tyler Webb to Triple-A and moved Jordan Hicks to the 60-day IL, while calling up catcher Andrew Knizner and selecting the contract of left-hander Chasen Shreve from Triple-A.

This is the second time this season that Molina has missed time due to his troublesome right thumb, as the same injury also put the longtime St. Louis backstop on the IL from May 31 to June 11.  It’s fair to assume that the nagging nature of Molina’s thumb problem is at least partially responsible for his lack of production this season, though Molina was also struggling prior to May 31.  Overall, Molina has only a .261/.286/.368 slash line and four homers over 276 plate appearances, making him one of several veteran Cardinals who are seemingly all having down years at the same time.

This list includes Carpenter, who has a career-worst .216/.325/.381 with 10 home runs over 326 PA.  While his IL stint was minimal, he and the Cards are surely hoping that this brief time off combined with the All-Star break is enough to finally get his bat moving close to the MVP-level production that Carpenter provided over the last three-plus months of the 2018 season.  Carpenter only had a .739 OPS over his first 234 PA last season before exploding for a .983 OPS over his final 443 PA.

Last season’s results notwithstanding, Carpenter’s cold streak this season has lasted longer and reached deeper depths than his slow start to 2018.  His power and hard-hit ball rates have both fallen significantly, while the quality of his contact has also dropped off (.324 xwOBA in 2019, as opposed to a .392 xwOBA in 2018).

Carpenter will resume his usual duties at third base, though the hot-hitting Tommy Edman retained his spot on the MLB roster after his strong performance as Carpenter’s fill-in.  Knizner and Matt Wieters will handle the catching duties while Molina is out.

Marlins Have Received Interest In Starlin Castro

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The Marlins are firmly in seller mode as the deadline approaches, and one of the veterans who has received some interest from rival teams is Starlin Castro, as the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson reports that the Fish have received some calls about the second baseman.

Castro has been a trade candidate since the moment he first came to Miami, dealt in December 2017 (mostly as salary offset) as part of the blockbuster deal that sent Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees.  The rebuilding Marlins didn’t have much use for a veteran with a pricey contract, though their efforts to deal Castro over the last year and a half haven’t been successful.  If nothing else, that time diminished the money attached to Castro’s services — he is still owed roughly $4.7MM of his $11MM salary for the 2019 season, and his $16MM club option for 2020 can be bought out for $1MM.

It’s easy to imagine Miami eating virtually all of that remaining salary just for the sake of accommodating a move, since Castro’s trade value is minimal.  As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently outlined, Castro is suffering through the worst season of his ten-year career, hitting only .245/.272/.336 through 371 plate appearances and some of the least-impressive advanced metrics (via Statcast) of any player in baseball.

It’s probably safe to assume that interested teams are looking at Castro just as infield depth for the stretch run, and perhaps hoping that getting away from the last-place Marlins and into a pennant race would help jolt Castro back into something resembling his old self.  Conversely, a team keen on adding Castro may not feel the need to give up even a minor prospect to acquire his services when it’s quite possible the Marlins could just release him after July 31 anyway.  Marlins prospect Isan Diaz is tearing up Triple-A pitching and pushing hard for MLB playing time at second base, so if a trade partner for Castro can’t be found, the Marlins could release Castro and end up eating his salary anyway (with a new team then responsible for a prorated league minimum salary if they were to sign Castro).

NL East Notes: Stroman, Braves, Phillies, Doolittle

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The Braves and Blue Jays haven’t had any discussions about Marcus Stroman, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  While Stroman would be a fit on at least half the teams in the league, Atlanta stands out as a natural landing spot due to both the Braves’ talented but generally inexperienced rotation, and the connection between Stroman and Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos (who had the same job in Toronto from 2009-15).  While a lack of talks to this point doesn’t mean that Stroman couldn’t eventually become a Braves target, Atlanta has been linked to other pitchers such as Madison Bumgarner or Zack Wheeler, and could simply prefer one of those players (or another arm altogether) to Stroman.

More from the NL East…

  • The Phillies focused heavily on position-player additions during their splashy offseason, but a lack of focus on the rotation looks to now be a mistake, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber writes.  The team’s starters have delivered middling-to-mediocre results all season, and depth has now become a particular issue given Jake Arrieta’s injury concerns.  While the Phils could still make a move to acquire a starting pitcher (or two) at the deadline, such a move will cost the club more prospects from a system that has already been thinned out by other trades.  As Lauber notes, the Phillies also haven’t done a great job of developing their own pitchers over the last four years, with Aaron Nola standing out as the last success story.
  • Trades and trade rumors come with the territory for any baseball player, particularly at this time of year.  This being said, there’s an obvious personal toll that comes with knowing one could soon to be moved to another team on another city, and it’s naturally hard to entirely block out all of the speculation.  “You see a couple things and that’s all it takes for your brain to run wild a little bit with some of that stuff,” Nationals closer Sean Doolittle told NBC Sports Washington’s Todd Dybas about some early-season rumors buzzing that the Nats could start trading Doolittle and other veterans if the team continued to struggle.  Doolittle is no stranger to midseason deals, of course, as it was almost exactly two years ago that he came to D.C. as part of a very notable five-player trade with the Athletics.  Needless to say, the Nats’ re-emergence back into the postseason race has ended talk of the club being deadline sellers, which is good news for Doolittle given how he and his wife quickly grew to love being part of the Nationals family.  “I will say it’s tough because you don’t have control over [a trade],” Doolittle said. “For some people, it might be easy to say, ’Hey, I’m not going to think about it because I can’t control it.’ At the same time, that’s why it’s a little disconcerting, is you don’t have control over it. After going through it once before, it’s not as scary as maybe it was. I don’t know. I really want to be here. I like it here.”

Reds Sign Nick Ciuffo To Minor League Deal

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TODAY: The Reds have officially announced the signing (via Twitter).  Ciuffo has been assigned to Double-A and placed on the seven-day injured list.

TUESDAY: The Reds are nearing a minor league agreement with recently released catcher Nick Ciuffo, per a report from Roster Roundup (Twitter link). Ciuffo, who is still recovering from early-June thumb surgery, was cut loose by Tampa Bay last week. Based on the initial 8-10 week timeline that accompanied his surgery, he should be healthy in late July to mid August.

In need of a 40-man roster spot late last month, the Rays opted to designate Ciuffo for assignment in order to open space. Because injured players can’t be passed through outright waivers, Tampa Bay was limited in its options and released Ciuffo. It’s most common in these situations for the player to simply re-sign with his original organization on a minor league deal, but it seems that Ciuffo found an opportunity more to his liking with the Cincinnati organization. If the deal is ultimately completed, the Reds will hope to find some success with a second castoff Rays catcher; Curt Casali has batted .265/.343/.412 in 316 plate appearances since the Reds acquired him from the Rays in exchange for cash last season.

Ciuffo was the No. 21 overall pick by the Rays back in 2013. The 24-year-old hasn’t found much success in either Triple-A or the big leagues, however. Ciuffo has a .228/.276/.350 batting line in Triple-A Durham this season and has mustered only a .529 OPS in a tiny sample of 50 big league plate appearances dating back to 2018. The South Carolina native carries a .250/.292/.369 hitter in 370 Triple-A plate appearances to go along with solid framing marks and a career 42 percent caught-stealing rate.

Jake Marisnick Receives Two-Game Suspension

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1:29pm: Marisnick is appealing the suspension, according to MLBPA communications director Chris Dahl (hat tip to Mark Berman of KRIV Fox 26).

12:28pm: Astros outfielder Jake Marisnick has been suspended for two games and fined an undisclosed amount as a result of the home-plate collision that fractured Jonathan Lucroy’s nose and concussed the Halos’ catcher, the league announced Thursday. If Marisnick does not appeal the punishment, he’ll begin serving it tonight.

“After thoroughly reviewing the play from all angles, I have concluded that Jake’s actions warrant discipline,” MLB chief baseball officer Joe Torre said in a statement accompanying the announcement. “While I do not believe that Jake intended to injure Jonathan, the contact he initiated in his attempt to score violated Official Baseball Rule 6.01(i), which is designed to protect catchers from precisely this type of collision.”

The play in question (video link) saw Marisnick attempt to score on a flyout to Kole Calhoun. While the impact of the collision led Lucroy to drop the throw from right field, Marisnick was still ruled out due the collision. Lucroy appeared to have left a lane open, though Marisnick explained on Twitter after the incident that he misjudged the situation in making a split-second decision:

“Through my eyes I thought the play was going to end up on the outside of the plate,” Marisnick tweeted. “I made a split second decision at full speed to slide head first on the inside part of the plate. That decision got another player hurt and I feel awful. I hope nothing but the best for [Jonathan Lucroy].”

The suspension would cost Marisnick roughly $24K of this season’s $2.212MM salary (in addition to the fine). Through 72 games and 194 plate appearances this season, Marisnick is hitting .250/.309/.466 with eight home runs, 12 doubles, a triple and six steals.

Rockies Expected To Recall Kyle Freeland This Weekend

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The Rockies are “expected” to call left-hander Kyle Freeland back up to the Majors to rejoin their rotation on Saturday, Kyle Newman of the Denver Post reports. Colorado optioned the southpaw to Triple-A last month after a prolonged cold spell.

That Freeland’s difficulties reached the point where an optional assignment was deemed necessary was a fairly stunning development. The 26-year-old finished seventh in the National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2017 and placed fourth in last season’s NL Cy Young race in what looked to be a breakout campaign. And while some might’ve anticipated a bit off regression, given Freeland’s average strikeout rate and good fortune on home runs clearing the fence, a downturn to the extent of this year’s 7.13 ERA and 2.43 HR/9 was utterly unforeseeable.

Freeland, though, is hardly the only Rockies starter who has taken a step back in 2019. Jon Gray and German Marquez have been solid, although even Marquez’s results pale in comparison to his 2018 output. Meanwhile each Antonio Senzatela, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Anderson, Chad Bettis and Peter Lambert have all turned in ERAs of 5.32 or worse in their starts this season. Those catastrophic results make the Rockies a logical candidate to pursue rotation help on the trade market over the course of the next three weeks — if they do indeed decide to buy in a push to land an NL Wild Card spot. Colorado is 14.5 games out of the division lead but a much more manageable two and a half games back in the Wild Card race.

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