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Archives for November 2020

Hoyer On Cubs’ GM Search, Roster Construction, Coaching Staff

By Steve Adams | November 23, 2020 at 4:03pm CDT

The Cubs formally introduced longtime general manager Jed Hoyer as their president of baseball operations via press conference on Monday, not long after announcing that he’d signed a five-year deal through the 2025 season. (Fans can re-watch the entire press conference on Twitter.) Hoyer’s promotion maintained some continuity among the club’s decision-makers, but it also created a hole in the front office infrastructure, as the team did not promote a replacement GM to take on his former duties.

While Hoyer’s very promotion speaks to trusting the in-house group, however, he revealed that his expectation is to hire a general manager from outside the organization rather than to promote from within. The 46-year-old spoke of valuing new ideas, new input and new ways of thinking to help keep things fresh. The timing of any such hire, however, remains unclear. Hoyer acknowledged that there’d likely be an announcement in the coming days of some in-house promotions, but he merely said he planned to conduct a search for his new GM and wouldn’t further delve into specifics as to when the process would commence or draw to a close.

Unsurprisingly, Hoyer was asked frequently about the status of the team’s arbitration-eligible players and the payroll flexibility (or lack thereof) that he expects to have as he looks to put together next year’s roster. Asked specifically about the possibility of non-tendering or trading Kris Bryant, Hoyer declined to answer, instead speaking more broadly about the service-time-driven realities that he and the rest of the front office will have to face this winter.

While the newly minted president of baseball ops didn’t mention specific names, the obvious inference is that each of Bryant, Javier Baez and Kyle Schwarber possesses five-plus years of service time, thus placing them on track to become free agents next winter. Bryant ($18.6MM), Baez ($10.7MM and Schwarber ($7.9MM) all possess rather sizable projected arbitration salaries — a particularly tricky scenario for Hoyer & Co. to navigate given Bryant’s poor showing at the plate in 2020. There’s already been plenty of rumors surrounding a possible trade of Bryant — as has has been the case for the better part of two years — and the fact that Hoyer was even asked about the idea of non-tendering the former NL MVP speaks to the difficulty of the team’s looming decision.

Of course, for as much talk as there’s been of trading Bryant, there’s been as much or more talk about extending Baez. Any efforts on that front — or with regard to Bryant, Schwarber, Willson Contreras or any other Cubs player — seem to be on hold for the time being. Hoyer plainly acknowledge that there are no ongoing extension talks at this time, although he did add that there are “players on this roster that we’d love to have here for a long time.”

All of the uncertainty surrounding not only the Cubs arb-eligible regulars but even some of the team’s pitching — Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks have both been speculated upon as trade candidates — will lead onlookers to wonder about the possibility of a rebuild, but owner Tom Ricketts suggested otherwise. “I don’t think anyone is tearing anything down,” he said.

Hoyer, however, conceded that given the service time of some Cubs stalwarts, he might have one eye on the future a bit more than in other offseasons. He also indicated that he believes the Cubs should be able to field a playoff-caliber roster on a yearly basis, citing a goal of winning the division in 2021. Clearly, the upcoming offseason will be a bit of a balancing act, although that’s been apparent for some time now.

Just as predecessor Theo Epstein did prior to stepping down, Hoyer suggested that “the offense will look different next year.” The paths that the Cubs can take to realize that change are of course countless, and there are elements that are out of their control that still need to be factored into the equation. Notably, the Cubs and other National League teams are still uncertain as to whether there will be a designated hitter in the National League for the 2021 season. To this point, Hoyer said, it’s not clear when a firm resolution on that potential change will be in place.

As for just what sort of resources he’ll have at his disposal while striving to meet that goal in 2021, it’s not yet clear. Ricketts acknowledged that uncertainty regarding what levels of fan attendance would be permissible in 2021 have clouded the team’s budgetary outlook. Wrigley Field was recently granted National Historic Landmark status, as covered by Fran Spielman of the Chicago Sun-Times, but Ricketts indicated that the associated federal tax credits won’t have an impact on player payroll.

It’s worth highlighting, too, that the Cubs have work to beyond the roster and the front office. Will Venable’s hiring as the Red Sox’ new bench coach leaves a gap on the Chicago coaching staff. Hoyer said he’ll begin a search in the near future to fill Venable’s role as a base coach and outfield instructor. The organization’s decision to part ways with assistant hitting coach Terrmel Sledge left another vacancy, but they’ll stay in house to fill that void. Former big league infielder Chris Valaika, who has spent the past couple seasons as the Cubs’ minor league hitting coordinator, will join the Major League staff and take over Sledge’s prior role.

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Chicago Cubs Chris Valaika Kris Bryant

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Indians Name DeMarlo Hale Bench Coach

By Steve Adams | November 23, 2020 at 1:23pm CDT

The Indians announced Monday that they’ve hired DeMarlo Hale as their new bench coach.

A veteran of 15 seasons as a member of a Major League coaching staff, the 56-year-old Hale goes way back with Cleveland skipper Terry Francona. Hale served as both a base coach and bench coach under Francona while serving as a member of the Boston staff from 2006-11. He was the Red Sox’ third base coach for their World Series win in 2007.

Hale spent this past season as the Braves’ first base coach, taking over that post when Eric Young Sr. opted out of the 2020 season. Hale had initially been hired as a special assistant by general manager Alex Anthopoulos, whom he knew well from his days as a bench coach in Toronto during Anthopoulos’ tenure there.

The Indians announced on Oct. 31 that longtime bench coach Brad Mills wouldn’t return to that role in 2021. Mills, who opted out of the 2020 season, is being reassigned to a yet-undetermined role elsewhere in the organization. He’d been Cleveland’s bench coach since 2014 and had been a member of the coaching staff dating back to 2012.

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Atlanta Braves Cleveland Guardians DeMarlo Hale

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Marcell Ozuna Switches Agencies

By Mark Polishuk and Steve Adams | November 23, 2020 at 12:50pm CDT

Nov. 23: Ozuna’s decision stemmed from frustration over a lack of early offers received, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Now-former agent Melvin Roman was expecting the Braves to make their first multi-year proposal in December, per Rosenthal, but no team had submitted a formal offer to this point.

If timing was indeed the root of the issue for Ozuna, it’s worth wondering whether his new agents will push for a quick end to his free agency. Ozuna, after all, lingered on the market into late January last year. While we often lose sight of the human elements of free agency, it’s surely a stressful process to wait for offers to pour in while seeing your peers sign contracts. Not knowing where you and your family will be residing during the upcoming season is undoubtedly nerve-wracking. It would be wholly understandable if Ozuna had zero interest in a second consecutive winter of prolonging his decision into the New Year.

Of course, whether that’s the best course of action is debatable. Earlier deals have a tendency to be strong ones for the player, but there’s still some uncertainty as to whether the designated hitter will be in place in the National League next year. That uncertainty will reportedly prompt Nelson Cruz to wait for clarity, and Ozuna’s market would similarly be enhanced by the implementation of a universal DH in 2021.

Nov. 22: Outfielder Marcell Ozuna has changed his representation for his latest trip through the free agent market, as Ozuna is now represented by CAA Sports.  The agency announced the news on its Twitter feed.

We’ve already heard of widespread interest in Ozuna in free agency, with the Braves and Mets cited as just two of many teams checking in on the slugger’s services.  Naturally, it isn’t any surprise that Ozuna is generating such buzz in the wake of an outstanding season that saw him finish sixth in NL MVP voting.  Ozuna hit .338/.431/.636 over 267 plate appearances with the Braves in 2020, topping the National League in home runs (18), RBI (56) and total bases (145).

Though 2020 was a shortened season, Ozuna will head into free agency on the heels of a much better platform year than he did last winter.  He posted solid (.241/.328/.472, 29 homers in 549 PA) but not top-tier numbers with the Cardinals in 2019, and also was attached to draft pick compensation after rejecting the Cards’ qualifying offer.  Ozuna chose to bet on himself in the form of a one-year, $18MM deal with Atlanta rather than accept other multi-year offers that were on the table — a decision that now looks pretty wise in the wake of his big 2020 campaign.  MLBTR projects Ozuna to land a four-year, $72MM contract this offseason, ranking him fourth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.

CAA represents enough players on enough teams that is difficult to gauge whether Ozuna’s agency change could hint at his next landing spot.  For what it’s worth, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos completed a notable free agent deal with a CAA client just a year ago, when Atlanta inked left-hander Will Smith to a three-year, $40MM pact.

For all more info on player representation, check out MLBTR’s Agency Database for an extensive listing.

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Uncategorized Marcell Ozuna

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Cubs, Jed Hoyer Agree To Five-Year Contract

By Steve Adams | November 23, 2020 at 12:05pm CDT

The Cubs have signed new president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to a five-year contract that runs through the 2025 season, per a team announcement. Hoyer, the team’s longtime general manager, was promoted to his new post last week when Theo Epstein stepped away from the role.

Jed Hoyer | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

A new contract for Hoyer doesn’t register as much of a surprise. While he was only promoted to this new post last week, he was entering the final season of a five-year contract as the team’s general manager. There’d be little sense in promoting Hoyer to the top of the baseball operations food chain but leaving him on a one-year deal and having him enter the 2021 season under lame-duck status.

Promoting Hoyer, as owner Tom Ricketts put it last week, offered the organization a “combination of continuity and a fresh perspective that will serve us well as we look forward to another period of sustained success.” That comment certainly indicated that the club planned for Hoyer to be at the helm for the long term, and today’s contract extension solidifies the matter.

“Jed was a key baseball operations leader as we built a team that made the playoffs five of the last six years and won the World Series,” Ricketts said Monday in a new statement announcing the extension. “My family and I believe he is going to be an incredible baseball operations president, and Cubs fans have one of the best in the business leading the team to continue our commitment to sustained success.”

Notably, this won’t be Hoyer’s first time heading up a baseball operations department. He served as the Padres’ general manager from 2009-11 before being hired by Epstein, his former colleague with the Red Sox, to hold that same post within the Cubs organization. Epstein, Hoyer and current Cubs senior vice president of player personnel Jason McLeod all came up through the ranks together in Boston and have all played integral roles in the Cubs’ rise to a perennial playoff contender in recent years.

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Chicago Cubs Newsstand Jed Hoyer

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Michael Wacha Generating Interest Despite Down Year

By Steve Adams | November 23, 2020 at 11:15am CDT

Michael Wacha’s time with the Mets didn’t go at all as the team had hoped when signing him to a one-year, $3MM deal last winter, but ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that despite a season of lackluster results, Wacha is “among the most popular” free-agent starters on the market at the moment. The vast majority of clubs in the league are looking to cut back costs, and Wacha’s track record with the Cardinals, age and likely one-year price point all seemingly work in his favor.

The 29-year-old righty appeared in eight games (seven starts) for the Mets in 2020 and was rocked for a 6.52 ERA with an alarming nine long balls served up in that time. That marked a second straight rough season for Wacha, who logged a 4.76 ERA in 2019 and finished out that season with shoulder troubles — a problem that he’d also battled in the past.

Many will look at a pitcher with a 5.15 ERA over his past two seasons/160 frames and wonder why he’d generate interest, although today’s front offices place dwindling levels of stock in the game’s conventional and more rudimentary means of evaluating performance. Olney notes that an uptick in velocity has contributed to the interest. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, who also suggests interest in Wacha is strong, writes that increased usage of his cutter has piqued the interest of teams around the league (15.5 percent in 2019; 27.1 percent in 2020, per Statcast).

Those seemingly encouraging trends should be accompanied by some caveats, though. Wacha’s velocity jump wasn’t particularly substantial, as he averaged 93 mph on his four-seamer in 2019, per Statcast, and 93.6 mph in 2020. That 93.6 mph mark still falls well shy of the 95.1 mph Wacha averaged in 2017 (his peak velocity season) and the 94.8 mph he averaged in 2015 (arguably the best season of his career). His increased cutter usage came at the expense of a curveball which was a woefully ineffective pitch for him in 2019. However, the cutter was still hit hard by opponents and the curveball was a very effective offering as recently as 2017 (and to a lesser extent in 2018).

None of that is to say that there’s no reason to expect improvement from Wacha moving forward. Last year’s 19.2 K-BB% was the best of his career, and Wacha has never induced swinging-strikes and generated chases outside the strike zone at a higher rate than in 2020. He gave up too much hard contact in the air — hence the nine homers — but the right-hander was among the game’s best at inducing weak contact on the ground (81.9 mph average exit velocity).

Properly evaluating a pitcher is always a tall order — and that’s particularly true when looking at an eight-game sample from a pandemic-shortened season. Wacha won’t turn 30 until next July. That, paired with some of the trend lines he demonstrated in 2020, could land him a decent guarantee from a club seeking a bargain rotation play with some upside. If all goes well for him in ’21, Wacha could hit the market again as a 30-year-old free agent in a much better position than he currently finds himself.

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Uncategorized Michael Wacha

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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

By Mark Polishuk | November 23, 2020 at 8:59am CDT

Thanks to the expanded postseason format, the Brewers were a playoff team in 2020, despite a 29-31 record and a lack of offensive production.  The club now heads into the winter looking to answer a lot of questions throughout the lineup.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $205MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of $20MM mutual option for 2029)
  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $35MM through 2022
  • Freddy Peralta, RP: $13.75MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2025; deal also contains $8MM club option for 2026)
  • Avisail Garcia, OF: $12.5MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $12MM club/mutual option for 2022, though buyout value could vary)
  • Josh Lindblom, SP: $5.5MM through 2022
  • Brent Suter, RP: $1.5MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

  • Orlando Arcia – $2.8MM
  • Alex Claudio – $2.0MM
  • Ben Gamel – $1.7MM
  • Josh Hader – $5.1MM
  • Corey Knebel – $5.125MM
  • Omar Narvaez – $2.9MM
  • Jace Peterson – $700K
  • Manny Pina – $2.0MM
  • Dan Vogelbach – $1.4MM
  • Brandon Woodruff – $2.3MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Arcia, Claudio, Gamel, Knebel, Narvaez, Peterson, Vogelbach

Option Decisions

  • Ryan Braun, OF: $15MM mutual option was declined by Brewers, Braun received $4MM buyout
  • Jedd Gyorko, IF: $4.5MM club option was declined, Gyorko received $1MM buyout
  • Eric Sogard, IF: $4.5MM club option was declined, Sogard received $500K buyout
  • Ben Gamel, OF: $2.55MM club option was declined

Free Agents

  • Braun, Gyorko, Sogard, Brett Anderson, Ryon Healy, Shelby Miller

Looking to build on postseason appearances in both 2018 and 2019, the Brewers made a number of short-term, relatively inexpensive signings last winter to reinforce the roster after Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas departed in free agency.  It was a sound plan on paper and, overall, it worked considering that the Brew Crew again reached the playoffs.

The issue with such a strategy, however, is that the Brewers are now facing another reload on the open market.  Obviously the Brewers couldn’t have foreseen last winter that their already fairly tight payroll situation would impacted by a season of major revenue losses, but their budget figures to be even tighter in 2021.  It doesn’t seem likely that the team will match its (pre-adjusted schedule) 2020 payroll of roughly $97.5MM.

Between their roughly $47.5MM of guaranteed contracts, the above arbitration projections and a handful of pre-arbitration salaries to round out the roster, Milwaukee is looking at nearly $81MM in projected payroll.  It remains to be seen how much money president of baseball operations David Stearns will have at his disposal for new additions.  On the plus side, Stearns has shown himself to be adept at finding low-cost gems in trades or free agency, so this will be nothing new for him.  More funds could be freed up in the form of non-tenders, as the Brewers could reasonably part ways with more than half of their 10-player arbitration class.

Cutting ties with Omar Narvaez would leave the Brew Crew without their starting catcher, yet Narvaez had such a tough offensive season that the team may decide he isn’t worth the investment.  Jace Peterson, Alex Claudio, and (especially) Daniel Vogelbach were all pretty productive in limited action with Milwaukee last season, but since lots of similar players are expected to be available in a flooded non-tender market, the Brewers could look for cheaper options elsewhere.  Corey Knebel struggled over 13 1/3 innings in his return from Tommy John surgery, and with a projected $5.125MM arbitration salary, Knebel might be deemed too expensive to retain given the risk that he doesn’t get back to his old All-Star form.

Speaking of All-Star relievers, Josh Hader is obviously in no danger of being non-tendered, yet could Hader have already thrown his last pitch in a Milwaukee uniform?  The club is reportedly open to hearing trade offers, but as Stearns said in September, being willing to listen to another team’s proposal is much different than actively exploring deals. “We’ve never really looked to move [Hader], and I don’t really anticipate that changing,” Stearns said at the time.

Some might argue that Devin Williams’ emergence as a shutdown reliever makes Hader at least somewhat expendable, though Williams also serves as an argument for keeping Hader; having two outstanding relievers more fully reinforces a pitching staff that traditionally doesn’t extend starters deep into games in the name of efficient run prevention.

Past Milwaukee staffs have kept a pretty loose definition of “starter” and “reliever” rather than sticking to strict roles, though going into 2021, the Brew Crew has four starters in place.  Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes posted front-of-the-rotation results last season, while advanced metrics indicated that Josh Lindblom pitched better than his 5.16 ERA would indicate.  Adrian Houser struggled down the stretch after some good early outings, but the right-hander looks to have the inside track on a rotation spot.

The fifth spot could be filled internally.  Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta, or Brent Suter are all candidates to take the job themselves, or perhaps they’ll share starts (or work as bulk pitchers behind an opener).  As much as the Brewers like being flexible with their hurlers, they’ll surely look to add more depth, and re-signing Brett Anderson could be a possibility.  Anderson had a good year in 2020, but since he is entering his age-33 season and doesn’t have the big strikeout numbers that many teams covet, he could be available to the Brewers on another one-year deal.  If not Anderson, expect Milwaukee to target similar veterans on short-term contracts.

The Brewers’ first round of financial decisions this offseason resulted in four declined club options, most notably the team passing on their side of a mutual option with long-time star Ryan Braun.  While not an unexpected move given Braun’s age, price tag, and his average hitting numbers, it is still noteworthy that Braun’s 14-season run with the franchise is done — barring another contract, that is.  Braun said in July that he was leaning towards playing in 2021, and if that stance hasn’t changed, it’s possible the two sides could reunite on an inexpensive one-year deal.  There might not be action on this front, of course, until the Brewers know if the DH will be available to National League teams next season.

Further complicating Stearns’ winter business is the lack of certainty at almost every position around the diamond.  The Brewers are looking for almost a lineup-wide rebound.  Each of Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Avisail Garcia, Luis Urias and Narvaez struggled to varying extents, while Lorenzo Cain is expected to return after opting out of the 2020 season just five games into the year.  Yelich, Cain, and Hiura are the clear everyday building blocks, and Garcia will likely stay due to a lack of trade value.  Urias is still part of the Brewers’ future, and his lackluster 2020 numbers were likely impacted by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis that sidelined him for much of Summer Camp.

Where Urias plays next season depends on what the Brewers do with Orlando Arcia.  The former top prospect had a solid offensive showing (.260/.317/.416 in 189 PA) that resulted in a career-best 96 wRC+, but  this could be too little, too late.  Arcia is another player that could plausibly be non-tendered, but since Urias had yet to establish himself at the MLB level, the Brewers could see value in keeping Arcia around to hold the fort at shortstop.

That could leave Urias in line to play some third base, and Milwaukee will look to augment the position with an addition like last winter’s signing of Eric Sogard (ideally with more return on investment, given Sogard’s lack of production).  Players like Jake Lamb, Enrique Hernandez, Asdrubal Cabrera, or Brad Miller may be within the Brewers’ price range, and Gyorko hit well enough that one would imagine the team would be interested in bringing him back.  Of the slightly more expensive options, Tommy La Stella could also be a target.  Even further up the financial ladder, the Brewers would make some sense as a bidder for Ha-Seong Kim once the Korean star is posted.  MLBTR projects Kim to land a $40MM contract, but for a 25-year-old with Kim’s skill set, potential, and multi-positional ability, Milwaukee could decide to take the plunge.

Even moreso than Arcia, Narvaez’s chances of being tendered a contract are helped by a lack of other options, as the Brewers would have to either acquire another backstop or roll with the in-house trio of Manny Pina, Jacob Nottingham, and David Freitas.  Known for his offense more than his defense heading into 2020, Narvez had a reversal of a year that saw his bat falter but his pitch-framing rise to elite levels.  An argument can be made that Milwaukee should hang onto Narvaez just to see what they really have in him, and if his hitting can recover in something of a more normal season.

Vogelbach is the favorite for first base if he is tendered a contract, but given his lack of track record, the Brew Crew could try to take advantage of a depressed free agent market to land a more proven hitter at something of a discount.  Carlos Santana stands out as a big bat whose stock is low coming off a down year in 2020.  Most of the aforementioned third base options also have first base experience, and Braun might also be a candidate for first base if the Brewers re-signed him.

If this seems like a lot of wait-and-see for a team hoping to contend, at least it helps the Brewers that their chief rivals in the very competitive NL Central all have big questions of their own.  Should 2020 prove to be an aberration and Yelich, Cain, Narvaez, and others all hit at something close to their past levels of performance, the Brew Crew will be a better team based on internal improvement alone.  Combine this with hitting on a few more short-term acquisitions, and a fourth straight postseason trip could be in the offing.

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2020-21 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers

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Spencer Patton “Drawing Interest”

By TC Zencka | November 22, 2020 at 10:11pm CDT

Spencer Patton is drawing interest in free agency from MLB and NPB clubs, per MLB Insider Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The Rangers are at least one team that is said to be tracking the market for Patton.

Patton last appeared in the Majors making 16 appearances with the Cubs in 2016. Over 21 1/3 innings for the eventual World Series champs, Patton posted a 5.48 ERA/5.02 FIP with 9.3 K/9 to 5.9 BB/9. He spent the two years prior with the Rangers, for whom he made 36 appearances with a 6.75 ERA/4.54 FIP.

Players returning from overseas have become somewhat of a wild card in recent years, with a number of pitchers re-establishing themselves in the states after stints abroad. Pierce Johnson fit a similar mold last season. Fresh off a stellar season in Japan, Johnson signed a two-year deal worth $5MM guaranteed with the Padres. He delivered in 2020 with a 2.70 ERA/3.14 FIP across 20 innings.

Patton’s immediate numbers aren’t quite as impressive as Johnson’s were, but he nonetheless has been a productive contributor for the past four seasons in Japan. The 32-year-old posted a 4.92 ERA across 57 appearances totaling 53 innings as a reliever for the Yokohama Bay Stars. The right-hander spent four seasons with the Bay Stars with a 3.68 ERA across 205 2/3 innings with 10.6 K/9 to 3.7 BB/9.

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Texas Rangers Spencer Patton

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AL Notes: Rays, Royals, Rangers

By TC Zencka | November 22, 2020 at 9:12pm CDT

The Rays have one clear priority for the offseason, writes MLB Insider Jim Bowden (via Twitter). They’ve let the other 29 teams know: they need catchers. That’s been the case for the Rays most offseasons. Tampa has long been unable to find a long-term solution at the catching position. Rays catchers (Mike Zunino, Michael Perez, and Kevan Smith) finished 25th in the Majors by bWAR in 2020 with -0.3 bWAR. None of the three are currently employed by the Rays, as Perez was selected off waivers by the Pirates, and Zunino and Smith are free agents. Ronaldo Hernandez currently sits atop their depth chart, and while the Rays have high hopes for the slugging 23-year-old, he has yet to appear above High-A. The free agent market isn’t likely to offer a ton of options for the Rays’ price range. Speculatively speaking, if they do go the free agency route, a reunion with Zunino might make the most sense. Other options they could consider include Matt Wieters, Tyler Flowers, Sandy Leon, Robinson Chirinos, and Alex Avila.

  • Bowden (via Twitter) also enumerates the Royals plan for the winter: acquire a starting pitcher, middle-of-the-order bat, and centerfielder. They also want to improve their overall on-base percentage, notes Bowden. The Royals tied with the Mariners for 25th in the Majors with a .309 OBP. A team 7.8 BB% also tied for 25th in the Majors. To this point, Hunter Dozier (.344 OBP) and Salvador Perez (.353 OBP) were the only Kansas City regulars with an on-base percentage over .330. Outfield prospect Khalil Lee might provide an internal solution. The 22-year-old walked at a rate of 11.9% in Double-A in 2019, and the oganization holds him in high regard.
  • The Rangers will give Sherten Apostel a look at first base in the lead-up to the season, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Apostel has come up as a third baseman, though at 6’4″, 235 lbs, there’s at least a question of whether he’d fare better defensively at first. Still, the Rangers believe he can stick at third, per Wilson. The issue is more that Isiah Kiner-Falefa is fresh off a Gold-Glove-winning season, and in the long-term, top prospect Josh Jung profiles for the hot corner. In the short term, Ronald Guzman could be unseated at first after slashing just .230/.308/.417 over 809 plate appearances the past three seasons. His 0.9 bWAR per 650 plate appearances doesn’t scream stability at first. Apostel, 22 in March, got a cup-of-coffee in 2020, though he’s likely to start the year in Triple-A. If he starts hot, however, the Rangers could make room for him at first.
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Free Agent Market Kansas City Royals Notes Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Jim Bowden Ronald Guzman Ronaldo Hernandez Sherten Apostel

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MLBTR Poll: What Should The Rangers Do With Lance Lynn?

By TC Zencka | November 22, 2020 at 6:40pm CDT

Thus far, there’s been little movement on the free agent market. The couple of market-setting moves we have seen, however, involved starting pitchers: namely, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepting $18.9MM qualifying offers, Drew Smyly taking a one-year, $11MM offer from the Braves, and Robbie Ray returning to the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8MM deal. The Smyly and Ray deals say more than either Stroman or Gausman about the current market price for starting pitchers, as those qualifying offers come with a whole set of extenuating circumstances on both sides of the aisle. Regardless, we’re in the very early stages of the offseason and the first few deals don’t always set the pace.

In light of what we’ve seen so far, Lance Lynn’s one-year, $9.3MM deal looks like a more attractive trade piece now than it was even a week ago. But that doesn’t always help grease the wheels. The difficulty in trading a player on a great contract like Lynn is that for the acquiring team, Lynn’s value drops precipitously as the prospect value it takes to acquire him rises. Of course, the Rangers aren’t incentivized to move him without significant and/or talented youth coming back. To oversimplify, trading is hard.

Following a breakout 7.5 bWAR season in 2019, Lynn again posted solid production with a 3.32 ERA across 13 starts totaling a league-leading 84 innings in 2020. Admittedly, Lynn lost about a half mph off his four-seamer, and a career-high 28.1 K% in 2019 fell to 25.9 K% in 2020. That amounts to a difference of roughly 20 strikeouts over a full season.  That’s not a worrisome drop in either velocity or K-rate, but it’s still noteworthy for a guy entering his age-34 season.

Using Fangraphs metrics – which were less bullish on his 2020 than baseball-reference – Lynn’s 4.17 FIP put him on pace for a 3.7 fWAR full-scale season (with a similar workload to 2019). That’s closer to middle-of-the-rotation stalwart than it is unequivocal ace. And yet, brass tacks: that’s valuable.

Potential acquiring teams might look at the number of young players who stepped into roles at the Major League level last season and choose to ride it out with their own cheaper, younger, and yet more volatile assets. Lynn no doubt brings more certainty to a rotation, however, and even his one-year contact can be seen as a positive for a team that values financial flexibility. In this day and age, most teams qualify.

If the Rangers decide to move him, they’ll look to get pitching prospects in return, writes Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Generally speaking, GM Jon Daniels spoke highly of their pool of position player prospects, complimenting their depth in that department. Pitching has long been an area for improvement for Texas, and it makes sense to seek pitching if subtracting a presence like Lynn.

There’s value in keeping Lynn, however. If Daniels is unable to get a blue-chip prospect in return, keeping Lynn isn’t the worst outcome. Besides, the AL West is arguably more wide open than at any point in the last five years. The Houston Astros stranglehold on the division finally lessened in 2020, the A’s could lose shortstop Marcus Semien in free agency, and the Angels are currently pivoting in the front office. The Mariners, meanwhile, have begun to put some solid pieces together, but they’re not a deterrent for Texas. Both are in the same boat, presumably near the bottom of the American League West.

Way-too-early oddsmakers peg the Rangers among the least likely MLB teams to win the World Series with odds around 80-to-1. It’s doubtful whether they have enough pitching beyond Lynn to truly compete, but stranger things have happened. Besides, Rangers’ fans might like to have a pitcher of Lynn’s pedigree in the rotation, even in the event that they struggle to keep pace. It’s easy to say from the outside that the Rangers are best served trading Lynn, but sometimes those living inside the house simply like living there too much to sell it.

So let’s hear from Rangers’ fans. Is it time to take the best prospect package available? Or do you want to see what happens to start the season? If you don’t consider the Rangers your favorite team, we want to hear from you too. There are more possible opinions than what I’m offering below, so do your best to choose the opinion closest to yours, then spell out the difference for us in the comments.

(Poll link for app users)

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Free Agent Market MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Texas Rangers Jon Daniels Lance Lynn

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Angels Add Three To Front Office

By TC Zencka | November 22, 2020 at 5:00pm CDT

New Angels GM Perry Minasian is bringing three of his former co-workers to his new team. Per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter), the Angels will hire Alex Tamin as an assistant GM, Dominic Chiti as a special assistant, and Rick Williams as a scout. All three were formerly employed by the Braves.

Tamin, Rosenthal notes, was also an assistant GM with the Braves, but his move to the Angels still qualifies as a promotion. Minasian, for example, ranked above Tamin with the Braves, despite the pair both holding the title of assistant GM. Minasian was the senior vice president of baseball operations and assistant GM, while Tamin held the sole title of assistant GM for major league operations. Tamin had previously been employed by the Dodgers as their director of baseball operations before moving to the Braves in December of 2017.He has a solid reputation for his work with analytics in player evaluation.

Chiti, meanwhile, was reassigned from his role as director of player development at the end of the 2019 season, the Athletic’s David O’Brien tweeted at the time. Last season, he served as a scouting special assistant, presumably a role similar to the one he’ll take on with the Angels.

Rick Williams was the Rays pitching coach from 1998 to 2000, at which point he joined the front office as a special assistant to the GM. He spent seven years as a scout for the Yankees and joined the Braves in 2014 as a special assistant for pitching development. Williams, Chiti, and Tamin represent the first three hires of Minasian as the new GM of the Angels.

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