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Archives for March 2020

10 NL West Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Seasons

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MLBTR’s preseason series ends with National League West pitchers looking to bounce back in 2020. These 10 talented hurlers are hoping to get off the mat after difficult seasons…

Alex Wood, LHP, Dodgers:

The 29-year-old Wood is back in Los Angeles, where he experienced a great deal of success in 2015-18, after a Murphy’s Law season spent in Cincinnati. A back injury limited Wood to 35 2/3 innings of 5.80 ERA/6.38 FIP pitching last year after Cincinnati acquired him from Los Angeles expecting high-end production. Not unreasonable on the Reds’ part, as Wood had combined for a 3.29 ERA/3.36 FIP with 8.27 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent groundball rate in 803 1/3 innings as a Brave and Dodger from 2013-18. The Dodgers brought him back on a low-risk guarantee ($4MM) in the offseason. They may strike gold if Wood can stay healthy.

Blake Treinen, RHP, Dodgers:

Like his new teammate Wood, Treinen was excellent in the recent past before falling off a cliff last season. Just two years ago, Treinen – then an Athletic – turned in one of the greatest seasons a reliever has ever had. But last year went awry for Treinen, who dealt with multiple injuries and logged subpar numbers. Treinen wound up with a 4.91 ERA/5.14 FIP and 9.05 K/9, 5.68 BB/9 and a 42.8 percent grounder rate over 58 2/3 innings. He lost his job as the A’s closer along the way, and they non-tendered him after the season. The hard-throwing Treinen landed on his feet, though, with a $10MM guarantee from the Dodgers.

Kyle Freeland, LHP, Rockies:

The soft-tossing Freeland was an NL Cy Young candidate back in 2018, so no one could have expected such a miserable showing in 2019. As it turned out, though, Freeland struggled so mightily that the Rockies optioned him to Triple-A at one point in the season. In the majors, he ended up with a brutal 6.73 ERA/5.99 FIP (compared to 2.85/3.67 the prior year) and 6.81 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9 across 104 1/3 innings, averaging fewer than five frames per start along the way. The 26-year-old’s severe drop-off was among the reasons the Rockies went from playoff team in 2018 to bottom-feeding club last season.

Wade Davis, RHP, Rockies:

Speaking of stunning declines from members of Colorado’s pitching staff … Davis continued his descent in 2019. In the second season of a three-year, $52MM contract, the once-untouchable Davis recorded an abysmal 8.65 ERA/5.56 FIP and walked more than six batters per nine over 42 2/3 innings. Davis also rated as one of Statcast’s worst pitchers, finishing toward the bottom of the league in average exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average and strikeout percentage, among other categories.

Johnny Cueto, RHP, Giants:

Even though he only pitched 16 innings last season, it’s tough not to include Cueto on this list. The former ace is hoping for his first full season in a while, as injuries (including Tommy John surgery in 2018) held him to a mere 216 1/3 innings over the previous three years. During his halcyon days, Cueto – now 34 – used to throw around that many innings in a single season. The Giants still owe Cueto $47MM through 2021, so a rebound effort would be all the more welcome for them.

Kevin Gausman, RHP, Giants:

Gausman, whom the Giants added for $9MM in free agency, is in line to join Cueto in their rotation. The hope for the club is that he’ll fare much better than he did in 2019 – a disappointing season for a pitcher who has been consistently respectable. Gausman performed so poorly as a Brave that they placed him on outright waivers in August, but he did turn his season around as a strikeout-heavy reliever in Cincinnati. However, despite 10.03 K/9 against 2.81 BB/9, Gausman could only muster a 5.72 ERA (granted, with a much more encouraging 3.98 FIP) in 102 1/3 frames divided between the two teams.

Dereck Rodriguez, RHP, Giants:

Rodriguez came out of nowhere to serve as one of the most effective rookies in the sport two years, but the dreaded sophomore slump took him down last season. The 27-year-old split 2019 between the Giants’ rotation and bullpen, registering a woeful 5.64 ERA/5.69 FIP (he was at 2.81/3.74 in 2018) in 99 innings. Rodriguez underwhelmed in the strikeout/walk department along the way, putting up 6.45 K/9 with 3.27 BB/9, and lost about a mile per hour on his low-90s fastball. Whether he’ll work more as a starter or reliever is in question heading into the new season, whenever it begins.

Tony Watson, LHP, Giants:

The normally reliable Watson wasn’t quite himself in 2019, in which he tallied career worsts in ERA (4.17), FIP (4.81) and home runs per nine (1.5) through 54 innings. Watson walked just two per nine, and there were no dips in his velocity (93.5 mph) or swinging-strike percentage (12.7), yet he still slumped to the second-lowest K/9 (6.83) of his career. Surprisingly, same-handed hitters – whom he has usually contained – did the most damage against Watson, teeing off on him for a .391 wOBA. In other words, Watson turned the average lefty into Anthony Rizzo. The Giants are banking on a better showing from Watson in 2020, though, as they re-signed him for a $3MM guarantee during the winter.

Trevor Cahill, RHP, Giants:

Cahill is the fifth member of this Giants-heavy list, but this will be his first year with the club. He spent last year with the Angels, who signed him for $9MM after he revived his career with the Athletics as a starter during the previous season. However, Cahill couldn’t carry that renaissance into 2019; he instead spent the majority of the season in the bullpen and logged an ugly 5.98 ERA/6.13 FIP. Compared to 2018, Cahill struck out one fewer batter per nine (7.12 overall) and saw his groundball rate drop by almost 8 percent (45.9). He also yielded a whopping 2.2 homers per nine – up from a paltry .65 the prior season. Now, it remains to be seen whether Cahill will even crack the roster in San Francisco, which signed him to a minor league contract. If he does, it may be as a reliever.

Garrett Richards, RHP, Padres:

Richards has been quite valuable when he has taken the mound. The problem is that appearances from the oft-injured ex-Angel have been rare in recent seasons. He hasn’t even touched the 80-inning mark in a season since 2015, when he amassed a career-high 207 1/3. Richards totaled just 8 2/3 frames last season after returning from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in July 2018. Of course, the Padres knew they’d get little from Richards in 2019 upon signing him to a two-year, $15.5MM pact. They’re hoping the investment pays dividends this season.

Giants Sign Prospect Javier Alexander Francisco

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The Giants have signed shortstop Javier Alexander Francisco, a prospect from the Dominican Republic, as @GiantsProspects first reported (Twitter link; hat tip to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle). The value of the bonus is unknown at this time.

Shea notes that the 16-year-old has been working with former big leaguer Fernando Tatis Sr., who compares Francisco to his son, Padres star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. This comparison seems at least somewhat suspect, given the timing of this agreement. Many well-regarded international prospects have handshake deals worked out in advanced of their eligibility and then sign on the dotted line as soon as the signing period begins each year on July 2. Tatis Jr., for instance, signed with the White Sox on July 2, 2015, receiving a bonus of $700K. If Francisco is indeed at that skill level, he could have theoretically received a larger bonus by waiting another few months until teams would have their bonus pools reset to their full amounts.

Regardless of how Francisco develops personally, this move is consistent with a larger push in the Giants organization to focus on improving their farm system. Since Farhan Zaidi became the president of baseball operations in November of 2018, there has been a greater emphasis on upgrading the talent pipeline that flows into the major league club. Baseball America recently ranked the Giants farm system as the 14th best in the majors, after it checked in at 28th going into the 2019 season.

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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A transformative offseason for the Red Sox saw the club trade its franchise player, make an unexpected managerial change, and (perhaps most importantly in ownership’s view?) duck under the luxury tax threshold.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

When Alex Cora, Dave Dombrowski, Mookie Betts, and David Price were all taking turns hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy in October 2018, it would’ve seemed inconceivable that all four men would no longer be members of the Red Sox organization just 15 months later.  And yet, it didn’t take long for the Sox to go from a 108-win World Series champion to a team suddenly facing a lot of questions.

Dombrowski was the first to depart, let go in early September amidst some reports suggesting Red Sox ownership considered firing him even a year prior.  As surprising as Dombrowski’s ouster was, Cora’s quick fall from grace was even more of a shock.  After the league’s report on the Astros’ sign-stealing exploits during the 2017 season cited Cora (then the Astros’ bench coach) as a key author of how Houston’s system of video footage and trash can-banging was constructed, the Sox fired Cora before MLB could announce even what punishment the now-former Red Sox skipper would face.

Speaking of stolen signs, the Red Sox are still currently awaiting the results of Major League Baseball’s investigation into whether or not the Sox made inappropriate use of video footage to steal signs during their own World Series campaign in 2018.  While the Red Sox aren’t expected to be as punished as severely as the Astros were, it’s probably safe to assume that some type of penalty is forthcoming, perhaps in the form of a lost draft pick or two.

Needless to say, Chaim Bloom had a lot to deal with after being hired as Boston’s new chief baseball officer in late October.  Bloom was already deep into offseason business before having to deal with an unforeseen managerial change, which could be one reason why the Sox chose to promote from within by naming bench coach Ron Roenicke as the interim manager.  Roenicke is a safe choice but hardly a bad one, as he is a known figure to Boston’s roster and had success in his only prior big league managerial stint with the Brewers from 2011-15.  If the Sox play well in 2020, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Roenicke become a longer-term answer in Boston’s dugout.

As a longtime member of the Rays front office, Bloom’s first offseason in total control of a baseball operations department resulted in something of a Tampa Bay-esque winter for the Sox.  It was an offseason of mostly low-cost signings and acquisitions, while moving a pair of expensive players in a trade that was driven largely by financial motivations.

Let’s start with the biggest blockbuster of the entire offseason: the Betts/Price trade with the Dodgers. What began as a three-team deal involving the Twins turned into another Los Angeles/Boston blockbuster after the Sox took issue with the medical records of Minnesota prospect Brusdar Graterol, who was supposed to be the one of the young minor league centerpieces headed to Boston in the deal.  In the end, the three-team arrangement was broken down in to two separate deals, with Graterol ending up going to Los Angeles as part of the trade that sent Kenta Maeda to the Twins, and the Red Sox swinging a deal with the Dodgers that saw Betts, Price, and $48MM (covering half of Price’s contract) for three interesting young talents.

Jeter Downs immediately became the top prospect in Boston’s farm system and potential second baseman of the future, while catcher/infielder Connor Wong also gives the Red Sox a future option behind the plate or even as a multi-positional backup catcher.  Both of these youngsters could be on track for the big leagues as early as 2021, while outfielder Alex Verdugo is already coming off a strong performance (.294/.342/.475 in 377 PA) in 2019, his first extended stint against Major League pitching.  Verdugo is expected to take over for Betts in right field, perhaps as early as the new Opening Day, as the delayed start to the season will likely give him time to recover from a stress fracture in his lower back.

It’s not at all a bad prospect haul, yet it’s also one many Boston fans and media members found inconceivable, given that one of pro sports’ wealthiest franchises was surrendering one of the game’s best players in what seemed like more or less a salary dump.  Principal owner John Henry’s late-September statement that the 2020 Sox “need to be under” the Competitive Balance Tax threshold after two seasons of overages loomed large over each transaction Bloom made this winter, no matter how much Henry tried to downplay his original comments both before and after the Betts trade.  Boston’s luxury tax number now stands at just under $196MM, as per Roster Resource, below the $208MM luxury tax threshold and indeed putting the Red Sox in line to reset their tax bill to zero.

A third consecutive season of CBT overage would have cost the Sox a 50 percent tax on every dollar spent over the $208MM threshold, plus an additional 12 percent surtax if their luxury tax number stood within the secondary penalty range ($228MM-$248MM).  As well, the Red Sox would’ve received a 50 percent deduction in their cut of revenue-sharing rebates, as outlined by the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier.

As of mid-January, Boston’s luxury tax payroll stood at roughly $237.89MM, so that third-timer penalty rate wouldn’t have been an insignificant extra expenditure….yet considering the franchise’s vast resources, it’s also hard to consider it a truly significant expenditure either, considering the on-field value lost by removing Betts from the lineup.

With a bit more hindsight, the Sox could’ve given themselves more CBT breathing room had they non-tendered Jackie Bradley Jr. back in December, as their subsequent efforts to trade the center fielder ended up fruitless.  Perhaps the Red Sox could have re-signed Bradley for a lower amount than his $11MM salary, or perhaps just replaced him with Kevin Pillar (a comparable player) at a much lesser price.  An outfield of Betts, Pillar, and Andrew Benintendi clearly looks more imposing than Boston’s current alignment of Verdugo, Bradley, and Benintendi, with Pillar as the fourth outfielder.

From a pure baseball perspective, Boston’s argument for trading Betts was that it made more sense to deal him now rather than risk letting him leave in free agency for nothing (save a qualifying offer compensation pick) next winter, or perhaps dealing him for a lesser package closer to the trade deadline if the Red Sox were out of the playoff race.  But, ownership has maintained all along that they intend the Sox to be contenders in 2020, and trading Betts and Price runs counter to that notion.

Going back to the hypothetical scenario I floated earlier, let’s pretend the Red Sox kept Price and Betts, non-tendered Bradley, and still signed Pillar and Mitch Moreland.  Let’s also assume a few more dollars are spent here and there over the course of the season to bring Boston’s tax number to $245MM.  That works out to a three-timer CBT bill just shy of $21MM, plus the approximately $6MM in lost revenue-sharing rebate money as calculated in Speier’s piece.

In essence, that makes the decision to trade Betts and Price a $27MM choice in terms of immediate money, plus the Red Sox get the peace of mind of knowing that they’re under the threshold now rather than having to perhaps scramble next winter to avoid a fourth year of CBT payments.  Rafael Devers and Eduardo Rodriguez are due for big arbitration raises next offseason, which would’ve counteracted some of the savings from having Moreland, Pillar, Perez, Workman, and still-with-the-Red Sox Betts all coming off the books.  (Plus, J.D. Martinez also has another opt-out decision at season’s end, so he might not be part of the 2021 roster.)

Is saving $27MM worth a much more difficult path back to the postseason?  Even with Betts and Price, obviously the Red Sox would’ve still faced a stiff test from their AL East rivals, plus more competition from the American League as a whole for wild card positions.  But, had the Sox not been in contention by the deadline this year, they could’ve traded some contracts to duck under the luxury tax anyway — or, had until the end of the 2021 season to figure out ways to avoid paying a penalty for a fourth straight season.

The Reds, Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Padres were all reported to have interest in acquiring Price over the offseason, but since the Red Sox weren’t able to trade the left-hander (and enough of his $96MM contract) alone, they ultimately had to package Price together with Betts to finally swing a deal.  Figuring out a solo Price deal quite possibly could have kept Betts in a Sox uniform in 2020, though Price’s own departure has no small impact on Boston’s roster.

Martin Perez was signed prior to the Price trade, but he will essentially serve as a southpaw-for-southpaw replacement in the rotation.  Perez had a fairly hot start to his 2019 season with Minnesota but saw his productivity plummet beginning in late May.  As much as Bloom is optimistic about Perez’s untapped potential, the lefty has been a mid-rotation innings-eater even during the best of times during his eight MLB seasons.

While Price’s age and injury history also make him a question mark heading into 2020, his presence would’ve brought more stability to the pitching staff than the current mix.  Ostensible staff ace Chris Sale is battling elbow problems and could still potentially face some type of surgery, though he’s begun a throwing program, and the Sox are hoping the extra rest in the elongated offseason allows Sale time to heal without missing any games.  Rodriguez is coming off a strong year, but Nathan Eovaldi is coming off an injury-plagued season and a wide array of arms (or an opener) could end up filling that fifth rotation spot.  The newly-signed Collin McHugh is a bit of a wild card as a either a rotation or bullpen candidate, assuming McHugh (who was only cleared to throw in late February) is himself healthy after dealing with elbow injuries.

McHugh could ultimately make more of an impact to the relief corps, which didn’t get much attention despite an overall middle-of-the-road performance in 2019.  The Sox are hoping that a change in roles can help, as Brandon Workman’s emergence as the closer can add some clarity to the rest of the bullpen’s roles.  If openers do become a part of Boston’s rotation picture, there could be more mix-and-match than usual in the Red Sox pen, perhaps taking a page from how the Rays used their relievers under Bloom over the last couple of seasons.

Besides Price, the Red Sox said goodbye to another veteran starter this offseason when Rick Porcello signed a free agent contract with the Mets.  A pair of other recent roster staples also departed, as super-utilityman Brock Holt signed with the Brewers and backup catcher Sandy Leon was dealt to the Indians.  New signings Kevin Plawecki and Jonathan Lucroy are competing for the backup catching job, while Jose Peraza will now somewhat replace Holt as a multi-position asset.  For now, Boston plans to use Peraza mostly as a second baseman, splitting time with Michael Chavis whenever Chavis isn’t filling in for Moreland at first base against left-handed pitching.  However, Peraza has experience at short and in the outfield, so he could move around in the event of injuries elsewhere on the roster.

2020 Season Outlook

We’ve gone this deep into the offseason review without really mentioning the three biggest reasons why the Red Sox could still contend for a wild card berth — Devers, Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts, who form as tough of a 1-2-3 punch as any lineup trio in baseball.  That group of sluggers goes a long way towards propping up a lineup that has some uncertainty, but also a lot of potential in Christian Vazquez, Verdugo, Benintendi, Chavis, Peraza and Moreland.  Even pitching-wise, despite all the injury questions, the Sox certainly have talent on hand if Sale and Eovaldi can stay healthy and Rodriguez matches his 2019 form.

Simply running it back with Betts and Price on this roster would’ve been a perfectly respectable idea on paper, except that Red Sox ownership felt it was more prudent to take a step back to reload the farm system and take the opportunity to get what they felt was an untenable contract (Price) off the books.  Ideally, the Sox wouldn’t have had to trade Betts to make that work, though perhaps reading between the tea leaves, the club felt Betts wasn’t going to re-sign with with Boston anyway next winter, making him ultimately expendable as a trade chip rather than as a long-term asset.

It’s a tough pill to swallow for the Fenway faithful, who have a right to be annoyed that the same Red Sox ownership group who has okayed several big-money signings and extensions over the years now feel the “need to” (to use Henry’s words from September) enact some financial prudence, even if it meant trading Betts.  Time will tell if the decision ends up being wise, but the window of contention that looked so wide open after the 2018 season is now much narrower.

How would you grade the Red Sox offseason?  (Link for app users.)

Miles Mikolas Resumes Throwing

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Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas has resumed throwing after undergoing a platelet-rich plasma injection for a strained flexor tendon in his right arm last month, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Mikolas is currently limited to playing catch from 90 feet, but he’s upping the distance regularly and tells Hummel that he now expects to be able to contribute from day one of the regular season — whenever that is.

The forearm injury had previously wiped out any possibility of Mikolas being part of the active roster on the previously scheduled March 26 season opener, but that’s no longer the case. The right-hander had been eyeing a late April or early May return to the roster, and with Opening Day pushed back at least eight weeks, his rehab timeline should be complete before the season gets underway.

Penciling Mikolas into the starting rotation would force the Cardinals into a tough decision on the rest of the rotation. Jack Flaherty is a lock, of course, and former ace Carlos Martinez impressed early in spring as he built back up as a starter. Veteran Adam Wainwright is back on another one-year deal as well, and the Cards also have young righty Dakota Hudson and offseason pickup Kwang-Hyun Kim in the fold as well — the latter of whom turned in eye-opening results in the abbreviated first iteration of Spring Training. There’s ample depth even beyond that group, too. Right-handers Daniel Ponce de Leon and Jake Woodford are both on the 40-man roster, as are lefties Austin Gomber and Genesis Cabrera.

The Cards will surely file all that away in the “good problem to have” drawer if it pans out, but first and foremost will be monitoring Mikolas’ rehab efforts. He’s still only playing catch from flat ground, so he’ll need to progress to throwing off a mound, throwing his breaking pitches and eventually building up to a starter’s workload. Ideally, he’ll be in the mix to start one of the Cardinals’ first games of the season, but as already illustrated, the organization has plenty of depth in the event of a setback.

Mikolas is entering the first season of a four-year, $68MM extension that he inked last spring. He’s owed a $15.75MM salary in each season of the deal, plus the prorated portion of a $5MM signing bonus to be paid each January over the life of the deal.

Chris Sale Begins Throwing Program

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Red Sox ace Chris Sale has begun a throwing program at the team’s spring complex, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. It’s the first throwing action for the left-hander since he was diagnosed with a flexor strain earlier this month.

Sale’s health has been an ongoing point of discussion for upwards of 18 months in Boston. The southpaw spent two stints on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation late in the 2018 season, but the Sox were convinced of his health last spring when signing him to a five-year, $145MM contract extension. Concerns escalated when Sale experienced a dip in velocity early in the ’19 season and pitched to an alarming 6.30 ERA through the end of April.

However, Sale’s velocity trended back up, and over his next 15 starts, he looked like his vintage self: 93 2/3 innings of 3.27 ERA ball with a sensational 150-to-22 K/BB ratio. Three of his next four (and final four) starts of the season were clunkers, though, and Sale went on the shelf for the remainder of the season on Aug. 17.

Sale was cleared of ligament damage last August and underwent a platelet-rich plasma injection as well as a six-week period of rest and rehab. The lefty went through an offseason throwing program but was slowed by pneumonia early in camp before undergoing an MRI that revealed the flexor strain he’s currently battling. He’s been cleared of ligament damage, but Speier notes that surgery to repair the flexor issue remains a possibility if the throwing program doesn’t go well.

The Red Sox are paying Sale $30MM in 2020 — the first season of his front-loaded extension. The delayed start to the 2020 season could give him an opportunity to return to health prior to Opening Day (the date of which remains unclear) — an outcome that didn’t appear possible just weeks ago. That would be a substantial boost for the Red Sox, as their rotation behind the lefty is mired with question marks. Eduardo Rodriguez is presently projected to get the Opening Day nod. He’ll be followed by Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez and a yet-to-be-determined fourth and fifth starter. If Sale is healthy, the Sox would only need to fill one spot; Collin McHugh (who is also on the mend), Ryan Weber, Matt Hall, Kyle Hart and Mike Shawaryn are among the in-house options.

Video: The Best Extension Candidates For Each NL East Team

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Who is the best extension candidate for the Mets, Nationals, Braves, Marlins, and Phillies? Jeff Todd suggests the Polar Bear, Childish Bambino, and a few players you might not expect in today’s video.

Jump to a team:

  • Braves – 1:23
  • Marlins – 3:17
  • Mets – 4:57
  • Nationals – 7:07
  • Phillies – 9:36

Extension Candidates: NL Central

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We don’t really know whether or to what extent extension talks will continue during the coronavirus hiatus. But as I wrote yesterday, it seems reasonable to think they’ll be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.

While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).

In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. Here are some names to chew on from the NL Central …

Brewers

The Brew Crew already reached two deals this winter, both of which are quite interesting for very different reasons. The Milwaukee organization reached a big new extension (that still feels team-friendly) with superstar Christian Yelich. And it placed a upside bet on young hurler Freddy Peralta, whose ERA hasn’t quite yet matched his talent.

Scanning the rest of the roster, the name that jumps off the page is Josh Hader. True, he just lost an arbitration hearing to the team. But he’s still got a big $4.1MM starting point to build from for three more seasons and his salary could go wild if the Brewers keep him in the closer’s role. Perhaps there’s a path to a deal, even if it doesn’t expand the Brewers’ control rights past arbitration much (if at all).

Likelier, perhaps, are highly talented youngsters Keston Hiura and Brandon Woodruff. The former isn’t even close to arbitration but seems like an easy bet to keep hitting. The latter is a year away from Super Two qualification, so this might be the best opportunity to get him locked in at a palatable price. Given the aggressive stance the Brewers took in the Peralta deal, you can’t rule out negotiations with fellow hurlers Adrian Houser and Corbin Burnes.

Cardinals

The Cards are known to be interested in working something out with franchise pillar Yadier Molina. It’s pretty likely they’ll get a deal done at some point given the obvious mutual interest.

Of greater long-term intrigue is the situation of staff ace Jack Flaherty. But odds of an agreement seem long, particularly after the club renewed his contract at a rather meager rate this spring. Perhaps fellow starter Dakota Hudson is a likelier target. If the club gets creative in exploring deals with the staff, relievers Giovanny Gallegos and John Brebbia might be approached, though neither is terribly youthful.

Two years out from free agency, Kolten Wong is a conceivable but hardly pressing potential target. It’s more interesting to contemplate an early pact with emerging utilityman Tommy Edman. But most intriguing of all? A pre-debut pact with top prospect Dylan Carlson. That would free the club to promote him whenever it wishes and perhaps secure a potential new franchise star for his entire prime.

Cubs

If you can’t trade ’em, extend ’em? Perhaps not in all cases, but the Cubs have a lot of quality players that could be targeted for extensions — now that the team has elected not to deal them over the winter and likely won’t have a chance to revisit its decision in the middle of the 2020 season. Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Kyle Schwarber could in theory all fall in this bucket.

The likeliest candidate, though, is shortstop Javier Baez. He was never really on the block, so far as anyone knows, and there’s clearly mutual interest in a deal. Baez is two years from free agency but already well into bigger earnings via arbitration. Talks have been up and down thus far.

Otherwise, the Cubbies could explore ways of locking in lower prices on non-stars for the foreseeable future. What if — and believe me, this is a hypothetical — but what if the team saw some value in the right arrangement with a younger, less-established player? The most interesting possibilities: infielder Nico Hoerner, backstop Victor Caratini, and center fielder (for the time being, anyway) Ian Happ. Having already done a deal with David Bote, this sort of possibility can’t be ruled out.

Pirates

Thankfully, in this case the team has more or less provided its own list (through unnamed sources that spoke with reporters). Younger big leaguers Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman, and Joe Musgrove are all said to be of interest, as is top prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes. Now that we know talks have been initiated, it’s a matter of seeing if anything gets done.

Notably absent from that group? Slugging first baseman Josh Bell. The 27-year-old is in his first season of arbitration eligibility after a big 2019 season. The absence of reporting doesn’t necessarily mean that Bell isn’t of interest, though he may be a bit spendy for the Bucs to commit to.

Beyond that, it gets pretty speculative. The Pirates have big hopes for high-upside youngsters Mitch Keller and Oneil Cruz, but probably want to see them develop more before thinking about a long-term contract.

Reds

The Cincinnati ballclub has made a host of interesting moves of late. But there’s still potential for greater contractual action with regard to a few in-house players.

Excellent right-hander Luis Castillo is easily the top target. He’s in classic starting pitcher extension territory as a 2+ service-class player with two full seasons of increasingly productive moundwork. The team can surely envision quite a lot of upside and he has some real incentive to dodge the risk of another MLB campaign before getting paid.

Perhaps there’s also an argument for considering talks with lefty Amir Garrett or reliever/pinch-hitter/CF Michael Lorenzen. If teams can strike deals with pitchers like Peralta and Aaron Bummer, then these guys can’t be ruled out.

It’s awfully intriguing to think about a deal for everywhere-but-nowhere man Nick Senzel. But his precise place in this organization has yet to be determined. While the team would probably buy in at the right price, he’s probably not going to sell himself short and buy into an uncertain situation. There are a few other conceivable candidates on this roster — outfielder Jesse Winker; starter Anthony DeSclafani — but it’s quite a bit harder to see a path to a mutually agreeable deal in those cases.

Connor Joe Undergoes Surgery For Testicular Cancer

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Dodgers outfielder Connor Joe announced that he has undergone surgery after being diagnosed with testicular cancer. MLBTR extends its best wishes to him for a swift and complete recovery.

Joe, now 27, spent a brief stretch in the big leagues last year with the Giants. He was taken in the Rule 5 draft by the Reds and eventually traded on to the San Francisco organization. Joe logged his first big league hit with the Giants but struggled in eight games before being sent back to the Dodgers.

Despite that messy start, Joe had a rather nice 2019 season. He turned in an even .300 batting average and hefty .426 on-base percentage in 446 plate appearances at Triple-A. Joe doesn’t have a ton of power by the standards of the offensively charged PCL, but did pop 15 home runs on the year.

Latest On Orioles-Nationals MASN Television Dispute

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The television rights fee battle between the Orioles and Nationals is still generally on track for potential resolution — at least, in significant part. But the ever-expanding saga has grown so massive that it now comes with a range of complications. Its ultimate outcome will ultimately carry widespread implications, especially in the D.C.-Baltimore region.

Dan Connolly and Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic (subscription link) recently examined the underlying dispute and its more recent developments. It’s a worthwhile overview of a contentious issue that has turned an acronym for the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network into the name of a monster with a mind of its own: The MASN Dispute.

To be clear, there really isn’t a new development on the legal or the negotiation front. The teams are still at an apparent standstill while they await the outcome of the latest round of litigation.

In terms of the convoluted legal roadmap, it’s best to focus on where things are now rather than looking back … to the extent that’s possible. Last summer, a court upheld an arbitration award in the Nationals’ favor. That judicial decision is presently being appealed. If it’s not upheld, we’re back to square one. If it is upheld, in theory, the initial dispute will in large part be resolved.

Unfortunately, there’s quite a bit more to the situation. The Orioles have injected new legal claims and even launched a separate arbitration proceeding. The initial five-year TV rights fee period has already passed, so even as it remains under dispute there’s another one to consider. And as Connolly and Ghiroli write, there are other complications: tens of millions in legal fees and costs that continue to pile up; the need for the Nats to repay the league a $25MM loan; and a need to recalculate and distribute back revenue-sharing payments from the D.C. organization.

The aforementioned post documents the genesis of the dispute and its connection to the fortunes of these two organizations. The O’s benefited from a near-term cash injection as they controlled MASN and broadcast Nats games at a bargain rate. But the long-term concerns that the Baltimore organization raised at the outset seem largely to be coming to fruition. The Nationals are turning in a consistently competitive product and just captured the 2019 World Series, creating a rosy outlook for drawing new fans from the broader capital region. Meanwhile, the O’s are gasping for air after going all out to take advantage of those aforementioned competitive years, trotting out a low-grade roster and seeing franchise-low attendance figures.

The major question remains whether the two clubs can both thrive at the same time in the same geographic region. They both drew well in successful 2014 seasons, but has the balance shifted south? Connolly and Ghiroli discuss the recent downturn in the fortunes of the Orioles and concerns about the team’s profitability should the Nationals receive a full market rate for their TV rights. There’s no indication at the moment that the O’s are in financial trouble or can’t operate just fine in Baltimore, but the organization’s long-term outlook isn’t clear — particularly with the Nats’ draw creeping northward.

This surely isn’t a zero-sum game; the teams play in separate leagues and could in theory benefit from a friendly rivalry. Cooperation between these teams seems like the best path to mutual success. Orioles owner Peter Angelos and Nationals owner Ted Lerner have handed the operations of their respective franchises off to their sons, which presents some hypothetical opportunity to set aside personal misgivings. But we haven’t seen evwidence of a detente just yet. A return to competitive baseball from the Orioles would obviously help. Baltimore GM Mike Elias says he sees the D.C. organization as a model to follow in building back up the roster.

So … how to sum things up? There’s reason to expect some clear decision points from the courts that will bind both parties. And there are some conceivable pathways to a “more business-like way” of determining rights fees in the future (to reference the words of commissioner Rob Manfred). But it remains largely unclear precisely when and how these ever-broadening relationship problems will be resolved.

 

Joey Wentz Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Tigers lefty Joey Wentz has undergone Tommy John surgery, according to a team announcement. He’s expected to be sidelined for 14 to 16 months, the team provides.

Wentz was the 40th overall pick of the 2016 draft. He came to the Detroit organization last summer, along with outfielder Travis Demeritte, in the deal that sent reliever Shane Greene to the Braves.

This decision didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, as Wentz had dealt with forearm issues this spring. But the 22-year-old had gone back on the mound recently in hopes of moving past the health problems and preparing for the season.

Just what precipitated the decision on a surgical approach isn’t know. It’s certainly possible that Wentz suffered a setback or that the decision tipped towards an invasive procedure given the delay of the 2020 campaign.

Regardless, it’s now clear that Wentz won’t take the mound again for competitive action until the middle of the 2021 season. The Tigers won’t have any 40-man roster issues to worry about for the 2020 season, as Wentz wasn’t yet on it. But he would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this coming winter if he isn’t protected.

 

It’s unfortunate timing for Wentz, who trended up after last summer’s swap. In his five Double-A outings with the Tigers organization, he spun 25 2/3 innings of 2.10 ERA ball while racking up an impressive 37:4 K/BB ratio.

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