The Yankees made the biggest splash of the free-agent market this past winter when they signed right-handed ace Gerrit Cole to a nine-year, $324MM contract. Under normal circumstances, Cole would have already picked up a few starts as a Yankee, but he may not pitch at all in 2020 as we navigate through a coronavirus-caused hellscape. No matter what, he’ll be a Yankee for a long time, but their rotation will nonetheless face a significant amount of uncertainty heading into the next free-agent period.
If a season does take place this year, the Yankees plan to have Cole fronting a starting staff also made up of righty Masahiro Tanaka and a trio of lefties consisting of James Paxton, J.A. Happ and Jordan Montgomery. Except Cole and Montgomery, everybody there could hit the open market during the upcoming winter.
As of now, would the Yankees want to keep Paxton, Tanaka or Happ going forward? At least in the first two cases, it’s hard to believe they wouldn’t show at least some interest. The club sent a noteworthy package to Seattle in November 2018 to acquire the hard-throwing Paxton, who put up appealing results during his New York debut last year. Problem is that a lack of durability has been an all-too-common problem for Paxton, who has only maxed out at 160 1/3 innings in a single season so far (he underwent back surgery in February). His age (32 in November 2020) could also be cause for wariness.
Tanaka, also 32 in November, has generally delivered since the Yankees signed him out of Japan to a seven-year, $155MM guarantee in 2014. With that said, Tanaka’s regular-season ERA has been closer to 5.00 than 3.00 twice in the past three seasons. You also have to wonder about his health, as Tanaka has been pitching with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow for the majority of his career. So, is that someone the Yankees want to gamble on for a second contract – one that’s sure to be fairly lucrative?
Unlike Paxton and Tanaka, Happ’s not in position to stick around for the long haul. He’ll be in his age-38 season come 2021 and was a disappointment last season, the first of a two-year, $34MM deal with the Yankees. However, it’s worth noting that the Yankees threw a $17MM vesting option for 2021 into that agreement. The original stipulation was that Happ would have to toss 165 innings or pile up at least 27 starts this year for that salary to become guaranteed, though it’s unclear how that situation will pan out during a truncated or canceled season.
Fortunately for the Yankees, one of their most pitchers should be back from injury sometime in 2021. Righty Luis Severino underwent Tommy John surgery in February, though if his all goes well, he ought to be on track to return by either spring or early summer next year. You can pencil him in for some innings after Cole, then. Montgomery, assuming he returns to his previously solid form after the TJS he had in June 2018, could also occupy a spot in a group devoid of Tanaka, Paxton and Happ. Moreover, the Yankees have a few other interesting in-house options who are either in the majors or close to it in Jonathan Loaisiga, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, Mike King and Albert Abreu. Loaisiga’s the lone hurler there with real MLB experience, though; plus, it’s fair to question if the Yankees would be willing to count on anyone else there from the outset of 2021 because their development would be stunted to some degree by a shortened or canceled minor league campaign.
Of course, as they’re wont to do, the Yankees could try to spend their way out of this predicament next offseason. That said, there aren’t any surefire aces on a collision course with free agency. No Coles, no Strasburgs. That’s not to say the next market will be empty of helpful hurlers, however.
Along with Paxton and Tanaka, you’re looking at the likes of Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, Mike Minor, Jake Odorizzi, Marcus Stroman and Jose Quintana at or near the top of the list. Bauer seems to have the highest upside, evidenced by the otherworldly numbers he logged as recently as 2018, but his production fell last season and there’s some serious tension between him and Cole dating from their days as teammates at UCLA. Meanwhile, if you go back in the MLBTR archives, you’ll see that the Yankees have shown past interest in Ray and Minor. Stroman has apparently not impressed the team that much, though, as general manager Brian Cashman suggested in September. But there’s at least some familiarity with Quintana, once a Yankees farmhand whom they let go after 2011.
In addition to monitoring free agency, New York’s likely to give the trade market a look. It’s harder to predict who could end up available via that route, but Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco (Indians), Matthew Boyd (Tigers), Danny Duffy (Royals), Jon Gray (Rockies), and Chris Archer (Pirates) could be among those who catch the Yankees’ attention.
Regardless of how the coming months turn out for the Yankees and the rest of MLB in general, the team will be in for an intriguing winter when it rolls around. The Yankees won’t be making a second straight Cole-type signing in their rotation at that point, but at least one more notable starting addition could be in the cards.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
How do vesting options work for 2021? Clearly, Happ won’t get the 165 innings he needs for this option to vest.
I didn’t even think of that. The Covid Negotiations might put CBA talks to shame…
I think if there was an answer to that, it would have been included in the article.
There probably won’t be a sure answer to that until there is an answer to whether the 2020 season will be played or not. Regardless though, there’s no way Happ will reach those innings in a shortened season. My guess is, the contract language says if he pitches that many innings, the 2021 option will vest. If not, no matter the reason, it will not. It doesn’t matter why, he didn’t pitch the required amount of innings, so he doesn’t get the option and he will become a free agent.
Especially since every player will be getting one year of service time as if they did play the 2020 season, I would think Happ is just one of the unlucky ones where that year of service time will hurt him more than help him. But, again, we won’t know for sure until after we get an answer on whether or not there will be a 2020 season. There may be some different contract language for options like this going forward, but I see this as, he didn’t pitch the innings, so the option doesn’t vest. Doesn’t matter why.
Negotiations TBD…..
Love to get Clevinger…
Cole and Clevinger as 1&2 would b down right nasty.
Never know who will make the leap like Cole did. Two years ago, he wasn’t a 300 million pitcher. My bet is it will be Clevinger or Ray. The Yankees should target one of those guys, especially now that so many team owners are probably worried about finances in the short term.
The Evil Empire has a glutton of pitching. Even if they don’t pitch this yr they are all set, n will be fun to watch since the RS will not be, so I can still follow a team. Cashman has been amazing getting the quality he has.
I applied to write for MLBTradeRumors awhile back for the same reason we all read it: I absolutely love baseball. On top of that, I love to write. Can somebody tell Connor Byrne to read his articles over before submitting them? A piece chalk full of grammatical errors runs counter to the high standards of this site. MLBTradeRumors is awesome, surely they’re better than this. Why are you in such a rush Connor? There’s NO baseball being played. We can afford to wait another 10 minutes for you to produce a well-written piece. We all love this sport and are more than capable of talking our heads off about it. If this is the standard then make me the CEO! That all said, the contents are interesting, as always. Just… writing 101, read your piece aloud to yourself so you can catch the mistakes before you submit them. Edit them now once you do. Thanks.
“chock full” (sorry)
Lmao fair enough. I appreciate you.
LOL take a few minutes to read over your post.
There is no rush…..
The irony is certainly not lost on me lol
Sorry homie, bur Steve Adams has been a garbage writer for this site for around a decade at this point. If they’re not going to can a guy for poor writing style and an obvious loss of love for the game, they’re certainly not going to can a guy for spelling errors.
That certainly doesn’t mean you shouldn’t keep trying though! I hope you can replace Steve Adams one day, because he is absolute trash.
You’re totally right. We can still keep at it though. A love of the game is priority number one.
Thanks for the decade of reading!
The guru with the bad haircut comes down off the mountain and SPEAKS!
We are blessed…..
I’m sure if you write a hefty check that doesn’t bounce you could become CEO.
rp830 isn’t salty at all about not getting that job..
I’ll speak for the silent (overwhelming) majority who doesn’t really care about small typos in posts. The content is great. Thank you to the actual writers, I’m sorry that you have to deal with pedants
I do wish I had a job writing baseball during the pandemic, what a great way to pass the hours by indoors. But evidently I can’t practice what I preach lol. Content is great like I said, but even a slight review process would be appreciated and it’s not insane to hold the site to a bare minimum standard…
“a while” not “awhile”
You need to proof read these articles
How do you write this article and fail to mention Domingo German among the Yankees stable of pitchers?
I am a huge fan of this site but this is very shoddy work to ignore a prominent member of the team’s staff like German.
I agree.. german wasn’t even mentioned.
I’m the last one to correct someones grammar… but good god that was hard to read.
Tanaka feels like a guy who will be a Yankee for the rest of his career. He’ll be treated like guys like CC, Pettitte, Kuroda, as the veteran presence they can trust with the ball every 5 days. I also think the Yankees re up with Paxton to a deal similar to what Happ is getting (around $17-20 million a year for 2-3 seasons).
Tanaka will always be a NYY.
I agree on Tanaka but some team will throw lots of money at Paxton betting on how good he is instead of how fragile he is.
Expect Tanaka and Monty to return give Happ the boot and don’t look back. Paxton is tricky to think about. Cuz he’s a very good pitcher when healthy. But he rarely is. If he isn’t asking for stupid money bring him back. When it comes to FA’s Bauer is worth it of course. And maybe Odorizzi. When it comes to trades set your eyes on one man and one man only. Mike Clevinger. Dude is an absolute animal and has filthy stuff.
1.Cole
2.Clevinger
3.Tanaka
4.Pax
5.German/Monty/Garcia/Schmidt
Nobody would be able to compare to that not even close. But it’ll be interesting to see how the Yanks go into this next few Free Agency years after backing up the bank truck for Gerrit lol. I know this about pitching but Yankees offseason s coming up need to be focused on extending our core guys and have to keep DJ. So that’s my thoughts.
So no Severino?
I was making the point as like start of season. Sevy won’t be ready by start of year. Nobody knows when he will be healthy.
The asking price for Clevinger is “crazy high.” The Indians wanted Adell, the #5 prospect in baseball, plus more from the Angels for Clevinger. From the Yankees? They will want Dominguez, the #54 prospect in baseball, plus, plus. I don’t see that happening.
They will prolly want Devi Garcia as well
Get clevinger. 100%
There are A LOT of errors in this article Connor. Give me just one read through before publishing if no one is going to edit
Late night, had a few beverages, pets won’t sleep or go when they’re supposed to, cabin fever, delivery person (on the front lines, risking their life) messed up order,
no real baseball news.
Give the guy a break!
The Indians will be highly motivated to shed Carlos Carrasco’s salary with the shortened season. Paul Dolan isn’t going to be able to afford to feed his family if baseball doesn’t get underway soon!
If all 3 Yankees starters (Tanaka, Paxton & Happ) do become FA’s at the end of the 2020 season the Yankees could make all 3 QO’s of around $17M which with their injury history or injury potential (Tanaka) might make them less appealing to other teams. It also might make those players more inclined to accept a 1 year QO. I’m pretty sure the Yankees will at the very least make Tanaka & Paxton QO’s. Happ is probably more of a question mark, but it’s also very possible he doesn’t become a FA at all.
All three might take that QO just to build up value after this year. Many teams will be afraid of investing high dollars for multiple years on any of these three.
Like to see a Yanks rotation of Cole, Bauer, Paxton, Sevy, and German/Monty
Let’s see how long Cole will last as an ace. Very hard to put up numbers as good as he has for 5 years straight. Only a few pitchers can be that good for that long.
I hope Schmidt gets a good shot. That kid is down right nasty and I think he could develop into a great starter
I think both Tanaka & Paxton both walk, I could see Tanaka in LA with Ohtani.
That sounds as silly as “I can see Happ in LA with Trout.” :P
Nah, Tanaka is loved by the organization and he loves the Yankees, so much so he didn’t opt out of his contract a couple of years ago coming of one of the most dominant post season stretch of all time. He’s basically the new CC in the rotation.
Tanaka didn’t care to join former teammate Iwakuma in Seattle, so Ohtani makes zero impact in his decision
You did not mention Garrett Richards of the Padres. Had TJ last year and is now ready in 2020. He is a beast and best in class with spin rate and velo. He is a huge opportunity and whoever signs him will be rewarded.
Richards stinks. Let the Padres keep him.
He was on the verge of winning the cy young in 2014 before his injury. If could ever get back to that form. He would be a steal
I know. I just don’t want everyone else to know because I want the Padres to keep him.
Let all 3 of them walk. Tanaka is a TJ surgery waiting to happen. It’s a miracle Yanks made it this far with him. Paxton has never pitched more than 160 innings in a season before. And Happ, although I think he’ll bounce back this year, is just going to be too old next year for a contender to rely upon. Yanks should sign and/or trade for 2 younger replacements in the rotation to go with Cole , Severino, and Monty.