Archives for December 2019

Notes On Dallas Keuchel, Market Trends

By Anthony Franco | December 22, 2019 at 8:37am CDT

The White Sox continued their active offseason by inking Dallas Keuchel to a three-year deal with a vesting option for a fourth. Let’s check in on some reactions to Chicago’s most recent splash, as well as a look at broader market trends.

The Sox are still a bit shy of being legitimate contenders, feels ESPN’s David Schoenfield. Between some anticipated regression from Tim Anderson, whose .399 BABIP is not sustainable, and uncertainty among Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal and Nomar Mazara, Chicago’s lineup doesn’t match up with the league’s elite, even if it is rife with upside. In Schoenfield’s estimation, that’s not quite enough to support a rotation that still looks a bit underwhelming. Keuchel and Gio González are reliable but no longer top-of-the-rotation starters, and there’s little in the way of depth beyond those two and ace Lucas Giolito. Skepticism aside, Schoenfield notes there’s little question this will be the most exciting White Sox team in recent memory.
The Athletic’s James Fegan feels similarly, pointing out that the Sox may not contend until the soon to be 32-year-old Keuchel is firmly on the downside of his career. Nevertheless, Fegan praises the signing as a “declarative moment” for the franchise. Between Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal, the organization is showing “seriousness and urgency about breaking an embarrassing eleven-year playoff drought,” Fegan argues. Keuchel should be a positive in the clubhouse, he feels, and Chicago no doubt needed to add capable arms to a rotation that was the league’s sixth-worst run prevention unit in 2019.
While the 72-win White Sox have been busy this offseason, playoff teams have actually been the most active in free agency thus far, found Ben Clemens of Fangraphs in a piece which predated the Keuchel signing. 58.6% of free agents worth at least 2 fWAR last season have inked with teams who made the postseason in 2019. (Keuchel’s signing wouldn’t change that figure, as he was worth just 0.8 wins in his abbreviated time with the Braves). If that trend were to hold, it would make for the highest rate of quality free agents flocking to playoff teams in the past twenty years. Grandal, Mike Moustakas and Anthony Rendon are among the notable exceptions. Nevertheless, as Clemens explores more fully, teams looking to defend their postseason berths, not those hoping to unseat recent powerhouses, have been the first to strike in free agency.

Phillies Sign T.J. Rivera To Minor-League Deal

By Anthony Franco | December 22, 2019 at 6:03am CDT

The Phillies agreed to a minor-league deal last week with T.J. Rivera, as first reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). No other terms are known, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the former Mets’ infielder secured an invite to MLB spring training.

Rivera, now 31, hasn’t seen MLB action since a September 2017 Tommy John Surgery. Before that injury, he had done fairly well as a role player in Queens, slashing .304/.335/.445 (109 wRC+), while logging time at first, second, third and in left field. He’s never been one to draw many walks or hit for much power, but he perennially put the ball in play in the minors and ran a minuscule 14.2% strikeout rate over his 344 MLB plate appearances.

Rivera latched on with the Nationals on a minor-league deal last August, but an undisclosed injury limited him to fifteen games in AA. He’ll try to earn a spot as a right-handed utility option off Joe Girardi’s bench, much like Phil Gosselin, whom the Phillies also recently signed to a minor-league deal.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Dallas Keuchel Deal

By Dylan A. Chase | December 22, 2019 at 12:24am CDT

Dallas Keuchel is the newest member of the White Sox, courtesy of a three-year, $55.5MM deal with a vesting option that could push the final value of the deal to 4/$74MM. At 31 years old, Keuchel can’t be called an upside play, nor is he likely, given recent performance, to repeat the kind of output that saw him earn a Cy Young award back in 2015. But, in committing multiple years and an $18.5MM AAV to the lefty, the White Sox seemed to, for the moment, answer an age-old question: just what is the value of “pretty good”, anyway?

For front offices in recent offseasons, “pretty good” has seemed to be a non-starter. When Keuchel was on the market just last winter, more than a few observers offered opinions on why the lefty struggled to find a long-term deal: there was the dip in velocity; the mid-3.00 FIPs; a resounding lack of strikeout oomph. Few argued that Keuchel was an incompetent pitcher, but words like “impact”, “upside”, and “premier” were not what one would have ascribed to him. A year later, debate will likely still follow his receipt of a deal that, if vested, will be within throwing distance of a $100MM.

Then again, if the case of Dallas Keuchel and his recent forays into the open market say anything, the commentary may be more about the current qualifying offer system than anything else. Sure, one could argue that the prorated, one-year, $13MM deal he signed with the Braves last year was of the “prove it” variety— a chance to show that downward trends in velocity and underlying metrics wouldn’t threaten his bottom-line results. But did Keuchel really prove that in 2019?

Across 112.2 innings with Atlanta, Keuchel basically pitched to career averages. His 3.72 ERA (3.67 career ERA), 7.27 K/9 (7.16 career K/9), and 60.1% GB rate (58.9% career GB rate) in 2019 were all in keeping with his broader body of work, if not slightly better. Meanwhile, he continued to show diminished velocity (88.3 mean mph in 2019) and his 4.72 FIP would tell you he was somewhat benefitted by the defense playing behind him in Atlanta—leaving some remaining question as to whether his performance is sustainable. Basically, Keuchel is the same guy who entered last offseason in search of a long-term deal—except one year older, and, perhaps more critically, free of a QO. For those inclined to criticize this deal as an overpay based on what the lefty received last offseason, it would pay to bear that in mind.

Within the context of this offseason, Keuchel checks in comfortably below what Madison Bumgarner received from Arizona. That five-year, $85MM was slightly lighter in terms of AAV, although that was likely a secondary consideration with respect to the opportunity to maximize guaranteed dollars—plus, we know Bumgarner was rather adamant about ending up in Arizona and may have left richer offers on the table. Meanwhile, it trumps what Kyle Gibson earned, and is miles above the one-year, $9MM guarantee that Julio Teheran—another player comfortably within the hall of pretty good—received from Los Angeles. This may not register as brilliant analysis, but, for the moment, Keuchel’s deal seems to occupy its own little window in the winter of 2019-2020.

For a relatively recent precedent, we might look, perhaps a bit ironically, to the four-year, $67.5MM contract Nathan Eovaldi drew from the Red Sox in the very same offseason that saw Keuchel left out in the cold. Eovaldi was likely able to earn that sum because of his relative youth, postseason performance, and, of course, premier amounts of impact/upside. Keuchel was lacking in a few of those departments last offseason, but, then again, he offered a few things Eovaldi did not: a broad track record of stability, numerous 30-start seasons, and a sinker-based repertoire that may prove more immune to season-over-season vagaries. He may lack Eovaldi’s horizon, but he offers a “pretty good” floor. That Keuchel should ultimately line up alongside Eovaldi in terms of AAV is perhaps a fitting commentary on his value.

So, what say you? Is this an overpay for veteran stability or a reasonable investment in the market’s mid-point? Just what is the value of pretty good, anyway? (Poll link for app users)

NL Notes: Donaldson, Braves, Mets, Arenado, Hernandez

By Dylan A. Chase | December 21, 2019 at 10:30pm CDT

A fourth guaranteed year has been said to be the lynchpin in any potential deal for third baseman Josh Donaldson this winter, leaving interested teams in a precarious spot as they play chicken with the veteran’s representatives. The Braves, in particular, could be in something of a no-mans-land if they miss out on Donaldson, as they would lose their incumbent starter and potentially see a league rival (Nationals, Dodgers) strengthen their lineup at the same time. As David O’Brien of The Athletic sees it, the team’s two recourses in the event of a Donaldson departure may be the exploration of trades for either Kris Bryant of the Cubs or Nolan Arenado of the Rockies—and neither of those options is entirely realistic in the writer’s eyes. For Bryant, his ongoing grievance with the Cubs adds a fair bit of uncertainty for any interested trade partner. While the Cubs are, as O’Brien puts it, “widely expected” to win that grievance hearing and maintain two years of control on Bryant, it’s not impossible that the tide could swing in Bryant’s favor and leave him with just one year left.

When it comes to Arenado, O’Brien seems merely skeptical that Atlanta would be willing to swallow a contract of that magnitude, considering that the $35MM annual salaries in Arenado’s deal would more than double the highest salary that Braves star Ronald Acuna will make in the final years of the eight-year, $100MM extension he signed in April. Then again, Donaldson has reportedly given the Braves the right of last refusal on any potential deal, so it may well be that Atlanta ends up viewing a four-year Donaldson deal as the most reasonable course of action. Given that Washington and Minnesota have reportedly made four-year offers already, this may be a case of a player waiting for his preferred team to blink.

Quick Hits: Angels, Ohtani, Rojas, Revenue, Lefties

By Dylan A. Chase | December 21, 2019 at 8:36pm CDT

A few brief words of update on the Angels. Billy Eppler said during a press conference call that the team is considering various options for Shohei Ohtani this season, including “delaying him a little bit”, relays Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register (link). We’ve already heard that the club plans to keep him on an NPB-esque pitching schedule this season as he continues to work back from Tommy John surgery, but it’s uncertain if “delay” in this case means he’ll be held out of action late into Spring Training, or further.

Meanwhile, Maria Torres of the LA Times reports, from that same call, that Eppler acknowledged that the team “can add” to its already “strong” group of pitchers (link). That’s not a definitive statement, and the club’s opportunities to add might be dwindling now that one more arm is off the open market as of Saturday evening. Torres also reports that 26-year-old prospect Jose Rojas will receive an invite to big league camp this spring after a Triple-A season in which he hit .293/.362/.577 with 31 home runs.

More from around the game…

Declining attendance be damned—MLB’s revenue streams are flowing fine. According to a Saturday piece from Forbes, gross revenues for the league were a record $10.7 billion for 2019, up from $10.3 billion last year, according to industry sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity. And the upward slant should continue in future years; as noted by Forbes, the league’s deal with Fox television kicks in during the 2022 season and that deal alone has a reported value of $5.1 billion. For those wondering, MLB player payroll and benefits came in at $4.7 billion last year—leaving plenty of pie to go around for administrators, front-office types and ownership figures. The league has seen adjusted revenue growth of 386% since 1992.
ESPN’s Sam Miller took a closer look at the forthcoming thee-batter rule, including its real-life implications for several veteran LOOGYs. Miller coins the term “Ollies” (in honor of Indians journeyman Oliver Perez) to represent any appearance that is set to be outlawed under the new rules–which require that pitchers face three batters or get the final out of an inning before being replaced. Perez led the league with 22 such “Ollies” in 2019, while Andrew Chafin, Alex Claudio and Adam Kolarek all logged 15 or more such appearances. Of course, the forthcoming change didn’t stop the Brewers from re-signing Claudio earlier this offseason, so we can all rest assured that left-handed specialists aren’t going anywhere for the time being.

MLB, MLBUA Reach Tentative Labor Agreement

By Dylan A. Chase | December 21, 2019 at 6:26pm CDT

Major League Baseball (MLB) and the Major League Baseball Umpires Association (MLBUA) have reached a tentative five-year labor agreement through the 2024 regular season, according to a press release from the league. The agreement is subject to the ratification of the 30 clubs and the umpires themselves, with the next steps in that process expected in Jan. 2020.

First indications are that this is not just a ho-hum labor pact. According to a tweet from Jon Heyman of the MLB Network, the umpires “agreed to cooperate” with the league in the continued testing and development of automated balls and strikes (link). The Major League Baseball Umpires Association also agreed to assist if Commissioner Rob Manfred decides to utilize the system at the major league level, corroborates a report from the Associated Press.

Last season saw the launch of computerized strike zones in lower levels of organized baseball. The independent Atlantic League became the first American pro league to let a computer call balls and strikes at its All-Star Game on July 10. The system used combined an iPhone, a Trackman computer system and Doppler radar to relay proper calls to home plate umps. The Arizona Fall League also gave the system a trial run, and MLB had already been in talks to install the system at the Class A Florida State League for 2020. “This idea has been around for a long time and it’s the first time it’s been brought to life in a comprehensive way,” Morgan Sword, MLB’s senior vice president of economics and operations, said on the night the Atlantic League experiment started, as quoted in the AP story.

While most headlines tomorrow will surely revolve around the “robo ump” implications of this new pact, it’s also worth sharing that the sides agreed to raises in compensation and retirement benefits along with provisions to allow earlier retirement, as noted by both the AP and Heyman. With the current CBA scheduled for expiration in less than two years, it’s at least some sign of stability that the league and umpires union were able to strike a mutually beneficial labor accord.

AL Notes: Indians, Blue Jays, Farrell, Franco, Astros

By TC Zencka and Dylan A. Chase | December 21, 2019 at 5:52pm CDT

It may be a white-knuckle weekend in the Cleveland area, as fans wait to see if submitted offers for cornerstone player Francisco Lindor prove to be sufficient for the Indians’ front office. It’s already been an offseason of no small intrigue, with the Corey Kluber trade further redefining the direction of the Cleveland franchise. One more question for the team before camp breaks? What to do about their abundance of outfield options. As Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer points out in a Saturday reader mailbag, the Kluber trade, in bringing back Delino DeShields, leaves the club with a whopping nine outfielders on their 40-man roster.

As a careful observer might note, that tally only stands if we consider the DH-bound Franmil Reyes as an outfielder, but it’s a gaggle of on-the-grass options to sort through nonetheless. While each of Greg Allen, Jake Bauers, Daniel Johnson, Jordan Luplow, Oscar Mercado, Tyler Naquin, Bradley Zimmer, and DeShields has merit, Hoynes is right in pointing out that Mercado may be the only clear-cut starter of the group. If one of Lindor or Mike Clevinger does ultimately end up on the move, perhaps it should come as little surprise if a more stable outfield option comes back the other way.

Although outsiders might think that Shane Farrell’s hiring as Toronto’s amateur scouting director was aided by his family ties, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet shares that the hire “won’t likely be popular with Blue Jays fans”—in part because many club followers still bristle at the team’s decision to trade Shane’s father John to the rival Red Sox in 2012. Still, Nicholson-Smith shares that the younger Farrell was described as “very intelligent” and a “strong evaluator” by an unnamed NL scout. Then again, it’s not as if any claims of nepotism could have been entertained seriously, considering that the Cubs interviewed Farrell for their VP of Scouting opening just this offseason.
The Royals’ decision to pluck Maikel Franco off the wire wasn’t exactly made on a hunch. As Alex Lewis explores in a mailbag for The Athletic, Kansas City evaluators found “a few oddities in Franco’s swing from his more successful seasons (2016-18) to last season (2019) in a video study session”. Lewis shares that the club is “optimistic” that they can fix Franco’s issues–not exactly a ridiculous gambit considering his age (27) and early promise. Lewis also looks back at a story from The Athletic’s Matt Gelb, written around the time Franco was demoted in August, that noted certain adjustments the third baseman made to hit fewer balls on the ground may have been behind an infield popup rate of 23.7 percent at the time of his call-down.
Recent reunions with Martin Maldonado and Joe Smith has inched the Houston Astros’ projected payroll very close to the $228MM luxury tax threshold. They would avoid a repeater tax, though a 12% surtax comes with the $20MM overage (the base tax line is set at $208MM for 2020). Jason Martinez at Roster Resource pegs Houston’s luxury tax estimate at just over $137MM, well past that second line and fast approaching the third tax line of $248MM. Given that Houston previously indicated a desire to stay under even the $228MM line, they are probably done shopping for the winter, at the very least as far as position players are concerned, per The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan.

Angels Sign Julio Teheran

By Mark Polishuk | December 21, 2019 at 4:35pm CDT

DECEMBER 21, 4:35PM: Teheran’s deal with the Angels is now official, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.

DECEMBER 19: The Angels and right-hander Julio Teheran have agreed to a one-year contract, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). Teheran will earn $9MM in the deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reports. Teheran is represented by the Wasserman agency.

After spending his first nine seasons in Atlanta, Teheran will now head west to join what the Angels hope will be a greatly improved pitching staff. Los Angeles has been linked to numerous top free agent starters, though their pitching acquisitions have thus far been more modest, between signing Teheran and trading four minor league pitchers to the Orioles for Dylan Bundy. While putting Teheran and Bundy behind Shohei Ohtani still represents an upgrade for the Halos, one suspects the Angels will still look to add a topline arm rather than count on Ohtani to be an ace in his first season back from Tommy John surgery.

Given the amount of pitching injuries the Angels have faced in recent years, Teheran’s durability is a big plus. The righty has averaged 191 innings per season from 2013-19, with only two minimal injured list stints (for a thumb contusion and a lat strain) in that span. While Teheran has two All-Star appearances to his name and looked for a time like he could become the ace of the Braves’ staff, his last three seasons have been more modest.

From 2017-19, Teheran has 3.3 total fWAR, a 4.09 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 1.99 K/BB rate over 538 2/3 frames. While he posted a 3.81 ERA in 2019, ERA predictors like FIP (4.66), xFIP (5.26), and SIERA (5.11) painted a much more dire picture of Teheran’s 2019 performance. He also posted a career-high 39.1% hard-hit ball rate, and he finished in the bottom tenth percentile of all qualified pitchers in fastball velocity, with only a 89.7mph average on his heater. (In more positive Statcast news, Teheran had above-average fastball spin and finished in the 84th percentile in terms of curveball spin.)

Given these less-than-impressive advanced metrics, it wasn’t entirely surprising that the Braves chose to buy out the final year of Teheran’s contract for $1MM rather than pay him a $12MM salary for 2020. (Teheran was playing on a six-year, $32.4MM extension signed prior to the 2014 season.) The one-year guarantee from L.A. was also less than the two-year, $18MM MLBTR projected for him at the outset of the offseason. The Teheran signing looks somewhat akin to the short-term signings of Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill that Angels GM Billy Eppler orchestrated last winter, though obviously Eppler will be hoping for much more than the near-minimal return Harvey and Cahill brought to the 2019 Angels.

With Teheran now in the fold, the Angels have a projected luxury tax payroll of just over $185.5MM, as per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. There’s still plenty of daylight between the Angels (who have never paid a tax penalty) and the $208MM luxury tax threshold, so Los Angeles has room to still make more additions to the pitching staff or the roster as a whole.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Rangers Acquire Adolis Garcia

By George Miller | December 21, 2019 at 2:59pm CDT

The Rangers have acquired outfielder Adolis García from the Cardinals, per an official team release. Texas will send cash considerations back the other way in the deal. Right-hander Jimmy Herget was designated for assignment to clear a spot on the Rangers’ 40-man roster.

The Cardinals designated García for assignment on Wednesday to make room for Kwang-Hyun Kim. His Cardinals stint ends after making just 17 plate appearance with the Major League club. The 26-year-old outfielder signed a free agent prior to 2017, having played professionally in Cuba and Japan since 2011.

García spent the entire 2019 season at Triple-A, posting a .253/.301/.517 batting line with 32 home runs. Skeptics would advise to take those numbers with a grain of salt, given the hitter-friendly environment in the Pacific Coast League (not to mention the “juiced” ball that was introduced to the Triple-A ranks in 2019). He’s been strikeout-prone throughout his professional career, but his impactful power, above-average speed and strong throwing arm mean that he could have a chance to get big-league playing time as a reserve outfielder. And with Delino Deshields Jr. out of the mix, García has a path to the Majors with Texas, though future additions may impede that path.

Herget, meanwhile, lasted just about three weeks on the Rangers’ 40-man, having been claimed on December 2 this winter. The 26-year-old righty made his Major League debut last year with the Reds after posting solid numbers in Triple-A, where he struck out 68 batters and posted a 2.91 ERA in 58 2/3 innings. The Rangers will have a week to make a decision on Herget, who can be traded, released, or outrighted to the minors.

Mets, Yoenis Cespedes Agree To Amended Contract

By Jeff Todd | December 21, 2019 at 2:34pm CDT

DECEMBER 21: Under the amended contract, Cespedes will see his 2020 base salary drop from $29.5MM to just $6MM, according to a report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. However, that number will hike up to $11MM as soon as Cespedes is on the active roster or the IL with an injury unrelated to the contentious ankle fracture. Cespedes will still be able to reach the $20MM threshold through a series of plate appearance bonuses totaling $9MM; if he reaches 650 plate appearances, he will earn that entire amount.

Earlier Updates

5:25pm: Cespedes’s pocketbook has taken a huge hit, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter. In addition to losing some of his 2019 earnings, he’ll now be guaranteed less than $10MM for the season to come. He can earn his way back to the $20MM range through the incentives.

For the Mets, the benefit comes primarily from the perspective of cash accounting. It’s unclear whether this modification will be reflected in the calculation of the team’s payroll for purposes of computing the competitive balance tax. Even if so, the reduction presumably wouldn’t be dollar-for-dollar (barring some special treatment), since the CBT refers to the average annual salary of a contract.

4:29pm: Much but not all of the guarantee can be recouped via performance and awards bonuses, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

3:58pm: There’s more to this story (and more sure to come). The Mets stopped paying his salary at some point during the 2019 season, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). The organization also brought a grievance action relating to Cespedes’s 2020 earnings.

The involvement of Cespedes’s 2019 salary adds another wrinkle to this. For one thing, it seems the club has been saving on its hefty obligations to the veteran slugger for some time. (Timing remains unclear.) For another, it appears there was quite a lot more cash at stake in the dispute than was already evident. Cespedes was due to earn $29MM last year.

3:21pm: The Mets and injured outfielder Yoenis Cespedes have agreed to “amend” the remainder of his contract with the team, according to Andy Martino of SNY.tv (Twitter link). Details of the arrangement aren’t yet clear, but it seems there is a modification to the salary Cespedes will earn in the coming season.

As things stand, Cespedes is due $29.5MM in the final season of his four-year deal. He’ll remain under contract, but at a lower rate. The modification relates to the injury suffered this May. Cespedes shattered his right ankle in an accident on his ranch while recovering from successive surgeries to both heels.

While we still lack a full public accounting of how Cespedes was injured, it seems clear that he was in a jeopardized position with regard to his contract. This settlement — which surely involved the league and union — will allow both sides to avoid the cost and strain of a full-throated legal battle. For the Mets, they now know just how much they will save on their obligations to Cespedes at a key juncture in the offseason.

The Mets entered the winter with a payroll predicament. This news promises to free up a good chunk of change to put towards other uses. The club will still have Cespedes on hand as a complete wild card — his talent is undeniable but his physical capabilities are at this point unknown — but can divert a substantial portion of what it would’ve paid him to other purposes. The club had reportedly been looking to move some underperforming contracts as a means of freeing payroll. Just how the offseason course will be impacted by today’s news remains to be seen.

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