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Archives for September 2019

NL West Notes: Padres, Ahmed, Friedman, Tapia, Wallach

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The Padres are expected have a busy offseason as the team tries to figure out the proper mixture for a contender.  Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune breaks down the Padres position-by-position as they look ahead to 2020, and the common refrain from many inside the organization is that perhaps only seven players (Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Chris Paddack, Eric Hosmer, Garrett Richards, Andres Munoz, and Kirby Yates) look like sure bets to be with the organization next season.  Everyone else, even from seeming building blocks like Dinelson Lamet or Hunter Renfroe, could potentially be traded for more proven talents.

“They have roster problems. They have to move people,” one rival executive tells Acee, which gets to the heart of the challenge facing the Padres.  The team still doesn’t totally know what they have in some players who have been inconsistent at the Major League level, yet a wave of prospects coming up and the organization increasingly impatient for a winning season, some tough choices may have to be made about who stays and who becomes a trade chip.

Some items from around the NL West…

  • Nick Ahmed enjoys playing for the Diamondbacks, but when it comes to the possibility of a contract extension, the shortstop tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that “I want to sign a fair deal. I’ve played long enough to realize that. I want to be able to take advantage of what I’ve got to this point in my career.”  A September slump has dropped Ahmed’s slash line to .255/.318/.442 over 621 PA this season, though his 93 wRC+ still represents the best offensive production of his six-year career, and his glovework has continued to be excellent.  Ahmed has one year of arbitration remaining before he hits free agency in the 2020-21 offseason, and he’ll be 31 on Opening Day 2021.  It makes for something of a tricky extension case, as Piecoro notes, since there aren’t many shortstop comps that would serve as a model for a potential multi-year contract.  There also hasn’t been any word from the D’Backs if they’d be interested in extending Ahmed, though Piecoro observes that GM Mike Hazen “does not speculate on such topics.”
  • There hasn’t yet been word about Andrew Friedman’s status with the Dodgers, as the president of baseball operations will reach the end of his contract when the Dodgers’ season ends.  The involved parties didn’t provide any details about negotiations, though there seems to be general optimism that a deal will be reached, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times writes.  Friedman said he wants to return, while team president Stan Kasten said he is “pretty confident” Friedman will be back, and “expect him to be here for a long time.”  Manager Dave Roberts also feels Friedman will remain in L.A., saying “everything I hear is [a new contract] is imminent, that it will get done.”
  • Raimel Tapia projects as an everyday left fielder for the Rockies in 2020, Nick Groke of the Athletic (subscription required) writes, which should help a player who seemed to get better with more regular playing time this season.  As a highly-regarded prospect coming out of Colorado’s farm system, Tapia received only 239 MLB plate appearances from 2016-18 before getting more of an extended look this season.  While Tapia has only a .276/.310/.418 slash line (74 wRC+) over 442 PA, he has also battled injuries and didn’t get many consistent starts until late July, Groke noted.  Sticking with Tapia as the mostly everyday left fielder would reduce Ian Desmond to a backup role, though the highly-paid veteran hasn’t done enough to merit more at-bats over three disappointing years in Colorado.  There’s also the possibility, however, that the Rockies could trade Tapia in the offseason to address other roster needs.
  • Tim Wallach is leaving his job as the Marlins’ bench coach to be closer to his family in California, though one rival executive tells Ken Rosenthal (in his latest FOX Sports video) that Wallach could be a possible candidate for the Padres’ managerial opening.  It wouldn’t be the first time that Wallach has been linked to San Diego, as he interviewed for the last managerial vacancy before the club went with Andy Green.  Wallach has over 12 years of MLB coaching experience and has also managed at the Triple-A level in the Dodgers’ organization, though he hasn’t been a big league skipper.  In the wake of Green’s firing, Rosenthal wonders if the Padres could prefer someone with Major League managing experience rather hire than another first-timer.

Jerry Dipoto Discusses Mariners’ Offseason

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It was four years ago today that Jerry Dipoto has hired as the Mariners’ general manager, and Dipoto has since become known for his trade-heavy style in his attempts to first build, and (in the last year) rebuild Seattle’s roster.  If 2019 was marked by Dipoto’s desire to “re-imagine” his team, 2020 promises more stability, as Dipoto told MLB.com’s Greg Johns and other reporters that he expects a more “moderate” offseason in terms of trades and signings.

“This will be a little different offseason than you’ve seen from us, particularly last year’s,” Dipoto said.  “But even years prior, 2016-18, we were so much about making peripheral moves to augment what we thought was a contending core. This is a different scenario. We’re growing a young core and we have to give them an opportunity to play.”

To that end, Dipoto felt it would be “very unlikely” that the team acquires any significant veterans this winter, as the Mariners intend to give plenty of playing time to their younger talents.  J.P. Crawford, Shed Long, Kyle Lewis, and Dan Vogelbach are some of the new faces who began to emerge in 2019, and all project to be more or less everyday players next season.  While Dipoto did say the M’s were “likely not to be very engaged in the trade market in more than a peripheral way,” that was in regards to the addition of new players, and he didn’t address the possibility of further trades of veterans (i.e. Domingo Santana or Dee Gordon) to create even more roster room.

In terms of what veterans could be added, both the pitching rotation and bullpen could get some lower-level veteran depth.  More player additions in general could come via minor league signings and the Rule 5 Draft.

The Mariners’ roster already looks vastly different than it did just a year ago.  Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Jean Segura, James Paxton, Alex Colome, Mike Leake, and Juan Nicasio are just some of the bigger names who have departed the team in a variety of trades, resulting in a lot of additional minor league depth and a much lesser payroll (the M’s have just under $80MM on the books for 2020).  Dipoto has hinted at 2021 as a soft deadline for the Mariners to begin turning back towards contention, though much will hinge on how their younger players develop next season.

Latest On Carlos Correa

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TODAY: Correa told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that he “woke up today feeling really good….It gave me a lot of confidence moving forward.”  An official decision on his ALDS status won’t be known until he works out with the team next week, but “the way I woke up today, if the playoff started tomorrow, I’d probably be in the lineup,” Correa said.

YESTERDAY: The Astros shut down shortstop Carlos Correa for the rest of the regular season because of a back issue on Thursday. The hope then was that Correa would return for the start of the playoffs next week. That could still happen, but it doesn’t sound like a certainty at this point. Whether Correa will be ready for the American League Division Series will depend on how his back responds to workouts next week, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle writes.

“We’re going to have to see him do a lot of stuff between now and next Friday,” said general manager Jeff Luhnow, who noted it’s “hard to tell” if Correa’s back problems have worsened in the past week. Regardless, if the Astros aren’t confident in Correa’s health when the ALDS rolls around, they’ll “most likely” leave him off their roster, according to Luhnow.

The spot currently ticketed for Correa may end up going to rookie third baseman Abraham Toro, per Rome. And third baseman/AL MVP candidate Alex Bregman would perhaps handle shortstop, something he has had to do far more often than the Astros were hoping for this season. Correa’s regular season ended with just 75 games played on account of multiple injuries. The 25-year-old sat out from May 27 until July 26 with a fractured rib and then missed Aug. 20-Sept. 15 thanks to his back, which still won’t seem to heal.

The fact that the Astros will ultimately go without Correa 87 times during the regular season and possibly still finish with the majors’ best record is a testament to the overall strength of their roster. So, even if Correa’s not available come playoff time, Houston still figures to enter the proceedings with as good a chance as anyone to take home a World Series title. Obviously, though, a healthy Correa would only enhance the Astros’ odds of winning their second championship since 2017.

Red Sox Planning Contract Extension Offer For Rafael Devers

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The Red Sox are preparing to offer Rafael Devers a long-term contract this winter, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports.  In general, most extensions aren’t discussed and/or completed until after the bulk of other offseason business has been completed, so more concrete news on this front might not surface until closer to Spring Training.

It only makes sense that the Sox would look to gain some cost certainty over a player who has emerged as a huge force in 2019.  Devers has hit .308/.359/.553 with 32 homers over 697 plate appearances, with a 131 wRC+ that ranks 13th among all qualified batters in baseball.  There have been questions about Devers’ ability to stick as a third baseman, though he at least held his own defensively depending on the metric; he had a +3 UZR/150, though a minus-6 in Defensive Runs Saved.

Long considered one of the game’s top prospects, Devers had a nice debut in 2017 before struggling in his first full MLB season in 2018, yet now he looks firmly established as a fixture in Boston’s lineup.  To that end, Devers is already under team control through the 2023 season, and he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 campaign.  The Sox will surely look to lock up at least two or three of his free agent seasons in any extension, though it would come at a high price.  Devers will only be 27 years old on Opening Day 2024, and that relatively early entry into free agency will definitely raise his price tag on the open market (assuming he keeps up his current form, of course).

Last spring saw an unprecedented burst of extensions around the game, as a wide variety of players chose financial security over the uncertainty of an increasingly tight free agent market and the potential for labor strife when the current collective bargaining agreement expires following the 2021 season.  It’s possible Devers could follow suit, as he hasn’t banked an overt amount of money in his career (minimum salaries and his original $1.5MM international signing bonus) and might want to guarantee himself that proverbial “first fortune.”  Devers is represented by Rep 1 Baseball, who had another high-profile client in Luis Severino ink an extension with the Yankees last February.

Alex Bregman also signed a five-year, $100MM extension with the Astros back in March, which Bradford suggests could be a model for a Devers contract.  Bregman had hit .282./366/.500 with 58 homers over 1548 PA and 361 games at the time of his deal, while Devers has a .281/.335/.501 career mark with 63 homers through 1422 PA and 333 games.  However, Bregman is also over 2.5 years older than Devers, and wouldn’t have hit free agency until after his age-28 season.  Bregman is also a more defensively adept player that the Astros can count on to continue as a third baseman for years to come, whereas the Red Sox could still have an eye towards eventually shifting Devers over to first base down the road.

Perhaps the better way to view Bregman’s extension as a comp for Devers is in the specific terms of the agreement.  Bregman’s extension doesn’t actually begin until the 2020 season (covering his three arbitration years and first two free agent years), and thus the luxury tax hit associated with the deal doesn’t apply until next year.  Had Bregman’s 2019 season also been factored into the contract, it would’ve given him a luxury tax number of roughly $16.66MM, and left Houston with little wiggle room to stay under the $206MM luxury tax threshold.  Exceeding that threshold for one year in search of a World Series title might not have been a big deal for the Astros, though with Bregman still on a minimum salary, Houston is still projected to avoid any tax payments even after making a big deadline splash by acquiring Zack Greinke.

As it relates to Devers, one would think the Sox would explore a similar extension, one that wouldn’t begin until 2021 (his first arbitration-eligible year).  This would be a huge boost to the club in its goal to get under the luxury tax threshold this winter, since ducking under the $208MM limit and maintaining a competitive roster would be much more difficult if Devers suddenly had a $15-$20MM average annual value attached to his services.

Luis Arraez Suffers Sprained Right Ankle

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Twins super-utilityman Luis Arraez had to be carted off the field during the seventh inning of today’s 4-3 Minnesota win over Kansas City.  Arraez and teammate Willians Astudillo collided on the pitcher’s mound while chasing a pop-up off the bat of the Royals’ Hunter Dozier.

As ugly as the injury looked, x-rays were negative, and Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters that Arraez suffered a sprained right ankle.  The severity of the sprain isn’t yet certain, and the team doesn’t yet know whether or not Arraez will be available for Game One of the ALDS against the Yankees on Friday.

Losing Arraez for the postseason would be a major blow for the Twins, which represents just how much of an impact the 22-year-old has made in his rookie season.  After making his MLB debut in mid-May, Arraez was recalled from Triple-A for good on June 18 and has been an everyday player for Minnesota, playing mostly at second base but also seeing significant time as a left fielder and third baseman (plus a handful of games at shortstop).

As a pure contact hitter in today’s power-heavy game, Arraez’s throwback approach has resulted in solidly above-average offensive production (125 wRC+) and a .334/.399/.439 slash line over 366 plate appearances.  Arraez’s 8.0% strikeout rate is the lowest of any player with at least 350 PA this season, and he is one of the very few regulars who racked up more walks (36) than strikeouts (29).

There was a bit of good fortune mixed into those results, as Arraez’s .334 xwOBA was below his .367 wOBA and he did enjoy a .355 BABIP.  But his performance wasn’t exactly a surprise, as Arraez consistently scored high BABIP totals while also posting high averages and on-base numbers during his six years in Minnesota’s farm system.  Arraez wasn’t considered to be a top-flight prospect, though he did hit .331/.385/.414 over 1585 PA as a Twins minor leaguer.

Even if Arraez is out for Game One, the Twins are expected to get some reinforcements back in the form of Max Kepler and Marwin Gonzalez.  Arraez essentially usurped the super-util role the Twins had in mind for Gonzalez when they signed him to a two-year, $21MM free agent deal last winter, though Gonzalez has battled some injuries and been inconsistent at the plate.

AL Notes: Tigers, Paxton, Cease, Orioles

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Although Tigers manager Ron Gardenhire has indicated his desire to return to the club next season, the fate of his coaching staff may yet be up in the air, according to Evan Woodbery of MLive Media Group. With the season coming to a close, general manager Al Avila and company are apparently still faced with decisions regarding the status of the team’s staff, with announcements to come at season’s end. As The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen speculates, that certainly makes it seem like changes are coming, though of course any relevant announcements will have to wait. Gardenhire previously expressed his hope that his staff would remain intact for 2020, the final year of his contract. That group includes familiar faces like Rick Anderson and Steve Liddle, as well as Lloyd McClendon and Ramon Santiago. However, after such a dreadful year in all facets of the game, the front office will certainly look critically at the coaching.

From elsewhere around the American League…

  • Yankees fans shook their heads in disbelief as starter James Paxton left yesterday’s game after just one inning. However, it seems that the team managed to avoid yet another significant injury; Paxton underwent an MRI this morning that revealed nothing but nerve irritation, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. His removal from the game was merely a precaution and is not expected to affect his availability in the approaching ALDS. The club has faced questions all year about postseason pitching, and an injury to Paxton—the team’s most reliable starter in the second half—would have sent the New York faithful spiraling.
  • White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 hamstring strain, according to James Fegan of The Athletic. He was scratched from his schedule start on Thursday, and of course won’t pitch again this season. While the two-to-four week timeline that comes with the injury is of little significance at this time of year, it’s nonetheless good to hear that the promising rookie will be at full health before too long. He’s had some growing pains as a rookie but has shown some encouraging signs, striking out 81 batters in his first 73 innings as a big-leaguer. With 141 1/3 innings between several levels, he’s also amassed his biggest workload as a pro.
  • It’s no secret that Orioles pitching has come up short this year, but first-year pitching coach Doug Brocail expected some struggles when he took the job last winter. As he and a new front office regime attempt to build a pitching staff from the ground-up, Brocail offers some insight into the state of the organization in an interview with Dan Connolly of The Athletic (subscription required). There’s a long way to go for the team, but Brocail is seeing marginal improvements with rookie general manager Mike Elias trying to play catch-up after inheriting last year’s MLB-worst roster. With the emergence of John Means and the continued growth of the organization’s analytics department, there are some positive takeaways from his first year on the Baltimore staff.

Latest On Mookie Betts

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As the Red Sox season mercifully nears its conclusion, a difficult decision looms on the horizon for the club and whoever it hires to assume the vacant general manager post. With a contract extension looking unlikely for all-world outfielder Mookie Betts, it looks like a “realistic possibility” that he will be traded this offseason, writes Christopher Smith of masslive.com.

With just one year of team control remaining before he could hit free agency, the Red Sox will have to weigh whether to deal Betts now for a haul of controllable players, or ride it out for another year and recoup a draft pick after extending the qualifying offer. It’s worth noting that such a momentous decision will surely be a topic of discussion in GM interviews, though ultimately the decision will likely be made by ownership.

For his part, Betts has given ample reason to believe that he intends to test the open market after the 2020 season, at which point the Red Sox could only receive draft pick compensation should he choose to sign elsewhere. Thus, if the organization wants to retain the most value in exchange for its best asset, trading Betts would be the way to go. Of course, Betts could still re-sign with the Red Sox after testing free agency, but the Red Sox certainly wouldn’t bank on that outcome.

Otherwise, the Red Sox could simply hang on to Betts and pencil him into the leadoff spot for another crack at the postseason. Assuming he leaves at the end of the year, the Sox would only collect a draft pick in this scenario, but if the team wants to maximize its chances of returning to the Fall Classic, Betts needs to be in the lineup. He’s unquestionably been one of the most productive players in baseball over the last few years, ranking second behind only Mike Trout in fWAR since 2016.

But with Red Sox ownership intent on cutting payroll to sneak under the luxury tax, now might be the time to cash in on Betts’s trade value. In his final arbitration season, Betts is a virtual lock to fetch a salary approaching $30MM. Last offseason, he reeled in a $20MM payday that established the benchmark for players in his service class. After another fantastic season, a similar uptick in pay would place him in the neighborhood of $30MM. It would be hard to reconcile such a hefty price for one player with a top-down mandate to shed payroll.

To be sure, there’s considerable money coming off the books with Rick Porcello and Pablo Sandoval’s contracts expiring (with the potential for more should J.D. Martinez opt out of his deal). However, that will be offset somewhat by extensions for Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts kicking in next year. Add in pay raises for arbitration-eligible players, and the Red Sox may already be approaching that tax number before any additional spending in the offseason. And with limited options to trim expenditures across the roster, Betts looks like a logical candidate to go.

Certainly, though, the Red Sox won’t force a deal if the price isn’t right. The club will surely insist on a handsome return for its MVP, and the trade market will have some sway in the team’s decision to pull the trigger on a deal. If Boston’s offers are underwhelming, there’s no pressure to trade Betts; keeping him around for another year can only help the team’s chances in 2020.

Interested teams will be wary that Betts may only be a one-year rental, and will therefore be hesitant to surrender promising youngsters who could benefit their club for years to come. It’s a risk, sure, but there are precious few opportunities to add a 26-year-old MVP in the prime of his career, and making such a move instantly boosts any team’s odds.

Steve Pearce Considering Retirement

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Hero and MVP of the 2018 World Series Steve Pearce is considering retirement, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe.

Last season ended in storybook fashion for the long-time role player as he turned in a historic performance for his favorite team from childhood, the Boston Red Sox. The 36-year-old was acquired from the Blue Jays in June mostly to serve as a right-handed option at first base, but he reached another gear at the biggest time of the year. In five games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Pearce went 4-12 with a .500 OBP, 3 home runs, and 8 RBIs in earning MVP honors.

As incredible as last season ended, however, this season was an equal disaster. In just 29 games, Pearce turned in a miserable .180/.245/.258 line worth -0.6 bWAR, last appearing at the end of May while suffering from back and knee injuries. Pearce was just one part of the topsy-turvy season in Boston, though his reversal-of-fortune was perhaps the most extreme.

Pearce holds a career line of .254/.332/.440 while playing parts of 13 seasons for the Pirates, Orioles, Astros, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, and Red Sox, notably appearing in uniform for all five teams in the AL East. On his potential retirement, Pearce said, “I would have liked to have gone out a little bit different. If this year was a little bit different. But that’s baseball. That’s why it’s the most beautiful game in the world.”

Injury Notes: Paxton, Hale, Hicks, Vlad Jr.

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Yankees ace James Paxton exited his final start of the season on Friday after just one inning because of left glute tightness, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Paxton’s removal was a precautionary measure, and were it not for the looming postseason matchup with the Twins, Paxton likely could have pitched through what he described as “dull soreness.” The rotation is New York’s biggest question mark going into the playoffs, and Paxton is clearly a key piece. He’s 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA/3.87 FIP across 150 2/3 innings for the season, landing fairly close to career marks both in terms of efficiency and durability. Paxton’s status as the likely ALDS game one starter is not at present affected by his early departure on Friday, though he will certainly be monitored closely, and one would think it might affect the amount of leash given him in the ALDS opener. In other injury news heading into Saturday’s action…

  • The Yankees PR department announced David Hale’s reinstatement from the 60-day injured list. Hale, 32, had a strong start to the season going 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA/3.30 FIP across 19 innings. He last pitched on July 26 against the Red Sox, finishing a strong month of July when he posted a 2.63 ERA. Hale has a part in two major storylines of the Yankees season, both as a resident of the overfull trainer’s room, and as one of the many unsung contributors to their 2019 success.  Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, was moved to the 60-day injured list. It’s been mostly a lost season for Hicks, who nonetheless contributed 1.2 bWAR in 59 games when healthy via a .235/.325/.443 line with 12 home runs.
  • Rookie fan favorite Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was scratched from today’s lineup with right knee soreness, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca. If Vlad Jr. misses both of the Blue Jays final games, he’ll finish his rookie season with a .272/.339/.433 line across 123 games while notching 15 home runs and 69 RBIs. His 105 wRC+ is not perhaps the world-breaking debut that many expected, but in effort and showmanship, Vlad Jr. more than held his own. His performance at the home run derby will go down as the defining moment of his rookie season, where he showed the national audience more than enough to justify the hype of the past few seasons.

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